RBFX Support

GBPUSD: a temporary rally following weak US data The GBPUSD rate is aggressively declining today after rising on Friday on weak US data. Find out more in our analysis dated 5 August 2024. The GBPUSD currency pair rose by over 0.5% on Friday due to a weak US employment report. This report heightened concerns about a potential recession and increased expectations for a more significant Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Friday’s data revealed that the US economy added just 114,000 jobs in July, falling short of the projected 175,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, reaching the highest level since 2021, while wage growth slowed more than anticipated. According to analysts, if investors focus solely on Friday’s US employment data, this may distort the GBPUSD forecast for today. An average reading over the past three months could provide a more accurate picture. Overall, traders believe that the strengthening of the pound sterling may be temporary. If the released data indicate easing inflation and declining employment in the UK, the Bank of England might ease its monetary policy, which could exert significant pressure on the GBPUSD rate. GBPUSD technical analysis Analysis for 5 August 2024 shows that the GBPUSD pair remains in a downtrend, aiming for 1.2700 as the first target. The price is expected to reach this target level today. Subsequently, it could correct towards 1.2870 (testing from below). Once the correction is complete, a new decline wave might begin, targeting 1.2600. Despite Friday’s strengthening, the pound sterling may weaken due to worsening UK economic indicators and the potential easing of the Bank of England’s monetary policy. Technical indicators suggest that the GBPUSD rate could decline to 1.2700 before correcting towards 1.2870. Read more - GBPUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

USDJPY reaches a new low for the year: a decline is just beginning The USDJPY pair is rapidly falling, with investors having three reasons for this. Find out more in our analysis dated 5 August 2024. USDJPY trading key points The USDJPY pair has fallen to a low not seen since 3 January The market is concerned about a US recession USDJPY forecast for 5 August 2024: 138.10, 149.80, and 142.00 Fundamental analysis The USDJPY rate is plummeting to 142.96. The market is actively engaging in sales for at least three reasons. The first reason is the active exit of investors from carry trade operations. Market participants began to exit short positions in the yen after the Bank of Japan signalled its readiness to tighten monetary conditions. The second reason is concerns about a US recession. Last Friday, the US released a block of weaker-than-expected employment data. Investors are worried that the Federal Reserve might be late in easing monetary conditions, potentially allowing for an economic contraction. The third reason is the increasing appeal of the JPY as a safe-haven asset amid tensions in the Middle East and their potential global implications. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

NZDUSD is in positive territory: the market favours risk The NZDUSD pair has recovered quite well. The market is once again interested in risk. Find out more in our analysis dated 2 August 2024. The NZDUSD rate has noticeably recovered after its previous decline. The pair is hovering around 0.5953 on Friday. July’s decline in the NZDUSD rate was relatively stable, driven by weak reports from China, a general exit of investors from carry trade positions in the Japanese yen, and an unfavourable sentiment towards risky assets. The New Zealand dollar is now recovering amid stabilised demand for risky assets and improved market sentiment. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold a meeting on 14 August. Investors believe there is a 36% likelihood of an interest rate cut at this meeting. Expectations for the October meeting are relatively high, with another reduction in borrowing costs anticipated. NZDUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, the NZDUSD pair has completed a decline wave, reaching 0.5858, and has corrected towards 0.5977 (testing from below). The NZDUSD forecast for today, 2 August 2024, indicates that a consolidation range is forming at the top of a corrective wave. A downward breakout will open the potential for a decline towards 0.5888. If the price breaks below this level, the trend could continue to 0.5802, the first target of the downward wave. The NZDUSD pair has partially recouped its previous decline. Today’s NZDUSD technical analysis suggests the trend may continue to the 0.5888 and 0.5802 target levels. Read more - NZDUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Brent crude oil is trading around 80.00 USD; focus on US employment market data today Brent price is consolidating within a limited range near 80.00 as market participants await US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data. Find out more in the Brent analysis for today, 2 August 2024. Brent trading key points US data: the market awaits employment market statistics today Brent forecast for 2 August 2024: 82.80 and 78.00 Fundamental analysis Brent quotes halted their decline as part of a downward correction after reaching a local low of 78.00. This week’s US oil stock data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a decrease in oil inventories by 4.49 and 3.43 million barrels, respectively. Today, market participants are awaiting the release of US July employment statistics, which will reveal nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. Oil prices will likely be influenced by the reaction of the US stock market to employment data: a rise in the stock market will help strengthen Brent’s price, while a decline would push prices lower. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

AUDUSD declines further following a correction The AUDUSD pair is falling despite improved trade balance and increased commodity price index. Find out more in our analysis dated 1 August 2024. The balance of trade reflects the difference between the monetary value of exports and imports. An increase in exports indicates economic development, while import volumes indicate domestic demand. Positive trade balance readings, above both the expected and previous values, are considered a positive factor for the national currency. Australia’s trade balance has increased to 5.589 billion, highlighting economic development and potentially positively impacting the AUDUSD rate. The commodity price index shows changes in sales of exported goods. Rising prices increase returns on exports and impact the trade balance. Although the current reading is negative, the index has increased from its previous level, which is generally considered positive for the national currency. The PMI shows the country’s production activity level over the previous period. A reading above 50.0 indicates economic growth, while below 50.0 signals a decline. The index is currently projected to be 0.3 points higher than the previous reading, which may theoretically be considered positive. However, as the index remains below 50.0, it shows negative results. Although today’s AUDUSD forecast based on fundamental analysis appears favourable for the Australian dollar, it does not prevent the currency pair from declining. AUDUSD technical analysis The H4 chart shows that the AUDUSD pair maintains its downward momentum towards the local target of 0.6473. The AUDUSD rate is expected to reach this target today, 1 August 2024. Subsequently, a correction could follow, aiming for 0.6610 (testing from below). Once this correction is complete, another decline wave could develop, targeting 0.6430. Overall, fundamental data aligns with the AUDUSD indicator-based technical analysis, suggesting that the downtrend might continue to the 0.6473 and 0.6430 levels. Read more - AUDUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Gold (XAUUSD) rises after the Fed’s meeting and comments from Chair Jerome Powell The XAUUSD price increased to 2,458 USD following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and accompanying comments. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 1 August 2024. XAUUSD trading key points Market focus: The Federal Reserve chair confirmed a potential rate cut in September; the market awaits Friday’s US employment data Current trend: upward price momentum is underway XAUUSD forecast for 1 August 2024: 2,458 and 2,430 Fundamental analysis XAUUSD quotes have reversed upwards, showing steady growth after the US Federal Reserve’s meeting and subsequent speech by its chair, Jerome Powell. As expected, the key interest rate remained at 5.5% at this meeting, with all 12 FOMC members unanimously agreeing on the decision. In his remarks, the Federal Reserve chair noted that the US economy was approaching a point where monetary policy easing might be appropriate and hinted that a rate cut could occur in September. Gold reacted to Powell’s comments by rising to 2,458 USD per troy ounce. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

USDCAD is correcting: investors await signals from the Federal Reserve and the Canadian economy The USDCAD rate is declining on Wednesday following a protracted rise amid expectations of the Federal Reserve’s decision and falling oil prices. Find out more in our analysis dated 31 July 2024. The USDCAD rate reached 1.3863 on Monday, marking the pair’s eight-month low. Investors attribute this decline to anticipating the Federal Reserve’s decision and falling oil prices amid concerns about sluggish oil demand from China. The USDCAD rate continues to tumble on 31 July 2024, testing the 1.3840 support level. The latest CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission) data reveals a notable increase in bearish positions on the Canadian currency. Speculators are betting on a further decline in the Canadian dollar to a record level. As of 23 July, net short positions increased to 161.6 thousand contracts from 132.5 thousand a week ago. Investors expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but anticipate a signal for an imminent cut. Traders will also focus on Canada’s monthly GDP data, which is due for release today. Analysts note that prolonged one-way movements in the currency market rarely exceed ten trading sessions. Therefore, investors are likely to begin closing short positions in the Canadian dollar soon, which could potentially push the USDCAD rate down. USDCAD technical analysis USDCAD technical analysis for 31 July 2024 shows that the pair has completed a growth wave, reaching 1.3864. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. Today, the rate is expected to decline to 1.3828 before rising to 1.3844 (testing from below). Subsequently, a decline wave might develop, aiming for 1.3793 as the first target of the downtrend. Investors anticipate the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates and closely monitor Canada’s GDP data. Closing short positions in the Canadian dollar may lead to further declines in the USDCAD rate. Technical indicators for today’s USDCAD forecast suggest a decline wave towards 1.3792. Read more - USDCAD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

USDJPY plummets: the market had been anticipating the BoJ’s decision The USDJPY pair is falling rapidly. The Bank of Japan has done its utmost to support the yen. Find out more in our analysis dated 31 July 2024. USDJPY trading key points The Bank of Japan raised the interest rate to 0.25% The USDJPY rate is declining rapidly USDJPY forecast for 31 July 2024: 151.26 and 150.77 Fundamental analysis The Japanese yen maintains its upward trajectory, which began a little earlier. The market had anticipated the outcome of the Bank of Japan’s meeting. The USDJPY rate is declining. Japan’s interest rate increased by 25 basis points to 0.25% per annum, up from 0%. Additionally, the BoJ announced plans to reduce bond purchases in the second half of the year. This was the most anticipated outcome of the meeting. In its comments, the Bank of Japan noted that inflation risks for this year and the next have increased. Consumption in the economy is considered stable despite rising prices, and wage growth is accelerating. This is a significant achievement for the Bank of Japan, as wages have been relatively stagnant for a long time. Japan’s GDP is expected to increase by 0.6% in 2024, with the economy expanding by 1.0% in 2025. Core inflation is projected to be 2.5% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

USDCHF is poised for growth; the franc is retreating rapidly The USDCHF pair has been rising, with this trend persisting for the third consecutive day due to the strength of the US dollar. Find out more in our analysis dated 30 July 2024. The USDCHF pair has risen for three consecutive days and is now approaching 0.8866. This movement follows a fairly noticeable decline in the pair in July. The US dollar is clearly rebounding, supported by forecasts that the US Federal Reserve will keep the interest rate unchanged at today’s meeting. The rate is expected to remain within the 5.25-5.50% range. Investors are primarily anticipating signals regarding the next meeting scheduled for September. The USDCHF pair is forced to react to external factors. However, Switzerland’s domestic statistics are not robust enough to capture investor attention. Today, Switzerland will release the report on the KOF leading indicators index for July, which is expected to decrease slightly to 102.6 points from the previous 102.7. USDCHF technical analysis On the H4 chart, the USDCHF pair continues its correction towards 0.8888. Today, 30 July 2024, a rise to 0.8870 is expected, followed by a decline to 0.8833 (testing from above). Subsequently, the USDCHF rate could rise to 0.8888, with the correction potentially extending to 0.8900. Once the correction is complete, a new decline wave could begin, aiming for 0.8761 as the wave’s main target. The USDCHF pair has been rising for the third consecutive day. Technical indicators for today’s USDCHF forecast suggest a further correction towards 0.8888, followed by a decline to 0.8761. Read more - USDCHF Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

EURUSD may decline further The EURUSD rate corrected on Tuesday following an aggressive decline a day earlier. Why does the market remain cautious? Find out more in the analysis dated 30 July 2024. EURUSD trading key points The market awaits the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday for potential interest rate cut signals Today, traders will focus on the June job openings and July Consumer Confidence Index EURUSD forecast for 30 July 2024: 1.0800 and 1.0775 Fundamental analysis The EURUSD pair remains under pressure, trading around 1.0815. The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, following which the base rate will likely remain unchanged but may provide hints about a rate reduction in September. Traders believe that if no clear signal is given about a rate cut, this may help strengthen the US dollar. Despite higher-than-expected US GDP growth rates in Q2, the likelihood of monetary policy easing remains high. Although inflation has slowed, it continues to be the regulator’s concern. Today, investors will focus on June’s job openings data and July’s Consumer Confidence Index. The long-awaited July employment report will be released on Friday, significantly impacting traders’ expectations about the Federal Reserve’s future policy. Overall, market participants are not inclined to take active action as they await the central bank’s dovish decision. In this situation, the EURUSD rate may decline further. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

EURUSD continues to rise: risk appetite supports buyers The EURUSD pair is rising. The week begins quietly, with the US Federal Reserve meeting lying ahead. Find out more in our forecast dated 29 July 2024. The EURUSD pair climbs to 1.0859 on Monday. The focus will be on the US Federal Reserve meeting this week. The Fed must maintain all the fundamentals for a September interest rate cut. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (core PCE) price index rose by 0.1% m/m in June after stabilising in May. The indicator increased by 2.5% year-over-year compared to the May reading of 2.6%. All this aligned with expectations. However, a further decline would bolster confidence that the Fed will reduce the rate quickly. The Federal Reserve uses this inflation measure to make its monetary decisions. EURUSD technical analysis On the EURUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range continues to develop around 1.0850 with no clear trend. A rise to 1.0871 remains relevant today, 29 July 2024. Subsequently, the price could fall to 1.0833 and then rise to 1.0874. A price surge to 1.0886 is also possible. This entire growth structure is viewed as a correction of the previous decline wave. Once it is complete, a new decline wave is expected to start, aiming for 1.0820 and potentially continuing to the local targets of 1.0777 and 1.0760. Although the EURUSD pair maintained its recovery momentum, it is temporary. The EURUSD forecast for today aligns with technical indicators, suggesting a further corrective wave towards (at least) 1.0874. Once completed, the EURUSD rate is expected to decline to the targets of 1.0818, 1.0777, and 1.0760. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

USDJPY falls: the market awaits BoJ interest rate hike The USDJPY rate is declining after rebounding from the 154.65 resistance level. Find out more about market expectations ahead of the BoJ and Federal Reserve meetings in our analysis dated 29 July 2024. USDJPY trading key points The BoJ is expected to raise the interest rate by 10 basis points The market awaits Federal Reserve interest rate cut signals for September USDJPY forecast for 29 July 2024: 151.31, 154.50, and 157.10 Fundamental analysis The Japanese yen is strengthening today, bolstered by market expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike. Investors hope the central bank will take action to curb inflation. Markets forecast that the BoJ will raise the interest rate by 10 basis points to 0.1% at the upcoming meeting. According to analysts, if the central bank does not increase rates, it will be forced to resort to a more aggressive quantitative tightening policy to prevent sharp fluctuations in the USDJPY rate following the announcement of the decision. Both the BoJ and the US Federal Reserve meetings are scheduled for Wednesday. The decisions of these central banks will significantly impact the movements of the USDJPY currency pair. While investors expect the Bank of Japan to raise the interest rate, they are also looking for signals from the Federal Reserve about a potential rate cut in September. Traders note that the USDJPY pair was overvalued, and the current dynamics do not favour the US dollar. Any signs of the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy may significantly push down the dollar-yen rate. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

AUDUSD sell-offs have ended: investors await inflation data The AUDUSD pair halted its decline. The AUD rate experienced its worst week since November. For a detailed analysis, please refer to our forecast dated 26 July 2024. The AUDUSD pair has stabilised after a massive decline, hovering around 0.6552. The fall has been observed for nine consecutive trading sessions. This week will be the worst for the AUD since November last year, with losses of about 2%. The decline of the Australian dollar was driven by a global sell-off of risky assets, the unwinding of carry trades against the yen, and weak economic data from China, Australia’s major trading partner. Next week, Australia will release Q2 2024 inflation data, which will likely provide investors with more insight into future monetary policy actions of the Reserve Bank of Australia. AUDUSD technical analysis On the AUDUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range has formed around 0.6610. The AUDUSD rate, breaking below the range, reached the wave’s local target of 0.6512. A correction is expected today, 26 July 2024, aiming for 0.6610 (testing from below) and followed by another decline wave towards 0.6468. Once the price reaches this level, the AUDUSD pair is expected to see a new growth structure or a consolidation range, potentially continuing to 0.6420. The AUDUSD pair appears weak following a wave of sell-offs. The indicator-based AUDUSD technical analysis suggests a corrective wave towards 0.6610 and a new decline wave towards the 0.6468 and 0.6420 targets. Read more - AUDUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

EURUSD: investors await inflation data The EURUSD rate is slightly rising after rebounding from the 1.0830 support level. Will the US dollar strengthen? Find out in our analysis dated 26 July 2024. EURUSD trading key points US GDP rose by 2.8% year-over-year in Q2 Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index fell to 87 points Traders focus on US inflation data EURUSD forecast for 26 July 2024: 1.0874, 1.0818, and 1.0777 Fundamental analysis The forecast for 26 July 2024 shows that the US economy continues to grow in Q2 2024, albeit at a slowing pace. According to preliminary data from the US Department of Commerce, GDP increased by 2.8% year-over-year, slightly exceeding analysts’ expectations. However, this is the lowest reading in the past several quarters, indicating US economic slowdown amid tightening monetary policy. Markets continue to price in a 100% chance of a Federal Reserve cut in September, with expectations for at least one more cut by the end of the year. Meanwhile, Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index continues to decline, reaching 87 points in July, the lowest reading since February 2024. This reflects rising concerns of German businesses about the country’s economic outlook and exerts pressure on the euro rate. Today, traders focus on the PCE price index report, a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve. Previous data showed that inflation eased in Q2 but remained elevated. The overall PCE index rose by 2.6%, while the core index, which reflects steady inflation trends, increased by 2.9%. This data indicates persisting inflationary pressure in the economy and confirms traders’ expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

USDCAD rises following Bank of Canada interest rate cut The USDCAD pair continues to rise following a reduction in Canadian interest rates. Positive US data may cause the Canadian dollar to lose ground further. Find out more in our analysis dated 25 July 2024. The Canadian dollar is losing ground against the US dollar for the second consecutive week. The Bank of Canada lowered the interest rate by 0.25% to 4.5%. Consequently, the USDCAD rate has risen further, approaching April’s highs. This week’s forecast of economic indicators is not favourable for the Canadian dollar. Average weekly earnings are expected to decline further, following decreases in the previous two reports. The decline in earnings could be attributed to rising unemployment, a negative economic factor. Previous data show a decrease in manufacturing sales to 0.4%. Growth is unlikely in the current period, with a decline appearing more probable. US initial jobless claims are projected to reach 237,000, lower than the previous figure. This suggests a decrease in unemployment, which could positively impact the US dollar and drive the USDCAD rate higher. USDCAD technical analysis The forecast for 25 July 2024 shows that the USDCAD pair has completed a decline wave, reaching 1.3740. The market has formed a consolidation range around this level. With an upward breakout, the wave could extend to the local target of 1.3825. Once the price reaches this target, a correction is possible, aiming for 1.3740 (testing from above). Subsequently, a new growth wave could start, targeting 1.3892. The interest rate cut in Canada and technical analysis for today’s USDCAD forecast suggest a potential uptrend towards 1.3825, which could extend to 1.3892. Read more - USDCAD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

EURUSD declines: the market favours the US dollar The EURUSD pair continues to decline. Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s decision on monetary policy easing. For a detailed analysis, please refer to our forecast dated 25 July 2024. EURUSD trading key points The EURUSD pair is falling due to the strength of the US dollar The Federal Reserve is expected to provide clarity on its intentions for September EURUSD forecast for 25 July 2024: 1.0822 and 1.0777 Fundamental analysis Yesterday’s US PMI data was mixed. Markit’s preliminary services PMI for July increased to 56.0 points from 55.3, while the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.5 points from 51.6. Key news this week for EURUSD includes the upcoming release of the US Q2 2024 GDP estimate this evening. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will also be published on Friday. This is one of the most crucial reports for the Federal Reserve, based on which the regulator assesses the inflationary environment. The US economy is expected to have expanded by 2.0% in April-June compared to only 1.4% in Q1. The anticipated Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for next week. Few expect the Fed to make significant decisions at this meeting; all predictions are for September. However, the Federal Reserve’s remarks regarding its September plans could be more detailed in this case. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

GBPUSD may weaken by year-end amid the BoE policy The GBPUSD is falling for the second consecutive session. Read in the analysis for 24 July 2024 how the upcoming Bank of England’s decision may affect the pound. UK retail sales unexpectedly decreased by 1.2% in June, significantly exceeding the projected 0.4% decline. Combined with slowing wage growth and inflation reaching the Bank of England’s 2.0% target, this drop increases the likelihood of an interest rate cut in August. Expectations of such action already exert pressure on the GBPUSD rate as an interest rate cut typically weakens the national currency. Unexpectedly robust service inflation data have supported the sterling pound rate for some time, forcing the Bank of England to postpone an interest rate cut, making UK bonds more appealing to investors. However, Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING, believes the pound could weaken by year-end since the BoE will likely lower the rate. Analysts predict that the Bank of England may have three interest rate cuts this year, but only if the UK’s economic situation is favourable. The first decision is expected to be announced at a Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 1 August 2024. According to traders, easing the monetary policy will push down the pound sterling. GBPUSD technical analysis Analysis for 24 July 2024 shows that the GBPUSD pair is forming a consolidation range around 1.2911, which is expected to extend down to 1.2879 today. Subsequently, the price could rise to 1.2911 (testing from below) before the decline wave likely continues to 1.2777, representing the first target. Today’s GBPUSD forecast shows that the likelihood of a decline in the British pound persists due to the Bank of England’s potential monetary policy easing measures. Technical indicators suggest a fall in the GBPUSD rate to the 1.2879, 1.2850, and 1.2777 targets. Read more - GBPUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Brent declined to 80.00, with the market focusing on EIA data today Brent crude oil prices are declining for the fifth consecutive trading session. Read about it in the analysis for 24 July 2024. Brent trading key points The market awaits EIA data: inventories are expected to have increased by 0.70 million barrels Brent forecast for 24 July 2024: 82.80 and 76/80 Fundamental analysis Brent continues to fall as part of a downward correction, reaching 80.00. Today, market participants await the release of US oil stock data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) during the American session. Inventories are projected to have risen by 0.70 million barrels. A significant divergence between the actual data and the forecast may drive further movement of Brent quotes. US oil stock data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) was released yesterday. According to the statistics, US hydrocarbon reserves decreased by 3.90 million barrels last week, while the forecast suggested a decline of only 2.47 million. As a result, Brent prices received support and, halting their decline, stabilised around 80.00-81.00. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Gold (XAUUSD) is correcting after reaching a new all-time high Gold prices are declining after reaching an all-time high of 2,483 USD per troy ounce. Gold failed to hold near the all-time high of 2,483 USD reached last week. Buyers appear to have decided to lock in profits, causing XAUUSD quotes to reverse direction and fall below the 2,400 level. The decline in gold prices is driven by the current strengthening of the US dollar against major currencies. An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may provide support for gold. XAUUSD technical analysis The XAUUSD H4 chart shows an ongoing downward correction from the historical maximum of 2,483 USD. The quotes are currently hovering around 2,388, which coincides with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level from the previous upward movement. If bears gain a foothold below 2,388, XAUUSD quotes can be expected to fall further to the 2,368 support level, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. At this level, bulls might attempt a counterattack to reverse the trend upward. Gold is declining in a downward correction after reaching the historical high of 2,483 last week. Bulls may attempt to reverse the price trend upward at 2,368-2,388 support levels. Read more - XAUUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Positive expectations for the eurozone economy support EURUSD The EURUSD rate slightly rose on Tuesday, 23 July 2024, trading above the key support level of 1.0875. EURUSD trading key points The ECB’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged and Lagarde’s remarks about a “wide open” September meeting continue to support the euro Eurozone, Germany, and France PMIs are expected to improve, and consumer confidence in the eurozone is projected to peak EURUSD price targets: 1.0870, 1.0820, and 1.0777 Fundamental analysis The European Central Bank’s decision to maintain the current monetary policy and Christine Lagarde’s statement that the upcoming verdict on 12 September remains open, continue to bolster the euro. Eurozone, Germany, and France PMI data are expected to show a more substantial decline in manufacturing and further growth in the services sector. Additionally, the consumer confidence level in the eurozone is projected to reach its highest level since February 2022. The GfK consumer climate and Ifo business climate indicators are also expected to improve in Germany. Investors believe that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September and may do so twice by the end of the year amid slowing US inflation. US key economic indicators such as PMI, GDP, and the PCE price index are due this week and may heighten pressure on the US dollar if they are worse than forecasted. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Trump takes the lead, but the USD remains hesitant: all eyes on politics The EURUSD pair is consolidating. Investors need to assess crucial changes in the US political race. The EURUSD pair stopped at 1.0888 on Monday. The market is extremely cautious as the weekend brought unexpected news that needs to be analysed and weighed. The incumbent US President, Joe Biden Jr., announced his decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential campaign. He supported Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement. However, it is still unclear whether Harris can gain the required support as the new Democratic nominee. Former US President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, is far ahead. Although Harris can be a strong politician and a presidential nominee, the question remains whether this is enough to change the results of preliminary surveys. EURUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has reached the decline wave’s local target of 1.0875. Today, 22 July 2024, a correction was formed, aiming for 1.0902 (testing from below). The decline wave is expected to continue to 1.0860, representing the first estimated target. After reaching this target, the price could rise to 1.0900. Subsequently, another decline wave could develop, aiming for 1.0820 and potentially continuing to 1.0777. The EURUSD pair has become became centre of US political news. Technical indicators suggest a further corrective wave, with a target at 1.0777. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

JPY is rising amid expectations of BoJ policy tightening The USDJPY rate declines on Monday morning, 22 July 2024, after a two-day growth. The current USDJPY exchange rate is 156.55. USDJPY trading key points Japan’s inflation continues to rise The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates next week USDJPY price targets: 158.28, 154.80, and 154.66 Fundamental analysis The Japanese yen is rising after rebounding from the 157.60 resistance level. Investors expect the BoJ to raise interest rates next week amid rising inflation. Consequently, the USDJPY rate has fallen by more than 2% over the past two weeks. Investors believe the Japanese government is already intervening in the currency market to support the national currency rate. The Bank of Japan’s data shows that the authorities could have purchased about 6 trillion yen a week ago. Although Japan’s inflation remained at 2.8% in June, the core index, excluding food and energy prices, jumped to 2.6%. This data reinforces traders’ view that the BoJ may start tightening monetary policy despite potential risks for the country’s weak economy. The possibility of the yen’s rate rising further in the near term persists. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

AUD falls again, marking the fifth consecutive day of decline The AUDUSD pair continues to lose ground. The market is selling off risky assets. The Australian dollar, in the pair with its US counterpart, has been steadily and uninterruptedly falling for five days. The AUDUSD pair reached 0.6698, the lowest level in the last two weeks. The sell-off is associated with the strengthening of the US dollar. According to recent data, Australia’s unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1%. At the same time, June’s job growth is notable, indicating heightened tension in the employment sector, which elevates concerns about an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Investors are now pricing in a 20% possibility of an RBA interest rate hike in August, whereas the figure did not exceed 12% a couple of days ago. AUDUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, the AUDUSD pair has completed a decline wave, reaching 0.6699. A consolidation range is expected to form above this level today, 19 July 2024. With an upward breakout, a growth wave could start, aiming for 0.6750 and potentially continuing to 0.6811. The Australian dollar came under pressure from the USD and employment market data. Technical analysis for the AUDUSD pair suggests a growth wave to the 0.6750 and 0.6811 targets. Read more - AUDUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Brent prices fall, driven by a sell-off of risky assets Brent crude oil prices are dropping again. The market has experienced sales growth amid falling prices for risky assets and the US dollar strengthening. Brent trading key points Brent prices are falling due to pressure from the US dollar China’s plenum did not outline measures to support the economy Brent price targets: 85.00, 85.40, 86.90, and 88.00 Fundamental analysis The commodity market was again under pressure, with a barrel of Brent crude oil falling to 84.73 USD on Friday. Investors took a more cautious stance when assessing the global economic outlook, resulting in sales in stock and commodity market sales, which contributed to the growth of the US dollar. Statistics showing stronger-than-expected growth in July’s industrial production and increased jobless claims amid seasonality also bolstered the USD. Commodity goods are generally believed to be less profitable to purchase amid USD growth. Chinese news failed to support the oil sector. China’s third plenum ended yesterday without providing any guidelines on measures to revive the country’s economy. As China is the world’s largest oil consumer, positive signals from this side could support commodity prices. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

GDP stays afloat despite fundamental data A decrease in the number of claims for unemployment benefits and a stable unemployment rate increase the chances of the British pound strengthening. Average earnings in the UK (including May bonuses) decreased by 0.2% from the previous value, in line with the forecast. The UK claimant count change exceeded expectations but was lower than the previous reading. These data did not significantly affect the GBPUSD rate, with the pair continuing to trade around 1.3000. The unemployment level remained flat, aligning with the forecast and having little impact on the price. Data, including US initial jobless claims, is due after the US trading session opens. A preliminary forecast shows an increase to 229,000, which could negatively impact the US dollar. GBPUSD technical analysis Analysis of 18 July 2024 shows that the GBPUSD pair has reached the growth wave’s local target of 1.3040 (adjusted for an extension). A correction towards 1.2945 could start today. Once the correction is complete, the price might rise to 1.2990. Subsequently, a decline wave is expected, aiming for 1.2850 and potentially continuing to 1.2800. Fundamental data and technical indicators suggest a decline in the GBPUSD rate to the 1.2945, 1.2850, and 1.2800 targets. Read more - GBPUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team