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Analysts: comments on EUR/USD UBS (bullish):"Resistance is at $1.3569, a break above here would open the way to major resistance at $1.3711. Support is at $1.3462 ahead of $1.3392”. Commerzbank (bullish): "Initial support remains the $1.3453 (August high). Only a close below here would alleviate immediate upside pressure and signal a slide back to $1.3278/1.3168 (55- and 200-day MA). We would not rule out a bull attempt to $1.3585 and even $1.3730". Westpac (moderately bullish): "We continue to target $1.3700. However, the EU/US data pulse remains structurally more upbeat for the US dollar. Important in this view will be how quickly the German coalition is formed, the colour of this coalition and policy towards Europe. Next week's ECB meeting will be important too. All up, we favour beginning to look to build short EUR positions." Chart. Weekly EUR/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/666

Commerzbank: GBP/USD capped Commerzbank strategists suggest that GBP/USD has found short-term support at $1.5954. However, they expect the current September high at $1.6160 to cap the upside. Analysts point that the market needs to close below $1.5735 (3-month uptrend) in order to confirm that it has topped short term and to trigger losses to $1.5430 and $1.5104. Chart. Daily GBP/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/665

ANZ: AUD/USD could go higher ANZ strategists remain short-term bullish for AUD/USD as long as the $0.9380 support holds. They see the current Aussie strength as corrective, but concede that ther upside could extend to $0.9720. Drop below $0.9380 would open the way to $0.9200. "The squeeze above channel resistance reached $0.9510 (38.2% of the fall since April) faster than anticipated and so raises the potential for continued gains through the dubious “head and shoulders” target of $0.9600/20 for a possible 50% squeeze to $0.9720." Chart. Daily AUD/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/657

Danske Bank: outlook for EUR/USD According to Danske Bank strategists, the US dollar is likely to weaken in the coming month following the decision by the Fed to postpone tapering of its QE programme. They now see EUR/USD at $1.3300 (previously $1.3100) in 3-month time but could see the pair as high as $1.3700 in 1 month if early October data prove disappointing. “Beyond a 3-month horizon, the Fed is likely to have laid out a tapering plan, which should induce a shift back in focus to the fact that the Fed will still be a first-mover on reining in easing among major central banks. This should pave the way for a move in relative rates weighing on EUR and we have kept a downward profile on EUR/USD on the medium-term horizon but now see the pair at $1.3000 in 6 months ($1.2800), heading lower towards $1.27 in 12 months ($1.2500).” http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/656

Stock market update Data: Bloomberg Time: EST (GMT-5) http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/547

September 24: Asian session It was a calm session on the currency markets with an empty economic calendar. Yesterday the greenback weakened as the Fed’s member Dudley said the economy was still to week to taper bond purchases. USD/JPY has recovered to 99.00 today after a dip to 98.65. USD/CHF is consolidating around $0.9100. Asian markets were mostly trading in the negative zone. Aussie and kiwi were the biggest losers of the session as declines in global stocks reduced demand for high-yielding currencies. AUD/USD dropped to $0.9395 before recovering some ground. NZD/USD fell to $0.8315. USD/CAD is consolidating around 1.0280. Canada will release retail sales data at 12:30 GMT. EUR/USD strengthened to $1.3500 after a consolidation below this mark. Yesterday the euro weakened after the ECB Draghi said the bank is ready to launch a third round LTRO if necessary. The market is now waiting for the German Ifo business climate index at 8:00 GMT. GBP/USD is trading under slight pressure around $1.6030. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/546

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USD/JPY: Elliot wave analysis Daily. Corrective wave of 2 is still forming. Chart. Daily USD/JPY H4. Presumable we are witnessing the formation of the wave (E) of which is the final wave of the horizontal triangle. Chart. H4 USD/JPY H1. The wave (E) is taking form of a-b-c Zigzag. When the corrective wave b is over, we expect upside impulse move to resume in the wave c. When the wave (E) is complete, we’ll see a downtrend in the wave [c] of 2. H1. Daily USD/JPY Roman Petuchov for FX Bazooka http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/652

GBP/USD: Elliot wave analysis Weekly. Corrective wave [iI] will soon be over. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily. The wave [iI] may have taken form of a flat. The final rising impulse wave V is now enfolding. Chart. Daily GBP/USD H4. There are 2 scenarios. According to the first one, we are now witnessing the formation of a corrective wave [4]. When it’s over, the upside movement in the wave [5] of V will resume as it’s shown at the picture. However, there’s a chance that the wave V is already complete. In this case the maximum won’t be renewed and we’ll see a decline in the near term. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Roman Petuchov for FX Bazooka http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/651

EUR/USD: Elliot wave analysis Weekly. EUR/USD will soon finish corrective wave (b) of [2]. Chart. Weekly EUR/USD Daily. The wave (b) took form of a widening horizontal triangle. We are now witnessing the formation of the e, the final wave of this triangle which has taken form of the double Zigzag. Chart. Daily EUR/USD H4. The wave [y] of e represents a simple Zigzag. In Zigzags the waves tend to be equal, so after the local sideways movement is over, the advance will resume as shown at the picture. After that there may be a new downtrend in the wave (С) of [2] (see the first chart). Chart. H4 EUR/USD Roman Petuchov for FX Bazooka http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/650

EUR/USD: buy the pullbacks Buy EUR/USD on the dips - this is what the analysts suggest. Credit Agricole: There is little scope for investors’ Fed monetary policy expectations to drive the USD considerably higher any time soon. On the contrary, there may be scope for expectations about any tapering of QE to be delayed into next year should incoming US growth data fail to surprise positively. Elsewhere, we see scope for euro zone business activity to remain constructive. We expect dips in pairs such as EUR/USD to remain a buy. UBS: As a reaction to the recent sharp advance, there is scope for a short-term setback to unwind. Support is at $1.3498 ahead of $1.3392. Resistance is at$ 1.3569, a break above which would open the way to major resistance at $1.3711. ANZ: The potential has increased for a much earlier than anticipated test of this year’s $1.3710 high and an area of measured targets in the $1.3800/00 area. The current structure suggests that dips should be seen as buying opportunities, though this is dependent on remaining above $1.3445 (ideally $1.3475). Any deeper pullbacks will threaten the structure of recent gains with a break below $1.3400. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/649

Trade signals from Danske Bank EUR/USD: Long at $1.3485 with a target of $1.3711 and a stop at $1.3409 USD/JPY: Long at 99.40 with a target of 101.05 and a stop at 98.75 GBP/USD: Long at $1.5990 with a target of $1.6164 and a stop at $1.5955 USD/CHF: Short at 0.9359 with a target of 0.9023 and a stop at 0.9227 AUD/USD: Long at $0.9370 with a target of $0.9530 and a stop at $0.9330 USD/CAD: Short at 1.0275 with a target of 1.0137 and a stop at 1.0340 * The bank applies trailing stop orders http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/648

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3400, $1.3500; USD/JPY: 98.00, 99.00, 99.40, 99.50, 99.60, 99.90, 100.00,101.00; AUD/USD: $0.9350, $0.9450; NZD/USD: $0.8370; AUD/JPY: 93.50. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/539

Sep. 23: Asian session EUR/USD is consolidating in the tight $1.3535/20 range. The pair is, therefore, near a 7-month high of $1.3570 renewed on Thursday. According to the results of the German election, Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc took 41.5% of the vote vs. 25.7% for the Social Democrats. Despite the strong result of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Merkel’s coalition with the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) lacks the overall majority, so they will possibly form a coalition with the Social Democrats. We’ll watch how the market digests the election results. Don’t miss the PMI releases of the euro zone’s leading economies (07:00-08:00 GMT). The ECB President Mario Draghi will speak in the European Parliament at 13:00 GMT. GBP/USD rose above the $1.6000 mark, remaining capped at $1.6030. USD/JPY is trading on the downside, though supported by the 100-day MA at 99.05. Japanese banks are closed in observance of Autumnal Equinox Day. US dollar fell versus yen as markets assess when the Fed will reduce the pace of its bond purchases. The FOMC voting member William C. Dudley is scheduled to speak today at 13:30 GMT. On Friday St. Louis Fed President James Bullard indicated an October move is possible. USD/CHF is trading above 0.9100, up from 0.9089. AUD/USD rose by about 60 pips to $0.9430. Aussie rose as Chinese HSBC flash manufacturing PMI increased from 50.1 to 51.2, slightly above the forecast of 50.9. NZD/USD recovered by about 30 pips from $0.8340. USD/CAD opened with a bullish gap, but then slipped to 1.0290. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/538

FBS: outlook for EUR/USD EUR/USD is consolidating above $1.3500 after a big move it made on Wednesday on the Fed’s inaction. Euro made a new high yesterday, though the daily candle was small. Euro’s oversold in the short term, so we see a high probability of some correction, to the middle of the bid Wednesday’s candle, August high and Kijun-sen ($1.3452/1.3428). Then the bulls may initiate another attempt to the upside, to $1.3580. Note, however, that there are risks associated with German elections taking place this weekend and potential dovish comments from the ECB. This will be a thing to consider before going long on the pair. Chart. H4 EUR/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/645

EUR/USD: watch German elections This Sunday (Sept. 22) will be marked by German elections. This is an important even as its outcome could change the future of Germany and the euro zone. According to the latest polls, Angela Merkel’s conservative lead has narrowed: the Chancellor and her conservative CDU/CSU coalition would receive 38% of votes, while the coalition’s junior partner, the Free Democrats (FDP), would get 6% of votes – all together that’s not enough for a majority in parliament. The main opposition social democrat party (the SPD) led by Peer Steinbrueck was supported by 28% of respondents, while the Green party had 8%. The challenge for EUR is that anti-euro Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) party it the 5% threshold enough to gain a seat in parliament, the poll showed. If the election results will repeat the polls, Merkel would likely return to serve a third time in office but could be forced into forming a “grand coalition” with her rival Steinbrueck and his center-left party. Some say that this broad coalition may be “more constructive and EUR-friendly”. However, other analysts predict the elections will likely mean “more of the same” in terms of Germany’s policies towards its debt-ridden southern euro zone neighbors. The main opinion is that German election, Italian political problems, the talk about the need of a new bailout for Greece and the ECB’s easing bias will limit the gains of EUR/USD from here. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/535

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: USD/JPY: 98.50, 99.35, 99.40, 99.50, 99.75, 100.00, 100.50, 101.00; EUR/USD: $1.3400, $1.3475, $1.3500; GBP/USD: $1.6000, $1.6100, $1.6200; AUD/USD: $0.9440, $0.9450, $0.9460, $0.9550; USD/CAD: 1.0250, 1.0325, 1.0340, 1.0380; NZD/USD: 0.8300; EUR/AUD: 1.4300; AUD/JPY: 92.00. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/534

Sep. 20: Asian session USD held above a 7-month low against a basket of currencies on Friday after investors unwound some of the bearish trades put on in reaction to the Federal Reserve’s shock decision to maintain its massive bond-buying stimulus. Watch US political scene (budget discussion) and speeches by Fed’s board members (16:30-16:55 GMT), though nothing concrete is likely to be resolved or said. EUR/USD is little changed on the $1.3530 area. The European Commission will release today an index of the euro zone’s household confidence. According to the forecasts, the indicator rose from minus 15.6 in the previous month to minus 14.5 in September – the highest level since July 2011. GBP/USD got support at $1.6022 after its correction down on Thursday. Britain will release public sector net borrowing at 08:30 GMT – analysts expect a GBP-negative release. USD/JPY is trading a bit on the downside after it reached 99.62 yesterday. The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said today that policy makers will continue to take appropriate action in conducting monetary policy. EUR/JPY declined a bit from an almost 4-year high before ECB President Mario Draghi speaks next week. USD/CHF is trading just above 0.9100. AUD/USD rose a bit from support at $0.9427 after declining from $0.9524 yesterday. NZD/USD rose to $0.8390, though it’s still below yesterday’s high at $0.8435. USD/CAD recovered to 1.0285. Canada will publish inflation data at 12:30 GMT. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/533

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FBS: what about AUD? Australian dollar made an impressive bullish move on Wednesday, testing the levels above $0.9510 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). Dovish Fed’s comments caused a significant depreciation of the US dollar and a rise in risky currencies. It is now more or less clear that the Fed’s monetary policy will remain loose at least for the next couple of month. So, the market is likely to focus on the RBA policy in the near future: how high will the Australian regulator let the currency go? Will Australia lower interest rates further in order to stimulate the economy? We lean toward more RBA easing on the November meeting. Generally, we believe that the Aussie has some more room to extend growth in the coming weeks. The “double bottom” pattern (remember our last week’s article on AUD/USD) shows the pair could rise to the $0.9645/60 area (June highs, 55-months MA). In the near term we see a need for some bearish correction below $0.9500/10, but expect the $0.9350/35 area to limit the short-term downside. Slide below $0.9225 would, actually, be a bearish signal. Watch China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI on Monday and the RBA financial stability review on the economic calendar. Chart. Daily AUD/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/643

FBS: Fed brought more uncertainty So, the Federal Reserve has surprised the majority of players yesterday by not tapering its massive stimulus program, while nearly two-thirds of market participants were waiting for a QE reduction by roughly $10 billion. US dollar now returned to the levels seen well before the Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke first spilled out the idea of tapering the stimulus in May. Risk assets rallied yesterday. However, it’s necessary to understand that the uncertainty won’t disappear. Everyone understands that sooner or later the Fed will have to start reducing QE – there will be now a speculation about when this is going to happen. Such speculation will provide USD a bit of support – enough for corrections in its weakening trend. We’ve seen that the recent data released in America was lower than expected and the Fed downgraded US economic forecasts. This makes us think that the doves in the Fed may rule the game in the next months. There are only 2 more scheduled policy meetings this year, one in October and one in December. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/641

Trade signals from Danske Bank EUR/USD: Long from $1.3458 with a target of 1.3597 and a stop at $1.3369 USD/JPY: Short from 98.53 with a target of 97.45 and a stop at 99.12 GBP/USD: Long from $1.6040 with a target of $1.6257 and a stop at $1.5990 USD/CHF: Hold short from 0.9359 with a target of 0.9147 and a stop at 0.9345 AUD/USD: Look to buy on dips USD/CAD: Look to sell * The bank applies trailing stop orders http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/640

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3350, $1.3400, $1.3420, $1.3450, $1.3480, $1.3515; GBP/USD: $1.5900, $1.6070; USD/JPY: 98.00, 96.25, 99.00, 99.50, 99.60 (500 million), 100.00, 100.50; USD/CHF: 0.9200, 0.9245, 0.9250; AUD/USD: $0.9350, $0.9425, $0.9450, $0.9500; USD/CAD: 1.0250. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/527

Sep. 19: Asian session US dollar fell yesterday versus its peers as the Fed unexpectedly kept the current pace of asset purchases that tend to debase the greenback, while the economists expected it to taper quantitative easing. Chairman Ben Bernanke refused to commit to begin reducing the bond purchases this year. The Bloomberg Dollar Index toward the lowest level in seven months. EUR/USD jumped by more than 200 pips on Wednesday touching $1.3540 (highest level since January) and closing at $1.3520. The pair is trading around $1.3530 as of writing. Prospects of the pair have significantly improved since yesterday. There are no data releases in euro zone scheduled for today, so the market will likely keep digesting the FOMC-caused shock. GBP/USD rocketed to $1.6162 yesterday (highest since January). Today the cable is trading under slight pressure around $1.6130. Watch the UK retail sales at 8:30 GMT. USD/JPY is trading by about 40 pips up in the 98.30 area after it lost more than 100 pips yesterday. Yen declined today as Japan had a trade deficit for a 14th month. USD/CHF is little changed at 0.9120 after it dropped by 140 pips yesterday. The Swiss National Bank announced its interest rate decision at 07:30 GMT. AUD/USD is trading right below $0.9500. Aussie’s correcting a bit after it rose gained about 65 pips yesterday and rose to $0.9528. NZD/USD is rising for the third day in a row. The pair has reached the highest levels since early May above $0.8400. New Zealand’s GDP added 0.2% in Q2, in line with expectations. USD/CAD dropped to 1.0215. The downside was limited by the 200-day MA. Canada will release wholesale sales figures at 12:30 GMT. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/525