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AUD/USD: analysts' forecasts AUD/USD retraced 50% of its decline from April to August reaching $0.9700, and then corrected to the levels below $0.9500. Will the pair manage to resume advance? Here’s what the analysts think. Bank of America Merrill Lynch: “We expect the carry supportive environment to continue until mid-December and AUD/USD to approach the high $0.90s. Then we are thinking of selling the attempts of Aussie to rise above parity, around $1.0050. Wesptac: We are likely to see further consolidation in the $0.9400/0.9700 range in the coming weeks ahead of a break higher to $0.9920. Citi: AUD/USD may have some modest further room to rally, but risk-return in adopting short positions should be more attractive on any further rise. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/777

Analysts on the Fed and USD Barclays: “The people who were expecting a more dovish statement from the Fed are unwinding their positions. USD was bought back, but whether it can sustain those gains will depend on the economic data.” BNP Paribas: “The USD’s ability to rally simply on lack of new negative news from the Fed adds more evidence to suggest that the market has become uncomfortably short USD.” Standard Chartered: “We stay dollar bullish. The Fed is going to tighten monetary conditions eventually, whether it’s via tapering or rate hikes, sooner than other central banks in the G10 outside of New Zealand.” http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/776

Trade signals from Danske Bank EUR/USD: Hold short from $1.3757 with a target of $1.3662 and a stop at $1.3803 USD/JPY: Buy at 98.34 with a target of 99.67 and a stop at 97.75 GBP/USD: Hold short from $1.6120 with a target at $1.5894 and a stop at $1.6110 USD/CHF: Hold short from 0.8985 with a target of 0.8891 and a stop at 0.9050 AUD/USD: Hold short from $0.9485 with a target of $0.9334 and a stop at $0.9560 USD/CAD: Hold long from 1.0450 with a target of 1.0516 and a stop at 1.0419 *Traders at Danske Bank use trailing stop orders http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/778

Oct. 31: European session EUR/USD slid to October 3 high at $1.3646. Euro was hit by a bunch of lower-than-expected data from the euro area: German retail sales (-0.4%), GfK German consumer climate (7.0 vs. 7.3), French consumer spending (-0.1%), euro zone inflation (0.7% vs. 1.1%) and unemployment (12.2% vs. 12.0%). The market will now wait something dovish from the ECB. GBP/USD is consolidating in a tight $1.6045/00 range. EUR/GBP dropped by almost 70 pips to 0.8500. UK October nationwide house prices rose by 1.0 % m/m (forecast: +0.7%). Commodity currencies have found support versus the US dollar. AUD/USD recovered to $0.9540, while NZD/USD – to $0.8395. USD/CAD weakened to 1.0450 after the release of the better-than-expected Canadian GDP. USD/JPY is trading under a slight pressure around 98.25. USD/CHF jumped to 0.9050. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/656

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3720, $1.3740, $1.3750, $1.3775, $1.3800, $1.3820, $1.3825 (large); GBP/USD: $1.5975, $1.6000; USD/JPY: 97.40, 97.50, 97.85, 98.00 (large), 98.10, 98.25 (large), 98.40, 98.75, 99.00, 99.45; USD/CHF: 0.8900, 0.8950, 0.9035; AUD/USD: 0.9460, 0.9450, 0.9575, 0.9500, 0.9530, 0.9550, 0.9560, 0.9570, 0.9585; EUR/GBP: 0.8520, 0.8550, 0.8570, 0.8575; EUR/CHF: 1.2300, 1.2360; EUR/JPY: 135.00; GBP/JPY: 157.80. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/654

Oct. 31: Asian session EUR/USD declined to $1.3700. The greenback remains higher versus euro before US data forecast to show jobless claims decreased. The Fed maintained monetary stimulus yesterday saying in a statement it saw “improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions.” Today watch for German retail sales and German GfK consumer climate at 07:00 GMT, French consumer spending at 07:45 GMT, euro zone inflation and unemployment data at 10:00 GMT. The US will release unemployment claims data at 12:30 GMT and Chicago PMI at 13:45 GMT. GBP/USD is trading on the downside just above $1.6000 after it tested $1.5988. USD/JPY slid to 98.30 after it reached 98.67 yesterday. Yen advanced after the Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged. The BOJ will issue a semi-annual report on the economy and prices, which will include fresh long-term growth prospects, at 06:00 GMT, followed by a news conference by Governor Haruhiko Kuroda at 06:30 GMT. USD/CHF is trading a bit above 0.9000 after it reached 0.9024. AUD/USD is trading just under $0.9500 after it found support in the $0.9460/40 area. Aussie bounced after surprisingly strong housing data showed record-low interest rates were helping the economy gain traction, lessening the need for further easing. NZD/USD is trading on the downside, in the $0.8250 area, after it spiked down to a 6-week low at $0.8193 yesterday. New Zealand’s dollar declined, but stayed above the recent minimum after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reiterated it was likely to hike interest rates next year. USD/CAD is trading at 1.0485 after it almost reached 1.0500. Canada will release GDP figures at 12:30 GMT. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/652

RBS: thoughs about EUR/USD Analysts at RBS compare the current situation in the euro are with what we’ve seen in Japan before Abe became the Prime Minister: the central bank in the face of deflation pressure and a large current account surplus that leads to a strong currency. In their view, “without a sovereign crisis against ongoing extreme policy easing in the US, EUR is likely to grind higher”. The specialists view the current decline in EUR/USD as corrective. This correction happens as the market’s been very long on euro and traders are worrying about potential earlier than expected Fed’s policy tightening, so long positions got squeezed. Yet, the general trend remains to the upside. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/773

BNZ: the biggest risk today Analysts at Bank of New Zealand claim that the biggest risk associated with the Fed’s decision today is that the central bank is less dovish than expected. Market players don’t expect any policy changes, but the FOMC is expected to say that American economic prospects have deteriorated. If the Fed doesn’t do that, euro will probably slide below $1.3700. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/774

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3650 (large), $1.3675, $1.3725, $1.3730, $1.3735, $1.3750, $1.3800; GBP/USD: $1.6000, $1.6010, $1.6020, $1.6050, $1.6080, $1.6085; USD/JPY: 97.35, 98.00, 98.15, 98.20, 98.25, 98.50 (large), 99.00; USD/CHF: 0.8900 (large), 0.8950; AUD/USD: $0.9450, $0.9475, $0.9500 (large), $0.9600; USD/CAD: 1.0415, 1.0450 (large) 1.0500; EUR/GBP: 0.8540. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/650

Oct. 30: Asian session USD strengthened yesterday amid weaker than expected US economic data and the upcoming FOMC meeting. Today the mood remainы pretty much the same. EUR/USD declined to $1.3730. Still, euro’s supported ahead of data due to 08:00 GMT forecast to show Spain’s economy expanded for the first time in more than 2 years (forecast: +0.1%). Also watch German unemployment change at 08:55 GMT and CPI and German and Italian debt auctions. The ECB’s official Nowotny said the ECB doesn’t have tools to fight back the euro strength.The evening will be very tense with the release of ADP employment report at 12:15 GMT, CPI at12:30 GMT and, the most important, the FOMC statement at 18:00 GMT. GBP/USD is trading in the $1.6040 area after dipping to $1.6020 earlier. USD/JPY is consolidating in the 98.10/98.30 range after the yesterday’s decisive rise from 97.50. Market is waiting for the BoJ meeting outcome on Thursday. The regulator will also release its “Outlook for economic activity and prices”. USD/CHF rose to 0.9000. AUD/USD has recovered from $0.9460 (lowest since mid-October) to $0.9495. NZD/USD had a volatile session, first dipping to $0.8210 and then recovering to $0.8265. Kiwi’s initial drop was caused by the news that Moody’s has ‘discussed’ cutting New Zealand’s AAA rating. “New Zealand has the largest negative net international investment position from the AAA countries, so we discussed cutting the rating, but decided we should not downgrade New Zealand”, Moody’s executive said. Meanwhile, NZ Prime Minister John Key said that the country is among the fastest growing developed nations. RBNZ will announce its monetary policy decision today at 20:00 GMT. USD/CAD reached the highest level since September at 1.0472 before declining to 1.0460. Canadian dollar fell to a 7-week low after Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said he would extend a 3-year pause in interest-rate increases. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/649

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EUR/USD: near-term prospects EUR/USD declined to $1.3750 descending from Friday’s high around $1.3830. SEB Bank points out that euro may dip a bit more, to $1.3730 (the middle of the candle formed last Tuesday). The pair didn’t manage to settle above $1.3800 and the buyers have run out of steam. Commerzbank notes that there’s support at $1.3695 and $1.3646. Below the latter the pair will be vulnerable for a decline to $1.3472 (Oct. 16 low) and $1.3405 (base of the 3-month upward channel). Above $1.3830 there will be more resistance at $1.3850. Bank of America adds that while a EUR/USD pullback should be seen as temporary, the downside could extend to $1.3711/3646 before renewed basing. OCBC Bank says that the pair will be more range bound ahead of the FOMC announcement on Wednesday and as the market suspects that the ECB may be uncomfortable with the current EUR/USD level. Chart. Daily EUR/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/772

Trade signals from Danske Bank EUR/USD: Hold long from $1.3661 with a target of $1.3871 and a stop at $1.3738 GBP/USD: Hold short from $1.6120 with a target at $1.5980 and a stop at $1.6160 USD/CHF: Hold short from 0.8965 with a target of 0.8891 and a stop at 0.9050 AUD/USD: Buy at $0.9535 with a target of $0.9715 and a stop at $0.9480 USD/CAD: Possibly buy *Traders at Danske Bank use trailing stop orders http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/771

Oct. 29: Asian session EUR/USD slid to $1.3770, but still remained close to the 2-year high. The Fed begins a 2-day meeting today and economists are predicting that the policy makers will refrain from tapering stimulus. In the euro area watch for German Gfk consumer climate at 07:00 GMT. Data released yesterday showed that US pending home sales slumped in September, while industrial production kept growing at a bit higher pace. Later today don’t miss US retail sales figures at 12:30 GMT and consumer confidence at 14:00 GMT. GBP/USD tested $1.6063 before returning to the levels above $1.6100, but is still trading on the downside. Britain will release net lending for individuals data at 09:30 GMT. USD/JPY is trading in the 97.70/45 range, gravitating towards the lower part of the range. Japan released a bunch of positive data tonight. Retail sales rose by 1.8% m/m (forecast: 0.5%), while household spending grew by 3.7% y/y (forecast: 0.5%). USD/CHF met resistance around 0.8970. AUD/USD extends the downside, falling by 70 pips to $0.9505 in the Asian trade. RBA Governor Stevens pulled the pair lower by saying that the “unusually high” AUD is not supported by the fundamentals. Stevens said the Aussie is likely to be ‘materially lower’ sometime in the future given the declining terms of trade. NZD/USD has followed the Aussie’s decline, slipping to $0.8260. USD/CAD is trading below resistance at 1.0450. Bank of Canada’s Governor Poloz will speak at 16:00 GMT. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/648

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FOMC: no changes to QE expected The Fed’s 2-day meeting starts tomorrow. According to the consensus forecasts, the central bank will keep the size of its bond-buying stimulus unchanged at $85 billion per month. UBS: “Everyone expects it to be dovish. In fact, there’s every likelihood that we’ll see the Fed communicate a willingness to delay before they taper. That would confirm market expectations and would probably lead to an extension of this USD weakness that we’ve been seeing over the last week or so.” Barclays: “While the consensus forecast now looks for March 2014 tapering, their policy decision is ultimately data-dependent and incoming US data are worthy of close attention.” http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/768

AUD/USD: Elliot wave analysis Weekly. We are seeing the beginning of the construction of an impulse wave [c]. In the near future the upward movement is expected to continue. Chart. Weekly AUD/USD Daily. The pair may have completed the construction of the wave [3] and the market moved to the correctional phase [4]. Chart. Daily AUD/USD H4. The detailed layout is shown at the figure. The wave [4] is now in process of formation, but its detailed layout isn’t clear yet. This wave may take the form of horizontal correction. Trading in the fourth wave of the impulse is quite risky. It’s recommended to wait until the correction is over. Chart. H4 AUD/USD Roman Petuchov for FX BAZOOKA http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/766

USD/JPY: Elliot wave analysis Daily. It’s possible that we are seeing now the formation of a global corrective wave 2. The construction of the correctional wave is either complete or close to completion. However, the market is now in an uncertain situation. In this regard consider an alternative scenario. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Daily. According to this alternative scenario, now we are seeing the construction of a wave (IV), which is close to an end. When it’s complete, the upward trend will continue. Now we can’t say exactly which scenario is being implemented. We’ll monitor closely the developments. Chart. Daily USD/JPY H4. Here’s the detailed layout of the main scenario. The pair keeps forming the wave (E) which may be taking form of a zigzag or a flat. In the near future we expect the local upward movement to resume. Chart. H4 USD/JPY Roman Petuchov for FX BAZOOKA http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/765

GBP/USD: Elliot wave analysis Weekly. The layout has been revised. Now we are seeing the formation of a global corrective wave B, which takes the form of a wave flat. At the moment the market’s forming an upward impulse wave [c]. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily. The detailed layout of this wave is shown at the picture. The market is constructing the wave (III). Chart. Daily GBP/USD H4. The figure shows 2 scenarios of the price movement. It all depends on what wave is now being formed. Either this is an impulse wave V, in which case we’ll see a continued recovery, or a wave IV (this scenario is marked on the chart with gray) – in this case, in the near future we’ll see a decline. The upward movement in the wave V will begin only after the construction of the wave IV is complete. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Roman Petuchov for FX BAZOOKA http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/764

EUR/USD: Elliot wave analysis Weekly. EUR/USD continues building a global horizontal triangle. Now we are seeing the formation of a wave Y of [D] of the triangle. Chart. Weekly EUR/USD Daily. The wave Y is taking form of a zigzag. Wave [C] of this zigzag is currently being formed. Chart. Daily EUR/USD H4. The layout of the wave [C] is shown at the chart. Now we are seeing the construction of a wave (5). After the formation of a local correction the upward movement in this wave will likely resume. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Roman Petuchov for FX BAZOOKA http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/763

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3700, $1.3765, $1.3780, $1.3805; USD/JPY: 97.00, 97.20, 97.25, 97.50, 98.00, 98.20, 98.75; USD/CHF: 0.8950, 0.9000, 0.9030; AUD/USD: $0.9600, $0.9645, $0.9665; USD/CAD: 1.0350, 1.0450; NZD/USD: 0.8395; EUR/GBP: 0.8500: EUR/CHF: 1.2325. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/646

Oct. 28: Asian session EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3800 area, below 2-year high $1.3832 set last week, before the Fed begins a 2-day meeting tomorrow and economists predict that the central bank will refrain from tapering stimulus. The US will release industrial production data at 13:15 GMT and pending home sales figures at 14:00 GMT. GBP/USD is trading in the $1.6170/80 area below the recent highs at $1.6250. Britain will release CBI realized sales at 11:00 GMT. USD/JPY opened the week with a gap higher at 97.60 and is quietly trading around this figure. Japan is scheduled to release a bunch of important data tonight (retail sales, household spending and unemployment rate). USD/CHF is trading a bit on the upside in the 0.8940 area, above support at 0.8890. AUD/USD moved a little lower after having strengthened to $0.9620. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is scheduled to speak today at 22:30 GMT. NZD/USD touched $0.8315 before returning below $0.8300. There is some speculation on the market that RBNZ could raise interest rates on the meeting on Wednesday. USD/CAD tested 1.0428 after easing down a bit from Friday’s high at 1.0460. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/645

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