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Trade signals from Danske Bank (19.11) EUR/USD: Short at $1.3508 with a target of $1.3318 and a stop at $1.3566 USD/JPY: Long at 99.55 with a target of 100.62 and a stop at 98.90 GBP/USD: Sell at $1.6179 with a target of $1.5988 and a stop at $1.6262 USD/CHF: Long at 0.9113 with an initial target of 0.9226 and a stop at 0.9064 AUD/USD: Possibly buy USD/CAD: Long at 1.0430 with an initial target of 1.0569 and a stop at 1.0395[/b] * Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/851

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3400, $1.3465, $1.3470, $1.3480, $1.3490; GBP/USD: $1.5975, $1.5995, $1.6100; USD/JPY: 98.75, 99.30, 99.55, 99.70, 99.75 (large), 100.00 (large), 100.60 (large), 100.75, 101.00; AUD/USD: 0.9325, 0.9330, 0.9340, 0.9370, 0.9400; USD/CAD: 1.0500; NZD/USD: 0.8350; EUR/JPY: 135.00; EUR/GBP: 0.8435; AUD/JPY: 93.00 93.90 94.00. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/709

Nov. 19: Asian session US dollar stayed generally weaker on Tuesdays morning on expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep its easy policy stance and on sharpened appetite for risk following China’s pledge to expand economic freedoms. EUR/USD is trading just above $1.3500. The pair’s staying above the daily Ichimoku Cloud. On Monday the pair tested $1.3541, but then closed at $1.3505. More resistance comes at $1.3560 (50% Fibo of the decline from October). Watch German ZEW economic sentiment at 10:00 GMT. Later in the day there will be a bunch of the Fed speakers (Dudley at 15:00 GMT, Evans at 19:15 GMT, Fed Chairman Bernanke tonight at 00:00 GMT). New York Fed President William C. Dudley said yesterday he’s more hopeful about the economy while indicating no change in bond buying. GBP/USD is trading a bit on the downside, in the $1.6100 area after testing $1.6148 yesterday. USD/JPY is trading under pressure for a second day in a row. The pair dipped to 99.60 earlier in the session, has recovered some ground as of writing, but still remains below the key 100.00 mark. Demand for the “safe” yen was raised by the Fed-induced decline in US and Japanese share prices. USD/CHF is trading at the lower edge of the daily Ichimoku Cloud and the 55-day MA in the 0.9125 area. The pair spiked down to 0.9095 yesterday, but then managed to close at the edge of the Cloud. AUD/USD has rebounded to $0.9390 on Tuesday. Yesterday the Aussie attempted to strengthen, but reversed down from $0.9420 and dipped to $0.9350. The RBA minutes released today show that the central bank saw it prudent to hold rates unchanged, but left the door open for further easing if needed. NZD/USD weakened to $0.8300 after having peaked at $0.8400 on Monday. New Zealand Q3 CPI came below the expectations at 0.2% (forecast: 0.3%, prior: 0.4%). USD/CAD rose to 1.0435 after hitting 1.0414 yesterday. The bulls are probably going to try closing this week’s opening gap (1.0445), small as it is. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/708

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How will banks trade this week? Morgan Stanley closed EUR/USD and GBP/USD shorts from $1.3450 and $1.6060 at $1.3500 and $1.6100 respectively. The bank remains bearish on EUR and expects the move below $1.3420 to signal a decline towards $1.3300 and probably $1.3215. As for cable, MS is bullish now and set a buy limit at $1.6050, with a target at $1.6300, and a stop at $1.5980. In addition, the strategists took profit on AUD/USD short from $0.9520 at $0.9390 (initial target lay at $0.9100). Citi is prepared to sell EUR/USD on rallies as they think the single currency will stay vulnerable ahead of the ECB’s December meeting. The bank also points out that the RBA officials may once again try to talk Aussie down this week. Nordea Markets is, on the contrary, rather positive about euro. The specialists believe that once EUR/USD settles above $1.3515 returning to the uptrend channel, it will head to new highs within afew months. Nordea closed the GBP/USD short and will reconsider selling only in case of a move towards $1.5850. The analysts also propose re-entering USD/JPY short below 99.50. The bank closed AUD/USD short last week at a profit, but remains short on NZD/USD. As for USD/CAD, a close at 1.0420 will make them position for a potential reversal to 1.0300/1.0280 area. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/849

EUR/USD: Elliott waves (Nov. 18) Weekly. The pair keeps forming a global convergent triangle. Wave [D] is complete. We are seeing the beginning of construction of the descending wave [E]. Chart 1. Weekly EUR/USD Daily. Wave [D] took the form of a double Zigzag W – X – Y. We saw a decrease in the impulse wave [1] and the construction of a small correctional wave [2]. When the wave [2] is formed, we expect the decline to continue in wave [3]. Chart 2. Daily EUR/USD H4. Here’s the detailed layout of the last section. Wave [2] is taking the form of a double Zigzag. The detailed layout of this section is difficult for now. Most likely in the near future we will see a slight rise, and then a decline in the impulse wave [3] will start. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Roman Petuchov for FBS http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/848

GBP/USD: Elliott waves (Nov. 18) Weekly. The pair keeps forming the wave [c] of B. Most likely, the market will renew the last local maximum in this wave. Chart 1. Weekly GBP/USD Daily. Pound has probably completed the wave (IV), and now we are seeing the construction of a rising impulse wave (V). In this situation it is necessary to consider an alternative scenario, according to which the wave (IV) isn’t complete yet. In this case, we’ll see further complex corrective movement. Chart 2. Daily GBP/USD H4. Here’s the layout of the main scenario. According to it, in the near future GBP/USD will continue building then upward wave (V). Chart. H4 GBP/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/845

Nov. 18-22: fundamentals for the week We expect the last week’s theme of continued stimulus to move on into this week. Every day there will be speeches from the FOMC officials. On Wednesday the Fed will release the minutes of its latest meeting. Any unexpected comments about QE tapering will move the market. Most of the FOMC officials favor earlier tapering and the minutes can be less dovish (USD-positive). Taking into account the remaining uncertainty about the timing of the US stimulus tapering, the economic data from the US will be, as usual, very important. Don’t miss the releases of American CPI, retail sales and existing home sales on Wednesday (Nov. 20) and PPI, unemployment claims and Philly Fed manufacturing index on Thursday (Nov. 21). Note that retail sales have to show some growth after correction in September or USD won’t be able to rise in the short term. European figures will also be in the limelight, especially taking the fact the euro zone’s economic recovery slowed down in Q3 and French economy actually contracted. Watch German ZEW economic sentiment on Tuesday (Nov. 19), France’s, Germany’s and euro zone’s manufacturing and services PMIs on Thursday and German Ifo business climate on Friday (Nov. 22). Also stay aware of fact that the euro zone authorities have to reach an agreement on handling and funding banks that fail the coming ECB stress tests by the end of the year, the US has an unfinished budget battle to fight. So, there may be tensions ahead on both sides. As for JPY, the Bank of Japan will meet on Thursday (Nov. 21). Compared with the Fed and the ECB, the BOJ’s policy is the most aggressive in providing monetary stimulus. The BOJ is expected to maintain its ultra-loose policy this month. For AUD this week will be also influenced by the central bank. The Reserve bank of Australian will release meeting minutes on Tuesday morning. On Wednesday and Thursday we’ll get comments from the RBA Assist Governor Debelle and the RBA Governor Stevens. Also note that at the end of last week demand for higher-yielding currencies increased as Chinese prospects became more optimistic after the nation’s government had released its reform plan details. If the market gets an impression that these reforms will be undertaken in the foreseeable future, risk appetite could stay lifted in the coming weeks. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/706

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3400, $1.3420, $1.3450, $1.3495, $1.3500 (large), $1.3525; GBP/USD: $1.6025; USD/JPY: 98.70, 99.50, 99.75 (large), 100.00 (large), 100.30, 100.40, 100.50; AUD/USD: $0.9325, $0.9350 (large), $0.9370, $0.9400, $0.9470; USD/CAD: 1.0465, 1.0500; EUR/GBP: 0.8435. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/704

Nov. 18: Asian session US dollar is under pressure amid the speculation that some Fed speakers will echo Chairman-nominee Janet Yellen in reiterating the need for monetary stimulus. New York Fed President William C. Dudley, a permanent voter on monetary policy, is scheduled to speak today, as are Eric Rosengren, Charles Plosser and Narayana Kocherlakota. USD/JPY moved down from the daily high of 100.38 back to the key 100.00 mark. The Bank of Japan holds its policy meeting on Wednesday and Thursday and is expected to maintain the current dovish policy. USD/CHF is trading in the 0.9150/60 area after last week it met resistance around 0.9250. EUR/USD is capped by $1.3500. The pair dipped to $1.3475, but is supported by the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Euro zone will release current account figures at 09:00 GMT and trade balance at 10:00 GMT. GBP/USD is testing Friday’s high at $1.6130. AUD/USD continues the rebound, strengthening by 40 pips to $0.9410. NZD/USD rose to $0.8360 after having closed the morning bullish gap. Positive sentiment from China surrounding plenum reforms boosted the Chinese equity markets and the commodity currencies. The Chinese Communist Party presented a project of reforms late last week, pledging to let the market play a "decisive" role in the economy. USD/CAD opened with a 10-pip gap down and declined to 1.0430. Canadian dollar gained after Statistics Canada reported on Friday that manufacturing sales rose 0.6% to C$49.9 billion, the highest since June 2012. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/703

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FBS: outlook for USD/JPY It seems that the ice has finally been broken! This week USD/JPY has finally risen above the symmetric triangle (it seems to be a true breakout this time) and remains under the bullish control. Dollar touched a fresh 6-week high of 100.45 yen on Friday on the improved risk sentiment. What is now really important for the dollaryen pair is to close the week above the 100.00 mark. For now the greenback looks well-supported. The next resistance for USD/JPY lies at 100.60. We concede that this level could create some hurdles for the price. Buying USD/JPY from 100.65 with a target of 101.55 and a stop at 100.30 could be a good deal for the next week. Next support lies at 100.00, 99.80 and 99.10/00. Chart. Daily USD/JPY

Trading GBP/USD with L.Vereshchagin GBPUSD Technical analysis from 14.11.2013 by Leonid Vereshchagin Chart 1. Daily GBPUSD There is a perfect SELL signal from the 1.6100 level (central levels of the 1.5900/1.6250 range). The price stays below the previous rising trend line support. Advice for long-term traders: enter the market with a lower Take Profit. Trading signal Optimal SELL-trade: 1.6065-1.6095 range Stop Loss: 1.6270 Take Profit: 1.5913 Chart 2. H4 GBPUSD We see a clear bearish channel on the H4 chart. Cable keeps printing lower highs and lower lows, confirming our bearish scenario. Chart 3. H1 GBPUSD On the H1 chart there is a chance to test the 1.6115 resistance. Conclusions: SELL signals confirmed Technical analysis by Leonid Vereshchagin Independant FX trader, coach and analyst http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/833

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.300, $1.3350, $1.3400, $1.3420, $1.3450 (large), $1.3475, $1.3500, $1.3510, $1.3565; GBP/USD: $1.5950, $1.5960, $1.6000, $1.6050, $1.6175; USD/JPY: 99.00, 99.20 (large), 99.50 (large), 99.65 (large), 99.75, 100.00 (large); USD/CHF: 0.9165; AUD/USD: $0.9250, $0.9260, $0.9300, $0.9350, $0.9365; USD/CAD: 1.0400, 1.0450, 1.0500 (large), 1.0510, 1.0520; EUR/GBP: 0.8375. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/699

November 15: European session EUR/USD eased to $1.3430 after having consolidated in the $1.3440/60 range in the Asian trade. Eurozone October CPI came unchanged and in line with forecast at 0.7% y/y, while the core reading slowed from 1.0% y/y to 0.8%. European stock markets moved into the red zone. GBP/USD remains capped below $1.6100 for a second day in row. On Friday is consolidating in the $1.6090/6050 range. EUR/GBP weakened to 0.8360. “Safe” currencies keep giving ground. USD/JPY is conquering new highs around 100.45. EUR/JPY strengthened to the 135 mark (highest since the end of October). USD/CHF extends the upside for a second consecutive day, strengthening to 0.9190. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/700

Nov. 15: Asian session Janet Yellen, the nominee to head the Fed, said yesterday that easing measures won’t be removed too soon. Yen declined as stocks gained and the expectations for continued economic stimulus around the globe diminished demand for haven assets. Nikkei 225 reached the levels above 15000 for the first time since May. USD/JPY reached 100.30 before retreating by 15 pips. USD/CHF rose to 0.9180. EUR/USD edged down to $1.3450, but is trading above yesterday’s low at $1.3418. Friday’s schedule of data likely to affect the EUR/USD includes: euro zone CPI (10:00 GMT); the Ecofin meeting for the EU; US import prices and US NY Empire state Manufacturing Index (13:30 GMT); US industrial production and capacity utilization (14:15 GMT). GBP/USD edged up to $1.6070, though it’s trading below yesterday’s high around $1.6100. There will be no news from Britain today. AUD/USD rose to 0.9350. NZD/USD rose to the levels just below $0.9300 after a very volatile day yesterday. USD/CAD is trading around 1.0465 after spiking to 1.0525 yesterday. Canadian dollar touched on Thursday the weakest level since September amid wagers it rose too much and too fast, but then pared losses after commodities rose and crude oil, Canada’s biggest export, erased a drop. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/698

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Nomura: forecast for gold Nomura points out that gold (XAU/USD) is still trading within a triangle. The wave D is probably completed after the metal hit $1,270 and only one small rally remains to complete the 5-leg motion – an E-wave. Resistance is located in the $1,306/26 area. “A break of $1,251 negates the triangle but we expect prices to hold above that level for now”, say the specialists. This pattern follows a downtrend as is a bearish continuation model. Eventually gold price will fall down to $1,100. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/829

Analysts: bearish on GBP/USD Morgan Stanley went short on GBP/USD from $1.6060, with a stop at $1.6160 and and a target at $1.5750. "We expect GBP/USD to come under renewed pressure. We believe that the risks for GBP are likely to intensify, with heightened market expectations regarding the UK economic outlook likely to face some challenges," MS explains. Analysts at Commerzbank expect the $1.6070/1.6125 resistance area to cap the upside. "We regard the pattern as a potential double top. A daily close below $1.5895 will complete the pattern and open the way for our target at $1.5535.” ANZ strategists expect the cable to trade sideways in the $1.6200/1.5700 range into the year-end as much of the UK economic progress is already priced in by the markets. They point that pretty much will depend on Yellen’s testimony today at 15:00 GMT. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/832

Trade signals from Danske Bank EUR/USD: sell at $1.3512 targeting $1.3390 with stop at $1.3566; USD/JPY: long at 99.50 targeting 100.62 with stop at 98.91; GBP/USD: possibly buy near $1.5944; USD/CHF: buy at 0.9113 targeting 0.9226 with stop at 0.9064; AUD/USD: possibly buy lower; USD/CAD: long at 1.0430 targeting 1.0569 with stop at 1.0395. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/828

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3350, $1.3370, $1.3390, $1.3480, $1.3485, $1.3500 (large), $1.3525; GBP/USD: $1.5920, $1.5950, $1.5995, $1.6000, $1.6020, $1.6050; USD/JPY: 98.25, 98.50 (large), 98.70, 98.85, 98.90, 99.00, 99.30, 99.50 (large), 100.00 (large), 100.25, 100.50; AUD/USD: $0.9250, $0.9260, $0.9275, $0.9300 (large); USD/CAD: 1.0490; EUR/GBP: 0.8400, 0.8420, 0.8450 (large) 0.8485 (large); EUR/JPY: 132.90, 133.25. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/694

Nov. 14: European session EUR/USD is testing levels below $1.3450. German growth slowed in Q3 from 0.7% to 0.3% on declining exports, while France’s economy contracted by 0.1%. Euro zone’s flash GDP rose only by 0.1% in the third quarter (forecast: +0.2%). According to the ECB’s survey of professional forecasters released today, euro zone’s economy will contract by 0.4% in 2013 before adding 1.0% in 2014. GBP/USD fell to $1.6000. British retail sales dropped by 0.7% (forecast: 0.0%). http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/695

Nov. 14: Asian session Today the Fed’s chairman nominee Janet Yellen will testify in Congress (15:00 GMT). Yesterday Yellen said the economy is “far short” of its potential and must improve before the US central bank can slow stimulus. Also watch US unemployment claims and trade balance at 13:30 GMT. EUR/USD met resistance at $1.3500 and then eased down to $1.3460. Euro fell after the ECB executive board member Peter Praet said the central bank can use negative interest rates. A bunch of data is released in Europe today: French and German GDP (06:30 and 07:00 GMT), French NFP at 07:45 (GMT), the ECB monthly bulletin at 09:00 GMT, euro zone’s flash GDP at 10:00 GMT (see the economic calendar for details). GBD/USD is trading on the downside, pound declined by 30 pips from $1.6060. Sterling’s correcting a bit after it gained about 150 pips yesterday as the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney gave an upbeat assessment of the country’s economy, saying the recovery has finally taken hold. USD/JPY rose to 99.70. Yen weakened as Asian stocks gained and after data showed Japan’s growth slowed in Q3 (from +0.9% to +0.5%), adding to the case for the central bank to boost stimulus. Finance Minister Taro Aso said it’s important that the nation has intervention as a policy option. USD/CHF rose by 20 pips to $1.9150. AUD/USD spiked to $0.9387 before falling to $0.9350. Aussie declined on the dovish comments from the RBA. NZD/USD spiked to $0.8355 before going down to test levels below $0.8300. USD/CAD added 30 pips from 1.0440. Canada will release trade balance at 13:30 GMT. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/693

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Commerzbank: bullish on USD/CHF USD/CHF breached last week the resistance line connecting July and September highs and retraced 38.2% of the decline since summer. So far US dollar has been limited on the upside by the 100-day MA around 0.9240 and slid to 0.9170. Support lies at 0.9130, 0.9100 and 0.9050. Resistance is at 0.9210, 0.9250 and 0.9300. There’s little on the economic agenda for today, so traders will be bracing themselves for Janet Yellen’s testimony at her confirmation hearings Thursday. Commerzbank remains bullish on the pair targeting 0.9320/22 (200-day MA and 50% Fibo retracement of the move down from July) and then to 0.9455 (September peak) and eventually to the 0.9610 (55-month MA). Chart. Daily USD/CHF http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/825