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FBS: bearish on AUD/USD Despite the hammer candle formed last week, the attempt of AUD/USD to recover was unsuccessful and the pair got rejected in the $0.9450 area. Aussie broke below the daily Ichimoku Cloud and fell to the lowest level since the beginning of September. AUD is now testing levels below 61.8% Fibo of the advance from August to October in the $0.9200 zone. Although Australian currency is pretty oversold, it’s extremely vulnerable for further declines. A fix below the mentioned area will make us target $0.9040 (78.6% Fibo, support line from 2008 lows) and then to $0.9000 and $0.8850. There may be some support around $0.9135. To negate the bearish view AUD/USD has to return at least above $0.9400. It seems that the Reserve Bank of Australia is doing a pretty good job in trying to pull the national currency down. The Fed with its less dovish minutes and the prospects of an imminent QE tapering is making its input as well. Chart. Daily AUD/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/873

USD/CHF: Ichimoku analysis (Nov. 22) Daily. USD/CHF had to go back to the support line Kijun (KS), which formed a significant level at 0.9070. After testing this level, the pair immediately resumed the recovery and re-entered the Ichimoku Cloud. However, it should be noted that Tenkan-sen, Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B are still set to decline. Therefore, despite the golden cross © the prospects for the currency pair may be not so rosy. If in the coming days the bulls won’t be able to overcome the resistance of Tenkan-sen (TS) and, further, that of the Cloud top, then US dollar won’t recover to 0.9300 for a long time. Chart. Daily USD/CHF H4. On the H4 chart the upper limit of the Ichimoku Cloud also creates a problem for the bulls. Over the past week, they weren’t able to get into the positive region and gain a foothold on the Senkou Span A. Frustrated bulls pretty soon left the market, and the pair fell to the Tenkan and Kijun lines at 0.9130. However, these lines started to form a golden cross ©, which can have a positive impact on the market’s sentiment at the beginning of the next week. Chart. H4 USD/CHF Tatyana Norkina, FBS analyst http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/868

GBP/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Nov. 22) Daily. Last week GBP/USD held above the horizontal Kijun-Sen (KS) line and now is moving up to the October peak. The pair’s trading in the $1.6200 area. If sterling settles above this level, it may conquer yearly highs in the near future. Note that the bullish Ichimoku Cloud is strengthened by the rising Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B, while Tenkan-sen (TS) narrows the Tenkan-Kijun channel up. The formation of the golden cross is possible, which would mean a resumption of the uptrend. H4. Last week the pair was trading above the Ichimoku Cloud on H4. The market consolidated and had twice to seek support around the Cloud’s top. Toward the end of the week, pound found support in the $1.6070 area, and the pair rushed to new heights. Ichimoku indicator at this time frame is now fully on the side of the bulls. There is a golden cross © formed by Tenkan and Kijun. The Cloud’s expanding upward. Therefore, the immediate goal of the bulls will lie at $1.6250. Tatyana Norkina, analyst at FBS Markets http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/867

EUR/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Nov. 22) Daily. Last week the pair was recovering above the Ichimoku Cloud and tested a horizontal line Kijun-sen (KS), which provided resistance at $1.3560. The bulls were unable to take this height. As a result EUR/USD once again fell inside the Cloud, down to its lower border. For now euro’s supported by the Tenkan-sen. If the prices don’t hold on the key level of $1.3460, in the near future we can expect stronger bearish pressure. The Cloud has turned bearish: Senkou Span A went below Senkou Span B. H4. On the H4 chart, EUR/USD tested the upper limit of the Ichimoku cloud, which coincided with the daily Kijun-sen line. Obviously, such a double obstacle is difficult to pass. Euro started correcting down from here which later led to the collapse of the currency pair to the bottom of the Cloud. Senkou Span A still keeps the market from falling, but the Tenkan and Kijun formed the Dead Cross ©, which can lead to further sales of the single currency. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/866

Trade signals from Danske Bank (22.11) EUR/USD: Short at $1.3488 with a target of $1.3318 and a stop at $1.3548 USD/JPY: Long at 99.93 with a target of 102.59 and a stop at 99.95 GBP/USD: Possibly buy while above $1.6048 USD/CHF: Long at 0.9113 with a target of 0.9251 and a stop at 0.9064 AUD/USD: Short at $0.9275 with a target of $0.9115 and a stop at $0.9345 USD/CAD: Long at 1.0430 with an initial target of 1.0609 and a stop at 1.0430 * Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/865

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3445, $1.3450, $1.3470, $1.3475, $1.3490, $1.3500, $1.3510; GBP/USD: $1.6100, $1.6150; USD/JPY: 99.50 (large), 100.00 (large), 100.50, 100.60 (large), 100.65 (large), 101.00 (large), 101.10; AUD/USD: 0.9250 0.9300 0.9325; USD/CAD: 1.0425 1.0430 1.0500 1.0560 1.0585; NZD/USD: 0.8300; EUR/JPY: 135.00 136.00; EUR/GBP: 0.8325. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/726

Nov. 22: European session EUR/USD rose to $1.3527. German Ifo business climate surged to 109.3 beating the forecast of 107.9. Another reason for euro to push higher was the comments from the ECB officials: · The ECB’s president Draghi said that the situation in the EU has greatly improved, but the region still faces challenges. The ECB will announce stress test parameters by end January. · The ECB’s Nowotny said that interest rates are now extremely low and can’t be seen as long-term equilibrium. · The ECB’s Praet said EZ debt overhang has created deflation risks. There are no market-moving data points due out of the US on Friday. GBP/USD keeps fluctuating in the $1.6200 area. Britain’s economic calendar for today is also empty http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/727

Nov. 22: Asian session EUR/USD recovered yesterday to $1.3480 as the ECB President Draghi said that policy makers haven’t changed their mind on a negative deposit rate. During today’s Asian session the pair eased down to $1.3462. Watch for German final GDP at 07:00 GMT and Ifo business climate at 09:00 GMT and another Draghi’s speech at 09:30 GMT. We’ll also hear from the ECB Governing Council member Jens Weidmann and Executive Board member Peter Praet. The Eurogroup meeting also takes place today. GBP/USD is consolidating just below $1.6200 after it gained about 100 pips on Thursday. JPY fell to fresh 4-month low vs. the USD and a 4-year low vs. the EUR on the signs of improving risk appetite. USD/JPY has formed a strong bullish candle yesterday, closing the day above the 101.00 mark. On Friday the pair extended the upside, but ran into sellers at 101.35 and gave some gains back. EUR/JPY broke through a strong resistance area to 136.40. USD/CHF rose to 0.9150. AUD/USD remains under pressure for a third consecutive day. On Thursday the Aussie broke below the $0.9270 support on dovish RBA Stevens’ comments and hit a 2.5-month low at $0.9170 on Friday. The bears are clearly dominating here. NZD/USD fell to $0.8170 yesterday, but found some support here (200-day MA, Oct. and Nov. lows). The pair is swinging in the $0.8185/8245 range on Friday. RBNZ Assistant Governor McDermott gave a speech in New Zealand today, saying the kiwi is overvalued. USD/CAD climbed to the highest level since September at 1.0546 continuing its yesterday’s advance from 1.0450. Canadian dollar fell after the Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz reiterated to lawmakers yesterday that low rates will remain appropriate until the economy shows more signs it’s gaining momentum. Canada will release inflation and retail sales data at 13:30 GMT. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/725

UBS: buy dips in USD/JPY and GBP/USD UBS strategists recommend buying the dips in USD/JPY and GBP/USD. "We continue to think that USD/JPY might be the only USD that is worth staying long or at least buy dips. We would need a clean break through the 100.40/50 area to see a continuation of this recent uptrend, while above 99.50, one can continue to buy the dips", UBS explains. "As for GBP/USD, we look for an eventual test of the November high of $1.6198, so buy dips into $1.6050 with a stop through $1.5990". http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/861

EUR/USD: comments from FBS EUR/USD touched $1.3400 today after it made a big decline through the short-term support line on Wednesday. Resistance lies at $1.3480 and $1.3500 ahead of $1.3550. Support lies at $1.3415 (Fibo retracements), $1.3380 (bottom of the daily Cloud, 100-day MA) and $1.3300. The pair formed a hammer on H4 and got support from the Ichimoku Cloud. We think that euro may recover a bit, but will face resistance soon enough. We’ll be looking to the opportunities to sell EUR/USD in the $1.3480/3500 area with target at $1.3390 and stop at $1.3520. If euro doesn’t recover and settle below $1.3400, it will become vulnerable for a slide to November lows. Chart. H4 EUR/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/862

Trading EUR/CAD with L.Vereshchagin EURCAD technical analysis from 21.11.2013 by Leonid Vereshchagin Chart 1. Daily EURCAD The price is clearly moving in an uptrend. The pair is now testing the D1 trend line support. There is now an interesting chance to go short on the pair. The middle resistance zone 1.4160-1.4200 of a wider 1.3890-1.4430 range is cinfirmed, so we are planning to sell from here. See more details on the H4 chart. Chart 2. H4 EURCAD On the H4 chart the resistance 1.4160-1.4200 area is strengthened by the trend line. Trade signal Sell: 1.4164 Stop Loss: 1.4265 Take Profit: 1.4050 Given the short-term character of the trade, we apply the (TP1) from the D1. Chart 3. H1 EURCAD Conclusion: Sell-signal confirmed. Technical analysis by Leonid Vereshchagin Independant FX trader, coach and analyst http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/863

Trade signals from Danske Bank (21.11) EUR/USD: Short at $1.3446 with a target of $1.3345 and a stop at $1.3519 USD/JPY: Long at 99.93 with a target of 101.05 and a stop at 99.55 GBP/USD: Short at $1.6130 with a target of $1.5988 and a stop at $1.6181 USD/CHF: Long at 0.9113 with a target of 0.9251 and a stop at 0.9064 AUD/USD: Short at $0.9365 with a target of $0.9234 and a stop at $0.9418 USD/CAD: Long at 1.0430 with an initial target of 1.0569 and a stop at 1.0395 * Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/858

Key currency options (Nov. 21) Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3400, $1.3405, $1.3425, $1.3450, $1.3480, $1.3520, $1.3525, $1.3600 (large); GBP/USD: $1.6145, $1.6200; USD/JPY: 99.00 (large), 99.25, 99.50, 99.80, 99.90, 100.00 (large), 100.10, 100.30, 100.60, 100.90, 101.00 (large); USD/CHF: 0.9020; AUD/USD: $0.9300, $0.9325, $0.9350, $0.9360, $0.9375, $0.9400; USD/CAD: 1.0450; NZD/USD: $0.8300; EUR/CHF: 1.2325; EUR/JPY: 135.50; EUR/GBP: 0.8425; GBP/JPY: 161.00, 162.00; AUD/JPY: 93.00 (large), 94.00 http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/719

Nov. 21: European session EUR/USD rose back to $1.3440 after testing $1.3400 handle earlier today. There’s a hammer candle formed on the H4 chart. Euro zone’s PMIs came mixed. There was an improvement in German indices, but the readings for France and the euro area disappointed. It seems that the ECB’s Mario Draghi speech is delayed as plane diverted because of bad weather. Meanwhile, German’s Chancellor Angela Merkel gave some comments signaling readiness to work on EU treaties in order to introduce banking union and defending Germany’s trade surplus and exports. GBP/USD is trading on the downside, in the $1.6080/70 area. British public sector net borrowing was higher than the analysts thought (6.4B vs. 4.8B) – GBP-negative. The nation’s CBI industrial order expectations, on the other hand, were better than expected and that’s a go0od thing for GBP. EUR/GBP recovered to 0.8350 after yesterday’s drop from almost 0.8400 to 0.8325. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/723

Nov. 21: Asian session EUR/USD is testing support around $1.3415 (23.6% and 38.2% Fibo retracements). Yesterday euro met resistance at $1.3580 and fell by more than 100 pips. Euro got under additional pressure after people with knowledge of the discussion said the ECB may do more easing and cut its deposit rate to minus 0.1%. Today watch a bunch of PMIs released in the euro area at 08:00-09:00 GMT. Later today US will release the unemployment claims, PPI (13:30 GMT) and Philly Fed manufacturing index (15:00 GMT). GBP/USD hit $1.6071 after it spiked to $1.6178 yesterday. The Bank of England’s minutes released on Wednesday gave pound initial lift, but then the Fed overshadowed that news. Watch British public sector net borrowing (09:30 GMT) and CBI industrial order expectations (11:00 GMT). USD/JPY rose to a fresh 2-month high of 100.50 (close to the September highs of 100.60), but eased by 10 pips lower as of writing. As expected, the Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged at a pace of 60–70 trillion yen annual rise in monetary base. The regulator repeated that economy keeps recovering gradually and that the loose policy will continue until the 2% inflation is stabilized. USD/CHF rose to 0.9170, though it’s still trading below Wednesday’s high at 0.9190. Commodity currencies weakened on increased US tapering expectations and downbeat China data. China HSBC November flash manufacturing PMI came a little bit below the forecast at 50.4 (vs. 50.9 previous and expected). Activity in China's factory sector slowed in this month as new export orders shrank. AUD/USD extends the downside for a second day in a row after having topped at $0.9450 on Wednesday. The pair declined to the $0.9300 mark in today’s Asian trade and approached the key $0.9275 support. Further decline would confirm a short-term head-and-shoulders pattern. RBA Governor Stevens will hold a speech today at 9:05 GMT. There is a chance to hear some dovish comments aimed at talking the Aussie down. NZD/USD follows the Aussie, descending to $0.8235. USD/CAD rose to 1.0469 approaching yesterday’s highs. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/717

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EUR/USD: waiting for the US data By Kira Iukhtenko, FX BAZOOKA The EUR/USD pair has found support at $1.3530 on Wednesday, coming down from the overnight peaks around $1.3575, reached on dovish Bernanke comments. Daily. As can be seen from the daily chart, euro is trying to return into bullish channel it left on November 7. The rebound is additionally troubled by the 50-day MA that almost coincides with the channel support (currently at $1.3540/35). The pair is supported by the daily Ichimoku cloud (top around $1.3500). Chart 1. Daily EUR/USD H4. We see that EUR/USD rose above the bearish 4-hour Ichimoku cloud. It is also clearly seen from this timeframe that strong resistance is concentrated in the $1.3535/75 area (Nov. 6 high, 50% Fibonacci from the recent decline, trendline). Chart 2. H4 EUR/USD Economic calendar: There are no important data on the euro zone's agenda on Wednesday. All eyes are on the news from the US - CPI, retail sales, existing home sales and the FOMC October meeting minutes. Conclusions: For now euro remains under a slight bearish pressure, but a daily close above the $1.3545/75 area would become a good buying signal. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/859

Trade signals from Danske Bank (20.11) EUR/USD: Buy at 1.3528 with a target of 1.3627 and a stop at 1.3474 USD/JPY: Long at 99.93 with a target of 101.05 and a stop at 99.45 GBP/USD: Sell at $1.6179 with a target of $1.5988 and a stop at $1.6262 USD/CHF: Long at 0.9113 with an initial target of 0.9226 and a stop at 0.9064 AUD/USD: Possibly buy USD/CAD: Long at 1.0430 with an initial target of 1.0569 and a stop at 1.0395 * Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/858

GBP up on the BoE minutes The British pound has got another round of support post the release of the MPC minues, touching a fresh high of $1.6160 (highest since Oct. 28). As expected, the MPC members unanimously voted to leave the rates and the QE program unchanged at 0.5% and £375 billion respectively. The BoE minutes also show the economy is sustainably recovering, but downside risks for UK growth still exist. Uncertainty still persists that the pace of productivity could increase faster than the demand. Regarding the inflation, the BoE stressed that expectations remain firmly anchored, adding that a strong GBP would keep downward pressure on prices. The BoE emphasized once again that the unemployment rate at the 7% threshold does not necessarily represent a trigger for hiking rates. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/714

Key currency options (20.11) Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3455, $1.3465, $1.3500, $1.3530, $1.3600; GBP/USD: $1.6100; USD/JPY: 99.00, 99.30, 99.50, 99.90, 100.00, 100.50; AUD/USD: 0.9295, 0.9375, 0.9400, 0.9450; EUR/JPY: 135.25; EUR/CHF: 1.2365; AUD/JPY: 95.00; CAD/JPY: 94.50. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/709

Nov. 20: Asian session US dollar weakened versus the other major currencies as the Fed’s Governor Bernanke in his speech (started at 00:00 GMT) repeated the regulator will continue the accommodative policy as long as needed. His speech has actually echoed the dovish comments by his nominated successor, Janet Yellen: Bernanke said the economy had made a significant progress, but it was still far from the levels needed to taper. He underlined the officials needed evidence of sustainable job growth before scaling back the QE. Bernanke has also added that interest rates were likely to remain near zero for a considerable time after the asset purchases end. As a result, the EUR/USD currency pair spiked to $1.3575 before retreating a little lower into the $1.3550 area. Euro is trying to reenter the bullish channel, formed in July. GBP/USD has also pushed higher, but stayed below the $1.6145 resistance. The Bank of England will publish its November meeting minutes at 9:30 GMT. MPC members Dale and Weale are scheduled to speak today. AUD/USD slipped to the $0.9400 mark after having met a solid resistance near $0.9450. Aussie was pressured by the RBA Governor Debelle comments that a lower AUD would be preferable for the central bank. NZD/USD moved up, but was capped at $0.8390. USD/CAD slipped to 1.0450 before recovering to 1.0470. USD/JPY had a quiet session, strengthening to 100.22 before floating lower to 99.90.Later on Wednesday, the yen be influenced by a report on planned reforms to Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (8:30 GMT). The report may contain some recommendations for the GPIF to away from very low-yielding Japanese government bonds. USD/CHF dipped to 0.9077 earlier in the session, but later has returned back above the 0.9100 mark. Later in the day the market focus will be on a batch of US data, including retail sales and consumer prices, as well as the minutes of the Fed's October policy meeting http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/712

EUR/USD: news from the battlefield EUR/USD keeps trading between the uptrend line on the upside and the daily Ichimoku Cloud and 38.2% Fibo on the downside. We are expecting data release (German ZEW economic sentiment index at 10:00 GMT – the forecast is rather nice, an increase’s expected). The bulls need to push euro above $1.3550 to extend correction up. There will be still more resistance at $1.3560 (50% Fibo of the decline from October), $1.3580 and $1.3630. We’ll get the first indication of a top being formed if EUR/USD slides below $1.3494 (yesterday’s low) and $1.3475 (short-term trend line). Further support is at $1.3415 and $1.3375. Westpac will be looking to sell EUR/USD in the $1.3550 area. Credit Suisse also expects failure at $1.3548/68 and turn down to $1.3435/32, $1.3390 and $1.3359. Chart. H4 EUR/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/852

FBS: AUD/USD is trying to push up AUD/USD breached up from the downtrend channel from Oct. 23 and rose today to $1.9450. Last week the pair has stayed above the 100-day MA currently at $0.9275 and 50% Fibo of the advance from August to October at $0.9305. Note that on the weekly chart there’s a hammer with a long lower shadow – a bullish candle. H4 shows that there’s a kind of double bottom below $0.9400. This week Aussie enjoys support of the daily Ichimoku Cloud. The close above the 55-day MA ($0.9423) would be a positive sign allowing another attempt to test $0.9500 and $0.9545 – we favor this scenario. If the bulls manage to break above the latter, they’ll become able to test the 200-day MA in the $0.9650 zone. Yesterday, however, the 55-day MA capped the prices. Australian currency rallied as a report showed China plans to reduce its intervention in the foreign-exchange market. It seems, however, that Australian bulls need more dovish comments out of the US. Watch the Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke speak at 00:00 GMT. Chart. Daily AUD/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/855

Morgan Stanley: buy GBP/USD Morgan Stanley turned bullish on cable and opened a buy limit order at $1.6050, with a target at $1.6300 and a stop at $1.5980. Strategists exited its short GBP/USD position from $1.6060 on a small loss at $1.6100. "Given the relative growth performance of the UK, we now expect some further near-term support for GBP. While this is likely to be emphasised on the crosses, there is potential for GBP/USD to move higher in the near term. Hence, we recommend a cautious near-term tactical GBP/USD long ," Morgan Stanley clarifies. Chart. Daily GBP/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/856