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Trade signals from Danske Bank (12.12) EUR/USD: Long at $1.3765 with a target of $1.3870 and with a stop at $1.3710 USD/JPY: Long at 102.45 with a target of 104.58 and with a stop at 101.55 GBP/USD: Long at $1.6325 with a target of $1.6475 and with a stop at $1.6255 USD/CHF: Short at 0.9095 with a target of 0.8766 and with a stop at 0.8941 AUD/USD: Possibly sell USD/CAD: Long at 1.0612 with a target of 1.0804 and with a stop at 1.0552 * Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders

Key currency options (Dec. 12) Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3750, $1.3760, $1.3765, $1.3835, $1.3850; GBP/USD: $1.6235 (large), $1.6245; USD/JPY: 101.50, 103.00, 103.50; AUD/USD: $0.9100, $0.9200; USD/CAD: 1.0590, 1.0600, 1.0600, 1.0620; EUR/CHF: 1.2225, 1.2235; EUR/AUD: 1.5170. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/791

Dec. 12: Asian session Asian shares fell on the reduced demand for risk appetite. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell by 1%, its sharpest one-day fall in 3 weeks. Nikkei 225 index fell by 1.15%. Market attention is focused on the next-week’s Fed’s Dec. 18 meeting. Increased expectations of a possible QE tapering raise demand for the safe currencies. AUD/USD opened with a 30-pip gap down around $0.9030. Aussie got hit by the increased risk aversion despite the growth of Australian employment. NZD/USD edged higher to $0.8286 after it opened with about 15-pip gap up, but is trading below yesterday’s high at $0.8310. Kiwi managed to rise as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained its hawkish stance on Thursday, signaling that interest rates could start rising in the first half of next year. USD/JPY opened with a gap up at 102.60 and edged a bit up after touching 102.14 yesterday. US dollar strengthened as the market players got positioned for the Fed’s QE tapering next week.

EUR/USD: secrets of resilience The EUR/USD currency pair saw a short-lived drop toward the $1.3740 (December bullish channel support) during the European session, but found support there and quickly bounced to fresh daily highs at $1.3775. The major currency pair didn’t show any strong immediate reaction to the today’s budget deal in Washington. The budget accord evidently increases chances for the earlier QE tapering in US, but, as many economists underline, it still needs to pass both houses of congress and does not address the debt ceiling issue. What is more, EUR is supported by the year-end capital repatriations by European banks. Markets have also become more optimistic on the EU banking union prospects these days. We would expect the rally to continue in the coming days. EUR/USD has all the chances to retest the $1.3800/3830 area. However, a sustained break above here seems unlikely for now. The pair is expected to top around the $1.4000 mark – this is the 5-year trend line. Next support lies at $1.3650. Chart. Daily EUR/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/951

US: budget deal & Volcker rule It was an important day for the US economy: the Republican and Democratic parties reached a deal on a 2014/15 budget draft. The new budget is designed to ensure the stability of fiscal policy for the next 2 years. According to the document , the taxes in the US won't rise, but the deficit will be reduced. Unfortunately, it is still too early to say the US budget problems are over. In the coming days, the draft will be sent for approval of the House of Representatives and the Senate. The process may not be as fast as we would like to see it. Republican Senator Marco Rubio has already said that the deal "cancels the past efforts to reduce costs, rather than to take measures to combat escalating costs." In addition, the problem of the debt ceiling will return into the limelight in early 2014. In addition to the budget deal, it is worth noting the adoption of the final version of the "Volcker rule". US banks will no longer be able to make big trading bets with their own money what was a hugely profitable business for Wall Street before the credit crisis. After the introduction of new legislation in 2015, profit of the largest US banks may fall significantly. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/786

Trade signals from Danske Bank (11.12) EUR/USD: Long at $1.3735 with a target of $1.3818 and with a stop at $1.3693 USD/JPY: Short at 102.97 with a target of 101.78 and with a stop at 103.45 GBP/USD: Long at $1.6325 with a target of $1.6535 and with a stop at $1.6385 USD/CHF: Short at 0.9095 with a target of 0.8766 and with a stop at 0.8985 http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/950 AUD/USD: Long at 0.9075 with a target of 0.9204 and with a stop at 0.9065 USD/CAD: Long at 1.0612 with a target of 1.0804 and with a stop at 1.0552 * Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders

Key currency options (Dec. 11) Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: USD/JPY: 101.50, 102.70 ($500M), 102.75, 103.00, 103.50, 103.75 EUR/USD: 1.3620, 1.3650, 1.3690, 1.3700, 1.3770, 1.3775, 1.3800 GBP/USD: 1.6400 AUD/USD: 0.9000, 0.9150 EUR/JPY: 140.00, 142.00 EUR/CHF: 1.2200, 1.2220 EUR/AUD: 1.5000 http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/773

Dec. 11: Asian session The US congress has unexpectedly reached a budget deal that ensures no government shutdown in January and October 2014. The dollar halted its decline versus the major currencies as this news had significantly increased the chances for the QE tapering in December or in early 2014. Asian equity markets are all trading in the red zone. It was a bad session for the Australian and New Zealand dollars. AUD/USD weakened to $0.9130 after having peaked at $0.9170 yesterday. Aussie is pressured by a weaker Westpac consumer confidence data (down from 110.3 to 105) and by the news that GM/Holden car producer will stop manufacturing cars in Australia by 2017. NZD/USD slipped to $0.8270. The dairy giant Fonterra has cut the dividend payout forecast for 2014 today. Yen crosses are trading under a slight pressure for a second day in a row. USD/JPY is trading in the red, but remains supported at 102.60 for now. Nikkei 225 closed the session with a 0.62% loss. EUR/USD and GBP/USD have both weakened from the yesterday’s peaks, while USD/CAD and USD/CHF are a little bit up. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/785

“Predict NFP” (November 2013): results of the contest According to Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor data Nonfarm Payrolls indicator for November 2013 amounted to 203K. Indisputable winner of "Predict NFP" contest is FBS trader Md Zahir Uddin, who gave the closest answer. The contestant gets an exclusive T-shirt from FBS. Congratulations to the winner! You can check all the guesses given here. Kind regards, FBS - See more at: “Predict NFP†(November 2013): results of the contest

Trade signals from Danske Bank (9.12) EUR/USD: Long at $1.3645 with a target of $1.3758 and with a stop at $1.3613 USD/JPY: Long at 101.75 with a target of 103.74 and with a stop at 102.21 GBP/USD: Long at $1.6325 with a target of $1.6475 and with a stop at $1.6255 USD/CHF: Short at 0.9095 with a target of 0.8891 and with a stop at 0.8985 AUD/USD: Long att 0.9075 with a target of 0.9204 and with a stop at 0.9021 USD/CAD: Long at 1.0612 with a target of 1.0854 and with a stop at 1.0552 * Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/940

CFTC: USD longs remain high Here are the essentials of the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Dec. 7 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a week ended on Dec. 3. According to the report, large speculators slighly decreased their US dollar net long positions from $20.4 billion on Nov. 26 to $19.9 billion on Dec. 3. US dollar bullish positions had risen the previous 5 weeks to the highest level since Sep. 10 when the US dollar bets were long at a total of $22.0 billion more news :: http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/781

Key currency options (Dec. 9) Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: USD/JPY: 102.20, 102.50, 102.65, 102.75, 103.00 ($600M), 103.10 ($500M), 103.20 ($600M), 103.25 ($800M), 103.50 ($600M) EUR/USD: 1.3590, 1.3600, 1.3700, 1.3750 AUD/USD: 0.9100, 0.9190 USD/CAD: 1.0600, 1.0620, 1.0670 NZD/USD: 0.8200, 0.8350 http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/773

Dec. 9: Asian session Asian stock markets strengthened on Monday, supported by a combination of an upbeat China trade balance, firm US last week’s close on better-than-expected NFP and a weaker yen. Nikkei 225 rose by more than 2% in the Asian trade, while the MSCI's Asia-Pacific (minus Japan) gained 0.95%. Both Australian and New Zealand dollar gapped higher today as China November trade balance showed a huge $33.8 billion surplus (vs. $21.2 billion expected) on Sunday. China's exports came in well above forecast in November, rising by 12.7% from a year earlier. Today’s figures show China November CPI came at +3.0% (forecast: +3.1%), while PPI came at -1.4% (forecast: -1.5%). However, AUD/USD growth attempts were capped at $0.9130. The pair reversed from here and closed the gap, weakening to $0.9090. NZD/USD weakened to $0.8290 after having faced resistance at $0.8320. Japanese yen came under a renewed pressure as the markets were disappointed by Japan’s economic growth. Final Q3 GDP growth was revised down from 0.5% to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter and from 1.9% to 1.1% year-on-year. The lower GDP was due to lower private inventory investment and lower capital spending. This bad news support Japanese stocks as increase chances for an additional BOJ easing. USD/JPY opened with a gap up at 102.90 and is now swinging in the 102.88/103.20 range. EUR/JPY has hit a 5-year high of 141.55. Japan PM Abe will deliver a speech today at 9:00 GMT. EUR/USD has hit a fresh 1.5-month high of $1.3720 on Monday, while GBP/USD is trading sideways in the $1.6355/25 range. USD/CHF is trading around a 1.5-month low of $0.8909. USD/CAD is consolidating in the $1.0640/60 range. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/779

Trade signals from Danske Bank (6.12) EUR/USD: Long at $1.3512 with a target of $1.3716 and with a stop at $1.3597 USD/JPY: Long at 101.75 with a target of 103.38 and with a stop at 101.09 GBP/USD: Long at $1.6275 with a target of $1.6455 and with a stop at $1.6215 USD/CHF: Short at 0.9095 with a target of 0.8891 and with a stop at 0.9051 AUD/USD: Short at 0.9036 with a target of 0.8958 and with a stop at 0.9088 USD/CAD: Long at 1.0430 with a target of 1.0745 and with a stop at 1.0624 * Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/937

USD/JPY: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 6) Daily. US dollar jumped to 103.40 against the Japanese yen. Then the buyers started disposing of assets as the greenback approached 2013 highs and became overbought. The pair finally started correcting. By the end of the week it was trading below the weakest line of the indicator – Tenkan-sen (TS) in the 102.00 area. USD/JPY made dip lower, to Kijun. Chart. Daily USD/JPY H4. At H4 chart the trend turned down. Here Tenkan and Kijun formed the Dead Cross ©, while Chinkou Span went under the price chart. Note that after a brief consolidation above the upper boundary of the Cloud in support area of 101.80/85, the pair still fell inside the Cloud. This means that the correction may take time. The next most important support levels are at 101.50 and 100.50. Chart. H4 USD/JPY Tatyana Norkina, FBS analyst http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/936

USD/CHF: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 6) Daily. US dollar is losing ground against Swiss franc. In the past week the pair dropped by almost 100 pips, forming a low at 0.8955. On the daily chart this means that the prices went below the Ichimoku Cloud, to the negative zone. All lines of the Indicator also rebuilt. Tenkan and Kijun formed the Dead Cross © and the Ichimoku Cloud has now bearish tone. Also note that the Chinkou Span is located under the price chart. In other words, the downward trend has resumed. Chart. Daily USD/CHF H4. Early in the week the prices tested the lower boundary of Ichimoku Cloud around 0.9100. Unable to overcome this resistance, the bulls were forced to retreat, and the greenback renewed last week’s lows: 0.9030 support failed to hold and the price dropped to minimum. Tenkan and Kijun during this time regrouped and formed the Dead Cross ©. The Cloud still has a bearish tone and continues to decline. Targets at 0.8950 and 0.8930 may be hit early in the coming week. Chart. H4 USD/CHF Tatyana Norkina, FBS analyst http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/935

GBP/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 6) Daily. GBP/USD fell from the year highs around $1.6440 set at the beginning of the week. Consolidation led the currency pair to Tenkan-sen which formed support at $1.6290. Taking into account the fact that the market is overbought, we can assume that the correction may extend further, causing prices to test Kijun (KS). The overall mood of the indicator remains bullish, but all the lines are directed sideways. Chart. Daily GBP/USD H4. GBP/USD fell to the upper limit of the Ichimoku Cloud. Senkou Span A can slow down the decline, but the Dead Cross will encourage sellers. Note that short-term prospects of the pair will be determined by the location of Chinkou Span line below the price chart. Therefore, in the coming week the correction is likely to continue. The nearest strong support level is in the $1.6230 area. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Tatyana Norkina, FBS analyst http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/934 Tatyana Norkina, FBS analyst

EUR/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 6) Daily. Last week EUR/USD consolidated within the Ichimoku Cloud supported by the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. At the end of the week the bulls became more active and took advantage of the Golden Cross ©. This led to the breakdown of the upper limit of the sideways corridor at $1.3600 and a consequent move up to $1.3680, the resistance formed the Ichimoku Cloud’s top. At the beginning of the next week the prices may remain within the Cloud. There are a couple of reasons for that. Firstly, we see a strong resistance at the current levels. Secondly, Kijun (KS) suddenly went down. Thirdly, the Ichimoku Cloud still has a bearish tone. Chart. Daily EUR/USD H4. At the H4 chart the pair spent the week above the Ichimoku Cloud. The upper border of the Cloud several times held the bears’ attacks and made euro bounce upwards. As a result, EUR/USD renewed local highs and the uptrend strengthened. Ichimoku indicator still looks quite optimistic. The Golden Cross remains in place ©. If the bulls maintain such growth pace, the pair may reach $1.3785 in the coming week. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Tatyana Norkina, FBS analyst http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/933

Key currency options (Dec. 6) Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3490 (large), $1.3500, $1.3590 (large), $1.3600, $1.3610; GBP/USD: $1.6300, $1.6350, $1.6400; USD/JPY: 101.00 (large), 101.25, 101.50, 102.50 (large), 102.80, 103.00 (large), 103.25 (large), 103.50 (large); AUD/USD: $0.9000, $0.9100, $0.9105, $0.9130, $0.9150; NZD/USD: $0.8250; USD/CAD: 1.0600; EUR/GBP: 0.8350 (large), 0.8450 EUR/CHF: 1.2250, 1.2300. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/773

Dec. 6: Asian session EUR/USD rose to $1.3677 yesterday and is correcting a bit to the downside ($1.3658) today. Euro rose on Thursday as the ECB President Mario Draghi sounded in no hurry to take further monetary easing steps. Investors weigh whether US payrolls data due today at 13:30 GMT will encourage the Fed to consider trimming stimulus as early as this month, at Dec. 17-18 meeting. Also pay attention to US University of Michigan consumer sentiment at 14:55 GMT (forecast 76.2 vs. previous 75.1). In the euro area watch for German factory orders due at 11:00 GMT (forecast -0.4% vs. previous +3.3%). GBP/USD is trading on the downside for the third day, but remains above yesterday’s low at $1.6300. Britain will release consumer inflation expectations at 09:30 GMT. USD/JPY extended yesterday correction from the overbought levels. Despite the yesterday’s strong US data, the pair dipped to 101.60. On Friday the greenback has recovered to 102.15, but still remains in a short-term bearish channel. Japan’s Nikkei managed to steady around 15,200 after sharp falls of the previous two days. USD/CHF recovered from 0.8956 to 0.8970. Swiss consumer prices are due at 08:15 GMT (forecast: -0.2%). Asian stock markets have spent much of the session in the red zone ahead of the US payrolls data. AUD/USD is consolidating in a tight $0.9036/80 range. The pair has twice tested the $0.9000 mark in the recent days, but has found support there. NZD/USD is trading under pressure a little bit below the $0.8200 mark. Gold held around $1,227 an ounce, heading for a weekly loss. USD/CAD got support at 1.0624 yesterday and recovered to 1.0660 today. Canadian labor market data is due at 13:30 GMT. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/772

Commerzbank: EUR/JPY remains bid According to analysts at Commerzbank, EUR/JPY will remain bid as long as it holds above 137.15. In their view, euro/yen could extend the upside in the near term and to reverse from the 141.00 zone. “The market remains well placed to continue to probe the 140.30/141.00 resistance zone”. Chart. H4 EUR/JPY http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/932

FBS: USD/JPY trade USD/JPY is trading under pressure for a third day in a row, slipping from a 6-month high of 103.35 to the levels below the 102.00 mark. For now, the US dollar remains supported at 101.80 (23.6% Fibo from the recent rally, H4 Ichimoku). In a short-term we recommend selling the pair from 101.80 with an initial target of 101.50. Next support for the pair lies at 101.15 – the level is likely to limit the current bearish correction. We believe the greenback remains capped as long as the 102.80 resistance holds. In a longer term we still remain bullish for USD/JPY with an initial target of 105.50. Waiting for the right moment to go long on lower levels. Chart. H1 USD/JPY http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/930

USD/CAD: bad times for loonie USD/CAD is trading in the 1.0660 area after it spiked to 1.0707 yesterday, the highest level since the middle of 2010. The Bank of Canada kept his main interest rate unchanged at 1% and said the risks of inflation staying below target “appear to be greater”. The central bank’s tone hasn’t changed much since October meeting when it switched from a soft tightening to a neutral mood. Analysts at Credit Agricole point out that USD/CAD is driven by the difference in monetary policies of the US and Canadian central banks. US 10-year yield rose by 23 bps over the past month while the Canadian 10-year added only 15 bps. Canada’s disinflationary concerns may continue supporting the pair. Another bearish factor for CAD is a drop in prices of commodities such as gold and oil. Still, CA regards the situation in Canada as much better than in other G10 economies and recommend waiting for higher levels in EUR/CAD and AUD/CAD to enter shorts. Societe Generale is sure that USD/CAD will break 1.0700 in the next wave of acceleration. Support lies at 1.0650, 1.0605 and 1.0560. Resistance is at 1.0700, 1.0745 and 1.0780. There will be important data from Canada as well today: building permits at 13:30 GMT and Ivey PMI at 15:00 GMT. Analysts also forecast that US Q3 GDP growth reading will be raised. Chart. Daily USD/CAD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/929

EUR/USD: a final thrust up? EUR/USD bulls are once again attacking resistance in the $1.3626/46 area. The market players are waiting for the ECB’s meeting at 12:45 GMT and press conference at 13:30 GMT. According to the consensus forecast, the regulator will leave the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.25%, but traders are nervous being taken off guard by November’s rate cut. The attention will also be on the ECB’s staff projections for 2014 and 2015, and in particular on inflation forecasts. If the euro zone’s recovery continues, the ECB probably won’t ease policy anymore. Bank of America Merrill Lynch points out that in the near term there’s risk of one last corrective push higher to $1.3682/1.3718. A close below $1.3524/1.3497 says the downtrend has resumed. Chart. Daily EUR/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/928

Trade signals from Danske Bank (5.12) EUR/USD: Buy at $1.3512 with a target of $1.3688 and a stop at $1.3509 USD/JPY: Short at 102.60 with a target of 101.43 and a stop at 103.03 GBP/USD: Long at $1.6260 with a target of $1.6475 and a stop at $1.6310 USD/CHF: Short at 0.9095 with a target of 0.8966 and a stop at 0.9112 AUD/USD: Short at 0.9036 with a target of 0.8958 and a stop at 0.9088 USD/CAD: Long at 1.0430 with a target of 1.0745 and a stop at 1.0624 * Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/927