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BoE meeting: no changes expected The British Chancellor Osbourne will deliver the annual Autumn Statement at 11:15 GMT. The BoE December monetary policy decision will be announced a little bit later, at 12:00 GMT. The Autumn Statement will provide an updated economic outlook and previews the government's budget for year 2014. This report creates upside risks for the British pound. The statement is expected to underscore the link between strengthening economic recovery and improving fiscal outlook for the UK. As for the BoE meeting, it is widely expected that the policy will remain unchanged with a 0.5% interest rate and 375B pounds of asset purchases. The regulator will most probably stick to its forward guidance idea of the 7% unemployment threshold not being an automatic trigger for a rate hike. Despite the accelerated economic growth, the BOE doesn’t want to impede the recovery by a premature policy tightening. Credit Agricole analysts assume that the inflation slowdown may make the BoE revise the employment threshold lower from 7%. Economists at Barclays recommend waiting for the meeting minutes to gain any fresh insights from the committee: in their view, today's meeting will be a non-event.

Key currency options (Dec. 12) Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3400, $1.3460, $1.3485, $1.3490, $1.3500, $1.3520, $1.3565, $1.3570; GBP/USD: $1.6200; USD/JPY: 101.00, 101.25, 102.00 (large), 102.10, 102.50 (large), 103.00, 103.25 (large); AUD/USD: $0.9000, $0.9075, $0.9150; USD/CAD: 1.0700; AUD/JPY: 92.75, 94.60. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/765

Dec. 5: Asian session Currency market’s extremely volatile in the recent days as investors weigh the potential impact of growth indicators and monetary policy decisions in the world’s biggest economies. EUR/USD tested support $1.3528 yesterday, but then managed to recover and close on the upside at $1.3605. The pair reached $1.3620 today. Euro holds grounds before the ECB’s meeting today (12:45 GMT) and Mario Draghi’s press conference (17:30 GMT). As for America, US preliminary GDP is released at 13:30 GMT and economists expect the advance growth reading to be revised up from 2.8% to 3.0%. GBP/USD tested $1.6324 on the downside yesterday, but is now trading in the $1.6388 area. It’s an important day for pound as well. British government will release Autumn Forecast Statement with an updated economic outlook and previews the government's budget for the coming year. The Bank of England will announce its monetary policy decision at 12:00 GMT. USD/JPY is trading under pressure for a third day in a row, descending from the 6-month high of 103.37 to the levels slightly below 102.00. Nikkei 225 index has retreated further from highs. USD/CHF slid to the levels just above 0.9000 and is trading at the lower edge of the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Commodity currencies have found some support on Thursday. AUD/USD has recovered into the $0.9040 area after it touched a new low of $0.9000 yesterday. Aussie dipped a little in the Asian session as data showed Australia trade deficit widened to 529M (prior -284M) in October. NZD/USD has rebounded to $0.8200. USD/CAD is trading in the 1.0680 area after it spiked to 1.0707 yesterday. There will be important data from Canada as well today: building permits at 13:30 GMT and Ivey PMI at 15:00 GMT. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/764

Citi: 2 scenarios for USD/JPY Citi points out to 2 USD/JPY scenarios from the formation analysis perspective. 1) The pair has already climbed up above the triangle and the upside target lies around 108.00 (the triangle width was about 10 big figures) 2) The shape of the triangle is converting into an ascending one from a symmetrical one so far, with the new upper border at around 103.70 (2013 high in May) "Even in the latter case, the breach of the new upper limit (103.70) would indicate a new extended target at 113.00, even while the high at 103.70 would act as a resistance in coming months. Thus, in the mid-term time horizon, the 108.00 level is recognized as a crucial target in either case," Citi projects. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/925

AUD/USD approached $0.9000 AUD/USD is down by more than 100 pips on the day on lower than expected GDP growth (0.6% vs. 0.7% expected). Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey then triggered a sharper decline when he commented that official nominal growth forecasts would not be met. Aussie got rejected at $0.9170 this week and fell below last week’s lows at $0.9055. The pair slid to the lowest levels since the beginning of September in the $0.9018 area and approached the psychological level of $0.9000 (H&S target, support line from 2008 lows). After such a rapid selloff AUD is oversold on the daily chart. There’s MACD and RSI divergence on H4. However, Credit Agricole doesn’t recommend buying AUD/USD on the dips as the RBA’s interested in easing monetary conditions via a lower currency which it regards “still uncomfortably high”, while US labor data may positively surprise traders on Friday. “Looks like a test of the 28 Aug low at 0.8891 is looming,” said CA. Resistance lies at $0.9050, $0.9115, $0.9145. Watch a bunch of US data today (see economic calendar at fxbazooka.com). The next Australian release is trade balance tomorrow at 00:30 GMT (the deficit’s expected to widen). Chart. H4 AUD/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/924

CS: GBP/USD and USD/JPY trade Long GBP/USD Credit Suisse maintains a long GBP/USD position from $1.6355, with a tight stop below $1.6300, and a target at $1.6610. According to analysts, the current weakness is purely corrective. They stay bullish with an initial target of $1.6455. The next interim resistance level lies at $1.6483. "Near-term support moves to $1.6315/06. Below can see a retreat back to $1.6278, potentially $1.6262/58," they add. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Buy USD/JPY on dips Credit Suisse also runs an active buy limit order on USD/JPY from 101.57, with a stop below 101.13, and a target at 105.55. Analysts think that despite the fresh rejection ahead of the 103.75 (May high for the year and the 38.2% retracement of the entire 1998/2011 bear market), the bigger picture suggests an eventual break for 105.60 and then - 110.60/111.60. On the downside, a break below 101.93 is needed to mark a minor top, for a retreat back to 101.75/65, potentially 101.15/13. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/923

EUR/USD: news from the battlefield EUR/USD remains supported above $1.3500, but is limited by resistance in the $1.3615 area. There’s also resistance at $1.3626 (61.8% Fibo of the decline from Oct. to Nov.) and $1.3642 (upper daily Bollinger band). Oscillators at H4 are in the neutral state. The single currency’s now testing support at $1.3570/60 (55-day MA, 200-period MA at H4). Further support lies at $1.3525, $1.3500/90 and $1.3468 (bottom of the daily Ichimoku Cloud). Analysts at Scotiabank point out that the technical picture is mixed, because, on the one hand, the trend is breaking down, and, on the other hand, the bulls struggle to maintain the recent gains. Spanish services PMI rose to 51.5. Watch the upcoming data: 8:45 GMT - Italian Services PMI 10:00 GMT - Euro zone’s Retail Sales and Revised GDP 13:15 GMT - US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 13:30 GMT - US Trade Balance 15:00 GMT - US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales 19:00 GMT - US Beige Book Chart. H4 EUR/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/923

Trade signals from Danske Bank (4.12) EUR/USD: Buy at $1.3512 with a target of $1.3688 and a stop at $1.3509 USD/JPY: Short at 102.74 with a target of 101.43 and a stop at 103.18 GBP/USD: Long at $1.6260 with a target of $1.6475 and a stop at $1.6310 USD/CHF: Short at 0.9095 with a target of 0.8966 and a stop at 0.9136 AUD/USD: Possibly buy lower USD/CAD: Long at 1.0430 with a target of 1.0721 and a stop at 1.0590 * Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders

What to expect from the BOC? Bank of Canada will announce its monetary polcy decision today at 15:00 GMT. That's what economists at major banks expect from the meeting: HSBC: We expect the Bank of Canada to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.00% for the 25th consecutive announcement. We also expect the Bank to again signal that it has no bias to either hike or cut rates in the short or medium term. Despite inflation having fallen to 0.7% y/y, and thus below the bottom of the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% inflation target range, robust auto sales and firm housing markets indicate that key interest-sensitive sectors of the economy do not require additional stimulus. Barclays: Since any policy changes are highly unlikely, the market will focus on the accompanying statement from the BoC meeting. The previous meeting statement dropped any mention of removing policy stimulus from its guidance and said instead “the substantial monetary policy stimulus currently in place remains appropriate”. We remain underweight CAD however, expecting a grind higher in USD/CAD as relative policy diverges. Commerzbank: At its meeting on 4 December, the Bank of Canada will keep its policy rate unchanged. The BoC will stick to its view that “considerable” monetary stimulus is necessary. A rate hike will not be on the agenda before 2015. Portal - Show News

Key currency options (Dec. 4) Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3490, $1.3500, $1.3515 (large), $1.3520, $1.3600, $1.3650; GBP/USD: $1.6160, $1.6200; USD/JPY: 101.50, 102.00 (large), 102.25, 102.50, 103.00 (large), 103.20, 103.25, 103.50, 103.75. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/759

Dec. 4: Asian session EUR/USD is trading around $1.3585, below yesterday’s high at $1.3613. Euro remains near month-high before the ECB meeting tomorrow, when the central bank is expected to refrain from cutting the benchmark interest rate. Euro area will release retail sales at 10:00 GMT (forecast +0.2% after -0.6%) and revised GDP data. In the US ADP will release its non-farm payrolls figure at 13:15 GMT (forecast: 172K; prior: 130K). Also watch for ISM non-manufacturing PMI and new home sales at 15:00 GMT. GBP/USD is trading just below $1.6400, below the recent highs in the $1.6400 area. Pound was near the highest since 2011 after a report showed Britain’s construction expanded at the fastest pace in more than 6 years. USD/JPY is trading in a choppy fashion in the 102.25/65 range. The pair is now testing the lower border of the November bullish channel. Japanese Nikkei index dropped by 2.6% from the 5-month high set on Tuesday. USD/CHF edged up to 0.9050 after it slipped by 65 pips to 0.9020 yesterday. Australia Q3 GDP disappointed the markets, rising only by 0.6% q/q (forecast: 0.7%) and 2.3% y/y (forecast: 2.6%). As a result, AUD/USD fell by almost 100 pips to $0.9050 (3-month low), retesting the $0.9055/65 support. However, this area contains the bearish pressure for now. NZD/USD fell back below $0.8200. China HSBC services PMI for November has also come a little bit below the forecast (52.5 vs. 52.6 prior). USD/CAD edged down to 1.0640 after it peaked to 1.0672 yesterday. Canadian dollar remains near 3-year low ahead of a central-bank rate decision today. The Bank of Canada will probably leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 1%. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/758

EUR/USD: neutral bias EUR/USD was setting daily highs in the $1.3615/20 area for 4 days in a row. So far the bulls failed to push the prices above this area. The pair remained inside the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Yesterday euro closed below Kijun-sen and below previous resistance at $1.3560. Yesterday euro should have rallied on improvement in the euro zone’s PMI, but the currency was discouraged by strong US data which bolstered expectations that the Fed will reduce monetary stimulus. In addition, there’s still a big divergence in economic growth within the euro area. In this situation the biggest negative risk for the pair is that the ECB will drive EUR/USD lower. The euro zone’s producer prices are due at 10:00 GMT and analysts forecast contraction. Lower producer inflation will justify the central bank’s dovish approach. For now the picture is neutral. Major moves aren’t expected ahead of the ECB’s meeting on Thursday and NFP on Friday. This time market players may regard $1.3570 resistance as an opportunity to sell the single currency. Support lies at $1.3500/3490, $1.3425, $1.3468. Chart. H4 EUR/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/913

GBP/USD remains supported This week GBP/USD tested the levels above the 2009-2013 trend line, touching $1.6440 on Monday. However, the cable has faced significant resistance in this area (38.2% Fibo, top of the bullish channel) and formed a bearish “shooting star”. The pair retraced to the $1.6345 support on positive US data late Monday, but on Tuesday has recovered to $1.6380. The short-term bearish correction seems to be over for now; the bulls have regained control over the pair. We don’t see any reasons to sell the pair at least as long as it holds above $1.6340. Next support lies at $1.6260. Break above the $1.6440 resistance would open the way to $1.6760 (2011 high). British Manufacturing PMI surprised the markets to the upside yesterday, coming at 58.4 (prior and forecast: 56.5). Today Britain is scheduled to release construction PMI at 9:30 GMT (prior: 59.3). http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/912

Key currency options (Dec. 3) Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3625, $1.3600, $1.3535, $1.3525, $1.3520, $1.3515, $1.3500, $1.3400, $1.3360; GBP/USD: $1.6200; USD/JPY: 104.00 (large), 102.50, 102.00, 101.75, 101 (large). 100.75. AUD/USD: $0.9100, $0.9050; USD/CAD: 1.0635; EUR/JPY: 136.90; EUR/GBP: 0.8375, 0.8365, 0.8350 (large), 0.8280, 0.8260, 0.8250. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/756

Dec. 3: Asian session US dollar is supported as American ISM manufacturing PMI for rose to the highest level since April 2011 bolstering expectations the Federal Reserve will soon trim its stimulus,. Investors also wait for ADP employment report due tomorrow: according to the forecasts, US companies added 170K positions last month, which would be the most in 5 months EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3520/40 area. In euro zone watch for Spanish unemployment change due at 08:00 GMT (forecast 49.3K vs. previous 87.0K) and euro area’s PPI at 10:00 GMT. GBP/USD spiked to $1.6442 yesterday and is currently trading around $1.6365. Britain will release construction PMI at 09:30 GMT (forecast 59.3 vs. previous 59.4). Nothing can stop the JPY’s decline: on Tuesday USD/JPY extended the upside, facing resistance at 103.40. The Nikkei 225 index hit a 6-month high of 15.780 in the morning session. USD/CHF rose to the levels just below 0.9100. AUD/USD kept weakening on Tuesday, retesting the $0.9055/65 support. Data showed China non-manufacturing PMI for November came at 56.0, down from 56.3 in October. In Australia, the RBA left interest rates unchanged at 2.50% along with forecasts, saying policy settings remain appropriate. In the meantime, Australia retail sales rose by 0.5% m/m in October (prior: 0.9%; forecast: 0.4%). Note that Australia will release its Q3 GDP on Wednesday. NZD/USD is trading a bit above the daily low of $0.8155. New Zealand finance minister English said today the NZ firms were anticipating interest rate rises in 2014. USD/CAD is trading on the upside, not far from yesterday’s high at 1.0654. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/754

Trade signals from Danske Bank (Dec. 2) EUR/USD: Buy at $1.3512 with a target of $1.3688 and a stop at $1.3509 USD/JPY: Long at 99.93 with a target of 103.74 and a stop at 101.85 GBP/USD: Long at $1.6260 with a target of $1.6475 and a stop at $1.6310 USD/CHF: Short at 0.9095 with a target of 0.8966 and a stop at 0.9136 AUD/USD: Sell higher USD/CAD: Long at 1.0430 with a target of 1.0674 and a stop at 1.0550 * Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/911

EUR/USD: Elliott waves (Dec. 2) Weekly. The pair completed the wave [D] which took the form of a Zigzag. Now we are see8ing the beginning of wave [E]. Chart 1. Weekly EUR/USD Daily. We may be seeing the construction of the descending correction wave [2]. When it’s complete, the decline in form of impulse will continue. Chart 2. Daily EUR/USD H4. Wave [2] is taking form of a complex correction pattern. Wave (y) of [2] is a rising Zigzag and looks either already completed or nearly so. Thus, in the near future we can expect a reversal. This week may be bearish. Chart 3. H4 EUR/USD Roman Petuchov for FBS http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/907

Dec. 2: Asian session US dollar holds well against Japanese yen and Canadian dollar, but made a dramatic fall versus British pound. Demand for safety of American currency declined before reports that may signal a global manufacturing pickup. EUR/USD is trading just above $1.3600. In the euro area watch for Spanish and Italian Manufacturing PMIs due at 08:15 and 08:45 GMT (higher readings are expected) and in the US for ISM Manufacturing PMI due at 15:00 GMT (forecast 55.2 vs. previous 56.4). GBP/USD reached $1.6442. Britain will release manufacturing PMI at 09:30 GMT (forecast: 56.5 vs. previous 56.0). USD/JPY reversed down from the last week’s 6-month high of 102.60 on the news that the one of the authors of Japan's aggressive stimulus, Economics Minister Akira Amari, was hospitalized. The pair has filled the morning bullish gap and dipped lower to 102.22. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said today he wouldn’t hesitate to adjust policy fanning speculation the bank could take more easing steps next year. USD/CHF declined to the 0.9040 area, but is trading above Friday’s low at 0.9028. Swiss SVME PMI will be released at 08:30 GMT (forecast 55.1 vs. 54.2). Commodity currencies are supported by the upbeat Chinese data. China's official November manufacturing PMI, released over the weekend, held at an 18-month high of 51.4, unchanged from October and the forecast of 51.2. HSBC manufacturing PMI, released early Monday, has also come above the forecast at 50.8 (forecast: 50.5, prior: 50.4). As a result, AUD/USD opened the week with a bullish gap at $0.9130, retraced lower to fill it and then has extended growth on HSBC figures. The pair is currently trading around $0.9160. Don’t forget the RBA holds a monthly policy http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/752

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GBP/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Nov. 29) Daily. GBP/USD kept rising. During the weeks the bulls have broken up the horizontal channel in which the pair was trading since the beginning of October. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen intersected and formed a Golden Cross © exactly above the upper line of the Ichimoku Cloud. This may be seen as a further confirmation that the market is ready to continue growth. Pay attention to Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B which are strengthening the bullish Cloud. This probably shows the growth of long-term bullish sentiment. Now GBP/USD is trading above 2-year highs. There’s high possibility of pound’s testing 2011 maximum. H4. Here the picture is also in favor of the bulls. Earlier this week the pair got support at Kijun-sen as it dipped to $1.6150, but then turned up and was rising continuously throughout the week renewing local highs. All lines of the indicator are currently directed upwards, that indicates further recovery. The Ichimoku Cloud has a wide range bullish, the Golden Cross is still in place. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/903

EUR/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Nov. 29) Daily. This week buyers were more active than sellers. Euro broke above the Kijun-sen (KS) resistance line, which formed a strong level in the $1.3560 area. This level was capping the prices throughout November, so the pair’s settling above it can encourage market participants to make new purchases. In the meantime, euro’s trading inside the Ichimoku cloud, right under its upper boundary. At the same time, we should pay attention to the bearish character of the indicator. Cloud still remains bearish and Tenkan and Kijun are in no hurry to cancel the Dead Cross ©. So, don’t expect a quick exit from the Cloud. The closest level which can stop the bulls lies at $1.3650. Chart. Daily EUR/USD H4. At this timeframe the pair went to the bullish territory through the resistance provided by the upper limit of the Ichimoku cloud. Positive attitude of the market players relied on the Golden Cross formed at the beginning of the week by Tenkan and Kijun. Then the nature of the underlying trend changed – the lines Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B crossed and the pair successfully settled above the Cloud’s top. Thus, the bulls keep advancing, but there’s strong resistance in the $1.3640/3650 range and this resistance can stop the growth of the currency pair. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Tatyana Norkina, FBS analyst http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/902

Nov. 29: Asian session EUR/USD is trading above $1.3600. So far euro set high at $1.3621. Euro kept strengthening as investors pared bets for additional easing by the ECB ahead of the region’s inflation data due today at 10:00 GMT. The euro area’s unemployment rate will also be released at this time, while earlier we’ll hear of German retail sales at 07:00 GMT and French consumer spending at 07:45 GMT. A report released yesterday showed consumer prices in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, accelerated more than expected. No data out of the US today. GBP/USD reached $1.6374, the highest level since August 2011. The pair’s rising for the fourth day as the Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney said the central bank will end incentives for mortgage lending to head off threats to financial stability from the housing market. Nationwide HPI is due at 07:00 today. Yen selling continues as risk-appetite remains strong. USD/JPY pushed to a new high of 102.60 today, but met resistance and eased to 102.20 as of writing. EUR/JPY has hit a fresh 5-year low at 139.70. Japan published a large block of mixed statistics in the Asian session: consumer inflation indices came above the forecasts, but the industrial production unemployment rate and consumer confidence disappointed to the downside. USD/CHF is trading in the 0.9050 area after it declined by 20 pips yesterday. AUD/USD dipped to a fresh 2.5-month low at $0.9055 before recovering some ground to $0.9090. AUD weakened on the news that Australia blocked a $2.7 billion bid by US agribusiness company Archer Daniels Midland. The deal could have provided more capital to boost the sector. Another bad news for the Aussie was that the mining giant Rio Tinto had closed its loss-making aluminum refinery where 1,500 people are employed. NZD/USD has also recovered back above the $0.8100 mark after having dipped to $0.8083. New Zealand building permits in October fell by 0.6% m/m (vs. expected +1.7%). USD/CAD once again rose to the 1.0600 handle. Canadian dollar fell after the country’s current account deficit narrowed less than expected in Q3, signaling export growth remains subdued. Canada will publish Sept. GDP at 13:30 GMT. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/750

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