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USD/JPY nears the 102.00 resistance USD/JPY has recovered to 101.80 after having dipped to 101.15 earlier in the session. The pair remains in a bullish channel and is now close to a 6-month high of 101.90, reached on Monday. “The dollar went through a correction after the recent rapid rally and ahead of the US holidays,” Mizuho analysts say. “However, the USD bearish move can't be deep as there are no real threats for the risk sentiment right now”. Analysts expect further sales of JPY against the dollar and other major currencies until the end of the year. “USD/JPY will rise to 103.74, while a downward correction is likely to be limited at 100.62 in the near future”. Chart. H4 USD/JPY http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/895

FBS: EUR/USD in short-term EUR/USD reached $1.3600 today, but then retraced to $1.3570. Yesterday euro closed above 50% Fibo of the decline from Oct. to Nov. at $1.3560. The currency, however, still didn’t settle back inside the uptrend channel since July. The top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud lies at $1.3595. Support is at $1.3540, $1.3515 and $1.3500. Resistance is at $1.3600, $1.3625, $1.3640. Today in Europe watch Spanish retail sales at 08:00 GMT (forecast: -1.6%; previous: 2.2%) and German Gfk consumer confidence survey at 09:00 GMT (forecast: 7.1; previous: 7.0). FBS proposes selling either in the $1.3630 area with stop at $1.3660 and target at $1.3540 or on the break below $1.3500 for $1.3420. Chart. H4 EUR/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/892

Trade signals from Danske Bank (Nov. 27) EUR/USD: Buy at $1.3512 with a target of $1.3627 and a stop at $1.3459 USD/JPY: Long at 99.93 with a target of 103.00 and a stop at 100.90 GBP/USD: Long at $1.6175 with a target of $1.6380 and a stop at $1.6110 USD/CHF: Short at 0.9095 with a target of 0.8966 and a stop at 0.9136 AUD/USD: Look to sell USD/CAD: Long at 1.0430 with a target of 1.0658 and a stop at 1.0480 * Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/890

Nov. 27: European session EUR/USD is trading around $1.3600 after testing $1.3613. GfK German consumer climate came above forecast at 7.4 (forecast: 7.1). Euro’s supported by the buying interest. The next level on the upside is 61.8% Fibo of the Oct.-Nov. decline at $1.3625. As expected, the second estimate UK Q3 GDP came unchanged at +0.8% q/q (+1.5% y/y). However, the pound rallied strongly, taking GBP/USD up by 120 pips to $1.6320. The cable broke above the strong $1.6260 resistance and approached the next important level – $1.6340 (2009-13 trend line). EUR/GBP fell to 0.8330, while GBP/JPY marched higher to 166.00. USD/JPY is trading 10 pips below the Monday’s 6-month high of 101.90. We are now bracing for US data due at 13:30 GMT (Initial Claims, Durable Goods Orders and the Reuters/Michigan index). http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/744

Key currency options (Nov. 27) Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3485, $1.3500, $1.3600; GBP/USD: $1.6145, $1.6230; USD/JPY: 100.75, 101.00, 102.00; USD/CHF: 0.9200; AUD/USD: $0.9225; USD/CAD: 1.0575, 1.0600; EUR/JPY: 137.00. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/742

Nov. 27: Asian session EUR/USD closed yesterday above resistance at $1.3560 and rose to $1.3600 today. Euro rose to the highest level this month as Asian stocks erased losses and lawmakers in Germany (Angela Merkel’s Christian Union party and the Social Democrats) reached a coalition accord on wages and spending increases. Traders also think that data this week may show a pickup in inflation, reducing the need for the ECB to expand monetary easing. GfK German consumer climate will be released at 09:00 GMT. In the US watch for durable goods orders (forecast: 0.5%; previous: -0.2%) and unemployment claims at 13:30 GMT. GBP/USD is consolidating in the $1.6215 area after it gained about 60 pips yesterday. Cable awaits UK GDP data (second estimate is due at 09:30 GMT). USD/JPY has formed a bearish engulfing candle with a low at 101.15 on Tuesday, but today has recovered into the 101.60 area. The pair still remains below the Monday’s 6-month high of 101.90. The Nikkei 225 index eased by 0.3% today, slipping from the 6-month peak touched on Monday. USD/CHF slid on Tuesday to 0.9060 and is trading in this area now after it met resistance at 0.9079 earlier today. Commodity currencies have found some support on the news that China was working on a system of deposit insurance. The pair AUD/USD is consolidating in the $0.9100/30 range after having dipped to $0.9190 yesterday. It is interesting to note that Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics confirmed slowing of mining investment in the country. NZD/USD is swinging in the $0.8170/8200 range. New Zealand October trade deficit came out lower than expected (168M vs. expected 350M). USD/CAD is trading on the upside in the 1.0550 area. Yesterday there was a spinning top formed on the daily chart – this formation indicates indecisiveness of the market players. The greenback’s below this week’s high in the 1.0580 zone. Canadian Dollar traded at almost a 4-month low as the price of crude oil, the nation’s biggest export, fluctuated. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/741

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GBP/USD hovers below resistance Cable keeps consolidating below the strong resistance area at $1.6260/6340. GBP/USD almost touched the channel resistance on Monday, rising to $1.6240, and formed quite a strong bearish engulfing candle. However, on Tuesday the pair has found support at $1.6130 and recovered to the $1.6200 mark as of writing. Recent sharp rise in GBP/JPY has increased the bullish pressure on GBP/USD. However, the 2009-2013 trend line (currently at $1.6340) is a strong resistance for the pair. Even a break above $1.6260 (last months’ highs) will likely be limited by $1.6340. There is still a high chance for the pair to top here, but we’ll wait for a confirming break below $1.5900 to enter strategic shorts in GBP. From the fundamental viewpoint, today the markets look forward to the BOE’s inflation report hearings at 14:00 GMT. “We expect the BoE to repeat that the unexpectedly strong growth momentum is the reason that the MPC lowered its unemployment rate projection and that there could be a case for not raising the Bank Rate immediately at the 7% unemployment threshold”, economists at Danske Bank forecast. Chart. Daily GBP/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/885

Commerzbank bought USD/JPY on dips Commerzbank bought USD/JPY on dips to 100.40 with a stop at 99.50 and a long-term target at 108.80. "The 102.60 area may provoke initial failure, however the recent break up from a large triangle points to a longer-term target of 108.86," Commerzbank projects. "We will remain immediately bullish while the currency pair stays above the 99.56 (Nov. 19 low)," analysts advise. Chart. Monthly USD/JPY http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/887

EUR/USD: between support and resistance EUR/USD keeps trading below resistance in the $1.3560 area 950% Fibo of the decline from Oct. to Nov.; the horizontal Kijun-sen on the daily Ichimoku chart). Further resistance is at $1.3635/40. Support lies at $1.3500, $1.3480, $1.3420, $1.3400. It seems that the pair has settled in range. EUR/USD has been sitting in a rather tight range in the recent days compared to such pairs as USD/JPY and AUD/USD which broke to the upside and to the downside respectively. It seems that the pair’s confused amid the mixed US data (the Fed’s tapering seems more likely in next year than in Dec.) and some better figures from Germany provoking controversy comments from the ECB officials about the possibility of negative deposit rates. Euro’s also in Demand as an alternative to USD. Still, deep down the ECB’s policy is more dovish than the Fed’s one, so despite the near-term resilience in the medium/long term euro is bound for weakening. Today there will be another portion of US economic releases at 13:30-15:00 GMT. Chart. H4 EUR/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/883

Trade signals from Danske Bank (Nov. 26) EUR/USD: Buy at $1.3512 with a target of $1.3627 and a stop at $1.3459 USD/JPY: Long at 99.93 with a target of 103.00 and a stop at 100.90 GBP/USD: Possibly buy on dips USD/CHF: Sell at 0.9140 with a target of 0.9024 and a stop at 0.9195 AUD/USD: Look to sell USD/CAD: Long at 1.0430 with a target of 1.0658 and a stop at 1.0480 * Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/882

GBP: Inflation Report Hearings GBP/USD is trading in a volatile fashion in the $1.6185/60 area on the Bank of England officials' comments during the Inflation Reports Hearings. All in all, teh BoE is trying to convince the public that they are in no hurry to raise rates. Mark Carney: -Possibility of meeting forward guidance threshold early not a trigger for raising rates. -Forwards guidance gives UK understanding, businesses understand it, without it markets would be worrying about rising interest rates. -Downside risks to global growth is EZ and emerging markets as they undergo further adjustment and structural reforms. -UK income growth low, wage inflation weak, if UK growth relies solely on domestic consumption recovery will be very modest. Bean: -We are not going to rush to tighten policy. -The MPC wants to see sustained period of growth. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/739

Key currency options (Nov. 26) Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3450, $1.3470, $1.3500, $1.3505, $1.3525, $1.3550, $1.3590, $1.3600; GBP/USD: $1.6100; USD/JPY: 100.20 (large), 100.50, 100.70, 101.00, 102.00; USD/CAD: 1.0500, 1.0555; NZD/USD: $0.8330; EUR/CHF: 1.2420. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/737

Nov. 26: Asian session EUR/USD rose from $1.3515 to $1.3540. Euro got support as the People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said that French Government debt is good part of Chinese investments and that euro id important part of Chinese reserves. The ECB’s Asmussen is scheduled to speak later today. In his last speech he didn’t rule out the possibility of a negative deposit rate. In the US watch for building permits and housing starts (13:30 GMT); S&P Case Schiller home prices (14:00 GMT); CB consumer confidence and the US Richmond Fed manufacturing Index (15:00 GMT). GBP/USD formed a bearish engulfing on the daily chart and is trading in the $1.6150 area after the initial attempt to rise to $1.6175. The Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney and some other MPC officials will testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament's Treasury Committee (10:00 GMT). USD/JPY weakened to 101.30 after having reached 101.90 yesterday – the highest level since May 2013. There was no sharp JPY reaction to the Bank of Japan’s meeting minutes released today, but it is interesting that some members saw Japan’s economic and price risks tilted to downside. There were no talks about the additional monetary stimulus on the November meeting. USD/CHF is trading on the downside, just above 0.9100. Yesterday US dollar gained about 50 pips. AUD/USD has recovered from the yesterday’s low of $0.9125 (lowest since September), but remains capped by the $0.9200 mark. RBA Deputy Governor Philip Lowe held a speech, saying Australia needs a productivity boost. Unlike Stevens last week, Lowe didn’t try to talk the Aussie down. NZD/USD has extended the upside to $0.8260. USD/CAD is little changed today in the 1.0538 area. Yesterday US dollar made another spike to 1.0578, but failed to close that high. Canadian dollar weakened as the price of oil, Canada’s biggest export, fell after Iran and world powers reached an interim deal to set limits on its nuclear program. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/735

Will the JPY free fall continue? By Kira Iukhtenko, FX BAZOOKA Japanese yen has extended the downside on Monday with the USD/JPY pair approaching the 102.00 mark – it is highest level since May 2013. The JPY bearish trend looks technically and fundamentally strong and supposes a further depreciation of the currency. RBS economists cite the two most powerful reasons for the USD/JPY upside: market recognition of rising inflation expectations in Japan contrasting with falling inflation expectations in other major economies and a continued deterioration in Japan’s trade balance. USD/JPY move to 101.85 on Monday has hit the targets on a round of long tactical positions by some banks. The 101.50 level was the target for these positions with Credit Suisse (went long from 100.00) and Commezrbank (went long from 100.12). As can be seen from the list below, the next targets for the banks long positions lie at 103.00 and even higher: However, we should keep in mind that on the week ended Nov. 19 JPY short positions surged by 17K contracts to 112K. This is the highest level since July 2007. Such extreme positioning certainly poses a risk for a short squeeze in positioning in the near term. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/880

AUD/USD: Elliott waves (Nov. 25) Weekly. The pair continues building an upward impulse wave [C]. Chart 1. Weekly AUD/USD Daily. Aussie may be forming a downward corrective wave II, which is taking form of a zigzag. Downward movement will continue until level shown at the picture. When the wave II is fully formed, the rise in the wave III will start. Chart 2. Daily AUD/USD Daily. There’s also an alternative scenario, according to which we are now seeing the construction of the downward impulse wave V. If so, the decline will continue below the minimum which was formed by the wave III. Currently, it is recommended to consider short positions. It’s dangerous to enter longs, since the alternative option looks quite nice and right in terms of the rules of wave analysis. Chart 3. Daily AUD/USD Roman Petuchov for FBS http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/878

USD/JPY: Elliott waves (Nov. 25) Daily. Now we are seeing the construction of the final wave (V), which is the part of the global impulse 1. The market quitted the long correction and moved into the impulse phase. In the near future the advance is expected to continue. Chart 1. Daily USD/JPY H12. Now we are seeing the construction of the most powerful and rapid upward impulse wave – wave [3]. Chart H12. Daily USD/JPY H4. Detailed layout of the wave [3] is shown at the picture. Now the wave (5) of [3] is forming. In the near future the rise will continue in accordance with the target line. Chart 3. H4 USD/JPY Roman Petuchov for FBS http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/877

GBP/USD: Elliott waves (Nov. 25) Weekly. The pair continues building an upward impulse wave [c] of B. Chart 1. Weekly GBP/USD Daily. Now we are seeing the construction of the wave (V). In the near future the advance will continue. Chart 2. Daily GBP/USD H4. Pound has fully formed wave IV of (V) which took the form of the plane wave. Now we are seeing the construction of the wave V of (V). In the near future bullish move in this wave will continue. Chart 3. H4 GBP/USD Roman Petuchov for FBS http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/876

EUR/USD: Elliott waves (Nov. 25) Weekly. The pair keeps forming the global convergent triangle. Euro has completed the ascending wave [D], and we are now seeing the beginning of a decline in wave [E]. Chart 1. Weekly EUR/USD Daily. EUR has fully formed downward impulse wave [1], and we are now seeing a rise in the correctional wave [2]. When it is complete, the decline will continue. Chart 2. Daily EUR/USD H4. Judging from the depth of the correction (B), the wave [2] is taking the form of a zigzag. However, the wave (A) of [2] isn’t an impulse. Therefore, we can assume that the whole structure is a wave plane with a shallow wave (B). In the near future we are waiting for a slight rise and then decline will continue. Chart 3. H4 EUR/USD Roman Petuchov for FBS http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/875

Trade signals from Danske Bank (Nov. 25) EUR/USD: Buy at $1.3512 with a target of $1.3627 and a stop at $1.3459 USD/JPY: Long at 99.93 with a target of 103.00 and a stop at 100.39 GBP/USD: Long at $1.6205 with a target of $1.6380 and a stop at $1.6145 USD/CHF: Short from 0.9115/20 AUD/USD: Buy lower USD/CAD: Long at 1.0430 with a target of 1.0609 and a stop at 1.0480 * Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders

Key currency options (Nov. 25) Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3445, $1.3450, $1.3475, $1.3500, $1.3510, $1.3515, $1.3540, $1.3550; USD/JPY: 100.50, 100.60, 101.00, 101.20, 101.50, 102.00, 102.20; USD/CHF: 0.9105; AUD/USD: $0.9150, $0.9200, $0.9250; NZD/USD: $0.8400; USD/CAD: 1.0500, 1.0525, 1.0560; AUD/JPY: 94.00; EUR/CHF: 1.2275. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/731

Nov. 25: Asian session Oil prices fell on Monday as Iran and six world powers clinched a deal earlier today curbing the Iranian nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. The deal could lead to a further easing of the Middle East tensions and is seen positive for global growth and risk appetite. As a result, demand on the “safe” Japanese yen remains low. USD/JPY broke above the strong 101.50 resistance (July 8 high) and rose to 101.85. It is the highest level since May 29. EUR/JPY almost reached 138.00 and is trading at the highest levels since 2009. The Nikkei 225 index rose by 1.3%. USD/CHF recovered from 0.9060 to 0.9090. Switzerland will release employment figures at 08:15 GMT. EUR/USD tested resistance at $1.3560 and then slipped to $1.3540. There will be no important news releases in the euro area today. The ECB’s Noyer said that the region has low inflation and not deflation. As for the US, watch pending home sales at 15:00 GMT (forecast: 2.2%; previous: -5.6%). GBP/USD touched $1.6240 and then returned to the opening levels around $1.6220. BBA mortgage approvals are due at 09:30 GMT. AUD/USD is retesting the Friday lows at $0.9145. Aussie attempted to recover earlier in the day, but was capped at $0.9190. This week we have more RBA speeches starting with the RBA Deputy Governor Lowe tonight, so AUD seems to be exposed to more downside risks. NZD/USD has recovered above the $0.8200 mark, supported by the talks of a strong New Zealand economy and subsequent rate hikes. Analysts at ANZ now expect the rates to be raised in January 2014. USD/CAD rose to 1.0560 approaching Friday’s high. Canadian dollar declined as the Bank of Canada’s expected to keep interest rates low since inflation fell below its target. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/729

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Nomura: EUR's in trouble According to Nomura, there are macro 4 reasons to expect a decline in euro: Draghi emphasized the notion that the ECB still have several tools at its disposal to fight deflation. Recent flow information, including from the ECB’s balance of payment data for September, has shown weaker equity inflows into the euro zone. Key European equity indices have underperformed relative to the S&P500 recently. Consensus expectations for euro zone growth, which had been generally drifting higher since April, now appear to be turning. Nomura recommends selling EUR/GBP on the pullbacks towards 0.8400.