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USD/JPY under pressure USD/JPY has come under a renewed selling pressure, having touched 97.15 as of writing. The pair is testing the levels below the 200-day MA (97.26). Buy orders are concentrated in the 97.20/97.00 area. Slide below 97.00 could open the way for a deeper drop. Next support lies at 96.50. Chart. H4 USD/JPY http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/635

GBP/USD lower on BoE minutes The Bank of England October monetary policy minutes showed MPC unanimously voted to leave monetary policy unchanged. Some points we should pay attention to: 2013 unemployment and GDP growth could be faster than forecasted in August BoE expects H2 GDP to grow by 0.7% q/q or a little higher The current GBP strength may reflect stronger data and lower financial system risk Regulator doesn't seem to be worried by the expensive pound However, there was no hawkish hints, despite the recent labor market improvements GBP/USD extended the downside, slipping to $1.6135. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/636

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3650, $1.3670, $1.3695, $1.3700, $1.3710, $1.3725, $1.3750, $1.3760, $1.3800, $1.3810; GBP/USD: $1.6125, $1.6150; USD/JPY: 97.50, 98.00, 98.10, 98.20, 98.35, 98.45, 98.50, 98.70, 98.80; USD/CHF: 0.9000; AUD/USD: $0.9600, $0.9610, $0.9650, $0.9660, $0.9700, $0.9730; USD/CAD: 1.0270, 1.0275, 1.0285, 1.0295, 1.0300, 1.0315; NZD/USD: $0.8400, $0.8450; EUR/GBP: 0.8425, 0.8500, 0.8530; EUR/CHF: 1.2400; GBP/JPY: 158.40. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/634

Oct. 23: Asian session EUR/USD rose yesterday to $1.3792 adding about 100 pips. Today euro’s correcting to the downside and touched $1.3765. US dollar fell on Tuesday as data showed that employers added fewer jobs than economists estimated. This adds to the expectations that the Fed may keep its current pace of asset purchases for longer. Today watch German 10-year bund auction, EU consumer confidence, US import price index and HPI. Consult economic calendar at www.fxbazooka.com. GBP/USD initially reached $1.6256 continuing yesterday’s growth, but then declined to $1.6209. The Bank of England will release at 08:30 GMT minutes of its October meeting when it has left policy unchanged. USD/JPY dropped by almost 100 pips to 97.30 (200-day MA) after having formed a candle of uncertainty yesterday. USD/CHF renewed October lows sliding to 0.9840 yesterday. Today the greenback’s consolidating a bit. AUD/USD plummeted to $0.9640 after having tested a fresh 4-month high of $0.9758 (200-day MA). Australian Q3 inflation gained 1.2% q/q vs. the expected 0.8% rise. Higher inflation is a hurdle for RBA to cut interest rates further. NZD/USD fell by more than 100 pips, touching $0.8390. New Zealand finance minister English made some bullish comments, saying kiwi could rise on the back of the depreciating US dollar. Westpac said the RBNZ was likely to delay rate rise to April 2014. USD/CAD keeps fluctuating around 1.0300. The Bank of Canada’s meeting today. At 14:00 GMT it will release overnight rate and the rate statement, at 14:30 GMT – monetary policy report and at 15:15 GMT it will hold a press conference. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/632

Bank of Canada to lower growth forecasts The Bank of Canada will release a rate decision along with its monetary policy report on October 23. The regulator is widely expected to hold interest rates unchanged at 1.0%. However, the BoC Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem said earlier this month that the Canada’s economy will expand more slowly than had been forecast. According to him, the bank now expects economic growth of 2.25% in the H2 2013 (previous forecast: 3.2%). The central bank’s monetary policy report and rate announcement will give us more details. “The global economy has disappointed the bank’s expectation (U.S. growth in 2014 is particularly vulnerable),” said economists at TDS Securities. “Paired with weaker commodity prices and a smaller-than-expected rebound over the second half of the year, the outlook for the Canadian economy will also be pared back”. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/631

FBS: trading USD/JPY USD/JPY is trading higher on Tuesday, testing 98.35. The greenback remains supported for a second day in a row after having bottomed at 97.50 on Friday. Demand for the US currency is up ahead of the nonfarm payrolls release at 12:30 GMT. We hold our USD/JPY long from 98.15 with a target of 98.95 and a stop at 97.95. Large sell orders are clustered in the 99.00 region, while buyers have gathered at 98.00 and 97.50. Chart. H4 USD/JPY http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/746

Oct. 22: Asian session The market players are waiting for the release of US employment data (12:30 GMT) in order to assess the timing for the reduction in the Fed’s stimulus. According to the consensus forecast, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) added 182K in September. EUR/USD edged down to $1.3660. There will be no important data out of Europe today. GBP/USD slid a bit to $1.6115. Britain will release public sector net borrowing figures at 08:30 GMT. USD/JPY extends the rebound, strengthening to 98.35. USD/CHF went slightly up to 0.9035. AUD/USD is consolidating in a tight $0.9645/60 range. Aussie weakened after a multiple failure to break above$ 0.9680. NZD/USD is trading in the $0.8438/57 range after having formed a bearish candle yesterday. There are no data releases on the Asian agenda today. Markets are waiting for the US data to come in the evening. USD/CAD is stuck at 1.0300. Canada is to publish retail sales figures at 12:30 GMT. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/630

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AUD/USD: Elliot wave analysis Weekly. We see some local upward movement in the last section, its value made us change the layout. In the near future we expect upward movement. Chart. Weekly AUD/USD Daily. We are probably witnessing a beginning of construction of the wave [C]. The first waves of this impulse have been formed. Chart. Daily AUD/USD H4. We are currently seeing the construction of the wave (3). This wave is usually the most powerful and rapid in the impulse. In the last section we can observe the acceleration of the bullish trend. In the near future we expect the continuation of the advance. Chart. H4 AUD/USD Roman Petuchov for FX BAZOOKA http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/742

USD/JPY: Elliot wave analysis Daily. Presumably completed the construction of wave , which took the form of a convergent horizontal triangle. In the near future we expect a decrease in the wave [C]. Chart. Daily USD/JPY H4. Detailing layout is shown in the figure. Consider the last section in more detail. Chart. H4 USD/JPY H1. Wave almost formed. In the near future the construction of the correctional wave [iI], as shown in the figure. When the corrective wave is formed, decline will continue. Chart. H1 USD/JPY Roman Petuchov for FX BAZOOKA http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/741

GBP/USD: Elliot wave analysis Weekly. Pound may have completed the construction of a correction wave [iI]. The detailed layout is shown below. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily. The waves [1] and [2] which represent the beginning of downward momentum are complete. Chart. Daily GBP/USD H4. Presumably the wave [2] took the form of a Zigzag. It looks complete. If the layout is correct, in the near future we can expect a decline. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Roman Petuchov for FX BAZOOKA http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/740

EUR/USD: Elliot wave analysis Weekly. As euro reached the previous high at $1.3680, the layout has been changed. The pair may be forming the global horizontal triangle. Now we are seeing the construction of wave [D] of this triangle. Chart. Weekly EUR/USD Daily. Wave Y of [D] is close to an end. Let’s examine its structure on a smaller timeframe. Chart. Daily EUR/USD H4. The pair continues building the wave (5) of the final upward impulse. The upward movement in the wake of yet is likely to continue, as shown at the picture. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Roman Petuchov for FX BAZOOKA http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/739

Warnings from US Treasury Secretaty Lew US Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew warned that the political drama surrounding the debt limit hurt American economy and must not be repeated. Lew underlined that even getting close to the breaching the debt ceiling “does do some damage” pointing though that the US has “a resilient economy.” According to Lew, America should improve its long-term fiscal health and adopt “a comprehensive package that shrinks our deficits, protects Medicare and Social Security for those who rely on it, and expands our economy well into the future.” http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/627

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3550, $1.3555, $1.3625, $1.3650, $1.3700, $1.3750; GBP/USD: $1.6000, $1.6225; USD/JPY: 97.00, 97.25, 97.60, 97.80, 98.00, 98.25, 98.50, 98.60; AUD/USD: $0.9600, $0.9625, $0.9700; NZD/USD: $0.8395, $0.8575. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/624

Oct. 21: Asian session US dollar traded near the lowest level since February before data tomorrow forecast to show US unemployment held above the threshold for the Fed to start tapering its bond purchases. Now that the US government is re-opened, global traders will be closely watching the stream of US data. Today pay attention to American existing home sales. EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3680 area after it has touched levels above $1.3700 on Friday. There will be some news from Germany today: PPI due at 06:00 GMT and monthly report from Bundesbank. GBP/USD is trading in the $1.6170 area after it has touched $1.6225 on Friday. USD/JPY has opened the week at 97.80 and strengthened to 98.10. Yen has lost some ground as Japan’s export growth slowed and the BoJ governor Kuroda reiterated his commitment to monetary easing in a speech in Tokyo. Nikkei 225 index rose by 0.67%. USD/CHF recovered to 0.9035 after it found support just above 0.9000 on Friday. AUD/USD has recovered to $0.9670 after having dipped to $0.9640 earlier in the day. NZD/USD keeps consolidating in the $0.8485/8508 range. USD/CAD is consolidating below 1.0300. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/623

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EUR/USD after the big advance EUR/USD has climbed today to the highest level since Feb. 1 at $1.3690. Yesterday dollar was hit versus all of its main counterparts and euro managed to gain about 140 pips, so today the market has so far been in the consolidative mood. There are no major European economic data releases scheduled in the euro area, so all will depend on the market’s risk sentiment. The volatility may increase towards the evening as the Fed members will speak at 16:30-20:30 GMT. The most important resistance lies at $1.3711 (Feb. high). Support lies at $1.3650/40 and $1.3607/00. It seems that the bulls have the power to test this level, though the pair is overbought and the move probably won’t be very confident. Above this level the market will focus on $1.3800/30. Weekly close above $1.3645 will be a good sign. Chart. Daily EUR/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/734

FBS: GBP/USD on the rise GBP/USD extends the upside on Friday, testing fresh 2-week highs around $1.6190. Small bearish retracement in the Asian trade was stopped by the $1.6140 level. Combination of the overall USD sell-off with optimism on the UK economy keep supporting the British currency. Yesterday's data showed UK retail sales rose above forecast in September. On the back of the recent bullish developments, we went long on the cable from $1.6165 with an initial target of $1.6250 and a stop at $1.6130. Yesterday the technical picture changed dramatically: cable jumped by more than 200-pips at once. Daily close above $1.6160 is a good sign for the buyers. You should also note that cable broke above the H4 bearish Ichimoku, taking it into the positive zone. However, the pair is overbought now, so the bulls may encounter some resistance. The $1.6200/10 area could slow the upside. Chart. H4 GBP/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/736

Trade signals from Danske Bank EUR/USD: Long at $1.3622 with a target of $1.3695 and a stop at $1.3593 USD/JPY: Long at 97.80 with a target of 98.51 and a stop at 97.70 GBP/USD: Long at $1.6065 with a target of $1.6310 and a stop at $1.6010 USD/CHF: Short at 0.9130 with a target of 0.8968 and a revised stop at 0.9099 AUD/USD: Long at $0.9580 with a target of $0.9716 and a stop at $0.9525 USD/CAD: Possibly look to buy http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/735

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3550, $1.3575, $1.3625, $1.3675, $1.3700, $1.3750; GBP/USD: $1.6225; USD/JPY: 97.00, 97.30, 97.50, 98.00, 98.50, 98.60, 99.00; USD/CHF: 0.9100, 0.9150; AUD/USD: $0.9500, $0.9575, $0.9600; USD/CAD: 1.0310, 1.0365, 1.0400; NZD/USD: $0.8330, $0.8400; EUR/JPY: 134.00; EUR/CHF: 1.2355; CHF/JPY: 108.00. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/618

Oct. 18: Asian session US dollar weakened this week versus its main counterparts as the Fed’s Reserve officials (Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Minneapolis Fed president Naryana Kocherlakota) signal a delay in stimulus reduction. There will be more Fed speakers today at (16:30-20:30 GMT). Reports due next week that may show US home sales and confidence declined. Demand for higher-yielding assets rose this week as US Congress has reached a deal to extend funding and debt-limit deadlines into next year and the government reopened after a shutdown. The majors are consolidating after a big more yesterday. EUR/USD edged a bit down from yesterday’s high at $1.3681 to $1.3663. Euro strengthened by 140 pips on Thursday. There’s a risk of verbal interventions from the ECB officials. GBP/USD declined by 30 pips from yesterday’s high around $1.6170. Pound rose by about 155 pips on Thursday. USD/JPY has recovered a little to the 98.00 mark after having plummeted to 97.75 yesterday. The BoJ Governor Kuroda will hold a speech today at 6:30 GMT. USD/CHF corrected a bit up to 0.9030 after it lost more than 100 pips and hit 0.9007 on Thursday. AUD/USD has lost some ground, slipping from the yesterday’s 4-months peak of $0.9550 to $0.9610. NZD/USD has moved down from the yesterday’s high of $0.9525 to $0.8450. China Q3 GDP came in line with expectations at 7.8% q/y (prior: 7.5%). September industrial production has also grown in line with forecast by 10.2% y/y (prior: 10.4%). USD/CAD returned to 1.0300. Canada will release inflation data at 12:30 GMT. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/617

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Analysts: comments on USD/JPY Commerzbank: USD/JPY remains capped at 99.10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) for now. Over the next few days the six month resistance line at 99.60 remains in play. We expect the 99.70/100.60 area to hold the upside. Potential dips should find support around 97.50 (late September low). CMC Markets: The 99 round handle is a tough one to overcome, looking at how it’s been facing that resistance since the end of September. JPMorgan: USD will face resistance in the 98.65/99.15 yen area. This area should be a tough hurdle for the short-term setup. Still, corrective retracements look like buying opportunities. Chart. H4 USD/JPY http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/732

CA, CS: EUR/USD bullish targets Credit Agricole: EUR/USD may well approach levels close to $1.3800 during the coming few weeks as investors’ ECB monetary policy expectations are unlikely to adjust lower in the short term and the Fed’s monetary policy stance may not keep only the greenback capped but also the capital flow situation in favor of the single currency. Credit Suisse: Stay long EUR/USD for $1.3700. http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/731