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EUR/USD: Elliot wave analysis Monday, October 7, 2013 - 12:56 Weekly. The formation of the corrective wave (b) is close to an end. Chart. Weekly EUR/USD Daily. Wave (b) took the form of a horizontal Triangle. Now we see the formation of wave e of the Triangle, which takes the form of a double Zigzag. Chart. Daily EUR/USD H4. Wave 5 of © of [y] is taking shape of the Ending Diagonal Triangle. In the near future we expect the construction of a rising wave 5. After the wave [y] is complete, we expect a new downtrend to start. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Roman Petuchov for FBS http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-10-07/23541-eurusd-elliot-wave-analysis

the answer is simple, the main currency pairs such as the euro and the pound will strengthen

Oct. 7: no progress in the US Monday, October 7, 2013 - 10:30 There was no progress on US deadlock over the weekend. EUR/USD opened with a small gap up at $1.3562 after closing at $1.3552 on Friday. Euro area will release final Q2 GDP at 09:00 GMT. No revisions are expected (+0.3%). GBP/USD is trading around $1.6030 after it lost about 130 pips on Friday. EUR/GBP slid from nearly a 1-month high before the Bank of England’s policy meeting this week on Oct. 10. Demand for Japanese yen and Swiss franc as safe havens increased as US Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew renewed his call for extending the nation’s debt limit to avoid a default as America will run out of its ability to borrow on Oct. 17. House Speaker John Boehner said the US could end up in default unless President Barack Obama negotiates. USD/JPY is trading on the downside, just above 97.00. USD/CHF declined to 0.9040 after rising to 0.9080 on Friday. AUD/USD touched $0.9450, but then eased down to $0.9415. Aussie got hit after the World Bank cut China 2013 growth outlook from 8.3%to 7.5%. NZD/USD is trading on the downside in the $0.8300 area. According to New Zealand’s finance minister Bill English, NZD is ‘still too high’. USD/CAD is testing levels above 1.0300. Canada will release building permits at 12:30 GMT. http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-10-07/23536-oct-7-no-progress-us

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Why doesn’t US government reopen? President Barack Obama canceled visits to Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia and Brunei planned this week. The US government remains partially shut for the fourth day as Obama and Republicans battle over funding. The President met with Congressional leaders from both sides on Wednesday. However, according to the comments, both sides are unwilling to compromise and blame each other for this situation. The White House later issued a brief statement, urging Republican House Majority Leader John Boehner to put the budget to an open vote in the House of Representatives, where a bipartisan majority would likely pass it instantly. That might not be so simple, however. Moderate Republicans have said they think they could provide enough votes to join with minority Democrats and push a bill through the House reopening the government with no restrictions on the health care law. But under pressure from House Republican leaders, they failed to join Democratic efforts on Wednesday aimed at forcing the chamber to consider such legislation. If the shutdown persists, it could become entangled with the even more consequential battle over the debt limit. If the Congress doesn’t renew the government’s authority to borrow money by Oct. 17, US may announce a default. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/575

Commerzbank: AUD may retest $0.9510/25 Analysts at Commerzbank claim that AUD/USD may retest $0.9510/25 (38.2% Fibo retracement of the decline from April to August and the recent high) and probably to $0.9580 (May 2012 low), $0.9665 (June high) and $0.9715 (50% Fibo). According to the specialists, support lies at $0.9383 and $0.9233. Below the latter, Aussie will be vulnerable for a slide to $0.9182 (55-day MA) and potentially back to below $0.9000. Chart. Daily AUD/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/689

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3500; $1.3550; $1.3575; $1.3585; $1.3600; GBP/USD: $1.6050; USD/JPY: 97.25, 97.85, 98.00, 98.10, 98.25, 99.00; USD/CHF: 0.8900, 0.8925, 0.9000, 0.9100; AUD/USD: $0.9350, $0.9365, $0.9375, $0.9400; USD/CAD: 1.0390; EUR/GBP: 0.8375, 0.8450; AUD/JPY: 0.9100. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/576

Oct. 4: Asian session US government remains partially shut down, and the release of the key jobs report (NFP) is delayed. So, the outlook for when the Federal Reserve will taper stimulus became even more uncertain. EUR/USD reached $1.3646 yesterday. Today the pair’s trading on the upside, on the $1.3630 area. German PPI kept contracting. GBP/USD is trading in the $1.6150/70 area after it declined from levels above $1.6200 yesterday. USD/JPY is just above 97.00. The pair’s trading on the downside for the fourth day in a row. The Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged. USD/CHF is trading in the 0.8990/80 area after it slid below 0.9000 yesterday. AUD/USD rose to $0.9445. Aussie rose amidst a totally empty data calendar day regarding both the Australia and the US. NZD/USD returned above $0.9300. USD/CAD keeps consolidating above 1.0300. The pair’s trading in the narrowest range since April as the market players are concerned about the situation in the US, Canada’s largest trading partner. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/574

FBS: outlook for gold Gold prices gained yesterday on the speculation that the Fed will delay reducing monetary stimulus amid the first US government shutdown in 17 years. XAU/USD has bounced of $1,270 area for the second time. There will be no Non-Farm Payrolls release this Friday, so the market players will have to make guesses about the state of US labor market. ADP employment report revealed that private sector added just 166K jobs in September versus 180K expected. US jobless claims, on the other hand, came better than expected. It would be harder for the market players to make Fed tapering projections without. Still US budget problems allow expecting weaker USD. Technical picture still points out to the downside risks given the break of the rising channel and the longer term bearish trend. There’s significant resistance around $1,350. This may be a hard obstacle for the bulls. Above this level look for an advance to $1,375 and $1,400. Support is located at $1,300. Failure here might give the bears power to retest the recent lows. Chart. Daily XAU/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/688

GBP/USD: are high levels justified? Many analysts expected GBP/USD to fall significantly below $1.48 this year. However, pound rose by 7% since April and is now trading at the highest levels since January above $1.6200. This is about 3 cents higher than this year’s average. Yet, many specialists keep saying that such high value of GBP may be unsustainable given the state of the UK economy. Morgan Stanley (forecast for the year-end: $1.50): “Sterling is starting to look a little more over-extended. There are some longer-term risk factors that could come back and put sterling back under some pressure.” HSBC (forecast for the year-end: $1.45): “A drop in real earnings, or wages adjusted for inflation, will weigh on the UK recovery and the pound.” Commerzbank (forecast for the year-end: $1.63): The reduction in short-pound positions was “brought about mainly by U.S. dollar weakness.” http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/687

Trade signals from Danske Bank EUR/USD: keep long targeting $1.3711, stop is moved up to $1.3537; USD/JPY: buy at 96.93 targeting 98.30 with stop at 96.38; GBP/USD: keep long targeting $1.6380 with stop at $1.6160; USD/CHF: keep shorts targeting 0.8931 with stop at 0.9105; AUD/USD: possibly buy; USD/CAD: short at 1.0330 targeting 1.0182 with stop at 1.0382; NZD/USD: buy at $0.8270 targeting $0.8436 with stop at $0.8190. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/685

EUR/USD around $1.3600 EUR/USD bulls keep pushing to the upside. As Italian Prime Minister Letta won the confidence vote yesterday, concerns about Italy’s political stability eased. The tone of the ECB on Wednesday wasn’t as dovish as the market had been expecting, so there’s the room for euro’s appreciation. The market’s focus turned from the euro zone back to the US government shutdown. Services PMI results in the euro area, France and Italy surprised investors in September while the German reading missed the median, but was better than in the previous month. European retail sales are expected to increase by 0.3% (previous: 0.1%). The pair’s now moving sideways in the $1.3600 area. The daily high’s at $1.3623 for now. Resistance: $1.3630, $1.3660, $1.3711. Support: $1.3505, $1.3500, $1.3470. Chart. H1 EUR/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/572

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3475, $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3660; GBP/USD: $1.6170, $1.6175, $1.6200, $1.6350; USD/JPY: 97.25, 97.50, 98.20, 98.25, 98.80, 99.00; AUD/USD: $0.9280, $0.9350, $0.9365, $0.9400, $0.9450, $0.9465; EUR/GBP: 0.8290, 0.8380; EUR/AUD: 1.4490. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/571

Oct. 3: EUR at 8-month high Thursday, October 3, 2013 - 06:53 EUR/USD keeps attacking $1.3600. Yesterday the pair reached this handle, but then closed at $1.3577. Today euro rose to 8-month high at $1.3523. US dollar declined as US government’s partial shutdown continued, adding to concern it will slow economic growth and postpone a tapering of monetary stimulus. Demand for euro rose before a report forecast to show retail sales in the currency bloc rose in August (09:00 GMT). GBP/USD is trading on the upside above $1.6200, though below yesterday’s high at $1.6250 and below Tuesday’s high at $1.6260. USD/JPY rose to 97.78 from yesterday’s minimum at 97.14. Yen declined as Asian stocks rallied. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan swung 1% higher. Share markets find comfort in expectations major central banks might now have to keep monetary policy super-loose for longer and also in an upbeat survey on China’s huge services sector. USD/CHF is trying to hold above 0.9000. AUD/USD is consolidating below $0.9400. NZD/USD is trading below resistance in the $0.8430/40 area. USD/CAD touched 1.0317 after yesterday’s spike up to 1.0356. http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-10-03/23511-oct-3-eur-8-month-high

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USD: shutdown delays tapering ANZ: “Any undue fiscal drag coming from the shutdown would imply tapering that is further away and that’s probably a USD negative. The yen, the pound and, to a lesser extent, the euro have all benefited from the uncertainty as those currencies are reserve currencies with financial markets that can accommodate a flight to quality.” ING: “Risk assets have been sold off in the last few days ahead of the actual news of the shutdown. It’s already priced in. The consensus view is that the government can remain shut down for a little while. They will come back and revisit ahead of the debt ceiling debate. Both sides will act in time to avert a catastrophic outcome.” http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/675

EUR/USD retreated from daily highs EUR/USD retreated from today’s high at $1.3587 to levels around $1.3540. Euro was discouraged by weaker-than-expected European data (Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMIs, lower German employment change, higher German and Italian unemployment rate). There’s divergence on H4 MACD and RSI. Support lies at $1.3500 and $1.3450. Resistance is at $1.3568, $1.3587 and $1.3600. Chart. H4 EUR/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/563

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3450, $1.3460, $1.3550, $1.3570, $1.3575, $1.3580, $1.3590, $1.3600; GBP/USD: $1.6130, $1.6170; USD/JPY: 97.00, 97.50, 97.95, 98.00, 98.20, 99.00, 99.30, 100.00; AUD/USD: $0.9320, $0.9400; USD/CAD: 1.0310; NZD/USD: $0.8260, $0.8345; EUR/JPY: 133.50; EUR/GBP: 0.8350; EUR/CHF: 1.2245. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/562

Oct. 1: Asian session US dollar weakened against most major peers after a partial shutdown of the US government began as the wrangling between Senate Democrats and House Republicans threatened to stunt growth at a time when the central bank is weighing a tapering of stimulus. EUR/USD is trading on the upside. The pair tested $1.3550, though it’s still below yesterday’s high at $1.3556. Watch the European data at 07:15-07:55 GMT. GBP/USD rose to $1.6246, the highest level since Jan. 3. Britain will release manufacturing PMI at 08:30 GMT (forecast: 57.5; previous: 57.2). USD/JPY tested 98.78, but then slid to 98.00 handle. Yen fell briefly after the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey beat economists’ estimates, and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the sales tax would rise to 8% in April. USD/CHF is trading on the downside staying just above the recent lows at 0.9020. AUD/USD rose from $0.9314 to $0.9400. Australian dollar strengthened as the Reserve bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged and the nation’s retail sales came slightly higher than expected. NZD/USD is trading around $0.8300 after it tested $0.8270 earlier today. USD/CAD is trading at 1.0310 after reaching 1.0330. Canadian dollar touched a 4-day high after a report showed gross domestic product increased at the fastest pace in 2 years in July. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/561

GBP/USD: Elliot wave analysis Monday, September 30, 2013 - 15:55 Weekly. The formation of the wave [iI] is close to an end. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily. The pair has almost finished upside impulse in the wave (С). Chart. Daily GBP/USD H4. The marking at Н4 shows that we are witnessing the formation of the final upside wave [5]. After this wave is complete, the pair may start a new downtrend. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Roman Petuchov for FBS http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-09-30/23468-gbpusd-volnovoy-analiz

AUD/USD: Elliot wave analysis Monday, September 30, 2013 - 12:10 Weekly. The pair keeps forming the declining wave III. Chart. Weekly AUD/USD Daily. The pair has probably completed the correctional wave [4]. This is supported by the fact that the wave © ended at around 161.8% of wave (A) - the most common Fibonacci ratio. Thus, in the near future we expect a decline in wave [5]. Chart. Daily AUD/USD H8. The structure of the upcoming movement is represented at the picture. It’s possible that in the near future we’ll see a small upward correction wave, and then decline will continue. Chart. H8 AUD/USD Roman Petuchov for FBS http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-09-30/23474-audusd-elliot-wave-analysis - See more at: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-09-30/23474-audusd-elliot-wave-analysis#sthash.Bf1OowcM.dpuf

USD/JPY: Elliot wave analysis Monday, September 30, 2013 - 12:03 Daily. The pair keeps forming a global corrective wave . Chart. Daily USD/JPY H4. The pair’s is forming the wave (E) of . Let’s examine its structure in detail. Chart. H4 USD/JPY H1. We are now witnessing formation of the corrective wave b. this wave is taking form of a Zigzag. The wave [C] will soon end. Chart. H1 USD/JPY Roman Petuchov for FBS http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-09-30/23472-usdjpy-elliot-wave-analysis

EUR/USD: Elliot wave analysis Monday, September 30, 2013 - 11:41 Weekly. The corrective wave (b) is close to an end. Chart. Weekly EUR/USD Daily. The wave e of the horizontal triangle is close to an end. This wave is taking form of the double Zigzag, so let’s analyze its structure in detail. Chart. Daily EUR/USD H4. The pair has started forming a rising impulse wave (С) in line according to our baseline scenario. The alternative variant is that the pair will keep forming the horizontal wave (В). Both variants are shown at the picture. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Roman Petuchov for FBS http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-09-30/23470-eurusd-elliot-wave-analysis

Sep 30: government shutdown looms Demand for the safe currencies surged on the weekend news that in Italy Berlusconi’s party withdrew support from the prime-minister Letta. Italy is now under threat of parliament dissolution and new election. EUR/USD has opened the week with a bearish gap at $1.3490, strengthened a little, but remains capped at $1.3505. Euro zone will release German retail sales and flash CPI today. Don’t forget about the ECB meeting coming on Wednesday. GBP/USD has eased to $1.6150 after having touched $1.6180 earlier in the session. USD/JPY opened with a gap down at 97.65 after closing at 98.23 on Friday. Then the greenback recovered to 98.05. US dollar dropped to a one-month low against yen as political wrangling over the budget threatened a US government shutdown from tomorrow. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is due to outline his plans tomorrow for taxes and an economic-support package. USD/CHF is trading in the 0.9055 area, still above Friday’s low at 0.9020. AUD/USD tested 0.9280, but is once again trading above $0.9300. NZD/USD tested $0.8250, but then returned to $0.8280. Australian data released earlier today came out basically in-line with expectations. Chinese HSBC PMI was revised a bit down, but is still above the 50 handle. Later today traders will be monitoring the release of the Chicago PMI in the US (13:45 GMT). USD/CAD opened with a bullish gap and slipped to $1.0300. Canada will release monthly July GDP at 16:30 GMT (rather strong growth expected). http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-09-30/23465-sep-30-government-shutdown-looms