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Excalibur hedge-fund: sell the Aussie European institutional investors placed $200 million in the Aussie-selling strategy of the Sydney-based Excalibur Funds Management hedge fund. The fund forecasts AUD/USD to fall to $0.7500 in the long run as RBA is expected to lower benchmark rate to 2.0%. A leading trader at Excalibur Matthew Harper expects the spread between Australian and U.S. 10-year government yields to converge by mid-2014 (now it is more than 1%). “Traditionally the Aussie has been in demand for its yield and when the carry or interest-rate differential is no longer positive, global demand for the currency falls dramatically". What’s more, the Australian currency could test the levels below $0.6000 (2008 low) if the economy enters a recession. Harper sees as a 30% chance of that by 2015. “There are a lot of headwinds ahead for the Australian dollar,” Harper sais. “We can’t rely on China, which we have for the last four or five years. China’s growth is going to be 5 percent in a couple of years. We are in a downward spiral.” Chart. Monthly AUD/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/555

EUR/USD: not a day to sell EUR/USD is consolidating in the $1.3395/55 area. Despite weaker-than-expected US data, many traders think that the Fed will begin reducing monetary stimulus in September. The bulls feel uneasy due to the concerns about emerging markets and tensions in Syria. Resistance is at $1.3400, $1.3427 (Aug.21 high) and $1.3452 (Aug. 20 high). Support is at $1.3347 (61.8% Fibo), $1.3328 and $1.3300. The market players are waiting for the release of German Ifo business climate index at 08:00 GMT (forecast: 107.1; previous: 106.2). Westpac: “A decent German IFO survey would add to the case for a EUR/USD test of $1.3500 though progress is slowed by broad USD resilience. Greece lingers on the horizon but for the most part sovereign debt is not a near term market concern. Our multi-week bias remains to sell this rally but not this week.” Credit Agricole: Today is also not a day to sell EUR as surprise in a positive direction may come from the euro zone’s data releases. It’s not all bullish for EUR, however.Technical indicators suggest that upside EUR/USD momentum is fading while Greek jitters could return as the Troika returns on September 16. Moreover, speculative market EUR positioning has risen to its highest since early February, leaving no more scope for short covering. Chart. H4 EUR/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/554

Trade signals from Danske Bank EUR/USD: Long at $1.3324 with a target of $1.3427 and a stop at $1.3293 USD/JPY: Long at 98.40 with a target of 100.45 and a stop at 97.80 GBP/USD: Buy at $1.5540 with a target of $1.5674 and a stop at $1.5490 AUD/USD: Short at $0.9046 with a target of $0.8848 and a stop at $0.9104 USD/CAD: Long at 1.0515 with a target of 1.0609 and a stop at 1.0469 http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/553

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3250, $1.3260, $1.3275, $1.3280, $1.3400, $1.3420, $1.3450; GBP/USD: $1.5550, $1.5590; USD/JPY: 96.50, 97.00, 97.50, 98.00, 98.25, 98.30, 99.00, 99.45, 99.50, 100.00; USD/CHF: 0.9250; AUD/USD: $0.8925, $0.8950, $0.9000, $0.9025, $0.9070, $0.9130. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/394

August 27: Asian session EUR/USD is quietly trading in the $1.3360/90 range, now staying flat at $1.3370. The only and main release in the EZ today will be the German Ifo business climate at 8:00 GMT (the index is expected to improve). GBP/USD moved a little higher to $1.5590 before returning to $1.5560. USD/CAD strengthened to 1.0525. Asian stocks fell amid a freefall in the currencies of India and Indonesia, and as tensions in Syria escalated. USD/JPY had slid almost to 98.00 earlier today. Then the pair tried to recover, but got capped by 98.40. Yen strengthened as investors increased demand for it as a safe haven. USD/CHF is consolidating above the support at 0.9200. AUD/USD fell to $0.8960. Australia’s dollar declined as volatility headed for the highest close in six weeks, damping demand for the currency. NZD/USD dropped back to the levels just above $0.7800. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/393

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EUR/USD: Elliot wave analysis Monthly. The pair may have finished forming the wave B of the rising Zigzag А-В-С. Wave B is in the form of the Triple Three [w]-[x]-[y]-[x]-[z]. EUR/USD currently keeps forming wave C. Let’s analyze the wave’s structure in detail. Chart. Monthly EUR/USD Daily. The wave [2] which is shown on the previous picture is an (a)-(b)-© Zigzag. The wave (b) of this Zigzag is complete and is in the form of widening horizontal triangle. In the near term we expect a decline in the wave (с). Chart. Daily EUR/USD H4. Here’s the detailed marking of the wave e of (b). We are probably witnessing a start of a new downtrend. We expect the pair to decline. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Roman Petuchov for FBS http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/549

EUR: factors to watch (August 27-30) http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/390

USD: factors to watch (August 26-30) http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/388

Trade signals from Danske Bank EUR/USD: Long at $1.3324 with a target of $1.3427 and a stop at $1.3293 USD/JPY: Long at 99.00 and a stop at 98.38 GBP/USD: Buy at $1.5540 with a target of $1.5674 and a stop at $1.5490 USD/CHF: Sell at 0.9245 with a target of 0.9130 and a stop a 0.9295 AUD/USD: Short at $0.9046 with a target of $0.8848 and a stop at $0.9104 USD/CAD: Long at 1.0515 with a target of 1.0609 and a stop at 1.0469 http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/542

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3315, $1.3335, $1.3350, $1.3360, $1.3420; USD/JPY: 97.00, 98.00, 98.50, 100.00; AUD/USD: $0.8925, $0.9150; USD/CHF: 0.9350; USD/CAD: 1.0400, 1.0450, 1.0460, 1.0465, 1.0570; EUR/GBP: 0.8555. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/387

August 26: Asian session US dollar finds itself under pressure ahead of the durable goods orders data due today at 12:30 GMT (forecast: -3.0%; previous: +3.9%). EUR/USD is quietly trading in the $1.3375/90 range as Friday’s growth attempt was capped by the $1.3400 mark. There are no releases scheduled in the euro zone for today, so watch the data in the US session. European officials keep giving contradictive comments: according to ECB’s Demetriades, a rate cut is ‘still in the cards’. GBP/USD is consolidating in the $1.5560/85 range after the Friday’s volatile trade. British banks are closed for a holiday today. USD/JPY formed a spinning top at the resistance line on Friday and is trading in the 98.60 area after an initial testing of 98.80. In Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said today that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will make a decision on whether to raise the country’s sales tax by early October. USD/CHF is consolidating around 0.9220 after sliding from 0.9250 on Friday. AUD/USD keeps pushing at resistance in the $0.9040 area. NZD/USD rose by 30 pips above $0.7800. Aussie and kiwi went up as Chinese stocks gain momentum on soothing comments from the nation’s statistics service. USD/CAD spiked to hit a 1.5-month high at 1.0568 on Friday and declined to 1.0500 today. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/386

FBS Pro winners share secrets of Forex success Demo Contest FBS Pro is a real chance for traders to become true Forex professionals and win money funds from FBS. On the 13th of August our third Demo Competition started and last contest winners wished luck to all the participants and shared their own secrets of highly profitable trading 1 place Peng Changhang a trader from China who increased his balance up to 815675.51 USD! How long are you engaged in trading? How has it turned out that you have got acquainted with exchange trading? I have been trading Forex for about 2 years. My friend told me about Forex Exchange Trading. What currency pair do you prefer to trade? Why? I prefer currency pairs without USD. Please tell us about your impressions of participation in «FBS Pro» contest. I used all the funds I had in the trading because that was demo account and I wouldn’t have lost anything anyway. 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What trading strategy did you use during the contest «FBS Pro»? I used candle analysis and maximum risk. What qualities should a trader possess to be successful in trading? Discipline and patience. What advice could you give to beginners? Hurry up unhurriedly. 3 place Geger Eko prastiyo a trader from Indonesia who increased his balance up to 583258.39 USD! How long are you engaged in trading? How has it turned out that you have got acquainted with exchange trading? I have been trading for one year and 3 month. What currency pair do you prefer to trade? Why? I can trade any currency pair because my trading system is good for all of them. Please tell us about your impressions of participation in «FBS Pro» contest. I joined the contest because i love to test my trading skills competing with other traders. What trading strategy did you use during the contest «FBS Pro»? My trading strategy uses the moving average and Bollinger Band. The key is to follow the trend strictly. What qualities should a trader possess to be successful in trading? I think everyone can succeed in trading. Of course, they must practice in demo account first. But the key for success in trading is to follow the trend and control one’s emotions. What advice could you give to beginners? I would say to a beginner trader that none of successful traders make money in their first year of trading. Trading is a hard work. But those who never surrender will definitely achieve their goals and dreams. Never give up. Trade using your own system and follow the trend. 4 place Suresh Buddika a trader from Sri Lanka who increased his balance up to 435336.08 USD! How long are you engaged in trading? How has it turned out that you have got acquainted with exchange trading? I’ve been trading for two years. What currency pair do you prefer to trade? Why? Usually I trade EUR/USD and EUR/JPY, because of their fast movement. Please tell us about your impressions of participation in «FBS Pro» contest. I enjoyed the contest and I think that I improved my trading skills significantly. What trading strategy did you use during the contest «FBS Pro»? I use candlestick pattern and day trend. What qualities should a trader possess to be successful in trading? Take your time to think through your trading strategy, don’t hurry. What advice could you give to beginners? Read articles and study the Market. 5 place Natrioni Zulfano a trader from Indonesia who increased his balance up to 250890.21 USD! How long are you engaged in trading? How has it turned out that you have got acquainted with exchange trading? I have been trading for 3 years. What currency pair do you prefer to trade? Why? I use many different currency pairs in my trading. As for my they are the same. Please tell us about your impressions of participation in «FBS Pro» contest. I’ve been participating in FBS’s contests for a long time. They are very interesting and exciting. 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USD/CAD: waiting for CPI USD/CAD is trading around the 6-week high of $1.0567 ahead of Canada inflation data. Figures are expected to show that consumer prices to have edged up marginally in July. Loonie fell to its lowest level in six weeks as a report yesterday showed retail sales shrank more than forecast in June, adding to signs of economic slowdown in Canada. GMP Securities (NY): The retail sales are just icing on the cake for the loonie.The retail-sales number along with the Ivey and jobs data and wholesale sales figures suggest the Canadian economy faces headwinds, not unlike other developed-market economies, so that is going to be somewhat weighing on the loonie. Chart. Daily USD/CAD

EUR/USD: daily update EUR/USD formed a hammer yesterday closing above support at $1.3350. After the initial dip today the bulls are trying to push the pair higher. Yet, there’s a band of resistance at $1.3365/80. If euro breaks higher, it will be able to test $1.3410/27 and probably $1.3450. Further resistance is at $1.3488 and $1.3520. On the downside, support is at $1.3347, $1.3335 and the most important one, at $1.3300. SEB Bank: “Yesterday’s attempt lower was responded to in the expected support area. Players face a recent both-sides rejection when they come in today and the outcome is obscured.” Commerzbank: “There’s a negative divergence on the daily MACD, so a top may be formed at $1.3450. Only a drop through the next lower $1.3208/1.3188 support area will mean that a significant top has indeed been made.” The pair may challenge highs and break higher (to $1.3520 and $1.3711), but the bank doesn’t consider such scenario very likely. Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ is neutral EUR/USD and sees spot ranging in the $1.3200/1.3500 region ahead. German economic growth in Q2 was confirmed at 0.7%. There is little left of the calendar for the pair today except US new home sales at 14:00 GMT. The reading may decline after its spectacular increase last month. Chart. H4 EUR/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/539

GBP/USD: waiting for GDP As expected, GBP/USD found support at $1.5575. The market players are waiting for the confirmation that UK GDP gained 0.6% in Q2. The data is due at 08:30 GMT and will be accompanied by BBA mortgage approvals and business investment which are expected to improve. In the US watch new home sales release at 14:00 GMT. Note, however, that sterling breached the wedge, so the bears may continue pulling down. Important support lies at $1.5515/00 (200-day MA, 23.6% Fibo) ahead of $1.5430/20 and $1.5370. Resistance is at $1.5640, $1.5700, $1.5750 (200-week MA). Chart. H4 GBP/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/536

Trade signals from Danske Bank EUR/USD: Long at $1.3324 with a target of $1.3427 and a stop at $1.3293 USD/JPY: Raise buy to 98.20 with a target of 99.95 and a stop at 97.50 GBP/USD: Buy lower USD/CHF: Possibly sell AUD/USD: Sell at $0.9046 with a target of $0.8848 and a stop at $0.9104 USD/CAD: Buy at 1.0450 with a target of 1.0609 and a stop at 1.0390 http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/535

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3225, $1.3315, $1.3335, $1.3400, $1.3450; GBP/USD: $1.5500, $1.5570, $1.5575, $1.5600; USD/JPY: 97.65, 98.00, 98.50, 100.00; USD/CHF: 0.9300; AUD/USD: $0.8925, $0.9000, $0.9050, $0.9125; USD/CAD: 1.0390, 1.0440, 1.0450, 1.0460, 1.0465, 1.0515; NZD/USD: $0.8025; EUR/JPY: 130.50, 131.00, 132.00; EUR/AUD: 1.4550. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/385

August 23: Asian session US dollar is poised for a weekly gain against most major peers as economic data supported the case for the Fed to reduce stimulus as early as next month Euro growth remains subdued this week after the EUR/USD pair touched $1.3450 on Tuesday. Today the pair is trading in the negative territory around $1.3330, but holds above the Thursday’s low at $1.3300: yesterday the pair formed a narrow candle with a long lower shadow, supported by weak US jobless claims. There are no important data releases in the EZ today. The ECB’s Nowotny made an important comment today, saying the good economic news removes need for rate cut. USD/JPY rose to 99.00. EUR/JPY rose to 1-month high at 132.33. Nikkei 225 rose by almost 3%. Yen weakened before the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks tomorrow at the Federal Reserve’s annual monetary conference in Jackson Hole. GBP/USD is calmly trading around the yesterday’s close level ($1.5600/5575 range) following the recent sharp drop from $1.5715. Watch the UK second estimate Q2 GDP at 8:30 GMT (forecast and prior: +0.6% q/q). USD/CHF is up at 0.9250 after yesterday’s spike to 0.9290. Asian markets traded mostly in the green, following the recovery seen in global equities on Thursday and on a new round of rumors that the People’s Bank of China may cut the reserve ratio requirements (RRR) towards the end of the year. AUD/USD is a bit on the upside, but below resistance at $0.9040. NZD/USD also tried to move higher, but was limited around $0.7860. USD/CAD keeps conquering new highs, currently trading at $1.0545. Canada will release inflation data at 12:30 GMT. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/384

Gold: technical picture Gold price is consolidating in the $13185/50 range this week. XAU/USD is calmly waiting for the FOMC meeting minutes. Fed tapering hints could pressure the bullion price. As can be seen from the daily chart, XAU/USD is now trading at the lower border of the bearish 2011-2013 channel. Earlier in the summer gold broke lower, touching a three-year low at $1180, but is now showing some signs of reversal. On a monthly chart one may see that the price is supported by a strong bullish Ichimoku Cloud. Resistance is seen at 1385, 1425 and 1485, while support lies at 1340, 1275, 1205 and 1180. Chart. Weekly XAU/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/528

GBP/USD: daily update GBP/USD almost reached $1.5700 yesterday ($1.5695), but then closed lower, at $1.5664. As for the economic data released in Britain today, the public net borrowing wasn’t as low as analysts hoped, but CBI industrial orders in August came significantly better than expected. Pound is approaching $1.5700 on the news. All eyes are now at US housing data at 14:00 GMT and the FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT. Credit Agricole recommends going long on GBP. Commerzbank says that that GBP/USD is still expected to hit the uptrend channel resistance line at $1.5739, a rise above which will open the way to $1.5750 (200-week MA). In their view, the outlook for GBP will remain positive above last week’s minimum of $1.5420. Note, however, that pound is overbought and there’s divergence on H1 and H4 MACD. In addition, GBP is trading at the upper border of a rising channel since July, so a correcting in the pair seems quite likely. Support is at $1.5630, $1.5607, $1.5575 and $1.5515 (200-day MA). Chart. H4 GBP/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/524

EUR/USD: daily update EUR/USD reached $1.3450 yesterday, then consolidated above June high at $1.3415 and slid below this level to $1.3380. The single currency closed on Tuesday at the highest level since Feb. Credit Agricole expects euro to test $1.3450 today. Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ warn that “the greater risk tonight appears to be a conclusion that tapering might come a little later than September, which leaves the dollar vulnerable to some further near-term selling versus the majors.” Danske Bank points out that potential downside for the pair is limited as QE tapering in itself is not enough to start a bigger dollar appreciation which will require support from relative rates. Resistance is at $1.3415, $1.3450, $1.3500 and $1.3520. Support is at $1.3380, $1.3345, $1.3310. Chart. Daily EUR/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/525

Morgan Stanley: time to buy USD/JPY Strategists at Morgan Stanley went long on USD/JPY yesterday, opening a position at 97.00 with a target of 106.00 and a stop at 95.75. They believe that conditions for JPY weakness are now back in place. The BoJ has come under increasing pressure to accompany a sales tax increase with further monetary easing. Chart. Daily USD/JPY http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/526

UBS: sell AUD/USD AUD/USD extends the downside on Wednesday, testing the levels below the yesterday’s support at $0.9030. UBS recommends selling AUD/USD on a daily close below $0.9040, targeting $0.8550 and with stop initially placed at $0.9250. They point that the bearish pressure persists below the key resistance of $0.9210. Chart. Daily AUD/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/522

Trade signals from Danske Bank EUR/USD: Buy at $1.3410 with a target of $1.3520 and a stop at $1.3354 USD/JPY: Sell at 97.85 with a target of 95.92 and a revised stop at 97.89 GBP/USD: Long at $1.5617 with a target of $1.5753 and a stop at $1.5607 USD/CHF: Sell at 0.9207 with a target of 0.9056 and a stop at 0.9255 AUD/USD: Look to sell USD/CAD: Short at 1.0345 with a target of 1.0170 and a stop at 1.0405 http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/521