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Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3325, $1.3350, $1.3400; GBP/USD: $1.5575, $1.5650; USD/JPY: 97.00, 97.50, 97.60, 99.00; USD/CHF: 0.9200, 0.9300; AUD/USD: $0.9050, $0.9100, $0.9200; USD/CAD: 1.0315, 1.0370, 1.0380, 1.0400; EUR/JPY: 131.00.

August 21: Asian session US dollar rose versus its Asia-Pacific counterparts as investors await the release today of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting (18:00 GMT) for signals on when it may curtail monetary stimulus. Also pay attention to the existing home sales release at 14:00 GMT. EUR/USD is consolidating above $1.3400 after having soared to $1.3452 on Tuesday (highest since February). There are no data releases scheduled in euro zone for today. GBP/USD is trading quietly in the $1.5650/70 range. Yesterday the pair reached a 2-month high of $1.5695. Today UK is scheduled to release public sector net borrowing data (8:30 GMT) and CBI industrial order expectations (10:00 GMT). USD/JPY rose to resistance at 97.65 after hitting 96.90 yesterday. There was a jump in yen after Japan’s nuclear regulator raised the threat level for an August 19 storage tank leak at Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s Fukushima plant. Then, however, the pair turned up again as Nikkei 225 turned into positive in the final hours of the Asian trading session. USD/CHF closed yesterday at the minimum level since February at 0.9170 breaking below an important support line. Watch Swiss monthly Statistical Bulletin at 07:00 GMT and then focus on the FOMC minutes for further clues. AUD/USD slid to $0.9018. NZD/USD hit $0.7907. Aussie and kiwi are declining versus the greenback for the third day in a row. Today the currencies were dented by weakness in Asian equities. USD/CAD holds around the daily highs of 1.0425. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/376

Positive views on EUR EUR/USD has once again reached $1.3400. Credit Agricole says that there’s scope for EUR/USD to trend back to $1.3600 and above over the coming few weeks. The specialists justify their assumption by several reasons: The ECB’s forward guidance is unlikely to cap medium- and long term rates if incoming growth data continue to improve. The market has already priced in the scenario, according to which the Federal Reserve will start tapering QE in September, so US yields have little scope for further growth. Watch German GDP and business activity data as well as the release of the FOMC minutes from the July meeting. ANZ points out that there are some signs that economic growth in the euro area is starting to stabilize. “Recent gains continue to appear relatively impulsive and could suggest an early and full test of broader range resistance in the $1.3700 area,” says the bank. Commerzbank says that the increase above June high at $1.3415 would suggest ongoing strength to 1.3500/20 where they expect euro to falter. “Only a drop through the 1.3208/1.3188 support area will alleviate upside pressure,” says the bank. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/519

EUR/JPY: advice from Danske EUR/JPY is moving sideways around 130.00. Yesterday the pair tested a 2-week high at 131.00, but then failed to close above the resistance line connecting July and August high. Euro was supported by the comments from Bundesbank which suggested that the ECB’s pledge to cut interest rates could be changed, but then hit as Japanese stocks fell, boosting demand for yen as a safe haven. Support lies at 129.80, 129.40 and 128.90. Resistance is at 130.50, 130.90, 131.11 (July 2 high) and 131.94. Danske Bank suggests buying EUR/JPY at 129.80 for a 131.10 objective with a stop at 128.89. Chart. Daily EUR/JPY http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/518

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3300, $1.3325, $1.3350, $1.3400; GBP/USD: $1.5575, $1.5635, $1.5640, $1.5650, $1.5645; USD/JPY: 97.00, 98.00, 98.25, 98.40, 98.50, 99.00; USD/CHF: 0.9200, 0.9300; AUD/USD: $0.8900, $0.9170, $0.9180, $0.9200, $0.9250; USD/CAD: 1.0295, 1.0350.

August 20: Asian session EUR/USD is up by about 25 pips to $1.3355. Yesterday the single currency was capped below $1.3380. Euro is well supported ahead of the release of the manufacturing and services data on Thursday that may add to evidence of the region’s strengthening recovery from a 6-quarter contraction. Today watch German PPI at 06:00 GMT. GBP/USD is consolidating in the $1.5650 area, below yesterday’s high of $1.5673. USD/JPY is trading in the 97.40 area after testing 97.86 earlier today. USD/CHF slid to 0.9225 after it failed to rise above 0.9280 on Monday. USD/CAD rose approaching resistance at 1.0380. AUD/USD reached $0.9233 yesterday, but then closed just above $0.9100. The pair’s currently probing this level to the downside. Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s August meeting signaled further interest-rate cuts remain a possibility. NZD/USD failed to close above the daily Ichimoku Cloud. The pair peaked to $0.8162, but then slid down and is now trading below $0.8000. New Zealand’s dollar slid after the central bank governor Graeme Wheeler said the currency was overvalued. US dollar generally feels rather well as Treasury yields climbed to a 2-year high yesterday and as investors await FOMC meeting minutes due tomorrow for clues on when the Fed will reduce stimulus. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/373

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AUD: factors to watch (August 19-23) http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/371

JPY: factors to watch (August 19-23) http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/370

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EUR: factors to watch (August 19-23) http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/369

USD: factors to watch (August 19-23) http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/368

CFTC: USD longs fall for the 4th week Here are the essentials of the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on August 16 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a week ended on August 13. The value of the dollar’s net long position declined from $21.62B on a week ended August 6 to $17.62B in a week ended August 13. Large speculators have been reducing long USD bets for the fourth consecutive week. EUR. Market players were bullish on EUR for the second week, with net long contracts totaling 16K , up from 6K in the previous week. GBP. GBP net shorts slightly increased. JPY. JPY net shorts declined by 6K. CHF. CHF has switched to net longs. CAD. CAD net shorts kept contracting for a sixth week in a row. This time there was a small decline by 1K. AUD. AUD net shorts contracted to the lowest level in a month. NZD. NZD has switched to small net longs. It’s necessary to note that the figures cited above are always a week old at the time of their release. Never the less, CFTC data gives a good oversight into how the market is positioned and if/how these positions are being unwound. Although the CME speculators represent a small fraction of trading in the currency markets, their trades are widely seen as typical of hedge fund investors' currency movements.

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3200, $1.3285, $1.3310, $1.3400, $1.3405; GBP/USD: $1.5600, $1.5615, $1.5620, $1.5650, $1.5655, $1.5700; USD/JPY: 96.80, 97.00, 97.50, 97.75, 98.00, 98.25, 99.25, 99.75; USD/CHF: 0.9200, 0.9220, 0.9250, 0.9260; AUD/USD: $0.9100; USD/CAD: 1.0350, 1.0400; EUR/GBP: 0.8550; AUD/NZD: 1.1455.

August 19: Asian session EUR/USD didn’t manage last week to reach August highs at $1.3400. Today the pair’s trading on the downside, though above $1.3300. Euro’s supported before German data this week (Tuesday and Thursday) that may show the currency bloc’s largest economy is gaining momentum. GBP/USD rose a bit to $1.5620 after opening the week with a gap down. Sterling is below Friday’s high at $1.5657. Britain released mixed data showing a monthly decline, but a yearly growth in house price. USD/JPY is consolidating around 97.60. Yen fell earlier on data showing Japan’s trade deficit widened in July. USD/CHF is moving sideways below 0.9280. AUD/USD reached 55-day MA at $0.9230. Australian dollar climbed amid speculation that the minutes tomorrow of the Reserve Bank’s last meeting will signal no hurry to reduce interest rates further. NZD/USD reached the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud at $0.8120. USD/CAD is at 1.0330 after dipping to 1.0315 earlier today. As for the greenback, the main theme will be the minutes of the Fed’s July policy meeting due later this week.

Commerz: USD/JPY & AUD/USD view USD/JPY Commerzbank strategists expect USD/JPY to slide to the 93.75 support area in the coming weeks. In their view, the pair will remain under bearish pressure while the 99.97 level holds (4-month tren resistance). Chart. Daily USD/JPY AUD/USD As for the Aussie, Commerz remains bearish and expects AUD/USD to retest $0.9040/9000 support zone (early and mid-July lows) in the near term. Longer-term downside target is seen at 0.8550 (50% retracement of the move up from 2008). Strategists will remain bearish below the $0.9390/9405 resistance (2011 low and 2009 high). Chart. Daily AUD/USD

Morgan Stanley: buy USD/CHF Strategists at Morgan Stanley recommend buying USD/CHF from 0.9290 with a target of 0.9700 and a stop at 0.9160. "CHF is a cheap way to fund long USD positions. SNB Danthine’s comments earlier this week support our view that low Swiss rates and the SNB’s floor arelikely to remain in place for the foreseeable future", they say. Chart. Daily USD/CHF

Trade signals from Danske Bank EUR/USD: Buy at $1.3305 with a target of $1.3456 and a stop at $1.3255 USD/JPY: Sell at 97.90 with a target of 96.40 and a stop at 98.49 GBP/USD: Buy at $1.5617 with a target of $1.5753 and a stop at $1.5565 USD/CHF: Look to sell at 0.9320/30 AUD/USD: Long at $0.9090, with a target of $0.93201 and a stop at $0.9034 USD/CAD: Short from 1.0345, with a target of 1.0170 and a stop at 1.0405

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: USD/JPY: 97.00, 97.10, 97.50, 98.00, 98.10, 98.90, 99.00; EUR/USD: $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3270, $1.3300, $1.3395, $1.3400; GBP/USD: $1.5400, $1.5500; USD/CHF: 0.9360; AUD/USD: $0.9100, $0.9105, $0.9150, $0.9160, $0.9165, $0.9200; EUR/CHF: 1.2420, 1.2430, 1.2550; EUR/JPY: 130.00; GBP/JPY: 151.25.

August 16: Asian session On Thursday trading was quite volatile. The greenback initially strengthened on positive US data like lower unemployment claims, but then sharply weakened as the next bunch of figures (industrial production, New York and Philadelphia manufacturing indexes) came lower than expected. Today US dollar recovered a bit before reports forecast to show housing starts rebounded and consumer confidence increased to a 6-year high (12:30 GMT). EUR/USD tested $1.3205 yesterday before jumping to $1.3362. The pair’s trading in the $1.3340 area at the moment of writing. The euro area will release inflation data today at 09:00 GMT which may show inflation is contained. In addition, reports due next week may indicate a pickup manufacturing and services expansion. GBP/USD jumped yesterday by about 140 pips to $1.5650. Today pound’s correcting to the $1.5600 area. USD/JPY recovered from a three-day low at 97.05 to 97.75. USD/CHF edged slightly higher to 0.9275 after the yesterday’s sharp dollar selloff. AUD/USD slipped to $0.9150 after a test of $0.9180 earlier in Asia. NZD/USD dropped briefly below $0.8060 as Wellington in New Zealand was hit by a series of earthquakes. The New Zealand Stock has re-opened after temporarily closure. USD/CAD slid to levels just above 1.0300 yesterday and is correcting a bit up today. Watch Canadian retail sales at 12:30 GMT.

USD/JPY: daily update USD/JPY stalled yesterday at resistance in the 98.40/50 area. Today the pair is trading on the downside, though supported by the Ichimoku conversion line (red line), 50% Fibo at 97.65 and the middle of yesterday’s daily candle at 97.55. There’s also support at 97.40, 97.20 and 97.65. The confusing news about Japanese tax reforms create uncertainty. All eyes are on US data due today at 12:30 and 14:00 GMT. In our view, the odds are that support holds and the greenback retests resistance at 98.50 and probably 98.75. Chart. Daily USD/JPY

EUR/GBP: negative picture EUR/GBP slid today below the 100-day MA (0.8540) and the daily Ichimoku Cloud (0.8535). The picture looks quite negative. Euro is now testing yesterday’s low at 0.8527. A slide below this point might provoke a decline to 0.8485/70 and then possibly to 0.8450/00. Chart. Daily EUR/GBP

GBP/USD extends growth On Thursday British pound found support on better-than-expected July UK retail sales (+1.1% m/m vs. forecast +0.7% and June + 0.2%). The year-on-year reading came at 3.0% y/y vs. 2.5% consensus and beating previous 2.2% reading. GBP/USD jumped to $1.5590, extending the upside and testing the levels above the $1.5575 resistance. However, the move was not strong enough to break above the $1.5600 hurdle. We are ready to buy the cable on a break above $1.5600/10 area (May highs). Near-term support lies at $1.5550, $1.5520 and $1.5500/1.5490. Chart. H1 GBP/USD

Trade signals from Danske Bank EUR/USD: Short at $1.3275, with a target of $1.3203 and a stop at $1.3318 USD/JPY: Long at 97.90, with a target of 99.15 and a stop at 97.39 GBP/USD: Long from $1.5435, with a target of $1.5649 and a stop at $1.5415 USD/CHF: Long at 0.9325, with a target of 0.9395 and a stop at 0.9297 AUD/USD: Long at $0.9047, with a target of $0.9221 and a stop at $0.8996 USD/CAD: Short from 1.0345, with a target of 1.0170 and a stop at 1.0405