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Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3280, $1.3290; GBP/USD: $1.5500, $1.5550; USD/JPY: 95.25, 96.00, 96.20, 96.35, 96.50, 97.80, 97.95, 98.60; AUD/USD: $0.9000, $0.9020, $0.9025, $0.9045, $0.9150; USD/CAD: 1.0375, 1.0380, 1.0425, 1.0450; AUD/JPY: 86.50; EUR/GBP: 0.8525, 0.8620, 0.8625.

August 9: Asian session US dollar suffered from continuing weakness this week. The greenback was hurt as US payrolls data which fell short of market expectations creating uncertainty over how soon the Fed will start reducing its stimulus. EUR/USD reached yesterday a 7-week high of $1.3400 and is trading now in the $1.3380 area. Euro is in demand before an Aug 14 report analysts said will show the currency region’s GDP returned to growth in Q2. Today there are some releases of medium importance like French industrial production and budget balance at 06:45 GMT. GBP/USD rose yesterday to $1.5574. Today sterling is little changed around $1.5540. Britain will release its trade balance at 08:30 GMT. USD/JPY slipped to 96.30 following a growth attempt capped at 97.00. USD/CHF is trading sideways around 0.9200. AUD/USD dropped to $0.9080 following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s statement on monetary policy for August, but quickly found support on lower-than-expected Chinese CPI (+2.7% y/y) and strong industrial production (+9.7% y/y), recovering to session highs around $0.9133. NZD/USD is trading sideways slightly below the $0.8000 mark. USD/CAD slid yesterday from the levels around 1.0430 to the area just above 1.0300. Now the greenback is in the 1.0325 zone. Watch for Canadian labor market data at 12:30 GMT. Analysts expect a gain in employment after the previous contraction.

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BofA: bearish on EUR/USD According to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the US dollar is now forming a base, returning to a larger bullish trend. In their view, a daily close of EUR/USD below $1.3166 would confirm the top and a turn lower with targets at $1.2457 and below. A break above the trend line resistance at $1.3322 would return the pair into the consolidation phase. The bearish view would be invalidated only on a close above $1.3418. Chart. H4 EUR/USD

USD/JPY: why tax matters? USD/JPY has found support at 97.83 today (bottom of the daily Ichimoku Cloud and close support line from November) and returned above the opening level to the levels around 98.50. In our view, the chance for rebound stands as long as the pair’s staying above 97.50 (50% retracement of the advance from June to July. Initial target on the upside is at 99.70. There’s resistance at 98.60/70 (100-day MA, 200-hour MA, 38.2% Fibo, top of the daily Cloud) and 99.25. On the downside, below 97.65 the greenback will be vulnerable for a decline to 96.70 and probably lower, to 96.00 and 95.60. All in all, the market lacks certainty, so we may see more of the sideways trading between the mentioned key levels. Analysts at RBS and Nomura don’t expect the Bank of Japan to ease policy on Friday. Yet, they think that it’s time to buy USD/JPY. The specialists point out that the most important question of debate in Japan is now the consumption tax hike. As the BOJ’s Governor Kuroda supports such step, it means that the central bank is ready to ease its monetary policy in future. Chart. Daily USD/JPY

GBP/USD: daily update GBP/USD edged slightly higher to $1.5390 following the release of unexpectedly strong UK manufacturing figures. Manufacturing production rose by 1.9% m/m in April (forecast: 0.9%, previous: -0.7%). This is the highest reading since last summer. However, the British currency still has a lot of resistance ahead: $1.5390 (61.8% Fibo), $1.5400/15 and $1.5435 (July highs). There is a high chance that these levels will cap the upside. A break above here could open the way to $1.5525 and $1.5600. On the today’s agenda there is a UK NIESR GDP estimate (forecast: 0.6%). US will release trade balance and job openings data later in the day. Chart. H4 GBP/USD

EUR/USD: daily update EUR/USD is consolidating in a tight $1.3245/70 range on Tuesday (around 76.4% Fibo). As can be seen from the chart, the pair is gradually edging lower from the 2013 resistance trend line after having peaked at $1.3342 last week. We recommend selling the pair around the current levels. Support for the pair is seen at $1.3200, $1.3180 (last week’s low) and $1.3160. Resistance lies at $1.3300/15, $1.3340 and $1.3400/15. On the euro zone’s today’s economic agenda there are Italian Q2 GDP (recession persists) and German factory orders (improvement forecasted). US will release trade balance and job openings data later in the day. Chart. Daily EUR/USD

August 6: European session Data released today in the euro area was generally encouraging: EUR/USD spiked up to $1.3295, but then eased down to $1.3270. UK production data was also better than expected. GBP/USD reached $1.5392 before returning to the $1.5360 area.

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3050, $1.3125, $1.3150, $1.3285; GBP/USD: $1.5300; USD/JPY: 99.00 99.10 99.15 99.60 100.00; USD/CHF: 0.9200; AUD/USD: $0.8800, $0.9000, $0.9070; USD/CAD: 1.0370; NZD/USD: $0.7800; AUD/CAD: 0.9400; EUR/JPY: 129.85.

August 6: Asian session EUR/USD is trading at $1.3160/50. On Monday the pair failed to rose above $1.3300 due to the good ISM services PMI in the US. In Europe watch for Italian industrial production and preliminary GDP, as well as German factory orders (08-10:00 GMT). GBP/USD closed at $1.5350 yesterday and is now a bit below this level. Britain will release manufacturing and industrial production figures at 08:30 GMT. USD/JPY returned to 98.30 after a dip to 97.85 earlier in the session. USD/CHF recovered to 0.9280 following a dip to 0.9245. AUD/USD edged higher to $0.8990, extending the recovery from the yesterday’s low of $0.8850. As it was widely expected, RBA has cut the overnight cash rate by 0.25 points to 2.5%. It means that the Australian borrowing costs remain the highest in the developed world along with New Zealand. There were no hints from RBA on further rate cuts. Australia trade surplus increased to 0.60B, but came below the forecast of 0.80B. NZD/USD also keeps strengthening for a second day in a row, touching $0.7860 on Tuesday. In the US session New Zealand is scheduled to release weaker employment data. USD/CAD is at 1.0360 after it declined from yesterday’s high just above 1.0400. Canada will publish trade balance at 12:30 GMT. US trade data will come out at the same time.

AUD/USD: Elliot wave analysis Weekly. The pair keeps forming the wave III of the downside impulse. Chart. Weekly AUD/USD Daily. As we’ve expected, the pair has finished the wave (4) and kept declining in the wave (5). Chart. Daily AUD/USD H8. The wave (4) took form of a long horizontal correction. In the near term we expect a little decline in the wave (5). After that Australian dollar will start forming corrective wave [4], which may take form of a flat. Chart. H8 AUD/USD Roman Petuchov for FBS

USD/JPY: Elliot wave analysis Daily. The pair keeps forming a declining corrective wave 2. Chart. Daily USD/JPY H4. We are witnessing the formation of the wave (С) of the Zigzag in the waveа 2. At the moment the market has formed waves [1] and (2) of ©. If the marking is correct, in the near term we’ll see a strong bearish market. Chart. H4 USD/JPY H1. The detailed marking on H1 shows that the wave (2) took form of the А-В-С Zigzag. When this wave was over, we saw a beginning of the powerful movement in the wave (3). The pair will probably keep declining. Chart. H1 USD/JPY Roman Petuchov for FBS

GBP/USD: Elliot wave analysis Weekly. On the weekly chart there’s a global Zigzag A-B-C. The pair keeps forming the wave С which aims at the level 1.1 where the pair was last seen in 1985. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD H12. The wave (I) is complete. At the moment we are witnessing the formation of the wave (II). Chart. H12 GBP/USD H4. The wave (II) is probably taking form of a rising Zigzag. We are now witnessing the formation of the wave of b of this Zigzag. See the approximate trajectory on the picture. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Roman Petuchov for FBS

EUR/USD: Elliot wave analysis Monthly. The pair may have finished forming the wave B of the rising Zigzag А-В-С. Wave B is in the form of the Triple Three [w]-[x]-[y]-[x]-[z]. EUR/USD currently keeps forming wave C. Let’s analyze the wave’s structure in detail. Chart. Monthly EUR/USD Daily. Euro has almost finished forming corrective wave II. Chart. Daily EUR/USD H4. The wave II took form of the Zigzag. In the near term we expect rising wave (5) to end. After that we may see a new downtrend in the wave III. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Roman Petuchov for FBS

Trade signals from Danske Bank EUR/USD: Short at $1.3257 with a target of $1.3164 and a stop at $1.3313 GBP/USD: Buy at $1.5215 with a target of $1.5364 and a stop at $1.5140 USD/CHF: Buy at 0.9262 with a target of 0.9395 and a stop at 0.9226 AUD/USD: Sell at $0.8935 with a target of $0.8770 and a stop at $0.9015 USD/CAD: Long at 1.0290 with a target of 1.0445 and a revised stop at 1.0260

JPY: factors to watch (August 5-9) USD/JPY almost reached 100.00 last week, but then closed at 98.85 on Friday. Here are the most important releases which will influence the pair:

GBP: factors to watch (August 6-9)

USD: factors to watch (August 5-9)

EUR: factors to watch (August 6-9)

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3120, $1.3225, $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3370; GBP/USD: $1.5100, $1.5175; USD/JPY: 97.00, 97.50, 98.00, 99.00, 100.00, 100.50; AUD/USD: $0.8900, $0.9000, $0.9005, $0.9050, $0.9065; EUR/GBP: 0.8700.

August 5: Asian session US dollar is struggling to gain traction after data on Friday showed that US employers slowed their pace of hiring in July. EUR/USD is trading around the opening level at $1.3278 after it rose by more than 70 pips on Friday. Today watch for Spanish and Italian services PMI, euro zone’s final services PMI and the region’s retail sales. GBP/USD is in the $1.5270 area after it gained about 170 pips on Friday. Britain will also release services PMI. USD/JPY is trading to the downside, touching 98.65. The pair extends the decline from the Friday’s peak at 100.00. USD/CHF edged lower after touching the 0.9300 mark. AUD/USD touched a fresh low of $0.8850 before recovering to $0.8890. Market sentiment towards the Aussie remains bearish ahead of the tomorrow’s RBA meeting: the probability of a 0.25 bps rate cut is pretty high. Today’s data showed Australia retail sales came flat in June at 0.0% m/m (vs. +0.4% expected). NZD/USD opened the week with a large bearish gap at $0.7750, pressured by the news that China banned New Zealand contaminated milk powder imports. Later on kiwi recovered to $0.7790, partially filling the gap. USD/CAD edged up and is in the 1.0400 area. It’s a bank holiday in Canada today.

USD/JPY: daily update USD/JPY rose yesterday by almost 170 pips. Today the pair rose to 99.85. The greenback’s approaching resistance in the 100.00 area. Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ says that the outlook USD/JPY looks neutral ahead and is set to range between 97.50 and 100.50. The pair will be supported unless US NFP data comes much worse than expected. At the same time, the upside will be limited because of the lack of important news from Japan next week. Such outlook is in line with daily technical indicators. An increase above 100.50 is needed for the bulls to regain their strength. Bank of America Merrill Lynch will revise bearish outlook on USD/JPY if it rises above 100.15 (channel resistance). In this case the bank will target 101.55 and potentially 103.73. Chart. Daily USD/JPY

USD/CHF: Commerzbank USD/CHF rose yesterday by more than 100 pips and close above the 200-day MA at 0.9360. Analysts at Commerzbank say that the bulls have now strength to bring US dollar to the 55-day MA at 0.9440. At this point the specialists expect the pair to fail and reverse down. In their view, support lies at 0.9227 (July low) and 0.9130 (June low). If the pair manages to overcome 0.9440, it will target 0.9566 (March high) and 0.9750 (July high). Chart. Daily USD/CHF

EUR/USD: daily update EUR/USD made a big decline yesterday closing by 95 pips below the opening level. The pair has found support around $1.3200/3190. In our view, the bias is to the downside and will remain so until the single currency is trading below $1.3345. Euro has reached resistance line connecting February and June highs around $1.3325. Further support lies at $1.3180, $1.3160, $1.3106 and $1.3085. Resistance is at $1.3260, $1.3325/45 ahead of $1.3415. Still though, UBS says that the bullish trend is for now intact and potential is for the pair to move above $1.3302 to test the key resistance at $1.3417 as long as support at $1.3120 holds. Commerzbank underlines, that a close below $1.3205 is needed to alleviate upside pressure and for EUR/USD to target $1.3000. Chart. H4 EUR/USD