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Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3140, $1.3250, $1.3305, $1.3330; GBP/USD: $1.5425, $1.5515, $1.5545; USD/JPY: 95.80, 96.00, 97.10, 98.10, 98.90; USD/CHF: 0.9240; AUD/USD: $0.9100, $0.9180; USD/CAD: 1.0180; EUR/GBP: 0.8550, 0.8640, 0.8650; EUR/CHF: 1.2395; EUR/JPY: 131.85.

August 15: Asian session US dollar weakened versus most of its counterparts as St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said yesterday policy makers should be careful in changing course based solely on their economic forecasts thus cautioning cautioned against excessive optimism over the economy. Economists predict a report today will show gains in US consumer prices slowed in July (12:30 GMT). Don’t miss the weekly report on the labor market, followed by regional gauges of the manufacturing sector – NY Empire State and Philly Fed (the latter is due at 14:00 GMT) indices. EUR/USD recovered from $1.3250 to $1.3310, but then returned below $1.3300. No releases in the euro area today. French and Italian banks are closed for holidays. GBP/USD tested resistance line at $1.5540 and is now trading 20 pips below this level, at $1.5520. Pound’s on the upside for the second day before a report (08:30 GMT) that may show UK retail sales rose by 0.7% percent in July, from a 0.2% advance in the previous month. USD/JPY has first strengthened from lows around 97.75 to touch 98.30, but touched a daily low of 97.60 on the news that both Japan’s chief cabinet secretary Suga and Japan’s Finance Minister Aso denied the fact that PM Abe made any instructions on a corporate tax cut. AUD/USD found support at $0.9120 and strengthened to $0.9185 in the Asian trade. NZD/USD corrected slightly down after having reached a high of $0.8075 (highest since the end of July). New Zealand business manufacturing index rose to a record high of 59.5 in July (June reading revised up to 55.2). USD/CAD peaked at 1.0370 yesterday and slid to 1.0313 today. Canadian dollar benefited as the market’s sentiment improved on the news that the euro zone has finally emerged from recession.

AUD/NZD: sell the rallies AUD/NZD fell by 40 pips below 1.1400. New Zealand reported surprisingly good data today (retail sales gained 1.7% vs. 1.4% expected, while core retail sales increased by 2.3% vs. 1.3% expected). As for Australia, wage growth stayed at the slowest pace in more than 3 years. Westpac recommends selling AUD/NZD on bounces due to the difference in the nations’ monetary policy: “The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is going to start tightening in March; the Reserve Bank of Australia is cutting rates.” TD Securities points out that price signals are constructive on the weekly chart (two “hammer” like candle signals that point to a reversal which may be in process), but the broader trend remains lower and quite powerfully so, according to a range of trend momentum studies. Chart. H4 AUD/USD

BoA: USD/JPY will go up Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects a long-term USD/JPY bullish trend to resume. The specialists recommend buying the greenback on the pullbacks down (declines should not breach 96.80/94.90) targeting 105.80/106.00, potentially 109.80. Note that triangle resistance at 99.70 may be sticky in the near term. Chart. Daily USD/JPY

Trade signals from Danske Bank EUR/USD: Waiting for signals, possibly sell USD/JPY: Revised buy at 97.20 with an initial target of 98.78 and a stop at 96.86 GBP/USD: Stay long from $1.5435, with a target of $1.5616 and a stop at $1.5375 USD/CHF: Look to buy at 0.9290 AUD/USD: Buy at $0.9047, with a target of $0.9221 and a stop at $0.8996 USD/CAD: Stay short from 1.0345, with a target of 1.0170 and a stop at 1.0405

August 14: European session GBP/USD Cable jumped to $1.5500 as the negative GBP labor market forecasts didn't come true. Claimant count showed the biggest fall since May 2010. What's more, the previous reading was revised from -21.2K. Unemployment rate stayed unchanged. As for the BoE minutes, 9-0 members voted to keep interest rates and QE on hold 8-1 members voted for forward guidance framework EUR/USD Euro zone’s Q2 flash GDP rose by 0.3% q/q, beating the +0.2% estimate (prior: -0.2%). Indicator contracted by 0.7% y/y (estimate: -0.8% y/y, prior: -1.1%). EUR/USD stable around $1.3260. Source: Forex Factory

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3175; GBP/USD: $1.5400, $1.5600; USD/JPY: 97.45, 97.75, 97.85, 100.00; AUD/USD: $0.9035, $0.9080, $0.9175, $0.9200; EUR/GBP: 0.8620; EUR/CHF: 1.2375; EUR/JPY: 129.00.

August 14: Asian session The Dollar Index held a 3-day gain as encouraging figures released in the America on Tuesday increased expectations that the Fed will taper monetary stimulus in September. US data due tomorrow may show manufacturing in the New York region expanded at the fastest pace in 6 months and unemployment claims declined. EUR/USD keeps testing support at $1.3260. Yesterday euro fell as low as $1.3232, but then closed at $1.3260. Demand for the single currency was supported before a report which may show the region’s GDP rose ending the longest recession (09:00 GMT). GBP/USD is little changed at $1.5440. Yesterday the pair spiked up to $1.5512, but failed to hold there. UK is to release unemployment data and the MPC meeting minutes (08:30 GMT). USD/JPY closed above 98.00 yesterday after gaining more that 100 pips and is now trading in the 98.20 area. USD/CHF gained 70 pips yesterday and is trading on the upside at 0.9335 today. USD/CAD rose to 55-day MA at 1.0360. AUD/USD is down for the third day in a row and is trading below $0.9100. NZD/USD rose to $0.7980, up from the low of Tuesday at $0.7934. New Zealand’s data brought a positive surprise: retail sales gained 1.7% (forecast: 1.4%), while core retail sales increased by 2.3% (forecast: 1.3%).

BNPP: sell GBP ahead of UK labor data Strategists at BNP Paribas entered into a short GBP/USD targeting $1.5250. In their view, cable will lose ground on the back of the UK employment data on Wednesday. "We expect another solid drop in the claimant count, but the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 8%," BNP projects. "A firmer or even stable jobless rate should reinforce the perception that the rate is not yet trending towards the central bank’s threshold (unlike in the US), which should weigh on GBP", they add.

BoA: bullish on gold Analysts at Bank of America Merrill point out that spot gold is about to break higher. The bank targets $1,407/08 and potentially $1,450. Chart. Daily XAU/USD

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3150; GBP/USD: $1.5450, $1.5500; USD/JPY: 95.50 96.00 97.00 99.00; AUD/USD: $0.9000, $0.9050, $0.9150, $0.9220; USD/CAD: 1.0275.

Trade signals from Danske Bank EUR/USD: Long at $1.3336, with a target of $1.3456 and a stop at $1.3260 USD/JPY: Sell at 97.50, with a target of 95.92 and a stop at 98.05 GBP/USD: Buy at $1.5435, with a target of $1.5616 and a stop at $1.5375 USD/CHF: Short at 0.9270, with a target of 0.9056 and a stop at 0.9315 AUD/USD: Long at $0.9140, with a target of $0.9325 and a stop at $0.9080 USD/CAD: Short at 1.0345, with a target of 1.0170 and a stop at 1.0405

August 13: European session Euro zone released strong statistics at 9:00 GMT. EZ ZEW economic sentiment rose to the highest level since April 2010 (44.0 vs. forecast 37.4 and prior 32.8). German sentiment index came at a highest since March 2013 (42.0 vs. forecast 40.3 and prior 36.3). Euro zone industrial production grew by 0.7% m/m in June (forecast: +1.1%, prior: -0.2%). Figure missed the target, but reached the highest level since January. EUR/USD is trading at session highs around $1.3320 on these data increase expectations about tomorrow's EZ GDP. GBP/USD spiked down today to $1.5430 (see H1) and the rose to $1.5490, a level close to 55- and 100-hour MAs which are about to cross in a bearish manner. EUR/GBP is fluctuating around 0.8600. UK CPI came in line with expectations at 2.8% in July (prior: 2.9%). The core reading came at 2.0%, missing the median at 2.2% and lower from June’s 2.3%.

August 13: Asian session EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3300 area after it declined by about 20 pips yesterday. There’s plenty of important data to be released in Europe and the US today. Watch German ZEW economic sentiment (according to the forecasts, the index may rise to a 5-month high) and the euro zone’s industrial production figures at 09:00 GMT and US retail sales (!) and import prices at 12:30 GMT as well as business inventories at 14:00 GMT. GBP/USD is little changed at $1.5460 after declining from $1.5480 yesterday. Britain will release inflation data at 08:30 GMT. USD/JPY rose to 97.55. There was a headline today that Japanese Prime Minister Abe intends to cut corporate tax rate in order to offset negatives of sales tax hike. This is a positive factor for Nikkei and USD/JPY. Tonight’s data showed Japan core machinery orders contracted less than expected (-2.7% m/m vs. -7% expected). USD/CHF strengthened to 0.9265. Aussie and kiwi are trading under pressure for a second day in a row. AUD/USD strengthened to $0.9135 after having hit the $0.9100 mark earlier in the session. Australia July NAB business confidence came at -3 (prior: 0). NZD/USD is trading in the negative zone slightly below $0.8000. New Zealand is scheduled to release retail sales data tonight (forecast – improvement). USD/CAD keeps consolidating in the 1.0300 area.

Dear traders! Every day FBS analytical team prepares for you market reviews and trade recommendations. Here are some of the latest highlights: Trade Signals From Danske Bank it is a guideline for your trading. it was so close target JPY, Japan and the tax problem. FBS market news for the japanese outlook EUR: factors to watch (August 12-16) . Find out what will have an impact on the greenback this week Key currency options. As your guideline for daily market Find more Forex news & analytics at http://fxbazooka.com/ Have a profitable trade with FBS! Work with FBS , be friends with FBS and be successful! Fastest Growing Forex Broker Asia 2012 The Best Broker Asia 2012

Have a profitable trade with FBS! Work with FBS , be friends with FBS and be successful! Fastest Growing Forex Broker Asia 2012 The Best Broker Asia 2012

EUR/USD: Elliot wave analysis Monday, August 12, 2013 - 10:42 Monthly. The pair may have finished forming the wave B of the rising Zigzag А-В-С. Wave B is in the form of the Triple Three [w]-[x]-[y]-[x]-[z]. EUR/USD currently keeps forming wave C. Let’s analyze the wave’s structure in detail. Chart. Monthly EUR/USD Daily. Euro has almost finished forming corrective wave II. The critical level of this marking is shown on the picture with the red line. If the price crosses this line, the marking should be changed. In this case we’ll stick to an alternative scenario, according to which EUR/USD keeps forming the wave (b). Chart. Daily EUR/USD H4. The wave II looks complete. We expect a decline in the wave III. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Roman Petuchov for FBS http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-08-12/23188-eurusd-elliot-wave-analysis

AUD/USD: Elliot wave analysis Monday, August 12, 2013 - 07:43 Weekly. The pair keeps forming the wave III of the downside impulse. Chart. Weekly AUD/USD Daily. The pair has finished the wave [3], so now we are witnessing the formation of the corrective wave [4]. The fourth wave may take form of a long horizontal correction. Chart. Daily AUD/USD H8. Usually the fourth waves of an impulse are hard for trading as they are full of deceptive strong moves and can take an unpredictable shape. As a result, we recommend standing aside until the wave [4] is complete. Chart. H8 AUD/USD Roman Petuchov for FBS http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-08-12/23187-audusd-elliot-wave-analysis

USD/JPY: Elliot wave analysis Monday, August 12, 2013 - 07:41 Daily. The pair keeps forming a declining corrective wave 2 after a global uptrend in the wave 1. Chart. Daily USD/JPY H4. We are probably witnessing the formation of the (a)-(b)-© Zigzag. At the moment the pair’s forming the wave (с) of this Zigzag. Chart. H4 USD/JPY H1. As expected, last week the pair was declining. The greenback is likely to fall in the near term in the wave 5 of (3). After that there will be a corrective wave (4) which may take form of a flat (fourth waves are often horizontal). The approximate trajectory is shown on the picture. Chart. H1 USD/JPY Roman Petuchov for FBS http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-08-12/23186-usdjpy-elliot-wave-analysis

GBP/USD: Elliot wave analysis Monday, August 12, 2013 - 07:38 Weekly. On the weekly chart there’s a global Zigzag A-B-C. The pair keeps forming the wave С which aims at the level 1.1 where the pair was last seen in 1985. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD H12. The pair keeps forming corrective wave (II). Chart. H12 GBP/USD H4. The wave (II) is taking form of a rising Zigzag. We are now witnessing the second leg of this Zigzag – c. In the near term we expect a small corrective wave [4], which may take form of a flat. After that the market will rise a bit in the wave [5]. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Roman Petuchov for FBS http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-08-12/23185-gbpusd-elliot-wave-analysis

August 12: USD recovered Monday, August 12, 2013 - 05:41 The greenback strengthened before US data due tomorrow may show retail sales rose for a fourth month in a row, adding to the case for the Fed to reduce monetary stimulus. EUR/USD opened with a gap down at $1.3318, then rose to $1.3343 before returning lower, to $1.3325. EUR/JPY rose from a 6-week low below 128.00 before reports due on Tuesday and Wednesday that may show industrial production and GDP in the euro area rebounded. GBP/USD also opened with a gap down at $1.5483, the tested $1.5520 before returning below $1.5500. USD/JPY strengthened to 96.60 after a dip to 95.90. Japanese GDP disappointed: the nation's economy added only 0.6% vs. the forecast of 0.9% growth. Japan’s top companies reporting showed they doubled earnings in Q2 from a year earlier, exceeding already high forecasts and generating support for the economic recovery. Tonight Japan is scheduled to release core machinery orders data (forecast – negative) and the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting minutes. USD/CHF edged higher to 0.9240. AUD/USD opened the week at $0.9190, tried to strengthen, but was capped at $0.9225. NZD/USD opened the week with a small bearish gap. The growth attempt of the kiwi was contained by the Friday’s high of $0.8055. USD/CAD is trading below 1.0300. http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-08-12/23182-august-12-usd-strengthened

USD/JPY: bearish views (TDS, BoA) TD Securities: “USD/JPY has fallen sharply over the past month but downside risks remain. Spec positioning remains heavily short JPY and seasonal factors may just be about to bite a little harder”. Bank of America: “USD/JPY breached down its range. Stay near-term bearish for 95.25 (3-5m triangle/contracting range support), potentially 93.65/79. However, don’t lose sight of the bigger picture. This multi-month range ultimately resolves higher for a resumption of the long term bull trend, with year-end targets seen to the 107/108 area.” Citigroup Securities: “A fall in risk/reversal spreads in the options market implies there is strong demand for dollar puts by short-term players. In terms of technicals, USD/JPY has not recovered even to its five-day average (97.13). A potential target in the near term would be a 76.4% of its rally from June to early July at 95.59.” Chart. Daily USD/JPY

Stock market: an update Nikkei closed up by 0.07% at 13,615.19. European stocks following Asia in opening higher on a generally positive Chinese data. Data from Bloomberg

EUR/USD: resistance ahead EUR/USD is consolidating in the $1.3370/90 range on Friday. The single currency is slightly down from the yesterday’s peak at $1.3400 (highest since mid-June, 200-week MA). Bullish momentum towards the euro persists, but there is a strong resistance ahead. Commerzbank: EUR/USD remains bid above the $1.3312 and only a loss of last week’s low at $1.3188 will alleviate immediate upside pressure. Intraday charts are suggesting the $1.3417 high will be tested, but that it is likely to cap growth. Chart. Daily EUR/USD

Trade signals from Danske Bank EUR/USD: Buy at $1.3336 with a target of $1.3456 and a stop at $1.3290 USD/JPY: Short at 98.60 with a target of 95.42 and a stop at 97.55 GBP/USD: Buy at $1.5435 with a target of $1.5680 and a stop at $1.5375 USD/CHF: Sell at 0.9245 with a target of 0.9056 and a stop at 0.9297 AUD/USD: Revised buy at $0.9020 with a target of $0.9258 and a stop at $0.8964 USD/CAD: Sell at 1.0345 with a target of 1.0170 and a stop at 1.0405