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B]EUR/USD jumped above $1.3600[/b] EUR/USD jumped above $1.3600 triggering on its way stop orders and blowing the sellers of the market. There is no specific news. Euro’s advance may be caused by the buying from the European traders who have joined the market and are now playing on the news that all is well in the US. On the upside there are $1.3620 and$1.3650 on the way. Support is at $1.3580/70. Chart. H1 EUR/USD http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/614

Oct. 17: Asian session US Congress voted in favor of a deal to end a US government shutdown and raise the debt limit, damping demand for haven assets. The deal would fund the government through Jan. 15, 2014, and suspend the debt limit until Feb. 7, setting up another round of confrontations then. The Senate voted 81-18 for this plan to halt the 16-day shutdown and raise the borrowing limit and the House of Representatives voted 285-144. The bill’s now waiting to be signed by President Obama. EUR/USD rose to $1.3550. Watch for the euro zone’s current account results at 08:00 GMT along job market data in the US at 12:30 GMT and Philadelphia’s Fed manufacturing index at 14:00 GMT. GBP/USD went up to $1.5986. Britain will release retail sales at 08:30 GMT (forecast: +0.5%; previous: -0.9%). USD/JPY printed a high at 99.00 (highest since June) earlier in the Asian session. Later on the pair has retraced lower, testing 98.40. USD/CHF slid to 0.9120. USD growth versus the higher-yielding currencies remains subdued: the markets are gauging the impact of the recent impasse on economic growth and prospects the Fed will taper stimulus. AUD/USD has retraced to $0.9530 after having touched a fresh 4-month high at $0.9570. Australia NAB quarterly business confidence improved to 3 (vs. prior -1). NZD/USD is swinging in the $0.8410/45 range. USD/CAD has slowed the yesterday’s decline, consolidating around 1.0320. http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/614

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USD/JPY: Ichimoku analysis Daily. USD/JPY has recovered to the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud during the past few days and continues to consolidate below the important mark of 98.60. Note that here is a strong resistance level and Kijun (KS). It’s obvious that the future of the currency pair will be determined precisely at this level. Break upwards would mean the victory for of bulls and growth at least to 99.60. If the resistance 98.60 persists, we can expect a rapid depreciation of the pair towards October lows. Chart. Daily USD/JPY H4. At H4 the pair is getting to the positive territory, but is still unable to settle above the upper boundary of the cloud. Note that the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B switched the cloud to the bullish state. The buying interest may increase in the near future. If the market doesn’t hold above the Senkou Span B, we’ll be waiting for the development of the bearish scenario. Chart. H4 USD/JPY Tatyana Norkina for FX BAZOOKA http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/727

GBP/USD: Ichimoku analysis Daily. The past week hasn’t introduced significant changes to GBP/USD situation. Pound was trading above the lower border of the Tenkan-Kijun channel that proves the presence of a short-term flat. However, you should pay attention to the character of the Tenkan-sen’s (TS) movement. In the past two days the line abruptly went down intending to cross with the rising Kijun -Sen (KS). It’s obvious that the formation of a dead cross at the current levels would be a further confirmation of corrective decline. In this case, very soon the prices may test the levels of the cloud top. To do that GBP will have to go back to Tenkan-sen. Chart. Daily GBP/USD H4. On H4 the market’s decline slowed down at the lower border of the Ichimoku cloud. Senkou Span B served as a support during the past week. However, after the bulls by failing to break an important resistance level at $1.6015, bearish sentiment started growing again. Thus, the Ichimoku cloud expanded to the downside confirming a high probability of the downtrend resumption. Now all lines of the Indicator are directed sideways. If the prices fix above Tenkan and Kijun © which have the same value, we may see a short-term burst of activity on the part of buyers, and for another attempt to test $1.6015. If the price fall below Tenkan and Kijun, the downtrend will resume. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Tatyana Norkina for FX BAZOOKA http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/723

EUR/USD: Ichimoku analysis Daily. Last week EUR/USD was consolidating within the Tenkan-Kijun channel on the daily chart. Resistance possible was provided by the upper limit of the channel – Tenkan-sen (TS). Note that on the candlestick chart there was a reversal pattern formed, which later received confirmation. As a result, the pair slipped back to the recent local minimum at $1.3500. It’s clear that the market now requires correction so that the main trend could continue later on. In the short term we expect a decline to Kijun-sen (KS), which started forming support at $1.3440. Chart. Daily EUR/USD H4. The sideways trend, we talked about a week earlier, made EUR/USD to go down deep into the Ichimoku cloud on H4. During the week the pair tested several times the upper levels of the cloud, but it’s obvious that the buyers at the moment are in a weakened condition. The location of Chinkou Spen also confirms the weakness of bulls. It should be noted that in the recent days the pair has already fixed under the Tenkan and Kijun lines which now have the same value © and horizontal. This is the further evidence of the fact that in the short term currency pair may fall to the bottom of the cloud. Senkou Span B formed a support at $1.3440. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Tatyana Norkina for FX BAZOOKA http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/722

FBS: watching EUR/USD EUR/USD returned to the positive territory after dipping to $1.3505 during the Asian trading hours and touched $1.3543 retracing 50% of yesterday’s decline. Euro zone’s inflation data came in line with forecasts. US lawmakers keep negotiation on the debt limit as the deadline to raise it comes tomorrow. Everyone’s waiting for the news from America. USD will strengthen if the deal is agreed. There’s a series of lower lows and highs at H4 chart. Still this move will be viewed as correction to the longer-term upward trend as long as euro stays above $1.3450 (38.2% Fibo). Note that the decline below $1.3470/60 may activate a potential head and shoulders formation with potential target in the $1.33 area. Support is at $1.3515, $1.3479, $1.3471, $1.3460. Resistance is at $1.3550, $1.3570, $1.3600/05 and $1.3645. Chart. H4 EUR/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/728

GBP jumped on labor data GBP/USD has reached a weekly high of $1.6060 following the release of the UK employment data, but the pound's rally was capped by sell orders clustered in the $1.6050/80 area. Cable has returned back into the $1.6020 area as of writing. Data showed UK claimant count change dropped by 41.7K vs. 25K expected. What is more, the previous reading was revised from -32.6K to -41.6K. Unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.7%. “Achieving the 7% target is still going to be a challenge for UK,” strategists at Morgan Stanley say. “Hence, we would expect any pound gains to remain limited.” Chart. H4 GBP/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/611

All eyes on America US Senate aides said an agreement to lift the government’s $16.7 trillion borrowing limit was near but details still needed to be worked out. The market players will be very alert today hoping that an announcement will be made later on Wednesday. Westpac: “The way the market is trading is, small selloffs on bad news and big rallies on positive news. I’d want to know whether Boehner will present any bill agreed on in the Senate for a vote in the House. That’s what we really need for a real relief rally.” The US government entered the 16th day of its shutdown as congressional leaders continue to spar over how to proceed with the nation’s budget and borrowing limit. If the debt ceiling is not raised by Thursday, the government will by law no longer be able to add to the national debt and the Treasury could miss an upcoming interest payment on its debt and go into default. There are 2 big interest payments – on Oct. 31 and Nov. 15 – 2 potential default dates unless the Congress reaches an agreement. Fitch Ratings warned yesterday that it could cut the US AAA credit rating. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/610

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3450, $1.3550, $1.3600; GBP/USD: $1.5900, $1.6000, $1.6025, $1.6095, $1.6100; USD/JPY: 97.50, 98.00, 98.60, 98.75, 98.80, 99.00; AUD/USD: $0.9425, $0.9430, $0.9550, $0.9560. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/609

Oct. 16: Asian session EUR/USD is trading on the downside around $1.3515. Yesterday euro tested $1.3947, but then bounced due to no resolution to US budget and fiscal issues and managed to close above $1.3500. Senate Democrats and Republicans must now reach a final agreement and persuade House Speaker John Boehner to allow a vote that would pass largely with Democratic support. The single currency dropped today before a report forecast to confirm the slowest price gains in more than 3 years (09:00 GMT). The ECB’s President Mario Draghi will speak today at 18:00 GMT. GBP/USD declined by about 25 points below $1.6000. Britain will release unemployment data at 08:30 GMT. USD/JPY remains volatile. On Wednesday the pair has recovered above 98.50 after the yesterday’s dip to 98.00 as the US Senate resumed talks to avoid a default. Nikkei 225 is trading on the positive zone. USD/CHF rose to 0.9150, but is still below yesterday’s high at 0.9177. Watch Swiss ZEW economic expectations at 09:00 GMT. AUD/USD is calmly trading around $0.9520. Aussie remains supported at $0.9500 and capped by the yesterday’s high of $0.9560. NZD/USD has strengthened to $0.8405. New Zealand CPI for Q3 came a bit above the forecast (+0.9% q/q vs. expected +0.8%). There are no other releases scheduled for today on the Asian markets, so all eyes are on the US today. USD/CAD is swinging in the 1.0345/65 area. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/608

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USD/JPY rose to 98.70 USD/JPY extends the rebound from the 200-day MA at 96.60 on the growing optimism about the US budget deadlock. On Tuesday the pair has strengthened into the 98.70 area after a dip in the Asian trade. The greenback has finally broken above the 98.60 resistance (daily Ichimoku, Friday and Monday highs, 50% Fibo). The pair could surge rapidly in case of any positive news from the US. However, technically, the picture is not so bright: we see a MACD convergence on the H4 chart. Watch the 200-period MA on the H4 (currently at 98.66) – this line has acted as a resistance for a couple of times. Resistance: 98.80, 99.00 (61.8% Fibo) Support: 98.35, 98.10/00. 97.60/50 Chart. H4 USD/JPY http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/604

EUR/USD dropped to $1.3500 EUR/USD slid to $1.3500. German ZEW survey came mixed (economic sentiment index improved, while current situation index deteriorated). This news overshadowed good results of Spanish debt action. US dollar’s strengthening on hopes about the debt and budget solution. Chinese Deputy Finance Minister Zhu Guangyan said that the US must undertake its responsibility to uphold stability of international financial markets. Resistance is at $1.3550, $1.3600/05 and $1.3630. Support is at $1.3500, $1.3487 and $1.3477. Chart. H1 EUR/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/605

GBP/USD below $1.6000 GBP/USD is trading below the $1.6000 mark on Tuesday, holding below the yesterday’s peak at $1.6020. The pair is trading in the area of the July-September support trend line and holds below the H4 Ichimoku cloud. US budget problems remain in focus this week. The market is also waiting for the release of the UK inflation figures for September at 8:30 GMT (forecast: +2.6%, prior: +2.7%). Tomorrow morning Britain is scheduled to release a bunch of important labor market data. Support: $1.5950, $1.5915, $1.5900 Resistance: $1.6000, $1.6020, 1.6070/80 Chart. H4 GBP/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/603

Goldman Sachs: outlook for GBP According to strategists at Goldman Sachs, GBP/USD will hit $1.6800, $1.6900 and $1.6500 in 3, 6 and 12 months. "The UK has experienced a substantial improvement in activity indicators in recent months. Part of this may be related to a recovering Euro area economy and part linked to the acceleration in credit growth. The composite PMI stands at close to the highest level since the mid-1990s. This economic strength will likely support capital inflows, which would offset some of the external vulnerability linked to the relatively large current account deficit," they explain. However, Goldman believes that pound's ability to strengthen versus the euro is limited. Analists expect EUR/GBP to trade at $0.8200, $0.8300 and $0.8500 in 3, 6 and 12 months. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/719

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3475, $1.3550, $1.3575, $1.3600, $1.3625; GBP/USD: $1.5900, $1.6100; USD/JPY: 97.15, 98.00, 98.65, 98.75, 99.00; USD/CHF: 0.9110, 0.9165; AUD/USD: $0.9500; USD/CAD: 1.0350, 1.0390, 1.0400, 1.0430; EUR/JPY: 133.25; EUR/GBP: 0.8450, 0.8500. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/601

Oct. 15: Asian session USD weakened today against higher-yielding currencies as equity markets signaled optimism about US Senate discussions on raising the nation’s debt limit to avert a default, curbing demand for refuge assets such as JPY. USD/JPY reached the highest level since Oct. 1 at 98.70. USD/CHF is trading in the 0.9100 area. Senate Democratic and Republican leaders said yesterday they made significant progress toward an accord. The emerging agreement would suspend the debt limit through Feb. 7, 2014, fund the government through Jan. 15 and require a House-Senate budget conference by Dec. 13, reports Bloomberg referring to an anonym source in Senate. A deal could be announced today. EUR/USD recovered to $1.3570 after a dip to $1.3550 earlier in the session. Yesterday the pair has retested the $1.3600 mark, but failed to fix on these highs. Euro zone will release ZEW economic indices at 9:00 GMT. ECOFIN meeting starts in Brussels today. GBP/USD was rejected from the levels just below $1.6000. Britain will release CPI at 08:30 GMT. AUD/USD rose to $0.9540 (highest since June) following the tonight’s release of the RBA October minutes. There wasn’t much new in the release, but policy outlook has become more neutral. Further rate cuts still remain an option for the bank, but RBA underlined that policy would directly depend on dataflow. NZD/USD has touched $0.8405. Kiwi saw a small dip tonight as New Zealand Treasury said in their 2013 annual report that the currency exchange rate remained elevated. USD/CAD is falling for the third day and returned to the previous resistance (and now support) around 1.0330. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/600

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AUD/USD: Elliot wave analysis Weekly. The pair keeps forming downward impulse wave III. Chart. Weekly AUD/USD Daily. The pair may have finished the construction of a corrective wave [4]. In the near future we expect a decline in the wave [5]. Chart. Daily AUD/USD H4. The pair keeps forming the wave (2). The construction of this wave was delayed, so in the near term we expect a start of a decline in wave (3). It’s possible that we’ll see a top-down “shot” of a price. After such protracted corrections there are often strong price movements. Chart. H4 AUD/USD Roman Petuchov for FX BAZOOKA http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/715

USD/JPY: Elliot waves analysis Daily. The pair keeps forming the wave . Then this wave is complete, we’ll see a decline in the wave [c] of 2. Chart. Daily USD/JPY H4. At the moment the pair’s forming the wave (E) in line with the forecast. Most likely, the next week the construction of this wave will continue, as shown at the chart. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Daily. The chart shows an alternative that must be considered in trading. There’s a possibility that the construction of wave 1 is not yet complete. Now we are seeing the formation of the wave (IV) in the form of a horizontal triangle, and this wave has already been completed. If this assumption is true, in the near future we’ll see a significant increase in wave (V). However, no matter which option is chosen by the price movement, we’ll be waiting for an upward movement this week. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Roman Petuchov for FX BAZOOKA http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/714

GBP/USD: Elliot wave analysis Weekly. GBP/USD may have completed the construction of the wave [iI]. In the near future a new trend may start. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily. The construction of the wave [1] is close to an end. When it’s over, the pair will start forming upward corrective wave [2]. Chart. Daily GBP/USD H4. The layout of the downward impulse wave [1] is shown at the picture. In the near future we’ll see the completion of the wave 5 of (5) of [1]. Then pound will begin a corrective movement upwards. The approximate trajectory of the wave is represented at the chart. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Roman Petuchov for FX BAZOOKA http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/713

EUR/USD: Elliot waves analysis Weekly. The pair has presumably completed the construction of a correctional wave (b) of [2]. In line with this, in the near future we expect a decline in wave © of [2]. Chart. Weekly EUR/USD Daily. The wave (b) has taken shape of a widening horizontal triangle. Let’s examine the structure of the last section in detail. Chart. Daily EUR/USD H4. The final upward wave © has taken shape of the Ending Diagonal Triangle. Now we are seeing the price decline in the wave [1], this wave is taking form of a wedge. Quite often, at the beginning of a new trend a wedge is formed. When the wave [1] is complete, we’ll see a correction [2] . When the waves [1] and [2] are fully formed, the decline will continue. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Roman Petuchov for FX BAZOOKA http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/711

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3470, $1.3580, $1.3590; USD/JPY: 97.85, 98.00, 98.15, 98.13, 98.30, 98.50, 98.65, 98.90, 99.00; USD/CHF: 0.9125, 0.9150 AUD/USD: $0.9450, $0.9500, $0.9550 USD/CAD: 1.0400; EUR/JPY: 133.25; EUR/GBP: 0.8450, 0.8460; GBP/JPY: 157.60. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/597

Oct. 14: Asian session EUR/USD opened with a small gap and rose to $1.3565, though it’s still below Friday’s high at $1.3580. GBP/USD edged up to $1.5988. USD/JPY opened with a gap down at 98.22 after closing at 98.54 on Friday. USD/CHF opened with a gap down at 0.9090 after closing above 0.9100 on Friday. US dollar fell as talks between President Barack Obama and House Republicans hit an impasse and US senators from both parties struggled to draft an accord that averts a US default. Euro gained before a report due today at 09:00 GMT is expected to show industrial production in the region rebounded in August. The Eurogroup finance ministers will meet today in Luxembourg. AUD/USD opened with more than 40-pip gap down, but then rose back to the Friday’s close in the $0.9470 area. Data over the weekend showed China trade surplus came significantly below expectations because of the drop in exports. China September CPI came at 3.1% y/y (forecast: 2.8%). Australia August home loans dropped by 3.9% m/m vs. the expected 2.5% contraction. NZD/USD rose to the upper border of recent weeks’ trading range at $0.8350, closing the morning bearish gap. New Zealand September HPI came at 2.6% m/m. USD/CAD opened with a gap up at 1.0360, but then slid by 10 pips lower. Canadian and the US banks are closed in observance of Thanksgiving Day. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/595