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Have a profitable trade with FBS! Work with FBS , be friends with FBS and be successful! Fastest Growing Forex Broker Asia 2012 The Best Broker Asia 2013

Have a profitable trade with FBS! Work with FBS , be friends with FBS and be successful! Fastest Growing Forex Broker Asia 2012 The Best Broker Asia 2013

ECB has no reasons to cut rates Analysts think that the ECB is preparing something. In their view, the next policy move will be not a change in the benchmark rate, but rather a non-standard step. According to Bloomberg News surveys, the majority of experts think that President Mario Draghi will unveil new liquidity measures such as longer-term refinancing operations (LTRO), while the interest rates will remain at 0.5% through the first half of 2015. ING: “As long as soft indicators improve and hard data follows suit, there is no reason for the ECB to cut rates. A new LTRO could kill several birds with one stone: it could solve possible liquidity problems, could lower money-market rates and, above all, would help lock in market expectations.” Comments from the ECB show that the central bank’s assessing the option, but is in no hurry to act. The next ECB meeting will take place on Nov. 7. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/709

CB, SEB: bearish on EUR/USD EUR/USD is trading sideways today after it declined yesterday quitting the $1.3600/3550 range. On the downside the single currency hit $1.3487 today, on the upside – $1.3545. Commerzbank expects the pair to slide to $1.3460/53 (August high, 23.6% retracement of the advance from July) and then probably $1.3300 (3-month channel support). SEB also underlines that a break below $1.3462 will confirm a bearish setup. Chart. H4 EUR/USD

USD/JPY approached resistance USD/JPY rose to 97.80 approaching the downtrend line from September highs. The pair was supported by the hopes that US debt limit will be raised in time, as well as solid Japanese core machinery orders data (+5.4%). Nikkei rose by more than 1%. The pair has entered the Ichimoku Cloud on H4. Still the near-term conditions look overbought and there’s much of the resistance ahead. Resistance is at 97.87/93 (short-term resistance line), 98.05, 98.25 and 98.65. Support is at 97.60, 97.20 and 96.60. Commerzbank points out that USD/JPY has to overcome 97.90/98.10 for the move up to “look more like a bullish trend than a corrective bouncing.” Rochford Capital: “As soon as you start to see signs of an agreement being reached on the debt ceiling, USD/JPY will fly back up to 99.00 pretty quickly.” Chart. H4 USD/JPY http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/706

US jobless claims miss forecast US jobless claims came much worse than expected (374K vs. 307K expected) rising to the highest level since the beginning of April. USD/JPY rose to 98.00. EUR/USD kept the range. The single currency’s trading just 15 points above $1.3500. So did GBP/USD which descended from today’s high at $1.5970 to the middle of the range around $1.5940. The lack of action in EUR and GBP may be explained by the fact that the market players await news about US budget and deficit problems. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/593

10 October 2013, BoE: policy unchanged The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee maintained the official Bank Rate at 0.5%. The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at 375 billion pounds. The minutes of the meeting will be published on Wednesday, October 23. GBP/USD is a bit higher at $1.5950. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/592

Key currency options Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3465, $1.3495, $1.3510, $1.3525, $1.3550, $1.3560, $1.3600, $1.3620; GBP/USD: $1.5950, $1.6000, $1.6070; USD/JPY: 96.00, 96.15, 96.25, 97.00, 97.10, 97.25, 98.10, 99.40; USD/CHF: 0.9000; AUD/USD: $0.9385 $0.9400 $0.9450 $0.9500; USD/CAD: 1.0315 1.0330; EUR/JPY: 132.80; EUR/GBP: 0.8410 0.8520; http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/591 AUD/JPY: 90.00.

Oct. 10: Asian session US dollar rose as, according to Bloomberg, US Congressional leaders were said to be open to a short-term increase in the nation’s debt limit. The Fed’s last meeting minutes released yesterday showed that most official think the QE tapering could start as soon as the next 2 monetary meetings and halting all QE purchases by the middle of 2014. Don’t miss US unemployment claims at 12:30 GMT. EUR/USD is trading just below $1.3500, a bit above yesterday’s low at $1.3485. Demand for the euro was supported ahead of data today forecast to show industrial output gained in France and Italy. The ECB’s President Mario Draghi will speak again at 16:20 GMT. Yesterday he said that many US commentators “mistook the euro for fixed exchange-rate regime, when in fact it is an irreversible single currency.” GBP/USD keeps testing support at $1.5920. Yesterday pound lost more than 100 pips. The Bank of England is expected to keep policy unchanged today (11:00 GMT). USD/JPY rose to 97.76. US dollar’s rising for the third day after it got support from the 200-day MA. Yen weakened before the Bank of Japan’s Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks today (16:00 GMT). USD/CHF rose to 0.9130, to the highest level since the end of September. AUD/USD declined to $0.9400 after data showed a smaller-than-forecast gain in employment (9.1K vs. 15.2K). The nation’s unemployment rate dropped from 5.8% to 5.6%. NZD/USD slid to $0.8250. USD/CAD reached 1.0420. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/589

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EUR/USD: Ichimoku analysis Daily. During the past week EUR/USD renewed local extremes formed in September: the pair traded above $1.3640 last Thursday almost reaching the target levels of short-term growth – $1.3650. However, by the end of the trading day on Friday, the bears appeared at the market and pulled the currency pair to Tenkan-sen. This line ($1.3550) keeps euro from serious corrective decline inside the Tenkan-Kijun channel. If this support is breached, EUR/USD will soon fall to $1.3470. The overall situation is still quite positive (Ichimoku cloud is in the bullish state), but very inconvenient for future purchases as Chinkou Span shows an overbought market. Chart. Daily EUR/USD H4. On H4 the pair is once again trading below the Tenkan and Kijun lines. Note that these lines formed the dead cross ©, which indicates a change in the short-term sentiment. Therefore, in the near future we can expect more bearish pressure on the upper limit of the Ichimoku cloud. This support will likely be breached as Chinkou Span is located under the price chart. All in all we observe a steady sideways move at this timeframe – all lines of the indicator are horizontal. Chart. H4 EUR/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/700

GBP/USD: Ichimoku analysis Daily. Last week GBP/USD failed to hold above $1.6200. The overbought market went against the bulls who hoped to make the price settle above this handle. During the week the pair was declining and entered Tenkan-Kijun channel on Friday. The fact that the prices fixed below Tenkan (TS) – is the sign of the possible continuation of the short-term downtrend. The immediate support is at $1.6000. If this level is breached, the price may slide to Kijun line (KS). Note though that Tenkan and Kijun are still set to rise. In addition, Senkou Span A (SSA) strengthens the bullish Cloud. Chart. Daily GBP/USD H4. The picture isn’t that bright on H4. At the end of last week, the pair dropped deep into the Ichimoku cloud. The Tenkan and Kijun formed the Dead Cross ©, which is still relevant as the bulls so far haven’t broken up the resistance of the Kijun line (KS). Therefore, in the next few days there’s a high probability of further corrective decline that can stop only at the lower bottom of the Cloud. Chart. H4 GBP/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/701

BofA: stay bullish on EUR Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch recommend staying bullish on EUR/USD and buying on the pullbacks low as long as the pair trades above $1.3452/1.3412. The specialists expect euro to push towards $1.3711 (Feb. high) and higher. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/704

Deutsche Bank on US default possibility The market participants regard US default as an unlikely event. Still the consequences of such outcome would be so bad, that investors start “think the unthinkable.” The closer America approaches to default and the longer the uncertainty persists, the more intense will be the flight to safe havens. According to DB, JPY, CHF, EUR and GBP will be preferred refuges (in this order). The bank doesn’t rule out USD/JPY falling to 90.00 and EUR/USD rising to $1.40. “The longer it takes to come to a political agreement, the bigger the medium-term bearish USD consequences,” echoes Morgan Stanley. If the technical default actually happens, it will be very damaging for USD’s long-term reserve status. Presumably the Fed and potentially other Central banks would be drawn into the fray in pursuing additional QE. “Ironically the less disruptive a technical default is, the more it would raise the probability of it happening again, adding to the prospect of more disruptive events in the future,” warns DB. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/705

GBP/USD is hit by UK data GBP/USD slid below $1.6000 and is testing support at $1.5955 (Sept. 24 low). Pound was hit by weak UK data: industrial & manufacturing production declined, while trade deficit didn’t contract as much as expected. Support lies at $1.5920 (23.6% Fibo of the advance from July and also a support line). Resistance is $1.6050, $1.6130 and $1.6170. Chart. H4 GBP/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/588

Oct. 9: Asian session EUR/USD got twice rejected in the $1.3600 area – yesterday and today and is currently trading in the $1.3565 area. The Fed releases minutes of last month’s meeting when it unexpectedly refrained from trimming bond purchases at 18:00 GMT. US government remains partially shut down. Euro halted a decline before a report forecast to show German industrial production rebounded in August (10:00 GMT) and the ECB president speaks today at 22:00 GMT. GBP/USD was also constrained by resistance at $1.6125/20 and is trading in the $1.6070 area. The UK will release manufacturing production figures at 08:30 GMT, as well as trade balance and the Bank of England’s credit conditions survey. USD/JPY rose from the 200-day MA at 96.76 to 97.40. Yen declined after a White House official said President Barack Obama will nominate Janet Yellen today to head the Fed, boosting demand for higher-yielding assets. USD/CHF remains in 0.9015/65 area. AUD/USD rose to $0.9484 yesterday, but the closed at $0.9420. Today Aussie is trading a bit on the upside before a report tomorrow that is forecast to show that Australian jobs gained in September. NZD/USD is fluctuating around $0.8285. USD/CAD rose approaching 1.0380. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/585

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HSBC: long-term bearish AUD/USD HSBC expects AUD/USD to drop to $0.9000 by the end of this year and to $0.8600 by the end of 2014 as the Fed’s tapering of monetary stimulus will revive US dollar. Note that according to Bloomberg, HSBC was the most accurate at predicting AUD over the past year. Emirates NBD and CIBC, the second and third-best forecasters, see a deeper decline to $0.8500 during 2014. The Fed’s now expected to start slowing its bond-buying in December, while the RBA rate is projected to rate cut in the first half of next year. The impact of a boom in Australia’s resources sector is now fading. The RBA expects the weakest growth since 2009 this year. Australian trade deficit in August was almost in 2 times bigger than expected. Data release last month showed that payrolls unexpectedly dropped and the unemployment rate climbed to a 8-year high. The OECD says that even after this year’s decline, AUD is still 27% overvalued versus USD. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/697

USD/JPY: positions of the banks Goldman Sachs: short from 97.30 for a tactical target of 94.00, with a stop on a close above 98.00. Commerzbank: short from 98.27 with a revised stop at 98.30, and a target at 95.85. Credit Suisse: long from 96.85 with a stop at 95.65 and a target at 99.10. Goldman Sachs: short from 97.30 for a tactical target of 94.00, with a stop on a close above 98.00. Commerzbank: short from 98.27 with a revised stop at 98.30, and a target at 95.85. Credit Suisse: long from 96.85 with a stop at 95.65 and a target at 99.10. http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/698

GBP/USD spiked down GBP/USD spiked down to $1.6020 on the misleading headlines that the Bank of England announced long-term refinancing operations (LRTO); in reality this was a misreporting of routine repo operation. For now the pair returned to the levels just below $1.6100. Support is at $1.6019/15, $1.6000, $1.5978, $1.5955. Resistance is at $1.6100, $1.6130, $1.6150. Chart. H1 GBP/USD http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/584

Oct. 8: Asian session Concerns about the US government shutdown and the debt ceiling negotiations are mounting. EUR/USD didn’t reach $1.3600 yesterday and slid to $1.3560 today. Watch for German factory orders at 10:00 GMT (forecast: 1.2%; previous; -2.7%). In US the speeches of the Fed’s Pianalto and Plosser will be in the limelight. GBP/USD is trading on the downside at $1.6070. Pound’s consolidating after the yesterday’s mini-rally gains of around 85 pips on the news that optimism in the UK’s financial industry improved in Q3. USD/JPY tested levels below 200-day MA at 96.60 as US President Barack Obama reiterated he won’t negotiate with Republicans over the borrowing limit, but then recovered above 97.00 as investors still believe that the United States will manage find a solution in the end. Yen fell as Asian stocks snapped a 2-day decline, damping demand for safer assets. Japanese current account surplus turned out to be lower than expected. USD/CHF rose a bit to 0.9050. Switzerland will release inflation and retail sales data today at 07:15 GMT, while the SNB President Jordan will speak at 16:00 GMT. AUD/USD has once again tested $0.9450, but then returned 20 pips lower. Aussie’s supported by the solid Australian data, but capped by risk-off sentiment created by American problems. NZD/USD keeps consolidating around $0.8400. USD/CAD is pushing higher towards resistance in the 1.0340 area. Canada will release trade balance at 12:30 GMT. Building permits disappointed yesterday. http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/582

Presiden Yudhoyono menyambut baik kedatangan Presiden Rusia, Vladimir Putin guna menghadiri pertemuan puncak KTT APEC di Bali. Di tengah kesibukan perhelatan Konferensi Tingkat Tinggi (KTT) APEC pada hari ini, Senin (7/10/2013), Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) menyempatkan diri bermain gitar. Hal itu dilakukan SBY untuk memberikan kejutan kepada Presiden Rusia Vladimir Putin yang pada hari ini tepat merayakan ulang tahunnya yang ke-61. Di ruang tunggu utama Hotel Sofitel, Nusa Dua, Bali, SBY mengambil gitar dan menyanyikan lagu Happy Birthday untuk Putin. Aksi Presiden tersebut sontak membuat kaget para pemimpin APEC lainnya yang hendak santap siang. Bersama dengan SBY, akhirnya para pemimpin APEC bersama-sama menyanyikan lagu selamat ulang tahun tersebut dan memberikan ucapan selamat kepada Putin. Tidak lama kemudian, Presiden Putin disodorkan lilin dan diminta untuk segera meniupnya. Dalam kesempatan ini, SBY dan kepala negara lainnya bergantian menyalami Putin sambil mengucapkan selamat ulang tahun. Presiden SBY juga mengatakan bahwa hubungan Indonesia dan Rusia terus berkembang. "Dan pertemuan kita ini meningkatkan kerja sama yang lebih erat lagi," kata Presiden Yudhoyono. Sementara itu, Presiden Putin sependapat dengan Presiden Yudhoyono, bahwa prospek hubungan kedua belah pihak masih sangat luas. "Ada prospek yang cerah di berbagai bidang menurut kami termasuk juga di transportasi pembangunan dan industri, dan lainnya lainnya," kata Putin. Have a profitable trade with FBS! Work with FBS , be friends with FBS and be successful! Fastest Growing Forex Broker Asia 2012 The Best Broker Asia 2013

AUD/USD: Elliot wave analysis Monday, October 7, 2013 - 13:25 Weekly. The downward impulse wave III keeps unfolding. Chart. Weekly AUD/USD Daily. Presumably the wave [4] has been fully formed. If this is true, we will soon see a decrease in the impulse wave [5]. Chart. Daily AUD/USD H4. The waves (1) and (2) of the downward movement are complete. In the near future we expect a decline in the wave (3). However, in this situation, we shouldn’t forget about the alternative scenario. If the pair renews the maximum of wave [4], we’ll see a continuation of the upward movement in the wave [4]. You have to be very careful with the sales. Chart. H4 AUD/USD Roman Petuchov for FBS http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-10-07/23544-audusd-elliot-wave-analysis

USD/JPY: Elliot wave analysis Monday, October 7, 2013 - 13:13 Daily. The pair keeps forming corrective wave , which is taking the form of an extended horizontal correction. Chart. Daily USD/JPY H4. The wave (D) may be complete. If this assumption is true, we will soon see an increase in the wave (E). However, there is an alternative scenario: the decline in the wave (D) continues, as reflected in the following chart. Chart. H4 USD/JPY H1. The chart shows the detailed layout of a rather complicated area. You have to be very careful in such a market. Both versions of the upcoming move are shown at the picture. Chart. H1 USD/JPY Roman Petuchov for FBS http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-10-07/23543-usdjpy-elliot-wave-analysis

GBP/USD: Elliot wave analysis Monday, October 7, 2013 - 13:09 Weekly. The pair completed the formation of the corrective wave [iI]. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily. Wave [iI] took form of a flat, which is fully equipped with the waves of the junior level. Chart. Daily GBP/USD H4. Here’s a detailed layout of the last section. In the near future pound is expected to continue a downtrend. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Roman Petuchov for FBS http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-10-07/23542-gbpusd-elliot-wave-analysis