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USD/JPY breaks above 119.00 – FXStreet


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes that USD/JPY broke above 119.00 levels on the back of positive US data and rising equities.

Key Quotes

“After a consolidative phase during the last 2 sessions, the USD/JPY pair broke above the 119.00 on US positive data, finding support also in rising stocks.”

”The pair trades at a fresh 5-day high and the 1 hour chart shows it finally advanced above its 200 SMA, while momentum heads higher above 100 and RSI stands near 70.”

“In the 4 hours chart technical readings present a strong upward momentum which supports further advances on a break above 119.45 immediate short term resistance.”


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Dec 18, 2014
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USD/CNY neutral bias – BTMU


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, forms a neutral outlook for USD/CNY, anticipating thin liquidity in the week ahead due to PBOC signalling their preference for a weak Yuan.

Key Quotes

“Aside from the resolution of uncertainties surrounding Japan's elections and the FOMC, we think this week PBOC has also more clearly signaled its yearend USD/CNY preferences. which is likely to be to show a 2-3% yuan depreciation for this year. While we would hazard a guess the next day or two could see USD/CNY down, as has been typical whenever USD/CNY made a spirited move up the past two months, liquidity will really begin to thin next week so it seems more sensible to stay neutral.”

“Aside from the oiler bidding we've discussed for two weeks, what's probably even more impressive to us has been the seeming absence of USD supply on several days. If it's not outright capital outflows from China at this stage, we can't shake the feeling there will be a reversal coming sometime in the next couple of months. In this environment our core bias is to stay long gamma.”



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Dec 18, 2014
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Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey declines to 24.5 in December


FXStreet (London) - The Philadelphia Fed’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased 16 points, from a reading of 40.8 in November to 24.5 this month.

The regional reserve bank’s survey also showed that new orders and current shipments indexes also weakened significantly. The demand for manufactured goods, as measured by the current new orders index, decreased 20 points, from a reading of 35.7 last month to 15.7 this month. Shipments also fell, with its index falling 16 points to 16.1. Despite these declines from November, all the broad current activity indexes show a positive trend over the course of the current year.

According to the survey, input price pressures were reported to be slightly lower than last month’s: The prices paid index fell 3 points to 14.0 in December. Most firms reported that input prices were unchanged. With respect to prices received for manufactured goods, about 18 percent of the firms reported higher prices in December, and the index rose 1 point, to 12.5.




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Dec 18, 2014
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No signs for a beginning of any bearish moves for treasuries – RBS


FXStreet (Barcelona) - William O’Donnell of RBS, notes that the recent sell-off in treasuries doesn't point towards the beginning of a bearish phase, and further anticipates potentially weaker numbers ahead to keep the sell-off muted.

Key Quotes

“I see NO signs that the ~30hr sell-off in Treasuries is the beginning of a new bear move. Indeed, we have some potentially weak numbers up ahead that should mute any sell-off.”

“Looking at positioning, sentiment and momentum right now, it's still my guess that the start of the bear move is Q1 2015's business, perhaps aligning well with the notably bearish US rates seasonals that begin in late January and extend into mid-May.”

“But for now, I still lug around the notion that it's too late to buy Treasuries and too early to sell them for a bigger bear move. This sounds wishy-washy but how can anyone have any trend confidence when the Fed still searches for theirs?”

“5s (1.64%)– Next support comes in at 1.70% (where we were Monday last week) and then it gets stronger at 1.80% and just above. First resistance emerges at 1.47% and then major resistance lines up at ~1.27%. Daily momentum is bearish again.”

“10s (2.18%)–Next resistance comes in at the flash crash lows ~1.86%. Next support comes in ~2.40% with major support at 2.66% after that. Daily momentum is bearish.”

“30s (2.77%)– Bonds don't have any solid support until 3.105%, the November "lows." Next resistance is at ~2.50%, the all-time rate lows for bonds. Daily momentum is now bearish.”



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Dec 18, 2014
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EUR/USD approaches 2014 lows


FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD weakened during the last hours and dropped to 1.2264, reaching a fresh weekly low after another decline in US initial jobless claims. The pair approached 2014 low that lie at 1.2246.

Currently the euro is trading below 1.2280 as it remains under pressure amid expectations of more announcements by the European Central Bank in the next meeting. The currency has been unable to appreciate despite the fact that European markets are rising sharply, with the Dax up 2.20% and the Cac 40 climbing 2.77%

EUR/USD significant reversal

Last week, before rising above 1.2500, bottomed at 1.2245, reaching the lowest price since August 2012. On Tuesday EUR/USD peaked at 1.2569 and since then dropped more than 300 pips.



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Dec 18, 2014
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USD/JPY climbs above 119.00 after jobless claims


FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY edged a tad higher and managed to regain the 119 mark after data showed US jobless claims unexpectedly declined last week.

Claims for unemployment benefits dropped by 6,000 to 289,000 last week, versus 295,000 expected. Data gave the dollar a mild boost and sent USD/JPY back above 119.00. USD/JPY is currently trading at the 119.10 zone, up 0.40% on the day, having reached a daily high of 119.16 so far.

USD/JPY has been moving away from 1-month lows over the last sessions, resuming its upward bias after staging a year-end correction from a 7-year high 121.83.

USD/JPY technical levels

As for near-term levels, USD/JPY could find immediate resistances at 119.55 (Dec 11 high) and 120.00 (psychological level), while supports are seen at 118.25 (daily low) and 118.00 (psychological level/Dec 16 high).



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Dec 18, 2014
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USD/CHF retreats to 0.9755 and rises back above 0.9800


FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF jumped after the Swiss National Bank introduced negative interest rates on sight deposits to 0.9847, hitting levels last seen in July 2012, and then pulled back. From the highs retreated almost a hundred pips and found support at 0.9755.

Ahead of the release of US economic data the pair is trading back above 0.9800 and holds a bullish tone. The Swiss franc is the worst performer across the board on Thursday so far, falling particularly against commodity currencies.

USD/CHF challenging 0.9800

On a wider perspective the pair is also moving with a clear upside bias, making higher lows and higher highs, on a monthly basis, since July. Early on December traded momentarily on top of 0.9800 but failed to consolidate and retreated; now the pair could post the first daily close above in two years.



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Dec 18, 2014
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Dollar mixed as markets digest FOMC and SNB – BBH


FXStreet (Barcelona) - USD trades mixed today as markets digest the FOMC rhetoric and SNB’s shift to negative rates, with AUD and NOK outperforming, and EUR and CHF underperforming.

Key Quotes

“Markets are digesting the FOMC outcome. Our heuristic approach to the Federal Reserve is that the policy thrust emanates from the core leadership, which presently is Yellen, Fischer and Dudley. What follows from that simple observation is that the FOMC statement is the clearest expression of policy. The forecasts (dot plot) and the minutes from the meeting dilute and distort that policy signal.”

“This is especially relevant now. There is a rotation of regional presidents with voting authority next year. Moreover, all three of the dissenting presidents (three of the five) have reportedly signaled plans to leave the Fed.”

“We continue to see the most likely scenario for the first rate hike in June. We acknowledge some risk that the hike is delivered in September instead. Barring a significant surprise, the choice between the two meetings will be data-driven.”

“The Swiss National Bank announced a negative 25 bp interest rate on sight deposits and lowered the 3-month Libor range to -0.75% to 0.25%. Although SNB President Jordan revealed that it was inflows from Russia that compelled it to intervene in recent days, the fact of the matter is that the negative rate goes into effect the same day as the ECB's next meeting, January 22.”

“The announcement took the market by surprise. The SNB had given no clues at last week's quarterly review. The euro immediately shot up to CHF1.21 from just above the floor of CHF1.20. Nearly as quickly the gains were retraced, leaving the euro near CHF1.2040.”



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Dec 18, 2014
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EUR/USD moves off lows but lacks momentum


FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD briefly dropped below the 1.2300 level and hit a fresh 10-day low of 1.2277, from where it bounced to trim intraday losses.

EUR/USD managed to move off lows but the recovery lacked follow-through as the euro remains vulnerable amid prospects the ECB might take additional easing measures next month. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.2310, recording a 0.24% loss on the day.

EUR/USD levels to watch

As for technical levels, EUR/USD could find immediate resistances at 1.2350 (daily high), 1.2400 (psychological level) and 1.2415 (21-day SMA). On the other hand, supports could be found at 1.2277 (daily low), 1.2247 (2014 low Dec 8) and 1.2200 (psychological level).



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Dec 18, 2014
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FTSE gains almost 1%


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Londons Ftse index opened higher following on the increased probability of a delay in the interest rate hike in the US, although part of the gains have been erased.

The Ftse traded 0.89% higher at 6391 levels at the time of writing, compared to the previous sessions close of 6336.48 levels. The index had opened higher at 6418.50 levels, before declining to the current level of 6391. The index breadth is positive with an advance-decline ratio of 88:11. The Ftse Oil Equipment Services and Distributions index gained 4.75%, while the Mining index is up 1.42%. All other sectors are trading in green, except the Telecom index, which has weakened 1.14%.

Among stocks, Petrofac and Tullow Oil have gained 5.64% and 4.43% respectively. Meanwhile, Cocacola and United Utilities have weakened 2.33% and 1.5% respectively. The index hit a low of 6358 levels before recovering on a stronger-than-expected UK retail sales data for November.

FTSE Technical Levels

The index has an immediate resistance at 6446, above which gains could be extended to 6544 levels. Meanwhile, support is seen at 6361 and 6294 levels.



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Dec 18, 2014
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FTSE gains almost 1%


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Londons Ftse index opened higher following on the increased probability of a delay in the interest rate hike in the US, although part of the gains have been erased.

The Ftse traded 0.89% higher at 6391 levels at the time of writing, compared to the previous sessions close of 6336.48 levels. The index had opened higher at 6418.50 levels, before declining to the current level of 6391. The index breadth is positive with an advance-decline ratio of 88:11. The Ftse Oil Equipment Services and Distributions index gained 4.75%, while the Mining index is up 1.42%. All other sectors are trading in green, except the Telecom index, which has weakened 1.14%.

Among stocks, Petrofac and Tullow Oil have gained 5.64% and 4.43% respectively. Meanwhile, Cocacola and United Utilities have weakened 2.33% and 1.5% respectively. The index hit a low of 6358 levels before recovering on a stronger-than-expected UK retail sales data for November.

FTSE Technical Levels

The index has an immediate resistance at 6446, above which gains could be extended to 6544 levels. Meanwhile, support is seen at 6361 and 6294 levels.



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Dec 18, 2014
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OctaFX.com-cTrader Weekly Demo Contest Round 5 results announced!

OctaFX cTrader Weekly demo contest Round 5 is finished!

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FOMC expected to change its language in its statement – FXStreet


FXStreet (Barcelona) - FXStreet Analyst, Craig Drake, notes that high expectations revolve around Fed’s Wednesday meeting for a shift in its language, with the phrase “considerable time” anticipated to be dropped out of Fed’s communication.

Key Quotes

“The big expectation for the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting is for a shift in language. The FOMC is expected to drop the phrase “for considerable time” in reference to maintaining near-zero rates in favour of an emphasis on patience.”

“As part of the Fed’s reliance on forward guidance (something ushered in by Janet Yellen when deputy chairman of the Fed), the Fed has repeated the statement that “it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 0.25 percent target rate for the federal funds rate for a considerable time” after the end of its asset purchase programme – with the “considerable time” emphasis something that has been in place since 2012.”

“90-day Eurodollar implied probabilities of a Fed funds rate hike is being priced around mid-2015 in line with conservative consensus expectations from the majority of the big bank forecasts, however, we may see this being pushed later into the third quarter of 2015, with the Fed seemingly in no hurry to abandon its current ultra-loose monetary conditions despite an official Fed forecast of 2.8 percent GDP growth in 2015.”

“The Fed is also expected to downplay declines in inflation in view of recent sharp declines in oil prices”

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Dec 16, 2014
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UK Inflation forecast for December 2014 – RBS


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Ross Walker of RBS forecasts the UK inflation readings for December 2014, anticipating CPI to fall to 0.6% from November’s 1.0%.

Key Quotes

“CPI inflation fell to a 12-year low of 1.0% in Nov from 1.3% in Oct, significantly below City forecasts (consensus & RBS: 1.2%).”

“CPI inflation is forecast to fall to 0.6% in December, with the core CPI inflation rate edging up slightly to 1.3%.”

“RPI inflation is forecast to fall to 1.6% in Dec from 2.0% in Nov.”

“Medium-term inflation forecasts lowered significantly: CPI <1% for almost all of 2015 and below target throughout 2016.”

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Dec 16, 2014
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United States Building Permits (MoM) came in at 1.035M below forecasts (1.06M) in November


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Dec 16, 2014
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EUR/USD reaches 4-week highs


FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD managed to break above 1.2500 and climbed to fresh 4-week highs in a volatile session where the dollar rallies against emerging market currencies but falls against majors.

Better-than-expected Eurozone data acted as trigger, sending EUR/USD to a high of 1.2569, last seen November 20 and the euro has managed to hold onto gains despite the cautious tone among financial markets. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.2545, recording a 0.92% gain Tuesday.

Investors also remain wary as tomorrow the Fed concludes its 2-day monetary policy meeting, with focus on the 'considerable time' description of the period the bank considers it’ll be appropriate to keep historical low rates.

EUR/USD levels to watch

Immediate resistances are now seen at 1.2575 (Nov 20 high) and 1.2600 (psychological level/Nov 19 high), while supports could be found at 1.2414 (Dec 15 low), 1.2400 (psychological level) and 1.2370 (Dec 11 low).



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Dec 16, 2014
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GBP/JPY trades near 1-month low levels


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The pound lost ground against the Japanese counterpart and fell close to one month low levels after Japanese yen regained strength versus US dollar.

Currently, the GBP/JPY pair trades at 183.05, down -0.65% on the day, after having hit day’s low of 181.66 levels couple of hours ago. The GBP/JPY pair remains pressured as the Japanese yen continues its rise against the US dollar, taking USD/JPY to 116.58 levels, down -1.06% on the day. Adding to the downside in GBP/JPY, the pound remained pressured on sharp deceleration seen in UK CPI inflation numbers.

GBP/JPY Technical Levels

To the upside, the next resistance is located at 183.60 (10-day SMA) and above which it could extend gains to 183.98 (20-day SMA) levels. To the downside, immediate support might be located at 182.46 (Nov 19 Low) and below that at 181.04 (Nov 17 Low) levels.



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Dec 16, 2014
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Gold stuck at USD 1200


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The price of the yellow metal appears stuck at USD 1200 after it declined from the high of USD 1204 hit few minutes earlier.

Gold now trades 0.65% lower at USD 119.80/Oz levels. The yellow metal recovered from the low of USD 119.80/Oz levels hit during the Asian session after the HSBC PMI data showed a contraction in the Chinese manufacturing activity. The metal also received support from the weakness in the Asian equity markets.

However, the gains have been halted around USD 1200 during the European session since the HSBC data showed a rebound in the German manufacturing activity along with a rise in the German economic Sentiment to May 2014 highs in December. The Major European stock markets have moved higher which has reduced the demand for Gold. The Dax currently trades 1.005 higher, while the Ftse is up 1.21%. Meanwhile, the US dollar index has extended losses during the European session to trade 0.52% lower at 88.26 levels.

Gold Technical Levels

The metal has an immediate resistance at the daily high of 1204, above which prices face another resistance at 1208 levels. Meanwhile, support is seen at 1198.40 (10-DMA) and 1190.00 levels.




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Dec 16, 2014
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AUD/USD hits 2-day highs


FXStreet (Córdoba) - The US dollar weakened in the currency market during the European session and pushed AUD/USD to the upside, amid better-than-expected data from the Eurozone.

The pair climbed to 0.8274, reaching the highest price since last Friday and currently trades at 0.8250/55, 45 pips above yesterday’s closing price.

AUD/USD rebounds from 0.8198

During the Asian session the aussie reached a fresh multi-year low versus the US dollar after the release of the Chinese HSBC PMI Manufacturing index that dropped in December, according to the preliminary reading to 49.5, from 50.0; reaching the lowest level in seven months. The pair bottomed at 0.8198 but rebounded and then gained bullish momentum after breaking above 0.8235.




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Dec 16, 2014
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DAX climbs higher on Upbeat German data


FXStreet (Mumbai) - Germany’s benchmark index, the DAX, traded higher today, reversing losses from the previous session after Germany’s manufacturing sector as well as overall economic conditions improved in December.

Currently, the DAX 30 trades at 9397.80 levels, up 0.71%, compared to Friday’s close of 9334.01. The DAX gained strength after upbeat Germany’s PMI readings and ZEW Economic Sentiment Surveys pointed towards a stabilizing German economy. Germany's ZEW survey, the key measure of investors' sentiment, hit 31.8 points this month, a jump from November's 11.5, against market estimates of 20 points increase. The German flash PMI showed an expansion to 51.2 points after November's 49.5.

The index is trading with a positive market breadth, an advance decline ratio of 19:11. Among the major gainers, shares in Continental AG, Deutsche Telekom AG and ThyssenKrupp AG are up 0.70% to 1.55%. While, Commerzbank AG and RWE AG lost 0.50% to 0.78%.

DAX Technical Levels

The index has an immediate resistance at 9461.53 (Nov 18 High), above which gains could be extended to 9520 (Oct 1 High) levels. Meanwhile, support is seen at 9323.52 (Nov 18 Low) and 9268.63 (Nov 6 Low) levels.




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Dec 16, 2014
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German Economic Sentiment rises to highest since May 2014


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Zew indicator of Economic sentiment for Germany rose to 34.9 in December, highest since May 2014. The indicator has moved well above its long-term average of 24.4 points.

The assessment of the current situation in Germany also improved to 10.0 points in November. Both the data for Germany easily surpassed the median estimates. Meanwhile, the Zew data also showed the sentiment indicator for the Eurozone increased to a reading of 31.8 points in December, while the indicator for the current situation in the Eurozone decreased in December to minus 62.8 points.

As per ZEW President, Professor Clemens Fuest, “Confidence in the German economy seems to be slowly returning among the financial market experts surveyed by ZEW. This increase is related to favorable economic conditions such as the weak euro and the low crude oil price. The recently published German export figures already show a positive trend. However, we should be aware that the current optimism is fuelled by factors that might change even over the short term.”




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Dec 16, 2014
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EUR/USD hits fresh highs above 1.2500


FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD finally broke above the 1.25 mark to hit its highest level in nearly 3 weeks, supported by better-than-expected European PMIs and pushed even higher following upbeat ZEW German survey and trade data.

After 3 days of infructuous attempts, EUR/USD gathered enough momentum to pierce the 1.2500 resistance area and stretched to a high of 1.2527, last seen Nov 26, extending its recovery from this year low of 1.2246. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.2520, recording a 0.64% gain on Tuesday.

EUR/USD levels to watch

As for technical levels, EUR/USD could find immediate resistances at 1.2530/35 (Nov 26 high/50-day SMA) and 1.2575 (Nov 20 high). On the flip side, supports are now seen at 1.2414 (Dec 15 low), 1.2400 (psychological level) and 1.2370 (Dec 11 low).




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Dec 16, 2014
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United States Capacity Utilization came in at 80.1%, above forecasts (79.3%) in November


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Dec 15, 2014
OctaFX.Com News Updates