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GBP/USD steadies ahead of UK Factory numbers


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The cables trades with moderate gains during the European morning, as traders eye UK manufacturing and industrial activity data to be released shortly.

Currently, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.5672 levels, 0.12% higher from the previous session’s close of 1.5653. The pair continues to trade cautiously as market awaits fresh industrial and manufacturing output data from the UK, which may show deceleration in the factory growth in October.

The UK Office for National Statistics is expected to report industrial output rose 0.2% in October following a 0.6% increase in September. Manufacturing output is estimated to have fallen to growth of 0.2% in October from 0.4% measured a month before.

GBP/USD Levels to consider

The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.5697 (Dec 5 High) levels, above which gains could be extended to 1.5719 (Dec 3 High) levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.5651 (10-day SMA), below which it could extend losses to 1.5618 (50-day SMA) levels.




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Dec 09, 2014
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NZD/USD moves into positive territory


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Kiwi has recovered losses to trade in green against the Greenback, tracking a decline in the US treasury yields and a rebound in the EUR and GBP.

The NZD/USD pair now trades 0.19% higher at 0.7677, after having recovered from the low of 0.7609 levels. Moreover, the US dollar is witnessing a correction against most of its G-10 peers as a bout of risk-aversion in the Asian markets pushed the US 10-y r treasury yields lower to 2.25%.

The Kiwi had also come under pressure earlier today after the electronic retail card spending in November declined 0.1% month-on-month, against the expected gain of 0.2%.

NZD/USD Technical Levels

The pair has an immediate resistance located at 0.7685, above which gains could be extended to 0.7716 (5-DMA). Meanwhile, support is seen at 0.7660 (Nov 7 low) and 0.7607.



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Dec 09, 2014
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Denmark Trade Balance increased to 7.1B in October from previous 5.7B


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Dec 09, 2014
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Should Greece get the final bailout trance? Tip Tv


FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Tip Tv Team and Tom Elliot, International Investment Strategist at deVere Group, discuss about the Eurogroups meeting involving Greeces bailout problem.

Key Quotes

Eurogroup's meeting today on whether Greece should get the final tranche of its bailout package? If they demand an extension, which is likely, this could put into doubt gvt's ability to stop anti-austerity Syriza wining a February election and if they do we are back to talk of Greece leaving the euro.



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Dec 08, 2014
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Chile Consumer Price Index (Inflation) (MoM): 0% (November) vs previous 1%


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Dec 06, 2014
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Chile Core Consumer Price Index (Inflation) (MoM) fell from previous 0.7% to 0.3% in November


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Dec 06, 2014
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US Session recap: and the title? "Nonfarm Payrolls"!


FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD has been underpinned by the release of the Nonfarm payrolls data in the US session. What was needed was an extraordinary figure for the market to react in any great way to the release and that is exactly what we got.

The Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 321K, which puts the twelve-month average now up to 278K. This is significant and the highest yet in an increasing trend over the past few years along the US's recovery. The next FOMC meeting is on December the 17th which is going to set the tone for the beginning of 2015, but until then, the markets will make their own minds up and this jobs report has shifted the greenback into a much higher gear. On the week, The Yen, AUD and NZD were the biggest losers to the dollar.

EUR/USD made a low of 1.2271, supported to some extent by EUR/JPY demand at the end of the week as it broke into new highs, but overall, the EUR was a fade on attempts against the trend of a stronger dollar, such as when factory orders were released, but was wearing losses of over a cent move on the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls data.

USD/JPY was relentless and marked out higher grounds into the 121 handle with a high of 121.69 from a low of 119.71, showing the market its moves again, and boy can it move when it gets going! Again, the US factory orders were the only dent in its bonnet on a strong performance and brings in the 2007 highs at 123.95 into the picture.

USD/CAD leaped up towards 1.1480 making a high of 1.1476 before supply drove the pair lower and into a drift from 1.1415 to 1.1445. WTI was sliding on lower US factory orders while Poloz sees lower oil prices a threat to growth, revising his forecasting by +0.8% and explaining that it will be a dent of 0.33% in growth for 2015.

GBP/USD was breaking lower, marking out territory below the November bottom, and brings us fresh lows to work from at 1.5569.

Key events

US October factory orders down vs expectations

US Non farm payrolls smashing expectations by 91k

US unemployment rate in line with expectations

Canadian November employment disappointing



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Dec 06, 2014
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WTI Crude at day’s low


FXStreet (Mumbai) - Crude oil prices in the US remain weak despite a strong monthly jobs report in the US as sentiment soured after Saudi Arabia offered biggest discount on record to its oil customers across Asia.

WTI Crude for January delivery traded 1.39% lower at USD 65.85/barrel at the time of writing. Moreover, Crude prices hardly reacted to a stellar jobs report in the US as markets priced-in a sort of double whammy from the Saudis. Moreover, markets which were recovering from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting (OPEC) group’s decision to hold production levels unchanged, were caught off-guard after the Saudis state run oil company decided to extend its discount for Arab Light sales to Asia next month to USD 2/barrel below a regional benchmark.

Meanwhile, the inventory data released in the US yesterday also hurt prices. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released yesterday showed oil production expanded to 9.08 million barrels a day through Nov. 28, the fastest rate in weekly records that started in January 1983.

WTI Crude Technical Levels

Crude has an immediate support located at 65.41, under which prices can fall to 64.31 levels. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at 66.71 and 67.77 levels.


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Dec 05, 2014
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AUD/USD plummets after US employment report to fresh 4-year low


FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD dropped from 0.8365 to 0.8319 in a few minutes on the back of an upbeat US jobs report that boosted greenback across the board.

According to the US Labor Department, the economy added 321.000 jobs in November, above the 230.000 expected by market consensus while the unemployment rate remained at 5.8% as expected.

During the last few minutes the pair moved slightly off session lows and was trading at 0.8330/35, headed toward the fourth daily decline in a row and the lowest close since June 2010.

Despite falling against the US dollar, the aussie managed to rise versus the yen after NFP. AUD/JPY was trading slightly above 101.00 at the highest in three days.



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Dec 05, 2014
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Non-farm payrolls: up 321k, US labour markets surge, job gains widespread.


FXStreet (London) - Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a huge jump in US job numbers.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 321,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8 percent.

Job gains were widespread, led by growth in professional and business services, retail trade, health care, and manufacturing.

The increase compares with an average monthly gain of 224,000 over the prior 12 months.

Today’s print marks the tenth straight month of 200k+ gains, the longest run since 1995.



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Dec 05, 2014
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USD/CAD in fresh 2014 highs


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US dollar is now accelerating its appreciation vs. the CAD, pushing USD/CAD to print fresh multi-year tops.

USD/CAD lifted by NFP

Spot is intensifying its upside momentum following the upbeat results from the US Payrolls during November, coming in at 321K vs. 232K forecasted; the unemployment rate remained at 5.8%, broadly in line with market consensus. Data releases from the Canadian docket showed the Net Change in Employment decreased by 10.7K vs. 5.0K previously estimated and the jobless rate at 6.6% from October’s 6.5%.

USD/CAD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is up 0.40% at 1.1424 with the next resistance at 1.1459 (high Dec.1) ahead of 1.1466 (2014 high Nov.5) and finally 1.1500 (psychological level). On the downside, a break below 1.1341 (low Dec.4) would target 1.1319 (low Dec.2) and then 1.1316 (Kijun Sen).



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Dec 05, 2014
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Massive NFP number - up 321k


FXStreet (London) - The US non-farm payrolls just printed a massive number, adding 321K new jobs in November, a huge leap on expectations of a 230k print.



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Dec 05, 2014
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Canada Unemployment Rate in line with forecasts (6.6%) in November


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Dec 05, 2014
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EUR/USD testing fresh lows post-Payrolls



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The offered tone is now picking up pace around the single currency, sending EUR/USD to fresh intraday lows below the 1.2300 handle.

EUR/USD hurt by upbeat Non farm Payrolls

The pair has seen its demand depressed further after the US economy added 321K jobs during November, surpassing estimates at 232K and up from October’s 243K (revised from 214K). More data showed the jobless rate stayed put at 5.8%, matching previous surveys. Still in the US economy, the trade deficit came in at $43.40 billion during October vs. 43.6 billion in the previous month. Next of note will be Factory Orders (0.1% exp. in October), the speech by Fed’s S.Fischer and the Consumer Credit Change ($16.48 billion exp.)

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is retreating 0.03% at 1.2377 with the next support at 1.2280 (2014 low Dec.4) ahead of 1.2256 (low Aug.16 2012) and finally 1.2242 (low Aug.10 2012). On the upside, a breakout of 1.2426 (10-d MA) would expose 1.2453 (21-d MA) and then 1.2476 (high Dec.2).


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Dec 05, 2014
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GBP/USD calm ahead of key US job numbers – MP



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kenny Fisher, Currency Analyst at MarketPulse, notes that GBP/USD is calm ahead of the US job numbers, trading slightly below 1.57 levels.

Key Quotes

“GBP/USD lost ground in Asian trade, testing support at 1.5624. The pair reversed directions late in the Asian session and has erased the earlier losses, as it continues to post gains in European trade.”

“1.5717 is a weak resistance line. 1.5864 is stronger.”

“On the downside, 1.5644 is under strong pressure. 1.5505 is next”

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Dec 05, 2014
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Does the current account deficit matter for GBP? BAML



FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch FX strategists, GBP is showing obverse behaviour as it trends higher while the increasing current account deficit in the UK should lead to a soft impact on the currency.

Key Quotes

Over the medium-term, a large and deteriorating external trade position is ultimately negative for a currency and leaves it vulnerable during periods of heightened volatility. The UK continues to run a dual deficit with large public sector deficits alongside external imbalances. Yet, despite this, GBP is some 20% higher in TWI terms from its post-GFC lows.

Admittedly, the imbalances that the UK faces are not unique; indeed, the budget deficit has been nearly halved as a % of GDP. But the resilience of GBP to the deterioration of the current account has been one of the more curious aspects of GBP performance in recent years.

The Bank of England1 believes that the cyclical downturn in the euro area will keep FDI returns weak over the coming years but believes that the UK's net international investment position (NIIP) is far healthier than official data would suggest if the stock of FDI assets is marked to market. Under its scenario, the UK's NIIP would have been circa +30% of GDP in 2013 versus broadly balanced according to official estimates. The BoE concludes that valuation effects should keep NIIP broadly stable in future against the backdrop of the current account deficit.

For GBP, if the Bank of England is correct on its revised NIIP measure, this should come as some relief and alleviate concerns that the persistence of large current account deficits presents a clear and present danger for the pound.


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Dec 05, 2014
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Wall street likely to open on a flat note



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The action in the US index futures indicates the markets are likely to open on a flat note after posting modest gains in the previous session. The DJIA futures and the S&P futures are trading dead flat ahead of the opening bell.

On the data front, the ADP report showed another rise in the private sector employment in November, although the pace of job additions fell short of the economists’ expectation. Meanwhile, another report from the labor department showed that labor productivity rose by more than previously estimated in the third quarter.

The Equity markets in the US will watch out for the ISM services index, which is likely to have inched up to 57.5 in November from 57.1 in October. The Federal Reserve is also scheduled to release its Beige Book report later in the day.

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Dec 03, 2014
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Gold gains marginally after ADP miss



FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices moved marginally higher after the ADP employment report showed a slowdown in the job additions in November.

Gold now trades at USD 12064.70/Oz levels, slightly higher than the pre-data level of USD 1202.70/Oz. The yellow metal was pushed higher by the ADP reported which printed at 208K, lower than the market expectation of 222K. The ADP number stood at 230K in October. The gains in the yellow metal are not significant and may be erased since the US dollar as well as the Treasury yields have not reacted significantly to the weaker-than-expected data.

Gold Technical Levels

Gold has an immediate resistance located at 1208, above which prices may extend gains to 1221.00 levels. Meanwhile, support is seen at 1200.00 (50-DMA) and 1191.80 levels.

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Dec 03, 2014
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BoC statement to remain neutral – TDS



FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to the Research Team at TD Securities, a weaker CAD, lower crude oil prices combined with the strength shown by growth & inflation will keep the BoC neutral today.

Key Quotes

“USDCAD has traded lower overnight defying both the stronger big-dollar trend and the softer tone in crude oil prices that have carried over from yesterday.”

“Our expectation is that the BoC statement will remain neutral, balancing risks from lower crude oil prices with the recent strength shown by both economic growth and inflation and the shock-absorbing services paid by a weaker CAD.”

“On the charts, the USD’s rejection of the early November high at 1.1465 again earlier this week leaves a bit of a dark technical cloud over the near-term USDCAD outlook and the drag of the CAD crosses (EURCAD nearing 1.40 again) may see funds struggle to break decisively higher for the moment.”
“We rather think the near-term outlook favours a little more range trading, with USDCAD well-supported in the low 1.13s.”

“Fundamentally, we think minor dips are a buy; Fundamentally, USDCAD looks under-valued relative to our spot fair value estimate (based on spreads and terms of trade) of 1.1610 currently.“

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Dec 03, 2014
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