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EUR trading soft within Friday’s range – Scotiabank


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, notes that EUR is soft in the open as market rumours swirl on QE, trading weak within Friday’s range.

Key Quotes

“EUR has trended lower throughout the Asian and European sessions, but is still trading within Friday’s range. The ECB announced that €40bn in 3yr LTROs will be repaid, which warns that the overall take‐up of ECB TLTROs is relatively low and increases the risk of QE. This week’s EU Summit (December 18/19) is unlikely to create a notable EUR reaction; with the focus on the U.S. Fed meeting and the release of CPI. We expect EUR to trend lower overtime and hold a y ear‐end 2015 forecast of 1.18.”




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Dec 15, 2014
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Ongoing fall in oil is starting to affect risk assets – RBS


FXStreet (Barcelona) - John Briggs of RBS notes that the ongoing fall in oil is clearly affecting the risk assets with high yield debt markets suffering since October, and currencies – Yen and Swiss Franc gaining on equity and energy market declines.

Key Quotes

“Last week, particularly the trading sessions at the end of the week, were very interesting in that the oil price decline shifted from being a "good for growth and thus longer term inflation" versus "bad for inflation and tricky for the Fed" debate to a simple risk-off catalyst. At RBS we have had an ongoing belief that markets will not be able to transition from years of US quantitative easing to a rate hike cycle without any sort of hiccup. A 40% decline in crude oil over 3 months, however, was admittedly not at the top of the list.”

“The ongoing fall is clearly starting to affect risk assets and all that goes along with them. High yield debt markets have been suffering since October, but one can tell how sentiment is shifting to broader markets such as global equities and currencies. On Friday, even FX had a tone of classic risk-off, with the yen and Swiss franc strengthening (a bit) on equity market and energy market declines. The overnight action this morning is no different – an oil rally causing US stocks to bounce and rates to retreat.”




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Dec 15, 2014
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Policy divergence to be the clear theme for USD strength in 2015 BAML


FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, note that Fed acknowledging inflation concerns due to declining oil prices may temper their USD-positive base case in the near term, but see policy divergence to remain the key catalyst for a strong USD in 2015.

Key Quotes

Our base case has the Fed largely looking past the big drop in oil prices and breakevens, expecting inflation to rise toward target next year. New York Fed President Bill Dudley articulated that view last week. That said, a few other Fed officials have sounded more concerned about low inflation recently, and the low inflation risks continue to grow, particularly abroad. Thus, a lower-probability but dovish risk to our base case would arise if the FOMC were to acknowledge risks from persistently low inflation, or if Yellen mentions it in her press conference.

Right now, the decline in TIPS breakevens may be, in part, a consequence of the Fed not giving them much attention. In our base case, breakevens can decline further and put downward pressure on the long end, with the 5s-30s curve flattening further and perhaps 10y yields declining outright. However, if this meeting were to suggest greater policy emphasis on low inflation going forward, that would support the 2y-5y part of the curve and likely push out of the market implied timing of the first rate hike, resulting in a steeper curve.

In FX markets, elevated concern about low inflation could temper the USDpositive signals of our base case in the near term. But, despite the risks at this particular meeting, policy divergence is a clear market theme and the pieces remain in place for a strong USD in 2015.




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Dec 15, 2014
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EUR/JPY fails to hold above 148.00


FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/JPY jumped after the beginning of the American session as the yen weakened across the board and climbed to 148.16 reaching the strongest level since Wednesday.

But the pair failed to hold above 148.00 as the USD/JPY retreated from 119.10 to 118.65 while EUR/USD remained steady above 1.2450, near daily highs.

EUR/JPY unable to erase losses

Despite rising for the second day in a row on Friday the euro is headed toward a weekly decline versus the yen ahead of Japanese elections as currently trades at 147.80.

The pair is about to post the first weekly loss after rising consecutively during the previous eight weeks.




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Dec 12, 2014
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GBP/USD technicals are mixed ahead of key week - Scotiabank


FXStreet (Guatemala) - Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank noted the recent developments of GBP/USD while we await for next week’s key data releases from US and UK.

Key Quotes:

"GBP had a quiet Asian and European session, trading in a relatively narrow 40‐point range. Data today was limited, but disappointing with construction output falling –2.2%m/m and up just 0.7%y/y; however there was a large upside revision to the September print."

"GBP/USD short‐term technicals: mixed—The chart pattern suggest a temporary period of rest. Support lies within the recent range of 1.5652 to 1.5757."




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Dec 12, 2014
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GBP/USD remains in bearish territory


FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/USD is trading at 1.5735, up 0.11% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5747 and low at 1.5695.

GBP/USD is up on the greenbacks weakness, lower US yields and sharp losses in equities all due to oil losses. The major has risen again and away from the supporting area of low 1.57’s, breaking up through the 1.5740 resistances and five-month downtrend.

Above here, key resistance remains at 1.6184, which is the October high as noted by Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank who explained while below here the market remains bearish.

Next week is packed on the calendar and markets will be turning towards, UK CPI, UK MPC Minutes, UK Unemployment, US CPI, US FOMC and UK Retail Sales.




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Dec 12, 2014
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AUD/USD consolidates below 0.8300


FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD entered a consolidation phase after the latest upside attempt faltered just ahead of 0.8300 as investors remain mostly sidelined ahead of the weekend with the latest string of US data having no impact on the greenback.

AUD/USD touched a fresh 4 ½-year low of 0.8216 Thursday after RBA Governor Stevens said he now saw a fair value for the currency around 0.7500. However, market decided to ignore Stevens and AUD/USD managed to recover some ground and reached a daily high of 0.8298 before finding resistance.

Having spent most of the day in a narrow range, AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.8265, virtually unchanged on the day.




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Dec 12, 2014
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Gold trades marginally lower ahead of the US session


FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices recovered intraday losses on weak European equities and weak US index futures.

Gold now trades 0.06% lower at USD 1224.90/Oz levels, after having recovered from the low of USD /Oz hit earlier today. Prices recovered during the European session after the bearish Oil demand forecast from the International Energy Agency pushed the European stock markets lower. The German DAX is down 1.32%, while the Ftse is down 1.39%. Meanwhile, weakness in the European equities has pushed the US index futures into the negative territory. The S&P futures have weakened % at the time of writing.

Furthermore, the falling US treasury yields are supporting Gold prices as well. The 10-yr Treasury yield in the US retreated 5.6 basis points to trade at 2.122%. Consequently, the US dollar index too, has declined 0.30% to trade at 88.32 levels.

Gold Technical Levels

Gold has an immediate support located at 1221.18 (5-DMA), under which prices could test 1210.18 (10-DMA). Meanwhile, resistance is seen at 1233 and 1237 levels.



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Dec 12, 2014
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India Manufacturing Output fell from previous 2.5% to -7.6% in November


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Dec 12, 2014
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United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) in line with expectations (1.8%) in November


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Dec 12, 2014
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Oil fell yesterday after IEA cut global demand forecast – Malcolm Graham-Wood



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Independent Analyst, Malcolm Graham-Wood notes that yesterday it was IEA which fuelled further downward pressure on oil price after it cut the global demand forecasts for the 4th time in past 5 months.

Key Quotes

“Yesterday it was the turn of the IEA to keep the downward pressure on the oil price by cutting its global demand forecast for the 4th time in five months. Their number is now for a rise of 900/- b/d, down 230/- from their previous forecast/guess. They now, like Opec have a call on the cartel of 28.9m b/d which may be optimistic.”

“Whilst I still believe that there is no obvious floor for the oil price at least in the short term, it will be interesting to see when forecasters decide that prices down here will stimulate demand.”



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Dec 12, 2014
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USD/CAD may test 1.1690 level in the near‐term – Scotiabank



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, anticipates USD/CAD to test 1.1690 in the near term, supported by near and medium term technicals which warn of an ongoing upside pressure.

Key Quotes

“CAD has reached fresh 5.5 year lows, having lost a further 0.5% in the Asian and European sessions. The drop has been on the back of a further fall in oil prices, yesterday’s steady tone from Governor Poloz, and bearish CAD technicals; ignoring the better than expected data from China. The only domestic data released today is Teranet housing prices; leaving CAD trading off of oil and broader developments.”

“Near and medium term technical studies warn of ongoing upside pressure. The upward trend is strong and with the RSI at just 67, there is still significant upside room before reaching overbought levels. We are biased to be long USDCAD. For short‐term traders we would look for a near term test of 1.1690 and would place a stop at 1.1495.”




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Dec 12, 2014
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GBP/USD erases intraday losses



FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD shrugged off disappointing UK construction data and managed to erase intraday losses to trade nearly flat into the North American opening.

GBP/USD bottomed out at 1.5693 following much worse than expected UK construction output data (-2.2% vs +0.8%) but it climbed back toward 1.5720 to trade effectively unchanged on the day.

Datawise, the US data includes producer prices data and the Reuters/Michigan Consumer sentiment index but non first-tier data, so investors will probably refrain from taking big positions ahead of the weekend.

GBP/USD technical levels

As for technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 1.5735 (daily high) and 1.5755 (Dec 11 high) while supports could be found at 1.5693 (daily low) and 1.5677 (10-day SMA).





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Dec 12, 2014
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Dollar consolidates as Oil slide continues BBH



FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team, notes that the decline in oil prices has not only proven to be a setback for the dollar, but spurred losses in equities and pushed down bond yields as well.

Key Quotes

Markets are reacting to the cuts in demand forecasts by OPEC and IEA. Oil prices have fallen about 10% this week. Brent finished last week near $69.10 and now is quoted around $63.25. WTI finished last week just below $66 and now is just above $59. This was driven by slowing of the Chinese economy coupled with increased output in the US (which reached a new high of 9.12 mln barrels a day in the week of December 5), and larger OPEC discounts.

This precipitous decline in oil prices hits the global economy as deflationary forces still threaten large parts of the world economy. It has knocked down US 10-year yields. After the constructive employment report, US 10-year yields finished last week near 2.30%. Today they touched 2.11%. And this despite continued robust data (see yesterday's 0.7% rise in headline retail sales) and speculation that next week's FOMC statement will delete or dilute the reference to "considerable period" as the next step towards preparing investors for a rate hike next year.

The decline in oil prices not only pushed down bond yields, but spurred sharp losses in the equity markets and a setback in the US dollar. The yen is the strongest currency this week, recovering a little more than 2.5%. The New Zealand dollar is in second place, helped by a less dovish central bank. The euro is about 1.2% higher on the week after recording new cyclical lows on Monday. Sterling rose about 0.75% this week.




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Dec 12, 2014
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USD/CHF hits fresh lows at 0.9670



FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF broke below 0.9690 and dropped to 0.9670 reaching a fresh daily low. The pair was holding below 0.9690 with bearish momentum.

USD/CHF breaks range

The pair traded during most of the day in a range with support at 0.9690 and resistance at 0.9720/25. After testing once again the upper limit, turned to the downside and broke the support, as EUR/USD rose to fresh highs above 1.2400.

Despite the recent movements, today’s price range still remained inside yesterday’s range. USD/CHF was headed toward the third daily decline in a row.





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Dec 10, 2014
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CBOE VIX blasts higher



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) has shot up, after breaking out of a month long trading range due to the risk aversion in the financial markets.

The CBOE VIX currently trades 9.20% higher at 16.26 levels, compared to the previous session’s close of 14.89 levels. The index had opened higher yesterday, although late recovery in the stock markets made sure the volatility gauge finished lower.

However, the index may continue to inch higher today as renewed sell-off in Crude prices may push stock prices lower in the US and Europe.

CBOE VIX Technical Levels

The index has been trading largely in a range of 16.28 to 11.53 for over a month now. A breach of 16.28 on closing basis, shall open doors for 18.43 and 20.00 levels. Meanwhile, a break below 11.53 may push the index down to immediate support at 11.24.





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Dec 10, 2014
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AUD/JPY longs squeezed out in last push for September highs



FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/JPY is trading at 98.50, down -0.74% on the day, having posted a daily high at 99.49 and low at 98.36.

AUD/JPY has extended losses on a continuation of the downtrend and unwinding in the carry, pushing the hourly RSI towards oversold territory. Risk sentiment is fading and concerns for global growth risks are mounting with investors looking to the safe havens, such as the yen, and longs are being squeezed out of positions as the Yen continues to strengthen.

We have moved down to September highs and rapidly where there may be strong support. However a break of these levels opens up the downside wide open to the psychological 98.00 level.

Fundamentally, the FOMC may play a big roll next week in market developments and should the dollar continue to unwind then this may balance out the scales of the cross to some extent with a buoyed Aussie dollar as a result. However, the snap election results are up this weekend ad this prove unfavourable to Abe and support further supply in USD/JPY.





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Dec 10, 2014
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Counting on the balance sheet – BNP


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Analysts at BNP Paribas note that the ECB has signaled that it intends to bring its balance sheet back to the level prevailing in early 2012.

Key Quotes:

“The balance sheet expansion is an instrument that has been used by central banks to overcome the Zero Lower Bound of policy rates and to signal an easier monetary policy stance. It also wants to see inflation back to target “without delay” and “as fast as possible”, to quote President Draghi, The rise in the base money will first depend on the success of the upcoming targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTROs)”.

“We expect the next operation, to be conducted on December the 11th, to encounter strong demand, at the upper range of estimates. However, it is likely that the measures adopted so far (TLTROs, ABS and Covered Bond purchase programs), will not be enough to fully achieve the ECB’s balance sheet objective”.

“Under these circumstances the ECB would be forced to enlarge the list of assets it currently purchases”.





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Dec 10, 2014
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EUR trading flat – Scotiabank


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, notes that EUR is flat with no fundamental data and ignoring ECB’s Hansson’s comments that they will turn to corporate bonds before sovereign.

Key Quotes

“EUR is flat to yesterday’s close, after trading in a tight 37‐point range during the Asian and European sessions. Yesterday’s profit taking was important and has forced some of the move vulnerable shorts out of the market; however the failure to close above last Friday’s open of 1.2379 or high of 1.2393 puts important emphasis on today’s close. Should EUR fail again to close above these levels it would be technically bearish; should it break above it would open up a test to 1.2470.”

“There was no data released today. The ECB’s Hansson suggested that corporate bond buying should be pursued before sovereigns and that in principle the ECB could look to equities; but that it is too early to judge if the central bank will commit to action in January.”

“EURUSD short‐term technicals: mixed—warning of a short‐period of stability. Support lies at the recent low of 1.2247, a break below here would open up a test to 1.2200; while resistance comes in at yesterday’s high of 1.2448. A close above 1.2379 today would open up a nearterm test to yesterday’s high followed by 1.2500.”




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Dec 10, 2014
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EUR/NOK climbs to fresh 5-year high


FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/NOK has pushed to fresh 5-year highs Wednesday despite in line with expectations Norwegian inflation data, as oil prices remain as the main driver for the krone.

Norges Bank decision tomorrow

Norway's CPI came exactly in line with expectations of +1.9% the headline and +2.4% the core ahead of the Norges Bank decision tomorrow (target 2.5%). The central bank is expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.5% despite recent oil prices slump.

However, according to Jane Foley, analyst at Rabobank, commented that in view of the risks to growth the chances that the Norges Bank will set the scene for further rate cuts has grown. “The continuation of sluggish growth in the Eurozone combined, the increased pressure on the oil price combined with the moderation in core inflation suggests scope for a reduction in the 1.5% policy rate potentially as soon as the March Norges Bank meeting”, said the analyst.

EUR/NOK climbed to a 5-year high of 8.9354 and it is currently trading around 8.9000, recording a 0.95% gain on the day.




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Dec 10, 2014
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GBP/JPY trims losses


FXStreet (Córdoba) - The pound is trading slightly lower against the yen on Wednesday, falling for the second day in a row, but far from the lows.

GBP/JPY bottomed earlier at 186.14 but then bounced to the upside and recently reached 187.30. Currently trades at 187.05/10, 0.15% below todays opening price.

Trade balance data from the United Kingdom had no impact on the pound. The deficit fell in October to the lowest level in seven months, at £2bn, below the £2.8bn in September.

GBP/JPY steady

Price action across the board remains mostly calm following sharp movements yesterday, when GBP/JPY dropped from 189.20 to 185.16; today the price range so far has been of 160 pips.




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Dec 10, 2014
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LME Inventory Update


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The daily warehouse stocks data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) today showed a rise in the inventory levels of Copper and Zinc. Meanwhile, the inventory levels of Nickel, Aluminium and Lead declined.

Copper stocks rose by 950 tonnes today, while Aluminium inventory and Lead inventory decreased by 10100 tonnes and 2200 tonnes respectively. Nickel stocks declined by 162 tonnes, while that of Zinc increased 3200 tonnes.




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Dec 09, 2014
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