mynameisandhy

WTI Crude Oil Prices Already Decline For 7 Sunday Due to Supply Issues

Friday, January 9th, 2015

Crude oil prices are likely to be closed lower than last week's closing price which is a decrease of 7 consecutive weeks. This price reduction is caused by the lack of signal production cuts by major producing countries of OPEC crude oil in particular.

The price of WTI and Brent crude oil futures had hit the lowest level since 2009 this week and has dropped more than 50% compared to prices in June.

However, crude oil prices rebounded in the last 2 days due to good US economic data raised optimism that the growth of demand.

The price of WTI crude oil futures for February delivery touched the level of $ 49.50 per barrel today. Prices are now moving lower in the range of $ 48.70 per barrel.

The oil price decline occurred because of the reluctance of the OPEC countries, led by Saudi Arabia to cut production. Though the outlook for global crude oil demand is also seen slowing.

Signal demand from the world's largest crude oil consumer, China, also push down the price of crude oil. Consumer Price Index Data of China (1.5%) are still at a low level in 5 years, released today indicates that China is in the path of a slowdown.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

China's inflation rate y / y to Grow 1.5% in December

Friday, January 9th, 2015

China's consumer inflation rate is still well in December, at the time of factory prices continue to fall.

China's consumer price index rose by 1.5% at an annual rate in December, up slightly from 1.4% rise in November, the data shown by the statistics bureau of China on Friday.

The main index according to the median estimate of 17 economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal.

Inflation index also rose by 0.3% in December. In November, inflation fell 0.2% on a monthly level. Overall inflation rose by 2% for 2014.

China's producer price index fell by 3.3% at an annual rate in December, this is a decline for 34 consecutive months.

The decline was greater than the decline of 2.7% in November, and exceed the median estimate for a 3.2% decline.

Monthly PPI also fell by 0.6% in December. PPI fell by 0.5% in November. For 2014 as a whole, the PPI fell 1.9%.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

Sterling Preserve Post Strengthening Manufacturing Production Data

Friday, January 9th, 2015

Pound sterling managed to strengthen against the dollar to trade the European session today, and temporarily stop penutunan in five consecutive days. Rising UK manufacturing production was able to maintain the strengthening of sterling.

Office for National Statistc report UK manufacturing production rose 0.7% in November from the previous month were down 0.7%. Percentage increase in November was higher than economists forecast of 0.4%. ONS also reported the British trade deficit narrowed to £ 8.8 billion, better than economists' forecasts of £ 9.5 billion. While the deficit in October was revised to £ 9.8 billion from the previous release of £ 9.6 billion.

GBPUSD traded in the range of 1.5126 at 16:58 pm, with daily lows and highs 1.5076 1.5148 (Monex Trader platform)

The next focus on non-farm payrolls will be released tonight. The US economy is expected to add 241,000 workers in December, from a sharp increase 321 000 in November. The ADP report on Wednesday that said the private sector has added 241,000 workers, better than economists estimated 227,000 making optimism apiknya NFP data will be released today

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Collapsing Euro Ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls Data

Friday, January 9th, 2015

The Euro is under pressure due to expectations of monetary easing by the ECB's massive, especially the investors anticipate a key US employment data that sustains scenario solid Fed interest rate hikes.

ECB President Mario Draghi signaled that the ECB board members are more ready to take action if needed to overcome the conventional no risk of low inflation (deflation), thus spurring expectations of ECB monetary easing later this month.

So far the pairing EURUSD dropped to 1.1792, after reaching its lowest point at 1.1783 intraday and daily highs at 1.1814. Overall the single currency has dropped -5.3% in the past four weeks, recorded its sharpest slowdown since May 2012.

Technically daily closing below 2010 lows at 1.1877, could trigger a bearish momentum targeting low area in 2005 at the level of 1.1640 as targets major support. Euro zone economic data weak, among others, the German industrial production, trade balance as well as French industrial production that fell below estimates also did not help.

Another negative catalysts, anxiety Greek election results on 25 January which can cause anxiety Greek default if the bailout program fails to be met by the party winning the Greek election, so this is the reason for market participants to add short positions in the EURUSD pairing. Instead the US dollar index rose against various other currencies as investors took the positioning on the US nonfarm payrolls data were positive tonight.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

Negative German Industrial Production in November

Friday, January 9th, 2015

German industrial production unexpectedly fell for the first time in three months in November amid declining energy output, sinyalkan that the recovery in the country with Europe's largest economy is still fragile.

Outut, which are customized to seasonal fluctuations, fell by 0.1% from October, when output rose a revised 0.6%, in the report by the Ministry of Economic Affairs in Berlin today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 0.3% rise. Production fell by 0.5% from a year ago.

Bundesbank has said that the German economy will only "moderate growth" in the fourth quarter, after effectively stagnated in the previous six months. At the time of the survey showed economic sentiment in Germany improved, the outlook is in contrast with other euro zone member states that are struggling on low growth, the decline in the exchange rate as well as political ketidaktsabilan in Greece.

Andrew Ress, chief German economist at UniCredit MIB in Munich say that the message is very important that we have had the point is we need a little patience. In business sentiment, there must be sufficient evidence that proves even more German companies have started to recover.

Today's data shows the energy output fell by 2.4% in November from the previous month and down 0.6% construction. The manufacturing sector rose by 0.3%, in the crutch by the increase in investment and output of consumer goods.

Oil Successfully Stop Decline streak

Thursday, January 8th, 2015

US crude oil prices to close up on Wednesday, the first increase in four sessions, with traders seem bargain hunting after a decline of almost 10% in the last 2 days. Support for oil prices appear after weekly supply data showed a decline in US crude oil unexpectedly last week, although the supply of gasoline and oil distillation still rise beyond expectations. Crude oil prices had dropped after euro zone inflation data released by the negative for the first time in 5 years, rebounding after the oil supply data released by the US Energy Information Administration. EIA said US crude oil supplies fell by more than 3 million barrels last week, dbiandingkan analyst expectations for an increase of 880 000 barrels. But supply at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery destination US crude rose more than 1 million barrels. Gasoline supplies rose more than 8 million barrels of oil and distiliasi rose more than 11 million barrels.

Some analysts said the US employment data were positive on Wednesday helped restore oil market sentiment. Private companies in the US as much as 241.00 add jobs in December, exceeding analyst estimates, according to the ADP survey. Some traders said the oil market may be at a crossroads after falling more than half of the high level in June last year, especially after a fall of 10% in the last 2 days. While other market participants predict price movements Wednesday only temporary rebound ahead of further decline.

"I think this is just a dead cat bounce," said Tariq Zahir, a member at Tyche Capital Advisors in Laurel Hollow, New York. "Nothing fundamental has changed. Investors are trying to determine the basis and has been proven wrong for weeks."

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Eurozone Retail Sales Rise 2 months in a row

Thursday, January 8th, 2015

Euro zone retail sales recorded an increase for the 2nd month in a row in November, indicating if the sharp decline in crude oil prices have pushed the purchase of other goods and help sustain economic growth.

The EU statistics agency reports Thursday showed retail sales grew 0.6% to 2 months in a row, which brought the annual increase to 1.5%. The data reflects both consumer spending growth in the 4th quarter, with the fall in world oil prices has made the possibility of households have more money to buy other goods and services.

The strong rise in retail sales during October and November can also erode concerns about the risk of the fall of the Euro zone into deflation. Concerns were heightened, especially after economic data released Wednesday showed a decline in consumer prices 18-nation bloc, the first negative number since 2009

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Stagnant in December

Thursday, January 8th, 2015

The European Commission said the euro zone economic sentiment index stagnant 100.7 in December. Economists had forecast economic sentiment to rise to 101.2. Industrial confidence level was reported down to -5.2 from -4.3 in November of. While the service sector sentiment rose to 5.6 from 4.4.

The fragility of the economic recovery of the country's 19 blocks weigh on economic sentiment, the report was released after reportedly entered the euro zone deflation for the first time in five years in December. Attention is now focused on the European Central Bank will hold a monetary policy meeting next two weeks.

Another report released today by Eurostat showed eruo zone retail sales rose 0.6% in November from the previous month, and better than economists' forecast of 0.3%

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

Keep BOE Interest Rate Reference

Thursday, January 8th, 2015

The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate of 0.5% at the monetary policy meeting today, taking into account the decline in oil prices can make inflation further away from the central bank's inflation target. Nine members of policymakers also agreed to maintain the asset purchase program at £ 375 billion.

BOE Governor, Mark Carney last November said inflation in the UK will soon drop below 1%, a decline that require Carney to write an open letter to the head of the Treasury, George Osborne, to explain why ordinary inflation fell more than 1% of the central bank's target of 2%.

Estimates of the BOE showed inflation will reach the target by the end of 2017, although it is also estimated that economic growth will continue and the unemployment rate declined. The investor expects the BOE will maintain its benchmark interest rate until early 2016

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

German Factory Orders Down in November

Thursday, January 8th, 2015

The number of German factory orders fell for the first time in three months in November, reflecting the slowdown in the recovery of confidence in the country with the largest economy in Europe.

Data from the German economy ministry showed that the number of bookings, which is adjusted for seasonal changes and inflation, fell by 2.4% after a revised 2.9% to the increase in October. Economists in a Bloomberg survey earlier prediction for a decline of 0.4% from a year ago.

Germany getting squeezed to avoid a recession as it did in mid-2014, and the Bundesbank said last month that the economy is only "modest recovery," in the fourth quarter. At the time of the survey showed German economic sentiment improved, sentiment in the Euro area as a whole is struggling with sluggish growth, plus the decline in the value of the currency and the unstable political situation in Greece.

Before the report was released, Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London, said that recent worries about the eurozone members including Greece may hamper short-term rebound in business confidence and investment sentiment. But should risk it could be solved.

Continue to Decline, Translucent Oil Prices Down Level $ 47

Wednesday, January 7th, 2015

Global oil markets fell back to fourth day on Tuesday, still searching for essentially the price of crude oil is at its lowest level since the spring of 2009 in the growing concerns about global oil supply surplus. Traders said the trend for oil price still seems to be down, but the price may rebound when there are no surprises on the market sentiment. One is the current US economic data over burusk of expectations pressing dollars for a while. This makes the price of oil in spite of the low level of the session, but only briefly before resuming the downward movement. On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah said in her speech that Saudi Arabia will face the challenges posed by the decline in oil prices "with a strong will," and do not give a signal that the No. 1 oil exporter will consider to cut the supply.

"I think the chances of oil prices to the level of $ 46 - $ 45 pretty wide open, '' according to Phillip Streible, strategic senior market at RJO Futures in Chicago." It seems that investors understand that the US is becoming one of the producers of crude oil is great and it will not change in the soon. ''

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

China's GDP is predicted Down To 7.2% In Q4

Wednesday, January 7th, 2015

Reuters survey showed that the possibility of China's economic growth will slow to 7.2% in the 4th quarter, the lowest level since the global crisis. This estimate is likely to continue to pressure policy makers to hold a sharper slowdown this year.

Expectations of growth in the world's second largest economy is down, from 7.3% in the 3rd quarter, making the target of 7.5% growth the government has failed to achieve and would mark the weakest expansion in 24 years. 7.2% growth in the 4th quarter will be the weakest since the first quarter of 2009, when China's economy grew 6.6% while China through the worst global crisis.

A survey of 31 economists showed that bank loans, investment in fixed assets and plant production growth may be stagnant in December, coupled with factory price deflation is likely to deteriorate and consumer price inflation held near 5-year lows.

GDP figures 4th quarter will be announced on January 20th.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Eurozone Inflation Fall Below Estimates

Wednesday, January 7th, 2015

Consumer price inflation in the euro zone shrank at an annual rate in December for his first time since the financial crisis five years ago. This situation would put additional pressure for the ECB to increase its stimulus program at the beginning of this month.

EU statistical agency reported lower CPI inflation of 0.2% compared to the level in December 2013, as well as a downfall for 22 consecutive months in which inflation well below the ECB's target level of 2%. Inflation has experienced a decreasing trend since August 2012, falling below 1.0% in October 2013 and fell below 0.5% in the month of July 2014.

If inflation continues downfall will reflect the economic situation worsened with the character of weak output growth with high inflation accompanied the fall in business investment.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Italy)

Unemployment Italy Print record high in November

Wednesday, January 7th, 2015

Italy's unemployment rate back up and scored a record high in November, prompting the Italian government to carry out reforms in the labor market to cut the unemployment rate.

Istat reported Italy's unemployment rate rose to 13.4% from 13.3% in October. From November 2013, the unemployment rate rose 0.9%. Percentage in November was the highest since Istat began collecting data in 2004 based monthly and quarterly basis in 1977.

The unemployment rate for those aged between 15 and 24 years Nauk be 43.9% in November. The number of young unemployed become a sensitive political issue in the past 11 months, the government of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi trying to overhaul the labor market system to help Italy out of the longest recession in decades backward

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

Unemployment in Germany Declining Sharply in December

Wednesday, January 7th, 2015

The number of unemployed in Germany suffer a sharp reduction in December, becoming the largest European pereknomian signal will accelerate this year.

The Federal Labor Agency reported the number of unemployed fell 27,000 to 2.841 million in December. This figure is much larger than economists forecast that predicted a decline of 5,000 people. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 6.5% was reported, a record low in more than two decades.

The health of the labor market to encourage the consumption level in Germany are expected to record a rise in the fourth quarter is 2014, and brought up to early 2015. Statistical Bureau Germany sebeelumnya reported retail sales rose 1.0% in November from the previous month, and estimates throughout 2014 retail sales will grow 1.2%

Selling Action Continues, Translucent Oil Price Below $ 49 / Barrel

Tuesday, January 6th, 2015

The decline in crude oil prices continued on Tuesday, after being hit by a sell-off earlier in the day. Market participants appear to be anticipating some additional bearish factor for this year, including worries about Greek debt and the appreciation of the US dollar.

Currently crude for delivery in February traded at around $ 49.10 / barrel, or about 1.8% below the closing price yesterday, after touching its lowest level $ 48.45 / barrel.

Strengthening of the US dollar, worries about Greek debt and the global oil supply conditions oversupply risk putting 'black gold' under significant pressure in the first half of 2015. These factors also encourage investors to focus on employment figures in the areas of shale oil drilling the US, which could be an early indicator of the decline in oil production. Changes in the number of drilling rigs, shopping company also could be another indication that noteworthy.

US shale oil revolution, aided by the commercialization of fracking and horizontal drilling technology, has fueled a boom in oil production and contributing to America's oil supply excess current

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

BOJ estimated Crop Projections Inflation

Tuesday, January 6th, 2015

Continued decline in oil prices make the Bank of Japan is expected to lower the inflation projection for the fiscal year ending March 2015. The central bank is not giving the signal will provide further monetary stimulus, but the decline in the inflation projection can be fueled speculation that there pemambahan stimulus, where the economists have also been estimated that possibility. Japanese inflation adjusted sales tax increase in November fell to 0.7%.

The BOJ is expected to lower the current inflation projection of 1.2% at the monetary policy meeting to be held on January 20 to 21 next. If there is then a decrease in the projection into the second after last October BOJ to do so, and surprised the market by increasing the monetary base or asset purchase program.

It is still not known whether the BOJ will lower inflation projection for the fiscal year ending March 2016, with current estimates of 1.7%. Japan's crude oil needs will be met almost entirely by imports, resulting in a short-term decline in oil prices will help curb inflation. In the long term, the decline in oil prices could trigger konsuem spending, which in turn will raise inflation. However, uncertainty arises how quickly it will happen, especially in the Japanese economy experienced deflation more than a decade

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Business World Eurozone growth lower than expected

Tuesday, January 6th, 2015

Businesses in the euro zone growth in December was lower than the initial release. The data from Markit showed a final reading of the composite index of business activity (manufacturing and services) rose to 51.4 in December from 51.1 in November. The index number is lower than the initial release of 59.7 and expectations of economists who predicted fixed at 59.7. A reading above 50 indicates ekspanasi or growth, while below 50 indicates contraction.

Survey of 5,000 manufacturing and service businesses are also showing in the coming months will not be a significant increase. For the last quarter of 2014, the composite index touched its lowest level since the third quarter of 2013, and gives an indication of the euro zone economic growth in the period from October to December will be lower than the previous three-month period. The eurozone economy grew only 0.2% in the third quarter from the second quarter grew only 0.1%.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

UK Construction Activity Slows in December

Tuesday, January 6th, 2015

UK service sector activity adds to signs of slowing momentum of the country's economic recovery after a previously reported decline in manufacturing activity and construction.

Markit report service sector activity index fell to 55.8 at the end of last year, from November amounted to 58.6. The index number is expected to increase to 58.9 break by economists, and the lowest level in 19 months.

Markit chief economist Chris Williamson, said the slowdown in the three sectors (manufacturing, construction, services) indicates slowing growth in the UK in the last quarter of last year, and probably in the range of 0.5%. The UK economy grew 0.7% in the third quarter from the previous quarter, with annual growth of 3%

News and Review of European Economic Zone (France)

French Consumer Confidence Continues to Recover

Tuesday, January 6th, 2015

French consumer confidence continued to rise for the second consecutive month in December and inflation expectations down, on show in the report of the French statistics bureau.

The level of trust is measured by Insee rose to 90 in December from 88 in November, it was the highest level since June 2012.

Inse said that the rebound in consumer confidence levels driven by the improvement in consumers' assessment of their finances. Sector households in the survey by Insee also said that the standard of living they rebounded in December from November, although they are still quite worried by rising unemployment.

The survey also showed that French consumer prices will rise in the estimate. The level of inflation expectations measured by Insee is currently at its lowest level since February 2010, and the proportion of households think that prices have risen strongly in the lowest level since 1999,

Oil falls to Lowest Level 5 1/2 Years

Tuesday, December 30th, 2014

Crude futures turned lower on Monday, hitting its lowest level in the last 5 1/2 years on speculation oversupply of crude oil will bring oil prices continue to fall in the first semesster 2015.

Previous oil rose as a result of the turmoil in Libya where the two largest oil terminal, Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, has been closed. But prices turned lower after investors expect disruption of supplies from Libya will not reduce the abundance of global oil supplies.

Oil prices are now heading the biggest decline since 2008 and is likely to record the second biggest annual decline since oil futures began trading in the 1980s. WTI crude oil on Monday's trading to close at $ 53.76 per barrel, with daily highs and lows $ 55.74 $$ 52.90.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Greece)

Sentiment Drag the Greek crisis European shares

Tuesday, December 30th, 2014

European stocks fell sharply on Tuesday heightened anxiety related burdened political future of Greece and also dragged by the fall of oil prices further.

So far the London FTSE index fell -0.91% to 6,552.5, while Germany's DAX slipped -0.74% at 9,869.5 and the French CAC fell -0.90% trading at 4,285.0 so far.

While the Spanish Ibex stock index and the FTSE MIB Italy also seem to be under pressure as fears of a systemic effect on volatility Greece is likely to be transmitted to the peripheral countries such as Spain and Italy. In addition, Spanish Ibex index was also pressured by the Spanish consumer price inflation report for December which dipped below estimates.

Prospects for new negotiations between Greece and its creditors after the bailout failed presidential voting results has raised new concerns for investors. In addition, the credit rating agency Fitch Ratings also said the current situation has become an additional risk for Greece's credit rating denagn worst case scenario is triggered defulat Greek bonds and finally had to get out of the Euro zone.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

Yen Towards Decline Three Years streak

Tuesday, December 30th, 2014

Japanese yen towards a three-year streak against the dollar after the Japanese government announced a fiscal stimulus package worth 3.5 tirliun yen ($ 29 billion) on Dec. 27 to stimulate the economy.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to strengthen the mandate in elections this month waiting for easing monetary policy, fiscal stimulus and structural reforms, which is commonly called the three arrows Abenomics. The yen has weakened by 33% against the dollar since Abe asks unlimited monetary easing in November 2012.

The difference between the central bank's policy of Japan with the US central bank will also be more striking, after the US central bank is expected to raise interest rates more quickly post apiknya US economic data. Chairwomen Federal Reserve Janet Yellen signaled the first rate hike since 2006, the earliest that can happen in April.

USDJPY in trading Monday closed up 0.22% to 102.41

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

PBOC Guard Yuan to Lowest Level 6-month

Tuesday, December 30th, 2014

Yuan exchange rate today again weakened against the US Dollar. Renminbi exchange rate dropped to its lowest position in the last 6 months after the central bank set the daily reference rate lower.

People's Bank of China stake for CNY main parity at 6.1224 level or weaker than the daily exchange rate on Monday at 6.1205 per US dollar. Yuan directly dipped to 6.2267 per USD, its lowest level since late June 2014 after hitting 6.2362 in the morning session. The central bank is marked out lower parity in line with the trend of strengthening of the dollar in overseas markets.

Looks great demand for dollars from big companies. Such a trend is likely to continue until the beginning of 2015. In other countries, non-deliverable forward 1-year USD / CNY was observed to be at 6.3625 / 6.3655 from 6.3605 level on Tuesday in / 6.3655.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Claim ECB Private Sector Credit Flow From Recovered

Tuesday, December 30th, 2014

The economic climate in the euro zone is still sluggish. But the European Central Bank confidence that conditions are better now, as seen from the results of the most recent data.

The latest economic reports showed that the level of borrowing funds to businesses in the euro zone rose in November compared to October 2014. However, when compared with the same period last year, the figure is still lower.

Private sector lending fell 0.9% compared to November 2013. Meanwhile, if in-comparison with a decrease in the period October 2014 which amounted to 1.1%, the percentage decline in November was lower. The general indicator of the money supply, M3, up 3.1% compared to November last year, higher than the increase in the money supply in October amounted to 2.5%.

The European Central Bank claims that the improved flow of loans in the private credit sector as a signal of business recovery in the Euro zone. "Credit flows began to recover in the Euro area," commentator ECB in its monthly report.