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Oil Price Drops Joint Stock Europe

Monday, December 8th, 2014

Crude oil prices fell for a fifth day and European stock markets fell from a high level almost for 7 years as the stock plunging energy producers. The dollar rose while Italian bonds weakened. Oil fell as the continuing global oversupply and OPEC opted to maintain its output targets, trigger cuts price forecast by some banks. Morgan Stanley cut its forecast for 2015 oil prices as much as 29% in the report dated December 5, related to the OPEC decision. Standard & Poor's cut Italy's credit rating belong to one level above investment grade and German Chancellor Angela Merkel added to the pressure on France and Italy to implement additional economic reforms.

"Prediction of crude oil prices have been cut, especially for the first quarter of 2015," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategist at Saxo Bank A / S. He estimated minayk Brent will drop to near $ 60 a barrel in the coming months, a decrease of about 12% from the current price.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

Japan's Current Account Surplus Higher From Estimates

Monday, December 8th, 2014

Japan's Ministry of Commerce reported a current account surplus higher than economists' estimates after increasing foreign investment and increased exports make trade deficit shrank. Reported a surplus of ¥ 833.4 billion, well above the estimate of economists surveyed by Dow Jones amounted to ¥ 358.0 billion. Japan has recorded a current account surplus in four months in a row.

Reported a primary surplus income of ¥ 2.02 trillion in October, up 48.3% from the previous year, and a record for the largest surplus in October. Shrinking trade deficit shrank 16.9% from a year earlier to ¥ 766.6 billion due to an increase in exports of cars and boats.

Other data released by the Cabinet Office of Japan today showed Japan's economy contracted more in the initial release in the third quarter of this year. Japan's gross domestic product fell 1.9% on an annual basis in the period from July to September, is greater than the initial release of 1.6%.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Greece)

Schaeuble: Greece Probably Need Extra Time

Monday, December 8th, 2014

Greece may membutukan longer time before the last stage of the bailout package can be disbursed by the international lenders, according to German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Monday in Brussels. This is not the first time Greece needs additional time to implement a program that disepakatan, Schaeuble said ahead of discussions with its partners in the eurozone, adding however overall Greece are in a great track. Eurozone finance ministers are considering to extend bailout for 8 months until mid-2015, according to documents obtained by Reuters last week. But the Athens says it is only willing to consider extended the program for a few weeks.

On the other hand, one of the ECB officials said that the weakening of the euro zone currency is not the goal of the European Central Bank. "Weakening the euro is not a concrete goal of the ECB," said Ewald Nowotny, a member of the Board of the ECB policy and Australia's central bank chief, describing the weakness of the euro just as a side effect of monetary policy.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

ECB's boss admits its Policy Not Running Effective

Monday, December 8th, 2014

One by one, stakeholders at the European Central Bank (ECB) to accept the fact that economic growth in the region do not run as expected. They were formerly desperately against monetary easing, now beginning to be lenient.

ECB policy council member Ewald Nowotny, acknowledged that European economic growth is 'excruciatingly slow'. In a forum in the city of Frankfurt, Germany a few hours ago, Nowotny expects the inflation rate will remain low at least until the initial quarter of 2015. "The euro zone will be a weak point in the map of the world economy," he said.

Nowotny statement is contrary to the stance a few months ago. He is one of the important people in the ECB are asking the public to wait for the effectiveness of central bank policy and reject any new monetary stimulus. However, towards the end of the year, economic conditions did not change as expected so Nowotny acknowledged that authorities face a big problem.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

German Production Output Declines in October

Monday, December 8th, 2014

German industrial output in October declined from the previous month and lower than expected, improving economic conditions will concern the fourth quarter of this year. Data from the Ministry of Economy showed manufacturing output grew 0.2% in October from the previous month, below economists' expectations which forecast a rise of 0.3%. Data output in September was also revised down to 1.1% from the previous release of 1.4%.

Details of the report showed manufacturing production rose 0.2% while construction output grew 1.4%.

The following data releases industrial orders data in October which showed an increase of 2.5% growth, better than economists forecast of 0.5%.

Potential Excessive Inventory, Oil Weakens

Friday, December 5th, 2014

West Texas Intermediate crude oil weakened by excessive concern was global oil supplies after OPEC decided to maintain crude oil production targets.

OPEC in November to produce 30.56 million barrels per day, exceeding the target of 30 million barrels in six consecutive months. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration reported US oil production rose to 9.08 million barrels per day in the week ended November 28, became the highest since the EIA began recording data in 1983.

EIA also reported that crude oil inventories fell 3.7 million barrels due to an increase in refinery operations, gasoline inventories rose 2.1 million barrels, while distillate fuel rose by 3 million barrels. Analysts had forecast crude oil inventories rose 380,000 barrels will, gasoline inventories unchanged, and distillate oil fell 1.2 million barrels.

WTI crude oil closed at $ 66.73 per barrel, with daily highs and lows $ 68.22 $ 66.09

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

Yen Help Nikkei Performance

Friday, December 5th, 2014

Nikkei rebounded after the successful return of a weaker yen encouraged investors to re-collect Japanese exporters. USDJPY traded 120.06 towards the close of the Asian session; seen trying to test the weakest level 7 years gained 120.24 yesterday. If the weakening of the yen continues then this can help improve the competitiveness of Japanese companies in the international market. Shares of exporters monitored rose where Nissan Motor and Fanuc each rose by 1.3% and 1.2%.

Itochu shares rose 1% after the release of a report that the Japanese trading company in collaboration with Thailand's CP Group companies to buy shares in Citic Securities, a leading finance company in China. However, stock car air bag manufacturer Takata fell 2% after Canada filed a class-action claims over the air bag problems produced Takata. Nikkei futures rose 0.2% and is now trading at 17 915.

However, investors appear reluctant to push up the index is too high as the outbreak of caution ahead of the publication of US employment data later that night. The US will release data on non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate for the month of November which could provide further guidance on the conditions of the world's largest economy.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Euro zone growth in Q3 Almost Stagnant

Friday, December 5th, 2014

Euro zone economy almost stagnated in the 3rd quarter, as the acceleration of consumer spending offset by a decrease in investment spending and contribution of trade.

Report of the European Union's statistics agency, Eurostat, Friday confirmed if GDP block-18 countries grew only 0.2% in the 3rd quarter, slightly accelerated from 0.1% growth recorded in the period from April to June. The data also indicate if the decline continues to hamper investment Euro zone economic recovery, which has been much weaker than expectations this year.

Eurostat said investment spending slipped 0.3% from the 2nd quarter and 1.3% lower than the 3rd quarter of 2013. That indicates that the business sector has not believe the economy will be strong enough to expand in the next few years to mandatangkan rise in profits . The reluctance of the business sector to invest also put a halt to recruitment. While the very low inflation rate seems to have increased the purchasing power of households, which boosted their consumption of 0.5% in the last quarter.

Economist of the European Central Bank on Thursday has lowered its forecast for 2015 economic growth to just 1.0% of the projection in September by 1.6%

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

Bundesbank Cuts Growth Outlook Germany

Friday, December 5th, 2014

Bundesbank cut its forecasts for inflation and economic growth in Germany until 2016, reflecting the conditions of the Euro zone which is struggling to increase consumer prices.

The central bank based in Frankfurt cut their forecasts for inflation in 2014 to 0.9% from 1.1% they predicted in June. Bundesbank cut its forecast for real GDP growth this year to 1.4% from 1.9%.

While countries with the largest economies in the euro zone supported by consumer spending behind unemployment is at a record low, the economy is still able to barriers of a fragile recovery and uneven in the Euro zone. ECB in the estimate will consider proposals for a broader asset purchases that include foreign debt securities at the next monetary policy meeting on 22 January, said two central bank officials who are familiar with the results of the meeting.

"There is reason to hope that the current slowdown phase that occurs in the German economy will only run short," Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said in a report.

Bundesbank saw German consumer prices rose 1.1% next year and 1.8% in 2016. GDP in the prediction will expand by 1% in 2015, or half of the previous prediction, and 1.6% for 2016. Projections have not calculated the decline in oil prices recently, the Bundesbank said.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

German Factory booking Gains in October

Friday, December 5th, 2014

German factory orders rose more than expected in October, in a sign that the country with Europe's largest economy continues to recover from the fall of the middle of last year.

Based on data released by the Ministry of Economy in Berlin today, the number of bookings, which are customized for seasonal changes and inflation, rose by 2.5% after a revised 1.1% to rise in September. Economists had predicted to rise 0.5%, according to the median estimate of 37 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Total bookings grew by 2.4% from a year ago.

German economy barely expanded in the last quarter after contracting in the three months to June, and the Bundesbank has said that growth will lose momentum until at least the end of this year. Euro zone, which is Germany's largest trading partner, striving to avoid stagnation, prompting the ECB to prepare for further stimulus measures if it is necessary.

"The figures are disappointing in a few months ago is a reflection of domestic investment demand fading," said David Milleker, chief economist at Union Investment GmbH in Frankfurt. "Utiliasi capacity itself is still quite high, so it should still be pretty good investment."

Domestic factory orders led the gains in October with a surge of 5.3%, compared with a rise of 0.6% in export orders, addressed in today's data. Investment goods rose by 3% and basic goods rose 2.5%. Booking for consumer goods fell 0.1%.

Fluctuating oil Consolidated Backup In US And OPEC action

Thursday, December 4th, 2014

West Texas Intermediate oil traded near $ 68 a barrel level as investors consider an unexpected decline in US crude oil reserves against the prospect of bertahannnya supply from OPEC.

Oil futures contract rose as much as 0.6% in New York. Based on the report from the Energy Information Administration overnight, US crude oil inventories slipped as much as 3.69 million barrels last week. Previous analysts expect to rise 1.75 million. Iraq, which is the second largest member of OPEC, signed an agreement with the Kurdish regional government will probably add about 300,000 barrels per day to supply the world after OPEC decided to maintain the level of output in the last week.

Oil fell by 18% in the last month as OPEC chose to let oil prices down in an attempt to force a slowdown in the rate of US production reached its highest level in more than three decades. Kuwait's oil minister said that OPEC action is to maintain market share in the global supply abundance after they rejected calls from some members including Venezuela to reduce production quotas on pertemuam on November 27.

Oil WTI January contract rose by 40 cents to $ 67.78 a barrel in electronic trading on the Nymex, and is currently engaged in a range of $ 67.66 at 8:59 pm. The contract yesterday rose by 50 cents, or 0.8%. be $ 67.38. Prices have dropped as much as 31% this year.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

The increase in the rate of UK House Prices Back Slows

Thursday, December 4th, 2014

The rate of growth in house prices in the UK again slowed in November as prices rose only 8.2% as compared to last year, the smallest increase since February, according to Halifax on Thursday. In November, house prices rose as much as 0.4%, recovering from a decline of 0.4% in October, says Halifax. Economists expect home prices rose as much as 8.0% and 0.3%. Bank of England welcomes the signal that the UK housing market is being eased after tens of percent price increase at the beginning of this year, which is partly due to the new control on housing loans.

Index annual house price increases by Halifax achieve a high level of 10.2% in July. In October, house prices rose as much as 8.8%. The rate of price growth is likely to return to slow down in 2015 as the prospect of higher interest rates and the recent increase in scale disappointing number of buyers, said Halifax. Halifax Economists forecast a rise in house prices nationwide are in the range of 3-5% in 2015, although his spokesman said the projection was made before the home purchase tax reshuffle announced by the Minister KeuanganGeorge Osborne on Wednesday.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

ECB Cuts Projected GDP and Inflation

Thursday, December 4th, 2014

European Central Bank cut its forecast for growth and inflation in the next 2 years on Thursday, saying the outlook had deteriorated since the latest projections released last September. The ECB expects the inflation rate in 2014 was at 0.5%, up slightly to 0.7% next year and 1.3% in 2016. The ECB also cut its forecast for economic output in the euro zone be 0.8% this year, 1.0% in 2015 and 1.5 % in 2016. in the month of September, the ECB predicts inflation will be at 0.6% this year, then rose to 1.1% in 2015 and 1.4% in 2016. The ECB also in September and expects gross domestic product to grow by 0.9 % this year and 1.6% in 2015 and 1.9% in 2016.

With slashed its forecast, which shows how the economy will evolve according to the ECB, the central bank of the euro zone will increase in expectation of additional steps to shore up the region's economy. President of the ECB President Mario Draghi has recently opened up opportunities for additional policies to prevent a decrease in the growth rate and the rate of inflation and rising expectations that such measures will be taken as soon as the first quarter of next year.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

Bank of England Hold Interest Rates

Thursday, December 4th, 2014

The Bank of England kept interest rates at a record low on Thursday as BoE officials to consider the risk of low levels of inflation and a weak outlook for the global economy with strong domestic recovery. BoE's Monetary Policy Committee as expected to keep interest rates at 0.5%, which has endured since almost 6 years ago, and did not give a statement. Recovery in the UK, led by the consumer sector appears to slow down entering 2015, but economists and financial markets expect no rate hikes until the end of next year.

Weak wage growth rate, inflation rate is below the target of 2% BoE and the poor outlook for the euro zone has convinced most of many of 9 members of the MPC to keep interest rates. However, the minutes of the last meeting showed that most of the seven members who chose to keep interest rates become increasingly cemasn regarding risks rise in inflationary pressures. English seems to be preparing for further fiscal tightening in the next few years are likely to suppress the BoE to keep monetary policy remains loose.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (France)

French PM: Private Firms Should Help Reduce Unemployment

Thursday, December 4th, 2014

Economic conditions in France has not improved until the end of 2014. Some time ago, the unemployment rate in the country the second largest economy of Europe was reported to increase to a level of 10.4%.

Reports third quarter less fun it makes the French government stifling. Prime Minister Michel Sapin denounced the ranks of his cabinet and ask businesses taking part in employment. "Once again, unemployment is soaring. If the country is willing to lower the unemployment rate, businesses must work harder," he told the TV station iTele.

In 2013, the government took the initiative to cut unemployment by opening several new jobs in agencies and state agencies. For 2014, the government encourages private companies to help create employment. The trick is to cut taxes for businesses so that funds from the incentives can be used for business expansion. Unfortunately, the private company is very slow in responding to the mandate of the government so that the number of unemployed is not abating. "We actually liked the business industry, because in this sector employment and welfare of the citizens created," sapin lid.

The weakening of the EIA report Reduce Oil Prices

Wednesday, December 3rd, 2014

Crude oil prices rising to a positive tertitori on Wednesday after the US Energy Information Administration report showed a decline in US oil stockpiles last week.

EIA reported a supply of 'black gold' fell by 3.7 million barrels in the week ended November 28. Analysts had forecast oil stocks will rise 1.1 million barrels. The EIA report also showed gasoline inventories rose 2.1 million barrels, while distillate fuel inventories increased 3 million barrels.

Currently the price of crude oil for January delivery contract offered in the range of $ 67.75 per barrel, after briefly touching a session low of $ 66.85 per barrel

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

UK Service Sector Growth Rapid Increase in November

Wednesday, December 3rd, 2014

UK service sector growth rate is accelerating more than expected last month, according to survey results on Wednesday, signaling the economy may be slowing less than expected following a strong growth during the year. Service sector PMI from Markit / CIPS rose to 58.6 in November after falling sharply to 56.2 in October, exceeding analyst expectations, amid reports the strengthening of the level of demand and the increasing number of new business. The rise in the PMI index is greatest in emergency over a year, and was far above the level of 50 for almost 2 years. Manufacturing sector survey results released on Monday also showed a rebound, despite Tuesday's construction PMI data was weaker than expected.

Markit said that overall, the survey showed the UK economy will grow by 0.6% in the last quarter of 2014, up from an earlier estimate of 0.5%. "The pace of growth in use within the service sector activity grew quickly relieve anxiety sharp slowdown in the economy," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit. The composite PMI services sector, manufacturing and construction rose to 57.8 after hitting a 17-month low at 56.4 in October.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Switzerland)

Swiss Economy Grows 0.6% in Third Quarter

Wednesday, December 3rd, 2014

Swiss economic growth rose higher than expected in the third quarter, exceeding its neighbor Germany thanks to household consumption and the public sector.

State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said that Switzerland's GDP rose by 0.6% in the three months to the end of September, after the revision to 0.3% in the second quarter. These results are higher than the 0.3% median estimate of 17 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

Switzerland has managed to maintain growth in the face of the sluggishness in the economics of the Euro zone, which is the destination for most of the value of their exports. European Central Bank Governing Council will meet tomorrow to discuss whether more stimulus is needed to revive the economy of the area.

"Swiss domestic economy continues to look good, with a very strong labor market," said Christian Lips, an economist at Norddeutsche Landesbank in Germany. "The growth of real wages should provide support for private consumption."

With the increasing political tensions with Russia, was further increased resistance in the German GDP, which is the largest trading partner of Switzerland, which only rose 0.1% in the third quarter. French GDP rose 0.3% and Italy persist in its longest recession.

Household consumption expenditure rose by 0.6% Switzerland in the third quarter, with construction investment rose 0.8% and government consumption rose 0.9%. The value of exports of goods rose 2.8%, with the strongest positive contribution "so far" comes from the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Greece)

Greeks Do not Want to Make Extra Savings Policy

Wednesday, December 3rd, 2014

Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras pointed out his government will not do the additional austerity measures to satisfy the demands of the troika. Samaras said that Athens has proved his country can meet budget targets. -Team Troika representing Greece's creditors that the IMF, the European Commission, and ECB- has called for additional austerity measures in order to ensure the adequacy of the government's financing needs.

Athens is still in negotiations with the troika to discuss the implementation of policy reforms become final bailout fund disbursement requirements. There are still differences between the two sides, especially regarding the need for additional austerity measures. Samaras stated troika analysis would lack funding for next year's Athens is wrong. On the other hand, the Troika wants to Athens perform additional savings of 2.5 billion euros for the government's 2015 budget

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

China's Non-Manufacturing Index Up in November

Wednesday, December 3rd, 2014

China's services sector index rose for the first time in three months as a form of aid from the industrial sector in sustaining economic growth in Asia's largest country.

National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on today reported non-manufacturing PMI index rose to 53.9 China in November from 53.8 in October. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

The report showed the service sector, which replaces the manufacturing and construction sectors as the biggest part of the economy since 2012 has helped China to face a decline in the property sector. People's Bank of China cut interest rates last month and yesterday, refrain from transferring funds to the financial system.

"It seems that the service sector will provide sustenance for China's growth prospects," said Dariusz Kowalczyk, an economist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong. "The rebound that occurs mostly on the technical rise of decline lately also reflect conditions in the real estate sector."

Post Touching Lowest Level 5 Years, Oil Up 4%

Tuesday, December 2nd, 2014

Crude oil futures rose more than 4% on Monday, rebounding from a five-year lows touched last week after OPEC decided to maintain production levels. Benchmark crude for January ended contract gained 4.3% and is above $ 69 per barrel. The percentage increase was the largest since August 2012, and to stop the decline in four successive weeks.

Crude oil dropped 10% on Friday, hitting its lowest level sehak September 2009 after the market reacted to OPEC's decision. On Thursday, OPEC decided to maintain production levels, diminish hope the market will cut production to raise the price of oil.

WTI crude oil closed higher on Monday trading be $ 69.31 per barrel, with daily highs $ 69.54, and the lowest was $ 63.72.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

S & P Doubt Japanese Fiscal Consolidation Plan

Tuesday, December 2nd, 2014

Standard & Poor's on Tuesday cast doubt on the ability of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to improve the finances of Japan less than two weeks before the election, after Moody's downgrade of the credit rating of Japan. ABe decision to postpone the sales tax increase for 18 months would probably help the economy in the short term, but there is still no guarantee taxes will go up because of the political dynamics may change after the election, according to Takahira Ogawa, director of rating at S & P. Abe is facing tough times as he held the elections on December 14, which will mennjadi voting that determines whether it is sufficient to raise the fundamental growth prospects.

"I may be wrong, but I am not optimistic look at the history of the existence of a detailed fiscal plan," said Ogawa. "Besides, if pemeirntah failed to implement his plan, it would not make sense." S & P has a rating of AA- against Japan, which ranked third below the top AAA rating. S & P rating has a negative outlook on Japan, which means there is a chance of a downgrade. When asked, Ogawa Japanese refused to mengkonfrimasi current rating for the possibility of a downgrade.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Manufacturer Inflation Rate Down 0.4% Euro Zone

Tuesday, December 2nd, 2014

Inflation rate in the euro zone fell manufacturers with the sharpest monthly rate in a year in October as the price of energy and non-durable goods such as food fell sharply, pressing the European Central Bank to do more to stimulate the economy. Inflation at factory gates in the euro zone fell as much as 0.4% from September, according to the European Union's statistics office, Eurostat on Tuesday. Economists forecast a drop of 0.3%.

Inflation figures were dragged down by a decline of 0.9% in energy prices and a decrease of 0.6% in non-durable goods prices, depressed by a drop in crude oil and commodity prices. The decline in producer inflation rate in October increased the number of euro zone problem with deflationary pressures. The inflation rate recorded an increase of only manufacturer in June and September this year. On an annual basis, prices fell as much as 1.3% in October, according market expectations and slightly lower than the rate of 1.4% decline in August and September. Only the price of capital and durable baradng the gainers. Annual inflation is the sharpest decline telrihat in Slovakia, Estonia, and the Netherlands.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

The expansion rate of the UK Construction Sector Slows

Tuesday, December 2nd, 2014

Aktvitas UK construction sector expanded at the slowest pace in more than a year last month, the level of new orders is at least survived rate since June 2013 and the level of optimism fades, according to a survey on Tuesday. Construction sector PMI from Markit / CIPS fell to 59.4 in November, the lowest level since October last year, down from 61.4 in October. While being lower than economists' expectations for results in 61.0, the index remains well above the 50 level that separates expansion and contraction, and also the long-term average at 54.5. However, optimism about the next year fell to its lowest level since October 2013.

"The economic data use within the overall negative cited as a key factor that suppresses strong demand patterns across the UK construction sector," said Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit. "However, a number of construction companies warned that the uncertainty ahead of the next election has been hit level of business confidence and affect the willingness of clients to run the new project."

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

UK Construction Sector Expansion Slows to 13-Month Low Level

Tuesday, December 2nd, 2014

UK construction activity expanded at the slowest pace in more than a year in the last month, as orders touching the lowest level since June 2013 and waning optimism about growth next year, according to the survey released Tuesday.

Report Markit / CIPS construction PMI fell to indicate 59.4 in November from 61.4 in October, which broke expectations fell to 61.0 from economists. However, the index is still perched comfortably above the long term average of 54.5.

"Economic news unfavorable overall has been a key factor that dampen demand patterns in the UK construction sector," said Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit. "While uncertainty ahead of elections next year also weighed on business confidence and affect the interest of the client to launch new projects."

The report also shows the most pronounced slowdown in growth occurred in the civil engineering sector, which relies heavily to the large infrastructure projects that are supported by the government.