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Oil Tap Level Low 5 Year

Monday, December 1st, 2014

Oil hit a 5-year low in early Asia, still burdened by the OPEC decision making investors worried about the abundant supplies of oil in the market. Last Thursday, OPEC decided to maintain production quota of 30 million barrels per day. OPEC's decision was followed by Russia, the world's major oil producers. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov pointed out Moscow will continue to maintain the amount of its oil output to 10 million barrels per day. Nymex oil is now traded $ 64.52; not so far from the low level of 5 years which touched $ 64.08 this morning.

Investors also looked cautious ahead of a series of publications global manufacturing data from morning till evening. China will release manufacturing data at 08.00 and will be followed by Japan at 8:35 o'clock pm. Euro-zone manufacturing data will be released later in the day and the UK are scheduled at 16:30 pm. Meanwhile, the US will release the ISM manufacturing data at 22.00 hours. If a series of the manufacturing data sinyalkan weak global economic activity then this can be undermined oil demand outlook.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (South Korea)

Won Drops to 15 Month Low Level In South Korea Exports Fall

Monday, December 1st, 2014

The won fell to its lowest level in 15 months on speculation that the central bank will intervene to oppose weakening the yen after a report showed the value of South Korea's exports unexpectedly contracted.

Government data today showed that shipments abroad fell by 1.9% in November from a year ago, compared with the median estimate for a 1.8% rise in a Bloomberg survey. Yen led weakening of Asian currencies in the current quarter after the Bank of Japan increased its monetary stimulus. The Japanese and Korean exporters compete in the international market for products such as cell phones and electronic devices.

Hong Seok Chan, an analyst at Daishin Economy Research Instutute in Seoul said that the weakening of the yen should weigh on the minds of policymakers. The weakening won associated with the movement of the yen.

Won slipped by 0.5% to 1,113.60 per dollar today. The currency fell as much as 1.1% earlier fell to 1,119.95, it is the weakest level since August 2013, and fell by 0.5% against the yen to 9.3826.

Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju Yeol on November 18, said that the government is aware of the impact on the economy of South Korea from a weaker yen and will act to maintain the stability of the exchange rate if necessary.

The value of imports shrank by 4% in November, sending the trade surplus fell to $ 5.6 billion, it is the level at least since September. The yen dropped by 7.8% in the current quarter, followed by a decline of 5.7% won.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

Japanese Automotive Sales Down 5 Months streak

Monday, December 1st, 2014

For the fifth month in a row, sales of Japanese automotive products in the domestic market declined. Auto sales for the month of November 2014 amounted to 239.207 vehicles, down 13.5% compared to October.

Meanwhile, if compared with November 2013, sales of automotive products (including mini cars with a capacity of 660 cc) fell 9%. Overall, total sales of 416.139 vehicles in November. The fact was revealed a while ago by the Japan Automobile Dealers Association and the Japan Light Motor Vehicle and Motorcycle Association.

The automotive sector is constrained by the applicable sales tax increase in April. Largest producer sales figures, Toyota Motor Corp., down 8.5% compared to the same period last year in the number 118.939 units. While sales of Honda Motor Co. decreased 30.4% to 51.475 units and Nissan Motor Co. down 14.0% to 46.076 units. These figures do not include the mini car products. Japan's auto industry still fail to host in their own country. Low interest expenditure citizens make the sales figures of four or more wheeled vehicles declined at the end of 2014.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Order Level Drops, Euro Zone Manufacturing Growth Slows

Monday, December 1st, 2014

The rate of growth in the euro zone's manufacturing sector slowed in November and the level of new orders fell to the fastest pace in 19 months despite the sharp price cuts, showing a poor outlook for the coming months, according to a survey on Monday. Also worried about the European Central Bank officials, who are trying to sustain growth rates and pushing up inflation, factory activity slowed in the third country euro zone's largest economy, namely Germany, France and Italy.

"The situation in the euro zone's manufacturing sector is worse than the previous estimate ... There is a risk of slowing the spread of the countries of the area," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit. Markit PMI of manufacturing sector to be at 50.1 in November, the lowest level since June 2013 and down from a previous estimate of 50.4 and 50.6 on in October.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

UK Manufacturing PMI Up Thin in November

Monday, December 1st, 2014

Activity in the UK manufacturing sector unexpectedly rapid bertambap in November as strong domestic demand offset a decline in the level of orders from the eurozone and developing countries, according to a survey on Monday. UK manufacturing sector PMI by Markit / CIPS rose to 53.5 from 53.3 in October, reaching its highest level in four months and was well above the 50 level that separates expansion and contraction. Economists expect the index weakened to 53.0. The growth rate in the number of new orders helped push the sector manufacturing jobs to the highest level in 4 months.

The survey meneguatkan signal that the slowdown in the economic recovery of the United Kingdom at the end of 2014 will likely not take place sharp. This will be good news for Finance Minister George Osborne will announce semiannual economic review on Wednesday. Osborne has warned that Britain is not immune to the slowdown in the global economy, and the survey results Monday showed the level of manufacturing exports continue to fall, although lower than in October, as the level of orders from the EU, developing countries, and Russia slowed. The level of orders from the eurozone also depressed by the weakening of the euro against sterling, according to Markit.

Oil Free Fall Over Absence Surprise From OPEC

Friday, November 28th, 2014

West Texas Intermediate oil to the largest first weekly decline in three years after OPEC did not take any action to reduce the abundance of global supply and curb the decline in oil prices has been encouraging the market to bear.

Futures contract fell as much as 8.1% in New York. OPEC still retain a collective target of their production by 30 million barrels per day, said Ali Al-Naimi, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister yesterday after the group meeting in Vienna. WTI oil may be down to around $ 60 per barrel in the next month, according to an analyst at the Energy Analytics Group.

Crude has fallen by 36% since hitting a peak in June as the US pumping at the fastest pace in more than three decades amid signs of weakening demand. OPEC does not send "any signal to everyone," and just want a fair price, OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri during a press conference. Brent oil yesterday fell by 6.7% to its lowest level in four years.

"Given the current supply capacity outside OPEC production cuts at this level is not the best interests of Saudi Arabia," said Ric Spooner, chief analyst at CMC Market in Sydney. "In the medium term, prices are likely to be seen in the range of $ 60, but you are likely to get a rebound in the short term when the price already looks quite low for the market."

WTI oil for January delivery fell as much as $ 5.94 into $ 67.75 in electronic trading on the session yesterday and is now moving in the range of $ 68.76 at 08:40 pm. Floor trading yesterday closed yesterday because of the Thanksgiving holiday in the transaction will be written off by today for settlement purposes. Prices have dropped by 10% this week, it was the largest since May 2011.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

House Price Growth Slows In UK In November

Friday, November 28th, 2014

The growth of house prices in the UK slowed in November as demand for properties continued to slow, reported by Nationwide Building Society.

The price increase at an annual rate eased from 8.5% to 9% in October, the agency said today in a statement on their website. These results are the smallest increase in 11 months. Prices rose by 0.3% from the previous bull, when it rose by 0.5%.

Strict mortgage rules introduced this year and fears on the affordability of purchasing power has been dampen activity in the housing sector after a recent surge in prices over the last year. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said this month that the index of demand from new buyers has dropped to a six-year terendag.

"Level of activity is still weak housing market in recent months," said Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide, said in a statement. "There is a ketidaknyambungan between slowdown in the housing market lately with broader economic indicators, which is relatively still pretty good."

According to Nationwide, the average home price in November amounted to 189.388 ($ 298,000).

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Energy Price Inflation erodes the weakening of the Euro Zone

Friday, November 28th, 2014

Inflation in the euro zone slowed to 0.3% in November from 0.4% in October, which reinforce expectations that the European Central Bank will soon launch monetary stimulus.

Eurostat report on Friday showed the 18-nation bloc CPI pressured by a sharp drop in energy prices. While the Core CPI, which does not include the component of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, 0.7% stable at speed. Euro zone inflation data was released a few days ahead of the ECB policy meeting, where most investors expect the central bank will announce additional measures to help revive the region's economy.

While separate data released simultaneously showed euro zone unemployment rate unchanged at 11.5% in October

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

Weidmann dismissed the appeal About Stimulus Plan Germany

Friday, November 28th, 2014

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann on Friday rejected the appeal of the German stimulus plan, saying that only structural reforms and improving the competitiveness that would push the euro zone economic recovery.

"This call for fiscal stimulus plan public in Germany in order to boost the Euro zone economy is wrong," Weidmann said in a speech at the economic summit held by the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung. "The level of investment which is above potential economic growth will not be possible to increase prosperity, it applies to public and private investment."

Weidmann's views are in line with the German government, where public investments are considered not to be able to solve the problem of growth in the Euro bloc, given the circumstances require more structural reforms. While the International Monetary Fund together with neighboring countries such as France and Italy have urged Germany to increase public investment. But Berlin is only willing to disburse additional funds worth € 10 billion ($ 12.5 billion) for public investment over three years starting in 2016, and hopes it will spur private investment worth € 50 billion.

"The market also has misjudged the central bank's monetary policy, which they consider to be able to solve the economic problems," added Weidmann

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Italy)

Unemployment Italy Record Record High

Friday, November 28th, 2014

The longest recession since the Second World War is experienced Italian makes businesses reluctant to hire workers, making Italy's unemployment rate rose to a record high. Istat reported the unemployment rate in October at 13.2%, up from 12.9% in September. Percentage in September was revised up from 12.6% the previous release, and economists expect the unemployment rate in October at 12.6%. The percentage of 13.2% in October was the highest since calculations began in 1977.

The unemployment rate for those aged 15 years to 24 years rose to 43.3% in October, from 42.7% the previous month. Prime Minister of Italy, Matteo Renzi, battling unions, and politicians from the opposition maupaun own party for paving the way for reforms that make the labor market more flexible. PM Renzi said the rise in the unemployment rate due to the increasing number of people are looking for work. Italian citizens who are not looking for work are not included in the calculation of Istat

Oil prices Collapses After OPEC Decision

Thursday, November 27th, 2014

OPEC meeting decided not to change the target level of production at the level of 30 million barrels per day with the argument that the OPEC producer needs to consider how prices fluctuate before changing the quota.

So far the price of US crude oil futures fell -2.84% to $ 71.51 per barrel, after reaching the highest point intraday at $ 73.56 and the lowest level daily touched $ 70.87 shortly after OPEC's decision was released, while Brent crude fell below $ 75 for the first time since in 2010.

The oil minister of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran agreed with the decision of the OPEC output, while the representative of Venezuela to the contrary. OPEC producer itself has a very minimal production costs, for example in Saudi Arabia takes only cost $ 4 per barrel, so the low price level is unlikely to have a significant impact on the fiscal position of government budgets.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

Profit Industry China Slows In October

Thursday, November 27th, 2014

China's industrial profits fell to its lowest level in two years, underlining the conditions in which it takes a more loose monetary policy in countries with the world's second largest economy is.

Total profit companies in China fell by 2.1% from a year ago in October, in the report by the Bureau of Statistics in Beijing today. That compared with a 0.4% rise in September and it was the biggest decline since Agusrts 2012, according to data reported previously.

People's Bank of China, which last week cut its benchmark interest rate, refrain from selling repurchase agreements in open market operations today for the first time since July, which triggers the possibility of easing monetary policy further. Mired by the downturn in the property sector, excess capacity and deflation in the price of the factory, China is now heading full-year economic expansion slowest since 1990.

The data was released on November 13 showed a slowdown in the economy more in October. Factory production rose by 7.7% from a year ago, it was the second weakest pace since 2009, while investment in fixed assets such as machinery to expand at least since 2001, from January to October. Retail sales also did not reach analysts' estimates last month.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Fall of the Euro Zone Inflation ECB Stimulus Opens Opportunities

Thursday, November 27th, 2014

Fall of consumer price inflation in Spain and Belgium, combined trend of decline in bank lending to the business sector across the Euro zone region increasingly putting pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to immediately implement aggressive stimulus measures.

Yet still there are some signals that slightly dampen anxiety Euro zone economic contraction, as the German unemployment rate is getting better as well as the recovery of the Euro zone business confidence level.

Inflation in the Euro zone as a whole had declined to 0.3% from 0.4% in October, which is also a decrease in inflation for 14 consecutive months is far below the ECB's target of 2%.

Conditions of very low inflation combined weak economic growth has urged the ECB to implement a program of bond purchases as a stimulus to reduce the risk of the fall of the Euro zone to the brink of deflation. Deflation is usually described as a period of continuous fall of consumer prices making it difficult for the debtor to pay the debt, especially for economies that have a large enough debt as Spain.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Italy)

Italian Business Confidence Up in November

Thursday, November 27th, 2014

Bureau of Statistics Instat report manufacturing business confidence levels rose in November, supported by expectations that will better orders from consumers and industrial goods. Until this month, kepercyaan level has risen two consecutive months.

Level of confidence of manufacturing businesses rose to 96.3 in November from October's 96.1. Figures in November, the highest level since July.

Manufacturers of consumer goods recorded the highest increase in the level of trust, followed by capital goods producers, while the confidence level of intermediate goods producers unchanged.

However, the level of confidence in its calculations incorporate composite indicator of a retailer, business services, and construction sectors turn into 87.7 from October's 89.1.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Spain)

Spain Consumer Price Down On November.

Thursday, November 27th, 2014

Spanish consumer prices fell more than economists forecast in November, which may increase the anxiety that deflation will still take place in the country with the fourth largest economy in the Euro zone.

Prices fell by 0.5% from a year ago, in the report by the National Statistics Institute in Madrid on this day. The decline in consumer prices, which is measured by the size of the EU, the larger-than-expected 0.3% that economists called for in the Bloomberg survey. Economic growth unchanged at 0.5% in the third quarter, INE said in a separate report, it confirms the estimates on 30 October.

The expected economic data tomorrow will show inflation in the 18 euro countries slowed to 0.3% in November, it is still the same as the level at least since 2009. The ECB policy makers are monitoring for signs of further stimulus that may be in need and have a committee of experts which will assess further steps to help improve the nearly stagnant growth which may increase the amount of loans for long-term and bond purchase program.

Oil Weakens In Asia session, Markets Wait for OPEC

Wednesday, November 26th, 2014

Oil futures fell in Asian trading session Wednesday after a sharp decline overnight and traders said that the considerable price volatility will continue to happen in the middle of the market looking forward to the latest news from the OPEC meeting in Vienna on Thursday tomorrow.

In Nymex WTI oil for January delivery was trading flat at around $ 74.10 per barrel on Globex electronic session at 14:37 pm. While it's only January Brent crude rose 6 cents to $ 78.39 a barrel.

WTI oil settled at its lowest level since 21 November 2010 in the previous trading session after a report showed that the major oil producers are being met as Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Mexico and Russia did not give the decision on supply reduction. The Wall Street Journal earlier reported that OPEC members appeared already getting close to reaching a deal with Saudi Arabia.

OPEC will meet on November 27 to decide whether they will lower the level of oil production has been a flood or not as the oil in the global market. Uncertainty and speculation on OPEC's decision has been made on investors wait and see the latest conditions.

"Obviously, it all depends on the outcome of an OPEC meeting that has the potential to change the view of the market, not only short-term but also long-term," said Michael Wittner, head analyst at Societe Generale.

At the end of trading Tuesday, the data from the American Petroleum Institute menjnukkan US oil reserves rose 2.8 million barrels for the week ending November 21. Energy Information Administration will publish the data of oil reserves on Wednesday night, and analysts expect there will be a decline of 100,000 barrels.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

Interest Rate Reduction Seen Will Spice China Property Market

Wednesday, November 26th, 2014

China's reduction of interest rates for the first time since the year 2012 is likely to stop the decline in property sales, reduce the inventory of unsold homes from developers who have been burdened by the price.

Central bank surprise drop in interest rates on November 21, has added as much as 12% discount on the mortgage bank is on offer for first time home buyers, according to a statement SouFun Holdings Ltd.

Sales and house prices in China have slipped this year after doing property restrictions for four years to reduce speculation. Sales declined by 10% in the first 10 months of this year from a year ago, and prices fell in all but 1 of the 70 cities monitored by the government in the past two months.

In the quotation from the statement Johnson Hu, who is a property analyst at CIMB Securities Research, he said that the reduction in interest rates is a powerful catalyst for China's property sector. The home buyer will probably see a signal will be stable property market, improving sentiment, melonjakkan home sales and lower the amount of inventory of unsold homes.

PBOC reducing the cost of long-term benchmark for more than five years, where it is a mortgage program offered by Chinese banks, by 40 basis points to 6:15%.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Italy)

Italian Consumer Confidence Back Descending

Wednesday, November 26th, 2014

Italian consumer confidence fell back in November, and touched its lowest level since February. Italian economy toward contraction in the third made setimen households declined and sentiment for current conditions worsened. Istat reported its consumer confidence index fell to 100.2 in November, from October amounted to 101.3.

Society's view of economic conditions and capacity savings in the future dims. The decline also occurred on the number of people who said it would buy durable goods, which gives an indication of the decline in consumer spending at the end of this year.

Istat also reported some positive things that society has expectations will not be an increase penganggura, as well as the current level of economic confidence and the steady rise in the future.

The Italian government expects the economy to return to contract this year and will grow moderately in the next year

News and Review of European Economic Zone

ECB's Constancio: QE Can Start Launched In Early 2015

Wednesday, November 26th, 2014

Vice President of the European Central Bank, Vitor Constancio, on Wednesday sent a strong signal to the market by saying that the central bank is ready to start buying government bonds at the beginning of next year, if the measures are more aggressive stimulus is needed.

In remarks prepared for a press conference in London, Constancio said that the ECB expects the measures agreed can bring balance back to the level at the beginning of 2012. That means that the European central bank's balance sheet will be around € 1 trillion ($ 1, 24 trillion), higher than current levels.

"Of course we still continue to monitor whether the rate of evolution in line with expectations. If appropriate, we will see better conditions during the first quarter of next year," said Constancio. "If not, we have to consider to start buying other assets, including government bonds in the secondary market, as well as greater security and more liquid."

Constancio unequivocal statement signaled the ECB is likely not going to start a broad-based asset purchases, known as QE, in a meeting next week. The ECB appears to be more likely to do so at the beginning of next year

News and Review of European Economic Zone (France)

French Consumer Confidence Index Up in November

Wednesday, November 26th, 2014

Consumer confidence in France in November rose, in the show by statistics agency Insee on Wednesday.

The monthly survey recorded a rise in consumer confidence to 87 in November from 85 in October. It was the highest reading since the survey in March, but still far below the long-term average at the 100 level.

Assessment of the consumers of their personal financial outlook rose as their perceptions of the ability to buy things began to improve. The survey also showed a strong rebound in the assessment of the French people to the quality of their lives in the last month.

Oil Stable Below $ 76 Per Barrel Before OPEC Meeting

Tuesday, November 25th, 2014

US crude oil futures moved steady below $ 76 a barrel earlier in the session Tuesday amid investors awaited the outcome of a meeting of OPEC members who may be cut production to provide support to prices continue to slide.

US crude for January delivery dropped 13 cents at $ 75.65 a barrel at 8:50 pm. The contract yesterday fell by 73 cents in a volatile session.

Some commodity fund managers believe that oil prices could slide to $ 60 a barrel if OPEC does not agree to a significant reduction in production when they meet in Vienna on 27 November.

Russia, who are in need of high oil prices, making the latest attempt to destabilize the OPEC meeting to indicate that Moscow may reduce output if OPEC does the same thing

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

Kuroda Affirm BoJ Will Reach Target Inflation

Tuesday, November 25th, 2014

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Haruhiko Kuroda confirmed the readiness of the central bank to ease monetary policy further if the emerging threats that hinder the achievement of the inflation target of 2%. "To achieve the target of price stability, the central bank has taken action and we will continue to take action," Kuroda said when giving a speech in front of a businessman in Nagoya.

"The central bank will assess the risks that arise on the economy and prices. If they judge necessary to achieve price stability, the central bank will not hesitate to adjust policy," said the BoJ's Kuroda. At the last meeting of October 31, the BoJ has surprised the market by announcing additional monetary stimulus by raising commitment monetary base increase of 65-75 trillion yen to 80 trillion yen per year. Minutes of the meeting were released this morning also showed a lot of senior Bank of Japan is concerned with the perception of the return of deflation in Japan.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

Carney statement undermines Sterling

Tuesday, November 25th, 2014

The pound sterling weakened against the dollar in European trading session today after Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, said the rate hike will be gradual and limited. Carney statement is dragging down yiled British bonds to the lowest level in six weeks.

Speaking in front of the British parliament, Carney said the global economic downturn in recent months, particularly the euro zone and Japan, as well as the geopolitical situation is still difficult to raise external risks to the outlook for the UK economy.

Meanwhile, the British Bankers Association reported mortgage lending in October fell to 37 076 of September amounted to 39 127. Total in October lower than economists forecast for 38,500, and provide acceleration signal slowing UK housing market.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

German GDP Grew 0.1% only in the Third Quarter

Tuesday, November 25th, 2014

Germany rely on domestic consumers to economic growth last quarter amid declining investment, it puts a strong risk in the country's recovery.

German GDP, which is the country with the largest economy in Europe, rose 0.1% in the three months to September, reported by the Federal Statistics Office on this day, it confirms an estimate on November 14. Private consumption rose by 0.7%, while capital investment shrank by 0.9%.

Euro zone economies are almost stagnant and geopolitical tensions with Russia has limited the willingness of German companies to invest, potentially damaging the prospects for growth both domestically and in the Euro area. The German government has resisted calls to increase their own spending that aims to balance the budget next year, and has been put off to put a fund of 10 billion euros to invest until 2016.

"Overview of domestic extremely strong, which shows the condition in which the domestic demand for a very solid, strong labor market, as well as the number of job vacancies is likely still going up," said Anatoli Annekov, senior analyst at the European economy at Societe Generale SA in London. "But there is a lot of uncertainty from the outside, especially from the demand in the euro area. It affects the investment in Germany, which is also a structural problem for the economy."

Total government expenditure rose by 0.6% in the last quarter, reported by the statistics bureau today. The value of exports rose 1.9% and imports rose 1.7%.

The number of private consumption rose 0.4% to GDP and government consumption rose 0.1%. Total net trade Rev up 0.2% of GDP. Reduced capital investment and inventories fell 0.2% to 0.5%.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

ECB Will Meet Limitation Law

Tuesday, November 25th, 2014

The ECB may face legal restrictions when taking additional measures to combat low inflation, according to Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann. The German central bank president called for the ECB to focus on efforts to create economic growth rather than obsessing run government bond buying program.

In a speech in Madrid, when asked on the possibility of the ECB buying government bonds Weidmann said, "From the focus with better purchase program focused on efforts to create economic growth." The ECB has cut interest rates to a record low and asset-backed buy-seurities as an attempt to prevent the euro zone to fall into the abyss of deflation. However, the ECB has so far not made a program of bond purchases, or better known as the policy of Quantitative Easing (QE).

Weidmann warned of trouble if the ECB take QE policy to cope with low inflation. "More trouble if taking other policies. This is because the policy has not been tested, are less clear, and will meet the legal limits on what the central bank can do," said Weidmaan which is also one of the ECB governing council member