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Oil Rebound, But Still Volatile Possible Price

Monday, December 15th, 2014

Crude oil traded choppy on Monday ahead of the data release this week from China and the US Federal Reserve meeting, as the market seems to look for a strong signal to the growth in the two countries with the largest economies in the world.

Oil prices dipped in early trade but the price managed to reduce losses and moved into positive territory as market participants consider the reduction of oil demand forecast on Friday by the International Energy Agency and report supply disruption in Libya.

January crude oil traded at around $ 58.47 a barrel, up by $ 0.66, or 1.1% in the Globex electronic session. Meanwhile in London January Brent oil rose by $ 1.04, or 1.7%, to $ 62.89 a barrel.

US, China and Europe is scheduled to release a major economic data on Tuesday. "Expectations for this month's PMI data in the estimate should lead to" oil "plunged further this week," said Daniel Ang, an analyst at Phillip Futures. He said that the strong factory data may be pushed oil to a level of $ 61.81 Nymex and Brent oil to $ 63.26 this week.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet this week, and their monetary policy statement will be announced on Wednesday. Analysts estimate that a rate hike is on track and any results that impact on the US dollar will also drive the price of oil.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

Economists Predict PBOC 2015 GDP Slows To 7.1

Monday, December 15th, 2014

China's economic growth will likely slow to 7.1% next year as the slowdown in the real estate sector investment continues. While the rate of growth may be slowing, the outlook for employment and inflation rate remained stable, and labor market conditions will not be a major concern, said Ma Jun, the chief economist at the research center of the People's Bank of China. Projected growth in comparison with the central bank's forecast for growth of 7.4% this year, the slowest pace since 1990. "The pressure dropped due to the slowdown in the real estate sector investment" that will cut a boost to the growth of the export sector, according to Ma.

The second largest economy in the world is showing signs of continued weakness last month to plant closures add to the low level of demand. The rate of growth in the export sector is expected to reach 6.9% next year, while consumer price inflation will reach 2.2%, according to Ma. Data last week showed exports rose as much as 4.7% in November from a year ago, while the level of imports fell unexpectedly amid weak demand levels.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

Japan Tankan Survey Thin Down in Fourth Quarter

Monday, December 15th, 2014

Sentiment large factories in Japan was slightly worse in 3 months hinga December but still robust corporate spending plans, according to a central bank survey showed uneven recovery triggered by stimulus policies Shinzo Abe. Factory sentiment index fell by 1 point from three months earlier to +12 in December, according to a quarterly survey "Tankan" of the Bank of Japan on Monday. This figure compared with estimates at +13.

The companies of taking a plan to increase the level of capital spending as much as 8.9% in the current fiscal year ending in March 2015, according to survey results. Tankan sentiment Idneks obtained by subtracting the number of respondents who said conditions deteriorated with the said conditions improved. A positive result means that the number of respondents are more optimistic than pessimistic.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

PBoC: China GDP Growth Rate Slows to 7.1% Potential

Monday, December 15th, 2014

Researchers and economists predict the central bank of China's economic growth rate may slow down in the coming year.

The pace of China's GDP is expected to slow to 7.1% in 2015 from 7.4% in the year 2014 with the fall of the domestic property sector weighed on overall economic activity. Fall of the property sector may impact on construction activity and the rate of demand on raw materials key materials such as steel and cement.

This condition is also referred to as a state of "new normal" to reflect the government's efforts to tackle pollution and energy savings in order to achieve a more sustainable economic expansion. In addition PBoC also see the risk of associated external timing reference interest rate hikes that the Federal Reserve can affect emerging economies.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Bundesbank Signaled Stimulus From ECB

Monday, December 15th, 2014

Bundesbank officials that the German central bank signaled that the ECB board member won unanimously to agree on the use of unconventional policies to address the risk of deflation.

Deflation risks arising from the sharp fall of oil prices that helped cut its forecast inflation of -0.4% for 2015. The decline in inflation also reflects the level of the more sluggish domestic demand.

As a result the ECB board members reach consensus due to the risk of euro zone economic activity weakened leaning, so it is necessary to change the rate and composition of the ECB bond buying program which will start at the beginning of next year.

Comments Bundesbank is significant because it was the last time the Bundesbank Jens Weidmann governor did not mention his approval with the view of other members of the ECB council to disburse the stimulus

Crude Oil Closed Under $ 60 / Barrel

Friday, December 12th, 2014

Crude oil prices slumped further on Thursday, with closed below $ 60 / barrel for the first time in more than 5 years, as the strengthening dollar makes commodities denominated in the US currency become more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Oil market sentiment is still burdened with the statement of Saudi Arabia's oil minister earlier today who question how the need to cut output. Signaling if OPEC's largest exporter prioritize maintaining market share, compared to dampen further price declines

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

BOJ Will Not Oil Prices Decline Response With Additional Stimulus

Friday, December 12th, 2014

Bank of Japan dismissed the notion that additional monetary stimulus is needed to prevent a decline in oil prices in recent months have dragged down the rate of inflation, according to a source close. To date, the BOJ officials considered that the decline in energy prices might reduce the rate of consumer inflation for the time being, but will stimulate the economy by fueling inflation, according to the source. BOJ still do not agree on how much capacity should be added to the central bank on its government bond purchase program, according to some sources. The decline in oil prices to a level of 5-year low this month reproduce barriers to Haruhiko Kuroda BOJ Governor and his colleagues as they try to achieve the inflation target of 2% next year. Discussions about wages between employers and labor leaders will be important to measure the rate of consumer inflation outlook, according to the source.

"The BOJ is not likely to add stimulus in January," said Hiroaki Muto, ekonm at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. "They would argue that oil prices will have a positive impact on the economy and their revisions to the outlook for inflation was only a little." BOJ officials want avoid the perception that the central bank will take steps when oil prices fell, the source said. the meeting on 31 October showed the BOJ's commitment to achieve their inflation targets, he said.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

Carney: Tax Reform Will Supporting Housing Sector Market

Friday, December 12th, 2014

Changes in procedures for house purchase tax in the UK, which was introduced last week, would provide little incentive for the UK housing market, said the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney on Friday. "I think, in terms of margins, I estimate these changes will prop up the housing market," Carney said in the Evening Standard. However, the change is likely to reduce the level of sales at the top of the market, he added.

Last week, finance minister George Osborne remodel UK property purchase tax, which resulted in cuts in the amount of tax paid by the majority of home buyers, but expensive property tax increase.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Eurozone Industrial Output Only Growing Thin

Friday, December 12th, 2014

The level of the euro zone industrial production barely grew in October, indicating a poor start in the fourth quarter. Industrial output in the euro zone rose as much as 0.1%, lower than the estimated increase of 0.2% by economists. Eurostat data also showed production levels rose as much as 0.7% compared to a year ago. The report according to a survey from Markit Economics, which showed the manufacturing sector weakened during 2014. Markit PMI manufacturing sector will be released this month, along with the PMI services sector, on 16 December.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has said the risk of a slowdown in the euro zone economy, and today's data can not relieve anxiety ECB officials about the economic outlook. The ECB is currently making a purchase covered bonds and asset-backed securities, and will consider a package of quantitative-easing policy at the next meeting in January. According to Eurostat, the decline in the level of industrial production in November, led by the energy sector fell 1.9%, and capital goods fell 0.2%. Eurostat also said the print decline in industrial output in France, Spain, and Italy, while Germany stagnant.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

UK Construction Sector Output Decline in October

Friday, December 12th, 2014

Output of England suffered a sharp decline in October, although as the growth in the previous month was revised up and give a boost edged up against the overall economic growth rate in the third quarter. Construction sector output fell as much as 2.2% in October after rising by the same amount in September, according to the Office for National Statistics on Friday. The figure at the annual rate slowed to 0.7%, its lowest level since May 2013, when the UK housing sector market launch strong recovery. Economists estimate the monthly growth rate of 0.7% and 1.3% annual.

In a quarterly basis, growth in construction output fell as much as 0.3%. However, there is a sharp upward revision to the previous estimate of the rate of growth in the construction industry. Output of the construction sector in the third quarter rose by 1.6%, compared to the estimate of 0.8%, which can encourage the growth rate of the UK economy in the third quarter of 0.1% to 0.8% if all components of GDP unchanged, said the ONS.

OIL Hit hard by the OPEC Projections

Thursday, December 11th, 2014

Oil prices hit a new low on Wednesday as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its estimate for 2015 demand, the oil minister of Saudi Arabia questioned the need for trimming production.

In its monthly report, OPEC predicts oil demand will fall to 28.9 million bpd next year, compared to 29.4 million bpd in 2014. While the three largest members of the cartel, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, also give discounts largest oil prices in the 6-year for Asian customers.

Sentiment was also depressed by the IEA report shows rise in US crude stocks that beat estimates last week.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

China PBoC Liquidity Injection Into Banking System

Thursday, December 11th, 2014

PBOC China's central bank took steps to boost liquidity in China's banking, by injecting funds amounting to 400 billion yuan, or about $ 65 billion to improve bank lending to support economic activity.

The PBoC liquidity injections made by China Development Bank, which membrikan short-term loans to other banks in the interbank market where banks often lend to each other.

The addition of liquidity is also done for the previous liquidity injections of 500 billion yuan in China's five major banks will mature in December. However PBoC managed to close the publication injection of funds, which began Wednesday for fear of wrong perceptions in response to injections of liquidity market this as a signal that is too strong to ease monetary policy aggressively.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

BoJ Raises Outlook Export Potential

Thursday, December 11th, 2014

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to raise the projected growth of domestic exports to the BOJ's monetary policy meeting next week.

Upgrade export outlook is based on the US economic recovery as well as other regional d have spurred demand products made in Japan. Throughout this year, the recovery of export market share retained by the global economic slowdown, including in Japan itself which decreased demand for the impact of the increase in sales tax effective in April.

If the level of foreign demand improved, the potential BoJ to maintain assessment of the Japanese economy as a whole is still in a moderate recovery path. In addition, the BoJ is also expected not to change the monetary policy on monetary meeting on 18-19 December to see the effect given to the economy after adding stimulus doubled on 31 October.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

Bank of England Will Be More Open About His policy

Thursday, December 11th, 2014

The Bank of England announced a major change in the way of providing information on monetary policy decisions, said it will release the minutes of discussion in conjunction with the announcement of the interest rate from August 2015. BoE today released the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee discussions, and the results of 9 voting members, with barely a pause for 2 weeks. BoE on Thursday also said it would start releasing transcripts policy discussions with pauses for 8 years.

The first meeting will be covered by the plan of the new transcript will be held in March 2015. Under recana this change, the MPC will hold a meeting for 3 days under the current system and deliberation on the first day will not are reported through the transcript. Other changes are, the BoE said the MPC members were asked to hold a meeting eight times a year, starting in 2016, of 12 times today. Such changes require the approval of the UK parliament. "Today I want to announce the most significant changes in how we present and explain our interest rate decision from the Monetary Policy Committee was formed in 1997," said Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. Carney has tried to make the central bank more transparent since taking office in mid-2013 past.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

ECB Coeure: TLTRO Loan Disbursement Under the Central Bank Estimates

Thursday, December 11th, 2014

Coeure central bank officials give positive comments after reports of liquidity injections second package of programs TLTRO successfully absorbed by the various banks in the euro zone amounted to € 129.8 billion.

This result is in the lower range of expectations of investors than the estimated 148.2 billion euros were absorbed, but the result is higher than the previous TLTRO package worth 82.6 billion euros.

TLTRO package is a program to provide loans from the central bank ECB for a period of 4 years with the hope that the loan can be disbursed by the Euro zone banks in the private sector.

Overall the results are likely to still sustain TLTRO expectations that the ECB will add another stimulus program in the next year with the effort to purchase government bonds worth 1 trillion euros for loan TLTRO 4-year tenor still channeled properly unlikely to trigger economic recovery as the ECB wanted .

Oil Trades Lower Level 5 Years

Wednesday, December 10th, 2014

Oil fell in early Asian session, tried to approach the low level of 5 years $ 62.24 was achieved yesterday. Investors are still worried by the prospect of excess supplies of oil demand outlook and fragility that make investors reluctant to push further oil recovery. Data US Petroleum Institute (API) which was released this morning showed US oil stocks increased by 4.4 million barrels for the week ended on 5th December. It would provide additional evidence on the abundance of supply is in the US, the world's largest oil consumer.

Japanese and Chinese data released this morning also confirms the weakness of the biggest economic conditions 3 and 2 in the world. Japan's manufacturing index fell to 8.1 for the last quarter of 2014 and this may still be ongoing sinyalkan Japanese economic recession in the last quarter of 2014. Inflation in China slowed to just recorded an increase of 1.4% in November. This is the lowest inflation rate in the last 5 years and can affirm the continuing threat of a slowing Chinese economy. It makes investors worried about the outlook for the world economy and oil demand outlook. Nymex oil is now traded $ 62.91; away from the daily high level of $ 63.41.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

Cut Opportunities Amid Slump China Inflation Rate

Wednesday, December 10th, 2014

Economists react positively after Chinese inflation data fell to 5 years, in which the fall of CPI and PPI inflation could potentially open up space for policy makers to accelerate reforms needed for the economy.

Figure CPI inflation data fell below expectations of 1.4% YoY in the rate of delays in the last 5 years, lower than the previous period at the level of 1.6%. While the PPI index has declined for 33 consecutive months with the rate of decline accelerated to -2.7% from -2.2% the previous month. Sharp decline in inflation indicates a weak domestic demand.

Looking ahead despite a rebound in food prices in mid 2015, but overall inflationary pressures are still inclined to decline in 2015. The positive sides of her on commodity prices are getting cheaper but the real economy in need of liquidity that need trimming the benchmark rate of the central bank of at least 50 basis point on the play rate, and 100 bps in the minimum reserve requirement.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

UK Trade Deficit Touch Low Level 7 Months

Wednesday, December 10th, 2014

UK trade deficit narrowed in October to its lowest level in seven years, helped by a decline in fuel imports and a slight increase in the level of exports, according to government data Wednesday. Office for National Statistics said the trade deficit narrowed slightly less than expected into 9620 billion pounds of 10 506 billion pounds in September, when the increase in the level of oil imports helped widen the deficit. Economists expect the trade gap amounted to 9.5 billion pounds in October.

Exports in October rose to 24 336 billion pounds, helped by sales of silver to India, while the level of imports fell nearly as much as 700 million pounds. The ONS said the decline in the level of oil imports are the main drivers of deficit reduction, the possibility of showing the recovery of production in the North Sea, where the output during the summer depressed by maintenance. England has relied on domestic demand to sustain economic recovery since the middle of last year. Sharp slowdown in the euro zone in recent months has added to the problem on the government's plan to focus more on the export economy.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

ECB Hansson: ECB QE Not Sure Will Decide in January

Wednesday, December 10th, 2014

Still too early to say whether the European Central Bank policy meeting in January would be too soon to decide whether the central bank will start buying government bonds, according to ECB officials, Ardo Hansson on Wednesday. "I think fluktiasi oil prices make the trend becomes unclear or understanding of current trends is more difficult," said Hansson told reporters in Tallinn. "The problem is inflation data was slightly weaker, but we still have to pay attention to a number of other factors," he added.

"We have to analyze the risk and impact of the different policy, we will review the medium-term inflation outlook repopulating and then decide. It is too early or not to decide in January, I think this time we still do not know." The ECB will hold a policy meeting on 22 January selanjutan later.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

BCC: Increase in Interest Rates Too Early Raises Risks Large

Wednesday, December 10th, 2014

The UK economy appears to still be on track to expand at a rapid pace in 2015, but to raise interest rates at this time would cause "substantial risk" to the recovery, according to the British Chambers of Commerce on Wednesday. BCC cut its forecast for economic growth in 2014 and next year, projecting a growth of 3.0% this year, 2.6% next year and 2.4% in 2016. In August, BCC estimates the rate of growth of 3.2% in 2014, 2.8% in 2015, and 2.5% in 2016.

While 2014 will mark the best economic growth in the UK since 2007, the BCC said next year economic and political risks are great, the euro zone economic slowdown and the elections in May. "Trimming on our growth projection is a warning signal that we still face a number of obstacles to get a balanced recovery and durable," said Director General of the BCC, John Longworth. "The economy is strong and balanced only be achieved if there is a commitment from all parties to plan long-term strategies, rather than short-term politics that has spread to the UK's growth prospects for too long."

Longworth also warned against rising interest rates from a record low of 0.5% is too early by the Bank of England. "Our dependence on consumer spending and housing loans means that the UK economy is sensitive to rising interest rates," he said. "The increase in interest rates in the near future could pose a major risk to the economy." BCC estimates that the increase in interest rates to 0.75% the first time will take place in the third quarter of next year, the interest rate reached 1.75% by the end of 2016. So far, only two of the nine members of the BoE's policy board voted to increase interest rates in a few months next.

Oil Rebounds In The Competition OPEC Countries

Tuesday, December 9th, 2014

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude rebounded after closing at its lowest level in more than 5 years in the middle of the competition between the largest countries members of OPEC, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Oil scored an increase of 0.5% on the New York session, restoring the previous decline of 1.3%. Iraq, the second largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, memagnkas Basra Light crude hers for January to the lowest level in 11 years seitdaknya yesterday. WTI oil price will reach an average of around level "$ 60 late" in the first half of next year, with hatga Brent crude on the level of "$ 70 early," said Amrita Sen, chief oil market analyst at consultancy Energy Aspects, at the conference Platts in Dubai.

"After a sharp decline yesterday, not surprising if oil prices rebound," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB in Oslo. "The market will remain volatile to find Goldilocks price that can suppress the growth rate of the US shale oil supply, stimulate the global economy and still allow OPEC members to survive."

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

BOJ Expected to Cut Inflation Target

Tuesday, December 9th, 2014

A slow lorises information circulating Bank of japan will lower inflation target is increasing, and will likely be in the next month. Inflation target of 2% is said to be too ambitious.

BOJ on 31 October surprised the market by increasing the monetary stimulus into a ¥ 80 trillion from ¥ 60 trillion - ¥ 70 trillion. Steps are taken to reduce the impact of falling oil prices and weak domestic demand, which can reduce inflation. However, oil prices continued to decline and has dropped 15% since the BOJ disburse additional stimulus.

Some officials worry the central bank said enegri and electricity cost reduction will lower the core inflation rate is based on the calculation of the BOJ to 0.5% from 1.4% in May. Japan's central bank will provide quarterly projections on 21 and January 22, 2015.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

UK Manufacturing Output Fall In October

Tuesday, December 9th, 2014

British manufacturing output unexpectedly declined for the first time in five months in October, highlighting the risks to the UK's economic recovery.

Output fell by 0.7% after rising 0.6% in September, in the report by the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey called for an increase of 0.2%.

Bank of Englang Mark Carney has left its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5% last week as officials focus on the threat of the British growth slump in Europe, which is the UK's largest trading partner.

Manufacturing, which represents 10.1% of the economy, only the industrial sector recorded a decrease in the monthly rate of output. The mining sector rose 2%, crude oil and gas rose 2.8%, electricity generation rose 0.6% and water supply rose 0.7%.

Eight of the 13 categories in manufacturing posted a decline in October, led by a decline of 4.5% in the output of computer, electronic and optical equipment. Pharmaceutical and chemical production also declined.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (France)

French Trade Deficit Down Due to Skyrocketing Export Value

Tuesday, December 9th, 2014

French Customs Agency on Tuesday reported that the French trade deficit fell slightly in October from September due to strong export value of aircraft and weapons.

The trade deficit in the country with the second largest economy in the euro zone fell to 4.65 billion euros ($ 5.67 billion) in October from 4.72 billion euros in September.

Export boosted by sales of Airbus aircraft valued at 2:49 billion euros compared with 1.95 billion euros in September.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

German Exports Decline in October

Tuesday, December 9th, 2014

German Bureau of Statistics reported exports of Germany recorded a decline in the early fourth quarter of this year. Level after adjustment exports fell 0.5% in October. Imports fell by 3.1% deeper, making the adjusted trade surplus to € 20.6 billion euros, above economists' forecasts of € 19 billion and € 18.6 billion the previous month.

The value of German exports are not diseuaikan new record high of € 103.9 billion, higher than September lbih of € 102.5 billion. The data also showed German exports to the euro zone countries rose 1.9%, to countries outside the euro zone, but still within the European Union rose 7.6%, and to countries outside the EU grew by 6.3%.