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Strengthening Oil Maybe Only While

Friday, January 23, 2015

The rise in oil prices after the death of the King of Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah, is predicted to be temporary as the still abundant supply of crude oil in the market. Saudi Arabia, the largest producer of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), leading the organization strategy of production quotas in the fall 58% condition crude oil prices since the middle of last year. Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi reiterated the need to maintain market share with declining global demand and the highest US oil production since 1983.

"Obviously the death of the King of Saudi Arabia significant but not fundamentally change anything. Saudi Arabia tried to maintain its market share and has asserted that," said Stephen Schork, president of Schork Group in Pennsylvania. "Oil supplies are still abundant in the global market."

As of this afternoon, oil traded at $ 47.25 per barrel, with daily highs $ 47.72 and $ 46.44 daily lows

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

Japanese Manufacturing Sector Starting 2015 With Strong

Friday, January 23, 2015

Japanese manufacturing sector start this new year with a strong line with the increase in the level of domestic and foreign orders, according to a survey on Friday, indicating the economy is starting to take on a decrease in the level of consumer spending last year that triggered the recession. PMI manufacturing sector from Markit / JMMA rose to 52.1 in January from 52.0 in December. Index held above 50 for the 8th month in a row. The output component of the PMI index fell to 52.3 from 52.5 in the previous month. The new orders index rose 53.1 menajdi of 52.3 in December. The index for new export orders also rose at a faster rate, being 51.5 from 51.3 in the previous month. PMI final Markit / JMMA for January will be released on 2 February.

Japan's economy is expected to grow at an annual rate of 3.2% sebeasr the fourth quarter of last year and 2.1% in the quarter, rebounding from a mild recession after sales tax increase in April last year. Economists predict growth in consumer spending, exports and capital spending will drive growth this year. The decline in oil prices could help lower the cost of fuel to Japan and provide a further boost to the economy. The manufacturing sector also hire more employees during the fourth month in a row, according to the PMI survey.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (South Korea)

South Korea's economy slows the rate at End of Year 2014

Friday, January 23, 2015

South Korea's economy slowed in the final quarter of last year, restrained the decline in investment in construction and government spending. The Bank of Korea today reported gross domestic product grew 0.4% in the fourth quarter of last year, lower than the previous period 0.9%. Then for an annualized basis, the economy growing 2.7% from the previous year, lower than expected 2.8% rise.

But the central bank remains optimistic about the economy of the country's 4th largest economy of Asia. BOK predicts quarter growth will continue to accelerate to around 1% in 2015. On the other hand, the administration of President Park Geun Hye 375.4 trillion won budget plan for this year as well as changes in the labor market and industry to spur growth.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

UK Retail Sales December Better Of Estimates

Friday, January 23, 2015

Christmas Day in the UK to benefit retailers in late 2014, Office for National Statistics reported retail sales rose in December, breaking the estimated decline by economists. Retail sales in 2014 to be the best in the last decade.

The ONS said retail sales in December rose 0.4% from the previous month, while economists had forecast a decline of 0.6%. Throughout 2014 reported retail sales rose 3.8% from 2013.

The slump in oil prices create inflation British decline and raise the living standards of Britons after the last five years the increase in inflation is always higher than the average increase in salary. The decline in oil prices also make lower cost so as to make the British retailer providing high discounts. ONS reported an average price of goods in the UK fell 2.2% in December from the same period in 2013, becoming the largest decline in 11 years.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

BoE's Miles: No Urgency To Raise Interest Rates in the UK

Friday, January 23, 2015

A slowdown in inflation in the UK does not mean the Bank of England needs to launch a new stimulus program, but it will give more room for the central bank to hold interest rates low, according to a central bank policy makers on Thursday.

David Miles, a member of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee, said in a speech at the University of Edinburgh that the slowdown in inflation is mainly caused by a decrease in the price of oil and food. It was definitely not a sign that Britain is heading for "deflationary trap" dangerous, where the continuous decline in prices will weigh on growth and complicate companies and households pay off their debts. British annual inflation slowed to 0.5% recorded in December, with policy makers expect prices to continue to decline to below zero in the coming months before returning to accelerate at the end of the year.

Nevertheless, he assured if the UK economy is still far from deflation risks that threaten the euro zone. In contrast, the decline in inflation is expected to help spur growth in the UK as consumers take advantage of lower prices. Unlike the euro zone, the UK economy has shown solid growth in the last year and is expected to expand 2.7% in 2015, according to the latest projections of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Oil Hold Under $ 48

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Oil trading remained below $ 48 a barrel, before the oil supply report by the Energy Petroleum Administration (EIA) and the press conference of the European Central Bank (ECB) later that night. Bloomberg News survey released Thursday predicted US oil supplies, the world's largest oil consumer, will probably grow 2.7 million barrels last week.

"According to the current consensus view, there are about 2 million barrels per day of oil supply berleebih," said Ric Spooner, analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. "If there is already a real production cuts, we will see a direct response to the futures price, if the reduction is significant."

As of this afternoon with a limited range of oil traded at $ 47.48 per barrel price, the daily low price 47.21 a barrel and the highest price of $ 47.67 per barrel daily.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Draghi ECB Confirm QE Stimulus much as 60 billion euros

Thursday, January 22, 2015

European Central Bank announced that its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.05%, the deposit rate at the level of -0.20%.

In addition, in his press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi announced a large-scale asset purchase program, known as quantitative easing (QE) to prop up the euro zone economic recovery is worth 60 billion euros investors exceeded estimates by 50 billion euros.

Euro currency to fluctuate against the dollar dropped about 100 points to a low level of 1.1513 after the rate decision and press conference that the ECB is appropriate estimates. However, the amount of QE stimulus disbursed amounted to 60 billion euros in the form of bond purchases that will run until September 2016, the overall stimulus ECB will reach 1:08 trillion euros.

Governor of Central Bank of Greece, Spain and Estonia do not make the voting QE at the ECB meeting today, while 19 other central bankers and voting.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Italy)

Italian Industrial Orders Down in November

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Italian industrial orders fell in November due to weak domestic demand, especially the transport sector. Istat reported industrial orders fell 1.1% in November from October which recorded an increase of 0.1%. Reported domestic orders fell 3.9%, primarily transportation including cars, trains, and ships. While foreign orders fell 2.9%.

When compared to the previous year, without seasonal adjustment, orders fell 4.1%.

Istat also reported industry sales fell 0.6% in November, with domestic sales recorded a decline of 1.2%. From the previous year sales posted a decline of 1.6%, led by declines in the domestic market by 2.8%

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Spain)

Spain Unemployment Rate Unchanged from Q4

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Bureau of Statistics of Spain (INE) Thursday reported a fourth-quarter unemployment rate of 23.7%, unchanged from the previous quarter. This stagnation occurs because a significant increase in new jobs has not offset the increase in the number of job seekers.

INE describes the number of unemployed in the country's 4th largest economy-euro area have increased by 30,100 people in the last three months of 2014 compared to the previous quarter, to a total of 5.46 million people. Nevertheless, the amount of labor in the 4th quarter increased by 65,100 people, the first increase of the entire 4th quarter since 2006. The unemployment rate of 23.7% is the highest level than other developed countries the unemployment rate. But there is a consistent decline since mid 2013. The Spanish Finance Minister Luis de Guindos, Spain's economy grew asserted by an annual pace of more than 2%

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (South Korea)

BOK Still Review Considerations Cuts Interest Rate

Thursday, January 22, 2015

South Korea's central bank is still reviewing the effects of interest rate cuts twice last year and chose to be careful decisions related to the need for monetary easing. Governor of the Bank of Korea, Lee Ju-Yeol, called on the central bank's decision to cut economic growth in 2015 to 3.4% should not be considered as a pessimistic forecast, because these projections are still in line with the country's growth potential ginseng. Lee added that the growth forecast cut decision one of them because of the failure of government infrastructure investment deficit impact of income taxes.

Some analysts argue for a cut of 25 basis points in a few months to encourage domestic consumption and ease fears of deflation in connection with the low price of oil

Oil Stronger Although Still Shadowed Supply Outlook

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Oil verdant Wednesday but analysts still maintain a pessimistic outlook for the next six months because of the global oil supply is still excessive. While BNP Paribas predict a rise in oil prices will be hampered strengthening US dollar as monetary tightening, as well as Europe and Japan who are in the recovery phase.

Yesterday the price of oil fell by almost 5% after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for the global economy in 2015 and Iran signaled oil prices will reach $ 25 per barrel.

Oil traded higher this afternoon is limited to the range of $ 46.89 per barrel, with daily lows $ 46.58 per barrel and daily highs $ 46.96 per barrel.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

BoJ Maintaining Monetary Policy

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

As predicted, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintain commitment monetary base increase of ¥ 80 trillion per year at a meeting in January. BoJ seem to resist the urge to take further drastic action after shocking financial markets in October to increase the amount of the provision of the stimulus.

As a result of the decline in world oil prices, the BOJ lowered outlook for inflation from 1.7% to 1.0% for 2015. The BoJ also cut its outlook for Japan's economic growth of + 0.5% to -0.5% for 2015. However, the BoJ still maintain its economic assessment uttered while the economy recovered moderately. Investors are now looking forward to the BoJ's press konverensi Kuroda to seek further instructions on the next BoJ monetary policy outlook.

Yen maintaining and strengthening the Nikkei remained in negative territory as investors' lack of widespread disappointment BoJ action to prevent the return of the threat of deflation in Japan and help the Japanese economy are now slumped in the recession. As a symbolic move, the BoJ extended the loan program specifically for one more year and increase the capacity of program funds from ¥ 7 trillion to ¥ 10 trillion

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Earning reports Supports Strengthening FTSE

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

UK stock market rose five-day losing streak, the FTSE 100 index touched its highest level in six weeks is supported by several companies reported earnings.

Pearson Plc. rose 2.8% after it reported a full-year earnings higher than analysts expected. Dixons Plc rose 1.7% after earnings projections above analysts' estimates. ARM Holdings Plc and BAE Systems Plc each gained 1% after several brokers provide recommendations to buy their shares.

The FTSE 100 index rose 0.6% to 6659.96. While the range of 6593.5 FTSE Futures traded at 20:12 pm, with daily lows and highs 6580.5 6611.5

FTSE has risen 4.3% since the Swiss National Bank removes limits franc exchange rate against the euro on January 15, making speculation the European Central Bank will launch a bond-buying program is increasing. ECB monetary policy meeting held on Thursday, tomorrow is expected to announce a program of bond purchases worth € 550 billion ($ 636 billion).

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

Low Inflation causes the MPC Absolute Hold Interest Rates

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Two of the members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England who previously chose to raise interest rates, re-elect to keep interest rates on monetary development policy meeting January 8.

Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty are two of the nine members of the MPC that from August to December chose to raise interest rates in each monetary policy meeting the BOE. Low inflation risk down to below 0% is said to be the cause of their back opted to keep interest rates. Absolute decision to keep interest rates are reinforcing speculation the BOE will not raise interest rates until next year.

Continue the fall in crude oil prices also dragged British inflation, the Office for National Statistics reported inflation of 0.5% in December, and be the lowest in the last decade. Nine members of the BOE MPC led by Governor Mark Carney expected inflation to drop to 0% in the first quarter of this year, and "there is a possibility that the same" inflation will be below 0%. Monetary policy "can and will be adjusted" if necessary to achieve the inflation target of 2.0%.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

Translucent British Unemployment Rate Down 6%

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

UK labor market continues to show strong gains in November, raising the living standards of low inflation and the unemployment rate fell to below 6% for the first time in 6 years. Perpekan average salary, excluding bonuses, rose 1.8% in the three months ended November.

The decline in crude oil prices dragged UK inflation to 0.5% in December, the lowest in the last decade. According to the Office for National Statistics, salary increases have been higher than inflation in three consecutive months up to November, so as to raise the living standards of citizens of the United Kingdom.

ONS reported the number of jobless claims in December fell as much as 29,700 claims, a better-than-expected 24,200 claims. The unemployment rate in November fell to 5.8% from 6.0% and better-than-expected 5.9%

China's GDP Data To Trade Oil Press

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

The weakened oil market Tuesday after China's economy growth by 2014 are reported is lower than the Government's target of annual growth and achieve the lowest in 24 years. This sentiment of energy markets mempersuram has slumped with the slowing demand and supply still excess.

China's National Bureau of statistics reported the country's second-largest economy growth reached 7.4% in the past year, lower than the target of 7.5%. Growth in the fourth quarter was the lowest in level in nearly six years, walalu a bit better than market expectations of 7.3%.

According to the credit rating agency, Moody's, this low oil prices could negatively impact on the company's exploration and production in South East Asia.

Towards the middle of the day, the WTI crude oil is traded in the range of $ 47.82 a barrel, the lowest level with a daily $ 47.60 and highest level of daily $ 48.09

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

China's GDP Surpasses Estimates, Remain Close To The Target

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

China's economic growth rate exceeded the estimated economic annual growth rate, helping to keep it close to the target of the Government. Gross domestic product rose by 7.3% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, according to the Bureau of statistics in Beijing, exceeding Analyst estimates for a rise of 7.2%. The economy increased by 7.4% in 2014, the slowest rate since 1990. The Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time in two years in November and the Government speed up the approval of infrastructure projects to boost the economy drowned out by anjloknya the property sector and excess capacity. High external demand triggered by the recovery in the US has helped prop up the growth rate over the economic transition from an investment-led expansion.

"Another prominent Factor to sustain growth is the service sector," said Zhou Hao, Economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., in Shanghai. "China will need 2 or 3 years to change from an economy led by the property sector to the service sector, manufacturing and the high level of technology." The level of industrial production rose as much as 7.9% in December from a year ago, compared with estimated increase was 7.4% and 7.2% in November. Retail sales are up as much as 11.9% from a year earlier, compared with the estimate of 11.7%.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

The level of Investor confidence in Germany Rose in January

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Germany investor confidence level rose to the highest level in 11 months ahead of monetary policy meetings Eruopean Central Bank on Thursday. ZEW expectations index reported investors and analysts that the economic memprediski Germany six months ahead rose to 48,4 in January, from 34.9 in December, and much higher than the forecast of economists of 40.1.

President of the ZEW, Clemens Fuest, said stock market upheavals, the election and the decision, Switzerland Greece National Bank removes the limit on the exchange rate of the franc against the euro look not mempenagruhi economic expectations for Germany. Fuest adding instead a decrease oil prices and depreciation of the value of the euro that tuka contributed to the rise in sentiment.

Index of sentiment for current economic conditions in Germany rose to 22.4 bolted from December of 10.0, and above the estimate of economists of 15.0.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Europe Does Not Plan To Loosen Sanctions Russia

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

The European Union reiterates no plans to loosen the sanctions that had been given to Russia in the near future. The release of the report that the Central European review of ways to improve relations with Moscow have raised the question of how long such blocks can unite to confront the aggressive attitude of Russia towards Ukraine.

Some European Union members are more friendly with Russia saw a sharp fall in world oil prices has hit Russia's economy enough so that it can make room for easing sanctions in an effort to improve the diplomacy. However, a meeting of European Foreign Ministers yesterday insisted would only loosen sanctions if Russia had an agreement Minsk approved September ago after ending the conflict in Ukraine.

"There is no normalization of relations. The situation now is worse than the previous couple of weeks, "said Chief Eu Foreign Minister Frederic Mogherini. Germany's Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier point out efforts to restore the ceasefire quite disappointing. The conflict in the eastern region of Ukraine quite increased in the last few days where battles are increasingly common between government troops and separatists in Ukraine around the city of Donetsk, one of the pro-separatist base in Russia

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Merkel: QE Is Not A Substitute For Economic Reform Of The Eurozone

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Chancellor of Germany public intervention in the debate Monday, warned that the printing of money by the European Central Bank is not a substitute for reform of the economy in the Euro zone. Speaking in the presence of listeners including Mario Draghi, President of the ECB Merkel stated the ECB buying Government bonds with new money should not be an excuse to ignore the reforms on the labor market and other markets that had to be done.

"People can quickly convinced one (policy) can replace the other," stated Merkel in Germany share trading, Deutsche Boerse. "It is clearly not possible. The pressure to improve competition in Europe must be maintained, otherwise, and I really, no one can help us. "

Merkel was careful not to directly commenting on the decision of the ECB quantitative easing program, along with the great expectations the market ahead of his announcement Thursday of this week

Early Week, Oil Back Slips

Monday, January 19th, 2015

After noting the first reinforcement in the last three weeks, the oil back down at the beginning of this week, after Iraq announced record high oil production, and ahead of the release of China's gross domestic product data which is the second largest oil consumer in the world. WTI crude oil traded at around $ 48.40 a barrel at 20:18 pm. Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdel Mehdi, said Iraqi produce 4 million barrels of crude oil per day in December.

China's GDP in the fourth quarter is expected to grow 7.2% from the previous year, lower than the third quarter of 7.3%. Percentage growth will be the lowest since 1990. The report is likely to worsen sentiment towards oil that has been in decline since June.

Oil last week managed to rebound after the International Energy Agency said oil prices are likely to fall further before recovering to rise, EIA also saw a decline in oil prices will lead to a reduction in production in several countries outside the OPEC oil producers.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (South Korea)

The Korean government Maintaining Growth Projections

Monday, January 19th, 2015

South Korea's Ministry of Finance plans to maintain its growth forecast for this year, appear to be different with the Bank of Korea's projection, the central bank's Asia's fourth largest economy is.

The government maintains projected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in December will rise 3.8% in 2015. Meanwhile, the day before the Bank of Korea cut its estimate to 3.4%. Deputy Minister of Finance, Hyung Joo Hwan, said this outlook differences reflect differences in opinion on the likely impact of government policies.

"There is a difference in how these variables will affect consumption, investment, and exports," said Joo respond to the relief efforts of the administration of President Park Geun Hye, including the fiscal stimulus and easing lending rules. Joo also add "archetype" of the economy this year is the repair and restoration.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Hollande: ECB QE Will Launch This Week

Monday, January 19th, 2015

French President Francois Hollande, said the European Central Bank will be announcing plans to buy government bonds this week. The statement further increased speculation the ECB will follow other major central banks in implementing the program commonly called quantitaive easing.

"On Thursday, the ECB will take a decision to buy government bonds, which will provide significant liquidity to the European economy, and will be beneficial for economic growth" Hollande said.

Many economists expect the ECB will announce a program of bond purchases by € 550 billion ($ 639 billion). Speculation ECB will launch a bond purchase program continued to increase after the after the European Court of Justice supports the purchase of government bonds by the European Central Bank through the Outright Monetary Transaction (OMT), and the Swiss National Bank measures that eliminate boundaries franc exchange rate against the euro and lower interest rates alleged in anticipation of ECB bond buying program

News and Review of European Economic Zone

ECB Only Have Few Options Overcome Deflation Risk of Prolonged

Monday, January 19th, 2015

ECB advisory board member Ewald Nowotny stated that the ECB had little option to overcome a prolonged period of deflation that threatens the euro zone.

In the near future, the ECB will face a crucial test to execute the previous statement, "will do everything possible" to maintain the stability of the Euro when it will decide the bond-buying program to overcome deflation and sustain the economic recovery. When asked if the central bank began to run out of ammunition and what steps can still be taken by the ECB, Nowotny just reply with "likely quite limited".

Inflation in the Euro zone are reported still well below the ECB's medium-term target of below 2 percent level, after getting a negative inflation rate in December, the ECB's Nowotny expects inflation in the month of January is still negative, but the overall inflation rate for 2015 is expected still in positive territory .

Prolonged deflation experienced by Japan, which for two decades of low economic growth, low inflation and low interest rates, or can also be referred to as stagflation would be very bad if the same thing is experienced by the Euro zone. The most negative effects will appear on the labor market, and also dangerous for the political and social situation of the Euro zone.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

CBI: UK Financial Sector Gains in Fourth Quarter

Monday, January 19th, 2015

UK financial sector reported a sharp rise in the volume of business in nearly 20 years in the last quarter of last year, according to the Confederation of British Industry on Monday. CBI said its index of business volume of his quarterly financial services rose to +57 in December from +49 in September and reached its highest level since December 1996. "The increase in the growth of financial services companies continued to strengthen, with optimism as a whole, the volume of business, and increased profits, "said Rain Newton-Smith, director of the CBI economy. The data are in contrast with the official data, which menunukkan output of financial services in the three months to October fell by about 3.2% from last sethaun.

Separate projections by accountants Ernst & Young, which was also released Monday, shows that the drop in oil prices will help the UK economy as a whole to grow as much as 2.9% this year, 0.5% higher than the previous forecast in October. "While the drop in oil prices did not change the outlook pertumbuan, but it happened right as the recovery is losing momentum and will sustain the growth of riding for one or two years ahead," said Peter Spencer, advisor at Ernst & Young.