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Oil Gains On Speculation Output Interference Threat From Libya

Monday, December 29th, 2014

Oil rose for the first time in three days as an explosion in the largest oil refineries Libya which has increased speculation that the output of the owner of the largest oil reserves in Africa will be disrupted.

Brent oil futures rose as much as 1.6% in London, after last week slipped by 3.1%. South wind threatens to expand the blaze that was in the tanks at the port of Es Sider Libya, said Ali al-Hasy, a spokesman for the Petroleum Facilities Guard. The fire had threatened three of five facilities, which are capable of storing 6.2 million barrels of oil, or four times the national daily output capacity.

The price of oil to the largest annual decline since 2008 as the members of OPEC rejected calls to reduce supply to maintain market share and the US pumping at the highest rate in over three decades dati. Libyan production of 580,000 barrels per day in November, down from 1:59 million barrels at the end of 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

"Clearly, the potential of a supply disruption can be constructive for oil," said Michael McCarthy, chief analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney today. "But as we all know about this during the past week, the market seems to ignore it. So I think this is probably the background that supports the price at the moment, and I think that this is not the primary driver in oil prices.

February Brent crude oil rose by 95 cents to $ 60.40 this morning in London, and is currently engaged in a range of $ 59.85. Meanwhile, the WTI oil rose by 73 cents, or 1.2%, to $ 55.46 a barrel on the Nymex.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

China Cuts Growth Target Trade Value for 2015

Monday, December 29th, 2014

The Chinese government cut its international trade value growth target to 6% for 2015. The growth ratio is smaller than the target set for this year, which is at 7.5%.

According to media reports the China Daily, Minister of Commerce Gao Hucheng express the target trimming taken with special consideration. For this year alone, China's trade sector is likely to fail to meet the target growth rate. Considering the last 11 months alone, the total value of trade only up 3.5% compared to last year (US dollar denominated). It clearly shows that the trade sector failed to keep pace with China's economic growth reached 7.4% per year until the third quarter of 2014.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

Japanese Fighting Out Of Recession In The Middle Of The decline in production

Monday, December 29th, 2014

Japanese inflation slowed for a fourth month in November, and industrial production and retail sales unexpectedly slumped back, it showed for further weakening in the economy Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who is trying to emerge from recession.

Output fell by 0.6% in November from a month ago, the trade minister said on Friday, it was much lower than the median estimate for a 0.8% rise in a Bloomberg News survey. Retail sales slipped 0.3%, while consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 2.7% from a year ago. Real wages fell to the lowest level since 2009.

With only slight signs of rebound of domestic demand, countries with the world's third largest economy may be able to rely on exports to avoid three consecutive quarterly contraction in the final quarter of this year. Today's report further provide additional pressure to Abe, the government will tomorrow launch the stimulus package, and the promise for a change in the structural growth after he won re-election this month.

"Companies should see a recovery in domestic consumption before increasing production," said Minoru Nogimori, an economist at Nomura Holdings Inc., which recorded every rebound in the economy in the fourth quarter "will still be far from strong." With oil prices will weigh on inflation, the BOJ is likely to increase the stimulus back, possibly in October, he added.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

European Stocks Open Week with Optimistic

Monday, December 29th, 2014

European stock markets today opened at a higher level as the optimism of market participants on the performance of the major stock indexes United States. Investors blue continent believes Wall Street will continue to rise over the weekend.

The positive sentiment from New York has been absorbed by Asian market participants at the beginning of the week. Some of the major Asian indices rose except the Nikkei, which was hit by the news about the outbreak of Ebola oblique suffered citizens. The spotlight focused on the stock exchange-traded AirAsia Malaysia. AirAsia had declined about 9% to its lowest position in the 4 last week on news of the loss of an aircraft from Surabaya to Singapore.

Back to Europe, the Euro exchange rate has weakened to its lowest position in the last 28 months. Investors are not interested in the Euro-based financial assets for fear of election results in the Greek political instability will affect the region. If the Prime Minister Antonis Samaras failed to reap the 180 votes needed to win the election, then there will be a subsequent election. This means that political uncertainty will still overshadow Athens in the near future, in line with the ongoing economic downturn.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

EURUSD rebound Limited Voting tuned Greece

Monday, December 29th, 2014

Pairing EURUSD bounced from the low-level 2-year but is still limited due to anxiety Greek elections in recent weeks.

Trading activity is also expected to still not normal before the New Year holiday which most investors had to liquidate his position before the end of the year.

The situation in Greece, Prime Minister Antonis Samaras will be faced with a parliamentary vote which decides whether the country had to repeat the national elections that could cause left Syriza party rule and create uncertainty in international bailout. Potential bad Greek voting results has become one of the risk factors that suppress the EURUSD pairing.

Over the weekend, Jens Weidmann member of the ECB and the Bundesbank president also stated that the rate of economic growth in Germany has the potential to improve over the next year estimates, and expressed optimism that the situation in Europe is not as bad as many people expected.

Libya turmoil Help Oil

Friday, December 26th, 2014

Nymex oil prices recorded a thin reinforcement in early Asian session after the explosion in the Libyan oil tank will assuage investor fears in the market supply is abundant. Libya is still covered by a civil war in which the various parties seeking to maintain or expand his territory. Libya is a member of OPEC oil production despite a fairly low level below 1 million barrels per day.

A rocket fired oil storage tanks at the oil port of Es Sider. Militants and government troops battling around the largest oil port in Libya is to get control over oil exports. Two of the largest oil port in Libya, Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, has closed with increasing anxiety over the safety of workers. Protracted battle has lowered Libyan oil production to just 352,000 barrels per day.

Oil prices have dropped 45% since reaching a high level of $ 107.65 in June last. Investors are concerned with the abundance of supply is in the middle of the gloomy outlook for global demand. Anxiety over abundance of supply is reflected in the data of US oil stocks rose by 7.3 million barrels last week. Nymex oil is now traded $ 56.09; try to stay away from low-level daily $ 55.66

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

Nikkei Concerned With Japan's economy

Friday, December 26th, 2014

Nikkei recorded a weakening thin after a series of Japanese data released today sinyalkan Japanese economy will still slumped in recession in the last quarter of 2014. Although improved, the level of annual household expenditure Japan unspoiled decline 2.5% in November. Performance of industrial production and retail sales also disappointing that industrial production fell 0.6%, while annual retail sales recorded an increase of only 0.4% in November. The Nikkei 225 fell 0.13% and is now trading at 17784.57

Japanese inflation also slowed in November, weighed down by the fall in world oil prices and slowing consumer spending. Inflation (consumer price index) recorded only an annual 2.4% rise; lower than the 2.9% rise in October. Annual core inflation (which has issued securities sales tax increase in April last and volatile food prices) also increased by only 0.7%; lower than the 0.9% rise in October. However, with inflation slowed and is below the target of 2% BoJ then this may have raised expectations for additional stimulus from the central bank again.

From the corporate sector, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) rallied 1.1% after its subsidiary Sumitomo Mitsui Banking (SMBC) will announce the purchase of retail banking business unit of Citigroup in Japan worth 40 billion yen ($ 333 million). Zojirushi shares fell 7% after the kitchen equipment manufacturer predicts a 31% decline in profits for the last quarter of 2014

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

Deteriorating performance in The End of Yen

Friday, December 26th, 2014

Yen great opportunity to finish the 4th quarter as one of the worst performing major currency, with only a few market participants who believe that if the Japanese currency's performance will be improved in the first quarter of next year. Aggressiveness of the Bank of Japan is still the biggest risk for the yen, with the policy direction that tends to "deviant" compared to countries other G10 key.

Although there are few signs that the BoJ will return to act in Q1 2015, political uncertainty and macroeconomic factors other possibility would still make the yen traded lower versus major rivals

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

Deserted market, Yuan Record Strengthening Against Dollar

Friday, December 26th, 2014

After weakening Wednesday, China's yuan exchange rate strengthened against the dollar today. The main cause is none other than the increase in the daily reference rate set by the central bank.

Yuan was observed at the level of 6.2041 per dollar, or more powerful than yesterday's close of 6.2163 position. The main parity morning capped at 6.1213, higher than parity Yuan yesterday at 6.1247.

Liquidity in the market is quite limited since many market participants are on vacation. Bid-ask spreads observed width and volume of transactions is very small. Abroad, non-deliverable forwards (NDF) 1-year USD / CNY fell to 6.3535 / 6.3585 from 6.3560 yesterday's record / 6.3610.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

Sterling Vulnerable to Slowing Eurozone

Friday, December 26th, 2014

Optimism over the outlook for Sterling looks less and less, as the continued shrinking of rate hike expectations the Bank of England earlier since last July. A shift in investors' view that along with increasingly gloomy economic outlook 18-nation bloc, Britain's biggest trading partner.

Recent data indicate if the euro zone becomes the goal of 48% of total UK exports, the highest in almost two years. It indicates that although the UK economy has recovered from the blow of the recession in 2008-2009, sensitivity to the weakness in the Euro zone has increased

US Reserves Reports Back undermines Oil Prices

Thursday, December 25th, 2014

Oil fell on Wednesday as a government report showed US oil inventories rose to the highest level in two months.

West Texas Intermediate oil fell by 3.6% in New York. Crude stockpiles rose by 7:27 million barrels in the week ended December 19 as surging imports, according to a report from the Energy Informatiorn Administration. The report was previously projected to show a decline of 2.5 million barrels, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts. "Too much amount of oil increases. Refineries operated at a high level but not high enough to make up the decline in this regard."

Oil futures surged yesterday after the Commerce Department data showed that US GDP rose by 5% at an annual rate in the period from July to September, it was the largest since 2003. Oil menunju largest annual decline since 2008 amid global oil abundance in worsening by level US production reached its highest level in three decades. Prices have fallen about 20% since OPEC on December 27, decided to maintain the target level of output at 30 million barrels per day.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

10-Year Bond Yield Japan Touches Record Low

Thursday, December 25th, 2014

Japanese government bond yield benchmark 10-year fell to a record low on Thursday, as investors switch seek higher yielding bonds amid sluggish trading in conjunction with the holiday season in most of the region.

Yields on JGB (Japanese Government Bond) 10-year fell 2 basis points to 0.310%, the lowest in history.

2-year bonds for the first time the Japanese government also sold with a negative yield. Which highlights how much influence the qualitative and quantitative easing policy the Bank of Japan, through large-scale purchases of short-term bonds

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

BOJ will Supervise Salary Negotiations between the Company and Labour

Thursday, December 25th, 2014

Bank of Japan (BOJ), today spoke to the media to explain the dynamics of Japanese monetary policy. Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated that the additional stimulus that was released in late October not to respond to the trend of decline in world oil prices. He insisted that low oil prices actually support the domestic economy in the long run. Furthermore, the central bank also will force firms to be willing to raise the salaries of its employees.

"To avoid misunderstanding, I assert that the latest BOJ policy not to respond to oil market conditions," Kuroda said a few moments ago. He believes that the decline in oil is good news for the economy if the cause is the factor supplies. Japan will benefit from current conditions because this country is a major importer.

The central bank has admitted that the decline in oil prices will hamper efforts to acceleration of inflation in the short term. But if reanalyzed, cheaper oil prices would make production activities run faster and trigger an increase in prices in the long term.

The government and the BOJ also compact asks companies to raise wages in the process of annual negotiations with the union. Adjustment of salaries of workers is expected to hoist the purchasing power of citizens that prices were rising and is able to pull out of Japan from deflation phase that has lasted 15 years. "I have a special attention to the process of negotiation between workers and employers, 'said Kuroda.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

BoJ Kuroda Stay Confident With Japan's economy

Thursday, December 25th, 2014

Bank of Japan (BoJ), Haruhiko Kuroda, said the decline in oil prices will provide significant benefits to the Japanese economy and will also help in the long-term rise in inflation. "Japan continues to show improvement to eliminate deflationary mindset," said BoJ Kuroda urged the business community while raising wages to ensure the end of deflation that has undermined the economy in the last decade.

Kuroda also pointed out additional stimulus BoJ conducted at the meeting late October is not a response to the fall of oil prices. "To dispel misunderstandings, I want to clarify that additional stimulus is not a response to the fall of oil prices," said Kuroda. The BoJ has surprised the market by announcing additional monetary stimulus to 80 trillion yen per year at a meeting in late October. At the November meeting, the BoJ did not change its monetary policy.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

Minutes: BoJ Officials Worried With Additional Risk Stimulus

Thursday, December 25th, 2014

BoJ Minutes were released this morning showed that some central bank officials worry about the risks that can be caused by extra monetary easing that has been executed. One of the BoJ officials have called for efforts to menimalkan risk with operational policies more flexible market according to market conditions. However, the minutes show that monetary policy changes to the initial conditions in a short time can damage the credibility of the central bank.

Minutes of the meeting minutes of the meeting on November 18 to 19 past where the BoJ does not change its monetary policy after a surprise add monetary stimulus to 80 trillion yen per year at a meeting in late October. November meeting showed their support 8 votes in favor of the current BoJ policy and only 1 against. It is quite good when compared to the October meeting where only 5 officials who support the policy of the central bank, while four other officials oppose.

Estimate OPEC Oil Prices Back Above $ 70 Per Barrel At The End Of 2015

Wednesday, December 24th, 2014

Delegation of the Arab OPEC oil producers estimate global oil prices will rebound to around $ 70 - $ 80 per barrel by the end of next year as the global economic recovery improve the level of demand.

However, the OPEC delegates predict oil prices will still be difficult return to the level of $ 100 per barrel in the near future, due to the level of $ 100 per barrel price will actually trigger a surge that is too excessive production of non-OPEC producers. Equilibrium point oil prices are expected to be achieved at the end of 2015, assuming the lack of OPEC oil production cuts by the end of next year.

According to OPEC production cuts to stabilize the price of oil is not only the responsibility of OPEC, non-OPEC oil producing countries such as Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan and other countries are capable of producing 1 million barrels per day will also need to cut production if it is to maintain price stability.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

China Will Expand Scope of Private Banks in 2015

Wednesday, December 24th, 2014

China will extend the pilot program next year to allow the establishment of a pure private banks and loosening the rules of entry of private capital to the banking sector, according to the head of the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), Shang Fulin. China Securities Journal on Wednesday reported Shang said at a meeting that CRBC will add a new channel next year which could allow private capital to invest in the banking sector, including expanding the scope of the pilot program for banks and consumer finance companies private.

Shang statement following a public commitment to increase the participation of private capital in the financial sector in order to increase efficiency and reduce the risk of bad debts of the central government to the state-owned banks. The recent stock market rally has a new funding stream from individual and institutional investors in banking stocks, which performance is improved lately.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

Aso: Wage Increase Key Success 'Abenomics'

Wednesday, December 24th, 2014

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso on Wednesday urged the companies to raise wages to sustain private sector consumption, stressed that efforts of the private sector is key to the success of the policy stimulus "Abenomics" of Shinzo Abe. He also asserted the need for fiscal reforms to prevent the exercise of market lost confidence in the Japanese financial sector, after delaying the sales tax increase next year. "The eyes of Abenomics third arrow will not be successful unless the companies indicated their intention to cooperate and raise wages," Aso said in a press conference

News and Review of European Economic Zone (France)

French Unemployment Rate Touches New Record High

Wednesday, December 24th, 2014

The unemployment rate in France touched a new record high in November, strengthening the challenges faced by President Francois Hollande in boosting the 2nd largest economy Euro zone.

The number of unemployed in France increased by 27,000 in November to 3.49 million, according to the Ministry of Labor reported Wednesday. The figure was 0.8% higher than in October and rose 5.8% from a year earlier. Monthly unemployment rate, which recorded an increase in all age categories, only shows once a decline in the last year.

The highest record unemployment Hollande highlights efforts to create jobs and spur hiring. Since taking office as President of France in May 2012, the government has initiated funding to encourage youth employment and labor tax cut. But the unemployment rate actually swell more than half a million over slowing economic growth.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Switzerland)

KOF: Key Indicators of the Swiss Economy Weakens at End of Year

Wednesday, December 24th, 2014

The main indicators are released KOF Swiss Economic tapering off at the end of 2014. It indicates if the Swiss would not be able to avoid the impact of the economic slowdown in the Euro zone, which bought more than half the country's annual exports.

The index fell 0.2 points to 98.7 in December from 98.9 in November, according to a report Wednesday KOF. This figure is still weaker than expected 99.3. Nevertheless, the index remained near the long-term average and the level of the signaling largely Swiss economic outlook is still stable, plus agency based in Zurich it.

Beyond that, the fragility of the Euro bloc economy has forced the Swiss government last week lowered its forecast for GDP growth to 2.1% in the next year from its earlier projection of 2.4%.

Keep OPEC production, Libya Output Down Sharply

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Unrest in Libya has pushed oil production levels below the level of consumption on the holder of the largest oil reserves in Africa is a factor reminder that not all OPEC members are in a position to maintain market share by maintaining output. Along Iraq plans to raise the supply of next year amid repeated promise from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to transport the same amount of crude oil, Libya's National Oil Corp. said output has dropped to "very low levels." The conflict between the government and Islamic militants has spread to the region Mellitah, where the oil port of Libya is the fourth largest, after causing disturbance 2 other export terminal, according to the NOC.

"The current situation in the port and production facilities is the pioneer of serious consequences if the crisis is not resolved soon," said NOC, requested that the clashing factions to "let go of the oil industry, the livelihood of all the people of Libya." Libya is currently producing 350,000 barrels per day as of December 15. the output of Libya reached about 1.6 million barrels before the uprising in 2011 that ended the tenure of Muammar Gaddafi for 42 years.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

Investigation Shares Weight the Chinese Stock

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

China's Shanghai Composite Index fell as much as 2.2% at the opening, as traders focus on news that Beijing was investigating the possibility of manipulation of stock prices. Security agency on Friday said it had conducted investigations against 18 shares, but does not explain the reason for the investigation. Much more shares owned by the company under investigation is small, such as a car tire manufacturer in eastern China's Shandong province. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index rose as much as 0.2 successfully unlocked% on Tuesday, near the highest level since Dec. 12.

Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties shares opened higher by 0.2% leading to HK $ 48.10 in his first debut, compared to the initial price at HK $ 48. Chinese real estate developer company, belonging to billionaire Wang Jianlin, managed to collect 3.7 billion in an initial public offering that makes the shares become the largest IPO in Hong Kong since 2010. Shares of Sun Hung Kai Properties rose 0.7% after the trial of corruption cases meliibatkan company officials ends last week. Judges will announce the charges, which can make Thomas Kwok and Rafael Hui was sentenced to 7 years in prison respectively for proven corruption.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

Pound Weakens Vs. Euro Along Easing Anxiety In Russia

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

The pound weakened for the first time in five days against the euro after Saudi Arabian Oil Minister said that the oil market will recover, the statement was calm nerves decline of the Russian economy that relies on oil exports that previously would potentially overload the Euro area.

The British currency was little changed against the dollar before the release of a report tomorrow that economists said will show the UK economy grew by 0.7% in the third quarter. UK government bonds rose for a second day after the Bank of England report that shows global risks to financial stability have increased since June. Policymaker David Miles said separately that the UK does not need attitude looser monetary policy.

"The movement of the pound against the euro is greater affected by the euro," said Lee Hardman, currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mistusbishi UFJ Ltd. in London. "It seems that Russia's concerns about the economic outlook has subsided and it supports the euro. We expect the strengthening of the pound against the euro will take place in the long term."

The pound fell by 0.3% to 0.7848 per euro at 24.00 pm after rising by 1.3% in the last week, it is the greatest appreciation since June. Sterling is currently engaged in a range of $ 1.5615

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Greece)

Opportunities Greek Syriza Party Denies Exit From Euro Zone

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Influential officials of Syriza Party Dimitris Papadimoulis reaffirmed his party's commitment to remain in the Eurozone.

Since the announcement of the Presidential vote in Greece, there are some reports that the international market now do not trust the government is controlled by the Syriza party, while opposition parties also have a plan B to return to the Drachma currency, consequently the Greek stock market dropped sharply due to political uncertainty and anxiety default if there are scenarios Greece out of the euro zone.

Once released the results of the latest poll in which Syriza still leads the vote in the upcoming election, seeks to reduce the fear Papadimoulis Greek exit from the euro zone, to declare that the government is still committed to escort Syriza Greece survive in the Eurozone. Opportunities Greek exit of the Eurozone it is very dangerous for the economy that will trigger a new phase of recession, soaring unemployment and poverty.

Additionally scenario Greek Exit from the Euro zone is also very unlikely that allowed because it would cause a systemic impact for the entire region of Europe, including Germany

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Greece)

Greece Ready To Vote President Back

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Greek parliament prepares to return to vote tonight's presidential election. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is still trying to garner more support Stavros Dimas, the presidential candidate who proposes, can be selected as the next head of the Greek state. Samaras has megajukan offers to accelerate the implementation of the elections at the end of 2015 so that more members that voted for Dimas.

Voting is scheduled to occur at 17:00 pm and the results may be obtained several hours later. However, it remains unclear whether Samaras can find additional 20 votes needed to pass Dimas as President of Greece. So far there are only 169 votes in parliament which supports Dimas; still less than the minimum of 200 votes.

Voting president of Greece is quite crucial because it can determine whether the financial markets must be prepared to face the Greek turmoil could lead to turmoil several years ago. Voting ends earlier last week failed. If the vote fails tonight, Samaras still has until December 29 to garner more support in parliament. The last Voting may be done next Monday only need 180 votes to put Dimas presidency.