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Oil Rebound Amid Speculation Investment Manager

Monday, December 22, 2014

US crude oil futures rose on Monday terkerek due to improved investor buying interest ahead of the end of the year after a sharp fall of oil prices in the fourth week in a row and lost 23.62% of its value.

Over the weekend, officials OPEC OPEC's decision last month to not change production quotas OPEC producer, with reasons if they cut quotas, but the producers of oil shale in the US did not join the production cut their market share has the potential to be seized.

Commodities analyst at Barclays predicts on Monday, the fall of crude oil prices, the possibility has not been completed and various economists now anticipate lower oil prices until the end of 2015.

Unlike the case with investment managers who add net long positions in crude oil futures speculation in oil prices will rise. Under the CFTC report, various money managers add a bullish position with net long contracts 217.723 per December 16, up 13.8% compared to the previous week

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (South Korea)

South Korea Cuts 2015 Growth Projections

Monday, December 22, 2014

South Korea cut its growth forecast and said it would revise capital controls in anticipation of rising US interest rates and other external risks to the economy is the fourth largest in Asia. The economy is expected to expand by 3.8% next year, lower than the estimate by 4% in July, according to the Minister of Finance, related to the level of domestic demand is lower than expected. The Minister of Finance may revise the rules in 2015 on currency forwards and foreign currency liabilities to prevent excessive outflow, according to the statement.

South Korean domestic economic conditions have weakened since last July, said Minister of Finance, and increased market volatility due to the weakening of the yen and the US rate hike speculation can cover the outlook for growth. President Park Geun Hye has loosened rules and launched stimulus housing loans worth 31 trillion won and reached a record budget separately in 2015 to encourage the growth rate. "Our policy remains expansionary, but consumer sentiment and investment in the private sector is not improving as it should," said Lee Chan Woo, Director General of the Ministry of Finance.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

BoE Weale: Drop in Oil Prices Not Signals Long-Term Inflation

Monday, December 22, 2014

The sharp drop in oil prices should not be considered as a signal level of inflation in the next few years, according to one senior Bank of England who voted to hike interest rates. "What we have seen in recent months is a very sharp decline in oil prices has a direct impact on the rate of inflation," said Martin Weale on Monday. "But where inflation will be in the next 2 years is a different matter."

Weale and other BoE officials Ian McCafferty is 2 out of 9 members of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted to hike interest rates in recent months. The central bank has signaled it does not expect rate hikes until 2015 as the central bank said there was little pressure on inflation, which seems to be down far below the level of 12-year low at 1% were touched in November. Weale warned that oil prices have come down much deeper since the MPC of most recent meeting in early December, but the data also showed the rate of growth of wages rose slightly faster than expected. "The increase in the wage rate is a good thing," he said. "However, if the rate of increase in wages has increased very sharply, it can trigger inflationary pressures." He also predicted the existence of a number of productivity growth in 2015 while the decline in oil prices will help consumer spending.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

BoE's Miles: Slowing Inflation England Risk of Deflation

Monday, December 22, 2014

A sharp slowdown in the rate of UK inflation does not pose a risk of deflation and no new policies are needed to stimulate the economy, according to one senior Bank of England on Sunday newspaper column. David Miles, which suggests the existence of affirmative action when the financial crisis as one of the nine members of the BoE policy votingi, said that some people argue that slowing the rate of inflation as the reason for the need for a more lax policy. "It seems implausible 6 months ago and even now I still doubt," he said, explaining that the decline in food and fuel prices mean people are more able to cope with their debt and may not be meunda shopping today. "But it does mean that there is no rush to start the process of normalization of monetary policy. "

Miles said he probably would not vote for a rate hike before his tenure at the BoE ends in August and in line with expectations in financial markets he mengatkan first rate hike will only be at the end of next year. Part of the reason is the sharp drop in global oil prices in recent years, which has been pressing down the rate of inflation, and a weak level of demand in emerging economies, especially China, he said.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

CBI: Companies in the UK might be an increase of wage in 2015

Monday, December 22, 2014

The companies in the UK are planning to loosen the rules of wage increases in the epidemic in 2015, but the increase will be limited by increased costs for holiday overtime pay and pensions, as well as weak productivity growth, according to the Confederation of British Industry on Monday. 43% of companies participating in the survey said they intend to raise wages in the next wage review at a rate equal to the retail price index, and 12% of the company said it would raise more, according to the CBI. This is compared to 42% and 7% respectively in the same survey last year, the CBI said.

"Gradually, as the recovery has strengthened, the number of companies planning to stop the wage increase has been reduced significantly and more companies seem quite optimistic to start raising the level of wages," said deputy director general of the CBI, Katja Hall. Bank of England are monitoring the rate of wage growth, which has lagged far behind inflation since the financial crisis but has recently been showing signs of recovery, considering time as interest rates rise. The size of RPI inflation was at 2.0% in October.

CBI companies estimate labor costs to rise as a result of changes in the wage calculation holidays and new requirements on companies to put employees in a pension scheme. Hall said the business is also concerned about the issue of the existence of more stringent regulations terhadpa immigration, which can make the company more difficult to get the right staff, and is in the range of wages.

Oil Still worried about excess supply

Friday, December 19th, 2014

Nymex oil prices turned lower as investors remained concerned with the excess supply of oil in the market. Oil has dropped 45% from this year's high in June after the shell technology to boost US oil production level to a height of 3 decades and slowing global demand. Nymex oil prices are now trading $ 54.42; away from the daily high level of $ 58.99.

"Saudi Arabia and OPEC is difficult to give up the oil export market share by cutting production," said Saudi Oil Minister Al-Naimi. "The world oil market is experiencing instability for the time being due to a slowing world economy."

"Russia's economy must be ready to adapt to the reality that oil prices could fall to a low level of $ 40 per barrel," said President Vladimir Putin. Earlier, Russia's oil minister said Russian oil production will not change in 2015, still 10.6 million barrels per day as in 2014. Russia is the world's largest oil producer

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

Bank of Japan: Inflation will Loss in First Half 2015

Friday, December 19th, 2014

2% inflation target announced by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is still far from reality. In his statement a few moments ago, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, asserts that the increase in the prices of goods / services will not happen in the first half of 2015.

The central bank considers Japan is facing new challenges in achieving its inflation. The decline in oil prices on a large scale is predicted to inhibit the rise in prices, at least until the end of the first semester "Taking into account the downward trend in world oil prices, it is difficult for Japan to meet the inflation target," he said in a press conference after the regular meeting. For the record, in its meeting of the BOJ did not change interest rates.

Kuroda also dismissed the issue of the release of an additional stimulus to accelerate the domestic economy. The central bank is still optimistic the current policy is in line with the inflation target of 2%, which can be achieved coveted around March 2016. "The transition from deflation in the field of climate goes according to our expectations," said the BOJ's boss. He also claimed the citizens and businesses of Japan pretty confident looking forward trend of rising prices in the next few years.

BOJ in recent weeks receiving heavy criticism from economists and finance for being silent while the lower oil prices. Commenting on it, Kuroda affirmed the oil price movement has entered into a plan of inflation which is running now, especially after the policy last October. "The price of oil is going to hamper inflation in the short term, but for long-term low oil prices will support the economy," Kuroda said. Head of the central bank believes that economic growth due to the weakening of oil will lead to an increase in prices. In short, the long-term inflation will terkerek by economic factors, not the correlation of oil prices and the market price.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Italy)

Booking Italy Industry Up in October

Friday, December 19th, 2014

The number of industrial orders in Italy increased in October, thanks to the improvement in domestic demand.

Booking industry rose by 0.1% on a monthly level, restore a decrease of 1.5% in September, in the report by the Italian statistics bureau Istat on Friday, using the data seasonally adjusted. Total bookings fell by 0.2% at an annualized rate in the time that has not been adjusted, Istat added.

Monthly increase in October led to an increase of 1.5% in domestic bookings, especially from the transportation sector, including vehicles, trains and ships.

Istat official said that the signs of improvement in domestic demand is a good sign for the Italian economy.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Surplus Balance Walking Down the Euro zone in October

Friday, December 19th, 2014

Euro zone current account surplus narrowed in October from a revised increase in surplus in September, due to a surplus in both the goods and services declined, the data show by the European Central Bank on Friday.

Balance sheet runs, which is the broadest measure of the financial position of the international economy, showed a surplus of 20.5 billion euros ($ 25.24 billion) in October, down from 32 billion euros in September, the ECB said.

The surplus for goods fell to 19.3 billion euros in October from 21.6 billion euros in September, while the surplus in the services sector shrank to 5.5 billion euros from 10.4 billion euros.

For a period of 12 months to October, a surplus of 2.5% of GDP Euro zone.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (France)

France Business Sentiment Unchanged in December

Friday, December 19th, 2014

The level of business confidence in France stable in December, in the report by the French statistics bureau Insee on Friday.

Insee said that the readings for the level of confidence in December was at 99, unchanged from November. Meanwhile business leaders say bookkeeping orders from abroad to be stronger in the current outlook for their production stagnant.

Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimated the level of business confidence in December was still at the same level as in November.

Fluctuating oil reserves in the Middle Reports US

Thursday, December 18th, 2014

Oil fluctuated near five-year lows as investors consider the decline in US oil reserves for signs that Iran would join the other OPEC members in refusing to give up market share.

Oil futures contract was little changed after yesterday rose by 1%. US crude oil reserves, which is the world's largest oil consumer, fell as much as 847 000 barrels last week, reported yesterday by the Energy Information Administration. Iran this week to follow the steps of Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwati in offering bigger discounts for sales to Asia. "

"Normal if oil prices lower," said Carl Larry, director of oil and natural gas at Frost & Sullivan in Houston in an interview on Bloomberg Television today. OPEC members "are trying to get the forefront of the consumer, and one of them is Chinese. I do not think that they will get back US consumers to supply that occurred in the country, but I think they want to get as much as possible from China.

January WTI oil moving in the range of $ 57.55 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 16:20 pm. The contract yesterday rose as much as 54 cents to $ 56.47. The price has fallen by 43% this year, is on track for the biggest annual decline since 2008.

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Euro Zone Construction Activity Rises in October

Thursday, December 18th, 2014

Construction activity in the 18-nation euro currency users increased at the fastest pace this year in October, which is an indication that while the interests of households and businesses to invest began to show a slight improvement.

Report of the European Union's statistics agency, Eurostat, Thursday showed construction grew 1.3% from September, the biggest monthly gain since December 2013.

Having started the year 2014 with a strong, construction sector activity has decreased in the 2nd quarter and 3rd ago, which contributed to a slowdown in the currency bloc in the second period. Investment spending also slumped in the 2nd quarter, indicating if the business sector is not sure the economy will be able to expand quite strongly in the next few years to generate profit growth. Their reluctance to invest also curb the recruitment of new workers.

Other data released by Eurostat on Thursday also showed the level of jobs unchanged at 1.6% in the 3rd quarter, which indicates the growth of the job market will not accelerate and keep the unemployment rate at near record highs.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

German Business Confidence Up in December

Thursday, December 18th, 2014

The level of business confidence in Germany rose for the second month in a sign that the country with the largest economy in Europe is able to overcome the weakness that hit them at the beginning of this year.

Business climate index from the Ifo institute, which beradasarkan survey of 7,000 executives, rose to the level of 105.5 in December from 104.7 in November, which is when it rose for the first time in seven months. These results are in accordance with the median estimate of 38 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The Bundesbank said that the German economy is showing signs of strengthening after stagnating in the middle of this year and is on track "moderate early" for the fourth quarter. Even so, the recovery will probably come more slowly to help the euro area economy, which makes the European Central Bank considers fatherly buying government bonds to prevent deflation Eurozone.

"There is ample evidence that our current toward a moderate recovery than memasuk new recession," said Nick Kounis, head of macroeconomic research at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam. "But it will be slow to get where the ECB wants inflation."

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Greece)

Opposition Party Potential Wins Election Greece

Thursday, December 18th, 2014

Greek Prime Minister Samaras outvoted in the first round of presidential election voting by the Greek parliament. Samaras reportedly only get 160 votes, thus requiring 20 votes more than the independent camp or smaller parties to avoid accelerated national elections early next year.

With two rounds of voting scheduled for next December 23 and December 29, a victory for the government in power at this time is difficult to be expected, but the first round of voting results below estimates.

Of the 300 MPs, 160 voted for the candidate vote Stavros Dimas, with 135 vote against and 5 abstentions, less than 200 vote majority needed to vote the President in the first round.

The results of the poll while mengindasikan that Greece is likely to be won elections leftist Syriza party that promises renegosisasi international bailout on Greek deal needed to maintain the stability of state funding.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (Switzerland)

Swiss Exports Down, Central Bank Deposit Interest Rate Change

Thursday, December 18th, 2014

Two important news coming from Switzerland today. Data export of the country fell in November and the central bank will set a negative interest rate per January 22, 2015.

Swiss exports slowed in November 2014 due to a decrease in the volume of demand for machinery products, electronics and watches. Export November fell 2.9% compared to the same period last year (real terms and adjusted for inflation) to 18.06 billion francs ($ 18.6 billion). Meanwhile, if calculated in nominal terms, Switzerland exports fell 0.2%.

The volume of imports of the country touched the numbers 14:19 billion francs, equivalent to a decrease of 12.1% (real terms) than in 2013 and 11.4% (nominal terms). Thus, the Swiss trade surplus increased from 3.23 billion to 3.87 billion francs. By sector, exports of watches in November fell 4.4% with a total value of 2.06 billion francs.

On the same day, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) follow the European Central Bank to cut interest rates on deposits in line with its commitment to limit the franc exchange rate. Euro exchange rate jumped 0.5% to 1.2073 francs into. Loose policy of the European Central Bank imposed forced the SNB to desperately hold the exchange rate at the level of 1.20 per Euro. Negative deposit rate is a way to reduce the attractiveness of the franc in the eyes of foreign investors.

Turned Oil Rises After EIA Report

Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

Crude oil prices instead turned higher on Wednesday despite the Energy Information Administration report showed a decline in US inventories were smaller than expected.

EIA said US crude stocks trurun 800,000 barrels in the week ended December 12, missing expectations for a decline of 2.5 million barrels. In the same occasion EIA also reported an increase in gasoline supplies as much as 5.3 million barrels, while distillate fuel inventories slipped by 200,000 barrels. Analysts had forecast gasoline inventories rose 2.3 million barrels and distillate oil inventories rose 670,000 barrels.

Currently Crude oil for January delivery is offered in the range of $ 56.60 or approximately 0.5% over the closing price on Tuesday

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (Japan)

Japanese Export Sector Growth Rate Slows

Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

Japan's export sector grew for the third month in November from a year ago, but much slower than expected and despite a sharp decline in the exchange rate of the yen as slowing demand in Asia and Europe to press trade. Sebeasr 4.9% rise in the level of exports is much weaker than the estimated increase of 7.0% by economists, and slowing of the increase of 9.6% in October, according to data from the Ministry of Finance. The weakening in the export sector may exacerbate the impact of the sales tax increase last April which drive the economy into recession in the second contraction in the third quarter.

"The level of exports to Asia and Europe is weak. Exports to Europe fell as a result of the attention focused on Russia, but the slowdown in Asian exports may only temporary reaction to the rise in the sharp rise in October, driven by a single factor such as the export of ships to Singapore," said Hiroshi Watanabe, senior economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. "I still estimate the level of exports will remain strong as the US economy continues to help trigger output in Asia and Japan. It will be welcomed by the Japanese government."

News and Review of European Economic Zone

Euro Drops Sharply Due Comment ECB Coeure

Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

2 weeks later after the Bundesbank stated its agreement to disburse the ECB's policy of non-conventional in addressing the risk of deflation, ECB board member Coeure provide aggressive statement that the consensus of the ECB today shows that the central bank should take additional steps to raise inflation and economic mendongrak.

Surely this comment investors responded that the QE program in the form of asset purchases of government bonds will be implemented though Coeure not explain in detail that the ECB extra steps like.

As a result of pairing EURUSD -0.82% fell sharply at the level of 1.2408 so far, away from daily highs at 1.2514 and intraday lows at 1.2406.

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

BoE: Positive Impact of Oil Prices Fall For The rate of UK GDP

Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

World crude oil prices fall quite sharply lately possibility boost economic growth in the UK, concluded by BoE officials within minutes of the MPC monetary policy meeting some time ago.

MPC meeting minutes released Wednesday showed that 9 MPC board members take a vote 7 versus 2 to keep the benchmark rate at the level of 0.5% BoE and won unanimously to maintain the asset purchase program unchanged at 375 billion pounds, equivalent to $ 589.56 billion.

BoE official Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty still hawkish than the other board members to recommend a hike in interest rates to as low as 0.75% in order to maintain long-term inflation risks. However, the majority of the MPC concluded that weak wage growth rate, as well as commodity prices fall factor will likely restrain inflationary pressures.

Approximately 35% of the fall in oil revenue denominated in pound sterling since June should be able to boost the purchasing power of consumers and sustain global demand so that the rate of growth in the UK remained stable. Therefore, the MPC committee saw the fall of oil became a separate stimulus for economic activity of Great Britain and its major trading partners in Europe

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

Work Data England in October result Optimistic

Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

The unemployment rate in the UK fell to its lowest level in three months in October and wage growth exceeded inflation for the first time since March as the labor market continues to recover.

Wage growth rose by 1.4% from a year ago, up from 1% in the third quarter, in the report by the Office of National Statistics in London on this day. The number of unemployed is measured based on the method of the International Labor Organization as much as 63,000 dropped into 1.96 million. The report left the unemployment rate at 6%, it is the lowest level since 2008. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a drop to 5.9%.

Strengthening labor market and anxiety at the possibility of increased pressure on wages has made two BOE policy makers to push up interest rates. The central bank last week kept interest rates at record lows at the level of 0.5%, where it had stood since March 2009.

The data show that the number of people working rose as much as 115,000 to a record high 30.8 million. The number of claims for unemployment benefits fell as much as 26.9000 in bullae November, was greater than the estimated 20,000 and reduce the unemployment rate to 2.7%.

An increase of 1.4% in wages in the last period compared with 1.3% inflation in October. Outside bonuses, wage growth rose to 1.6% from 1.2%

Oil Prices Continue Weak Due to the abundance of Global Oil Still

Tuesday, December 16th, 2014

Global crude oil prices slumped to below $ 60 a barrel for the first time in five years with virtually no signs that the producers prepare to dampen excess supply.

Brent oil futures slipped as much as 3.3% to its weakest level since May 2009 in London. West Texas Intermediate oil, fell below $ 55 a barrel for the first time in five years. The US oil drillers benefit due to lower costs almost as fast as the decline in oil prices, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. OPEC should not have to reduce production at the time other manufacturers continue to expand their production, UAE Energy Minister.

Crude oil slumped almost 45% this year as OPEC looks more to maintain market share amid surging US shale oil inventories are exacerbating flood of global oil. OPEC, which is responsible for about 40% of global supply, would refrain from output restrictions, said the UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei on 14 December.

"We need to see more evidence that some manufacturers will stop or reduce the supply of oil to the market before it can return of confidence in the market," said Thina Saltvedt, an analyst at Nordea Markets in Oslo. "Until it does not happen, the price could continue to fall."

Brent oil in January, down as much as $ 2.04 becomes $ 59.02 per barrel. Meanwhile January WTI oil fell $ 1.50 sebantaj be $ 54.41 per barrel.

News and Economic Review Zone Asia (China)

HSBC China Manufacturing PMI By contract in December

Tuesday, December 16th, 2014

Factory output in China back down for the second consecutive month in December, adding to concerns over the slowdown in activity in the second largest economy in the world and reinforcing expectations of additional stimulus measures needed to avoid a sharper slowdown. China's PMI of manufacturing sector from HSBC / Markit fell to 49.5 from 50 in November, contracted for the first time in 7 months.

"This means China closes the year with a sharp slowdown," said Frederic Neumann, MD and deputy head of the HSBC Asian economies. "We saw a contraction in the manufacturing sector. In fact, the number of new orders refer to further weakness. I think China should return policy loosening." "We think the growth rate next year will be around 7.3%, but depends on further easing from the central bank," added Neimann. "If they continue at current rates, the possibility of the growth rate will drop to a level of around 6%, so that additional policy easing and interest rate cuts are needed to boost the economy."

News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

UK inflation Decline to Lowest Level 12-Year

Tuesday, December 16th, 2014

UK inflation dropped to its lowest level in more than 12 years in November, which relieve pressure on consumers and left the Bank of England without the pressure to raise interest rates soon. UK consumer price index grew at an annual pace of 1.0% in the last month, compared to a 1.3% increase in October, according to the Office for National Statistics reported Tuesday. Economists had forecast UK CPI will grow 1.2% from a year ago.

The decline largely reflects the decline in world oil prices. Details of the ONS report shows fuel prices fell by 5.9% compared to November last year, while food prices dropped 1.7% with increasing price war between supermarkets. Slowing the increase in the price of games also contributed to the decline in the inflation rate. While Sterling appreciation in recent months has also helped curb inflation by cutting the price of imports.

Bank of England in the last month has been expressed that inflation is expected to drop to below 1% in the next few months, following the fall of crude oil prices

News and Review of European Economic Zone

German and French Economic Data Not Able to Sustain Eurozone

Tuesday, December 16th, 2014

Manufacturing and service sectors in 18 countries of the euro area barely expanded in December as the growth of business activity in Germany and France still looks sluggish.

Markit Economics said that the composite index for the manufacturing and services sector rose to 51.7 from 51.1 in November, up slightly above the level of 51.5 which is an estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Factory index rose to 50.8 from 50.1, while the index for the services sector rose to 51.9 from 51.1.

With the French economy is stagnant this year, the Italian who was in a recession and Germany who are struggling to leave the level of the weakest growth in the middle of this year, the European Central Bank is ready to launch further stimulus in the central government is grappling with economic reforms. Some support for the euro zone consumers may be coming from oil prices have dropped more than 40% this year, while the exporters might benefit from a weaker euro.

"Growth in the Euro zone activity looks a little faster in December but still looks more attenuation than the surge in the economy towards the end of the year, the fear of weakening still visible in the core countries such as France and Germany," says Chriss Williamson, chief economist Markit in London. "The increase was largely driven by the entire region, where growth reached its highest level in five months to complete the best" area "seen since 2007."

News and Review of European Economic Zone

German Manufacturing Index Experiencing Repair

Tuesday, December 16th, 2014

German PMI manufacturing index rebounded to a high of 2 months at 50.3 and 51.2 exceeded estimates better than the previous month at 49.5 elvel.

However, the German service sector index actually dropped to the lowest level in the last 17 months at the level of 51.4, slipping from the previous period in November 52.1.

Overall the data of manufacturing and service sector is still in line with the Q4 GDP growth rate in line with the risk of weakening PMI report is in the weakest pace since Q2 2013.