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Yen’s sharp strengthening: due to currency intervention or faith in the yen? The USDJPY pair has declined, and investors continue to speculate whether this was driven by hidden financial intervention or unfavourable news from the US. USDJPY trading key points Thomson Reuters/Ipsos primary consumer sentiment index (PCSI) in Japan: previously at 37.69%, currently at 37.63% Japan’s industrial production (m/m): previously at -0.9%, currently at 3.6% CFTC JPY speculative net positions: previously at -184.2 thousand USDJPY price targets: 159.70 and 157.22 Fundamental analysis The USDJPY rate continues to decline today, 12 July 2024. The sharp strengthening of the yen has raised many questions with few answers. Some investors suggest the Bank of Japan has conducted hidden currency intervention, while others believe this was a reaction to US fundamental news. Either way, players who bet on a decline in the USDJPY pair generated profit. The primary consumer sentiment index (PCSI) data has already been released, showing that the index remained practically unchanged and probably had no impact on the quotes. Despite a 0.9% fall in the previous month, industrial production in May increased by 3.6%, exceeding the expectations of a 2.8% rise and impacting the yen’s strengthening. By increasing industrial production, Japan may strengthen its currency without resorting to overt financial intervention. A likely scenario for further yen strengthening could be the BoJ’s comprehensive approach, which would involve solving challenges with inflation and prices for consumer goods and services and covert currency intervention until it is officially announced. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

EUR rises again The EURUSD pair is gradually rising. The market will be cautious ahead of the US CPI data release. The EURUSD pair regained strength and rose to 1.0836 on Thursday. Today is crucial for the currency market. US June consumer price index statistics and a corresponding basic report are due in the afternoon. The figures will provide the market with more insight into what to expect from the Federal Reserve in the near term. Inflation is expected to have fallen to 3.1% y/y from the previous 3.3% and is projected to have risen by 0.1% month-over-month from a zero value in May. It will be essential to monitor core inflation figures as they will show whether there are significant changes in groups of goods and services excluding volatile items. The annual and monthly core CPIs are expected to remain at 3.4% and 0.2%, respectively. EURUSD technical analysis On the EURUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range continues to develop above 1.0806 without any clear trend, with the market receiving support at this level. Today, 11 July 2024, the price rose to 1.0839 and is expected to decline to 1.0811, a crucial level for the EURUSD pair. With a breakout below this level, a correction could continue to 1.0777. If a growth wave develops and the price breaks above 1.0840, the trend might continue to the local target of 1.0888. EURUSD appears confident and is rising. Technical indicators suggest a potential correction in the EURUSD pair towards the 1.0777 target. Once the correction is complete, a new growth wave might start, aiming for 1.8888. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

USDJPY is rising amid uncertainty about the BoJ’s actions The USDJPY rate closely approached weekly highs on Thursday, 11 July 2024. The current USDJPY exchange rate is 161.68. USDJPY trading key points Uncertainty about the BoJ’s actions: traders awaiting a rate hike Japan’s machinery orders: unexpected decrease of 3.2% in May USDJPY price targets: 162.00 and 162.52 Fundamental analysis Intrigue regarding the pace of monetary policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan remains. Markets anticipate that the BoJ may raise interest rates in late July in an attempt to curb the yen’s weakening. Analysts’ opinions vary, with some believing this will not be enough to halt USDJPY growth in the long term. Japan’s Ministry of Finance officials reiterated their readiness for currency market interventions. Although they currently have a limited effect, they help to keep the yen weakening slowly and moderately. Recent data showed an unexpected 3.2% (m/m) decline in Japan’s core machinery orders in May, indicating a potential economic slowdown. This is another signal favouring a further decline in the yen’s rate. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

EURUSD: Nagel’s and Powell’s speeches may give hope for the euro’s strengthening The EURUSD pair continues strengthening ahead of officials’ speeches and amid the rising US national debt. Wednesday, 10 July 2024, is rich in speeches from the central bank and Fed’s chiefs and officials. A speech by the president of the Deutsche Bundesbank (concurrently a member of the ECB Governing Council) may shed light on the future EU monetary policy and help strengthen the euro against the US dollar. A subsequent speech by Deutsche Bundesbank official Sabine Mauderer may bolster the words of the Deutsche Bundesbank president. Comments from the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are due after the US trading session opens, potentially adding to the market volatility and providing insight into the future of US interest rates. The increasing US national debt also works against the US dollar. Although any market movements can be expected in this environment, the general situation does not favour the US currency at this stage. The euro is more likely to strengthen than the US dollar. EURUSD technical analysis On the EURUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range continues to develop above 1.0806. This level is considered crucial for the EURUSD pair today, 10 July 2024, with the market receiving support at this level. A rise to 1.0844 is expected. If this level breaks, the price could climb to the local target of 1.0888. After reaching this target, the price is expected to decline to 1.0840 (testing from above). Subsequently, another growth structure could follow, aiming for 1.0900. The Federal Reserve chair’s speech, rising US national debt, and technical indicators suggest a potential correction towards the 1.0888 and 1.0900 targets. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

CHF is under pressure: the SNB may lower the rate twice this year The USDCHF rate declined on Wednesday, 10 July 2024. The pair reacted weakly to the Federal Reserve chair’s speech, and the current USDCHF exchange rate is 0.8971. USDCHF trading key points SNB is poised for two rate cuts this year The Swiss regulator is clearly discontent with the rising national currency’s rate USDCHF price target: 0.8930 Fundamental analysis The USDCHF currency pair has closely approached the 0.8967 support level. Investors are analysing yesterday’s comments from Jerome Powell, stating that the Federal Reserve does not plan to lower interest rates until it is confident inflation is steadily moving towards 2%. However, Q1 data does not add to confidence. On the other hand, traders expect the Swiss National Bank to cut rates twice this year to withstand the franc’s potential strengthening. Although the SNB clearly expressed its discontent with the strength of the national currency, a decline in the rate should be limited. On the upside, should inflation rise unexpectedly, the central bank is ready to intervene in the currency market situation if necessary. Investors estimate the likelihood of another SNB rate cut in September at 50% as Switzerland’s recent consumer price index report fell short of expectations again. This may significantly support the US dollar against the franc. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rise ahead of the Federal Reserve chair’s speech Gold prices are rising on Tuesday, 9 July 2024, partially recouping Monday’s losses. The 2,350 level serves as strong support. Today, investors are focused on the upcoming report by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in the US Congress. Last week’s economic data showed weakness in the US employment market, with the unemployment rate reaching the highest level in the past 2.5 years and wage growth slowing to a three-year low. These indicators have significantly increased expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Markets currently estimate the likelihood of a September interest rate reduction at 77%, with another cut following in December. Powell’s speeches to the Senate on Tuesday and the House of Representatives on Wednesday will likely provide investors with insights into the Federal Reserve’s further actions. Additionally, crucial inflation data is due Thursday, which may impact markets. Any hint of rising rate cut expectations may boost gold prices again. XAUUSD technical analysis The price of gold remains above the upper boundary of a triangle pattern, with the target for the pattern completion at 2,450 USD. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 9 July 2024, suggests bullish momentum to 2,393. A rebound from the support level will provide an additional signal for a price rise. It is worth noting that the previous testing of this line pushed the price up by over 3%. A price decline below the 2,340 level can invalidate the bullish scenario. Such movement will indicate a breakout below the lower boundary of the ascending channel, followed by a further fall to 2,315. Gold prices are climbing, driven by the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and reinforced by the weak US employment market data. The XAUUSD technical analysis points to bullish momentum, with the first target at 2,393. Read more - XAUUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

USDCAD finds equilibrium, but the Canadian dollar remains strong Investors in the USDCAD pair are assessing the latest statistics and forecasts. The Bank of Canada’s actions will determine further movements. USDCAD trading key points The market is considering Canada’s employment market statistics The Bank of Canada may lower interest rates at every meeting until the end of 2024 USDCAD price targets: 1.3696, 1.3600, 1.3530, and 1.3473 Fundamental analysis The Canadian dollar has stabilised against the US dollar after strengthening markedly in July. The USDCAD pair is hovering around 1.3635. Investors were prompted to react to last week’s Canadian employment market statistics release. The unemployment rate rose 6.4% from 6.2% in June, with the economy losing approximately 1,400 jobs. Although this is not the largest possible loss, signs of economic weakness are increasing. The USD’s depreciation also contributed to the previous drop in the USDCAD pair. The slowing US economy is causing widespread concern, intensifying the focus on interest rates. The likelihood of a Bank of Canada interest rate cut at its July meeting is estimated at 60%. If this occurs, it will mark the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut, with markets anticipating a total reduction of 55 basis points by the end of the year. If the Bank of Canada lowers interest rates again on 24 July, the market will likely interpret this as a signal for further cuts at each subsequent meeting unless unforeseen events happen. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Wage growth in Japan accelerates The USDJPY rate is correcting on Monday amid the highest US employment rate since November 2021. The pair could not drop below the 160.20 support level. USDJPY trading key points Earnings in Japan reached their highest level since January US job growth decreased to the lowest seen since November 2021 USDJPY price targets: 160.00, 159.30, and 158.70 Fundamental analysis Earnings in Japan increased by 1.9% year-over-year in May 2024, marking the highest reading since January. However, the indicator is yet to catch up with inflation. As a result, real wages in the country continued to decrease for 26 consecutive months, preventing the BoJ from achieving the desired rise in prices and earnings and impeding the normalisation of monetary policy. The revised Q3 data on US job growth may negatively impact the dollar-to-yen exchange rate. In June, the unemployment rate reached its highest level since November 2021. Traders expect the first Federal Reserve interest rate reduction in September, followed by further quarterly cuts to a final rate of 3.25-3.50% Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

EURUSD remains elevated but is not too high The EURUSD pair continues its ascent. However, the euro faces risks due to the French political situation. The EURUSD pair appears relatively expensive, hovering at 1.0828 on Monday. Although US nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 in June, exceeding expectations of 191,000, the data fell short of May readings. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.4%. As expected, average hourly earnings in June expanded by 0.3% m/m following a 0.4% increase in May. The market viewed the statistical data as soft, heightening expectations of a September US Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which pressured the USD position. However, the euro also has reservations. The French election results created uncertainty about the country’s financial prospects. The left-wing alliance may have received an unexpected number of votes, creating challenging conditions for forming the French parliament. EURUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, EURUSD received support at 1.0806. A consolidation range has practically formed around this level, which is considered crucial for the EURUSD pair today, 8 July 2024. Breaking above the range will open the potential for a growth wave to the local target of 1.0900. After reaching this target, the price is expected to fall to 1.0840 (testing from above). Subsequently, another growth structure could develop, aiming for 1.0944 The EURUSD pair remains elevated, but risks are mounting. Technical indicators point to a potential further correction to the 1.0840, 1.0900, and 1.0944 targets. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

NZD has reached new weekly highs, driven by the weak US dollar The NZDUSD pair has risen for the fourth consecutive day, driven by the US dollar's weakness. The NZDUSD pair rises for the fourth consecutive day, reaching 0.6116. The New Zealand dollar gains ground due to the US dollar's weakness. The USD previously declined after the release of the ADP employment data in the US private sector and amid decreasing business activity in the services sector. These factors strengthened the market view that the Federal Reserve will reduce borrowing costs by the end of 2024. The US dollar fell, giving other currencies a chance to rise. At its previous meeting, the Federal Reserve noted an inflation shift in the right direction but believed prices were not moving fast enough to revise interest rates. Some Federal Reserve monetary policymakers stress the importance of being patient and consistent when making interest rate decisions. Others believe that it is time to raise rates as inflation is rising. NZDUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, NZDUSD has corrected towards 0.6128. The market is forming a consolidation range around 0.6115, which could extend up to 0.6134 today, 5 July 2024. Once the price reaches this level, a new decline wave is expected to start, aiming for 0.6090. Breaking above this level will open the potential for a decline to 0.6040, potentially continuing to 0.6023, the estimated target. The New Zealand dollar is strengthening, supported by the weakness of the US currency. The NZDUSD technical analysis suggests the completion of the correction and the beginning of a new decline wave to the 0.6090 and 0.6040 targets. Read more - NZDUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Gold (XAUUSD) is strengthening ahead of the nonfarm payrolls release Gold price is steadily rising, with market participants focusing on today's US employment market data – nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. XAUUSD trading key points Current trend: gold is steadily rising after reaching a daily resistance level at 2,368 USD Market focus: today, market participants focus on US employment market data – nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate Price dynamics: XAUUSD quotes are consolidating slightly below the 2,368 USD level during the European trading session Fundamental analysis Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 190,000, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4%. Following the release of US employment market statistics, volatility in XAUUSD quotes may surge. Depending on the upcoming data, they might continue their growth to new local highs or correct downwards following their previous rise. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

EURUSD has risen significantly, and statistics have nothing to do with it Risk appetite is pushing up the EURUSD pair. US statistics came out mixed, providing no clear signals. The EURUSD pair has risen markedly over the last two sessions and stabilised at 1.0785 on Thursday. Yesterday, the market had a plethora of macro statistics to consider, which have been factored into prices overall. The first signals about the state of the employment market have been received and analysed: the ADP number of jobs in the US private sector increased by 150,000 in June compared to the forecasted 163,000 and the previous 152,000, providing a neutral signal. Let us see what Friday’s NFP release will bring. The services PMI appears uneven. The official PMI report showed a decrease to 48.8 points in June from 53.8 points in May, a warning signal. At the same time, Markit observations reflected an increase to 55.3 in June from the previous 54.8. Readings over 50.0 points indicate improvement and expansion. EURUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, EURUSD has corrected to 1.0815. Today, 4 July 2024, a consolidation range could form below this level. With a downward breakout of the range, a new decline wave might start, aiming for 1.0730, a crucial level for this wave. Once the price reaches this level, it could correct to 1.0777 (testing from below). Subsequently, the decline structure might develop, targeting 1.0677 and potentially continuing to 1.0630. Risk appetite supports the EUR position. Technical indicators for today’s EURUSD forecast point to a further decline to the 1.0680, 1.0600, and 1.0555 targets. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

JPY is gaining momentum, with the US economy slowing The USDJPY rate is declining ahead of Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report. EURUSD trading key points The Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes confirm US economic slowdown The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September increased to 68% from 56% Traders are awaiting the release of Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report USDJPY fundamental analysis The US dollar declines on Thursday, influenced by weak economic indicators. Investors believe there is a gradual turn in the flow of US economic data, and the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes confirm economic slowdown and easing inflationary pressure. Market expectations about a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September rose to 68% from 56% a week earlier. Traders may adjust positions in anticipation of Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report, a key indicator for assessing the economy’s state. This may be the primary reason behind the USDJPY pair’s current decline. Overall, investors continue to monitor the JPY closely, considering the possibility of a currency intervention by the Japanese government. However, Japan’s Ministry of Finance stated that the goal of a potential intervention will not be the yen rate but its excessive volatility. Current market conditions do not meet the criteria for Japanese authorities to intervene. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

The yen is deteriorating: JPY continues to depreciate The USDJPY pair is hitting 37-year highs, with the Bank of Japan’s inaction working against the yen. The Japanese yen is suffering considerably from this depreciation. Following financial interventions in May by the Japanese government and regulator, the yen stabilised for some time. However, it started weakening on 6 May, and the USDJPY pair has continuously risen since then. The primary reason for the yen’s weakness is the significant difference in monetary approaches and interest rates between the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve. The BoJ interest rate remains at zero. The Bank of Japan’s inaction on the interest rate issue and the lack of a plan to normalise monetary policy exert pressure on the JPY. At the same time, the market speculates that the BoJ may raise the rate or give respective instructions at its meeting in late July. The weak yen negatively impacts household consumption, increasing import costs and heightening inflationary pressure. USDJPY technical analysis On the USDJPY H4 chart, a support level formed at 161.00, with the wave continuing to develop towards 161.85. Today, 3 July 2024, the price might reach this level and correct to 161.00 (testing from above). Subsequently, the quotes could rise to 163.30, representing the main target of this growth wave. The yen’s depreciation remains the main scenario. The USDJPY technical analysis suggests the growth wave extension to the 163.30 level, followed by a decline to the 158.90 and 157.40 targets. Read more - USDJPY Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

EURUSD continues to strengthen in anticipation of speeches by the ECB and FOMC officials The EURUSD pair is rising ahead of upcoming ECB and FOMC data. After the release of the FOMC minutes, another corrective wave may follow. EURUSD trading key points The eurozone services PMI is projected at 52.6, lower than the previous 53.2 A speech by ECB official Philip R. Lane A speech by FOMC member John C. Williams US nonfarm payrolls: prior reading of 152,000 and a forecast of 163,000 US initial jobless claims: previous reading of 233,000 and a forecast of 234,000 A speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde FOMC minutes release EURUSD fundamental analysis The EURUSD pair continues to strengthen on the news. The euro awaits speeches by ECB official Philip R. Lane, ECB President Christine Lagarde, and FOMC member John C. Williams, which may adjust the EURUSD rate and help strengthen the euro against the US dollar. Nonfarm payrolls are projected to rise, and initial jobless claims are expected to increase as well. At this stage, it can be preliminarily concluded that these indicators will not significantly impact the EURUSD rate. The FOMC minutes will be released at the end of the US trading session, potentially increasing volatility and temporarily supporting the EUR. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

AUDUSD is falling: the market does not believe in interest rate hikes The Australian dollar is declining for the second consecutive day. The AUDUSD pair is returning to fluctuations within the traded range. The AUDUSD pair declines to 0.6638 on Tuesday, retreating from a two-week high despite the recent hints from the Reserve Bank of Australia about a potential interest rate increase. According to the RBA’s June meeting minutes, monetary policymakers prefer to remain vigilant about inflation risks. They believe that significant price rises may necessitate a noticeable rate hike. However, the RBA is confident it can bring inflation down to the 2% target while maintaining economic and employment stability. Investors estimate a one-in-three chance of an RBA interest rate hike at its August meeting. On a global level, the Aussie is under pressure from the US dollar due to increased treasury bond yields. AUDUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, the AUDUSD pair has formed a consolidation range above 0.6630 and, after breaking above it, extended the range to 0.6677. Subsequently, the quotes returned to the 0.6633 level, crucial for the AUDUSD forecast for 2 July 2024. A downward breakout will open the potential for a decline in the AUDUSD rate to 0.6555, representing the estimated target. The Aussie is under pressure from the USD due to increased treasury bond yields. The AUDUSD technical analysis points to a further correction towards 0.6555. Read more - AUDUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

USDJPY analysis: the yen continues to lose ground The USDJPY pair continues its ascent, with no significant correction expected in the near term. USDJPY trading key points 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) auction – 1.091% Japan’s monetary base (y/y) – 0.6% USDJPY targets: 163.30, 158.90, 157.40 USDJPY fundamental analysis The 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) auction did not help the yen. The USDJPY rate continues its ascent. Insignificant news does not rescue the yen from depreciation at this stage. Japanese authorities’ actions are widely viewed as playing for a rival, with attempts to strengthen the yen ending with another increase in the USDJPY rate. Bulls are aggressive and seem to have a clear strategy – to make the most of the yen’s depreciation. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

EUR has risen: all eyes on French policy The EURUSD pair partially recovered its previous decline on Monday. The far-right party was not strong enough in the first round of the French election, which was positive for the market. EURUSD starts the week rising. The EURUSD pair increased to 1.0753 and returned to levels seen on 13 May. Investors are now primarily focused on data from the first round of the French snap election. Although the far-right was again winning, it did not appear as strong as before, favouring observers and boosting the EUR rate. Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) won the first round of the parliamentary election on Sunday. However, the party secured fewer votes than expected. The euro has declined since France’s President Emmanuel Macron called snap elections. EURUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, EURUSD is currently in a consolidation phase around the 1.0714 level. This level is considered crucial for the current decline wave in the EURUSD pair. Today, 1 July 2024, a corrective phase is expected, targeting 1.0760. Subsequently, a decline wave might start, aiming for 1.0600 and potentially continuing to the local target of 1.0573. The Elliott Wave structure with the centre at 1.0714 technically confirms this scenario. From the fundamental analysis perspective, the EURUSD pair is supported. Upcoming economic reports will be crucial for determining short-term movements in the EURUSD rate. Technical indicators point to a further decline to the 1.0600 and 1.0573 targets. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

GBP continues to strengthen following a decline The GBPUSD pair is strengthening its position following the release of the house price indices. It is likely to undergo a correction ahead of a further decline. GBPUSD trading key points The UK’s Nationwide House Price Index (y/y) in June 2024 increased by 0.2% The UK’s Nationwide House Price Index (m/m) in June 2024 decreased by 0.2% The GBPUSD targets: 1.2600, 1.2500 GBPUSD fundamental analysis The UK released its year-on-year and month-on-month house price indices for June 2024 on Monday, 1 July 2024. The figure increased slightly by 0.2% year-on-year and declined by 0.2% month-on-month, which did not prevent the pound from strengthening against the US dollar. The consumer and mortgage lending figures will also be published today. However, given their low importance, the data will not significantly impact the GBPUSD rate. US manufacturing PMI data is due during the second half of the European trading session. While the forecast suggests growth, the actual data release will confirm this, which may exert significant pressure on the GBPUSD rate. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

NZDUSD declines again: the primary reason is the strong US dollar The NZDUSD pair is falling, facing strong pressure from the US dollar and reaching mid-May lows. The New Zealand dollar-to-US dollar rate continues to decline with regular intervals for consolidation, but the overall trend is steady and quick. The NZDUSD pair is falling to 0.6059. The current values are the lowest since mid-May. The market is preparing for the evening’s US releases. In particular, it is interested in core PCE data, one of the most significant inflation reports for the Federal Reserve. The figures may provide insight into the Fed’s future actions on interest rates, which is currently offering strong support for the USD. As for news from New Zealand, it remains relatively neutral. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s stance remains unchanged: it will maintain a stable monetary policy at least until mid-2025 due to ongoing inflation growth risks. However, investors believe that the RBNZ will lower interest rates in November. Although the NZD rate declined by 1.2% in June, the Kiwi dollar gained 1.5% over the quarter. NZDUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, NZDUSD has completed the first decline wave towards 0.6068 and corrected to 0.6108. Subsequently, the price is expected to fall to the local target of 0.6038. A consolidation range might form around 0.6073, a crucial level for the NZDUSD forecast for 28 June 2024. A downward breakout of this level will open the potential for a decline in the NZDUSD quotes to 0.6038, potentially continuing to 0.5995, the estimated target. The Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 0.6070 technically confirm this scenario. The market has reached the first target of the decline wave near the Envelope’s lower boundary at 0.6068 and then undergone a correction towards its centre at 0.6108. Today, the market is under pressure to fall to 0.6038. If this level breaks, the price might decline to the Envelope’s lower boundary at 0.5995. Read more - NZDUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

JPY falling due to fundamental discrepancies in Fed and BoJ policies The USDJPY rate declined on Thursday, 27 June 2024, unable to hold at the 38-year high of 160.85 reached on Wednesday. The Japanese authorities expressed concerns about the sharp decline in the yen. The country’s major financial policymaker, Masato Kanda, said they were closely watching the situation and were ready to act. Renowned currency analyst Masafumi Yamamoto warns that the USDJPY rate may rise to 162.00 if the Japanese authorities do not take prompt action to support the national currency. However, traders are unsure whether the Japanese authorities’ verbal or actual actions can halt the yen’s decline. The yen’s weakness is attributed to investor uncertainty about the pace of Fed interest rate cuts. The opinion is that if the BoJ slightly adjusts its zero-rate policy at the 30-31 July meeting, this will unlikely significantly impact the yen rate. USDJPY technical analysis On the USDJPY H4 chart, the market received support at 160.00. Today, 27 June 2024, a rise to 161.30 is possible, followed by a correction to 160.00 (testing from above). Subsequently, the price could rise to 162.00, potentially continuing the uptrend to 163.30. Once this wave is complete, a decline might start, aiming for 158.90 as the first target. The Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a 158.90 pivot point technically confirm this USDJPY scenario. The market has received support at the Envelope’s central line and continues growth to its upper boundary. A decline wave is expected from the 161.30 level to the Envelope’s centre at 160.00. Subsequently, a consolidation range could form around this level. With an upward breakout, the growth wave might expand to 163.30. A decline wave aiming for the Envelope’s lower boundary is expected only after the price reaches this level. Read more - USDJPY Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

EUR is declining ahead of the Eurogroup meeting Today’s EURUSD forecast appears pessimistic as the news landscape may confirm the technical analysis conclusion about the pair’s decline. The Eurogroup meeting and a speech by ECB representative Philip R. Lane are scheduled for Wednesday. They might provide insights into the future trajectory of the eurozone’s monetary policy. The US will release data, including May 2024 new home sales, building permits, and crude oil stocks. If these indicators exceed forecasts and previous readings, they may collectively support the US dollar, which will be considered in today’s EURUSD forecast. By the end of the business day, the US will publish the results of bank stress tests the Federal Reserve conducted on 34 of the largest US banks to evaluate their ability to increase dividends and buy back shares. Although such tests are rare, their results may affect the US dollar by contributing to its strengthening or weakening, which will cause increased volatility in the market. EURUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, EURUSD is currently in a consolidation phase around the 1.0717 level without any clear trend. With an upward breakout of the range, a correction might continue to 1.0760. After reaching this level, the price could decline to 1.0680. Subsequently, another corrective structure might develop, aiming for 1.0770 as the main target for correction. Once the correction is complete, a new decline wave is expected to start, targeting 1.0680, a crucial level for the EURUSD forecast for 26 June 2024. A breakout of this level will open the potential for a decline to 1.0610, possibly continuing to 1.0570, the estimated local target. The Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 1.0680 technically confirm this scenario. This level is considered crucial for a downward wave in the EURUSD rate. The market has breached the Envelope’s centre and is consolidating below the 1.0717 level. The wave could decline to its lower boundary today. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

AUD rises to a two-week peak, supported by several factors The AUDUSD pair benefits from the RBA’s tough stance, the US dollar’s weakness, and attacks on the yen. The Australian dollar has reached a two-week high against the US dollar and is hovering near the 0.6660 mark. The main support for the Aussie came from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which maintains a hawkish stance on monetary policy. The RBA is expected to lower the interest rate much later than other major central banks. Thus, the markets missed nearly every chance of an interest rate cut from the RBA in 2024. Overall easing is only projected to happen by the end of 2025, with an average expectation of 43 basis points. RBA Governor Michele Bullock said that the regulator discussed the need for an interest rate hike at its June meeting without even considering a rate reduction. The AUD rate is currently benefitting from short attacks on the JPY and the local weakening of the US dollar rate. Later this week, the market will focus on Australia’s inflation data. AUDUSD technical analysis A consolidation range has formed above the 0.6630 level on the AUDUSD Н4 chart and extended to 0.6677 following an upward breakout. Subsequently, the market returned to the 0.6630 level, which is crucial for the AUDUSD forecast for 25 June 2024. With an upward breakout, the price might rise to 0.6750. A downward breakout will open the potential for a decline in the AUDUSD quotes to 0.6565. If this level breaks, the trend might continue towards 0.6424, representing an estimated target. This scenario is technically confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 0.6555. The market has reached a local target of the growth wave at the Envelope’s upper boundary – 0.6710. Following this, the price declined to its lower boundary at 0.6577 as part of a correction. Today, the market continues to develop a consolidation range around the Envelope’s central line at 0.6630. With a downward breakout, a decline wave could follow, targeting the Envelope’s lower boundary at 0.6565. An upward breakout might enable a growth wave, aiming for its upper boundary at 0.6750. Read more - AUDUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

The fall of the pound continues for the second week On Monday, the pound keeps losing ground against the US dollar, continuing its decline since 12 June 2024. British industrialists expect a slight improvement in the UK Industrial Orders Index (CBI). The CBI came out worse than expected in the last reporting period, but now the analysts are waiting for more favourable data, which will not help improve the GBPUSD rate. The indicator is expected to settle around the -26 level in the current reporting period compared to -33 in the previous one. Index values below zero indicate a decline in the volume of industrial orders and have a negative impact on the GBPUSD rate. Also on Monday, the CFTC data on the number of net speculative positions in GBP among traders in the New York and Chicago futures markets will be released. Over the past four weeks, the number of positions in GBPUSD has been growing, which may indicate an increase in demand for this asset among speculators. GBPUSD technical analysis According to the analysis on 24 June 2024, GBPUSD is developing another decline wave towards 1.2600. On the GBPUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range has formed around 1.2666. This level is crucial in the current decline wave. If the price falls below the range's boundary, another decline wave could develop towards a local target at 1.2600. After this wave is completed, a corrective GBPUSD growth structure towards 1.2666 (test from below) may begin, followed by another decline wave with a first target at 1.2477. This scenario is technically confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a wave matrix with a pivot point at 1.2666. The market continues to decline to the lower boundary of the Envelope. After reaching 1.2600, a growth wave towards the Envelope's centre at 1.2666 may begin. After that, a decline to the Envelope's lower boundary at 1.2477 is possible. Only after the price reaches this level may the decline wave be considered complete. A correction to the Envelope's upper boundary may follow. Read more - GBPUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

JPY struggles amid widespread decline The Japanese yen is undergoing a correction after the release of the May core consumer price index. The likelihood of continued weakening remains high. Japan released the nationwide core consumer price index for May. In the previous period, the index was 2.2%. Analysts had predicted a 2.6% rise, but the actual figure was 2.5%, indicating an improvement, although less than expected. The positive trend did not save the yen from losing positions against the US dollar. A higher index value typically suggests a positive outlook and strengthens the yen. However, in the current situation, the data did not favour the yen’s exchange rate, which has led to its further weakening. The US Federal Reserve’s report on monetary policy may “add fuel to the fire” and weaken the yen even more. USDJPY technical analysis On the USDJPY H4 chart, the fifth corrective wave continues to develop, with a target at 159.35. The price has reached the local target of 158.80. Today, 21 June 2024, a consolidation range is expected to form around this level. A downward breakout of the range will open the potential for a decline to 158.20 (testing from above), followed by a rise towards 159.35, representing the main target for correction. Once the correction is complete, a decline wave might start, aiming for 155.50. This USDJPY rate scenario is technically confirmed by the Elliott Wave structure and a correction matrix with a pivot point at 155.70. The market has completed a growth structure towards the Envelope’s upper boundary at 158.80. A decline wave is expected to begin, targeting its centre – 158.20, with an onward growth wave structure aiming for 159.35 as the main target. Read more - USDJPY Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team