RBFX Support

Trump takes the lead, but the USD remains hesitant: all eyes on politics The EURUSD pair is consolidating. Investors need to assess crucial changes in the US political race. The EURUSD pair stopped at 1.0888 on Monday. The market is extremely cautious as the weekend brought unexpected news that needs to be analysed and weighed. The incumbent US President, Joe Biden Jr., announced his decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential campaign. He supported Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement. However, it is still unclear whether Harris can gain the required support as the new Democratic nominee. Former US President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, is far ahead. Although Harris can be a strong politician and a presidential nominee, the question remains whether this is enough to change the results of preliminary surveys. EURUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has reached the decline wave’s local target of 1.0875. Today, 22 July 2024, a correction was formed, aiming for 1.0902 (testing from below). The decline wave is expected to continue to 1.0860, representing the first estimated target. After reaching this target, the price could rise to 1.0900. Subsequently, another decline wave could develop, aiming for 1.0820 and potentially continuing to 1.0777. The EURUSD pair has become became centre of US political news. Technical indicators suggest a further corrective wave, with a target at 1.0777. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

JPY is rising amid expectations of BoJ policy tightening The USDJPY rate declines on Monday morning, 22 July 2024, after a two-day growth. The current USDJPY exchange rate is 156.55. USDJPY trading key points Japan’s inflation continues to rise The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates next week USDJPY price targets: 158.28, 154.80, and 154.66 Fundamental analysis The Japanese yen is rising after rebounding from the 157.60 resistance level. Investors expect the BoJ to raise interest rates next week amid rising inflation. Consequently, the USDJPY rate has fallen by more than 2% over the past two weeks. Investors believe the Japanese government is already intervening in the currency market to support the national currency rate. The Bank of Japan’s data shows that the authorities could have purchased about 6 trillion yen a week ago. Although Japan’s inflation remained at 2.8% in June, the core index, excluding food and energy prices, jumped to 2.6%. This data reinforces traders’ view that the BoJ may start tightening monetary policy despite potential risks for the country’s weak economy. The possibility of the yen’s rate rising further in the near term persists. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

AUD falls again, marking the fifth consecutive day of decline The AUDUSD pair continues to lose ground. The market is selling off risky assets. The Australian dollar, in the pair with its US counterpart, has been steadily and uninterruptedly falling for five days. The AUDUSD pair reached 0.6698, the lowest level in the last two weeks. The sell-off is associated with the strengthening of the US dollar. According to recent data, Australia’s unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1%. At the same time, June’s job growth is notable, indicating heightened tension in the employment sector, which elevates concerns about an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Investors are now pricing in a 20% possibility of an RBA interest rate hike in August, whereas the figure did not exceed 12% a couple of days ago. AUDUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, the AUDUSD pair has completed a decline wave, reaching 0.6699. A consolidation range is expected to form above this level today, 19 July 2024. With an upward breakout, a growth wave could start, aiming for 0.6750 and potentially continuing to 0.6811. The Australian dollar came under pressure from the USD and employment market data. Technical analysis for the AUDUSD pair suggests a growth wave to the 0.6750 and 0.6811 targets. Read more - AUDUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Brent prices fall, driven by a sell-off of risky assets Brent crude oil prices are dropping again. The market has experienced sales growth amid falling prices for risky assets and the US dollar strengthening. Brent trading key points Brent prices are falling due to pressure from the US dollar China’s plenum did not outline measures to support the economy Brent price targets: 85.00, 85.40, 86.90, and 88.00 Fundamental analysis The commodity market was again under pressure, with a barrel of Brent crude oil falling to 84.73 USD on Friday. Investors took a more cautious stance when assessing the global economic outlook, resulting in sales in stock and commodity market sales, which contributed to the growth of the US dollar. Statistics showing stronger-than-expected growth in July’s industrial production and increased jobless claims amid seasonality also bolstered the USD. Commodity goods are generally believed to be less profitable to purchase amid USD growth. Chinese news failed to support the oil sector. China’s third plenum ended yesterday without providing any guidelines on measures to revive the country’s economy. As China is the world’s largest oil consumer, positive signals from this side could support commodity prices. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

GDP stays afloat despite fundamental data A decrease in the number of claims for unemployment benefits and a stable unemployment rate increase the chances of the British pound strengthening. Average earnings in the UK (including May bonuses) decreased by 0.2% from the previous value, in line with the forecast. The UK claimant count change exceeded expectations but was lower than the previous reading. These data did not significantly affect the GBPUSD rate, with the pair continuing to trade around 1.3000. The unemployment level remained flat, aligning with the forecast and having little impact on the price. Data, including US initial jobless claims, is due after the US trading session opens. A preliminary forecast shows an increase to 229,000, which could negatively impact the US dollar. GBPUSD technical analysis Analysis of 18 July 2024 shows that the GBPUSD pair has reached the growth wave’s local target of 1.3040 (adjusted for an extension). A correction towards 1.2945 could start today. Once the correction is complete, the price might rise to 1.2990. Subsequently, a decline wave is expected, aiming for 1.2850 and potentially continuing to 1.2800. Fundamental data and technical indicators suggest a decline in the GBPUSD rate to the 1.2945, 1.2850, and 1.2800 targets. Read more - GBPUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Gold (XAUUSD) could reach new all-time highs amid US news Gold continues to rise on Thursday, 18 July 2024, offsetting Wednesday’s correction. XAUUSD trading key points The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (US): previously at 1.3%, forecasted at 2.7% A speech by US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) official Mary C. Daly XAUUSD price targets: 2,434.84, 2,400.00, and 2,386.50 Fundamental analysis This week’s economic data showed a slight increase, helping the precious metal strengthen its position against the US dollar. XAUUSD quotes are maintaining their upward trajectory. US economic data, including the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, is scheduled for release today. The indicator is projected to rise to 2.7% but it is difficult to foresee what will come. Weaker-than-expected data may exert pressure on the US dollar and push gold prices further up. A speech by US FOMC official Mary C. Daly last time negatively impacted the US dollar. Investors expect this speech to answer questions about future interest rate changes and inflation growth or slowdown rates. Any response from Mary C. Daly may trigger an immediate market reaction, potentially pushing the XAUUSD to new all-time highs. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

NZD rises amid easing inflation The NZDUSD rate is rising on Wednesday, 17 July 2024, after rebounding from the support level. The price earlier reached a two-month low. New Zealand’s services PMI decreased by 2.4 points to 40.2 in June 2024, reaching the lowest level in 17 months. This is the fourth consecutive decline, indicating a significant slowdown in the services sector. Due to this, the NZDUSD rate reached a two-month low. However, today, investors reacted positively to the news that New Zealand’s annual inflation eased to 3.3% in Q2 from 4.0% in the previous quarter, marking the lowest level in three years. The New Zealand dollar recouped some losses, rising above 0.6081. Despite this data, markets are still pricing in about three interest rate cuts by the end of the year. The RBNZ kept the interest rate at 5.5% last week but hinted at a potential future easing of monetary policy if inflation continues to slow. This increased the chances of an interest rate cut at the August meeting which is currently estimated by markets at 53%. NZDUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, the NZDUSD pair completed a decline wave, reaching 0.6031. Today, 17 July 2024, a correction towards 0.6098 is expected. Once the correction is complete, a new decline wave could start, aiming for the local target of 0.6022. Subsequently, the price could rise to 0.6064 (testing from below) before falling to 0.5977, the estimated target. Despite growth driven by easing inflation, the New Zealand dollar could weaken due to a significant decline in business activity in the services sector. Technical analysis of the NZDUSD pair suggests that the trend could continue to the 0.6022 and 0.5977 targets. Read more - NZDUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

China’s sluggish domestic demand and economic slowdown jeopardise oil prices Brent crude oil prices fall on Wednesday, 17 July 2024, declining for the fourth consecutive trading session. Brent trading key points Declining demand in China: oil imports decreased to 46.45 million tons in June A slowdown in China’s GDP growth: GDP growth rates in Q2 fell to 4.7% Brent price targets: 85.90 and 87.72 Fundamental analysis Recent data on China’s oil imports and GDP growth rates raised concerns in the global oil market. Oil imports to China, which is the world’s largest consumer of crude hydrocarbons, declined to 46.45 million tons in June, indicating sluggish domestic demand in the country. The slowdown in China’s GDP growth rates to 4.7% in Q2, below the 5.3% recorded in Q1, adds to pessimism. The Chinese economy has traditionally been the driver of global economic activity and fuel demand. The weakening of these indicators could lead to oil oversupply in the market, which will negatively impact the prices. Although the Chinese authorities are taking action to stimulate the economy, it is not clear how quickly these measures will help revive fuel demand. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

USDCHF: second day of growth The USDCHF pair is rising for the second day. Activity in USDCHF is low as the market is keeping an eye on the situation. The instrument appears quite stable now. This is a long-awaited equilibrium point following a marked previous decline. The US dollar is strengthening against the franc amid growing overall market sympathy with the USD. This comes after last weekend’s incident with former US President Donald Trump. The assassination attempt on the politician increased his chances of winning the presidential race and the November election. Supported by this, the US dollar and US government bond yields are increasing, with other currencies forced to adapt to this situation. Due to this, Switzerland’s domestic statistics are of secondary importance to investors. Switzerland’s producer price index for June was released yesterday, coming in at zero month-over-month following a previous decrease of 0.3%. However, the indicator fell by 1.9% year-over-year. USDCHF technical analysis Technical analysis of the USDCHF pair on the H4 chart as of 16 July 2024 suggests that a decline wave could continue to 0.8901, representing the first target. Once the price reaches this target, a correction towards 0.8975 might develop. Subsequently, another decline wave could follow, aiming for 0.8826 and potentially continuing to 0.8761. USDCHF investors are forced to take into account the strength of the US dollar. Technical analysis for today’s USDCHF forecast suggests that a wave might continue to the 0.8901 target. Read more - USDCHF Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

JPY loses ground after strengthening Yen’s attempts to strengthen failed. The Japanese currency continues to lose ground against the US dollar. USDJPY trading key points Japan’s services PMI (m/m): previously at 2.2%, currently at -0.4% US core retail sales index (m/m): previously at -0.1%, forecasted at 0.1% US retail sales (m/m): previously at 0.1%, forecasted at -0.3% USDJPY price targets: 155.00 and 154.55 Fundamental analysis After attempting to strengthen against the US dollar, the yen begins to lose ground. Japan’s services PMI (m/m) was forecasted to be positive but decreased to -0.4%, affecting the USDJPY rate not in favour of the yen. The US core retail sales index and retail sales are projected to rise slightly. After the release of actual data, this may help strengthen the US dollar against the yen. However, actual values could be worse than forecasted. In this case, the USDJPY rate may continue to decline as part of a corrective wave. Hopes for the yen’s strengthening and stabilisation are fading away every day. Although currency intervention can save the yen, the Bank of Japan is not yet ready for it. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

EURUSD continues to rise: demand for risk wins over caution The EURUSD pair remains in positive territory, but the market acts carefully. It has yet to evaluate the consequences of an assassination attempt on Trump. The EURUSD pair suspended but did not halt its growth, with the main movements around 1.0892 at the start of the week. Friday’s US statistics were surprising. The producer price index in June rose by 0.2% m/m from the zero value in May in line with the 0.2% forecast. The indicator increased by 2.6% year-over-year from the previous 2.4%. Manufacturing inflation is rising, which may alert the US Federal Reserve and prompt it to maintain elevated interest rates longer than necessary. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to 66.0 points in July, falling short of forecasts of 69.5, which may also be attributed to the inflationary environment. The weekend events could not but impact the market. This refers to the incident with former US President Donald Trump, who was shot in the ear at his rally in Pennsylvania. EURUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a consolidation range around 1.0888 and extended it to 1.0910. Today, 15 July 2024, the market returned to 1.0881. The price is expected to breach this level and extend the range down to 1.0858, representing the first target for correction. A corrective wave could practically form, with the main target at 1.0808. After the correction, another growth structure might develop towards 1.0950, marking the completion of growth potential. Volatility in the EURUSD pair will increase during the US presidential race. Technical indicators point to a further correction towards the 1.0808 target. A growth wave could start once the correction is complete, aiming for 1.0950. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Elon Musk’s ambitious projects could elevate Tesla to a new level. Is it worth investing in its stock now? Over the past 30 days, the yield on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares has exceeded 48%. Elon Musk has grand plans for the company’s future. Is it worth investing in Tesla stock now? What can prevent Musk from implementing his ambitious plans? Find out more in this article. Tesla shares have experienced a prolonged decline since January 2024, with the price falling by more than 50% in four months. The price decline could be driven by Tesla’s refusal to pay compensation of approximately 55 billion USD to Elon Musk, who threatened to leave the company. The situation changed radically on 13 June when the annual shareholder meeting approved this payment. Since that day, the stock price has significantly recovered, rising nearly 50% in just one month. Tesla Inc revenue streams Tesla Inc generates revenue through various sources reflecting the diversity of its products and services. The main ones are listed below: Automotive sales – this includes direct sales to consumers and rentals Regulatory credits – selling regulatory credits to other car makers who need them to comply with environmental standards Energy generation and storage – producing and selling solar energy systems and energy storage devices such as Powerwall (for domestic use), Powerpack (for commercial use), and Megapack (for large-scale energy storage) Services and others – service and repair centres, the Supercharger network, and insurance services for Tesla electric vehicle owners Software and autonomous driving – fees for advanced driver assistance systems (Autopilot), the full self-driving unit (FSD), and software updates Tesla Inc Q1 2024 financial performance Today is 15 July 2024, meaning that the second quarter of the year is over. However, Tesla will only release its Q2 report on 23 July, so we will now analyse Q1 2024 indicators. Below is the Q1 2024 financial performance data compared to Q1 2023. Key data: Total revenues – 21.30 billion USD (a 9% decrease) Net profit – 1.10 billion USD (a 55% fall) Earnings per share – 0.34 USD (a 53% decrease) Operating margin – 5.5% (a fall of 592 basis points) Capital expenditures – 2.77 billion USD (a 34% increase) Tesla Inc promising business areas In January 2024, the Delaware (US) court invalidated a compensation package worth 55 billion USD payable to Elon Musk for his role as Tesla’s CEO. Musk criticised this decision and threatened to leave the company unless he received the compensation. He later changed Tesla’s registration from Delaware to Texas. At the annual shareholder meeting in June 2024, Musk’s compensation package issue was raised again and was approved. Although the real reasons behind this decision can only be speculated upon, it is evident that shareholders are placing another bet on Elon Musk, expecting the company’s further growth under his leadership. Robotaxi Tesla is actively developing a robotaxi service, where autonomous cars provide transportation services without involving drivers. In the future, Tesla electric car owners will be able to add their vehicles to the robotaxi network when not in personal use and earn money by renting them out as taxis. Consumers will be able to order Tesla robotaxis by using a mobile app similar to Uber and Lyft taxi services. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

The GBPUSD pair hit a monthly peak The GBPUSD pair is appreciating markedly; market sentiment is positive. The Bank of England is gathering additional arguments in favour of falling inflation. The British pound sterling appears strong against the US dollar. The latest growth impulse was driven by a statement made by Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill. He noted that additional evidence of a sustained decline in inflation was necessary before deciding to lower interest rates. Pill believes rising prices in the services sector and overall wage growth negatively impact consumer prices. UK inflation reached the 2% target in May. However, according to Pill, more is needed as this could be a temporary phenomenon. The market currently expects borrowing costs to be reduced at the September meeting. According to stock market forecasts, two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each are possible by the end of the year. GBPUSD technical analysis Based on analysis as of 12 July 2024, the GBPUSD pair has reached the growth wave’s local target of 1.2945. Today, a correction might start, aiming for 1.2777. After the correction, the price could rise to 1.2950, marking the completion of growth potential. Subsequently, a decline wave could begin, targeting 1.2610. The pound sterling is rising steadily and has reached a monthly high. Technical analysis suggests that the GBPUSD rate will continue its upward trajectory to the 1.2950 target. Read more - GBPUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Yen’s sharp strengthening: due to currency intervention or faith in the yen? The USDJPY pair has declined, and investors continue to speculate whether this was driven by hidden financial intervention or unfavourable news from the US. USDJPY trading key points Thomson Reuters/Ipsos primary consumer sentiment index (PCSI) in Japan: previously at 37.69%, currently at 37.63% Japan’s industrial production (m/m): previously at -0.9%, currently at 3.6% CFTC JPY speculative net positions: previously at -184.2 thousand USDJPY price targets: 159.70 and 157.22 Fundamental analysis The USDJPY rate continues to decline today, 12 July 2024. The sharp strengthening of the yen has raised many questions with few answers. Some investors suggest the Bank of Japan has conducted hidden currency intervention, while others believe this was a reaction to US fundamental news. Either way, players who bet on a decline in the USDJPY pair generated profit. The primary consumer sentiment index (PCSI) data has already been released, showing that the index remained practically unchanged and probably had no impact on the quotes. Despite a 0.9% fall in the previous month, industrial production in May increased by 3.6%, exceeding the expectations of a 2.8% rise and impacting the yen’s strengthening. By increasing industrial production, Japan may strengthen its currency without resorting to overt financial intervention. A likely scenario for further yen strengthening could be the BoJ’s comprehensive approach, which would involve solving challenges with inflation and prices for consumer goods and services and covert currency intervention until it is officially announced. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

EUR rises again The EURUSD pair is gradually rising. The market will be cautious ahead of the US CPI data release. The EURUSD pair regained strength and rose to 1.0836 on Thursday. Today is crucial for the currency market. US June consumer price index statistics and a corresponding basic report are due in the afternoon. The figures will provide the market with more insight into what to expect from the Federal Reserve in the near term. Inflation is expected to have fallen to 3.1% y/y from the previous 3.3% and is projected to have risen by 0.1% month-over-month from a zero value in May. It will be essential to monitor core inflation figures as they will show whether there are significant changes in groups of goods and services excluding volatile items. The annual and monthly core CPIs are expected to remain at 3.4% and 0.2%, respectively. EURUSD technical analysis On the EURUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range continues to develop above 1.0806 without any clear trend, with the market receiving support at this level. Today, 11 July 2024, the price rose to 1.0839 and is expected to decline to 1.0811, a crucial level for the EURUSD pair. With a breakout below this level, a correction could continue to 1.0777. If a growth wave develops and the price breaks above 1.0840, the trend might continue to the local target of 1.0888. EURUSD appears confident and is rising. Technical indicators suggest a potential correction in the EURUSD pair towards the 1.0777 target. Once the correction is complete, a new growth wave might start, aiming for 1.8888. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

USDJPY is rising amid uncertainty about the BoJ’s actions The USDJPY rate closely approached weekly highs on Thursday, 11 July 2024. The current USDJPY exchange rate is 161.68. USDJPY trading key points Uncertainty about the BoJ’s actions: traders awaiting a rate hike Japan’s machinery orders: unexpected decrease of 3.2% in May USDJPY price targets: 162.00 and 162.52 Fundamental analysis Intrigue regarding the pace of monetary policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan remains. Markets anticipate that the BoJ may raise interest rates in late July in an attempt to curb the yen’s weakening. Analysts’ opinions vary, with some believing this will not be enough to halt USDJPY growth in the long term. Japan’s Ministry of Finance officials reiterated their readiness for currency market interventions. Although they currently have a limited effect, they help to keep the yen weakening slowly and moderately. Recent data showed an unexpected 3.2% (m/m) decline in Japan’s core machinery orders in May, indicating a potential economic slowdown. This is another signal favouring a further decline in the yen’s rate. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

EURUSD: Nagel’s and Powell’s speeches may give hope for the euro’s strengthening The EURUSD pair continues strengthening ahead of officials’ speeches and amid the rising US national debt. Wednesday, 10 July 2024, is rich in speeches from the central bank and Fed’s chiefs and officials. A speech by the president of the Deutsche Bundesbank (concurrently a member of the ECB Governing Council) may shed light on the future EU monetary policy and help strengthen the euro against the US dollar. A subsequent speech by Deutsche Bundesbank official Sabine Mauderer may bolster the words of the Deutsche Bundesbank president. Comments from the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are due after the US trading session opens, potentially adding to the market volatility and providing insight into the future of US interest rates. The increasing US national debt also works against the US dollar. Although any market movements can be expected in this environment, the general situation does not favour the US currency at this stage. The euro is more likely to strengthen than the US dollar. EURUSD technical analysis On the EURUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range continues to develop above 1.0806. This level is considered crucial for the EURUSD pair today, 10 July 2024, with the market receiving support at this level. A rise to 1.0844 is expected. If this level breaks, the price could climb to the local target of 1.0888. After reaching this target, the price is expected to decline to 1.0840 (testing from above). Subsequently, another growth structure could follow, aiming for 1.0900. The Federal Reserve chair’s speech, rising US national debt, and technical indicators suggest a potential correction towards the 1.0888 and 1.0900 targets. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

CHF is under pressure: the SNB may lower the rate twice this year The USDCHF rate declined on Wednesday, 10 July 2024. The pair reacted weakly to the Federal Reserve chair’s speech, and the current USDCHF exchange rate is 0.8971. USDCHF trading key points SNB is poised for two rate cuts this year The Swiss regulator is clearly discontent with the rising national currency’s rate USDCHF price target: 0.8930 Fundamental analysis The USDCHF currency pair has closely approached the 0.8967 support level. Investors are analysing yesterday’s comments from Jerome Powell, stating that the Federal Reserve does not plan to lower interest rates until it is confident inflation is steadily moving towards 2%. However, Q1 data does not add to confidence. On the other hand, traders expect the Swiss National Bank to cut rates twice this year to withstand the franc’s potential strengthening. Although the SNB clearly expressed its discontent with the strength of the national currency, a decline in the rate should be limited. On the upside, should inflation rise unexpectedly, the central bank is ready to intervene in the currency market situation if necessary. Investors estimate the likelihood of another SNB rate cut in September at 50% as Switzerland’s recent consumer price index report fell short of expectations again. This may significantly support the US dollar against the franc. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rise ahead of the Federal Reserve chair’s speech Gold prices are rising on Tuesday, 9 July 2024, partially recouping Monday’s losses. The 2,350 level serves as strong support. Today, investors are focused on the upcoming report by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in the US Congress. Last week’s economic data showed weakness in the US employment market, with the unemployment rate reaching the highest level in the past 2.5 years and wage growth slowing to a three-year low. These indicators have significantly increased expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Markets currently estimate the likelihood of a September interest rate reduction at 77%, with another cut following in December. Powell’s speeches to the Senate on Tuesday and the House of Representatives on Wednesday will likely provide investors with insights into the Federal Reserve’s further actions. Additionally, crucial inflation data is due Thursday, which may impact markets. Any hint of rising rate cut expectations may boost gold prices again. XAUUSD technical analysis The price of gold remains above the upper boundary of a triangle pattern, with the target for the pattern completion at 2,450 USD. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 9 July 2024, suggests bullish momentum to 2,393. A rebound from the support level will provide an additional signal for a price rise. It is worth noting that the previous testing of this line pushed the price up by over 3%. A price decline below the 2,340 level can invalidate the bullish scenario. Such movement will indicate a breakout below the lower boundary of the ascending channel, followed by a further fall to 2,315. Gold prices are climbing, driven by the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and reinforced by the weak US employment market data. The XAUUSD technical analysis points to bullish momentum, with the first target at 2,393. Read more - XAUUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

USDCAD finds equilibrium, but the Canadian dollar remains strong Investors in the USDCAD pair are assessing the latest statistics and forecasts. The Bank of Canada’s actions will determine further movements. USDCAD trading key points The market is considering Canada’s employment market statistics The Bank of Canada may lower interest rates at every meeting until the end of 2024 USDCAD price targets: 1.3696, 1.3600, 1.3530, and 1.3473 Fundamental analysis The Canadian dollar has stabilised against the US dollar after strengthening markedly in July. The USDCAD pair is hovering around 1.3635. Investors were prompted to react to last week’s Canadian employment market statistics release. The unemployment rate rose 6.4% from 6.2% in June, with the economy losing approximately 1,400 jobs. Although this is not the largest possible loss, signs of economic weakness are increasing. The USD’s depreciation also contributed to the previous drop in the USDCAD pair. The slowing US economy is causing widespread concern, intensifying the focus on interest rates. The likelihood of a Bank of Canada interest rate cut at its July meeting is estimated at 60%. If this occurs, it will mark the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut, with markets anticipating a total reduction of 55 basis points by the end of the year. If the Bank of Canada lowers interest rates again on 24 July, the market will likely interpret this as a signal for further cuts at each subsequent meeting unless unforeseen events happen. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Wage growth in Japan accelerates The USDJPY rate is correcting on Monday amid the highest US employment rate since November 2021. The pair could not drop below the 160.20 support level. USDJPY trading key points Earnings in Japan reached their highest level since January US job growth decreased to the lowest seen since November 2021 USDJPY price targets: 160.00, 159.30, and 158.70 Fundamental analysis Earnings in Japan increased by 1.9% year-over-year in May 2024, marking the highest reading since January. However, the indicator is yet to catch up with inflation. As a result, real wages in the country continued to decrease for 26 consecutive months, preventing the BoJ from achieving the desired rise in prices and earnings and impeding the normalisation of monetary policy. The revised Q3 data on US job growth may negatively impact the dollar-to-yen exchange rate. In June, the unemployment rate reached its highest level since November 2021. Traders expect the first Federal Reserve interest rate reduction in September, followed by further quarterly cuts to a final rate of 3.25-3.50% Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

EURUSD remains elevated but is not too high The EURUSD pair continues its ascent. However, the euro faces risks due to the French political situation. The EURUSD pair appears relatively expensive, hovering at 1.0828 on Monday. Although US nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 in June, exceeding expectations of 191,000, the data fell short of May readings. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.4%. As expected, average hourly earnings in June expanded by 0.3% m/m following a 0.4% increase in May. The market viewed the statistical data as soft, heightening expectations of a September US Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which pressured the USD position. However, the euro also has reservations. The French election results created uncertainty about the country’s financial prospects. The left-wing alliance may have received an unexpected number of votes, creating challenging conditions for forming the French parliament. EURUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, EURUSD received support at 1.0806. A consolidation range has practically formed around this level, which is considered crucial for the EURUSD pair today, 8 July 2024. Breaking above the range will open the potential for a growth wave to the local target of 1.0900. After reaching this target, the price is expected to fall to 1.0840 (testing from above). Subsequently, another growth structure could develop, aiming for 1.0944 The EURUSD pair remains elevated, but risks are mounting. Technical indicators point to a potential further correction to the 1.0840, 1.0900, and 1.0944 targets. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

NZD has reached new weekly highs, driven by the weak US dollar The NZDUSD pair has risen for the fourth consecutive day, driven by the US dollar's weakness. The NZDUSD pair rises for the fourth consecutive day, reaching 0.6116. The New Zealand dollar gains ground due to the US dollar's weakness. The USD previously declined after the release of the ADP employment data in the US private sector and amid decreasing business activity in the services sector. These factors strengthened the market view that the Federal Reserve will reduce borrowing costs by the end of 2024. The US dollar fell, giving other currencies a chance to rise. At its previous meeting, the Federal Reserve noted an inflation shift in the right direction but believed prices were not moving fast enough to revise interest rates. Some Federal Reserve monetary policymakers stress the importance of being patient and consistent when making interest rate decisions. Others believe that it is time to raise rates as inflation is rising. NZDUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, NZDUSD has corrected towards 0.6128. The market is forming a consolidation range around 0.6115, which could extend up to 0.6134 today, 5 July 2024. Once the price reaches this level, a new decline wave is expected to start, aiming for 0.6090. Breaking above this level will open the potential for a decline to 0.6040, potentially continuing to 0.6023, the estimated target. The New Zealand dollar is strengthening, supported by the weakness of the US currency. The NZDUSD technical analysis suggests the completion of the correction and the beginning of a new decline wave to the 0.6090 and 0.6040 targets. Read more - NZDUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

Gold (XAUUSD) is strengthening ahead of the nonfarm payrolls release Gold price is steadily rising, with market participants focusing on today's US employment market data – nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. XAUUSD trading key points Current trend: gold is steadily rising after reaching a daily resistance level at 2,368 USD Market focus: today, market participants focus on US employment market data – nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate Price dynamics: XAUUSD quotes are consolidating slightly below the 2,368 USD level during the European trading session Fundamental analysis Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 190,000, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4%. Following the release of US employment market statistics, volatility in XAUUSD quotes may surge. Depending on the upcoming data, they might continue their growth to new local highs or correct downwards following their previous rise. Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website. Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team

EURUSD has risen significantly, and statistics have nothing to do with it Risk appetite is pushing up the EURUSD pair. US statistics came out mixed, providing no clear signals. The EURUSD pair has risen markedly over the last two sessions and stabilised at 1.0785 on Thursday. Yesterday, the market had a plethora of macro statistics to consider, which have been factored into prices overall. The first signals about the state of the employment market have been received and analysed: the ADP number of jobs in the US private sector increased by 150,000 in June compared to the forecasted 163,000 and the previous 152,000, providing a neutral signal. Let us see what Friday’s NFP release will bring. The services PMI appears uneven. The official PMI report showed a decrease to 48.8 points in June from 53.8 points in May, a warning signal. At the same time, Markit observations reflected an increase to 55.3 in June from the previous 54.8. Readings over 50.0 points indicate improvement and expansion. EURUSD technical analysis On the H4 chart, EURUSD has corrected to 1.0815. Today, 4 July 2024, a consolidation range could form below this level. With a downward breakout of the range, a new decline wave might start, aiming for 1.0730, a crucial level for this wave. Once the price reaches this level, it could correct to 1.0777 (testing from below). Subsequently, the decline structure might develop, targeting 1.0677 and potentially continuing to 1.0630. Risk appetite supports the EUR position. Technical indicators for today’s EURUSD forecast point to a further decline to the 1.0680, 1.0600, and 1.0555 targets. Read more - EURUSD Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team