Jump to content

Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS


Anna FBS

Recommended Posts

Market News

6 June 2014

 

NFP: forecasts of the banks

 

http://i1046.photobucket.com/albums/b466/rikicool/NFP_06Juni2014_zps18542b82.jpg

What do the banks say?

 

Goldman Sachs: +210K, 6.5%, low market impact

 

Societe Generale: +240K, 6.2%, higher USD/JPY

 

Bank of America: +225K, 6.5%,

 

Barclays: + 225K, 6.3% (consensus: 6.4%), supporting the USD. A positive job creation surprise together with healthy wage growth would be the most USD positive outcome against all currencies. In contrast, a less inflationary report would only be USD positive against low-yielding currencies.

 

Credit Suisse: +185K, 6.4%, the sustainability of any knee-jerk move may well come down to whether or not there is any evidence of wage inflation in today’s data.

 

Watch Average Hourly Earnings (consensus: 0.2%; previous: 0.0%).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Market News

 

June 6th: American session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/america1.png

 

Tatiana Norkina, an analyst at FBS

 

NFP data for the last month was not quite so surprising, about the expected level. Number of non-agricultural sector employees of the U.S. economy increased by 217 thousand, while analysts suggested it to be increased by 214 thousand. It strengthened U.S. dollar a little, which moved up to the mark of 80.50, showing a gain of +0.15% today. Major U.S. stock indices are located in the green zone, they added 0.40%.

 

The currency pair EUR/USD fell to 1.3620 after the daily high in 1.3675. Pound slips to support $1.6775. It should be noted that the GBP/USD still checked resistance at 1.6840 today. Pair USD/CHF, hold above 0.8910, recovers near 0.8940. But USD/JPY felt support in 102.10 - here is the lower boundary of Ichimoku cloud at one-hour graph.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1334

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Market News

 

June 9: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/asian1.png

 

Asian shares rose after data on Japanese growth, US employment and Chinese exports improved the outlook for the global economy. MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.15%.

 

USD/JPY is little changed in the 102.50 zone. Japan reported a smaller current-account surplus than economists predicted, reducing the currency’s status as a haven. At the same time, Japanese final Q1 GDP was revised up from 1.5% to 1.6%.

 

Commodity currencies are in demand on Monday, inspired by the Chinese trade data over the weekend (trade surplus 35.9B vs. expected 22.6B) and the upside revision of the Japanese GDP data. AUD/USD is testing the Friday’s high at $0.9360 to the upside. The RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will hold a speech today at 16:00 GMT. NZD/USD rose to $0.8520, but remains below the Friday’s peak of $0.8555.

 

EUR/USD is trading just below resistance at $1.3650. German and French banks are closed for a holiday. GBP/USD is tradinginthe $1.6800 area.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1336

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Market News

 

Key option levels (June 9)

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3550, $1.3600 (large), $1.3650 (large), $1.3700;

 

GBP/USD: $1.6755, $1.6805;

 

USD/JPY: 102.00 (large), 102.30, 102.50/55 (large), 102.70/75 (large);

 

USD/CHF: 0.8975, 0.9000;

 

AUD/USD: $0.9335, $0.9400;

 

USD/CAD: 1.0915 (large), 1.0925, 1.0955;

 

EUR/JPY: 139.00 (large), 140.80.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1337

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Market News

9 June 2014

 

CFTC: USD longs on the rise

 

Here are the essentials of the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on June 6 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a week ended on June 3.

 

According to the report, the value of the USD net long position increased from $7.4 billion as of May 27 to $11.4 billion as of June 3 (+$3.95 billion). The US dollar positions stay on the bullish side for a fourth straight week and are now at their highest level since early March.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/June/09/Cot-Values.png

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/June/09/cot-standings.png

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1338

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Market News

 

June 9: American Session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/america1.png

 

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

The index of the U.S. dollar in the first day of the week shows a significant strength, increasing by almost 0.30%, after the hold above 80.30 support. Trading in the stock markets opened as positively: DJIA now adds about 0.10%, and the S&P500 - 0.7%. The speech of the FRS member Rosengren is expected a little later.

 

In currency markets, American dollar strengthened against major world currencies. Thus, EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.3590 support after a failed test of 1.3670 resistance. GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.6790 powerful level, which will be difficult to conquer for bears. USD/CHF pair rebounded with confidence to 0.8970 resistance; an attempt to consolidate above does not rules out. Dollar against the yen looks a bit weak. After the morning reduce of USD/JPY to 102.35 support, the pair returned to earlier levels and storms 102.60. Further strengthening of bullish temper is possible.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1340

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Market News

 

June 10: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/asian1.png

 

Commodity currencies gained some ground today. Australia and China released a bunch of important data in the session, but the market impact was limited. China May inflation came above the forecast at 2.5%. Australia NAB business confidence rose to 7 in May, the prior reading was also revised from 6 to 7. AUD/USD pushed up to $0.9370 in the Asian session. NZD/USD strengthened to $0.8510, but stays below the recent $0.8555 high. Gold rose above $1250.

 

USD/JPY slid to 101.27. The pair’s volatility is low ahead of the Bank of Japan’s meeting later this week. Japanese tertiary industry activity fell by 5.4%. Japanese Nikkei 225 is down by 0.8%.

 

EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3590 area. GBP/USD is trading just above $1.6800.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1342

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Market News

 

June 11: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/asian1.png

 

Asian shares outside Japan fell from a 3-year high as investors weighed valuations following a 4-day rally and after the World Bank cuts its global economic growth forecast for this year from 3,2% to 2.8%. Japanese Nikkei 225 rose by 0.5% aided by MSCI’s decision to remove South Korea and Taiwan indexes from its review list for reclassification to developed markets, keeping them in the emerging markets classification. According to Reuters, there had been speculation Tokyo equities would take the brunt of rebalancing if Korean and Taiwanese shares were reclassified to developed markets.

 

USD/JPY slid to 102.22. Japanese Quarterly Business Sentiment Index (BSI) survey results for Q2 register big falls. AUD/USD rose to $0.9390. Westpac Consumer Sentiment improved. NZD/USD rose to $0.8556. The kiwi was a solid gainer ahead of the RBNZ monetary policy meeting.

EUR/USD tested $1.3520 before returning to $1.3540. GBP/USD dipped to $1.6738 before returning to $1.6755.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1345

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Market News

11 June 2014

 

US yields recovered

 

US Treasury yields have reversed decisively higher with 10-year paper paying 2.646% compared to a trough of 2.402% 2 weeks ago.

 

According to RBS, the decline in 10-year yields is over and they will stay above 2.80% in the coming months.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/June/11/10%20year%20yields.png

 

US 10-year Treasury yields (Bloomberg)

 

The prospect of higher yields supports US dollar. The dollar index (DXY) held at 80.811 from May’s low at 78.906.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/June/11/dxy.png[/ig]

 

US dollar index (Bloomberg)

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1346

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Market News

 

Key option levels (June 11)

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3500 (large), $1.3525 (large), $1.3575, $1.3600, $1.3625 (large);

 

USD/JPY: 102.05 (large), 102.25 (large), 102.65 (large), 103.00;

 

USD/CAD: 1.0900;

 

EUR/JPY: 139.00, 140.00 (large);

 

EUR/GBP: 0.8050, 0.8080, 0.8115;

 

EUR/CHF: 1.2180/85, 1.2200.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1347

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Market News

 

June 11th: American Session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/america1.png

 

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

U.S. dollar today is a little weaker compared with yesterday. The dollar index was down to 80.70 and is currently losing about 0.05%. At the same time the major stock indexes unexpectedly fell sharply at the opening. So, DJIA has decreased by 0.50%, while the S&P500 - 0.40%.

 

That is why the currency pair EUR/USD today is in a sideways mode, in yesterday's support of 1.3530. Today GBP/USD pair is supported by positive data on the labor market. Because of this the rate rose to 1.6800 figure, but the bulls are not yet configured to overcome the current level. Currency pair USD/CHF remains under the 0.9000 figure, it supports the level of 0.8985 below. But USD/JPY pair has gone under the figure of 102.00, after yesterday's consolidation below 102.45 mark.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1348

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Market News

 

June 12: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/asian1.png

 

Asian shares fell, with the regional benchmark index set for its biggest loss in almost a month, after US equities declined. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.4%. Nikkei 225 fell 0.8%.

 

USD/JPY is trading in the 102 area after dipping to 101.85 yesterday. Yen traded near a 2-week high ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision tomorrow.

 

AUD/USD recovered back into the $0.9380 area following a dip to $0.9350. Australian labor market figures came out mixed. Employment in the country fell by 4.8K in May versus the expected 10.3K increase. The employment rate remained unchanged at 5.8% versus the forecasted increase to 5.9%.

 

Kiwi dollar was the main market mover today. NZD/USD jumped by 150 pips to $0.8650 on the RBNZ rate hike announcement. The interest rate was raised by 25 bps to 3.25% along with market expectations. Governor Wheeler said the inflationary pressures still exist, raising market expectations for further hikes in the coming months.

 

EUR/USD edged up to $1.3645. GBP/USD rose to $1.6800.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1350

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Market News

12 June 2014

 

RBNZ raised rate to 3.25%

 

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced an interest rate hike on Thursday for the third time in 2014, lifting the cash rate by 0.25 to 3.25%.

 

New Zealand's economic expansion "has considerable momentum" and it is "important that inflation expectations remain contained and that interest rates return to a more neutral level," Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler said in a statement after the meeting.

 

Mr. Wheeler reiterated that the "speed and extent" to which the cash rate will need to rise will "depend on economic and financial data, and its implications for inflationary pressures." The central bank's forecasts indicate it expects to raise rates by around another 100 bps over the next 12 months.

 

That's how ANZ economists comment the current RBNZ policy: "We think the Reserve Bank now needs a reason to pause, rather than a reason to hike and attention will turn to the currency (it has spiked) and Q2 CPI".

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1351

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Market News

12 June 2014

 

BoJ meeting: what to expect?

 

The Bank of Japan will announce its policy meeting decision on Friday. The regulator is widely expected to refrain from adding stimulus this month. All 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the central bank to keep policy unchanged with 60-70 trillion yen QE per year. 9% of the economists expect additional monetary stimulus in July, down from 38% in the previous survey.

 

Japanese inflation data and the Q1 growth numbers persuaded the investors that the economic recovery remains on track without additional stimulus. Societe Generale analysts go even further, pointing that on the previous meeting on April 30 the Bank revised growth forecasts down without any hints on stimulus to come.

 

The Bank of Japan may slightly raise its outlook for the overseas economies due to receding geopolitical risks from Ukraine, rises in China's May exports and a surge in U.S. imports. This could signal that the bank remains confident that sluggish exports will pick up and help Japan's economy achieve a sustained recovery.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1352

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Market News

 

June 12: American session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/america1.png

 

Tatiana Norkina, an analyst at FBS

 

Negative statistics from the U.S. has given a negative effect to the American dollar. According to published data, in the last week the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased to 317 thousand, against expectations of 310 thousand. In addition, retail sales increased only by 0.3% last month, while analysts predicted a positive trend to 0.6%. As a result, the U.S. dollar index fell to around 80.70, after losing at the moment about 0.10%.

The second day of fall and stock indices: DJIA - 0.25%, while the S & P500 - 0.35%.

There are no strong movements in currency markets. Euro is steady against the dollar - the currency pair EUR/USD grew to 1.3540 after testing 1.3510 support. GBP/USD is rising again, supported by positive data on the housing market. Daily maximum was formed at 1.6840. Currency pair USD/CHF remains under 0.9000 figure, but with the support 0.8985/0.8990. Pair USD/JPY, apparently, could not resist over 102.00 - bears continue the offensive.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1353

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Market News

 

June 13: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/asian1.png

 

MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of stocks erased declines, with oil producers surging on the highest crude prices in eight months as violence in Iraq spurred supply concerns.

 

USD/JPY rose from 101.70 to 102.00. The Bank of Japan left its policy unchanged, but the policymakers upgraded their assessment of overseas markets. Now investors are waiting for Kuroda’s press conference (06:00 GMT).

 

Commodity currencies retraced lower in the Asian trade following the yesterday’s rally. AUD/USD weakened to $0.9410 before recovering to $0.9415. NZD/USD corrected from the $0.8700 resistance to $0.8665. New Zealand business manufacturing index lowered from 54.4 to 52.7. Gold is trading under a slight bearish pressure around $1271.8.

 

EUR/USD is trading on the upside in the $1.3550 area. GBP/USD rose to $1.6970. Fitch affirmed the UK’s AA+ with stable outlook. Bank of England’s Governor Carney says interest rates could rise sooner than markets expects.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1354

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Market News

13 June 2014

 

Euro's falling again

 

EUR/USD has made a U-turn down, while USD/CHF reversed up.

 

Resistance at $1.3580 proved to be too strong for the bulls and it took minutes for the bears to retrace the recent bounce. Bigger than expected trade surplus didn’t help the single currency.

 

Support is at $1.3510, $1.3500, $1.3476. Resistance is at $1.3580, $1.3600 and $1.3620.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/June/13/eurusdh1.png

Chart. H1 EUR/USD

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1355

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Market News

 

June 13th: American Session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/america1.png

 

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

The dollar index recovered today after two days of falling before the data from the United States. However, the statistics showed a decrease in the producer price index for the last month to 0.2%. Analysts had expected an increase of 0.1%. This put pressure on the American, which is in the green zone (+0.08%), suspending growth slightly below 80.70. On major U.S. stock exchanges, there is some encouragement: DJIA and S&P500 add 0.30% each.

 

Against this background, the currency pair EUR/USD is in support of 1.3530 again and USD/CHF pair raised to 0.9000 figure. GBP/USD pair is consolidating in 1.6950 area after the explosive growth provoked yesterday by evening statements of Mark Carney about the imminent increase in interest rates. USD/JPY pair has returned to the figure of 102.00, sensing support at 101.60.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1356

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

 

June 16: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/asian1.png

 

USD/JPY slid to 101.72. Yen strengthened as violence in Iraq boosted speculation that oil supplies will be disrupted and increased the appeal of haven assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.2%. Japanese Nikkei 225 lost more than 1%.

 

AUD/USD is testing the $0.9400 resistance to the upside. The pair holds below the last week’s high of $0.9440, however. The RBA Assistant Governor Kent highlighted that the Australian dollar still remains high despite the commodity falls. NZD/USD rose to $0.8690, getting closer to the Thursday’s peak of $0.8700. New Zealand Westpac consumer sentiment lowered from 121.7 to 121.2 in Q2.

 

EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3540 area. GBP/USD edged up to $1.6980.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1357

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

16 June 2014

 

German growth to be weak in Q2

 

According to the Bundesbank monthly report from June 16, German economic growth could be lower than everage in the first half of the year. After a very strong start to the year real GDP should increase only slightly in Q2, while the Q3 growth should be much stronger.

 

Bundesbank raised German 2014 GDP forecasts from 1.7% previous to 1.9% a week ago. Inflation forecast was lowered from 1.3% to 1.1%.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1358

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

16 June 2014

 

Geopolitical risks dominate the markets

 

Currency markets entered the new week in a risk-negative sentiment. Geopolitical risks increased on the back of social unrest in Iraq. What’s more, the breakdown of gas talks between Ukraine and Gazprom added to market concerns. As a result, market demand on the safe Japanese yen remains strong.

 

Last week the crude oil prices surged to the levels unseen since autumn 2013 under threat of supply disruptions. If the trend remains in place, risk appetite and the US equity markets could suffer.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/June/16/oil.png

Chart: Investing.com

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1360

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

 

June 16: American Session

 

http://www.fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/america1.png

 

Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

 

The U.S. dollar index keeps weakening even after the publication of positive statistics on industrial production in the country, and is currently losing about 0.30%. The major stock indexes are also in the red zone: DJIA - -0.20%, S&P500 - -0.15%.

 

At the same time, the eurobulls have become pretty active, recovering the EUR/USD pair to the Friday's high of 1.3575. The GBP/USD pair, after testing the 1.7000 figure, continues consolidating under it. The dollar has weakend against the franc as well: the USD/CHF currency pair is sliding to the 0.8970 support. As for USD/JPY, the bears are active again, having lowered the rate to the 101.80 mark.

 

More:

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1361

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

 

June 17: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/asian1.png

 

Most Asian stock markets fell on Tuesday as the deepening conflict in Iraq and a gas dispute between Ukraine and Russia sapped investors' appetite for riskier assets. China’s stocks fell after foreign direct investment in the country unexpectedly declined. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.3%. Japanese Nikkei bucked the trend with rise of a 0.3%, though it was still down on the week so far. USD/JPY is trading on the upside trying to overcome the 102.00 level.

 

Demand for the commodity currencies was down. AUD/USD fell by almost 50 pips to $0.9350 following the RBA policy minutes release. Australian regulator revealed a slightly more bearish outlook for the national economy and has once again reiterated that the currency is high by historical standards. NZD/USD tracked the AUD’s moves, slipping to $0.8650, but later has recovered some ground. Gold extends the decline for a second day in a row.

 

EUR/USD slid to $1.3555. GBP/USD dipped below $1.6960.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1362

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

17 June 2014

 

IMF cut US 2014 forecast

 

The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for US 2014 economic growth this year by 0.8% to 2%, citing a harsh winter, a struggling housing market and weak international demand for the country's products. Economists say the Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate low even longer than investors expect.

 

The fund maintained its 3% GDP outlook for 2015, saying a meaningful economic rebound is on the way. Still, the IMF said the US officials must do more to stimulate growth in the near term.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1363

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

 

June 17th: American Session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/america1.png

 

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

The U.S. dollar strengthened sharply today, after the publication of statistics on inflation. Consumer prices in the past month rose by 0.4%, against expectations of 0.2%. As a result, the U.S. dollar index jumped to around 80.75 mark and currently adds about 0.25% to yesterday's values. At the same time, not so strongly encouraging data on the housing market were published.

 

Under the conditions of stated mixed data EUR/USD pair stopped falling in 1.3540 area. GBP/USD pair is corrected in 1.6950 area, after a morning testing of 1.6980 resistance. Currency pair USD/CHF broke the powerful level of 0.8990, recovering slightly above the figure of 0.9000. The yen weakened against the dollar: USD/JPY soared to 102.20, bulls show their confidence.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1364

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...