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April 24: Asian session

 

http://www.fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/asian1.png

 

Asian stocks fell after an unexpected drop in US home sales signaled a housing recover in the world’s largest economy is running out of steam. MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.3%. Nikkei 225 is down by 0.95%.

 

USD/JPY declined to 102.25, but is above yesterday’s low at 102.16. Yen held its first gain in nine days versus the dollar on speculation data tomorrow will show Tokyo inflation quickened the most in more than two decades, dimming prospects the Bank of Japan will expand stimulus.

 

New Zealand dollar was the mover, jumping on the RBNZ meeting outcome. As it was widely expected, RBNZ announced a rate hike by 0.25% to 3.00%. Regulator showed that more hikes are to come, but the timing remains uncertain. NZD/USD rose by more than 50 pips, touching $0.8635. AUD/USD consolidates in the $0.9285/9300 range. Gold slowed the downside over the past 2 days, recovering some ground to $1285.5.

 

EUR/USD rose to $1.3825, but is below yesterday’s peak at $1.3854. Euro remained higher before a report today forecast to show a gauge of German business conditions climbed to a 2-year high. GBP/USD edged up a bit to $1.6790.

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Draghi: high EUR hurts the economy

 

EUR/USD fell by more than 40 pips to $1.3790 as the ECB President Mario Draghi flagged the bank could make asset purchases to fight the threat of deflation. Draghi added that negative deposit rates remain an option for the government.

 

The ECB head admitted that a strong euro reflects return of confidence in euro zone, but a higher euro could derail euro zone recovery.

 

http://www.fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/People/image-291962-galleryV9-itia1.jpg

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Apr. 24: American Session

 

http://www.fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/america1.png

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

Orders for durable goods in the U.S. rose by 2.6% last month instead of the forecast of 2.0%. It caused the dollar index to jump to the highest mark in the last few days 80.05. However, the subsequent unemployment data (number of applications for unemployment benefits last week rose to 329 thousand, instead of the expected 310 thousand) had a negative impact on the market: the dollar index fell to around 79.90 and is currently losing about 0.10%. Stock markets also opened with a reduction. S&P500 is losing about 0.15% and the DJIA - about 0.05%.

 

In currency markets volatility increased during the occurrence of specified data. Thus, the pair EUR/USD had fallen to around 1.3790 mark from 1.3830 after another speech of Draghi, who reiterated the reluctance to see an expensive euro, but at the moment it newly recovered to the area of 1.3815. Currency pair GBP/USD tested the 1.6770 support and rose to the 1.6800 figure.

 

USD/CHF pair fell to 0.8820 support after forming the maximum in the area of 0.8855 today. The pair USD/JPY is testing yesterday support 102.10-102.15 again, after the jump to 102.60.

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April 25: Asian session

 

http://www.fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/asian1.png

 

USD/JPY rose to 102.50, but then returned by 20 pips lower. Japanese yen remained near the strongest level in a week against the dollar as tensions between Russia and Ukraine increased demand for safety. US Secretary of State John Kerry warned that Russia was running out of time to comply with an accord aimed at de-escalating the situation in its neighbor. Tokyo core inflation came at 2.7% the most in more than two decades, though was slightly lower than the forecast of 2.8%. Asian stocks fell, MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped by 0.4%.

 

Commodity currencies have regained some ground in Asia. It was a holiday in New Zealand and Australia, so there is basically no news from the region. AUD/USD found support at $0.9250 and recovered to $0.9280. Aussie is consolidating at the lower border of the April bearish channel. NZD/USD met buyers at $0.8545 and rebounded to $0.8570. Gold consolidates at $1293,3.

 

EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3830 area. GBP/USD is just above $1.6800.

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Key option levels (Apr. 25)

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3775, $1.3800;

 

GBP/USD: $1.6600;

 

USD/JPY: 101.00 (large), 101.50 (large), 102.00 (large), 102.15 (large), 102.55-65 (large), 102.70 (large), 103.00 (large), 103.10 (large);

 

AUD/USD: $0.9280, $0.9300, $0.9335 (large);

 

USD/CAD: 1.0900, 1.0915, 1.0930, 1.0940, 1.0950, 1.0965, 1.1000, 1.1095, 1.1100 (large);

 

AUD/JPY: 95.00;

 

EUR/GBP: 0.8300.

 

http://www.fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/flatline.jpg

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Apr. 25: American Session

 

http://www.fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/america1.png

 

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

 

 

U.S. dollar today looked weaker against most world currencies before the publication of the index of consumer sentiment according to the University of Michigan. However, the data were better than expected - 84.1 vs. expected 83.00 . This allowed a little strengthen the dollar index, but it is still in the red zone, losing about 0.08 %. Stock trading opened in a very serious disadvantage: S&P500 losing about 0.52%, and the DJIA - 0.60%.

 

EUR/USD pair reached up to around 1.3850 mark, but with the arrival on the market of U.S. players it reduced in the area of 1.3830. Currency pair GBP/USD is consolidating just above the 1.6800 figure after testing important level of 1.6825.

 

USD/CHF pair shows weakness the third day, falling today to 0.8800 figure. But USD JPY dropped below 102.00 figure.

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http://www.fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/asian1.png

 

April 28: Asian session

 

Japanese and Chinese stocks fell on Monday amid increasing tension in Ukraine, which pressure the risk appetite and support the safe-haven assets. China President Xi Jinping disappointed the markets, saying economy doesn’t need additional monetary stimulus.

 

USD/JPY has recovered a little, strengthening to 102.25. Nikkei 225 lost almost 1% in the session despite the upbeat Japan retail sales data. AUD/USD strengthened to $0.9305, facing resistance there. NZD/USD consolidates around $0.8575. Gold met sellers at $1306.4. EUR/USD dipped to $1.3815 before recovering to $1.3835. GBP/USD is testing the Friday highs around $1.6830.

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Forex Analytics

 

EUR/USD: wave analysis (Apr. 28)

 

Authored by Roman Petuchov

 

Weekly. The pair is now forming a horizontal triangle. The question is where the bullish corrective wave [D] ends.

http://cdn.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/2014/April/28/eurusd1.jpg

 

Daily. Wave[D] is a complex corrective wave with (y) of [D] being a double zigzag. The second zigzag is now coming to an end.

 

http://cdn.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/2014/April/28/eurusd2.jpg

 

H4. We expect the wave (5) to be built in the nearest future. After that the market will reverse to the downside.

 

http://cdn.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/2014/April/28/eurusd3.jpg

 

More:

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/1456

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GBP/USD: wave analysis (Apr. 28)

 

Authored by Roman Petuchov

 

Weekly. The pair has been forming a rising impulse channel for more than a year.

http://cdn.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/2014/April/28/gbpusd1.jpg

 

Daily. The market is now forming a corrective wave (IV).

http://cdn.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/2014/April/28/gbpusd2.jpg

 

H4. Corrective wave Đ’ seems to be complete. This week we expect a bearish move to begin.

http://cdn.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/2014/April/28/gbpusd3.jpg

 

More:

http://cdn.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/2014/April/28/gbpusd3.jpg

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USD/JPY: wave analysis (Apr. 28)

 

Daily. Final bullish impulse of (V) is now being formed.

http://cdn.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/2014/April/28/usdjpy1.jpg

 

H12. Corrective wave IV was a complex one. In our view, rising impulse V has already begun.

http://cdn.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/2014/April/28/usdjpy2.jpg

 

H4. We expect to see a new bullish trend after the corrective wave [2] will be over. However, this pair is not so evident these days. We'd better avoid trading on USD/JPY in the near term.

http://cdn.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/2014/April/28/usdjpy3.jpg

 

More:

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/1458

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AUD/USD: wave analysis (Apr. 28)

 

Weekly. Rising impulse [c] is about to begin.

http://cdn.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/2014/April/28/audusd1.jpg

 

Daily. Market is correcting to the downside in the wave (2).

http://cdn.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/2014/April/28/audusd2.jpg

 

H4. This week the pair will form a corrective bearish channel.

http://cdn.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/2014/April/28/audusd3.jpg

 

more:

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/1459

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April 29: Asian session

 

http://www.fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/asian1.png

Asian markets were mixed with investors trading cautiously. Concerns about Ukraine persist: US, EU, Canada and Japan announced fresh sanctions on Russian officials. US Federal Reserve starts a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday.

 

USD/JPY is trading in a tight 10-pips range around 102.50. Liquidity is thin on Tuesday as the Japanese market is closed due to public holidays. Bank of Japan will announce its policy decision on Wednesday.

 

Demand for commodity currencies is subdued. AUD/USD extended the decline, testing $0.9220 in early Asia. Falling iron ore prices keep on pressuring the Aussie. NZD/USD followed the AUD, weakening to $0.8520. New Zealand March trade balance came in line with expectations (920M), while the February reading was revised down to 793M.

 

EUR/USD strengthened to $1.3865, but remains below the yesterday’s $1.3880 peak. GBP/USD consolidates around $1.6815 after hitting a 4.5-year high yesterday. Markets are looking forward to the German CPI and the UK Q1 GDP in the European session.

 

More:

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1223

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T. Norkina: trade signals (Apr. 29)

 

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

GBP/USD: buy – 1.6820; stop – 1.6800; target1 – 1.6860; target2 – 1.6890.

 

USD/CHF: sell – 0.8790; stop – 0.8810; target1 – 0.8760; target2 – 0.8730.

 

http://www.fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/Currencies/MW-BM388_curren_ME_20131002183831.jpg

 

More:

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/1461

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Trade signals from Danske Bank (Apr. 29)

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

EUR/USD: Long at 1.3820 with a target of 1.3967 and a stop at 1.3809

 

USD/JPY: Buy at 102.32 with a target of 103.43 and a stop at 101.79

 

GBP/USD: Long at 1.6700 with a target of 1.6917 and a stop at 1.6740

 

USD/CHF: Short at 0.8835 with a target of 0.8715 and a stop at 0.8835

 

AUD/USD: Short at 0.9275 with a target of 0.9136 and a stop at 0.9325

 

USD/CAD: Long at 1.0970 with a target of 1.1078 and a stop at 1.0980

 

http://www.fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/138.jpg

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April 30: Asian session

 

http://www.fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/asian1.png

 

Asian markets traded mixed on Wednesday with the MSCI Asia Pacific index staying almost unchanged. Investors remain cautious before the FOMC monetary policy decision announcement in the US session and the US jobs data on Friday. Continuing tension in Ukraine continues weighting on the risk appetite.

 

USD/JPY slipped to 102.30. Yen strengthened as the Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged in line with the expectations. Bank’s CPI target remains on track, while the 2014 GDP forecast was downgraded from +1.4% to 1.1%. Japan industrial production came below the expectations. Nikkei 225 index added 0.11%.

 

Commodity currencies found buyers in the Asian session. AUD/USD strengthened to $0.9290, but still trades in the descending channel. NZD/USD touched $0.8875 earlier in the session and is now consolidating a little lower. Gold trades under pressure around $1292.5.

 

EUR/USD extends the yesterday’s drop, testing the $1.3800 support to the downside. GBP/USD is trading in the red, but holds slightly above the $1.6800 mark. Monday peak of $1.6855 remains unbeaten.

 

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http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1225

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Trade signals from Danske Bank (Apr. 30)

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

EUR/USD: Sell at 1.3825 with a target of 1.3762 and a stop at 1.3882

 

USD/JPY: Long at 102.60 with a target of 103.43 and a stop at 102.19

 

GBP/USD: Long at 1.6700 with a target of 1.6917 and a stop at 1.6740

 

USD/CHF: Buy at 0.8825 with a target of 0.8905 and a stop at 0.8770

 

AUD/USD: Short at 0.9275 with a target of 0.9136 and a stop at 0.9325

 

USD/CAD: Sell at 1.0986 with a target of 1.0858 and a stop at 1.1036

 

http://www.fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/138.jpg

 

More:

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/1463

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US GDP and the Fed in focus

 

Mark Jensen, FBS

 

Market volatility was pretty low at the beginning of the trading week: investors stayed cautious ahead of the news scheduled for the end of the week.

 

The US intrigue will be partially disclosed on Wednesday. Pay special attention to the nonfarm payrolls by ADP at 12:15 GMT. The April report is expected to show a solid 215K increase in private payrolls.

 

US will release its advance Q1 GDP (forecast: + 1.2%; Q4: revised down to 2.6%) at 12:30 GMT. The U.S. economy probably grew at the slowest pace in a year as the untypically cold winter weather lowered consumer and business confidence.

 

Later in the day FOMC will announce its monetary policy decision (18:00 GMT). The April meeting should provide few surprises: the QE taper is expected to continue at a pace of $10 billion. There will be no press conference or new projections in April. The market will likely focus on when interest rates might begin to rise and at what pace.

 

http://www.fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/Currencies/dollar-ichaz.jpg

 

More:

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1226

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Terrible US GDP

 

US published mixed statistics on Wednesday. Nonfarm payrolls by ADP came much better than expected: 220K versus forecasted 203K, March reading revised up to 209K.

 

However, the main event of the day was the US Q1 GDP. Data came out MUCH worse than expected: economy added only 0.1% vs. forecast 1.2% and 2.6% in Q4. EUR/USD jumped to $1.3870 on the news.

 

Waiting for the Fed monetary policy announcement at 18 GMT.

 

aZb7Nq2Px6I.jpg

 

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http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1228

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Apr. 30: American Session

 

http://www.fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/america1.png

 

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

U.S. dollar today began to weaken against many world currencies before the publication of the report on inflation in the Euro zone. According to statistical data for the last month inflation was only 0.7% , instead of the expected 0.8%. In the focus of attention of investors today was also the statistics from the U.S. Thus, according to ADP data, change in the number of working places in the non-agricultural sector was 220 thousand, against expectations of 210 thousand, however quarterly U.S. GDP growth showed only 0.1% instead of the projected 1.2%. A little later, Fed 's statement on interest rates is expected . Rates are expected to remain at the same levels of 0.25%.

 

U.S. dollar index is currently losing 0.30%. Stock markets - about zero.

 

In currency markets, there is a revival. The pair EUR/USD rebounded to around 1.3870 mark after testing 1.3790 support. And GBP/USD pair finally resumed growth and has established a new maximum in the area of 1.6870 today. Bulls continue to tread.

 

Currency pair USD/CHF plummeted to around 0.8790 mark. The dollar weakened and against the yen: USD/JPY fell to a level of 102.20.

 

More:

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1229

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May 1st: American session

 

http://www.fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/america1.png

 

Tatiana Norkina, an analyst at FBS

 

 

Statistical data on the U.S. economy was mixed today. So, weekly statistics on applications for unemployment benefits were much worse than expected: 344 thousand vs. 319 thousand. In the same time, personal expenses of Americans increased by 0.9 % instead of the expected growth of 0.6 %. This indicates a positive trend in the U.S. economy, which allowed to strengthen the dollar index. However, the main intrigue of the markets will persist until tomorrow, when it will be published non-farm payrolls for April. Very positive data is expected. Today, the percentage change of the dollar index is near zero. The stock market is also at zero level.

 

Currency pairs are waiting. Thus, the pair EUR/USD is consolidating in 1.3870, GBP/USD is again restored to the figure of 1.6900.

 

 

Currency para USD/CHF stopped at 0.8790 and USD/JPY slowly grew to 102.35 resistance.

 

More:

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1230

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May 5: Asian session

 

http://www.fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/asian1.png

Asian markets took a turn lower on Monday as the HSBC survey showed China manufacturing fell for a 4th month in a row. The final reading for the HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.1 in April vs. expected 48.4 (reading below 50 indicates contraction). Markets are now concerned that the second largest world economy is losing momentum. The risk sentiment was generally positive before the China figure came out: investors were inspired by the Friday’s US labor report (+288K vs. 216K expected). The increased tensions in Ukraine keep gold and bonds well bid. Japan, South Korea and Thailand markets are closed for a holiday today.

 

USD/JPY hit a two-week low of 101.85 as demand for the safe currencies increased. The pair lost more than 100 pips from the Friday’s peak of 103.02 hit on the strong US labor report.

 

Demand for the commodity currencies is subdued. AUD/USD opened the week with a bullish gap at $0.9285, dipped to $0.9250 later in the session and now recovered to $0.9275. Australia building approvals fell by 3.5% in March. Reserve Bank of Australia holds a policy meeting tomorrow. NZD/USD is trading under pressure around $0.8250. Gold opened with a gap up and hit to $1309.4 in Asia (highest since April 15).

 

EUR/USD consolidates in the $1.3885/65 range after a volatile Friday, while GBP/USD hovers in the $1.6885/68 band. UK markets are also closed.

 

More:

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1231

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CFTC: USD shorts declined

 

Here are the essentials of the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on May 2 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a week ended on April 29. According to the report, large traders and speculators decreased their overall bearish bets of the US dollar from $1.6 billion on April 22 to $0.7 billion on April 29. The USD position has been on the bearish side for the past three weeks.

 

http://cdn.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/2014/May/5/cot-levels.png

 

http://cdn.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/2014/May/5/cot-standings.png

 

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1232

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Opinion: US labor data not so good

5 May 2014

 

According to UBS, even though the US employment figures were much better than expected, the drop in unemployment rate was mainly due to falling participation, showing the continued slack in the US labor market. Economists don't think the figures will have a long-playing positive effect for the market.

 

“The US labor market report showed on Friday, that hiring in the US has been much stronger in April than markets had expected. 288K jobs had been created in April, compared to a 210K expected", analysts remind. "Also the unemployment rate dropped from 6.7% in March to 6.3% in April. However, a lot of this drop came on the back of a falling participation. Also wage growth has been flat, showing the continued slack in the US labor market”.

 

http://www.fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/Flags/us-debt-problem.gif

 

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1233

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May 5: American Session

http://www.fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/america1.png

 

Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

 

Optimistic data on business activity in the U.S. over the past month has supported the U.S. dollar index today, which has managed to keep over the 79.50 support. Stock markets, on the contrary, have started the week with a significant gapdown but are trying to make up the losses at the moment. Thus, DJIA is losing slightly less than in the morning - around 0.32%, S&P500 - 0.12%.

 

Currency markets are consolidating after the Friday's rally. The EUR/USD pair has beed trading under 1.3880 all day long, while GBP/USD - in the 1.6860 area.

 

The range of trading for the USD/CHF pair has reached only 10 pips today: 0.8765-0.8775. At the moment, the bulls are trying to break forward. The USD/JPY pair has set a new low for the past two weeks, dropping to the 101.85 mark, but oversaleness are preventing the bears from winning total control over the market.

 

More:

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1234

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May 6: Asian session

 

http://www.fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/asian1.png

 

Asian stock markets were mixed on Tuesday with MSCI Asia Pacific index adding 0.1%. Trading volumes remain low as markets in Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea are closed for holidays. Yesterday the markets were cheered up by the strong US ISM manufacturing PMI. USD/JPY weakened from the session high of 102.20 to 102.00.

 

AUDUSD jumped up from $0.9283 to $0.9316, but failed to fix at these highs. The Reserve Bank of Australia left monetary policy unchanged and came with a neutral statement. The bank, however, has once again referred to the overvalued currency. Australia trade surplus came below the forecast. NZD/USD touched $0.8715. Gold consolidates around $1309 – slightly below the yesterday’s 3-week high of $1315.

 

EUR/USD consolidates below the yesterday’s high of $1.3885, while GBP/USD touched $1.6895. Euro zone and Great Britain will release service PMIs later in the session.

 

More:

http://globalforextalk.com/forums/showthread.php/14444-Company-news?p=49412#post49412

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