Jump to content

Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS


Anna FBS

Recommended Posts

MARKET NEWS

 

June 18: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/asian1.png

 

USD/JPY rose to 102.30. US dollar held gains versus most of its major peers before the Federal Reserve announces a policy decision today as signs of US economic growth fuel speculation policy makers are moving toward raising interest rates. Asian stocks outside of Japan fell. MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index slipped 0.15%, while Japanese Nikkei added about 1%. The Bank of Japan’s minutes showed no major surprises, with members unanimously voting to keep increasing the monetary base at an annual pace of about 60-70 trillion yen.

 

AUD/USD consolidates in a tight $0.9325/45 range following the yesterday’s sharp decline. NZD/USD hovers around $0.8660. New Zealand current account surplus came out in line with forecasts at 1.41B (prior: a deficit of 1.51B). Gold trades under bearish pressure around $1267.

 

EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3546 area after yesterday’s decline from $1.3570. GBP/USD is flat at $1.6960.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1365

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

MARKET NEWS

 

Key option levels (June 18)

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3500 (large), $1.3540, $1.3575/85 (large), $1.3640;

 

GBP/USD: $1.6915;

 

USD/JPY: 101.40/50 (large), 102.30, 102.60;

 

AUD/USD: $.9340/50 (large), $0.9400 (large), $0.9450, $0.9500 (large);

 

USD/CAD: 1.0800 (large), 1.0870;

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7975, 0.8075.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1366

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

18 June 2014

 

Bank of England: meeting minutes

 

GBP/USD spiked to $1.7002, but then slid to the $1.6940 area.

 

The Bank of England’s June 5 meeting showed that the Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously in favor of maintaining the interest rate at 0.5% and the program of asset purchases steady at 375B pounds.

 

The MPC expressed surprise with the low probability of a 2014 rate rise being priced in. They also stressed that “the more gradual the intended rise in bank rate, the earlier it might be necessary to start tightening policy.”

 

The MPC said that the economic recovery in the UK was gaining momentum and that the strong pound was helping to push down inflation. They added, however, that “the weakness in inflation elsewhere, especially the euro area, contained information about underlying global inflationary pressures that might yet become evident in the United Kingdom.”

 

The majority of the BoE policymakers saw spare capacity remaining in the range of 1% to 1.5% of GDP in 2014 Q2. They suggested that more slack should be absorbed before an increase in interest rates was warranted. They also said it was difficult to judge how persistent is the slowing in housing market activity and that the issue would be addressed by the Financial Policy Committee this month.

 

Summary: There were hawkish lines which imply that rates may be raised sooner than later. Still pound isn't jumpimg. The approaching FOMC and the fact that the BoE has already been hawkish in the past week must be the reason.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1367

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

 

June 18th: American session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/america1.png

 

Tatiana Norkina, an analyst at FBS

 

The index of the U.S. dollar does not stand the pressure today, after the disappointing data on the U.S. balance of payments, which already suffers from a lack of more than 111 billion dollars. Analysts also expect growth in the deficit to $ 97 billion a result, the index today is losing about 0.14%, going down to around 80.60. Stock markets opened mixed today in anticipation of the upcoming Fed meeting, where the interest rates issue will be resolved as well. Dzh.Yellen is expected to perform.

 

 

U.S. dollar falls against most currencies. Thus, the pair EUR/USD is back to yesterday's highs of 1.3580; obviously support 1.3520/1.3530 has resisted. Currency pair USD/CHF fell to 0.8960/0.8970 support, threatening corrective decline in the medium term. USD/JPY pair has returned to the figure of 102.00 after the maximum 102.30 for the last five days. Pair GBP/USD has been taken out of context: after the next testing of 1.7000 figure it fell to 1.6940 support.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1369

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

 

June 19: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/asian1.png

 

US dollar remained near the lows it hit yesterday versus its counterparts after the Federal Reserve signaled it will keep interest rates near zero even as it ends bond purchases, damping demand for the US currency. Asian shares rose toward a 6-year high. MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 1.1% before dipping down and erasing gain to 0.12%. Japanese Nikkei is up by 1.5%. Positive news also came from China where Premier Li Keqiang pledged to sustain the nation’s economic expansion forecast.

 

USD/JPY slid to 101.85. AUD/USD is trading above $0.9400. NZD/USD slid to the levels just above $0.8700 from a 6-week high after New Zealand’s economic growth missed estimates (GDP added 1.0% vs. 1.2% expected).

 

EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3590 area. GBP/USD is trading in the $1.6990 zone.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1371

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

19 June 2014

 

SNB maintains the EUR/CHF 1.20 peg

 

As it was widely expected, the Swiss National Bank kept its 3-month target rate at 0.00-0.25%. The EUR/CHF cap was maintained at 1.2000. The regulator underlined it is ready to buy unlimited quantities of foreign currency if needed.

 

The SNB sees moderate recovery of Swiss economy continuing: the economy is expected to expand by 2% in 2014. However, substantial downside risks still remain. The swiss franc remains elevated.

 

According to analysts at UBS, the Swiss central bank will follow the ECB in lowering rates if EUR/CHF falls to the 1.2000 peg.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1372

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

18 June 2014

 

Fed tapers QE by another $10 billion

 

As it was widely expected, the US Federal Reserve cut bond-buying program (QE) by $10 billion for a fifth straight meeting, to $35 billion, keeping it on pace to end the program late this year. Interest rates were left at a record low of 0-0.25%. The Fed repeated that the interest rates will likely remain low for a considerable time after the QE ends.

 

According to the FOMC statement, growth in economic activity has rebounded in recent months and the labor market has shown further improvement. The statement highlights the decline of the unemployment rate, but still sees it as elevated.

 

Meanwhile, the 2014 GDP growth forecast was revised down from 2.8-3.0% to 2.1-2.3%. The forecast cut was priced in, however. The 2014 inflation forecast was revised up a bit.

 

http://assets.forexlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Fed-forecasts-June-18-2014.png

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1370

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

 

Jun. 19: American session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/america1.png

 

Tatiana Norkina, an analyst at FBS

 

The U.S. dollar continues to weaken after yesterday's Fed meeting and Dzh.Yellen speech. Even positive statistics are unable to hold the dollar index, which is currently losing about 0.30%, consolidating at at 80.25. Note that the number of applications for unemployment benefits last week fell to 312 thousand (penultimate values ​​were about 318 thousand; outlook - 314 thousand). U.S. stock markets opened smoothly enough, the percentage change in the index is near zero.

Currency markets perked up noticeably. The EUR/USD soared to around 1.3640. Currency pair GBP/USD sets new highs in the 1.7050. The dollar fell against the franc (USD/CHF) in the area of ​​support 0.8910 and USD/JPY pair is trading just above 101.80 after testing four-days low of 101.70.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1374

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

 

June 20: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/asian1.png

 

MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.1%, but Asian shares still hold near the 6-year high. Nikkei is up by 0.1%. US dollar doesn’t feel very confident versus its peers before US data due next week which economists forecast will show manufacturing activity cooled and the economy shrank.

 

USD/JPY slid to 101.80. AUD/USD is trading above $0.9400, below yesterday’s peak at $0.9431. NZD/USD edged up to $0.8720. Gold headed for the longest run of weekly advances since March after rising to a 2-month high, as expectations that borrowing costs in the US will remain low fueled demand for bullion as an alternative investment.

 

EUR/USD rose to $1.3624, but is trading below yesterday’s peak at $1.3643. GBP/USD rose to $1.7050 after reaching $1.7062 yesterday.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1375

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

 

June 23: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/asian1.png

 

Asian shares extended a 6-week gain as a private report showed Chinese manufacturing unexpectedly expanded (HSBC Manufacturing PMI came at 50.8 vs. the forecast of 49.7). US dollar weakened versus its peers before data this week that may show US manufacturing and new home sales slowed, supporting the case for the Federal Reserve to hold rates near zero.

 

AUD/USD jumped from $0.9370 to $0.9440 in the session, inspired by the upbeat Chinese PMI data. NZD/USD strengthened by 40 pips to $0.8740, hitting a fresh monthly high. Market expectations for the RBNZ July rate hike are mounting. Gold price consolidates around $0.9315, forming a triangle on the hourly chart.

 

USD/JPY slid to 101.90.The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda’s due to speak at 06:00 GMT. The Japanese government is considering bringing forward cabinet approval of its growth strategy and basic economic plan to tomorrow from June 27, Kyodo News reported on June 19, citing a government source.

 

EUR/USD rose a bit above $1.3600. GBP/USD went up to $1.7040.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1377

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

23 June 2014

 

CFTC: USD longs declined

 

According to the latest COT (Commitments of Traders) report, the net long USD positions fell from from $15.95 billion on June 10 to $12.19 billion on June 17. The USD dollar bullish bets showed a first decline after five straight weekly increases. Despite the weekly decline, the overall USD position remained on the bullish side for a 6 consecutive week.

 

Large speculators bets in favor of GBP, JPY, CHF and CAD increased, while EUR, AUD and NZD positions declined.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/June/23/cot-values1.png

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/June/23/weekly-standings1.png

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1378

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

 

June 23th: American Session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/america1.png

 

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

Sales of secondary housing market rose to $ 4.89 billion, while analysts expected only $ 4.73 million - the following statistics released by the National Association of USA Realtors. But this growth has not helped to strengthen the dollar. In contrast, immediately after the publication the dollar index dropped to around 80.38 mark and is currently losing about 0.02%. Trading in the stock markets opened mixed. Thus, DJIA loses 0.20% and the S&P500 remains near zero.

 

In currency markets, today there is an uncertainty of participants, trading is held in a sideways mode. The pair EUR/USD consolidates below 1.3600 figure, where turned up during the European session. GBP/USD currency pair went back to Friday's minimums at 1.7000. USD/CHF pair is trading above 0.8945 support. The pair USD/JPY fell again to 101.80 today, from which is now happening a rebound in the direction of the figure.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1379

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

 

June 24: Asian session

 

http://www.fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Asia_eng.jpg

 

Asian shares were mixed today after a much muted Wall Street finish. Investors are digesting improved manufacturing data from China, Japan and the United States augured well for global growth, though result from the euro zone was disappointing. The greenback remains under pressure ahead of US new home sales data later today. USD/JPY is little changed in the 101.90 area.

 

There are no market moving releases in Australia and New Zealand for today. AUD/USD gained some ground, recovering to $0.9430. The pair holds below the yesterday’s peak of $0.9445. NZD/USD followed the Aussie, recovering to $0.8720. Gold trades under a slight bearish pressure around $1315.

 

EUR/USD edged down a bit from $1.3600. GBP/USD is trading in the $1.7025 area.

 

More:

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1380

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

 

Key option levels (June 24)

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3500 (large), $1.3530, $1.3545, $1.3600, $1.3635 (large);

 

USD/JPY: 102.05, 102.75, 103.00 (large);

 

USD/CHF: 0.8900, 0.9005;

 

AUD/USD: $0.9350/60 (large);

 

NZD/USD: $0.8655;

 

EUR/JPY: 138.50, 139.55;

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7975, 0.7985/90.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1381

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

 

June 24: European session

 

German IFO business climate came at 109.7, below expectations of 110.3. According to IFO, the ECB’s measures had no major impact on German economy; Q2 will be significantly weaker, but outlook for the German economy is good and consumer activity remains strong and stable. EUR/USD rose from $1.3590 above $1.3620 as the market players bought euro on the dips.

 

In the UK the Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney and MPC members had to answer question on the monthly inflation report before the parliamentary Treasury Select Committee. Carney said that the pace of job creation in the UK remains strong, but the rate hikes will be limited and gradual with timing dependant on the economic data. He underlined that the recent sterling strength has not yet been supported by improvement in competitiveness. The BoE’s Bean said that early withdrawal of stimulus may risk productivity gains and that he sees a case for later rather than earlier exit from stimulus. GBP/USD was hurt by this last comment and slid below $1.6980.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Europe_eng.jpg

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1382

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

 

June 24: American Session

 

Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

 

The dollar has begun to strengthen considerably today, after the positive statistics data from the U.S. The CB Consumer Confidence Index has risen to the 85.2 mark, instead of the forecast 83.5, while new home sales have exceeded all expectations - up to 504 thousand (predicted nimber - 440 thousand). This has allowed the U.S. dollar index to rise to the 80.45 figure, after a morning dip to 80.25. Thus, a positive trend is in effect and the index is adding about 0.15%. Major U.S. stock markets have opend in the green zone as well: DJIA is adding about 0.15%, S&P500 - 0.25%. A speech by Secretary of the Treasure Lew is expected a little later.

 

Currency markets are witnessing a significant recovery of the dollar against the majority of the world currencies today. Thus, the EUR/USD pair has once again got under the 1.3600 figure, after a day's testing of the 1.3620 resistance. The GBP/USD currency pair has fallen to around 1.6970. USD/CHF is trading in the 0.8950 area, after finding support at the 0.8930 mark. In the meantime, USD/JPY has soared to the 102.10 figure - the bears have refused to break through the 101.80 support.

 

More:

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1383

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

 

June 25: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Asia_eng.jpg

 

Asian shares fell on Wednesday, echoing losses on Wall Street as concerns about escalating violence in Iraq eclipsed stronger economic data. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell about 0.4%, while Japan’s Nikkei stock average lost 0.5%.

 

Commodity currencies are trading under a slight bearish pressure following the yesterday’s sharp selloff on strong US data. AUD/USD trades to the downside with a support seen at $0.9350. NZD/USD bounced 15 pips up from $0.8660. Gold remains under selling pressure as well.

 

USD/JPY slid to 101.85. EUR/USD is trading just above $1.3600. GBP/USD slid to $1.6970.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1384

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

 

Key option levels (June 25)

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3530/40 (large), $1.3550 (large), $1.3560 (large), $1.3600 (large), $1.3625 (large), $1.3650 (large), $1.3655 (large);

 

GBP/USD: $1.6975, $1.7030

 

USD/JPY: 101.50, 101.70, 102.00 (large) 102.10/20 (large);

 

USD/CHF: 0.8945;

 

AUD/USD: $0.9400;

 

EUR/CHF: 1.2200.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1385

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

25 June 2014

 

Japan's Abe: end of deflation

 

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said deflation has ended in Japan and will be wiped away by new government policies designed to encourage business expansion. His ruling party will seek to pass a law in the next session of parliament to legalize casinos as part of a plan to boost tourism before the Tokyo Olympics in 2020, the premier said in an Bloomberg interview yesterday.

 

“Through bold monetary policy, flexible fiscal policy and the growth strategy we have reached a stage where there is no deflation,” Abe said in the interview yesterday. "With the first sales tax rise since 1997 that took effect in April, this was an extremely difficult time for management of the economy, but I believe we were somehow able to overcome it.”

 

Despite the BOJ's optimism, most economists still believe it will need to ease policy again this year, supposedly in December. Nevertheless, the yen (JPY) looks strong unless the regulator steps in with the new easing measures.

 

More:http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1386

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

 

Jun 25th: American session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/america1.png

Tatiana Norkina, an analyst at FBS

 

The dollar is weakening in early U.S. session after the release of negative statistics. Thus, the country's GDP in the last quarter has changed significantly to the worse, to -2.9%, while analysts forecast a decline of only 1.7%. The previous change was -1.0%. In addition, durable goods orders became 1% smaller (forecast: growth of 0.2%). As a result, the dollar index dipped to 80.14 and is currently losing about 0.25%. Stock markets show a positive trend at the opening: DJIA adds about 0.20%, while the S & P500 - 0.10%.

 

 

Apparent weakness of the dollar is obviously seen in the currency markets as well: EUR/USD soared to 1.3650; GBP/USD pair is testing 1.7000. Currency pair USD/CHF fell to the support 0.8910, USD/JPY broke 101.80 and is testing the next important level of 101.60 now.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1387

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

 

June 26: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Asia_eng.jpg

 

It was a quiet session with all the major pairs trading in tight ranges. The yesterday's USD pessimism turned to be short-lived. Asian shares rose as investors believe that the US economy is emerging from a worse-than-estimated contraction last quarter. Japanese Nikkei is up by 0.3%. USD/JPY keeps on testing the 101.80 support to the downside.

 

NZD/USD was the only big mover, jumping to $0.8770. Kiwi strengthened as New Zealand offers the highest interest rate among the developed nations. AUD/USD weakened to $0.9410.

 

EUR/USD consolidates around $1.3630, while GBP/USD - around $1.6990. Watch the BoE Financial Stability Report and Carney's speech in the European session.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1388

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

 

Key option levels (June 26)

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3570/75, $1.3585 (large), $1.3600 (large), $1.3610/20 (large);

 

GBP/USD: $1.6900, $1.7000;

 

USD/JPY: 101.00 (large), 101.50, 101.65, 102.00 (large), 101.95 (large), 102.20/25 (large), 102.30;

 

AUDUSD: $0.9400;

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7970, 0.8930;

 

EUR/JPY: 138.00, 138.20.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1389

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

26 June 2014

 

The BoE caps mortgage lending

 

GBP/USD hit the new session highs after the release of the BoE Financial Stability Report and the Governor’s Carney speech. Mark Carney said the recovery in the UK economy is broadening and strengthening, but the property market poses significant risks to financial stability.

 

To mitigate them the UK regulator will cap mortgages from October, so that people borrowing 85% of a house's value will not be allowed to borrow more than 4.5 times their income. They also announced new stress tests for the banks.

 

Carney underlined that the monetary policy outlook remains unchanged: rate hikes are needed, but they will be gradual and moderate.

 

GBP/USD moved higher on Carney’s comments, but faced resistance around $1.7030.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1390

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

 

Jun 26th: American session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/america1.png

 

Tatiana Norkina, an analyst at FBS

 

Today U.S. dollar index was supported, in general, by fairly neutral data on the labor market. Despite the expected 310 thousand, the number of applications for unemployment benefits was 312 thousand last week, but it is lower than on the previous week - 314 thousand dollar index soared on the news to around 80.45, recouping yesterday's drop. Positive dynamics are preserved: +0.15%. But stock markets sagged noticeably at the opening. DJIA has lost about 0.60%, while the S & P500 - 0.50%.

 

 

Against this background, the pair EUR/USD fell to 1.3575 support and USD/CHF rebounded to the level of 0.8950. Currency pair GBP/USD tested 1.7040, but could not be held here: the ensuing course correction made ​​it back down to 1.7000 figure. USD/JPY is out of context, it is currently trading at today's lows, in 101.50.

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1391

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MARKET NEWS

 

June 27: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Asia_eng.jpg

 

USD/JPY fell to 101.30. US dollar slumped to its lowest level in 5 weeks against the yen after downbeat US spending data gave investors no reason to hope for higher US rates anytime soon. Japanese inflation was in line with expectations.

 

NZD/USD touched $0.8790, hitting a new 12-month high. Kiwi buyers were inspired by a bigger-than-expected trade balance (285M vs. 250M expected). AUD/USD strengthened to $0.9430 mark – this is the one-month resistance area. Gold recovered to $1320.

 

EUR/USD rose to $1.3628 after dipping to $1.3575 yesterday. GBP/USD rose to $1.7050.

 

More:

FX BAZOOKA - June 27: Asian session

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...