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MARKET NEWS

9 July 2014

 

China used to support EUR

 

Analysts at Morgan Stanley point out that China still accumulates the biggest reserves in foreign currency approaching the $4 trillion mark. Such huge reserves have no doubt an impact on the market.

 

According to MS estimates, Chinese reserve managers bought more than $80 billion worth of euro from Q4, 2013, through Q1, 2014 as they were diversifying from the greenback. This helped to stabilize euro. In addition, they bought Canadian dollar and Japanese yen.

 

Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley thinks that China’s Forex reserve accumulation is likely to slow. Chinese managers are usually buying euro on dips and selling on rallies. So, euro might be able to drift lower in line with fundamentals and rate differentials.

 

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MARKET NEWS

9 July 2014

 

BOJ may lower forecasts

 

The Bank of Japan is to review its quarterly economic estimates next week when it meets on July 15.

 

The last time Japanese central bank issued its projections was in January. Then the BOJ expected to see domestic GDP rise by 1.1% in the fiscal year to March 2015. However, the 8% drop in y/y household spending last month may force the regulator to revise down its estimates for the nation’s economic growth. Analysts polled by Reuters estimate 0.9% GDP for the same period.

 

If the BOJ revised down its growth forecasts, it may initially push down USD/JPY. Then, however, of the market starts to think that the Bank of Japan may add monetary stimulus, USD/JPY may reverse up.

 

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MARKET NEWS

9 July 2014

 

Dragi is due to speak today

 

The ECB’s President Mario Draghi will speak today at 18:30 GMT in London, where he delivered his famous speech almost exactly 2 years ago pledging to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro.

 

Draghi takes the stage later in the day, and investors will be looking for signs the ECB could take further easing steps to support the euro zone economy.

 

EUR/USD is trading on the downside. Euro returned to $1.3600 after testing $1.3630 earlier today.

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

July 10: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Asia_eng.jpg

 

US dollar weakened amid bets US interest rates will remain near zero this year after minutes of the Fed’s most recent meeting failed to offer clues on the timing of increases. Asian stocks outside Japan rose as investors speculated that increasing Chinese exports and imports signaled growth in the world’s second-largest economy is stabilizing. Japanese core machinery orders contracted by 19.5% in May and the nation’s tertiary industry activity came lower than expected. Japanese Nikkei 225 is down by 0.2%. USD/JPY slid to 101.50.

 

AUD/USD had a volatile session because of the mixed bag of Australia labor market data. Number of employed people increased by 15.9K in June (forecast: 12.3K, prior: -5.1K). Meanwhile, June unemployment rate rose to 6.0% (forecast: 5.9%, May figure has also been revised up to 5.9%). The Aussie dollar initially jumped to $0.9460 but then rapidly retraced to $0.9410/15. Disappointing China trade data pulled the pair lower to the $0.9360 area. NZD/USD trades in a narrow $0.8835/10 range.

 

EUR/USD is trading a bit on the upside, just below $1.3650. GBP/USD is little changed in the $1.7155 area.

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

Key option levels (July 10)

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3500 (large), $1.3525/35, $1.3615 (large), $1.2620-30 (large), $1.3650 (large);

 

GBP/USD: $1.7000, $1.7070, $1.7110;

 

USD/JPY: 101.35/45, 101.65/75, 101.85, 102.00, 102.30/35;

 

AUD/USD: $0.9300 (large), $0.9330 (large), $0.9375/85, $0.9400, $0.9440;

 

NZD/USD: $0.8760;

 

EUR/CHF: 1.2205;

 

EUR/GBP: 0.8000.

 

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MARKET NEWS

10 July 2014

 

FOMC minutes: what's new?

 

The minutes from the June 17-18 FOMC meeting, released on Wednesday, showed the US officials agreed to end the Fed's bond-buying program by October. The Fed’s officials also discussed strategies for exiting a period of low rates, with 13 of the 16 members indicating they expect to start seeing a higher federal funds rate next year. However, the US dollar weakened as with no indication of the rate hikes timing, the minutes make Fed continue to look dovish.

 

According to the regulator, it wants to see the US consumer prices increase and the labor market tighten before shifting the monetary policy to normal. Inflation and unemployment will be seen as the primary indicators for measuring the pace of economic recovery. The Fed promised to let the markets know their rate raising plans in advance.

 

According to Barclays Capital economists, the pace of economic recovery will be more rapid then the Fed expects. First rate hike will likely come in June 2015. Strategists expect the Fed to outline the rate increase timing on a press-conference following the September meeting.

 

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MARKET NEWS

10 July 2014

 

The BoE meeting to be a non-event

 

Bank of England will announce its monetary policy decision today at 11:00 GMT. The July meeting is expected to be a non-event for the currency market: interest rate is expected to stay at a record low of 0.5%, while the QE volume – at 375 billion. The British pound may use the absence of rate hike timing news as a reason for bearish correction. However, be careful with selling the pair: the overall trend still remains bullish.

 

Danske Bank: “Instead of the meeting itself the focus will be on the minutes from the meeting (released on 23 July), where we will see if there is some dissident vote among board members, advocating an earlier rate hike”.

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

July 10: European session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Europe_eng.jpg

 

EUR/USD edged down to $1.3630. On the upside resistance is at $1.3650. French industrial production contracted by 1.7% vs. expected growth of 0.5%, while the nation’s consumer prices once again stagnated. European stocks are falling for a fifth day in a row. Euro Stoxx 50 index is down by 0.7%. According to the ECB’s monthly bulletin released today, the regulator’s monetary stance will continue to ease in the coming months.

 

GBP/USD slipped to $1.7110 as the UK trade balance came out worse than expected. Trade deficit extended from 9.0B to 9.2B in May, while the market consensus was only 8.8B. The data gives more arguments for a later policy tightening.

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

July 10: American Session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Europe_eng.jpg

 

Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

 

The U.S. dollar index is recovering in the 80.25 area today, after yesterday's collapse to the 80.00 figure. Positive mood has been set by the data on the labor market: the number of applications for unemployment benefits has dropped to 304 thousand in the past week, while analysts had expected 315 thousand. The index is adding about 0.20%. At the same time, there is a significant slide in stock markets that have reacted to the minutes of FRS yesterday's meeting which stated that QE will be completed in October this year. Thus, DJIA and S&P500 are losing around 0.80%.

 

Currency markets have reacted variously. EUR/USD, after consolidating at the highs of 1.3650 in the morning, has collapsed to the 1.3590 support. The GBP/USD pair was declining to 1.7100 again, but has eventually recovered to the 1.7120 level. The USD/CHF currency pair has found support at 0.8900 and rebounded to the 0.8930 mark. It is highly probable to renew the afternoon's upward trend. In the meantime, the USD/JPY pair was sliding to the 101.00 figure, from which it bounced to 101.20, but bearish mood of the market participants is likely to remain.

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

July 11: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Asia_eng.jpg

 

Asian shares declined heading for the first weekly loss in 9 weeks. MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.2%. Concern about financial risks in Europe worsened risk sentiment. Investors are worried, because a company linked to Portugal’s second-largest lender missed debt payments.

 

USD/JPY edged down to 101.20, but is trading above yesterday’s low in the 101.05 area. US dollar headed for its biggest weekly decline versus the yen since April as traders trimmed bets the central bank will raise interest rates.

 

AUD/USD consolidates in the $0.9375/90 range on Friday after the yesterday’s volatile trade. Australian number of new home loans granted came unchanged against the -0.6% forecast, but the prior month results have been revised down to -0.2%. NZD/USD touched the $0.8800 mark in the session, pulling down from the strong $0.8840 resistance area – this is the record high, hit in 2011. Gold price gained some pips.

 

EUR/USD is once again testing levels below $1.3600, but is trading above yesterday’s low at $1.3588. GBP/USD edged down to $1.7120 after dipping towards $1.7100 yesterday.

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

Key option levels (July 11)

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3600, $1.3620/30, $1.3640;

 

USD/JPY: 101.00 (large), 101.45/50, 101.70, 102.00 (large);

 

AUD/USD: $0.9300/05 (large), $0.9320, $0.9350, $0.9390, $0.9500;

 

USD/CAD: 1.0600, 1.0625 (large), 1.0725 (large);

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7900;

 

EUR/JPY: 138.50.

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

July 11: American Session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Asia_eng.jpg

 

Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

 

U.S. dollar index is once again showing positive dynamics today, adding about 0.10% by now. However, a report on administration of US budget is expected to appear later, and high volatility is possible. Stock markets are captured by bearish moods. Thus, DJIA is losing about 0.20%, S&P500 - 0.10%.

 

Currency pairs are consolidating in narrow ranges. The EUR/USD pair, after testing 1.3620, has returned to the 1.3590 support. GBP/USD is declining in the 1.7110 area. The USD/CHF currency pair has failed to break through the 0.8930 resistance, which has been supressing the bulls advance for the past three days. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair is moving in the flat in the 101.20-101.35 range.

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

July 14: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Asia_eng.jpg

 

The market volatility is low with all the currencies stuck in tight ranges amid low trading volumes. Markets stay calm, waiting for the Fed’s Yellen testimony at Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday for some news on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.

 

USD/JPY opened the week with a gap up and strengthened by 10 pips to 101.40, recovering from the last week’s low of 101.06. The dollar index edged slightly higher to 80.20, rising from a two-month low of 79.75 on July 1.

 

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.6% in the session. AUD/USD strengthened to the $0.9400 mark. Meanwhile, the RBA Governor Glenn Stevensreiterated that some investors may be underestimating the riskof "a material decline" in the currency at some point. NZD/USD touched $0.8820, but retraced some gains.

 

Monday’s economic calendar is thin – only the euro zone will release industrial production figure and the ECB president Mario Draghi will deliver a speech. EUR/USD consolidates in the $1.3597/3607 narrow range, while GBP/USD – in the $1.7110/20 range.

 

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MARKET NEWS

14 July 2014

 

Euro zone: industrial production

 

Eurostat will release monthly industrial production change data for May 2014 on July 14, 9:00 GMT.

 

Event: Industrial Production

Publication date: July 14, 2014, 9:00 GMT

Previous: 0.8%

Market forecast: 0.3%

 

Given the fact that German industrial production contracted and that the euro zone's manufacturing PMI was revised down, analysts expect that the figure will come in line with market forecast.

 

http://files.fortrader.ru/uploads/2014/07/Industrial-Production1-443x228.png

 

Chart. Industrial Production

 

Source: ForTrader.ru

 

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MARKET NEWS

14 July 2014

 

CFTC: USD bullish bets up

 

According to the latest CFTC report, released on July 11, large traders and speculators slightly increased their US dollar bullish bets on the week ended July 8 for the first time in four weeks. The overall USD long position increased from $8.65 billion registered on July 1 to $10.34 billion on July 8.

 

Large speculators increased bets on EUR, CHF, CAD and NZD, while there were weekly decreases for GBP, JPY and AUD positions.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/July/14/usd-cots.png

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/July/14/cot-standings1.png

 

Sources: CFTC, Reuters, CountingPips

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

July 14: American Session

 

Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Asia_eng.jpg

 

The dollar is strengthening before ECB President Dragi's next speech, scheduled for 21:00 GMT+4. In the afternoon, the index went into the red zone, after industrial production data publication which turned out better than expected, but after the session opening it went back to the 80.25 mark and is now close to zero. Stock markets have opened with a significant upward gap, which has become quite common recently. DJIA is adding about 0.80%, S&P500 - 0.50%.

 

Currency pairs have broken through Friday's ranges today. The EUR/USD pair, after setting the high of the day at 1.3640, has corrected to the 1.3620 support. The GBP/USD currency pair was sliding to 1.7070, continuing the correction process. USD/CHF has found support at the 0.8900 figure and is correcting to 0.8920 now. The USD/JPY pair has grown to 101.60, having broken through the 101.35 resistance.

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

July 15: Asian session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Asia_eng.jpg

 

Asian shares rose for the second day after Citigroup Inc. reported better-than-forecast profit, boosting confidence that earnings growth can sustain further gains in shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.4%. Nikkei 225 is up by 0.8%.

 

USD/JPY edged up to 101.60. Japanese yen was little changed as the Bank of Japan maintained record monetary stimulus. US dollar remained higher against the yen following its biggest one-day advance in a week before the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen testifies before US lawmakers today and tomorrow.

 

Commodity currencies remained almost unchanged during the session. AUD/USD consolidates in a tight $0.9380/9400 range after the RBA minutes reiterated recent statements, giving no new information for traders. NZD/USD sits in the narrow $0.8800/15 range. Kiwi dollar slipped from the recent highs hit last week.

 

EUR/USD is little changed in the $1.3617 area. GBP/USD has frozen at $1.7080.

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

Key option levels (July 15)

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3550 $1.3600 $1.3675;

 

USD/JPY: 101.65/70 (large), 102.00;

 

AUD/USD: $0.9365 (large), $0.9375, $0.9400;

 

USD/CAD: 1.0675, 1.0750;

 

NZD/USD: $0.8725;

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7900 (large), 0.7950 (large).

 

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MARKET NEWS

15 July 2014

 

Bloomberg poll: what will ECB do?

 

Bloomberg has surveyed 28 economists of the leading banks asking about their expectations of the European Central Bank’s policy. These forecasts provide a glimpse into how the market feels.

 

1. Rate cuts

- ECB will make no more cuts in the refi rate: 100% of respondents

 

- ECB will make one more cut in the deposit rate in Q1 2015: 3% of respondents

 

- ECB will make no more cuts in the deposit rate: 97% of respondents

 

2. Rate will be increased in:

- 2017: 39% of respondents

 

- 2016: 45% of respondents

 

- 2015: 13% of respondents

 

- 2018: 3% of respondents

 

3. ABS program will happen in:

 

- 2015: 50% of respondents

 

- 2014: 44% of respondents

 

- Never: 6% of respondents

 

4. The state of the European economy during the next month will be:

- Unchanged: 76% of respondents

 

- Improving: 14% of respondents

 

- Deteriorating: 10% of respondents

 

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MARKET NEWS

15 July 2014

 

Kuroda: tax hike doesn't threaten the economy

 

The Bank of Japan policy meeting brought no surprises to the markets as the expansion of the monetary base was left unchanged at 60-70 trillion yen. Following the policy announcement, the BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that Japan's economy continued exceeding its potential growth rate and that the effect from the sales tax hike remains within expectations.

 

"The downturn in spending after the sales tax hike is roughly within expectations. Domestic demand, including capital expenditure, remains firm as a trend. A virtuous cycle in economic activity clearly remains in place," the governor assured. As for the inflation, BoJ still believes it will be able to reach its 2% price stability target at some stage in late 2015 or early 2016.

 

Quantitative easing, which is appraised as an effective measure, wouldn't be withdrawn until the 2% inflation target was reached, Kuroda stressed, adding that other adjustments would be made if needed. "If the Fed steadily heads towards increasing rates and the BoJ keeps QE in place, the JPY shouldn't rise against the USD", he said.

 

Danske Bank: “In the coming months it will be status quo from BoJ and we are unlikely to see any easing measures unless the JPY for some reason appreciates markedly. Hence, there is unlikely to be any impetus for a weaker JPY from Japan’s monetary policy in the short run”.

 

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MARKET NEWS

15 July 2014

 

Westpac: the meaning of RBA minutes

 

Analysts at Westpac have made the following conclusions from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting minutes released today:

 

- There’s no evidence that the RBA is seriously considering rate cuts.

 

- The RBA seems comfortable with waiting for further developments before choosing a policy path.

 

- The RBA is not particularly worried about the emerging weakness in the consumer sector and provides strong emphasis around the sharp lift in residential investment (this view may have changed after data came out that Australian retail sales fell by 0.5%).

 

- The analysis of the RBA’s rhetoric shows that it may be preparing to shorten the ‘on hold’ policy stance and increase rates earlier – though for now this is just a hypothesis.

 

Westpac expects that the RBA will remain on hold until September 2015.

 

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MARKET NEWS

15 July 2014

 

GBP supported by the stong CPI

 

British pound strengthened in the European session as the UK inflation data came mostly better than expected. June CPI came out much better than expected at +0.2% m/m and +1.9% y/y vs. -0.1% m/m and +1.6% y/y.

 

GBP/USD came under bearish pressure before the release as many market players expected to see a lower CPI, but soared from the daily $1.7058 low to $1.7145 on the news. The cable has fully retraced the recent bearish correction. Investors took the data as a confirmation of UK economic recovery and a sooner rate hike.

 

Traders will now switch their attention to the UK labor data release on Wednesday. May unemployment rate is expected to decline from 6.6% to 6.5%, what could support the GBP. Claimant count is forecasted to contract by 27.1K in June (prior: 27.4K).

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/July/15/gbpusdh4.png

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

 

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MARKET NEWS

15 July 2014

 

Negative news from the euro area

 

EUR/USD slid below $1.3090 as German ZEW economic sentiment came below expectations, at 27.1 vs. the forecast of 28.9 and the previous reading of 29.8. The index for the entire euro area has also missed forecasts coming at 61.8 vs. 62.3 expected, though this is higher than the previous reading of 58.4.

 

Yesterday the ECB president Mario Draghi echoed his comments from this month’s press conference repeating that the risks to the economic outlook are on the downside and that the regulator’s ready to use unconventional tools within mandate if needed.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/News/Central%20Banks/zew.png

 

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MARKET NEWS

15 July 2014

 

Yellen: ahead of the testimony

 

The Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen will testify to the Congress today and tomorrow at 14:00 GMT. The discussion will probably be about the period low interest rates, inflation outlook and the possibility of a guideline to the central bank’s decisions on interest rates.

 

According to Deutsche Bank, Yellen’s prepared remarks will largely reflect the economic assessment of the FOMC at its June meeting. Her comments could be “modestly more upbeat,” reflecting recent improved data, and “she will acknowledge that progress has been made.” Because her remarks reflect the views of the full FOMC, “there is a risk she is less dovish than what the financial markets assume are her underlying views.”

 

Still, however, Yellen is likely to emphasize the need to keep interest rates near 0 for a considerable period. The Fed expects to tighten only in the middle of 2015. The economic situation remains uncertain and the regulator probably won’t share much information. As a result, USD bulls might get disappointed by Yellen’s comments, while higher yielding currencies like Australian dollar increase.

 

Also don’t miss other important data due in the US today:

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2014/July/15/calendar%20us.png

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

July 15: American Session

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Asia_eng.jpg

 

Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

 

Mixed economic data are preventing the U.S. dollar index from growing today. Nevertheless, there is a possibility of a break through the 80.30 resistnace, under which the index has been consolidating for the past three days. Stock markets have opened positively, adding by 0.25%. Traders are awaiting FRS Chairman J. Yellen's speech, to begin at 18:00 GMT+4.

 

Consolidation is prevailing on the currency markets, with a bias towards strengthening of the dollar. The EUR/USD pair has remained under 1.3620 and even slid to the 1.3600 figure. USD / CHF has rebounded to 0.8930, having broken up through the five-days range. The USD/JPY currency pair has failed to break through 101.60 and is tending to decrease to the ​​101.40 area. Strong bullish sentiment has arisen on the GBP/USD pair after inflation data release: the rate has skyrocketed by over a figure - to the 1.7170 mark - after updating yesterday's lows.

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1467

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