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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
Date: 10th September 2026. ECB Rate Decision and US PPI: EUR/USD Outlook. The Euro edges higher on Thursday as the European Central Bank’s rate decision edges closer. Markets expect the ECB to increase interest rates from 2.40% to 2.65% taking the main refinancing rate to an 18-month high. The Euro will be influenced by the rate decision, but also largely from the guidance given during the press conference. However, the US Producer Price Index may also impact the Euro, as the Dollar is its main competitor. Later this afternoon, the US will announce its Producer Price Index (producer inflation), followed by the consumer inflation figure tomorrow. If the US inflation is higher than expectated and the ECB’s President, Christine Lagarde, is not hawkish enough, the Euro may decline. Currently, the worst-performing currency of the day is the US Dollar. The Euro is the third-best-performing after the Swiss Franc and New Zealand Dollar. Euro and the ECB Rate Decision The 25-basis-point hike is fully priced into the Euro and European indices. For this reason, a rate hike is not adequate to maintain bullish price movement. The key for investors will be Christine Lagarde’s comments on future rate hikes and inflation in the EU. Eurozone headline inflation jumped from 2.9% to 3.3% in August, largely because of energy prices. At the same time, Brent crude has moved back above $100, increasing the risk that energy inflation spreads into transportation, manufacturing, and eventually consumer prices. If President Lagarde indicates that today's hike may not be enough, markets will start pricing the deposit rate at 2.75%. Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, and BNP Paribas are among those now expecting another 25-basis-point hike in December. This would be positive for the Euro and negative for European indices. Interestingly, the ECB may raise its 2026 growth projection because the economy has performed better than expected. Stronger growth gives the ECB more room to hike without fearing an immediate recession or economic slowdown. As the EU is a net importer of oil, higher oil prices are also key to the Eurozone’s monetary policy. From recent speeches and interviews, certain ECB members are looking to vote for a hike. These include Germany’s Joachim Nagel, as well as Isabel Schnabel and Olli Rehn. However, others are more reluctant, such as Philip Lane. Though it is vital that traders remember that developments across the Atlantic will also be key for the Euro. US Dollar and US Inflation Producer inflation figures can be just as important for the Fed’s decision as the CPI. For this reason, many traders are eagerly watching today’s event. Traders should note that last month’s PPI announcement prompted double the amount of volatility compared with CPI. Currently, there is roughly a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike, while economists surveyed by Reuters still mostly expect the Fed to leave the 3.50-3.75% rate unchanged. That disagreement means that today’s inflation figure will be even more important and could trigger new impulse waves. Analysts expect the Producer Price Index to have risen 0.4% in August and the core figure to have risen 0.3%. If the figure reads higher than the expected, the US Dollar could rise and the Euro could decline. Tomorrow’s CPI figure could also have a similar impact but may experience slightly less volatility. EUR/USD - Technical Analysis HFM - EURUSD 1-Hour Chart In terms of technical analysis, the Euro has a slight edge over the US Dollar for the time being. The price is trading above the key moving averages on most timeframes, but is also at a neutral level on the RSI. During the Asian session, the price of the EUR/USD rose but is now trading sideways. Investors are most likely awaiting for the latest data to be made public. If the price rises above 1.16405, buy signals could start to materialise from the breakout and bullish crossover. However, traders should be cautious of the resistance levels at 1.16535 and 1.16795. However, if the PPI release pushes the price down, with a weaker PPI reading, sell signals may potentially materialise at 1.16340 and 1.16290. Key Takeaways: The ECB is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points, but Lagarde’s guidance on future hikes will be more important for the Euro. Higher Eurozone inflation and rising oil prices could strengthen the case for further ECB tightening later this year. US PPI and CPI will be key for Fed expectations, with stronger-than-expected inflation likely to support the US Dollar. EUR/USD remains technically supported, with 1.16405 as a key upside trigger and resistance around 1.16535–1.16795. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
Date: 9th September 2026. Tanker Strikes, Missiles Over Jordan: How the Gulf Escalation Is Repricing Oil, Gold, and the Yen. Oil markets just went from ‘watch closely’ to ‘impossible to ignore.’ Brent crude is trading within a whisker of $100 a barrel for the first time since July, and the driver isn’t a slow-burning supply story, it’s an active military escalation between the US and Iran that’s now spilling into Jordan and the Gulf shipping lanes. For traders, this is the kind of setup that demands a plan before the next headline hits, not after. Why Oil Is Suddenly the Market's Main Story Over the past 48 hours, US forces reportedly destroyed several Iranian crude tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island, a key export terminal. Iran responded by launching ballistic missiles towards a US-linked base in Jordan. Most were intercepted, but the exchange marks a sharp escalation from where this conflict stood even a week ago. Add in Houthi strikes that forced Saudi Arabia to pause activity at some of its own energy facilities, and you have three separate flashpoints hitting oil supply confidence at once. Brent is currently changing hands near $99.50, with WTI just under $95. Both benchmarks are up more than 60% year-to-date, and traders are increasingly pricing in the risk that this isn't a short-lived spike but a structurally tighter supply environment heading into next year. For traders, the key levels to watch: $100 on Brent: a clean psychological breakout level that could trigger momentum buying if broken decisively. Kharg Island and Strait of Hormuz headlines: any reporting of shipping disruption through Hormuz (roughly a fifth of global oil flows) is a volatility trigger regardless of the time of day. Weekly API and EIA inventory data: now carry extra weight as a read on how much physical disruption is actually reaching supply. Given the headline-driven nature of this move, wider stops and reduced position sizing on oil CFDs are worth considering until the geopolitical picture stabilises. Equities Are Split Between Fear and the AI Trade Global stock markets are sending two different signals depending on where you look. Broad indices are cautious to negative, the Dow and S&P 500 both fell as US trading resumed this week, and European futures have been soft, as rising energy costs feed into inflation worries and rate uncertainty. At the same time, chip and AI-linked names are still finding buyers. South Korea's KOSPI has been the standout, climbing again on strength in SK Hynix and Samsung, and is now up roughly 67% year-to-date, making it one of the best-performing major indices globally. Fresh corporate news, including a major cloud provider signing on as both customer and investor in a leading chipmaker, plus continued strong demand signals from equipment makers, is keeping the AI infrastructure narrative alive even as broader risk sentiment sours. What this means for index and single-stock traders: correlation between ‘risk-off’ and ‘sell everything’ is breaking down. It is worth separating oil-sensitive, rate-sensitive sectors, such as airlines, discretionary retail, and high-multiple growth outside AI, from the semiconductor and AI infrastructure complex, which is currently trading on its own fundamentals rather than the macro backdrop. The Yen Is Quietly One of the Biggest Stories in FX While oil dominates headlines, the Yen has been on a multi-day advance, recently trading near ¥153.4 to the dollar. Part of this is classic risk-aversion flow into a funding currency, but there is a policy angle too: the US Treasury Secretary has taken an unusually public stance encouraging Yen strength, and markets are increasingly pricing in a Bank of Japan rate hike at next week’s meeting, following stronger-than-expected wage and growth data out of Japan. A hawkish BoJ combined with a Fed that may be forced to hold rates due to oil-driven inflation risk is a setup that could keep USD/JPY under pressure. For traders running carry-trade-style long-dollar, long-yield positions, this is worth reassessing, the unwind of yen-funded carry trades has historically produced some of the sharpest, fastest FX moves of any G10 pair. Friday’s CPI Print Is the Week’s Real Catalyst Everything above ultimately funnels into one data point: Friday’s US Consumer Price Index release. Markets are watching to see whether higher gasoline costs from the oil spike are already showing up in the headline number, and whether core inflation (excluding food and energy) confirms the disinflation trend or stalls out. A hot CPI print, arriving on top of an oil shock, would materially raise the odds of the Fed staying restrictive at its September 15-16 meeting, a scenario that would likely support the dollar and pressure gold and equity indices simultaneously. A softer print would do the opposite and could see risk assets rally even with oil elevated. Gold is holding firm near $4,390-$4,400 an ounce, caught between two competing forces: safe-haven demand from the Middle East conflict on one side, and the risk of higher-for-longer rates on the other. This tension makes gold particularly sensitive to how the CPI surprise breaks, a rare setup where both the geopolitical and monetary policy narratives are pulling in opposite directions at the same time. The Trader’s Checklist for the Rest of This Week Set alerts around $100 Brent and any Strait of Hormuz shipping headlines, this market can gap on weekend and overnight news. Watch Thursday’s PPI as a preview before Friday’s CPI, since producer prices often hint at where consumer inflation is heading. Track USD/JPY into the BoJ meeting, a hawkish surprise there could compound dollar weakness already in play. Keep an eye on the oil-versus-AI divergence in equities, a single ‘risk-off’ label doesn't capture what's happening beneath the index level right now. Size positions for headline risk, not just technical setups, in an active-conflict market, the next catalyst can come from a wire headline as easily as from a chart level. This is a market where the macro picture is unusually clear. Middle East tensions are pushing oil higher, oil pushing inflation risk higher, inflation risk pushing rate expectations higher, and rate expectations are pressuring equities, but the timing and magnitude of each leg remain genuinely uncertain. That combination of clarity and uncertainty is exactly why volatility, and trading opportunity, are likely to stay elevated through Friday’s CPI release and beyond. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
Date: 8th September 2026. Japanese Yen Hits February High as BoJ Rate-Hike Expectations Rise. The Japanese Yen continues to increase in value, rising to its highest level since February. The rise in value is due to expectations of a more hawkish Bank of Japan and currency intervention. According to the Japanese government, as well as many institutions on Wall Street, this price movement is different and may not simply lose momentum like previous interventions. BoJ - Two Rate Hikes on the Table Many economists believe the recent strengthening of the Japanese Yen could be different from previous moves. One key reason is the prospect of further tightening from the Bank of Japan. While even the more hawkish forecasts generally point to quarterly rather than back-to-back rate hikes, expectations are building that the BoJ could raise rates again before the end of the year. Prime Minister Takaichi’s economic adviser, Takuji Aida, recently indicated that he expects a September rate hike followed by quarterly increases. Most economists do not expect consecutive hikes. Nevertheless, a second hike before year-end remains a possibility. This creates the potential for the BoJ to tighten monetary policy at a faster pace than the Federal Reserve over the medium term. As a result, the Japanese Yen has continued to strengthen across the currency market, while USD/JPY has come under increasing downward pressure. Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan’s global head of economics, said that the bank forecasts two adjustments before year-end. Markets themselves are pricing in roughly a 60% chance of another move by December after the expected September hike. Bank of America also backs two hikes, with its economists advising quarterly hikes, including September and December 2026. According to reports, its foreign exchange team has also turned bullish on the Japanese yen for the rest of 2026. Higher Exchange Rate to OffSet Higher Oil Prices Japan is extremely exposed to imported energy. More than 90% of Japan’s crude oil imports come from the Middle East. The government also stated earlier that roughly 93% of its crude imports normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz. For this reason, it is vital for the government and Bank of Japan to boost the currency in order to purchase energy products more easily. Governor Ueda has specifically identified the weak Yen and geopolitical developments in the Middle East as factors that could increase inflation risks. These risks will be considered when deciding whether to raise interest rates further. If the Bank of Japan adjusts rates from 1.00% to 1.50% by 2027, it would take the rate to the highest level since 1995. GBP/JPY and CHF/JPY HFM - GBPJPY 30-Minute Chart Even though the USD/JPY is one of the most popular assets to be traded, other currency pairs are also interesting. Investors should note that the Federal Reserve is also looking to hike interest rates, and it's a safe haven currency. For this reason, at times, the US Dollar may also experience strong gains. The US Dollar is the second-best-performing currency this year after the Australian Dollar. By contrast, the Swiss Franc and British Pound are among the weakest-performing currencies of 2026 so far. The GBP/JPY is trading lower this morning falling particularly in the first half of the Asian session. The pair is currently rated ‘Strong Sell’ on the 30-minute, hourly, 4-hour, and daily timeframes. However, on smaller timeframes, traders are cautious of the retracement that is forming. The RSI is not indicating an oversold price due to the retracement, while the MACD remains negative. Importantly, the price remains below the 20, 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages. The price is trading at a key support level from earlier in the year, but if the price drops again below 207.383, sell indications remain. The CHF/JPY is witnessing a similar condition to the GBP/JPY but is experiencing stronger bearish momentum. However, on larger timeframes, CHF/JPY is witnessing an oversold indication on the RSI. Key Takeaways: The Japanese Yen has strengthened to its highest level since February. Expectations are increasing for further Bank of Japan rate hikes before year-end. Higher oil prices are adding to inflation risks and increasing the importance of a stronger Yen. GBP/JPY and CHF/JPY remain under downward pressure as the Yen continues to strengthen. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
Date: 7th September 2026. NFP Shocks Markets as Fed, ECB, and Middle East Risks Take Focus. Strong US employment data makes an interest rate hike almost certain, pressuring Gold, certain stocks, and supporting the Dollar. At the same time, Middle East tensions continue to rise as Iran and the US target tankers. Lastly, Germany, the largest European economy, has seen its far-right party win in regional elections. The US will witness lower order flow due to today’s bank holiday. Nonetheless, the market is still likely to witness high volatility as investors price in recent developments. In addition to this, investors will now turn their attention to the upcoming European Central Bank rate decision, US producer inflation, and consumer inflation. German Election, European Central Bank and the Euro The Euro is trading slightly higher during this morning’s Asian session, but this is a minor bullish bias. Investors are attempting to remain calm as local elections continue to indicate a switch towards the far right. According to economists, far-right governments do not necessarily mean a negative impact on the Euro, but instability would. For example, if governments are unable to form in Germany, Italy, and Spain, similar to France, the Euro could come under pressure. Nonetheless, for now, the far-right win in Germany is not negatively impacting the Euro. In fact, the Euro is finding some support from expectations that the European Central Bank will increase rates on Thursday. Markets expect the ECB to increase its main refinancing rate from 2.40% to 2.65%. This would take the ECB’s rate to an 18-month high. The EUR this morning is performing particularly well against the NZD, but as the NZD is the worst-performing of the day so far, traders should be cautious of a correction. Currently, the EUR/NZD is above the 200-bar moving average on the 5-minute chart and is above the VWAP. However, the RSI is trading in the negative zone, which again may indicate a correction. If the price rises above 1.97770, bullish signals can remain. If the price falls below the 1.97543 support level, indications will turn bearish. Gold and NFP The latest US non-farm payrolls report showed a much stronger-than-expected employment sector. The release was the largest surprise since April 2026, with the economy adding 162,000 jobs in August, almost three times the market forecast of around 56,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. The labour force participation rate rose to 61.6%, providing further evidence that labour market conditions remain relatively resilient. According to economists, there is now very little reason for the Federal Reserve not to hike interest rates. Now, 60% of investors believe the Federal Reserve will hike on 16 September. The stronger employment data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at its September meeting, particularly as policymakers continue to monitor elevated inflation. Following the report, US Treasury yields and the Dollar moved higher, while Gold came under pressure, as markets increased their probability of a September rate hike. Attention now shifts to the upcoming US inflation data, which could be decisive for the Fed’s next move. Gold came under instant pressure after the release, falling 2.40% in a period of 45 minutes. However, Gold has not maintained its bearish momentum, but still retains its bearish bias on certain timeframes, such as the 30-minute chart. On the 5-minute timeframe, the price is attempting to break above the 200-bar moving average. If the price breaks above this level at $4,418.50, bullish signals may materialise. HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart A positive factor for Gold is that the US Dollar Index is trading lower this morning. However, traders should note that certain price movements may be due to low order flow because of the US bank holiday. Crude Oil - Middle East Tensions Rise The US-Iran conflict escalated further over the weekend as Iran said it targeted three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, describing the attacks as retaliation for US strikes on Iranian vessels. The US had earlier hit three Iranian crude carriers after American warships came under ballistic missile attack. The latest developments have sharply increased risks to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This has pushed oil prices higher and raised concerns over prolonged supply disruptions from the Middle East. Crude oil prices came close to reaching a new monthly high but have found resistance. This comes as Iran says negotiations with Oman are progressing positively despite the weekend’s developments. HFM - Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart Key Takeaways: Strong NFP boosts Fed hike expectations: The US added 162,000 jobs in August, well above forecasts, increasing expectations for a September rate hike. Gold remains under pressure: Gold fell sharply following the NFP release as Treasury yields and the US Dollar strengthened, although some recovery attempts have emerged. Oil supported by Middle East tensions: Escalating US-Iran tensions and attacks involving oil tankers have increased concerns over potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. ECB and European politics in focus: The Euro remains supported by expectations of an ECB rate hike, while Germany’s regional election results add further political uncertainty for investors. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
Date: 4th September 2026. Waller's Dovish Pivot Keeps the Dollar on the Back Foot Into Payrolls. Risk assets extended their advance overnight as traders further pared back the odds of a September Fed hike following dovish remarks from Governor Christopher Waller. The Dollar sits near multi-month lows, the Yen is having its best week since the July intervention, and havens like Gold are holding firm even as oil grinds higher on Middle East supply risk. All eyes now turn to today’s payrolls report to settle the debate. USD: Payrolls Need to Shock to Change the Story The Dollar’s slide has further to run unless today’s jobs report delivers a genuine upside surprise. Governor Waller told a Reuters NEXT event that he could support holding rates steady this month if incoming data confirms the disinflation trend already underway, a notable break from Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish tone last week. He pointed to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, cooling to 3.7% in July from 4.1% in May, as evidence the trend is intact, and added that he doesn't expect payrolls to deviate much from the recent trend of a stable but unspectacular labour market. Markets have listened. Pricing for a 25-basis-point September hike has fallen to roughly a coin flip, down sharply from the high 60s just a couple of days ago, and a broad Dollar index is trading at its softest levels since May. Consensus looks for around 56,000 jobs after last month’s shock decline, with unemployment seen steady at 4.1%, a number the Fed still reads as close to full employment. A print in line with or below consensus should keep the Dollar offered into the weekend; only a genuinely hot number is likely to revive hike bets meaningfully, given the Fed's stated focus is now squarely on the inflation side of its mandate rather than labour slack. Treasuries have caught a bid alongside the Dollar’s weakness. Two-year yields are holding near 4.33%, off their 20-month highs, while the curve has bull-steepened as the front end outperforms. Ten- and 30-year yields have also eased modestly, though longer-dated paper remains hostage to inflation and fiscal-supply concerns that a single jobs report won't resolve. JPY: Best Week Since the Intervention, but the Move May Be Maturing The Yen has been the standout story this week, rallying as much as 2% in a single session and putting it on track for its strongest week since Japan and the US jointly intervened to arrest its slide. USD/JPY has pulled back from a low near 155.30 to trade around 156.30 as some of the move gets pared, but the underlying driver, rapidly rising conviction in a Bank of Japan hike this month, remains intact. Swaps now imply roughly a 75% chance of a September move, with an increase fully priced by October, and speculation is building that policymakers could even deliver back-to-back hikes or a larger single step. Speculation that Japan’s pension giants, including the GPIF, may lean further into domestic bonds has also helped anchor the long end of the JGB curve, with super-long-term yields easing even as global yields stay elevated. That combination, a more hawkish BoJ and firmer demand for domestic duration, is a supportive backdrop for the Yen, though positioning is less stretched than during prior Yen squeezes, which argues for consolidation rather than an immediate extension towards the 150-152 area. Commodities: Oil's Geopolitical Bid, Gold Steady Brent crude is holding just above $95.50 per barrel and is on track for its biggest weekly gain since July, driven by renewed US-Iran tensions and fears of prolonged disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz. That geopolitical premium is one of the few forces working against the broader disinflation narrative the Fed is trying to build a case around. Gold, meanwhile, is consolidating near $4,470 per ounce after a 2% overnight rally, on course to finish the week roughly flat, a sign that havens are being supported more by real-yield declines than by any fresh flight-to-safety impulse. Risk Sentiment: Equities Extend Gains, Asia Leads The broader risk backdrop remains constructive. Wall Street’s rally on Waller's comments carried into Asia, where the regional equity gauge climbed around 1%, China's blue chips jumped 4%, and South Korea’s KOSPI rose 2%; Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 1.4% on the day but is still nursing a weekly loss of nearly 2% given the Yen's surge. Nasdaq and S&P futures point to a firmer US open, and European equities are set to open modestly higher too. Strategists caution that the picture is still finely balanced: with roughly two weeks to the Fed decision and mid-term elections looming, several see the risks to sentiment as skewed slightly to the downside from here, arguing for a degree of caution even as markets chase the dovish narrative. What to Watch Today’s US non-farm payrolls report (consensus 56,000, unemployment 4.1%) is the clear focus. A soft or in-line print should reinforce the Dollar-negative, Yen-positive, risk-on setup currently in place; a strong beat would revive September hike pricing quickly, given how far it has already fallen this week, and could trigger a sharper reversal in both rates and FX than the market is currently positioned for. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
Date: 3rd September 2026. Yen Surges, Oil Wavers, and Wall Street Holds Its Breath. Global markets opened Thursday in a distinctly jittery mood. Asian equities whipsawed, the Japanese Yen powered to its strongest level in nearly a month, oil pulled back from a volatile session tied to renewed US-Iran hostilities, and traders everywhere seemed to be marking time until Friday’s US jobs report. Here’s a breakdown of the biggest stories moving markets today , and what they could mean heading into the weekend. Asian Stocks Take Investors on a Rollercoaster Ride South Korean tech stocks were the epicentre of Thursday's volatility. The Kospi Index, often treated as a proxy for global AI investment sentiment, surged as much as 1.8% before abruptly reversing into a 1.9% decline, a swing of nearly four percentage points in a single session. The broader MSCI Asia-Pacific gauge followed a similar, if less dramatic, arc: up as much as 1.2%, nearly flat by midday, then closing 0.6% higher. Meanwhile, outside Japan, the region’s shares climbed roughly 0.8%, building on modest overnight gains from Wall Street. Futures for US and European equities stayed largely range-bound, suggesting traders are waiting for clearer signals before committing to a direction. The Yen’s Sharp Rally Has Everyone Watching Tokyo If there’s one story dominating trading desks this week, it's the Yen. The currency jumped as much as 0.9% in the prior session and extended that move on Thursday, touching roughly 157.3-157.5 per Dollar, its strongest level in nearly a month. The catalyst: increasingly hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan. Board member Hajime Takata suggested the central bank should be willing to raise rates nimbly rather than sticking to a fixed semiannual cadence, a comment analysts described as some of the most direct hawkish messaging yet from BoJ leadership. Markets have responded by fully pricing in a quarter-point hike at this month’s BoJ meeting, with only a small probability assigned to a larger 50-basis-point move. Strategists are split on whether Japanese authorities intervened to support the currency. Most analysts believe the move reflects genuine rate repricing rather than official action, noting that the scale of the shift was too modest to represent a coordinated intervention. Strength in Japan’s services sector, which expanded at its fastest pace in five months in August, added further fuel to the case for tighter policy. The Yen’s rally rippled across currency markets, dragging the euro and British pound lower against it, while the US Dollar index slipped for a second straight session. Oil Retreats as US-Iran Tensions Show Tentative Signs of Easing Crude prices pulled back after a turbulent session driven by fresh military exchanges between the United States and Iran, the most significant flare-up in the conflict since July, now in its seventh month. Brent crude eased towards roughly $94-95 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate slipped below $91, both retreating from highs not seen since late July. President Trump indicated that the renewed campaign against Iran would be short-lived, saying US forces had struck Iranian radar and missile systems along the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through the critical waterway remained thin, with shipping data showing only a handful of vessels transiting versus a typical 10-day average of around 13, though the US separately noted that Monday saw the largest volume of crude pass through the strait since the conflict began. Elsewhere in energy markets, European natural gas futures extended a four-day winning streak towards their highest close since early 2023, and copper prices in London crept closer to January’s record high. All Eyes on Friday's Jobs Report as Rate-Hike Bets Climb Behind the currency and commodity moves lies a bigger question: what will the Federal Reserve do next? Traders have sharply raised the odds of a September rate hike, with futures markets now pricing in roughly a 61-62% probability, up from just 37% a week earlier, following a disappointing private payrolls reading for August. New York Fed President John Williams tempered some of that enthusiasm, framing rising long-term yields as a sign of underlying economic strength rather than a reason to panic, while noting that he's still gathering data ahead of the Fed's next decision. Fed Governor Christopher Waller is due to speak next, and Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, expected to show a modest gain of around 56,000 jobs after July's surprise drop, could be the decisive data point. Treasury yields eased slightly from multi-decade highs, with the 10-year hovering near 4.77% and long-dated Japanese government bonds also pulling back from record levels after a well-received 30-year debt auction. Gold, meanwhile, extended its safe-haven rally, climbing more than 1% to trade above $4,430 an ounce. The Bottom Line Thursday’s session captured a market caught between competing forces: a hawkish BoJ pulling the Yen higher, an uneasy ceasefire-adjacent moment in the Middle East pulling oil lower, and a Federal Reserve that markets increasingly expect to tighten policy this month. With Friday’s payrolls report now the market's central focus, expect volatility to persist until traders get the clarity they are looking for. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
Date: 2nd September 2026. Oil Breaks $90 as Gold and NASDAQ Face Growing Pressure. On Tuesday, the trend from Monday continued with bond yields rising to a new high and oil prices breaking above $90 per barrel. In addition, investors are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Fed interest rate hike later this month. As a result, the stock market and Gold came under pressure, while the US Dollar maintained support. The underlying driving factor remains oil prices and the Middle East crisis. Tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, with further attacks on two tankers. Higher oil prices are prompting inflation fears, which in effect are pushing yields and interest rates higher. According to the Chicago exchange, almost 70% of the market is pricing in a September hike. Oil Prices and the Middle East Conflict The US launched a new round of strikes against Iran on 1 September, targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) military infrastructure around the Strait of Hormuz, including air-defence systems, radar, communications, and capabilities used to threaten shipping. Washington said the operation was a response to recent Iranian attempts to attack commercial vessels and US forces in the region. Tensions intensified further after two oil supertankers carrying Saudi crude were struck by projectiles while attempting to exit the Strait of Hormuz. The Saudi-operated Sidr and the Senegal Prosperity were hit within minutes of each other, with each tanker carrying around two million barrels of crude oil. Crude oil prices rose throughout all sessions on Monday, with few attempts to retrace lower. The price also rose during this morning’s Asian session, but has since lost momentum. The higher oil prices are supporting the US Dollar Index, which is now close to breaking above 100.00. Even though the bullish momentum weakened this morning, the price remains firmly above the key moving averages. In addition to this, the bearish correction has also not continued to decline to a lower low. For this reason, the price is not switching to a bearish indication. If the price breaks again above $91.30, the asset is likely to see stronger bullish indications materialise. HFM - Crude Oil 30-Minute Chart Gold Under Pressure With $4,000 as a Potential Target Gold has now fully corrected the bullish impulse wave seen in the second half of August. The downward momentum is due to the rise in oil prices, a stronger US Dollar, and expectations of interest rate hikes. However, for Gold more needs to be taken into account. Under the current market conditions of higher inflation and interest rates, Gold can potentially continue to decline. For example, key support levels can be seen at $4,000. However, if bond yields, which continue to rise, trigger a market shock, investors are likely to turn to Gold, which is not related to the US government. For this reason, traders need to consider the possibility of a decline as well as a rebound. For the time being, the price in the short and medium term continues to provide a bearish bias. Gold continues to show bearish indications in the short term, with downside pressure intact while the price stays below the $4,400–$4,450 resistance area. The price trades below the moving average and VWAP, but trades in a neutral area on the RSI and MACD. For the medium term, the outlook is more neutral. A recovery above $4,500 would improve the bullish structure and could bring $4,700 back into focus, while a sustained break below $4,300 would signal a deeper correction back down to $4,000. HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart NASDAQ Hit By Low Risk Sentiment The bearish pressure on the stock market is clear, with only positive earnings and the AI trend keeping stocks afloat. The NASDAQ has fallen as inflation and interest rates hit consumer sentiment, while geopolitics prompt a risk-off appetite. None of the global indices is trading higher on Tuesday, which gives a bearish bias. The VIX index provides a neutral indication, while the put-call ratio is again on the rise, indicating selling pressure. 86% of the most influential NASDAQ stocks fell on Monday. A key source of support for the NASDAQ came from Apple, its third-largest constituent, which rose 2.60%. According to analysts, without Apple’s gains, the index would likely have fallen below its previous support levels and seen a larger decline. A key support level for the NASDAQ is $28,889.20. In the short term, bearish signals from moving averages are likely to remain unless the price increases above $29,090. Key Takeaways: Oil breaks above $90 as US-Iran tensions escalate and two oil supertankers are struck near the Strait of Hormuz. Bond yields continue to rise, while markets increasingly price in the possibility of a Fed rate hike later this month. Gold remains under pressure, with $4,000 emerging as a potential downside target if the bearish trend continues. NASDAQ sentiment remains bearish, although Apple’s 2.60% gain helped prevent a deeper decline. The US Dollar remains supported by higher yields, rising oil prices, and expectations of tighter Fed policy. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
Date: 31st August 2026. Jackson Hole Hawks and New Middle East Clashes. The US and Iran exchanged fire for the first time since July, quickly driving oil prices back above $85 per barrel. According to reports, the US struck rocket launchers on Larak Island, located near the key Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. Market sentiment had been improving over the previous week as oil fell below $80 and NVIDIA’s earnings report beat expectations. Economists also continued to expect the Federal Reserve to pause in September. However, as crude oil prices have remained above $80 per barrel for three weeks, hopes for a pause are weakening. Jackson Hole - Warsh Increases the Hawkish Tone Other than the geopolitical developments, US monetary policy is particularly interesting and is triggering volatility among US Dollar pairs. The Fed Chair’s speech on 28 August was significantly more hawkish than most analysts were expecting. According to Mr Warsh, inflation remains too high, while the economy continues to show resilience. July PCE inflation was running at 3.7% year-on-year, and Warsh said recent data had not convinced him that underlying inflation pressures were improving sufficiently. At the same time, he described economic activity as strong, supported by stable labour markets, solid business investment, and healthy corporate profits. This gives the Fed less reason to tolerate persistent inflation out of concern that tighter policy could push the economy into recession. The Chair said credit and lending markets showed few signs that current monetary policy was restraining the economy. This was particularly important because it suggests the current 3.50%-3.75% Federal Funds Rate might not be restrictive enough. Economists view this as an indication that interest rates need to rise in order for inflation to come down. US-Iran Clashes Push Oil Prices Higher US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, near the Strait of Hormuz. US officials said Revolutionary Guard forces were preparing to launch rockets carrying sea mines into the key shipping route. Iran reported casualties from the attack and subsequently retaliated by launching ballistic missiles towards US bases in Jordan. Reports indicated that nearly all incoming missiles were intercepted, with no significant impact. The confrontation is increasing concerns over further escalation and potential disruption to shipping. Crude Oil - Back Above $86! Crude oil opened with a bullish price gap measuring 1.70%. The price thereafter rose even further above $86, but has since lost momentum. However, even with the retracement, the price is maintaining a bullish price indication. The price is remaining above the trendline and moving average. However, the price is slightly below the VWAP, though this may indicate the possibility of entering at a competitive price. While the price on the 5-minute timeframe remains above the 200-bar simple moving average, buy signals are likely to remain intact. HFM - Crude Oil 30-Minute Chart US Dollar - US Dollar Finds Support But Retraces The US Dollar is the worst-performing currency of the day as it loses some of last week’s gains. However, the currency is the best-performing of the past week. The Dollar found support from the hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve, lower risk sentiment, and higher oil prices. At the start of the European session, the best-performing currencies are the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and the Euro. For this reason, traders wishing to trade a weakening Dollar may opt for the EUR/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY. The worst-performing currencies are the Australian Dollar and the British Pound. A key factor for the US Dollar will be price volatility in the oil markets and this week’s employment data. If crude oil remains above $85 per barrel and NFP data beats expectations, the US Dollar may rise back to 100.00. However, the US Dollar is currently continuing to retrace lower so far. HFM - AUDUSD 30-Minute Chart Key Takeaways: US-Iran tensions have escalated again following the first direct exchange of strikes since July. Crude Oil has moved back above $85 per barrel, increasing concerns over potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh adopted a more hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, stressing that inflation remains too high. Higher interest rate expectations have provided support to the US Dollar, despite the current retracement. This week’s US employment data, particularly NFP, will be a key driver of Fed expectations and market volatility. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
Date: 20th August 2026. Historic US Intervention Sees Gold Spike More Than 4%. A historic day for the US and for global banking and finance. The US Dollar fell to its lowest point since the first half of May 2026 and Gold saw its largest increase in two months. The US Treasury, for the first time in decades, intervened in the bond market to purposely lower yields. In addition to this, Trump told journalists that the economic plan for Iran is starting soon. The US Treasury is a regular buyer of US bonds, but not in the same way as the Fed and not to influence the market. The Treasury would normally purchase bonds in order to manage its debt maturity profile. However, the Treasury is seen as attempting to apply unconventional pressure to lower yields and reduce mortgage interest rates. This puts the government at odds with the Federal Reserve again. HFM - US Dollar 4-Hour Chart Trump Economic Plan Keeps Oil Above $85 Trump has announced a new ‘economic warfare’ campaign against Iran, describing it as an ‘economic D-Day’ aimed at further isolating Tehran and forcing it to accept US demands. The plan will include sanctions, financial restrictions, and pressure on Iran’s oil trade. Experts advise that this will include targeting not only Iranian entities but also foreign banks, shipping companies, and countries that help Iran bypass sanctions. As a result, crude oil prices remain above $85 per barrel for a third day. US Treasury vs The Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve traditionally oversees the condition of interest rates, bond yields, and economic stability. What investors do not want to see from the US Treasury is unpredictability, yet this is what they saw. This is the first time in US history that the US government has deliberately bought long-term bonds to calm a surge in yields. The Treasury announced that it would double certain long-term Treasury bond buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The move is specifically targeting bonds with maturities between 10 and 30 years. This came after the 30-year yield surged above 5.3%, its highest level since 2007. This indicates to markets that high bond yields are worrying US economists and that the government fears yields may become ‘out of control’. A higher fiscal deficit and higher yields can trigger a global recession if the trend continues. As a result, investors sold the Dollar and opted for Gold. The move suggests traders are seeking alternative safe-haven assets to reduce exposure. Simultaneously, investors are worried that Japan will have to sell US Treasury bonds in order to fund further currency interventions. This could further increase US bond yields and create a recurring issue for the US. Higher bond yields would normally support the US Dollar. However, if yields reach levels that trigger fear over fiscal stability, investors tend to turn to alternatives. Key Correlation Returns Wednesday saw the traditional correlation between the US Dollar and Gold return after both fell on Tuesday. This was because investors were simultaneously concerned about rising inflation, bond yields, and the lack of Federal Reserve reaction. More information on this can be found here. However, with the Treasury’s historic move, investors are less concerned about inflation and more concerned about fiscal policy and government debt levels. As a result, the correlation has returned, with the US Dollar declining and Gold rising. Gold - Technique Analysis Gold’s technical picture turned sharply bullish yesterday, with XAU/USD rising more than 4% and breaking decisively through the $4,455–$4,555 resistance zone. The move created a strong bullish daily candle and confirmed a breakout from the recent consolidation. The price also pushed above the 200-day moving average, and most momentum-based indications are pointing to upward price movement. The US Dollar continues to be one of the worst-performing currencies of the day, which is positive for Gold. In addition to this, Silver is also increasing during this morning’s Asian session, indicating that demand is across multiple metals, not only Gold. If Gold prices decline below $4,471.80, buy signals will significantly weaken in the short to medium term. Remaining above this price will continue to indicate that buyers are controlling the price action. HFM - Gold 1-Hour Chart Possible targets for Gold in the short term remain the psychological price and resistance levels between $4,500 and $4,529. Key Takeaways: The US Treasury’s intervention in long-term bonds marks a major shift in government involvement in financial markets. The US Dollar has fallen sharply as concerns increase over fiscal stability and government debt. Gold gained more than 4%, breaking key resistance levels and strengthening its bullish technical outlook. Oil remains above $85 as the US prepares a new economic pressure campaign against Iran. Markets are increasingly focused on rising bond yields, fiscal risks, and growing tension between Treasury policy and the Federal Reserve. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
Date: 19th August 2026. Why Gold, Stocks and the Dollar are Declining at the Same Time. US bond yields slightly fell during the US session to the relief of most investors. However, the stock market, Gold and the US Dollar continue to decline despite the cooling yields. Gold, the US Dollar and even the equities market are normally correlated and do not usually simultaneously move lower. However, what we are witnessing is not a typical “risk-off” move. Instead, it reflects a combination of weaker US growth expectations, a bond-market selloff, and renewed inflation concerns. This is causing the US Dollar, Gold, and stocks to decline simultaneously. Behind this scenario are higher oil prices and weaker employment data, which are raising concerns that the Federal Reserve may find it increasingly difficult to bring inflation under control without putting further pressure on the economy. For this reason, investors will continue to pay close attention to the bond yields, oil prices and also the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium. The Jackson Hole event will take place towards the end of next week. HFM - Lack of Traditional Correlation On Tuesday 18th Gold to Rebound as Yields Retrace and Dollar Continues to Fall? High bond yields do not instantly mean that Gold will decline, but if yields continue to rise in the longer-term, Gold can come under immense pressure. A good example of this was in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Bond yields rose sharply and Gold saw a quick change in trend where it fell by 15% at times. Bond yields are retracing lower due to the US pausing tariffs on Canada, a key trade partner for the US. The White House halted the duties after Canada committed to removing discriminatory measures affecting US autos, dairy, and alcohol. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the two sides have made substantial progress, although important work remains. Neither side disclosed whether earlier sticking points would be resolved. The US Dollar Index on Tuesday moved sideways and this morning is declining by more than 0.20%. Currently, the US Dollar is the worst performing currency of the day along with the Australian Dollar. However, Gold prices are yet to witness sustained bullish momentum in response. If the US Dollar continues to decline, bullish price movement for Gold will become more likely particularly if crude oil prices fall lower. Currently, crude oil is trading 0.50% higher. HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart Gold on the 5-Minute timeframe is still trading below the 200-bar simple moving average and is currently trading at the VWAP. For this reason, the price remains neutral, but this indication may turn bullish if the price rises above $4,352.35. This is a key price for bullish price action on smaller timeframes. However, if the price falls below $4,339.00 and the US Dollar rebounds, buy signals would fully fade. S&P 500 - Meta Stocks Struggle as Various States Dispute the Company’s Ethics and Intentions The selloff seen overnight for the US equities measured 0.71%, a moderate decline, but not a unique fall to indicate a larger longer-term selloff. However, an interesting element to the decline was that the fall took place with virtually minimal retracements and attempts to rise. The decline is largely related to high bond yields, worries over inflation and also the tech sector. The largest declines are largely from technology companies such as Meta, Micron Technologies and NVIDIA. Meta stocks saw a decline of 4.45% due to its largest legal trial starting in the US. In the opening statements on Tuesday, attorneys general from four states alleged Meta engineered Facebook and Instagram to be addictive and damaging to young adults while misrepresenting their safety. This is part of a broader case brought by 29 states. Analysts advise Meta is likely to continue witnessing mounting legal cases globally. In addition to this, bans on platforms for under 16s are also likely to be introduced by more countries. A positive factor for the stock market this morning is the decline in bond yields. However, bond yields, oil prices and the US Dollar will continue to impact the S&P 500. In terms of the market’s risk appetite, the VIX is currently trading 0.35% higher. The increase is not positive for the S&P 500, however, the VIX is not high enough to point to significant downward volatility. The put-to-call ratio is at 0.74 which provides a bearish bias but is not indicating a stock market crash. HFM - S&P 500 30-Minute Chart Key Takeways: Gold, the USD and stocks are declining together, reflecting weaker growth expectations, inflation concerns and pressure from elevated bond yields. Bond yields have eased slightly, helped by the US pausing tariffs on Canada, but investors remain focused on oil prices and the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium. Gold remains technically neutral, with $4,352.35 acting as a key bullish level. However, price action will depend on the US Dollar, bond yields but also oil prices. The S&P 500 remains under pressure, led by technology stocks. While VIX and put-to-call data point to bearish sentiment but not extreme market stress. Meta shares fell 4.45% as a major US trial began, with four states alleging that Facebook and Instagram were designed to be addictive and harmful to young users. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
Date: 18th August 2026. Bond Market Fears Intensify as Risk-Off Sentiment Takes Hold. As President Trump refuses to prolong the US-Iran extension, markets turn their attention to bond yields and oil prices. Prospects for peace in the Middle East remain limited, with the White House appearing to pause temporarily to replenish resources before potentially escalating tensions again. Economists and analysts are anxious about the level of debt-to-GDP which looks to continue to grow. Country debt levels are on the rise globally as countries are spending considerably more on defence. At the same time higher inflation is eating into consumer spending. As a result, bond sales are slumping and yields are rising considerably. Bond Yields Trigger Risk-Off Sentiment Sovereign borrowing costs are rising sharply across major markets, with 30-year US Treasury yields, French government borrowing costs and German yields all climbing to elevated levels. Analysts and fund managers are increasing their exposure to short-term borrowing in order to avoid high interest rates. The increase reflects broader global pressures, including geopolitical fragmentation, concerns over government spending and long-term shifts in market structure and demographics. Higher bond yields are creating a risk-off sentiment due to investors fearing a debt-crisis and even an economic downturn. All global indices are trading lower while the VIX, Dollar and Oil prices rebound. This will be a key issue for the US government and its fiscal policy. Some US firms are increasingly tapping overseas bond markets, with one example being Alphabet Inc.’s decision to market its debut Australian dollar debt issue of $3.6 billion. Crude Oil Rises As The US Do Not Renew Its Current Ceasefire With Iran Positive dynamics are supported by a decrease in the probability of a peace agreement between the US and Iran soon. The deal announced earlier in the month by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent never took place and instead, the parties demanded reparation payments from each other and intensified attacks on civilian tankers. As a result, a long blockade and an expansion of the energy crisis are expected. President Trump has told his administration not to renew the ceasefire with Iran and has also warned Oman. As a result, oil prices are trading higher over the past 24 hours. Yesterday, the president said that the US still held leverage over Iran, pointing to the naval blockade of Iranian ports. He also repeated his proposal to declare the waterway US territory, arguing that Washington maintained full control over it. This morning, Crude Oil prices rose above $85 for the first time in August. If oil prices remain elevated, inflation is likely to become sticky and increase the possibility of an interest rate hike in October. As a result, the US Dollar may continue to rebound and stocks to decline. HFM - Crude Oil 30-Minute Chart NASDAQ Falls Over Key Economic and Fiscal Concerns The NASDAQ is declining this morning and looks likely to form a third day of consecutive falls. The NASDAQ is coming under pressure from bond yields and oil prices which are triggering a lower market risk appetite. The VIX Index this morning is trading 1.50% higher and the Put to Call ratio is again on the rise. This is currently verifying the risk-off sentiment. Investors fear that the cost of debt and higher debt-to-GDP adds an additional level of risk to the stock market. In addition to this, higher oil prices and lower employment data globally also points to risks from both the monetary policy and consumer demand. If oil prices remain above $85 per barrel and bond yields do not subside, the NASDAQ remains at risk of further downside. Two key support levels can be seen at $29,139 and $29,435. HFM - NASDAQ 30-Minute Chart In the short-term, the NASDAQ is trading below key Moving Averages and is forming lower lows and highs. This supports the bearish bias but the price has slightly retraced higher. For this reason, investors will be looking for the price to again decline below $29,750 in order to witness stronger sell indications from the price action and indicators. If the NASDAQ is to rebound upwards, the resistance levels can be seen at $29,852 and $30,207. Key Takeaways: US-Iran tensions remain elevated, with the US not extending the ceasefire and prospects for a near-term peace agreement appearing limited. Global bond yields are rising sharply as investors worry about growing government debt, higher defence spending, inflation and the risk of an economic slowdown. Crude oil has climbed above $85, raising concerns that inflation could remain persistent and increase the likelihood of tighter monetary policy. The NASDAQ remains under pressure as higher oil prices, rising bond yields and weaker risk appetite weigh on equities, keeping the short-term outlook bearish. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
Date: 17th August 2026. Weak Dollar Triggers New Trends, But What Risks Remain? The US Dollar declines for a second consecutive day reaching a key support level for the currency. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause for the upcoming months are driving the Dollar lower. At the same time, Gold and the stock market continue to gain bullish momentum and reach previous highs. However, economists are paying close attention to bond yields, which continue to remain at a significant high and oil still trades above $80 per barrel. Over the weekend, Israel has attacked Iran’s proxy in Lebanon and Trump will soon announce the “economic plan” for Iran. While oil prices remain above $80 and US bond yields remain high, the risk of a quick sudden decline is still elevated. Historic Oil Disruptions US Dollar Weakens To Key Levels The US Dollar is the worst-performing currency of the day despite higher oil prices and higher bond yields. The decline is driven by investors pricing in no rate hike in September or October. A prolonged pause has become likely for the upcoming 2 months due to a slightly weaker consumer inflation and considerably lower producer inflation. However, investors should keep in mind that the Dollar index is trading at a key support level at 99.25. This level was tested on July 31st and August 7th. However, the price is not forming a descending triangle pattern but rather a range bound condition. This means that buyers continue to hold strength at times. On the other hand, as the asset continues to retest the support level, the level may weaken and prompt a breakout. Even though the Dollar is trading clearly lower, investors should be cautious of high oil prices and bond yields which normally push the price higher. The best performing currencies of the day so far are the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Swiss Franc. NASDAQ Rises But Risk Remain The NASDAQ moved higher, but not at the same pace as the decline seen in July. A neutral Federal Reserve is driving the bullish impulse wave. However, the fact that the Dollar is declining but yields are rising indicates key concerns for stocks. Investors fear the huge government borrowing, that inflation will remain high for years and that hikes will return later in the year. Analysts advise that the AI trend will remain bumpy and that traders should be cautious of the above triggering a sudden decline. The key resistance level stands at $30,750, but NVIDIA’s earnings towards the end of the month will also influence the long-term price movement. This week, the main earnings report release will come from Walmart which is the 12th most influential stock for the NASDAQ. Walmart stocks rose 3.90% over the past week. Gold Turns Bullish In The Short-term The key factors for Gold are inflation and the Middle East. The US plans to hit Iran's economy hard, with President Donald Trump saying he doesn't care whether the conflict ends before the November US midterm elections. Scott Bessent also advises the move will hit Iran hard and will be the harshest ever seen. If the move keeps oil prices higher for longer, Gold may come under pressure again. HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart The 30-minute and 1-hour signals are currently both “Strong Buy” according to moving averages. Gold also broke above the previous $4,380 resistance, while remaining above its short-term EMA structure. If the price rises above $4,406.00, which is the level where the current impulse wave surpasses 65% of the previous retracement, bullish signals will strengthen. For bullish signals to be valid, traders will also be monitoring whether the Dollar remains closer to 99.00. Bond yields will also need to avoid rebounding during the day. Key Takeaways: The US Dollar falls for a second day as markets increasingly price in a Fed pause. The US Dollar Index is testing key support near 99.25. Gold and the NASDAQ remain bullish in the short-term, supported by a weaker Dollar and reduced expectations for rate hikes. High US bond yields and oil prices above $80 remain major risks and could trigger sudden reversals across markets. Middle East tensions and Trump’s upcoming economic measures against Iran could keep oil and inflation risks elevated. NVIDIA and Walmart earnings remain a key catalyst for the NASDAQ. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. 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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
Date: 14th August 2026. PPI Boosts Market Sentiment, Pushing Stocks Higher. The latest inflation data from Wednesday saw the possibility of an interest rate hike fall slightly. However, an even more positive development for the stock market is the latest producer price index. The first reaction to the release of the Producer Price Index was minimal, but volatility soon kicked in as the US session opened. The Producer Price Index did not rise at all in July, whereas analysts were expecting a moderate rise of 0.2%. As a result, producer inflation fell from 5.5% to 4.7%, significantly lower than market expectations. The PPI YoY continues to read higher than the Federal Reserve’s target but has now seen three consecutive months of declines. In addition to this, the Core Producer Price Index rose 0.2%, lower than the 0.3% consensus. The lower producer inflation, along with the decline in oil prices is supportive of the global stock market. Crude oil prices have fallen more than 2% over the past 24 hours and any further decline could indicate a prolonged pause by the Federal Reserve. The possibility of an interest rate hike in September continues to fall, from 40% on Wednesday to 32% this morning. As a result, sentiment towards the stock market could rise further. However, analysts continue to advise that up-and-down volatility in the medium to longer term is likely to continue due to the AI trend, high earnings, and fear over AI-spending. Cisco and Applied Materials Earnings Report Cisco, which made its quarterly earnings report public on Wednesday, is the 15th most influential stock in the NASDAQ. Applied Materials Inc. is the 16th most influential and together they make up 2.10% of the NASDAQ. Cisco’s latest earnings report was strong, with fourth-quarter revenue rising 18% year-on- year to $17.3 billion, beating the high end of its guidance, while non-GAAP EPS increased 23% to $1.22. Cisco also reported a 35% increase in total product orders, with networking orders up 40%. Looking ahead, the company expects $72.2–$73.4 billion in revenue, suggesting continued growth. However, due to AI spending and the slightly lower gross margin are triggering a sell-off for the time being. Applied Material stock has fallen 5% after the company announced its quarterly report, weakening the bullish momentum of the NASDAQ. Applied Material Inc. is experiencing a similar reaction to most stocks within this earnings season. The company saw both earnings and revenue beat expectations, but the stock declines suggest that the results were simply not high enough. PPI Report Boost The NASDAQ The NASDAQ rose more than 1.30% in response to the Producer Price Index reading considerably lower than expectations. The inflation rate decline did little to change analysts’ views on upcoming interest rate decisions. However, Thursday’s PPI report was seen as particularly positive for the stock market. The price of the NASDAQ is now trading above key moving averages on most timeframes and is yet to become overbought. In addition to this, the VIX continues to trade lower, indicating strong investor sentiment for now. However, the price this morning is trading slightly below the VWAP. Therefore, buy signals will strengthen once bullish momentum is regained. Lastly, 76% of the NASDAQ’s most influential companies rose on Thursday, providing a further bullish indication from component analysis. HFM - NASDAQ 30-Minute Chart Key Takeaway Points: Inflation is cooling: July PPI was flat, lowering September Fed hike odds from 40% to 32%, which is bullish for stocks. Earnings are strong, but expectations are higher: Cisco and Applied Materials beat estimates, yet both sold off as investors demanded more. NASDAQ remains bullish: It jumped 1.3%+, trades above key moving averages, and remains below overbought levels. Momentum needs confirmation: The VIX is falling, but NASDAQ is slightly below VWAP, so short-term volatility remains likely. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
Date: 13th August 2026. US Inflation Falls to 3.4% as Dollar Strengthens and Gold Struggles. US inflation fell from 3.5% to 3.4% in line with analysts’ expectations. The decline at first had a positive impact on Gold and the stock market, but they could not maintain momentum. Even though the decline remains a positive factor for the economy, 3.4% is still seen as a considerably high inflation rate and a weak decline. The stock market and metals experienced volatile trading as buyers and sellers competed for control. However, the US Dollar is emerging as the clear winner as the currency rises to a two-week high. With inflation falling by only 0.1% and oil prices remaining above $83 per barrel, demand for the Dollar remains strong. Currently, the Japanese Yen is the best-performing currency due to a change in stance from the Japanese administration. However, the US Dollar is firmly the second-best-performing currency of the day, and the US Dollar Index is only 0.07% away from reaching 100.00. Gold Struggles for Momentum Despite Lower September Rate-Hike Expectations Due to the inflation rate decline and weak employment data, the possibility of a September rate hike has fallen to 34%. This is considerably lower than in previous weeks. However, the possibility of a rate hike later in the year has not faded. This, along with geopolitical tensions, is resulting in the US Dollar increasing in value and applying further pressure on metals. According to President Trump, the US is changing its tactics to bring Iran to the negotiation table. The US will now increase economic pressure on Iran rather than take military action. The renewed focus on economic measures highlights the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Iran’s position and is also supporting the Dollar. This could continue to influence oil prices, shipping activity, and broader market sentiment. Gold is trading downwards on Thursday after rising to a new two-month high. The price has fallen to form a bearish breakout but has not yet fully formed a trend formation. On smaller timeframes, the price is trading below key moving averages, which indicates downward price movement. However, on larger timeframes, the price remains at a neutral level. The US Dollar Index is trading close to the psychological price of 100.00. If the Dollar rises above this level, Gold may struggle to regain bullish momentum. The key support level for Gold can be seen at $4,359.55. Traders will monitor whether the price rebounds off this level. If the price breaks below this level, bearish signals may potentially strengthen. HFM - Gold 20-Minutes USDJPY - Japan’s Government Supports Faster Rate Hikes Due to Currency Weakness The best-performing currency of the day is the Japanese Yen, as investors price in the change in tone from the Japanese government. In terms of the USDJPY price pattern, the price is forming an ascending triangle pattern, indicating that it is not able to maintain bearish momentum. However, the pattern does not indicate a clear rise either. Japan’s government is reportedly supportive of an earlier Bank of Japan rate hike, potentially as soon as September or October, as policymakers seek to address persistent inflation and weakness in the Japanese Yen. The shift in government support adds pressure on the BOJ to accelerate monetary policy normalisation, particularly as recent data showed Japanese wholesale inflation remaining elevated, with producer prices rising 7.2% year-on-year in July. For financial markets, an earlier rate hike could provide meaningful support to the Yen and increase pressure on USDJPY, particularly given the recent focus on currency intervention. Investors are now likely to pay close attention to upcoming BOJ communication. Analysts continue to advise that if the Bank of Japan is looking to hike only once in 2026, this may not be enough to support the Yen. According to analysts, the BOJ must hike on two occasions to avoid being a victim of the carry trade. For this reason, as mentioned above, the upcoming BOJ communication will be vital for the Yen. HFM - USDJPY 20-Minute Chart Key Takeaways: US inflation fell to 3.4% as expected. However, the modest decline has done little to ease concerns over persistently high inflation. The US Dollar is emerging as the clear winner due to geopolitical tensions. The currency is reaching a two-week high as strong demand continues to pressure Gold and other metals. Gold is struggling to maintain momentum, with $4,359.55 acting as a key support level. The Dollar Index is approaching the psychological 100.00 level, which may further pressure Gold. The Japanese Yen is strengthening on expectations of faster rate hikes due to a supportive tone from the Japanese government. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
Date: 12th August 2026. CPI in Focus: What Investors Need to Know Ahead of the Inflation Release. Gold, oil, and the stock market are experiencing up-and-down swings, but the US Dollar remains in a steady correction. The price of the US Dollar Index has now fully corrected back to its pre-NFP price. Is this an indication as to what investors are expecting from the upcoming inflation release? Oil Prices Remain Stubbornly High Investors are evaluating new information regarding discussions between Iran and Oman. Oman is acting as a mediator in talks with the US over control of the Strait of Hormuz. The aim is to open the waterway for shipping, particularly oil exports. Kuwait, Oman, and Pakistan are advising that a deal is close. However, this cannot be seen in the price movement. This is due to reports that both sides are hardening their stance. Both sides are now advising that they are looking for compensation and the removal of sanctions. This is almost certainly not something the parties will agree to. In addition, the White House advised that the president did not travel on Air Force One during his visit to Turkey because of concerns about a possible assassination attempt by Iran. For this reason, investors do not expect shipping to return to normal any time soon. HFM - Crude Oil 30-Minute Chart Consumer Price Index - All Eyes on Inflation Markets are expecting the Consumer Price Index to rise by 0.1% meaning that the US inflation rate will fall from 3.5% to 3.4%. Investors are hoping that inflation falls more than expected, due to the hawkish nature of the Federal Reserve chairman. Inflation in the US has now been above its target for five consecutive years. This can risk normalising higher inflation, which can significantly damage economic stability. For this reason, if inflation does not decline the price of Gold and the stock market could come under pressure. At the same time, this could prompt the US Dollar Index to rise above 100.00 again. However, if the inflation rate falls by more than 0.1%, investors may price in a pause for September due to July’s weak NFP data. Certainly, the upcoming CPI release could play a significant role in determining the market’s near-term direction. Gold Trades Sideways But A Strong Dollar Worries Investors Gold is witnessing range-bound trading conditions, meaning no major trend. This reason for this is that investors are waiting for the CPI release before making any major amendments to portfolios. However, in the ultra-short-term the price of the metal is trading higher but not above yesterday’s high. At the same time, the US Dollar is also trading higher meaning investors should be cautious of bullish impulse waves unless the Dollar retraces. Currently, the resistance level for Gold can be seen at $4,436, which would be a possible first target for Gold if CPI reads weak. A medium-term target would be the $4,500 psychological level. However, in order for Gold to rise to this level, inflation must convince traders that there will be no interest rate adjustments any time soon. In contrast, the key support level can be seen at $4,097-$4,100. HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart USD/JPY - Only Two Rate Hikes Can Save the Yen? In the short term, USD/JPY retains a cautiously bullish bias, with recent price action showing attempts to recover after the sharp intervention-driven decline. However, upside momentum appears constrained near the 160.60-160.65 area. Whether this price will be broken will depend on today’s inflation rate. Currently, the best-performing currencies of the day are the US Dollar and the Pound. The worst-performing are the Japanese Yen, and New Zealand Dollar. According to analysts, the Japanese Yen is unlikely to see any significant improvement unless the Bank of Japan hikes interest rates twice in 2026. A single rate hike is unlikely to provide sufficient support for a sustained recovery. The current consensus is that the Bank will hike on one occasion, but this would not be enough to support a stronger rebound. NASDAQ - CPI and Earnings Key for the NASDAQ The tech-story is improving and the NASDAQ is trading close to its monthly highs. However, interest rates and inflation can derail the trend or boost it further. The performance of the NASDAQ over the next 24-hours will depend on the CPI release, Cisco earnings and tomorrow’s producer inflation. In the longer term, NVIDIA’s earnings on 26 August will also play a key role. Key Takeaways: CPI could set the tone for markets, influencing rate expectations and the US Dollar. Oil prices remain elevated as uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz continues. Gold is trading sideways, with the CPI release likely to determine its next major move. USD/JPY and the NASDAQ remain in focus, with inflation and interest rate expectations driving near-term direction. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.