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  1. Date: 3rd July 2026. Stocks Rebound, Dollar Falls, Gold Gains and USDJPY Stays Volatile. Global markets traded with a stronger tone on Friday as stocks recovered from the recent technology-led selloff. Investor sentiment improved after concerns eased that the artificial intelligence rally had moved too far too quickly. The recovery was visible across major regions. European equities continued to trade near record highs, Asian markets rebounded sharply, and US stock futures moved higher despite US cash markets being closed for the public holiday. At the same time, the US Dollar weakened further, helping Gold extend its gains and giving traders a more supportive backdrop across risk assets. For traders, today’s market analysis points to a short-term improvement in sentiment. However, the recovery still depends on upcoming earnings, Federal Reserve expectations, currency intervention risks and geopolitical developments. Stock Market Today: Global Equities Recover After Tech-Led Selloff The stock market today showed signs of stabilisation after recent pressure on technology and semiconductor shares. The rebound was led by stronger performance in Asia, where South Korea’s Kospi recovered sharply after the previous decline in chip-related stocks. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 moved higher and remained close to record levels, supported by gains in mining and utility stocks. US futures also advanced, with Nasdaq 100 futures outperforming as investors returned to technology-related exposure. The key question now is whether the artificial intelligence trade still has enough support to continue driving markets higher. After a strong second-quarter rally, investors will use the next earnings season to judge whether AI investment is producing real revenue growth, stronger margins and positive guidance. AI Stocks Remain in Focus Ahead of Earnings Season AI stocks remain one of the most important themes for global traders. The recent selloff showed that valuations are being questioned, especially in companies linked to semiconductors, memory chips and AI infrastructure. However, the rebound suggests that investors are not leaving the AI theme completely. Instead, the market appears to be becoming more selective. Traders may now focus less on hype and more on earnings quality, profitability and forward guidance. If major technology companies deliver strong results, the AI rally could regain momentum. If earnings disappoint, volatility may return quickly, especially in highly valued tech shares. US Dollar Forecast: Dollar Heads for Weakest Week Since April The US Dollar remained under pressure and was heading for its weakest weekly performance since April. The move followed softer-than-expected US jobs data, which reduced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate hike. A weaker US Dollar can support commodities, equities and some emerging market assets. It can also reduce pressure on currencies that have been struggling against the Dollar, including the Japanese Yen. For traders, the US Dollar forecast remains closely linked to upcoming US data. Stronger inflation or employment figures could revive rate hike expectations, while weaker data may extend Dollar weakness. Gold Price Today: Gold Extends Gains as Rate Expectations Ease Gold rose for a third consecutive session, trading around $4,170 per ounce. The Gold price today was supported by a weaker US Dollar and lower expectations for higher US interest rates. Gold often performs better when rate expectations decline because the metal does not offer yield. When the Dollar weakens and Treasury yields soften, Gold can become more attractive to traders and investors. The short-term outlook for Gold will likely depend on three main factors: US Dollar direction, Federal Reserve expectations and upcoming economic data. If the Dollar continues to weaken, Gold may remain supported. However, stronger US data could limit further gains. USDJPY Analysis: Japan Keeps Intervention Risk Alive USDJPY remains one of the most closely watched currency pairs. The Japanese Yen recovered slightly after touching a 40-year low earlier in the week, while Japanese officials continued to warn that they are ready to respond if needed. Japan’s Finance Minister said authorities remain in close contact with the US on foreign exchange issues. This kept intervention risk alive and made traders more cautious around USDJPY at elevated levels. The Yen’s weakness has become a major issue for Japan because it increases the cost of imported energy, raw materials and goods. This adds pressure on households and businesses and makes the policy outlook more complicated. For traders, USDJPY may remain highly sensitive to official comments, Bank of Japan expectations, Japanese bond yields and US Dollar movement. Any sign of direct intervention could trigger sharp short-term volatility. Brent Crude Oil Holds Near $72 as Supply Concerns Ease Brent crude oil traded near $72 per barrel as markets assessed supply flows and geopolitical risk. Increased tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz helped ease immediate supply concerns, while ongoing US-Iran talks kept traders cautious. Oil prices remain exposed to sudden headline risk. Any disruption around the Strait of Hormuz or escalation in the Middle East could quickly support crude prices. However, if supply conditions continue to improve, upside momentum may remain limited. For oil traders, the main focus remains on geopolitical headlines, tanker activity, supply expectations and demand signals from major economies. EU-US Trade Hits Record, but Sector Risks Remain EU-US goods trade reached a record €875 billion last year, showing that transatlantic trade remains strong despite tariff tensions. However, the headline figure does not tell the full story. European automotive exports to the US declined sharply, showing that tariffs are still hurting key sectors. At the same time, pharmaceutical and chemical exports helped support overall trade figures, especially from countries with strong exposure to those industries. This creates a more selective environment for equity traders. Strong trade numbers may support broader sentiment, but sector-level pressure remains important. Automotive stocks could remain vulnerable, while pharmaceutical and chemical exporters may continue to show resilience. Market Outlook: What Traders Should Watch Next Today’s market analysis shows a clear improvement in risk sentiment. Stocks are rebounding, the US Dollar is weakening, Gold is rising and Oil remains steady. However, traders should avoid assuming that volatility has fully disappeared. The main market drivers to watch are: Technology earnings and AI stock valuations US Dollar performance after softer jobs data Federal Reserve interest rate expectations Gold’s reaction to yields and Dollar movement USDJPY intervention risk near historic levels Brent crude oil sensitivity to Middle East headlines Sector pressure from EU-US tariff tensions Overall, markets are showing a more constructive tone after the recent tech-led correction. Still, the next major move will likely depend on earnings results, central bank expectations and geopolitical developments. Traders should remain selective, manage risk carefully and avoid overexposure ahead of key market catalysts. Key Takeaways for Traders Global stocks recovered as concerns over the AI-led rally eased. The US Dollar weakened after softer jobs data reduced expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. Gold extended gains as lower rate expectations supported demand for the metal. USDJPY remained volatile as Japan kept the possibility of currency intervention in focus. Brent crude oil stayed near $72 as supply concerns eased but geopolitical risks remained present. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  2. Date: 2nd July 2026. Currency Review: Focus on NFP & Rate Guidance. The market turns its attention to the release of the US employment data (NFP Change). The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the NFP Employment Change earlier than usual due to tomorrow’s US bank holiday. The US Dollar saw a strong decline during yesterday’s Federal Reserve Chairman’s press conference as his statements seemed more balanced. However, the currency corrected 65% thereafter. The upcoming price movement is strongly dependent on the employment change and unemployment rate. The Euro comes under pressure from investor expectations turning dovish on interest rates adjustments. One of the key reasons for decline was dovish comments from ECB officials and lower European inflation. The Euro fell 0.49% against the British Pound which was one of the best performing currencies of the day. The Great British Pound is finding support from a lower risk appetite in the UK due to political instability but also from expectations of a rate cut from the Bank of England. The US Dollar: NFP To Confirm July’s Rate Decision The first press conference by Kevin Warsh was considerably hawkish, speaking solely about inflation and the 2% target. Yesterday’s press conference was more balanced as the Chairman admitted inflationary pressures have quickly come down. Nonetheless, the market still sees 2 rate hikes as a possibility. Economists also note that Mr Warsh is not willing to provide forward guidance so his comments can be easily misinterpreted. In addition to that, investors also point to the fact that the chairman did advise “prices are too high and we will deliver price stability”. Price stability under the current market conditions largely depend on supply rather than demand. Nonetheless, strong employment allows more leeway for the Fed to apply a more hawkish policy. Markets expect the NFP Employment Change to fall from 172,000 to 115,000, slightly below the 6-month average. In addition to this, analysts expect the unemployment rate to remain 4.3% and average earnings to rise 0.3%. If the employment data is stronger than expectations, a rate hike for July will almost be certain. Currently, 70% of traders believe the Fed will not hike this month, but if the US shows strong employment growth, expectations for a pause will significantly fall. If the employment data beats analyst’s expectations, the US Dollar is likely to attempt a correction back up to yesterday’s highs. If the data reads as per expectations, the price potentially can remain within range bound conditions between 100.80 and 101.20. If the data is weaker, the price of the Dollar is likely to significantly fall back to 100.00. However, this depends on how weak the data is. The Euro: Lower Inflation and Dovish ECB Comments Pressure The Euro The Euro is coming under pressure from markets suddenly believing the European Central Bank may not hike again in 2026. According to ECB President Christine Lagarde, the risks are more broadly balanced than before. The governor of the bank of Greece told journalists that there is no need for a rate hike. Furthermore, the Governor of the Belgium Central Bank who is normally known to be a hawk also indicated “no rate hikes are needed”. Adding to the dovish outlook is the European Flash Consumer Price Index which is used to calculate inflation. The flash inflation estimates made public yesterday morning read significantly lower than the previous month and fell below expectations. The Core CPI Flash Estimate fell from 2.5% to 2.4% and the Core figures fell from 3.2% to 2.8%. This data along with the dovish comments applied pressure on the Euro. HFM - EURUSD 30-Minutes The British Pound: Markets Expect Rate Hike Later In the Year The outlook for the British Pound has not necessarily changed in the past 24 hours but is finding support from the dovishness of the ECB. The GBP is currently the second best performing currency of the day just behind the JPY. However, most currencies will decline if the US employment data reads significantly higher than the current predictions. Markets are not expecting an immediate Bank of England rate hike, although the risk of a hike later this year has increased. The BoE’s current Bank Rate stands at 3.75%, with the next decision due on 30 July. At the previous meeting, the committee voted 7-2 to hold rates, but two members supported a 25 bps hike to 4.00%, showing that some policymakers remain concerned about inflation pressure. The base case among markets and economists is still for the BoE to keep rates unchanged for now, but there is a meaningful chance of a rate hike later in 2026 if energy prices, inflation, or wage pressures rise again. GBPUSD 30-Minute Chart Key Takeaways: US NFP data is the main market focus, with the report due to be released earlier due to tomorrow’s US bank holiday. The US Dollar recovered part of its post-Fed decline, but its next move depends heavily on NFP, unemployment and wage growth. Stronger-than-expected jobs data could increase Fed hike expectations, while weaker data may pressure the Dollar lower. The Euro is under pressure as lower inflation and dovish ECB comments reduce expectations for further rate hikes. The British Pound is finding support, helped by Euro weakness and rising expectations that the BoE may hike later in 2026. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  3. Date: 1st July 2026. Strong Jobs Data Supports Fed Outlook as Yen Shows Oversold Signals. The US Dollar declines despite the US JOLTS Job Vacancies beating expectations for a sixth consecutive month. Job openings in the US for May read 7.59 million, significantly higher than the previous expectations (7.28 million). Nonetheless, the US Dollar Index is back on the rise during this morning session. Investors will now turn their attention to Kevin Wash’s speech this afternoon at the ECB Forum in Portugal. US Dollar Attempting To Find Support From Strong Employment Data US economic data painted a positive picture for the employment sector, with job openings coming in strong. However, the US Dollar Index saw a sharp decline. This was partially due to the Consumer Confidence falling to 91.2 due to inflation fears. However, this can only have a short-term effect on the currency. Lower confidence due to inflation also prompts the Fed to take a harsher stance on monetary policy. As a result, the longer-term impact remains positive for the Dollar. The US Dollar is the best performing index of the day so far, followed by the Japanese Yen and CAD. The upward price movement is a delayed impact of yesterday’s positive employment data. Indications against most currencies point towards upward price movement, except against the Japanese Yen. However, this will depend on this afternoon’s Chairman speech and ADP Employment Change. Analysts expect the ADP Employment Change to read 118,000, very similar to the previous month. The predictions are higher than the 6-month average, which is 69,000. Therefore, if the report reads as expected or higher, the US Dollar can find support. The ISM will also release the Manufacturing Price Index, which can trigger volatility. If the index reads above 53.8, the US Dollar may experience further support. Lastly, investors expect the Fed Chairman to provide little in terms of views and forward guidance. However, his tone and the topic he concentrates on will impact how the market expects the interest rates path to unfold. If the chairman concentrates on inflation and rate hikes, the Dollar can again rise. In the past hour, the US Dollar is particularly seeing strong price movement against the Euro, Pound, Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar. Japanese Yen Oversold The USDJPY has now risen close to 163.000 after increasing 0.55% over the past 24-hours. However, investors are now considering whether the index is oversold. Previously, major banks advised that any price above 160.000 is at risk of intervention and major resistance levels. The price is now far above this level, and officials from the government and central bank advising above 163.000 is a key concern for them. Analysts are also advising the Japanese Yen may be oversold as inflation remains healthy, wages are on the rise and the Bank of Japan is increasing rates gradually. Economists also advise that the NIKKEI 225’s performance as the best-performing index of the year is also a good indication regarding the health of the economy. HFM - USDJPY 30-Minute Chart The USDJPY is trading above its intrinsic value according to technical analysis. On the 1-hour time frame, the chart is showing clear signs of divergence on the RSI. On the daily timeframe, the RSI is again indicating the price is overbought as the RSI trades above the 75.00 level (18 period). If the USDJPY witnesses a significant decline, the psychological price at 160.00 will be key. A short-term target can be seen at the support level at 162.465. However, a concern for traders shorting the USDJPY will be strong employment data from the US or hawkish Fed comments. Also providing interesting price action are the EURJPY and AUDJPY. Both the Euro and Australian Dollar have seen strong price movement against the Japanese Yen in the past few days. However, the price is now quickly correcting in the opposite direction. Key Takeaways: The US Dollar initially declined despite strong JOLTS data. Job openings beat expectations for the sixth consecutive month at 7.59 million. The Dollar is now attempting to recover, supported by the delayed impact of strong employment data. The Dollar is witnessing bullish price movement against most currencies except against the Yen. ADP Employment Change and ISM Manufacturing Prices are key risks, as stronger-than-expected readings could provide further support for the US Dollar. USD/JPY may be overbought near 163.00. Intervention risk is increasing, and technical indicators suggest the Japanese Yen may be oversold. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  4. Date: 30th June 2026. Yen Hits 1986 Low as Nikkei 225 Reacts to Currency Pressure. The Japanese Yen has fallen to its lowest level against the US Dollar since 1986 and is now the worst-performing currency of 2026. The decline is due to the lack of indications from the Bank of Japan reassuring investors of higher interest rates. In addition to this, the US Dollar is increasing against all currencies as investors price in 2 rate adjustments for 2026. Japanese Yen Weakness The Japanese Yen has been struggling in 2026. This particularly includes during the US-Iran conflict and since the new Federal Reserve Chairman took office. At times, the increase was largely driven by the safe haven status of the Dollar and inflation. However, the Dollar is now witnessing strong gains due to rate hike expectations. In addition to this, the European Central Bank has already adjusted interest rates, and the Bank of England is likely to follow. For this reason, the Japanese Yen is becoming less and less attractive to investors. The interest rates in Japan cannot compete with other major economies and economists fear the Japanese government may struggle to pay its debt at such high bond yields. Furthermore, the Japanese 10-year government bond yield is currently trading at 2.675, more than double that seen in early 2025. Japan is also increasing its national debt, and its debt-to-GDP levels are higher than most major economies. This is again decreasing confidence in the government. Furthermore, the conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran has also increased pressure on the yen. Japan relies heavily on imported energy, with more than 95% of its oil imports coming from the Middle East, leaving it highly vulnerable to regional disruptions. The weaker yen is supporting exporter profits and helping push Japan’s stock market to record highs, but it is also driving up import costs, especially for Dollar-priced oil and gas, which could put pressure on Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government. In response, Japanese authorities may step up verbal warnings or proceed with direct intervention, having already spent a record ¥11.73 trillion between April 28 and May 27 to support the currency. NIKKEI 225 - Lower Yen Supports Demand For Japanese Stocks The NIKKEI 225 is witnessing both up and down impulse waves as market participants are evaluating the effect of currency fluctuations on the economy. The weaker Japanese Yen is positive for the NIKKEI 225. However, investors are concerned about the domino effect the weak currency can have on the economy. The weaker JPY can result in higher inflation, which can prompt more interest rate hikes. If the Bank of Japan indicates multiple rate hikes, the NIKKEI 225 can come under renewed pressure. HFM - USDJPY 1-Hour Chart The price of the index moved higher but failed to hold near the 70,700–70,730 area. On the 5-minute chart, that usually suggests buyers are still active, but short-term profit-taking has appeared near the highs. This also suggests investors are cautious about the Yen and holding onto longer-term positions. On the 1-hour chart, the price of the index is currently seeing a neutral indication from the RSI and the Moving Averages. However, the price is clearly witnessing a support level at 68,500. While the price remains above this level, the index maintains possible bullish scenarios. Nonetheless, the descending triangle pattern provides a slight bearish bias. If the price is to decline in the short-term, the first target traders potentially may focus on is slightly above the support level. USDJPY - The US Dollar Maintains Bullish Momentum The USDJPY is witnessing clear bullish indications from all momentum-based indicators on most timeframes. However, investors continue to expect the Japanese government will intervene to support the currency. The higher the USDJPY goes, the stronger the possibilities of the government taking harsher measures. For this reason, smaller timeframes are particularly important for technical analysis. This includes the 5-Minute and 15-Minute charts. Currently, the price maintains a bullish bias despite the price retracing down to 162.200. However, if the price falls below 162.30, bullish indications for the short-term will fade. HFM - USDJPY 15-Minute Chart For the US Dollar, the JOLTS Job Openings and CB Consumer Confidence releases in the afternoon will impact order flow. If the two releases read better than expectations, particularly the job openings, the US Dollar can continue to rise further. Job openings in the US have read higher than expectations over the past 4-months. Key Takeaways: The yen hit its weakest level since 1986 as low Japanese rates and US rate expectations weigh. A weaker Yen supports exporters and the Nikkei 225, but higher import costs are fuelling inflation concerns. Japan may increase intervention if Yen weakness continues, after spending a record ¥11.73 trillion earlier this year. USDJPY remains bullish, but intervention risk and key US data could quickly shift short-term momentum. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  5. Date: 29th June 2026. NASDAQ Rises as South Korea Unveils Major AI Chip Investment. Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming NFP data which continues to look increasingly positive. Markets expect the NFP to read 115,000, the unemployment rate to remain the same and for earnings to increase 0.3%. In addition to this, the markets expect the JOLTS Job Openings to continue to remain above 7.0 million. The employment picture remains resilient and likely to support an interest rate adjustment. However, why is the US Dollar Index declining and stocks increasing under a hawkish policy outlook on Monday? US Dollar: Why Is The Dollar Retracing Under Hawkish Fed The US Dollar Index has been retracing this morning and on Friday, however, traders should note the currency remains relatively strong. When monitoring the US Dollar Index’s 52 week range, the currency is trading exceptionally high. In addition to this, the currency index continues to maintain bullish indications on the medium and longer-term timeframes. One of the reasons that the US Dollar has lost momentum is that the possibilities of a rate hike for July have decreased. 30% of market participants now expect the Fed to adjust its federal fund rate. This is down from 36% a week ago, however, 41% of analysts continue to expect two or more rate hikes by the end of the year. So market expectations for rate hikes remain but are weakening at the moment. For this reason, the US Dollar Index is retracing. Though traders should note that if this week’s employment data reads stronger than expected, the bullish momentum may quickly return. The key data which investors will be monitoring is the JOLTS Job Data, ADP NFP Change and the Non-Farm Employment Change. Analysts expect the NFP figure to read 115,000, which remains above the 6-month average (93,000). If the employment figures read higher, markets will turn more hawkish on the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decisions. Currency Market: Dollar & Yen Down The best performing currencies of the day’s Asian Session are the New Zealand Dollar, Euro and the Great British Pound. The worst performing currencies are the Japanese Yen and the US Dollar. The USD and the JPY continue to decline as we approach the European opening trade, and the CAD and CHF are witnessing up and down movement. All other major currencies are increasing as we approach the open. Lastly, Bitcoin is also increasing in value on Monday morning and so far is maintaining bullish momentum. NASDAQ: South Korea set to Invest $518 Billion on Chip Manufacturing The NASDAQ, which came under pressure last week, is losing downward momentum and is the best performing index of the day. The NASDAQ is also outperforming the NIKKEI 225, despite the asian session already taking place. In addition to this, all global indices are trading higher while the VIX falls 1.10%. For this reason, the market seems to be taking a “risk-on” appetite so far. HFM - NASDAQ 15-Minute Chart One of the reasons the index is rising is due to the earnings season for the 2nd quarter getting close. For the technology sector, earnings season will gain momentum on July 22nd, while the general stock market will see higher volatility from the 14th onwards. Another reason for the improved sentiment is South Korea’s announcement regarding chips and AI. South Korea has announced a major AI and semiconductor investment drive worth more than $518 billion, backed by Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and other suppliers. President Lee Jae Myung aims to use the initiative to strengthen the country’s position in the global AI-chip race. The plan focuses on expanding chip production, boosting high-bandwidth memory and DRAM capacity, and developing new semiconductor hubs outside the Seoul area to support regional growth. The main risk for bullish traders remains the Federal Reserve and hawkish rate adjustments. Analysts are advising the NASDAQ is the index which will be hit most by rate hikes due to its exposure to growth stocks. If oil prices rise in the upcoming days, interest rate concerns could grow. Tensions again rose over the weekend in the Middle East but oil prices are yet to react. Oil prices remain in and around $70 per barrel. If oil prices rise, sentiment can fall, particularly if employment data reads higher than expectations. Key Takeaways: Markets expect NFP to reach 115,000, remaining above the 6-month average and supporting labour resilience. The unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged, while average earnings are forecast to rise 0.3%. JOLTS job openings are expected to remain above 7.0 million, reinforcing the resilient US employment picture. The Dollar is retracing as July rate hike expectations weaken, despite longer-term bullish indications remaining intact. Stronger employment data this week could quickly revive Dollar strength and increase hawkish Fed expectations. NASDAQ is leading global indices higher as risk appetite improves and Q2 earnings season approaches. South Korea’s massive AI chip investment is boosting technology sentiment and supporting NASDAQ’s stronger performance. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  6. Date: 26th June 2026. AI Rally Stumbles: What's Behind Today's Global Market Sell-Off? Markets Cool After AI-Fuelled Rally as Investors Take Profits Global financial markets ended the week on a cautious note as investors stepped back from the technology sector after weeks of impressive gains. The AI-driven rally that has dominated equity markets in recent months finally encountered resistance, with traders choosing to secure profits rather than continue chasing higher prices. Asian markets absorbed the biggest blow, while technology stocks remained under pressure on Wall Street. At the same time, falling oil prices continued to reshape expectations for inflation and future central bank decisions. A Sharp Pullback Across Asia Friday's session was dominated by selling across Asia, particularly in markets that had recently reached all-time highs. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell more than 4%, while South Korea's KOSPI briefly dropped nearly 7% before recovering part of its losses. Taiwan also experienced a significant decline as investors reduced exposure to semiconductor companies, many of which have been at the centre of the artificial intelligence boom. Rather than signalling a change in the long-term outlook, the sell-off appeared to reflect investors taking profits after an exceptionally strong run. The companies leading the decline were familiar names. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, SoftBank and Advantest all recorded sizeable losses after delivering remarkable gains throughout the year. Investors Are Becoming More Selective The market reaction was particularly interesting because it followed another round of encouraging corporate results. Micron Technology reported stronger-than-expected earnings and issued an optimistic outlook, while Qualcomm also raised its long-term growth expectations, pointing to increasing demand for AI-powered devices. In previous months, this type of news would likely have sparked another rally across semiconductor stocks. Instead, investors used the positive headlines as an opportunity to reduce exposure. This shift suggests that markets are entering a more mature stage of the AI investment cycle. Investors still believe in the long-term opportunity, but they are becoming less willing to pay ever-higher prices without clear evidence that earnings growth can continue matching expectations. Wall Street Faces Similar Challenges US markets also struggled to regain momentum. Technology shares once again weighed on the Nasdaq as investors balanced optimism surrounding artificial intelligence with concerns over stretched valuations and the possibility of higher interest rates. Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target, keeping policymakers cautious about declaring victory over rising prices. Higher borrowing costs typically place greater pressure on high-growth companies because future earnings become less valuable when discounted at higher interest rates. Apple also contributed to the cautious mood after increasing prices across several of its products. While the decision reflects rising production costs rather than weakening demand, it reminded investors that inflationary pressures have not completely disappeared. Falling Oil Prices Ease Inflation Concerns Away from the technology sector, energy markets continued moving in the opposite direction. Brent crude traded below $74 per barrel, while US crude slipped close to $70, extending one of the largest weekly declines seen in months. The main driver has been improving shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz. Since tensions between the United States and Iran eased, more oil tankers have resumed their journeys, reducing immediate concerns over global supply disruptions. Lower oil prices are generally welcomed by financial markets because they help reduce transportation and manufacturing costs while easing inflationary pressure on consumers and businesses. However, traders should remain cautious. Analysts note that much of the recent shipping activity involves vessels that had been delayed during the conflict. Normal traffic into the Persian Gulf remains well below historical levels, meaning any renewed disruption could quickly reverse the recent decline in crude prices. Better News for the Bank of England There was some encouraging news from the United Kingdom. A closely watched survey showed that households expect inflation to slow significantly over the coming year, largely because of falling energy prices. As a result, financial markets have reduced expectations that the Bank of England will need to raise interest rates further this year. Lower inflation expectations are important because they reduce the likelihood that businesses and workers will continue pushing prices and wages higher, making it easier for inflation to return towards the central bank's target. What Traders Should Watch Next Despite Friday's sharp declines, there is little evidence that the broader AI theme has fundamentally changed. Instead, markets appear to be entering a period where company earnings will matter far more than excitement surrounding artificial intelligence alone. Over the coming weeks, traders should pay close attention to several key developments: Earnings reports from major technology and semiconductor companies. Upcoming US inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary. Oil prices and developments in the Strait of Hormuz. Corporate spending on AI infrastructure and data centres. The extraordinary gains seen across technology stocks this year have set a very high bar. Companies are now expected to deliver exceptional financial performance to justify current valuations. Market Outlook The latest pullback serves as a reminder that even the strongest trends rarely move in a straight line. Artificial intelligence continues to be one of the market's most powerful long-term growth stories, but investors are becoming increasingly disciplined when assessing valuations. Strong earnings alone may no longer be enough to drive prices higher if expectations have already been priced into the market. Meanwhile, lower oil prices are improving the inflation outlook, offering support to sectors outside technology and potentially giving central banks more flexibility in the months ahead. For traders, this changing environment may create new opportunities, but it also reinforces the importance of focusing on fundamentals rather than market excitement alone. As the second-half earnings season approaches, company guidance and economic data are likely to have a much greater influence on market direction than headlines surrounding AI. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  7. Date: 25th June 2026. Markets Rebound on AI Optimism as Investors Await Key US Inflation Data. Markets Rebound on AI Optimism as all Eyes Await Key US Inflation Data Global markets found their footing on Thursday after two difficult sessions, with technology stocks leading the recovery as investors regained confidence in the artificial intelligence sector. Strong earnings guidance from Micron Technology helped shift sentiment, while easing tensions in the Middle East continued to drag oil prices lower. With the market's attention now firmly on today's US inflation figures, investors are weighing whether the recent rebound has further room to run. AI Trade Back in Focus The biggest story of the day came from the semiconductor sector. Micron Technology surprised markets by forecasting quarterly revenue well above expectations, signalling that demand for AI hardware remains exceptionally strong. The company said demand for both traditional memory chips and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which is widely used in AI servers, continues to outpace supply. It also revealed that customers are increasingly locking in long-term supply agreements, giving the company greater visibility over future sales. The update was enough to reignite enthusiasm across the entire chip sector. Shares of Micron surged in after-hours trading, while Asian semiconductor companies followed suit. South Korea's SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both posted strong gains, with Japan's Advantest and Tokyo Electron also rallying sharply. US futures pointed to a stronger open, with the Nasdaq expected to outperform broader markets. The latest results also help answer a question investors have been asking for months: is the AI investment cycle beginning to slow? For now, the answer appears to be no. Falling Oil Prices Lift Sentiment Another factor supporting equities has been the steady decline in oil prices. Brent crude has now fallen for a fourth consecutive session and is trading below the level seen before the recent conflict between the United States and Iran. As shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to normalise and diplomatic talks show signs of progress, traders are removing much of the geopolitical risk premium that had been built into energy prices. Lower oil prices are generally welcomed by equity markets. They reduce inflationary pressure, ease costs for businesses and consumers, and lessen concerns that central banks may need to keep interest rates higher for even longer. Not surprisingly, energy stocks were among the weaker performers as crude prices extended their decline. All Eyes on US Inflation The next major catalyst arrives later today with the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the PCE measure is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, meaning today's report could have a significant impact on interest rate expectations. Markets expect inflation to remain elevated, and another stronger-than-expected reading would reinforce the view that the Fed may need to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. That would likely support the US Dollar and Treasury yields while creating fresh headwinds for Gold and other interest-rate-sensitive assets. A softer reading, however, could provide investors with some relief and extend today's recovery in equities. Dollar Holds Firm, Gold Remains Under Pressure Although the US Dollar eased slightly during Thursday's session, it remains close to its highest level in seven months after benefiting from increasingly hawkish expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve. Gold, meanwhile, continues to struggle. The combination of a stronger Dollar, elevated bond yields and easing geopolitical tensions has reduced demand for the precious metal, leaving prices under pressure despite lingering uncertainty across global markets. Bitcoin Approaches a Critical Test Cryptocurrency traders are also preparing for what could be a volatile end to the week. Around $10 billion worth of Bitcoin options are due to expire on Friday, representing more than one-third of all open contracts on Deribit, the world's largest crypto options exchange. Most of those positions were placed on the expectation that Bitcoin would continue rising. Instead, the cryptocurrency has fallen sharply in recent weeks, leaving many bullish positions out of the money. That doesn't necessarily mean Bitcoin will continue falling, but it does increase the likelihood of sharp price swings as traders adjust positions and market makers rebalance their hedges. Many analysts believe the more meaningful signal for Bitcoin's direction will come after the expiry, once much of this temporary positioning has cleared. Japan Pushes for Continued Monetary Support In Japan, investors welcomed reports that the government wants monetary policy to remain supportive of economic growth. A draft of the country's long-term economic strategy encourages the Bank of Japan to continue working closely with the government and maintain policies that support private demand. The language has been interpreted as a sign that policymakers are cautious about raising interest rates too aggressively. The news helped push Japanese equities sharply higher while keeping pressure on the Yen. Corporate News in Brief Several companies also made headlines throughout the session. Qualcomm raised its full-year revenue outlook and unveiled a new AI-focused processor designed for data centres, sending its shares sharply higher after the close. OpenAI announced its first custom-built AI chip, developed in partnership with Broadcom, highlighting the growing competition among technology companies to build their own AI infrastructure. Meanwhile, the largest US banks increased shareholder dividends after successfully passing this year's Federal Reserve stress tests. Looking Ahead Today's recovery is another reminder that AI remains one of the market's strongest long-term themes. Strong earnings from companies like Micron continue to support the view that investment in AI infrastructure is still accelerating rather than slowing. Even so, the direction of markets over the next 24 hours is likely to depend less on corporate earnings and more on inflation. If today's PCE report comes in hotter than expected, investors may once again favour the US Dollar while scaling back expectations for interest rate cuts. A softer reading, on the other hand, would reinforce today's improvement in sentiment and could provide another boost for global equity markets. Either way, traders should be prepared for another busy session as inflation once again takes centre stage. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  8. Date: 24th June 2026. Weekly Market Briefing: Stocks Stabilise as Traders Watch AI, Oil, and Fed Data. Global markets are attempting to stabilise after Tuesday’s sharp technology-led sell-off, with traders now focused on whether the recent weakness is a short-term correction or the beginning of a deeper pullback. The main event today is Micron Technology’s earnings, which could provide an important signal on whether demand for AI infrastructure remains strong enough to support the recent rally in technology and semiconductor stocks. Key Market Movers Global stocks stabilise after Tuesday’s tech-led rout. S&P 500 futures rise 0.2%, while NASDAQ 100 futures gain 0.5%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 7.9% on Tuesday. Micron fell 13% ahead of its earnings report. The US Dollar climbed towards a seven-month high. Gold fell below $4,100 as the stronger Dollar weighed. Oil traded near four-month lows as Strait of Hormuz traffic improved. Treasuries steadied as lower oil prices eased inflation concerns. Traders now await Thursday’s US personal spending data. Technology and AI Stocks Remain the Main Market Focus Technology stocks remain under pressure after Tuesday’s sharp sell-off. The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.3%, while the S&P 500 declined 1.4%. The biggest pressure came from semiconductor stocks, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 7.9%. All 30 members of the index closed lower as investors questioned whether the AI-driven rally has become overextended. Micron Technology, Marvell Technology, and On Semiconductor were among the biggest losers. Micron alone fell 13% ahead of its quarterly earnings, making its results one of the most important events of the week. A strong outlook from Micron could help restore confidence in the AI trade. However, weak guidance could increase concerns that valuations in the sector have moved too far, too fast. Global Equities Attempt to Recover After Tuesday’s rout, global stocks found some stability. The MSCI All Country World Index was little changed after falling 1.7% in the previous session. Asian equities also steadied, with South Korea’s KOSPI rebounding around 3% after a 10% plunge on Tuesday. Samsung Electronics supported the recovery following reports that the company may announce a share buyback. In the US, S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, while NASDAQ 100 futures climbed 0.5%. European equity futures were broadly stable. US Dollar Strengthens, Gold Falls The US Dollar remained strong, with a key Dollar gauge rising towards a seven-month high. The stronger Dollar placed pressure on gold, which fell for a second day and traded below $4,100 an ounce. Gold remains sensitive to Dollar strength, Treasury yields, and changing expectations around Federal Reserve policy. Oil Falls as Middle East Supply Concerns Ease Oil prices continued to decline, trading near four-month lows. Brent crude fell below $77 per barrel, while WTI traded close to $72.50. Prices came under pressure as more tanker traffic became visible through the Strait of Hormuz following the interim peace agreement between the US and Iran. Although uncertainty remains over the durability of the agreement, improving shipping activity has reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium that had previously supported oil prices. Lower oil prices also helped ease some inflation concerns, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively. Treasuries Steady as Traders Watch Fed Signals Treasuries steadied after gaining on Tuesday. The equity sell-off and falling oil prices were viewed as reducing some of the inflation pressure that had recently pushed yields higher. The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed around 4.49%. An auction of 2-year Treasury notes drew strong demand, suggesting investors remain willing to buy US government debt despite uncertainty around future Fed policy. Traders will now focus on Thursday’s US personal spending data for further clues on inflation, consumer strength, and the Fed’s next steps. Corporate Highlights Several corporate developments also attracted attention: FedEx reported quarterly earnings above expectations and said profit should grow this year. SpaceX attracted around $89 billion of demand for its debut US bond sale. SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son said he plans to remain at the top of the company for another decade or more. Chinese AI model maker Zhipu is reportedly considering a Hong Kong share sale after a major rally since listing. ByteDance is in talks with banks for a potential $20 billion borrowing as it continues investing in AI. Goldman Sachs’ equity trading business is reportedly on track for another strong quarter. Apollo Global Management is again limiting withdrawals from its largest non-traded private credit fund. Other Market Moves Bitcoin rose 0.7% to around $62,815, while Ether gained 0.6% to around $1,672. In currencies, the euro slipped to around $1.1368, while the yen was little changed near 161.61 per Dollar. In commodities, gold traded near $4,074, while WTI crude fell to around $72.50. What Traders Should Watch Next Micron Technology earnings NASDAQ and semiconductor sector reaction S&P 500 support levels US personal spending data on Thursday US Dollar strength Gold’s reaction below $4,100 Oil prices near four-month lows Treasury yields Further developments around the US-Iran interim agreement Market Outlook Markets remain highly sensitive to AI sentiment, Federal Reserve expectations, and commodity price movements. While global stocks are attempting to stabilise, the recent sell-off shows that investors are becoming more selective after a powerful rally in technology shares. For now, Micron’s earnings and Thursday’s US personal spending data are likely to determine whether risk sentiment improves or whether the pullback in equities deepens. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  9. Date: 23rd June 2026. Why Are Stocks Falling Today? AI Selloff, Fed Concerns and Falling Oil Prices. Global markets weakened on Tuesday as investors took profits in technology stocks, monitored progress in US-Iran peace talks, and prepared for key US inflation data later this week. While falling oil prices would typically support risk sentiment, concerns over elevated interest rates and a stronger US Dollar weighed on equities, Gold, and cryptocurrencies. For traders, the focus is increasingly shifting away from geopolitics and back toward inflation, central bank policy, and the sustainability of the AI-driven stock market rally. AI Stocks Lead Global Market Decline The biggest story in financial markets today is the sharp decline in technology stocks. After months of strong gains driven by enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence, investors are beginning to question whether current valuations can be justified. The weakness was particularly visible in Asia, where South Korea’s KOSPI index plunged more than 6% amid concerns that major semiconductor and AI-related stocks have become overstretched. The selling pressure spread across global markets: NASDAQ futures fell more than 1% S&P 500 futures declined around 0.8% The MSCI All Country World Index slipped 0.5% Asian equities fell more than 2% from record highs Technology stocks have been one of the main drivers behind the stock market’s gains throughout 2026. As a result, any sign of weakness in the sector is having a disproportionate impact on overall market sentiment. Micron Earnings Become a Major Test for AI Stocks Attention is now turning to Micron Technology’s earnings report on Wednesday, which could become one of the most important events of the week for equity traders. Many analysts view Micron’s results as a critical test of whether AI-related spending remains strong enough to support the extraordinary rally seen across semiconductor stocks this year. Several leading chip manufacturers have already recorded gains of hundreds of percent in 2026, making earnings expectations exceptionally high. Any indication that demand for AI infrastructure is slowing could trigger further profit-taking across the technology sector. Oil Prices Fall as US-Iran Peace Talks Progress Oil prices continued to decline after the United States and Iran reported progress in ongoing negotiations aimed at reaching a lasting peace agreement. Brent crude traded below $78 per barrel after falling more than 3% during the previous session, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude remained near $74 per barrel. Several developments contributed to the decline: The US granted a 60-day waiver allowing some Iranian oil exports. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually recovering. Gulf producers are increasing exports through alternative routes. Markets are reducing the geopolitical risk premium that had supported oil prices. The reopening of energy supply routes and expectations of additional Iranian crude entering global markets have eased fears of a prolonged supply shock. However, traders remain cautious as negotiations continue and disagreements remain over certain aspects of the agreement. Why Gold Prices Are Falling Gold prices fell more than 1% on Tuesday despite lingering geopolitical uncertainty. Normally, ongoing tensions in the Middle East would support demand for safe-haven assets. However, investors are increasingly focused on inflation and interest rates rather than geopolitical risks. The key factor weighing on Gold is the growing expectation that US interest rates may remain higher for longer. Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh reinforced this view last week by delivering a hawkish message focused heavily on returning inflation to the central bank’s 2% target. Higher interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as Gold while simultaneously strengthening the US Dollar. Silver also came under pressure, declining more than 3% during the session. The US Dollar Remains Strong The US Dollar continues to outperform many major currencies as traders adjust to a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook. Despite lower oil prices and improving geopolitical conditions, the Dollar remains supported by expectations that US interest rates could stay elevated for longer than previously expected. This strength has been particularly evident against the Japanese Yen. The Yen remains close to its weakest level since the 1980s, trading above 161 per Dollar despite repeated intervention efforts from Japanese authorities. Recent discussions between Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have increased speculation that further intervention may be possible if the currency continues to weaken. However, markets remain sceptical that intervention alone can reverse the trend without higher Japanese interest rates. Japanese Bond Markets Signal Rate Hike Concerns Japan’s latest five-year government bond auction attracted weaker-than-expected demand, highlighting growing concerns about future interest rate increases. The bid-to-cover ratio fell to its lowest level since February, suggesting investors remain cautious about holding bonds while inflation risks persist. Although the Bank of Japan recently raised interest rates to their highest level since 1995, many investors believe the central bank may still be behind the curve. A weaker Yen, imported inflation, and rising wage pressures continue to fuel expectations that further tightening may eventually be required. For currency traders, developments in Japan remain particularly important as they could influence both the Yen and broader global bond markets. Core PCE Inflation Data Becomes the Week’s Most Important Event While traders continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, the most important economic release this week may be the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) inflation report. Core PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and could significantly influence expectations for future interest rate decisions. A higher-than-expected reading could: Support the US Dollar Push Treasury yields higher Increase pressure on Gold Trigger additional volatility in stock markets A softer inflation reading could ease concerns about future rate hikes and support risk assets. As a result, many traders are likely to remain cautious until the data is released. Cryptocurrency Markets Also Under Pressure Risk aversion was not limited to stocks. Bitcoin fell more than 1%, and Ethereum also moved lower as investors reduced exposure to risk-sensitive assets. The decline mirrors weakness seen across technology stocks and reflects broader concerns surrounding higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions. What Traders Should Watch Next Several major themes are likely to drive markets over the coming days: Micron earnings and the outlook for AI-related spending. US Core PCE inflation data, which could reshape interest rate expectations. US Dollar strength and its impact on Gold and global currencies. Oil prices and further developments in US-Iran peace negotiations Japanese Yen intervention risks and potential Bank of Japan policy changes. Technology sector performance, particularly whether the recent AI-driven rally can continue. Market Outlook The market narrative appears to be shifting. For much of 2026, investors focused on AI optimism and geopolitical developments. Today, attention is increasingly returning to inflation, interest rates, and economic fundamentals. The recent pullback in technology stocks does not necessarily signal the end of the AI boom. However, it does suggest that markets are becoming more sensitive to valuations, earnings performance, and monetary policy expectations. With AI stocks facing a key earnings test, inflation data due later this week, and central banks maintaining a hawkish stance, traders should prepare for elevated volatility across stocks, currencies, commodities, and cryptocurrencies in the days ahead. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  10. Date: 22th June 2026. Currency Market: UK PM To Resign. The British Pound is the day’s best performing currency as markets expect the resignation of the UK Prime Minister. The Pound is currently trading 0.12% higher, while the second best performing currency is the US Dollar, up 0.3%. However, technical analysts are cautious about the GBPUSD and trading against the US Dollar due to Fed hawkishness. The worst performing currencies of the past week were the Swiss Franc, New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar. The Canadian Dollar is particularly under pressure from poor Canadian economic data and lower oil prices. The currency market is likely to witness further volatility this afternoon as Canada releases its Consumer Price Index. Furthermore, tomorrow’s PMI reports are likely to see higher volatility on the US Dollar, Euro and Great British Pound. Why is PM Starmer Resigning? The resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer is not necessarily a new story for the UK, nor is it yet confirmed. The PM’s resignation has been a theme in UK politics since 2025 when the Peter Mandelson scandal came to light. Peter Mandelson's appointment by Keir Starmer attracted significant criticism and negatively affected perceptions of his leadership. However, the reason for the resignation is the growing internal rebellion within the party since the poor local election results. Leadership challenges is also another reason, particularly from Andy Burnham, who has gained substantial support among Labour MPs and is widely viewed as a potential successor. If Andy Burnham becomes the new UK Prime Minister, markets will closely watch whether he replaces the UK Chancellor. If he appoints a new Chancellor, the GBP will likely experience higher volatility. However, the GBP outlook will depend on the replacement and their views on the UK’s monetary policy. The effect of Andry Burnham being appointed cannot be known. On the one hand, Mr Burnham has well-respected economists as advisors. These include ex-BOE members and Goldman Sachs economists. Additionally, he has spoken about making cuts to welfare, which goes down well with investors. However, on the other hand, many investors fear he is looking to loosen fiscal policy which in the past has significantly damaged the Pound. Great British Pound - Up in the Short-term, But Long-Term Pressures Remain During the Asian session, the GBPUSD is witnessing both up and down volatility but continues to maintain bearish signals. The GBP index is trading higher so far, but the US Dollar is the best performing currency of the month. For this reason, even if the GBP can build momentum to form a bullish impulse wave, technical analysts will remain cautious of a downward correction. Particularly as markets expect the Federal Reserve to turn hawkish over the remainder of 2026. Meanwhile, the GBPCAD and GBPCHF are witnessing stronger buy signals and have a higher possibility of upward price movement. HFM - GBPCHF 6-Hour Chart Canadian Dollar - Lower Oil Prices Pressure the CAD The Canadian Dollar has particularly come under pressure due to its correlation with oil prices. Crude Oil prices have fallen more than 16% in this market putting immense pressure on the CAD. Oil prices continue to decline on Monday as the US-Iran peace process progresses further. A key new release for the Canadian Dollar will be this afternoon’s Consumer Price Index. Analysts expect the CPI to read 0.7%, higher than the previous month but not the highest this year. If the inflation figure reads higher the CAD may attempt a correction, however, a weaker figure could seriously pressure the CAD. USDCAD is showing short-term momentum remaining slightly in favour of buyers. On the 1-minute chart, the pair continues producing quick swings while holding above nearby support levels. The 5-minute chart presents a more defined structure of higher highs and higher lows, indicating that buyers are retaining control despite resistance limiting stronger upside progress. HFM - USDCAD 6-Hour Chart Meanwhile, the 15-minute chart shows the pair consolidating within a broader intraday trend, suggesting the market is assessing whether sufficient momentum exists for a continuation higher. Overall, the technical outlook remains cautiously bullish while USDCAD holds above its recent support zones. A break above resistance could encourage buyers, while a move below support would increase the risk of a deeper pullback. The price of the USDCAD remains above all moving averages and seems very bullish. However, investors are cautious the price may be overstretched in the medium-term after increasing in value for 5 consecutive days and 4 consecutive weeks. Key Takeaway Points: The British Pound leads currency gains as markets increasingly expect Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation as early as this morning. Andy Burnham becoming Prime Minister could trigger higher GBP volatility, especially if he replaces the current Chancellor. The Canadian Dollar remains under pressure from weaker economic data and lower oil prices. Markets turn their attention to today’s Canadian inflation. USDCAD remains bullish, though investors are cautious after five consecutive daily gains and four consecutive weekly gains. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  11. Date: 19th June 2026. US Dollar Surges as Hawkish Fed Outlook Pressures Gold and Stocks. The US Dollar continues to increase in value for a third consecutive day, breaking above key resistance levels. The US Dollar Index has now risen 1.68% this week so far, while other currencies have come under pressure from poor economic data. The market continues to price in a more hawkish Federal Reserve, including the possibility of a rate adjustment either in July, or at the latest, September. The chances of the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates twice in 2026 are now 70%, significantly higher than previously. Analysts are indicating that Wednesday’s Fed press conference is likely to have a longer-term impact on the market. This includes the US stock market, as well as the US Dollar and Gold. Gold & Global Metals Decline As Dollar Maintains Bullish Momentum Gold is decreasing in value for two key reasons. With global tensions easing, investors see a lesser need for safe-haven assets, including Gold. Other safe haven assets such as the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen have also come under strain. In addition to this, the US Dollar is becoming more attractive as a yielding asset, which is likely to see higher interest being paid in the upcoming months. The Federal Reserve’s outlook became more hawkish, with the median forecast for interest rates at the end of the year rising from 3.4% to 3.8%. Half of the Fed’s Board members (nine out of 18) now expect at least one interest rate hike in 2026. Only one member is forecasting a total increase of 0.75%. Meanwhile, 17 of the 18 members believe inflation remains a significant risk. At his first meeting as chairman, Kevin Warsh chose not to provide his own economic projections. However, during the press conference, he stressed that the Fed is fully committed to bringing inflation back under control. In addition, analysts interpreted the chairman’s remarks as signalling a strong willingness to take whatever measures are necessary to return inflation to the Fed’s 2% target. For more information on Kevin Warsh’s press conference, read yesterday’s article. HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart On larger timeframes, the price of Gold continues to support a bearish outlook. The price continues to witness clear lower lows and highs, as well as consecutive bearish impulse waves. At the same time, bullish impulse waves seem weak and unable to maintain momentum. At the same time, the price on smaller timeframes is clearly showing bearish signals, including trading below the 200-bar moving average. In addition to this, the RSI trades at 42.50 and below the VWAP, both indicating a bearish outlook. However, on smaller timeframes, the price has deviated significantly away from the average price, indicating that the price may retrace before continuing downward. Though this will also depend on the US Dollar. If the US Dollar Index remains above 100.60 on Friday and Monday, Gold may continue to remain under pressure. However, if the price does not increase above today’s highs thereafter, Gold may attempt a bullish breakout. S&P 500 Declines - How Will The Fed Impact Stocks? The S&P 500 has understandably come under pressure from the press conference of the new Federal Reserve chairman. However, investors should note that analysts’ outlook for the stock market is not as negative as it is for precious metals. Precious metals are particularly coming under pressure as they are non-yielding assets whereas the S&P 500 has a dividend yield of 1.08%. In addition to this, the stock market continues to find strong demand for the AI trend and positive economic conditions. This was also reiterated by Mr Warsh at Wednesday’s press conference. Nonetheless, interest rate hikes and reducing the Fed’s balance sheet can apply pressure to the stock market. For this reason, economists are advising traders to expect both up-and-down volatility. During this morning’s Asian session, the S&P 500 is witnessing a slight bearish outlook for the short term. HFM - S&P 500 30-Minute Chart The price of the index is trading below the 200-bar simple moving average and at the day’s VWAP. All global indices are trading lower, and the VIX index has added 2.20%, which indicates risk-off appetite. For this reason, signals indicate that a downward swing is possible. Currently, the price is retracing upward, but if the index falls below $7,476.55, sell signals will strengthen significantly. However, if the price rises above $7,500.00, sell signals will completely fade. Key Takeaways: US Dollar Strengthens - The US Dollar Index has gained 1.68% this week. The currency finds support from growing expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Market Prices in Higher Rates - Investors now see a strong chance of a Fed rate hike by July or September, with a 70% probability of two rate hikes in 2026. Gold Remains Under Pressure - Easing geopolitical tensions and a stronger, higher-yielding US Dollar continue to weigh on Gold prices. Fed Outlook Drives Market Volatility - Chairman Kevin Warsh reinforced the Fed’s commitment to controlling inflation, increasing pressure on Gold and stocks while supporting the US Dollar. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  12. Date: 18th June 2026. US Dollar Surges as Fed Chair Warsh Signals Higher Rates and Tough Inflation Stance. A relatively hawkish Federal Reserve chairman saw the US Dollar Index witness new bullish momentum. The US Dollar Index rose more than 1% and is now pressuring the key resistance level at 100.40. If this level is broken, the currency will trade at its highest in more than 12 months. The new Federal Reserve chairman’s press conference is the reason for yesterday’s volatility. During Kevin Warsh’s press conference, the stock market was quick to decline, as were Gold and oil. The main winner from the press conference is the US Dollar, which continues to be the best-performing currency of the day. Kevin Warsh Press Conference Analysts were unsure what to expect from Kevin Warsh, as it is well-known that he does not support guidance nor give too much information to journalists. However, the new Chairman did not shy away from affirming how he believes the Federal Reserve should work. It is clear from the market’s reaction and comments from analysts that this was significantly more hawkish than previous expectations. Chairman Warsh strongly emphasised the Fed’s commitment to returning inflation to the 2% target. Analysts were clear to pick up on that the chairman’s statements were definite and did not leave room for a slow progress towards the target or any leeway. In addition to this, during the press conference, the chairman made no reference to supporting the economy. Nor did Mr Warsh reassure economists that he will ensure employment remains stable while bringing inflation down. Many are now questioning whether the Fed now has one target, inflation, and not employment. This is unlikely, however, many agree that the Fed will be willing for employment to take a slight hit while bringing inflation down to the 2% target. For this reason, the market views the comments as particularly hawkish. After this meeting, markets shifted toward pricing a much higher probability of rates staying elevated or even rising further. There is now a high probability of rate hikes in 2026, with the Chicago exchange predicting a 32% chance of a rate hike in July. This is significantly higher than the 8% possibility from before the press conference. In addition to this, there is a 33% chance of two interest rate hikes in 2026, up from 14%. The Chairman was very clear in stating that the FOMC all agreed that the Fed will not provide forward guidance or submit dots. For this reason, investors can expect more volatility during the Fed’s rate decisions compared to the past 10 years. Lastly, Kevin Warsh reiterated his concerns about the Federal Reserve’s large bond holdings. He also confirmed that the central bank's balance sheet will be reviewed as part of its broader reform efforts. While no immediate policy changes were announced, the review could influence how the Fed manages its assets in the future. Analysts expect this to support the Dollar by limiting supply. USDCAD - Oil Pressures the CAD as the US Dollar Gains Momentum USD/CAD remains within a strong bullish trend, supported by a stronger US Dollar. The US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day. The Canadian Dollar is the worst-performing and is particularly coming under pressure from the lower oil prices. The pair continues to trade above its key moving averages and is holding comfortably above the psychological 1.4000 level. Momentum indicators remain positive, although recent gains suggest the pair may be approaching overbought territory in the short term. As long as price remains above 1.4000, buyers are likely to retain control of the trend. From a technical perspective, a break above the recent high near 1.4080 could open the door for a move towards 1.4125, with a further bullish target at 1.4160. However, if the pair struggles to sustain gains, a correction towards 1.4000 and 1.3900 cannot be ruled out. HFM - USDCAD 30-Minutes Gold - Technical Analysts See New 2026 Low In Sight Gold remains under pressure as higher US Treasury yields and expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve reduce demand for non-yielding assets. All metals are declining, which further supports Gold weakness. The metal continues to trade below key resistance levels, with momentum indicators favouring sellers in the short term. As long as Gold remains below $4,340, the near-term bias is likely to remain bearish. Some technical analysts also advise that Gold has the potential to decline to the psychological price of $4,000, which would take us to an eight-month low. HFM - USDCAD 30-Minutes Key Takeaway Points: Warsh reinforced the Fed’s commitment to 2% inflation, delivering a more hawkish message than markets expected. Rate hike expectations jumped sharply, with July hike odds rising from 8% to 32%. The US Dollar surged, while stocks, Gold, and oil declined following the press conference. The Fed will end forward guidance, likely increasing volatility around future policy decisions. USD/CAD remains bullish above 1.4000, while Gold risks falling towards the $4,000 level. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  13. Date: 17th June 2026. New Fed Chairman in Focus: Stocks Decline and Gold Loses Momentum. The NASDAQ saw a significant decline on Tuesday, largely due to profit-taking from stocks that had seen significant increases in the previous days. All global indices fell on Tuesday as investors took a cautious approach to the new Federal Reserve chairman. However, the NASDAQ came under significantly higher pressure. Furthermore, the US Dollar is declining largely due to the lower demand for safe-haven assets and lower oil prices. Crude oil has now fallen to $75 per barrel, the lowest since 5 March. Gold has also lost momentum despite the price of the Dollar retracing lower. The main price drivers for the US Dollar and Gold will be tonight’s press conference from the Federal Reserve. The NASDAQ Comes Under Profit-Taking Pressure Analysts note that the stocks that drove the NASDAQ lower on Tuesday were primarily NVIDIA, Broadcom, Micron Technology, and Intel. These are stocks that had seen significant gains in the previous days. For this reason, investors believe the decline is also due to profit-taking after quick significant quick gains. In addition to this, investors are also taking a cautious approach to the Federal Reserve’s press conference. The US Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision tonight at 18:00 GMT. Kevin Warsh will chair the meeting and hold his first press conference as chairman. HFM - NASDAQ 30-Minute Chart Markets widely expect interest rates to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Investors will instead focus on the press conference and updated economic projections for clues on the future policy path. Kevin Warsh does not favour forward guidance, which sets him apart from his predecessor. Some analysts believe that, despite his hawkish policy stance, a reduced emphasis on forward guidance could benefit the stock market. Previously, Mr Warsh has told the market he is looking to reform the Fed. Investors will be interested to hear what this means for Fed policy. If the Fed opts to stop its QE programme, the stock market could come under pressure, particularly as the Dollar increases again. The NASDAQ remains in an overall uptrend, but the next major move is likely to depend on the Federal Reserve meeting. A hawkish tone from Kevin Warsh could pressure growth stocks and extend the current pullback. A neutral or dovish tone could help the index retest its recent highs. However, in terms of technical analysis, the NASDAQ is regaining bullish momentum and obtaining further buy signals as the price corrects. Gold Does Not Maintain Bullish Momentum Gold has traded mostly sideways over the past 24 hours, holding near a one-week high around the $4,330-$4,370 area. Momentum remains cautiously positive after Monday’s rebound, but the recovery is not fully confirmed while prices stay below the key 200-day moving average, which is acting as resistance near $4,446. A key concern for technical analysts is that Gold has not been able to maintain bullish momentum while the US Dollar has continued to decline. This can be seen as a key signal that Gold may again decline or remain within a new price range between $4,000 and $4,350. The short-term bias remains neutral-to-slightly bullish as long as gold holds above the recent support zone around $4,300–$4,320. A break above $4,446 could strengthen the bullish outlook, while a move back below $4,300 may signal renewed selling pressure. A hawkish Fed can pressure Gold, in a very similar way to the stock market. HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart Key Takeaways: The NASDAQ fell as investors took profits in semiconductor stocks following strong gains earlier in the week. Investors await Kevin Warsh’s first Fed press conference for clues on future monetary policy and reforms. The US Dollar weakened as oil prices fell and demand for safe-haven assets eased. Gold struggled to maintain momentum despite a weaker Dollar, raising concerns over further upside potential. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  14. [B]Date: 16th June 2026.[/B] [B]Trump announced that the US and Iran will sign a peace agreement on Friday.[/B] A major week for central banks and the global currency markets is underway as five central banks release their interest rate decisions. These include the Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of England. So far, the Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Australia have made their interest rate decisions public, but the most influential decision will come from the Federal Reserve. The best-performing currencies of the past week have been the Australian Dollar and Swiss Franc. The Australian Dollar has been the best performing currency of 2026 so far, but the performance of multiple currencies will depend largely on the Federal Reserve and the US Dollar. Japanese Yen - BOJ Hike Takes Rates to a 31-Year High The Bank of Japan adjusted its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest since 1995. However, the Japanese Yen’s first reaction was to slightly decline, and any gains since have been minimal. As interest rate hikes are known to support the currency, why has the Japanese Yen not seen significant gains? HFM - USDJPY 30-Minute Chart The interest rate hike was widely expected and fully priced into the market. As a result, there was little need for further buying after the bank adjusted rates. In addition, the US Dollar was the best-performing currency during this morning’s Asian session and yesterday’s US session. Investors still expect Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh to maintain a hawkish stance. Bond yields also remain 20% above their 12-month average. For the Japanese Yen to gain momentum, the BOJ will need to give a strong indication of more rate hikes. So far, most analysts believe the Bank of Japan may hike on one more occasion this year. However, even with a further hike, the Yen may need a more neutral Fed in order to maintain momentum in its favour. Harumi Taguchi, principal economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said ‘I believe the BOJ stance remains unchanged in that it will continue to implement gradual rate hikes roughly every six months. Another rate hike within the year is also possible.’ In terms of technical analysis, the price is at a neutral level, with the currency pair trading at the 200-bar moving average on the 5-minute chart. In addition to this, the price is trading in the middle of the day’s high and low. For a sell signal to materialise, traders will be looking for the price to fall below 160.140. At this level, the price will form a crossover, move away from the 200-bar SMA, and regain 65% of the previous bullish wave. For this reason, sell signals can strengthen at this point for the USD/JPY. Australian Dollar - The RBA Keeps Rates Unchanged The Australian Dollar is declining against all currencies as the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged and agreed that unemployment is higher than expected. Some comments from the RBA governor were deemed hawkish, but investors focused on certain comments on the economy. Indeed, economic and employment data in recent weeks have deteriorated. However, the governor was also clear that she believes inflation will remain high. According to the RBA, there are signs that consumer spending growth is slowing as expected, while housing market momentum has weakened, with prices falling in some capital cities. The unemployment rate rose more than expected in April, although other labour market indicators remain relatively resilient. Similar to the Japanese Yen, the performance of the AUD will also depend largely on the US Dollar. However, the AUD remains the best-performing currency of the year, even ahead of the US Dollar. Therefore, investors should be cautious of quick bullish impulse waves in favour of the AUD. HFM - AUDUSD 30-Minute Chart Federal Reserve - US Dollar Hold Onto Gains Despite facing fundamental pressure from the US-Iran peace deal and lower oil prices, the US Dollar Index proved resilient. After recovering the losses caused by the negative price gap, the currency continued to strengthen and moved even higher. The market is not expecting any adjustments to interest rates tomorrow, but is treating Kevin Warsh with caution. Despite the changes in market conditions, bond yields remain high, and markets continue to price in at least one interest rate hike this year. For this reason, the US Dollar holds onto its gains, but the easing tensions in the Middle East can pressure the safe-haven currency. Markets will expect major volatility during the press conference of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh. Of particular interest to investors is whether he believes rates will rise in the coming months. Key Takeaway: The Federal Reserve remains the main market focus. While several central banks are announcing rate decisions, investors are primarily watching the new Fed Chair for guidance on future rate hikes. The Bank of Japan raised rates to their highest level since 1995. However, the Yen saw limited gains as the move was already priced in and a strong Dollar offset the impact. The Australian Dollar remains the year’s strongest currency despite RBA caution. The RBA kept rates unchanged and highlighted softer economic conditions, but persistent inflation continues to support the currency. US Dollar strength continues despite easing geopolitical risks. High bond yields and expectations of at least one Fed rate hike this year are helping the Dollar hold onto its gains. However, tomorrow’s Federal Reserve press conference will be key for this. [B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/B] [B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B] Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to register for FREE! [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/'][B]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/B][/URL] [B]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/B] [B]Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  15. [B]Date: 15th June 2026.[/B] [B]Oil Slides and Stocks Gain as US-Iran Deal Boosts Risk Appetite.[/B] The market turns risk-on as the US reaches a temporary deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The deal ends all hostilities and will see the Strait allow shipping through from the 19 June onwards. Market risk appetite was quick to significantly rise at the opening of the Asian Session on Monday. The key price movement that all investors were hoping to see was the decline in oil prices. All energy-based products fell with a large price gap. However, the key movement was Crude oil which fell more than 5% and Brent oil, which fell 4.45%. This had a key impact on the US Dollar, Gold, and the stock market. Crude Oil Fall to 3-Month Low On Trump’s 80th birthday, the White House announced the peace deal which markets had long been awaiting. Crude oil was already falling last week, and fresh selling pressure is now pushing prices to a three-month low. The US and Iran are expected to sign the agreement on Friday, allowing for the reopening of the Strait. According to the White House, authorities will use the following four days to clear mines from the shipping route and restore safe passage through the strait. 20% of the world’s oil exports pass through the straits, but according to reports, this figure will fall to 15% from now onwards. In addition to this, the strain on supply is likely to remain for a minimum of 12 months. For this reason, investors do not expect the price of Crude Oil to fall to $55 per barrel. However, traders expect prices to fall further in the coming weeks, provided geopolitical tensions do not escalate again. In the medium term, price action indicates a potential decline to $74.95 per barrel, which was the price on the day the US and Israel struck Iran. However, economists advise that, for inflation to decline, oil prices must fall below $70 per barrel at a minimum. NASDAQ - SpaceX Rises The US stock market saw significant gains during this morning’s Asian session on the news of the deal being reached with Iran. In addition to this, the NASDAQ was particularly in demand due to SpaceX’s positive performance on Friday and during this morning’s pre-market trading. HFM - NASDAQ 30-Minute Chart The NASDAQ is obtaining key bullish signals from multiple tools and indicators. All global indices are trading higher this morning, while the VIX falls more than 5%. In addition to this, the put-call ratio falls below its two-month high, while bond yields fall by 40 basis points. All these factors support the NASDAQ, which is witnessing 85% of its components rising this morning. A key factor for the NASDAQ to continue performing well is for inflation to come under pressure and the Federal Reserve’s policy to remain neutral. The Chicago exchange rate expectations now sees the chance of a pause at 46%, up from 28% a week ago. If the possibility of a pause rises, the NASDAQ may find further support. Lastly, SpaceX began trading on the Nasdaq on 12 June 2026, but is not yet a component of the NASDAQ 100. Nasdaq recently changed its rules to allow very large IPOs to enter the Nasdaq-100 after as little as 15 trading days, instead of waiting several months. Many analysts expect the stock to be added in the near future. Space Exploration Technologies Corp rose 19% on its first day of trading and has also risen a further 5% during this morning’s Asian session. Gold and the US Dollar The US Dollar is under pressure as diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran make significant progress. The US Dollar is this morning’s worst-performing currency. Investor sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump reportedly cancelled planned strikes on Iranian infrastructure, and thereafter confirmed that an agreement had been made. The proposed deal would reportedly secure the reopening of key shipping routes through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. It would also include Iran’s commitment to abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions. For financial markets, these developments reduced concerns over a broader regional conflict and potential disruptions to global energy supplies. As geopolitical risks eased, investors reduced their demand for the US Dollar, triggering profit-taking and contributing to the currency’s decline. However, this saw Gold rebound as investors took advantage of the weakening Dollar and Gold’s low entry levels. HFM - Gold 15-Minute Chart Key Takeaway: Markets turned risk-on after the US and Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities. Oil prices fell sharply, with Crude oil dropping more than 5% and Brent oil declining 4.45%, easing concerns over energy supply disruptions. The NASDAQ rallied, supported by lower volatility, falling bond yields, improving Fed pause expectations, and strong gains in SpaceX shares. The US Dollar weakened significantly as investors reduced safe-haven positions following the diplomatic breakthrough. Gold rebounded from recent lows, benefiting from the weaker Dollar despite improving market sentiment. [B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/B] [B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B] Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to register for FREE! [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/'][B]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/B][/URL] [B]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/B] [B]Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  16. [B]Date: 12th June 2026.[/B] [B]Stock Market Today: Global Stocks Rally as Oil Prices Fall and SpaceX IPO Takes Centre Stage.[/B] Global markets surged on Friday as hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran boosted investor sentiment, driving stocks higher while oil prices retreated from recent highs. Meanwhile, traders are closely watching the highly anticipated debut of SpaceX, which is set to become the largest IPO in history. The combination of easing geopolitical tensions, falling energy prices, and renewed appetite for risk assets has created a strong risk-on environment across global financial markets. Global Stock Markets Rise on Iran Ceasefire Hopes Investor confidence improved significantly after US President Donald Trump announced that planned military strikes against Iran had been cancelled and suggested that a broader peace agreement could be finalised within days. Although Iran has yet to confirm a final agreement, markets reacted positively to signs that diplomatic efforts may be gaining momentum after months of conflict that disrupted energy markets and fuelled inflation concerns. Asian equity markets posted strong gains: South Korea’s KOSPI surged 7.8% Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 3.5% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.8% China’s Shanghai Composite advanced 1.6% Australia’s ASX 200 climbed 1.9% S&P 500 rose 1.8% Dow Jones Industrial Average rose +1.9% Nasdaq Composite rose +2.5% Technology stocks led the rally, with investors returning to AI-related companies after recent volatility. Notable movers included Samsung Electronics, which gained more than 11%, SK Hynix, which rose over 7%, and Tokyo Electron, which jumped more than 10%. US markets also enjoyed a strong session, with all three major indices posting their largest daily gains in months. The rally reflected growing optimism that lower oil prices could ease inflationary pressures and reduce the likelihood of further monetary tightening. The technology sector remained in focus, with investors balancing excitement over artificial intelligence growth against concerns that elevated valuations may be creating speculative excess. Why Are Oil Prices Falling? Oil prices extended losses after reports that diplomatic discussions between Washington and Tehran had progressed, reducing fears of an immediate escalation in the Middle East conflict. Brent crude fell toward $89 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded near $86 per barrel. The decline comes despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy shipping routes. Roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments typically pass through the strait, making any disruption a major concern for global energy markets. While markets have welcomed signs of progress, analysts continue to caution that any ceasefire agreement could remain fragile. Should negotiations collapse or supply disruptions persist, oil prices could quickly move higher again, potentially reigniting inflation concerns across major economies. Lower Oil Prices Ease Inflation Concerns Falling energy prices have helped reduce market expectations for additional interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields moved lower as investors reassessed inflation risks: U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield: 4.07% U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.47% Market pricing for another Federal Reserve rate hike later this year also declined, reflecting growing confidence that lower oil prices could support the disinflation process. For equity markets, the combination of softer energy prices and reduced rate hike expectations provides a supportive backdrop for risk assets. Currency Markets: Yen Remains Under Pressure In foreign exchange markets, the U.S. dollar stabilized after recent weakness. USDJPY traded near 160.20, a level many traders view as potentially sensitive for Japanese authorities. The yen remains close to levels that have previously prompted intervention from the Bank of Japan and the Japanese Ministry of Finance. Meanwhile, EURUSD held above 1.15 as investors continued to monitor developments in both the Middle East and global interest rate expectations. UK Economy Shows Signs of Slowing Economic data released on Friday showed that the UK economy contracted by 0.1% in April. The decline follows a strong first quarter and suggests that higher energy prices, elevated borrowing costs, and geopolitical uncertainty are beginning to weigh on economic activity. The weaker growth figures create an increasingly difficult balancing act for the Bank of England, which must manage inflation risks while avoiding further damage to economic growth. SpaceX IPO Dominates Market Attention The biggest event on traders' calendars today is the historic IPO of SpaceX. The company raised approximately $75 billion in what is expected to become the largest public offering ever, valuing the aerospace and satellite giant at approximately $1.77 trillion. Pre-market indications suggest investors remain highly optimistic, with some unofficial trading venues implying valuations above $2.3 trillion. A successful debut could have broader implications for the technology sector, particularly for future listings involving artificial intelligence, space infrastructure, and next-generation technology companies. Investors will be watching closely to see whether the IPO attracts additional capital into growth stocks or temporarily diverts funds away from established technology leaders. Key Market Themes to Watch Iran Peace Negotiations: Any confirmation or rejection of a ceasefire agreement could trigger significant volatility across equities, commodities, currencies, and safe-haven assets. Oil Price Direction: Crude oil remains one of the most important drivers of inflation expectations and central bank policy outlooks. SpaceX Trading Debut: The performance of the largest IPO in history could influence sentiment across the broader technology sector. Federal Reserve Expectations: Lower energy prices have reduced expectations for further policy tightening, but investors remain sensitive to inflation developments. Market Outlook Global markets are ending the week on a positive note as investors embrace the possibility of easing geopolitical tensions and lower energy prices. Falling oil prices have improved the outlook for inflation, supported equity markets, and reduced pressure on central banks to tighten policy further. However, traders should remain cautious. Previous optimism surrounding Middle East negotiations has faded quickly, and any setback in diplomatic discussions could rapidly reverse today's market moves. For now, risk sentiment remains firmly positive, with global stocks rallying, oil prices retreating, and investors turning their attention to what could become one of the most important IPO debuts in financial market history. [B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/B] [B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B] Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [URL='https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html'][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to register for FREE! [URL='https://analysis.hfm.com/'][B]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/B][/URL] [B]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/B] [B]Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  17. Date: 5th June 2026. Gold at a Crossroads: All Eyes on NFP Friday. As May’s NFP Change and the unemployment rate approaches for the US, Gold prices again take a dip. The price of the safe-haven asset has been forming a descending triangle pattern, indicating pressure on demand, but also forming a clear support level. The price movement of Gold and its outlook will particularly depend on the upcoming employment data. NFP Friday - What To Expect Market experts are expecting May’s NFP Employment Change to come in at 85,000, which is 30,000 lower than the previous month. Even though the market is expecting a lower employment change, a figure of 85,000 is still higher than the six-month average of 74,000. Traders can keep up to date with the latest releases with HFM's Calendar. The market also continues to expect the US unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% and for the average salary growth to be 0.3%. If the NFP reads higher than expectations, markets will expect the Dollar to potentially rise and Gold to simultaneously fall. Pressure on Gold will particularly rise if NFP comes in higher while the Unemployment Rate drops to 4.2%. However, traders should note that this would all depend on the data released. So far, this week’s employment data seems skewed toward an upside surprise or in line with current market expectations. The reason for this is that the recent ADP Employment figures beat expectations and rose to a 13-month high. In addition to this, the JOLTS Job Openings also came in considerably higher than expectations. However, yesterday’s Weekly Unemployment Claims rose to a four-month high of 225,000. The descending triangle pattern seen on Gold is also known to be a potential indication of downward price movement. Therefore, technical analysis will also be in line with the fundamentals if the US employment data is positive. However, a lower employment change and a higher unemployment rate can have the opposite effect. Gold Holds Neutral, But What Signals Are Emerging? On NFP Friday, the price of Gold fell during the Asian session by 1.09% to the $4,426.65 support level before rebounding at the London open. Nonetheless, the price continues to maintain lower highs and trades lower as the NFP release approaches. The US Dollar Index is also declining this morning, which can provide some support for Gold. However, a key factor will also be bond yields, which the US is struggling to keep below 4.50%. US bond yields in the last two weeks of May fell from their recent highs, but in June they have not fallen further. In June, bond yields have continued to trade sideways. How bond yields react after the NFP release will particularly impact Gold. If bond yields rise, gold may come under pressure, while lower bond yields can support the price. Gold trading remains active, although speculative positions continue to decline. This suggests that gold is moving away from its risk-driven investment appeal and returning to its traditional role as a safe-haven asset. According to the latest CFTC report, net speculative gold positions fell from 159.8 thousand to 154.3 thousand last week. However, investors still hold large buy positions. Buyers held 124.5 thousand positions, while sellers held 27.6 thousand. Last week, buyers slightly increased their positions, while sellers reduced theirs. Furthermore, what remains key for Gold is the possibility of an interest rate hike declining. Over the past 24 hours the possibility of a rate hike has remained at 46%, but investors will be watching how this changes after the NFP release. HFM - Gold 1-Hour Chart The price of Gold continues to remain below the key moving averages on the 1-hour and 2-hour charts. However, the price trades at 48.74 on the RSI, which is a clear neutral indication, meaning the price is not witnessing a clear sell signal. However, if the price declines below $4,442.15, Gold may see sell signals strengthen. If the price rises above $4,484.80, buy signals can potentially materialise. However, indications provided by technical analysis will also need to be in line with the NFP release, the US Dollar reaction, as well as the bond market. Key Takeaways: Gold remains under pressure ahead of the NFP release, with the price forming a descending triangle pattern. A stronger-than-expected NFP reading could support the US Dollar and pressure Gold, especially if unemployment falls and bond yields rise. A weaker NFP figure or higher unemployment rate could support Gold, particularly if the Dollar and US bond yields move lower after the release. Gold’s technical signal remains neutral for now. A move below $4,442.15 could strengthen sell signals, while a move above $4,484.80 could support buy signals. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  18. Date: 4th June 2026. US Dollar Surges While Broadcom Triggers a Tech Sell-Off. An interesting 24 hours for the financial markets, with strong new US economic data, a Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire, and Broadcom earnings. The US Dollar saw a significant rise on Wednesday and is now trading close to a two-month high. The latest US economic data, higher oil prices, and the lack of progress with Iran support the US Dollar. In addition to the US Dollar and oil rising, stock fell 1% as traders took a slightly more risk-off approach. This is due to weaker Broadcom earnings and interest rate expectations. Broadcom Earnings Fail to Meet Analysts’ Extreme Predictions Broadcom is the sixth most influential stock for the NASDAQ and holds a weight of almost 5%. The stock is declining more than 12%, with the price falling from $481 to $413. The reason for the decline was the latest earnings report, which was made public after the market closed. Even though the quarterly earnings report did not meet analysts’ expectations, most analysts are advising that the predictions may have been slightly overoptimistic and the official figures remain positive. Nonetheless, the stock continues to come under pressure from selling pressure as do NVIDIA, Micron Technology, and AMD stocks. Broadcom reported strong Q2 FY2026 results, with revenue up 48% YoY to $22.19 billion, adjusted EPS of $2.44, and adjusted EBITDA of $15.24 billion. The main driver was AI, with AI semiconductor revenue rising 143% YoY to $10.8 billion. For the next quarter, Broadcom guided revenue of around $29.4 billion and AI semiconductor revenue of $16.0 billion. This was the main sticking point for investors, who had been expecting greater guidance for the next quarter. NASDAQ - Broadcom’s Forward Guidance Pressures Tech Stocks The NASDAQ fell 0.80% on Wednesday, opened with a bearish gap this morning, and is falling a further 0.18% so far. The decline is largely due to the decline among semiconductor stocks, particularly Broadcom, which is witnessing extreme volatility. HFM - NASDAQ 30-Minute Chart However, the stronger US Dollar and higher oil prices are damaging demand for stocks, particularly while index trading is at an all-time high. A fear for investors is that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a further month. As a result, oil prices will remain higher for longer, and this is impacting interest rate expectations and can pressure GDP growth. According to the Chicago exchange, the market’s expectations for interest rate hikes in 2026 have risen over the past month from 32.9% to 46.6%. The increase in the likelihood of hawkish interest rate adjustments is pressuring demand for stocks. The VIX index, which rose 1.40% this morning, and the put-all ratio, which increased for the first time since 15 May, also point to sell signals. The put-all ratio also suggests that the stock market may be overstretched. However, the component percentage is yet to indicate a full bearish signal. 59% of the most influential stocks are decreasing in value, not enough to support a sell signal. If a further two stocks turn negative, the NASDAQ component percentage will also indicate a sell. Technical analysis, on the other hand, is providing a sell signal on smaller timeframes. The price trading below the VWAP and moving averages also shows this. The US Dollar - ADP Employment Change Exceeds Expectations The US Dollar is trading slightly lower this morning, but is considerably higher than yesterday’s open. The worst-performing currencies of the day so far are the Canadian Dollar and the Australian Dollar. The recent ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI were key reasons for the Dollar’s rise. April JOLTS data showed US job openings rising from 6.887 million to 7.618 million, well above forecasts of 6.860 million, signalling continued labour-market strength. Yesterday’s ADP NFP Change also came in higher than expectations, again supporting the currency further. The ADP NFP Change came in at 122,000, higher than expectations and the previous month. The ISM Services Index also read higher than expectations. Markets now await May employment data, which could increase expectations of tighter Fed policy if results are strong. The NFP change and unemployment rate will be made public tomorrow afternoon. Stronger data can again further support the Dollar. HFM - AUDUSD 30-Minute Chart Key Takeaways: The US Dollar strengthened after stronger US labour and services data reduced expectations of Fed support. The recent ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI was a key reason for the Dollar’s rise. Broadcom’s results were positive, but its AI guidance disappointed high investor expectations, pressuring semiconductor stocks. The NASDAQ weakened as tech stocks fell, the US Dollar rose, and oil prices increased. Markets look to May NFP and unemployment data, which could further influence Fed rate expectations. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  19. Date: 3rd June 2026. US Dollar Surges as Employment Data Sees Rate Cut Hopes Fade. The US Dollar regains momentum due to positive employment data fading any likelihood of interest rate cuts in 2026. The US JOLTS Job Openings data made public on Tuesday afternoon read considerably higher than market expectations. As a result, the US Dollar Index was quick to increase in value, with the bullish momentum continuing during this morning’s Asian session. The Middle East tensions are also partially supporting the price of the US Dollar due to its safe-haven status. According to reports, negotiations had been put on hold by Iran due to its dissatisfaction with Israel. However, according to Axios, the negotiations are back on track after President Trump pressured Netanyahu to avoid further escalations. Nonetheless, the higher tensions are triggering higher oil prices, which again are supporting the US Dollar. JOLTS Job Openings - US Dollar Finds Further Support The US JOLTS Job Openings rose to their highest since December 2026 and came in almost 800,000 above expectations. Analysts were expecting a figure in the region of 6.70-7.60 million new job vacancies, whereas the figure came in at 7.62 million. This afternoon, the US will also release the ADP NFP Change and the ISM Services PMI. Both releases will also further impact the Federal Reserve rate expectations and therefore also the US Dollar. Currently, there is less than a 1% possibility of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates in 2026, according to the CME. According to the CME, there is a 42% chance of no adjustments this year, a 1% chance of a small cut, and a 57% chance of a hike. The market’s hawkish expectations for monetary policy are supporting the price of the US Dollar. While inflation is rising and the employment sector remains resilient, there is little need for the Federal Reserve to consider lowering interest rates. This afternoon, the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, will also speak regarding the 2027 budget. Investors will closely monitor comments from Mr Bessent, and they could potentially impact the Dollar and US Markets. AUDUSD - Australian GDP Underperforms While the US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day, one of the currencies coming under pressure is the Australian Dollar. The Australian Dollar had been one of the best-performing of the previous days and of the year so far. However, a string of poor economic releases is putting the currency and the Reserve Bank of Australia under pressure. For this reason, the AUDUSD is trading 0.25% lower during this morning’s Asian session. Earlier in the day, Australia released its quarterly Gross Domestic Product. The GDP figure was 0.3%, lower than the market’s expectations of 0.5%. In addition to this, last week’s inflation figures also fell from 4.6% to 4.2%, again lower than expectations and pressuring the RBA not to become overly hawkish. HFM - AUDUSD 30-Minute Chart The AUD still remains the best-performing currency of the year, but poor economic data can support a correction in favour of the USD. On the 2-hour chart, the price is trading at the 100-bar SMA and slightly below the 75-bar EMA. In addition to this, the RSI is trading at 46.20, slightly above the sell zone. On smaller timeframes, such as the 5-minute chart, the price trades below the 200-bar SMA and with clear lower lows. However, on this timeframe, the RSI is again trading above 45.00. For this reason, the AUDUSD is showing a minor bearish bias, but not yet a clear bearish signal. However, if the price falls below 0.71565, sell signals may potentially materialise. Crude Oil - Trump Rebukes Netanyahu The price of crude oil continues to increase in value as the sentiment towards de-escalation in the Middle East remains shaky. Israel carried out new strikes in southern Lebanon despite a reported US-backed de-escalation effort. Reuters reported that Israel struck south Lebanon after holding off on attacks against Beirut due to US pressure. Currently, the market is unsure whether the US is brokering a ceasefire or simply a series of actions to de-escalate. So far, Israel is holding off on attacking the Lebanese capital. Hezbollah has accepted a US proposal to stop attacks on Israel in exchange for Israel avoiding strikes on Beirut and its suburbs. Fighting, however, has continued in the south. HFM - Crude Oil 30-Minute Chart Nonetheless, the price of Crude Oil continues to rise, with charts showing clear buy signals on smaller timeframes. For example, the RSI continues to rise above 65.00, and the price trades above the VWAP. Nonetheless, $100 per barrel is a clear psychological price for traders and can act as a resistance level. Key Takeaways: JOLTS Job Openings exceeded expectations, reinforcing confidence in the US labour market and boosting the Dollar. Markets now see almost no chance of Fed rate cuts in 2026, with expectations shifting towards rates remaining unchanged or even rising. Australia's GDP growth missed forecasts, increasing pressure on the RBA and helping drive AUD/USD lower. Uncertainty around Israel-Lebanon de-escalation efforts is keeping oil prices elevated, while safe-haven demand continues to support the US Dollar. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  20. Date: 2nd June 2026. NASDAQ Pulls Back, But AI Stocks Continue to Attract Demand. The NASDAQ fell during this morning’s Asian session after the US and Iran put negotiations on hold. Regardless of the decline, the demand for AI and tech-stocks continues. US-Iran strikes around the Strait of Hormuz have kept markets on edge, but negotiations had not stopped before today. However, Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon are intensifying, which is why Iran has taken the decision to pause negotiations. The new developments are applying some pressure on market sentiment, but the demand for AI remains strong. For this reason, the downward price movement was limited. During yesterday’s US session, Alphabet, one of the most successful tech companies, announced a stock sale of $80 billion to raise capital for AI. So far, the stock has slightly dipped during this morning’s pre-trading hours. However, traders will be closely watching price movement after the market opens. Alphabet to Raise $80 Billion for AI Alphabet stocks has been one of the best-performing of the past five years, increasing more than 200%. A large part of the company’s recent success is from the demand for AI products. Late during the US session on Monday, the company announced stock sales of $80 billion in order to raise capital for AI. Alphabet plans to invest $80 billion in AI-related infrastructure, data centres, chips, and cloud capacity to support growing AI demand. The company will primarily use the spending to expand its AI capabilities across Google Search, Gemini, Google Cloud, and Workspace. The company views AI as the next major growth driver and is accelerating investment despite concerns over rising capital expenditure. For the move to be a success, the company must convince the market it can monetise AI products. However, in the short-term, a boost for Alphabet’s move is Berkshire Hathaway’s decision to invest $10 billion in the stock sales. NASDAQ Bullish Stocks In addition to Alphabet, other vital stocks for the NASDAQ are also delivering positive news. Cisco stock, which is the 15th most influential for the NASDAQ, has risen almost 60% in 2026. Bank of America increased its target price from $114.00 to $135.00 and maintained a buy rating, noting that Cisco is well positioned to benefit from the shift from 400G to 800G optical networking. The current stock price is $121.33 and did not dip on Monday like most stocks. Demand linked to AI infrastructure has grown sharply, while Cisco’s order book has strengthened, including a fibre-optic order worth over $1.0 billion from Acacia Research. The best-performing stock on Monday was Arm Holdings plc, which holds a weight of approximately 1.05%. Arm Holdings jumped around 15% on Monday, mainly because Nvidia announced a new AI PC chip using Arm-based CPU designs. US-Iran Negotiations The Israel-Hezbollah conflict is intensifying, and political experts now believe Israel will aim to push the buffer zone beyond the Litani River. In response, Iran has told the US it will not negotiate further. Due to this, US attention has turned to Hezbollah and Israel attempting to apply pressure to achieve a ceasefire. President Trump has generally made positive comments and said he will achieve a ceasefire. However, the Israeli Prime Minister’s accounts have been less positive. This development dampened sentiment within the market, as oil prices have risen from $89 per barrel to $96 before retracing. However, despite this, demand remains high and the market continues to price in an end to the conflict. NASDAQ (USA100) - Technical Analysis HFM - NASDAQ 1-Hour Chart During the Asian session, the price fell 0.74% and fell below the day’s VWAP. However, the bearish price movement was short-lived and is now trading above the VWAP and above the key moving averages. For example, on the 5-minute chart, the price is increasing above 200-bar moving average. Though, if the price finds resistance at $30,570.00, the price will form a head and shoulders pattern, which is known to be a bearish indication. However, on medium-term timeframes, the price maintains its bullish bias. It trades above 55.00 on the RSI and remains above key trend lines. Key Takeaways: NASDAQ dips on geopolitical tensions: The index fell after Iran paused negotiations with the US, increasing uncertainty. AI demand continues to support tech stocks: Despite weaker sentiment, strong AI-related investment and earnings expectations limited downside pressure. Alphabet commits $80 billion to AI: The company plans a major expansion of its AI infrastructure, with Berkshire Hathaway reportedly backing the move with a $10 billion investment. AI-linked stocks remain strong: Cisco gained analyst support on growing AI networking demand. Arm Holdings surged 15% after Nvidia unveiled a new AI PC chip using Arm technology. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  21. Date: 29th May 2026. Forex Market Analysis Today: FX, Gold, Oil & Stock Index Outlook. Overview Global markets are entering today's session with major stock indices trading near record highs, oil prices under pressure, and currency markets reacting to shifting central bank expectations. For forex traders and index day traders, the focus should be on the dominant macroeconomic themes driving market sentiment rather than attempting to trade every economic release. This daily forex market analysis examines the key factors influencing FX markets, stock indices, gold prices, and oil markets, while highlighting the most important economic events and trading opportunities to watch throughout the day. Forex Market Outlook: What Is Driving Markets Today? Middle East Ceasefire Supports Risk Sentiment One of the most important drivers of market sentiment today is the ongoing discussion surrounding the US–Iran ceasefire extension and efforts to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Global equity markets have responded positively, while oil prices are on track for their steepest weekly decline in nearly two months as traders price in the possibility of improved shipping conditions and reduced geopolitical risk. For traders, developments in the Middle East remain a major source of potential volatility. Positive headlines tend to support risk assets such as stock indices and commodity-linked currencies, while negative developments can quickly trigger demand for safe-haven assets. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Continue to Lead Higher The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently recorded fresh all-time highs, supported by lower Treasury yields and continued investor enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence and technology stocks. European indices, including the DAX and FTSE 100, remain near the upper end of their recent trading ranges, reflecting broad risk-on sentiment across global markets. While the prevailing trend remains bullish, traders should remain alert to potential profit-taking or ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ reactions, particularly around major economic releases and geopolitical headlines. Inflation and Central Bank Expectations Remain Key Although inflation has eased from previous peaks, it remains above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target. Recent economic data suggests moderate growth across major economies, while central banks continue to balance inflation concerns against slowing economic momentum. For forex traders, inflation data and interest rate expectations remain critical drivers of currency valuations. Any unexpected change in the outlook for future rate cuts could significantly impact the US dollar and broader market sentiment. Economic Calendar Today: Key Events for Forex Traders Today’s economic calendar contains several releases capable of generating volatility across forex pairs, stock indices, commodities, and bond markets. High-Impact Economic Events United States Advance Goods Trade Balance Wholesale Inventories Retail Inventories Chicago PMI Manufacturing-related data Construction Spending Eurozone M3 Money Supply Loans to Households and Businesses Unemployment Rate United Kingdom Nationwide House Price Index Final Manufacturing PMI Asia Japan Industrial Production China PMI Data Which Events Matter Most? For day traders, the highest-priority releases are those capable of influencing growth expectations, inflation forecasts, and central bank policy. Tier 1 Events US PMI releases ISM-related data Major spending and production reports Tier 2 Events Eurozone unemployment data European PMI releases UK housing market data Tier 3 Events Minor revisions Low-impact sentiment surveys Government bond auctions US releases during the New York session are likely to generate the largest moves in the US dollar, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Treasury yields. Stock Index Analysis: S&P 500, Nasdaq, and DAX Outlook S&P 500 Outlook The S&P 500 remains the benchmark for global risk sentiment. Trading above previous highs continues to attract momentum buyers, although stretched positioning increases the probability of short-term pullbacks. Traders should watch whether support holds above previous breakout levels. Sustained strength could encourage further upside, while failed breakouts may trigger profit-taking. Nasdaq Forecast Technology stocks continue to dominate market leadership, with AI-related companies remaining a primary source of strength. As long as Treasury yields remain contained, the Nasdaq is likely to remain supported. However, any sharp rise in yields or hawkish central bank commentary could disproportionately affect technology valuations. DAX and European Markets The DAX remains in a constructive uptrend but remains more sensitive to changes in energy prices and European economic data. Oil market volatility and Eurozone releases may have a larger impact on European equities than on US markets. Potential Trading Scenarios Breakout Continuation If markets maintain positive sentiment and major indices hold above recent highs, pullbacks towards previous resistance levels could offer opportunities for trend-following traders. Reversal Setup Should geopolitical tensions escalate or economic data significantly disappoint expectations, failed breakouts and lower highs may present short-selling opportunities. Forex Trading Outlook: EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY EURUSD Outlook The euro has benefited from recent dollar weakness and improving risk sentiment. If US economic data remains soft and Treasury yields continue to ease, EURUSD could remain supported throughout the session. Key drivers include: US economic releases Eurozone unemployment data Treasury yield movements GBPUSD Analysis Sterling remains sensitive to domestic economic data and broader dollar sentiment. Positive UK data combined with a weaker US dollar could continue supporting GBPUSD. Traders should monitor: UK PMI data Housing market figures US macroeconomic releases USDJPY Forecast USDJPY remains one of the most closely watched currency pairs due to ongoing intervention concerns from Japanese authorities. The yen has weakened toward levels that previously prompted official intervention, increasing the risk of sudden volatility. Forex traders should: Reduce leverage when trading JPY pairs Monitor comments from Japanese officials Be prepared for rapid reversals around intervention-sensitive levels Commodity Market Analysis: Gold and Oil Outlook Oil Price Outlook Oil prices remain highly sensitive to developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East ceasefire negotiations. While expectations of improved shipping conditions have pressured crude prices lower, uncertainty remains. Any setback in negotiations could trigger a rapid reversal. Oil traders should expect: Increased headline-driven volatility Potential intraday whipsaws Strong correlation with risk sentiment Gold Price Analysis Gold continues to balance two competing forces: Lower Treasury yields supporting prices Improved risk sentiment reducing safe-haven demand If yields continue to decline, gold may remain supported. However, stronger-than-expected US economic data could lift yields and weigh on the precious metal. Gold traders should closely monitor: US yields Federal Reserve expectations Geopolitical developments Risk Management Tips for Day Traders Successful trading is not just about finding opportunities; it is also about managing risk effectively. Before the Trading Session Mark the previous day’s highs and lows. Identify key support and resistance levels. Note all major economic releases. Build a focused watchlist of key instruments. During the Trading Session Trade in line with the dominant macro narrative. Use technical analysis to refine entries and exits. Reduce position size during periods of elevated volatility. Avoid overtrading around major news events. Protecting Trading Capital Always use hard stop-loss orders. Set a maximum daily loss limit. Avoid excessive leverage. Monitor correlation risk across positions. For example, being long the S&P 500, long EURUSD, and short USDJPY may effectively represent the same risk-on market view. What Is Moving the Forex Market Today? The forex market today is being driven primarily by three themes: Middle East ceasefire developments and oil market reactions. Record highs in global stock indices and improving risk sentiment. Ongoing adjustments to central bank interest rate expectations. These themes are influencing currency pairs, stock indices, gold prices, and commodities simultaneously, making them essential for traders to monitor throughout the session. Final Market Outlook The overall market environment remains constructive, supported by record-high equity markets, softer bond yields, and improving geopolitical sentiment. However, traders should remain cautious, as headline-driven reversals and unexpected economic data releases can quickly change market direction. For forex traders and index day traders, the most effective approach today is to focus on a small number of high-probability opportunities, remain aligned with the dominant market narrative, and maintain disciplined risk management throughout the trading session. By combining macroeconomic awareness with technical analysis and prudent risk control, traders can better navigate today’s market conditions while protecting themselves against sudden volatility. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  22. Date: 28th May 2026. Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Fall as Hormuz Strikes Push Oil Prices Higher. US Stock Futures Slip as Markets React to Hormuz Strikes and Rising Oil Prices US stock futures moved lower on Thursday as investors weighed renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East against another wave of strong AI-driven corporate earnings. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell around 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures declined 0.4%. Nasdaq 100 futures underperformed, with losses near 0.8%, as traders reacted cautiously to reports of fresh US military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz. The renewed conflict in the Persian Gulf pushed oil prices sharply higher and reignited concerns about inflation, global energy supply disruptions, and the potential impact on Federal Reserve policy. Why Markets Fell Today Investor sentiment turned cautious after reports confirmed that US forces conducted new strikes targeting military sites and drone threats near the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes. The situation escalated further after Iran reportedly responded with retaliatory actions targeting US-linked military infrastructure in the region. At the same time, Washington introduced fresh sanctions aimed at limiting Tehran’s ability to profit from traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Although negotiations between the US and Iran are still ongoing, markets are increasingly concerned that diplomatic talks may fail, prolonging supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty. As a result: Oil prices surged Treasury yields climbed Technology stocks lost momentum in pre-market trading Investors shifted toward defensive positioning Oil Prices Spike Following Renewed Persian Gulf Tensions Brent crude climbed above $97 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded near $92 per barrel after the latest developments in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most strategically important shipping routes globally, handling a significant portion of the world’s oil exports. Any disruption to flows through the waterway immediately impacts energy markets and inflation expectations worldwide. Analysts warned that if negotiations collapse entirely, oil prices could move substantially higher during the summer months, particularly if global inventories continue tightening. The latest rise in crude prices also revived fears that higher energy costs may keep inflation elevated longer than expected. Federal Reserve Inflation Data in Focus Investors are now turning their attention toward the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The data could significantly influence expectations regarding future interest rate decisions. Higher-than-expected inflation readings would likely strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep rates elevated for longer or potentially consider additional tightening measures later in 2026. Rising oil prices further complicate the inflation outlook, as energy costs often feed into broader consumer prices. Bond Yields Rise as Inflation Concerns Return US Treasury yields climbed alongside oil prices as markets priced in renewed inflation risks. The 10-year Treasury yield rose toward 4.50%, reflecting investor concerns that persistent geopolitical instability and elevated energy prices could delay potential monetary easing from the Federal Reserve. Historically, rising bond yields tend to pressure growth-oriented sectors such as technology because higher interest rates reduce the present value of future earnings. Global Markets Turn Lower Asian markets traded mostly lower following the renewed escalation in the Middle East. Japan’s Nikkei 225, South Korea’s KOSPI, Chinese equities, and Australian stocks all posted declines as investors reduced exposure to risk assets. Meanwhile, gold prices eased slightly despite geopolitical uncertainty, as stronger Treasury yields limited demand for non-yielding assets. Market Outlook: AI Optimism vs Geopolitical Risk Financial markets are currently balancing two major themes: Strong optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and technology growth Rising geopolitical risks tied to the Middle East conflict and energy supply disruptions The AI trade continues to provide strong support for equity markets, particularly within semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, and enterprise software. However, escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz present a significant macroeconomic risk that could fuel inflation, pressure central banks, and increase market volatility in the coming weeks. Investors will now closely monitor: US-Iran diplomatic negotiations Oil price movements Federal Reserve inflation data Treasury yield trends Upcoming earnings reports from major retailers and technology firms As markets enter the final stretch of earnings season, volatility may remain elevated while traders assess whether AI-driven growth can continue offsetting mounting geopolitical uncertainty. AI Earnings Continue Supporting Technology Stocks Despite geopolitical concerns, the artificial intelligence boom continues to support investor optimism across the technology sector. Several major companies delivered strong quarterly earnings results, highlighting robust demand tied to AI infrastructure, cloud computing, and enterprise technology spending. Snowflake Surges After Massive AWS Deal One of the biggest market movers was Snowflake, whose shares surged more than 30% in after-hours trading. The company exceeded Wall Street expectations and announced a massive $6 billion multi-year infrastructure agreement with Amazon Web Services (AWS). The deal reinforced confidence that AI-related spending remains strong despite broader economic uncertainty. The results also demonstrated that businesses continue increasing investments in cloud computing and AI-powered data infrastructure. Marvell and HP Highlight AI Hardware Demand Marvell Technology and HP also posted earnings that pointed toward continued strength in AI-related spending. Demand for chips, servers, and AI-capable computing systems remains elevated as corporations accelerate AI adoption across industries. However, not all technology earnings impressed investors equally. Salesforce Forecast Raises AI Competition Concerns Salesforce reported earnings that beat analysts’ estimates, but investors reacted cautiously to the company’s softer guidance. Markets are increasingly concerned that rapid advancements in generative AI could disrupt traditional software business models and intensify competition across the enterprise technology sector. Final Thoughts Today’s market action highlights the increasingly fragile balance between bullish AI-driven momentum and global geopolitical instability. While strong earnings from major technology companies continue supporting equity valuations, renewed tensions near the Strait of Hormuz have reminded investors how quickly geopolitical events can shift market sentiment. The combination of rising oil prices, inflation uncertainty, and central bank expectations is likely to remain the dominant market theme heading into the summer months. For traders and investors alike, risk management and close monitoring of macroeconomic developments will remain critical in navigating today’s highly volatile financial landscape. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  23. Date: 27th May 2026. ECB, RBNZ and Goldman Sachs Renew Support for Market Trends. Despite the US breaking the US-Iran ceasefire, the Middle East crisis remains the same, with negotiations continuing. Investors are not pricing in an escalation in the conflict while negotiations continue and the White House seems positive. In particular, the US stock market remains in a bullish trend and continues to break into new all-time highs. Goldman Sachs, within the past few hours, made public its adjustments to its target price for the S&P 500. The target price for the S&P 500 has risen to $8,000, more than 6% higher than the current price. In addition to this, the currency market is also experiencing strong volatility during this morning’s Asian session due to comments from central banks and new economic releases. Euro - ECB June Rate Hike Over the past month, the Euro has come under pressure from energy prices. Europe is heavily reliant on importing energy products and commodities, and its importers are limited due to shutting out Russia. Due to this, investors are reluctant to increase their exposure to the Euro. However, comments from the past 24 hours are providing some support. ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras has signalled that a June rate hike is now highly likely. This reinforces the market view that the European Central Bank may need to tighten policy again if inflationary pressures persist. His comments suggest the ECB is becoming increasingly concerned about incoming economic data, especially inflation expectations and the risk that higher prices become more entrenched. Even though Mr Stournaras is the latest ECB member to signal a rate adjustment, he is not the only member. Both Philip Lane and Isabel Schnabel have recently made similar statements. For markets, this keeps attention firmly on the June ECB meeting, as a rate hike could support the Euro. The Euro is the second-best-performing currency during this morning’s Asian session and is increasing in value against the GBP, US Dollar, and Japanese Yen. The EURUSD is trading above the key moving averages on short-medium term timeframes and has broken above the previous high. For this reason, technical analysis provides a bullish bias, but traders are slightly cautious of the resistance level at 1.16519. New Zealand Dollar & Australian Dollar The New Zealand Dollar is the best-performing currency this morning after finding support from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s vote split. The RBNZ held its interest rates at 2.25%, but the voting split was much more hawkish than a simple hold suggests. The voting split was a 3-3 vote, with Governor Anna Breman using her casting vote to keep rates unchanged. As there were three Monetary Policy Committee members opting for an immediate 25-bp hike, investors are expecting a hawkish path for the central bank. HFM - NZDUSD 30-Minute Chart The Australian Dollar, on the other hand, is the worst-performing currency of the session so far. The AUD is trading 0.26% lower, while the NZD is gaining a considerable 0.65%. The Australian Dollar is the best-performing currency of 2026 so far due to positive economic data and its monetary policy outlook. However, recent data is underperforming, pressuring the currency. This morning, Australia’s inflation rate fell from 4.6% to 4.2%, lower than analysts’ expectations of 4.4%. The monthly rate was 0.4%, again lower than expectations. S&P 500 - Goldman Sachs Increases Target to $8000 The S&P 500 declined slightly on Tuesday, while the NASDAQ continued to rise. The NASDAQ found support from Micron Technology stock, which rose almost 20% in a single session. However, this may provide an opportunity for traders who are cautious about trading at all time-highs. The price of the retracement from Tuesday was relatively weak and is not indicating a change in trend so far. This morning, the price is again trading higher, but is not yet signalling a bullish price movement. In order for buy signals to strengthen, traders will be looking for the price to rise above $7,539.30. On Tuesday, 44% of the S&P 500 rose in value, and the most volatile stocks were bullish assets. For this reason, traders continue to keep a bullish view of the S&P 500. In addition to this, the VIX index is trading lower as is the put-call Ratio, which has fallen to 0.64. This indicates that the market continues to hold a risk-on appetite. Lastly, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 year-end S&P 500 target to $8,000 from $7,600. This is mainly because it expects stronger corporate earnings to continue driving the index higher, but also because of the bullish trend. The bank said earnings growth has powered the S&P 500’s return so far this year and expects that trend to continue. However, other economists advise that this is only possible with an end to the Middle East crisis. HFM - S&P 500 1-Hour Chart Key Takeaways: The Euro is finding support after several ECB policymakers signalled that a June rate hike is increasingly likely. The New Zealand Dollar is outperforming after the RBNZ’s hawkish 3-3 vote split raised expectations of future rate hikes. The Australian Dollar is under pressure after weaker-than-expected inflation data reduced support for a more hawkish monetary policy outlook. The S&P 500 remains bullish, supported by positive market sentiment and Goldman Sachs raising its target to $8,000. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  24. Date: 26th May 2026. Oil Surges on US-Iran Conflict: How Stocks, Dollar, and Global Markets React. Global Markets React to Rising Middle East Tensions Global financial markets turned volatile after renewed US military strikes in southern Iran and ongoing uncertainty surrounding negotiations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Investor sentiment shifted rapidly between optimism over a potential peace agreement and concern that escalating tensions could prolong disruptions to global energy supplies. The result was a sharp rotation across oil, equities, currencies, bonds, and precious metals, with investors reassessing inflation risks and global growth expectations. Oil Prices Become the Key Market Driver Oil markets reacted immediately to geopolitical developments, highlighting the sensitivity of global energy flows. Brent crude initially fell sharply on expectations that US-Iran negotiations were progressing and that a potential agreement could ease supply risks. However, sentiment reversed after reports of renewed military activity, with oil prices rebounding toward higher levels. The volatility reflects a key market concern: whether a diplomatic breakthrough can stabilise shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or whether disruptions to global supply chains will persist. Energy traders remain focused on the risk that prolonged instability could keep oil prices elevated, adding pressure to global inflation. Stock Markets Turn Mixed Amid Uncertainty Global equities reflected the same uncertainty. In the United States, ^GSPC futures initially rose on hopes that lower oil prices could ease inflation and support economic growth. However, gains moderated as geopolitical risks resurfaced. Technology stocks showed relative resilience, supported by ongoing optimism around artificial intelligence and long-term growth in semiconductor demand. In Asia, Japan's N225 declined as higher oil prices raised concerns for energy-import-dependent economies. Meanwhile, Hong Kong and South Korea showed more stability, supported by technology sector strength. European equities also remained cautious as investors weighed slowing growth against persistent energy inflation risks. The US Dollar Strengthens on Safe-Haven Demand The US dollar strengthens as investors move into safer assets amid geopolitical uncertainty. Demand for dollar-denominated assets increased as markets reassessed risk, while expectations of persistent inflation supported the currency further. Rising oil prices also reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for longer, supporting US Treasury yields and strengthening the dollar. As a result, major currencies such as the euro and Japanese yen came under pressure. Gold and Bonds Reflect Risk Sentiment Shifts Gold initially benefited from safe-haven flows but later lost momentum as the dollar strengthened and bond yields stabilised. Meanwhile, Treasury markets reacted to changing inflation expectations, with yields fluctuating alongside oil prices. The key driver remains energy inflation, which continues to shape central bank expectations globally. Key Market Outlook Markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East. The main focus going forward is whether diplomatic negotiations can stabilise energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Until clarity emerges, volatility across oil, stocks, currencies, and bonds is expected to remain elevated. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  25. Date: 25th May 2026. Global Markets Rally as Iran Peace Talks Progress | Oil Prices Fall, Stocks Surge & Gold Rebounds. Global financial markets started the week on a strong footing as optimism surrounding US-Iran peace negotiations boosted investor sentiment and triggered a sharp decline in oil prices. Asian equities rallied, Wall Street futures advanced, and the US dollar weakened as traders increasingly priced in the possibility of a diplomatic resolution that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore disrupted energy flows. The developments mark a major turning point for financial markets after months of heightened geopolitical tensions, soaring energy prices, and persistent inflation fears driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most strategically important shipping routes, handling a significant portion of global crude oil exports. Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict earlier this year, disruptions in the strait severely impacted global oil transportation, tightening supply conditions and driving crude prices sharply higher. Countries heavily dependent on imported energy, including Japan and several European economies, faced rising energy costs and growing inflationary pressure. Now, hopes that the strait could fully reopen are reshaping market expectations. According to regional reports and US officials, negotiations between Washington and Tehran are progressing, with discussions focusing on: reopening the Strait of Hormuz, restoring oil shipments, extending ceasefire agreements, and reducing regional tensions. Although US President Donald Trump stated that negotiations are moving ‘constructively,’ he also cautioned that the United States would not rush into a final agreement. This uncertainty continues to keep markets highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines. Crude oil markets reacted immediately to the diplomatic developments. Brent crude fell more than 5%, dropping below $98 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slid toward the $91 level. The sharp decline reflects expectations that global supply disruptions could ease if tanker traffic through Hormuz resumes normally. The market reaction was also supported by reports that: liquefied natural gas tankers have resumed movement through the strait, commercial vessels are once again receiving transit authorisation, and some previously stranded crude shipments have successfully departed the Gulf region. Lower oil prices helped improve broader market sentiment because traders now anticipate: reduced inflationary pressure, easing transportation costs, and lower risks of a prolonged global energy shock. However, analysts warn that volatility may remain elevated because negotiations are still ongoing and the energy supply chain may take months to fully normalise. Asian equity markets responded positively to the improving geopolitical outlook. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged nearly 3% to fresh record highs, driven by gains in technology and export-oriented companies. Taiwan’s market also advanced strongly, while mainland Chinese equities moved higher despite lingering concerns over domestic regulatory developments. Broader investor appetite for risk returned as traders shifted focus away from war-driven uncertainty and back toward economic growth opportunities and artificial intelligence-related momentum. The rally extended to US equity futures, with both S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures climbing sharply ahead of the Memorial Day holiday closure in the United States. The MSCI All Country World Index also approached all-time highs as global investors embraced a renewed risk-on environment. Currency markets reflected the changing investor sentiment. The US dollar weakened against most major currencies, while the euro, British pound, and Japanese yen gained ground. The decline in the dollar was fuelled by: falling oil prices, improving market confidence, and expectations that easing inflation pressures could eventually reduce the need for aggressive monetary tightening. A weaker dollar also provided additional support for commodities and precious metals. Gold prices moved higher even as geopolitical fears eased, an unusual but important signal for traders. Typically, improving global stability pressures safe-haven assets lower. However, this time gold benefited from: the weakening US dollar, declining Treasury yields, and expectations that lower oil prices may help contain inflation over the medium term. Spot gold climbed back above $4,550 per ounce after recent losses, although prices remain significantly below the highs reached during the peak of the conflict earlier this year. Market participants are also closely monitoring the policy stance of new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, as investors attempt to gauge the future direction of interest rates. Despite the recent decline in oil prices, inflation concerns have not disappeared. Energy prices surged dramatically during the conflict, contributing to elevated global inflation expectations and pushing bond yields higher across major economies. Markets are currently reassessing the outlook for central bank policy, particularly in the United States. Traders are increasingly focused on: upcoming US inflation data, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures, Federal Reserve commentary, and the possibility that interest rates could remain higher for longer. While falling crude prices may ease inflationary pressure, analysts caution that: supply chains remain fragile, energy markets are still vulnerable, and geopolitical risks have not fully disappeared. As a result, interest rate volatility may continue to dominate trading conditions throughout the second half of 2026. Alongside geopolitical developments, investors are also monitoring regulatory risks emerging from China. Chinese authorities launched a major crackdown on illicit cross-border stock trading in an effort to reduce capital outflows and strengthen domestic financial controls. Regulators imposed heavy fines on online brokerages, including: Futu Holdings Ltd Up Fintech Holding Ltd Authorities also ordered illegal offshore trading accounts to be liquidated within two years. The move triggered: sharp declines in Chinese-linked technology stocks, increased uncertainty surrounding Hong Kong market liquidity, and concerns over tighter restrictions on international investing. For traders, the crackdown highlights how regulatory policy remains an important driver of market volatility, particularly within Chinese and emerging market assets. As markets continue reacting to geopolitical and macroeconomic developments, traders should closely monitor several major themes: US-Iran Negotiations: Any confirmation of a finalised agreement could trigger further declines in oil prices and support risk assets globally. Strait of Hormuz Reopening: The speed and scale of shipping normalisation will heavily influence energy markets and inflation expectations. Central Bank Policy: Inflation data and comments from major central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, could significantly impact currencies, equities, gold, and bonds. Oil Market Volatility: Despite recent declines, crude oil remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments and supply disruptions. Chinese Regulatory Measures: Further restrictions on capital flows or overseas investing could impact Asian equities and broader investor sentiment. Global markets are beginning to price in the possibility of a more stable geopolitical environment after months of uncertainty. Lower oil prices, improving risk sentiment, and hopes for easing inflation have created a supportive backdrop for equities and other risk assets. However, traders should remain cautious as negotiations remain ongoing and geopolitical developments can shift rapidly. At the same time, central bank policy, inflation trends, and regulatory risks, particularly from China, continue to create an environment where volatility may remain elevated across asset classes. For traders, maintaining flexibility and closely monitoring macroeconomic developments will remain essential as markets navigate one of the most complex global environments seen in recent years. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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