ValdisTF Posted March 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 07.03.2016 Fundamental analysis The market sentiment worsened after the weak US data publication. The dollar lost ground against the European currency. Initial Jobless Claims in the USA rose to 278 000 from 272 000, labor costs sharply fell to 3.3% against the expected growth of 4.7%. The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release. The data came more than expected 190 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 242 thousand. Some economists believe that the strong employment data in the private sector will make it possible for the Fed's to increase the rate at its meeting on March 16th. The USA published another important release: unemployment rate for February (the previous value was 4.9%, the forecast was 4.9%). The data came in at the forecasted median. The pair EUR/USD strengthened by the end of the trades. The pound was trying to grow still the negative fundamental background showed that we should expect a new downtrend in the near future. All three UK Markit’s reports from published this week disappointed investors with their weak data. In addition service PMI for February dropped to its lowest level since March 2013 to 52.7 vs. 55.1. The pair GBP/USD increased. The USA published the foreign trade balance for January (the previous value was 43.36B; the forecast was -43.5B). The pair USD/JPY is trading in a side corridor. Technical analysis Euro General overview The positive reports from the euro zone supported the euro. Service PMI rose to 53.3 from 53.0, while retail sales increased by 2.0% y/y, when analysts expected a slowdown in growth by 1.3% from 2.1% in January. We believe that the weak US data were a driver of the pair’s growth. The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The downward bounce potential targets are 1.0925 and 1.0800. Pound General overview The pair got under pressure after the latest UK releases: service PMI for February fell to 52.7 from 55.6 against the forecast of 55.1. This is the minimum value in nearly three years and is another sign that the UK economy is not in great shape. If this tendency is continued the Bank of England may indeed have to think about the economy stimulation. However, the pound negative reaction was short-lived due to the unstable dollar. The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.4240 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4320 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen General overview The Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said that the negative interest rates policy was not intended to affect the Forex market. The demand for the safe haven yen weakened as oil prices recovered on Friday and remained over $34, as concerns over global oversupply seemed to have waned. The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 114.60 and 115.40. Franc General overview The growth of the Swiss economy in Q4 exceeded forecasts due to internal costs. Consequently, the country managed to overcome the consequences of export volume decrease as a result of the franc increased. Swiss GDP grew by 0.4% after a decline of 0.1% in the third quarter. This result was the highest for the year, and exceeded economists’ forecasts who had expected an increase of 0.2%. The first support lies at 0.9850 and then at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100. There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9960. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0100. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 08.03.2016 Fundamental analysis Market attention last week was directed to the long-awaited report on the US labor market, that had shown a positive increase. However despite such a strong result, the dollar weakened against the European currencies, showing a short-term positive reaction. This was because the market paid considerable attention to hourly earnings index which were very disappointing. After January growth of 0.5% the indicator went to the negative territory, reaching -0.2% vs. expected + 0.2%. In spite of the still favorable labor market conditions, the inflation at the consumer level can not let the Federal Reserve tighten the monetary policy in the foreseeable future. In economic news, Germany published factory orders (-0,1% against the forecasted -0,3%) and Eurozone revealed Sentix investor confidence (5,5 against the forecasted 8,0). The ECB meeting is the key event of this week. We expect the ECB to expand its stimulus to support the economy of the region. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD strengthened. Despite the "black gold" growth the British currency growth slowed down anyway. The slow down may be a signal for investors to begin taking profit on long positions. The pair GBP/USD showed a strong growth by the end of the trades on Monday. The pair USD/JPY continues the trades in a flat. Technical analysis Euro General overview The dollar failed to develop a bullish impulse. When the market drew attention to the labor market report traders stopped buying the dollar and began selling it. The euro got some support from conversations about the deposit rate decrease and the two-tier commission introduction. The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1050. After breaking 1.1050 the buyers may go to 1.1150. Pound General overview The service sector PMI in the USA and the UK is hard to ignore: PMI differential for February shifted in favor of the United States. On the other hand, the same differential was in favor of the United Kingdom a month earlier. The service sector was not chosen by chance - this sector is the basis of the GDP for both economies. The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4320, the next one is 1.4400 Yen General overview The pair remained in the range despite the increased volatility in the market amid the controversial US labor market report. BOJ’s governor said that the strong yen was not the main reason for the core inflation weakness. The governor added that the negative interest rates were not planned to influence the currency market. The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential target is 113.80. If the price falls it will get to 113.00. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 8, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 09.03.2016 Fundamental analysis Yen showed a growth against the dollar and the euro when the weak Chinese data revived fears about Chinese economy slowdown. This data caused demand stimulation for refuge currencies. The official data showed that the volume of Chinese exports fell on an annual basis in February by 25.4% to 126.1 million against the forecasted decline by 12.5%. The volume of imports fell by 13.8% year over year, slowing from 18.8% in January. On Tuesday, the Japanese data showed that the GDP had fallen by 1.1% in the last quarter of 2015, being revised from 1.4%. The head of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney spoke about the financial costs and benefits of Great Britain membership in the EU. The UK released the 2nd estimate of Eurozone GDP for the 4th quarter. This indicator (seasonally corrected) was 0.3% compared with 0.3% in the previous quarter. Experts had expected a growth rate for the last quarter by 0.3%. We expected the French trade balance with a slight improvement. The euro remained under pressure amid high expectations that the ECB will launch additional monetary policy easing. Technical analysis Euro General overview This week ECB meeting is the key event. The regulator is expected to increase the negative rate and will announce additional measures to stimulate the economy. Industrial production in Germany for January supported the euro. The index came in better than it was expected. The index rose by 3.3% against the expected 0.5% after falling 0.3% in December. This is the most significant growth rate since November, 2014. The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement, the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be continued until the pair is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The euro reached the target of 1.1050. If the pair stays above the level the growth will be continued to 1.1150. Otherwise we will see a decrease to 1.0800. Pound General overview The GBP/USD strengthened amid a weakening of the dollar. We believe that the Bank of England may still raise the rate in Q4. Meanwhile, the US dollar came under pressure as expectations of an early interest rates increase weakened when the market got another portion of the weak statistics from China. The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing. Trading recommendations We recommend to long with the target of 1.4320. The second growth target is the level of 1.4400. Yen General overview Though Japan published a moderate positive macroeconomic data the traders' sentiment was marred by the Chinese statistics. Japan's GDP for the 4th quarter was revised from -0.4% to -0.3% in the final assessment. There was -1.1% versus the previous -1.4% in the annual assessment. Capital expenditures in GDP increased from 1.4% to 1.5%. Consumer spending showed weak results, the index showed a decline by 0.9% against the forecast of -0.8%. The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80. There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We remain bullish on the pair. Our first target is 112.20. Our second target is the level of 111.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 10.03.2016 Fundamental analysis This week is poor with news. There is one important exception: the ECB meeting on Thursday, March 10. The ECB President Draghi has repeatedly made it clear that the ECB is ready to support the economic growth of the Eurozone by their actions. The euro was effected by expectations that the European Central Bank was likely to soften the monetary policy again this week. The ECB is expected to cut the rates further into negative territory on Thursday. Manufacturing Production in the UK increased in January by 0.7%, vs the expectations of 0.2%, as well as the decline in the month before by 0.3%. In annual terms, Manufacturing Production fell by 0.1%, although we expected a decrease by 0.7%. Pound remained under pressure amid uncertainty about the Brexit results. Technical analysis Euro General overview We expect that the ECB to cut the rates further into the negative territory. In addition, investors predict that the Bank will expand its asset purchase program in an effort to overcome consistently low inflation levels in the Euro area. Meanwhile, the German's government bonds showed growth relative to their counterparts (the US and the UK) that will support the demand for the euro. The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement, the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be continued until the pair is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The euro reached the target of 1.1050 and bounced downwards. If the pair break the level again the growth will be continued to 1.1150. Otherwise we will see a decrease to 1.0800. Pound General overview According to the National Statistics Office Industrial Production for February grew for the first time in three months. The index showed growth by 0.3% on a monthly basis after a decline by 1.1% in December. The increase was the first in three months and the most significant in five months. However, economists had expected a growth rate of 0.4%. Meanwhile, Manufacturing Production increased by 0.7%, the forecast was 0.2%. The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing. Trading recommendations We recommend to long with the target of 1.4320. The second growth target is the level of 1.4400. If the pair does not break the resistance of 1.4240 in may bounce downwards to 1.4000. Yen General overview Weak Chinese economic data caused the outflow of capital from the "risky assets", which is a positive factor for the yen. The debt market showed a growing optimism in regard to the Japanese assets: the yield differential of US and Japanese government bonds reduced which may support the demand for the yen. The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80. There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We remain bearish on the pair. Our first target is 112.20. Our second target is the level of 111.40. The pair will strive to reach the level 114.60 if it grows. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 11.03.2016 Fundamental analysis The single European currency was in the spotlight on Thursday. The European Central Bank (ECB) had to step up its measures to support the economy in a low inflation environment. The Bank's decision regarding monetary policy, and Mario Draghi's press conference were the main news of the day. The ECB decided to mitigate the monetary policy, still the regulator made it clear that the new rate cuts probably would not happen. The ECB cut its deposit rate by 10 basis points as it was expected. Germany published Trade Balance which came in at 18,9B compared to 20,3B the previous month. These data was revised upwards to 18,8B. Experts expected a growth rate for the last month to 19,6B. According to the British macroeconomic statistics the Bank of England is not inclined to raise the interest rates. It is worth mentioning that the UK shall hold a referendum on the UK exit from the EU in a few months. It also put pressure on the British pound. The recent growth is considered as a correction from a seven-year low. As for the Japanese currency, it came under pressure amid risks rising when China's Consumer Price Index came in better than expected. Meanwhile, the US has published Initial Jobless Claims. Economists had expected a decline from 277K to 275K. The index showed 259K. Technical analysis Euro General overview The ECB meeting on monetary policy was the main event yesterday. The deflation threat again stands over the Eurozone economy. The euro area showed a CPI decline by 0.2% in annual terms at the end of February. The regulator decreased the rate that may support the pair in a short-term. The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement, the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be continued until the pair is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We expect a bounce downwards to the level 1.1050 after which the pair shall return to the north direction. The growth targets are 1.1260 and 1.1350. Pound General overview Housing Price Balance rose less than expected last month. The index showed 50% compared with 48% in the previous month. These data were revised downward to 49%. Experts had expected a growth rate to 51% for the last month. According to the British Prime Minister David Cameron the country's exit from the European Union would put pressure on the pound. The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing. Trading recommendations The growth was continued. The main short-term target is the level of 1.4400. Shall the price consolidate over that level the growth shall be continued to 1.4560 – 1.4600. Yen General overview Minister of Finance, Taro Aso is afraid that the Japanese economy may slip back into a deflation. Taro Aso said that the sales tax raising was the inevitable path for the Japanese economy. According to him the government is already preparing for this step. Meanwhile, the United States published Initial Jobless Claims where the data came in worse than it was expected. We expected a decline to 275K, still the index showed a decline to 259K. The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60. There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations Though the pair made a strong bearish candle yesterday still its future direction had not been set. If the pair breaks and consolidates below 111.40 the pair may go deep further. As an alternative scenario the pair breaks the level of 114.60 and keeps growing further. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 14.03.2016 Fundamental analysis The ECB announced a mitigation program: the deposit rate was reduced from -0.3% to -0.4%, the base rate of 0.05% was lowered to zero (0.00%), the program redemption of assets increased from 60 billion to 80 billion per month. Now any investment-grade bonds, including corporate ones will be redeemed. The ECB adopted a new four-year program targeted to concessional loans (TLTRO) at zero percent. Consumer prices in Germany remained unchanged in February compared with a year ago rate. The consumer price index remained unchanged after rising by 0.5 percent in January and by 0.3 percent in December. Consumer prices rose by 0.4 percent on a monthly basis. The index partly reversed the 0.8 percent decline in January. It was the highest inflation rate since March 2015. Trade balance in the UK for the last month increased, contrary to out expectations. The index showed -10,29B compared to -10,45B in the previous month. These data were revised downward to -9,92B. Experts expected the index to decline over the past month to -10,30B. The USA published Export Price Index for February. The index was expected to fall by 0.7% m / m. The index showed -6.0%. Technical analysis Euro General overview The ECB delivered its verdict and the monetary authorities' decision surprised the market. The discount rate was reduced to 0%, the QE program was immediately increased to 20 billion. The ECB significantly lowered the inflation forecast for this year from 1% to 0.1%. The GDP estimates for the period of 2016-2018 were also revised. Monetary authorities noted inflationary pressure contraction, however, they rejected the possible threat of deflation. The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement, the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be continued until the pair is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We support the growth idea. The first target is the level of 1.1260. Breaking of 1.1260 shall open the way to 1.1350. We still do not exclude the correction to 1.1050. Pound General overview According to the UK National Statistics Office the country's trade deficit (seasonally corrected) narrowed up to £10.29 billion from £ 10,45 billion in December. The data for the previous month was revised upwards to £9.92 billion. Economists had forecasted that the trade deficit in January amounted £ 10,3 billion. The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is growing. Trading recommendations Our first target – 1.4400 is about to be reached. Shall the pair break it and consolidates above it the northern movement shall be continued to 1.4560. We do not exclude the correction to 1.4240. Yen General overview Reduced Large Manufacturing index had a negative impact on the yen. The index fell to -7.9% from the previous value of 3.8% (in the first quarter). Analysts had expected the index to rise to 4.2%. According to the Ministry of Finance the major Japanese manufacturers' sentiment sharply worsened in January-March when the economy had lost an impulse in the beginning of the year. The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60. There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations While the pair is in the Ichimoku cloud its future direction is not determined. If the pair breaks and consolidates below 111.40 the pair may go deep further. As an alternative scenario the pair breaks the level of 114.60 and keeps growing further. Franc General overview No important macroeconomic statistics was published last Friday. The course of trading was determined by the world's leading stock exchanges. Meanwhile, the US dollar found a support when the US Labor Department published Initial Jobless Claims. The index fell by 18,000 to 259,000 from 277,000 in the previous week. Analysts had expected a decrease of 2,000 to 275,000. The first support resides at 0.9800, the next is at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9880, the next one is at 0.9960. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We recommend to short. The first sell target is the level of 0.9800. Having broken this level the pair shall go deeper to 0.9750. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 15.03.2016 Fundamental analysis The Central Banks will be the focus of our attention this week. The BOJ, the Fed and the Bank of England shall announce their verdict. Even though we do not expect surprises, the banks' statements can still cause volatility. The Fed's possible statements will be the main driver in the beginning of the week. Last week, the ECB President M. Draghi's statement about the absence of need for new measures provoked risk aversion and had pressured the dollar. However, traders managed to focus on new large-scale ECB’s incentives which increased the demand for the dollar at the end of the trading week. The rates will remain at the current or lower levels until the target inflation level is reached, according to Liikanen's words (ECB representative), which added some optimism. That brought the market some calmness, as well as giving the investors the hope that the European regulator had further plans. The pair euro/dollar fell by the end of the trades on Monday. The UK total trade deficit narrowed to £ -3.459 billion, even this favorable data made no impression on the GBP/USD, and did not help the price to grow. Still if the dollar came under a wave of selling, the pound strengthened. However the trades on the pair pound/dollar closeв with a decrease on Monday. The pair USD/JPY continues the trades in a flat. Technical analysis Euro General overview The euro got under pressure amid growing interest to the risky assets. At the same time the USA statistics had no impact on the pair’s dynamics. Import Prices into the United States for February had been showing the 18th month falling in a row. This time the index decreased by 0.3% vs. the forecast of -0.5%. Despite the fact that the index was above expectations and the fact that prices remained in negative territory, did not support the dollar. The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050 and 1.0925. Pound General overview Brexit Risks will keep pressuring the pair. This week we will see whether revenues are growing, as the market expected. The budget is likely to be weak key event and we wait for Bank of England's comments regarding service sector. The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.4240 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.4160. Yen General overview The BoJ’s decision on the interest rate; its monetary policy comments and data on the monetary base annual growth will be the focus of our attention today. We did not expect any change in the rate, the regulator left it on the same level - minus 0.1%. The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential target is 114.60. If the price falls it will get to 113.00. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 15, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 15.03.2016 Fundamental analysis The dollar strengthened against the European currencies, still it was unable to continue the recovery against the yen. The yen had strengthened its position with a hope that the BoJ would remain inactive in its further steps. The US published a block of statistics: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (0,62 against the forecasted -10,00), Retail Sales (-0,1% against the forecasted -0,2%), Producer Price Index (at the forecasted -0,2%), Business Inventories (0,1% against the forecasted -0,1%), House Price Index (58 against the forecasted 59). The Retail Sales report was the focus of our attention. The index will help traders to form expectations about the Fed's decision on Wednesday. The yesterday’s growth of the euro put many traders into a dead end. We do not know whether there was a strong demand for the euro, or an attempt to drive the market at high levels to sell it further at attractive prices. We believe that we will receive an answer today when the FOMC meeting will determine the trend of the pair. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD slightly strengthened. The British currency showed a mixed background. On the one hand, the UK government bonds yield increased in relation to their counterparts (USA and Germany) which increased the attractiveness of the British assets. On the other hand, traders fixated profit and closed "black gold" long positions after the four-week growth which played into the sellers’ hands. The trades on the pair GBP/USD closed with a decrease. The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen after the Bank of Japan's decision to keep the interest rates without changes. The regulator lowered the assessment of the economic situation in the country. The BoJ kept the interest rates on deposits of some commercial banks to -0.1%. The regulator left the amount of asset purchases unchanged at 80 trillion yen a year. The pair USD/JPY fell. Technical analysis Euro General overview The euro did not get a support even when favorable data from the euro zone was published. Industrial Production for January increased by 2.8% after a decrease by 1.3% a month earlier. The index exceeded the forecast of + 0.9% and reached the highest value since 2009. The monthly indicator also showed a significant growth by 2.1% against the expected 1.5% and a fall of 1.0% in December. The coming Fed’s meeting returned interest to the dollar. The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations After the support level of 1.1050 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0925 will be opened. Pound General overview The pound fell when traders began buying the dollar. The main drivers for the pair GBP/USD were the coming Fed’s and the Bank of England’s meetings. Even though we do not expect any action from the regulator the market can become volatile if we get Mark Carney’s negative comments regarding the state of the UK economy. The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4080 and 1.4000 soon. Yen General overview The yen grew when the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged as expected. The Bank estimates the economic impact of its January decision to lower the rate to negative values. This decision did not weaken the yen, some of traders still believe that the Bank of Japan’s mitigation measures lost its effectiveness. Now the Federal Reserve’s meeting is a focus of traders’ attention. The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 113.80 for a steady growth. The sellers need to break below 113.00 for a steady decrease. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 16, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 17.03.2016 Fundamental analysis The main reasons for the risk aversion were: concerns about the American regulator’s aggressive actions, the Bank of Japan’s inactivity at the last its meeting, the decline of oil prices and renewed talk of a British exit from the EU. The market did not expect any change of rates from the Federal Reserve and all investors' attention was focused on the Janet Yellen’s press conference. As we expected Janet Yellen’s comments were the same as before. According to the regulator the monetary authorities will closely monitor incoming macroeconomic data and if the regulator sees inflation and the labor market positive tendency the FED will raise the rates. Yellen did not announce the date of the next rate hike, and noted that the Federal Reserve's achievement should require a lower pace of rate increase. The pair euro/dollar increased. The UK published 2 important releases: The unemployment rate for January (the previous value was -5.1%, the forecast was 5.1%) came in at the forecasted level, and Average Earnings including Bonus for January (the previous value was 1.9%, the forecast was 2.0%) came in at the level 2,1%. The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a growth. We expected the USD/JPY to exit the flat soon, and this exit can be very volatile. Japan does not need a strong yen as Japan’s economy keeps showing slowdown. At the same time, the strong dollar is not welcome factor for the US Federal Reserve, as the strong dollar negatively affects US exporters. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen sharply fell. Technical analysis Euro General overview By the end of the trades the euro sharply strengthened. Earlier the euro remained under pressure before Federal Reserve’s meeting results publication. The regulator postponed the second rate hike. The government bonds yields differential (the United States and Germany) decreased, showing a lack of interest to US assets. The USA retail sales pointed to the “bullish†sentiment growth. The volume of trade decreased by 0.1%, in line with the consensus forecast. The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.1260 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.350 will be opened after this breakthrough. Pound General overview The United Kingdom government bonds yields decreased in relation to their counterparts (the United States and Germany) which reduced the attractiveness of British assets. The pound got under pressure amid a general escape from the risky assets and a new wave of concerns regarding the UK's exit the EU. In addition, the pound was vulnerable amid the divergence between the Fed's monetary policy rates and the Bank of England’s. However by the end of the trades the pair showed a growth. On Thursday the attention of traders will be focused on the British Central Bank meeting. The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting Trading recommendations After the resistance level of 1.4240 breakthrough upward the way to the resistance 1.4320 will be opened. Yen General overview The pair tried to strengthen after the Bank of Japan’s decision to leave the current monetary policy unchanged. However, the pair showed a reversal and the price steadily went down. The US published a consumer price index for February on the level of 0,3% m/m (the previous value was 0,0% m/m, the forecast was 0,2% m/m). The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80. There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 112.20, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 111.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 18.03.2016 Fundamental analysis The dollar strengthened while waiting for the Fed decisions. However, the dollar sharply turned around and had fallen across the market after the meeting. As expected, the Fed left the interest rates unchanged, in the range of 0.25% - 0.50%. Still it has plans to make two rate increases instead of four in the current year. The GDP forecast for 2016 was revised downwards to 2.2% from 2.4% previously. Even if the FOMC raises the interest rates only twice this year, the yield differential of USA government bonds shall expand and investors will have no choice but to buy dollars. Moreover, the "risk appetite" increase will put pressure on the euro as a funding currency. The trades on the pair euro/dollar closed with a growth. The Bank of England meeting results announcement was the key event of Thursday. The UK 10-year government bonds yield declined by 21 basis points since the last meeting of the monetary regulator, indicating a decline in inflation expectations. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged. The pair pound/dollar strengthened on the Thursday trades. The market again began taking into account the different direction of the monetary policies of the BoJ and the Fed. One Central Bank softened its monetary policy against a background of low inflationary expectations. On the contrary, the second one plans to increase the tightening, as the core CPI indicator reached the level of 2.3% in annual terms for the first time since May 2012. The pair dollar/yen fell. Technical analysis Euro General overview Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy in the USA for February rose by 0.3% m / m, exceeding the forecast of + 0.2%. The favorable data increased pressure on the euro, which was hurt amid the risk aversion, and was depressed before the key event: the Fed's decision regarding the monetary policy. After the meeting, the dollar quotes abruptly turned down. The Euro zone published the Consumer Price Index: at the forecasted -0,2%(y/y) and 0,2% (m/m) against the forecasted 0,1% (m/m). The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We expect the 1.1350 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1450. Pound General overview The growth of pessimism regarding the UK economy prespectives contributed to consumer activity reduction: the volume of retail trade grew by 2.28% in 2015, against the growth of 4.31% a year earlier. Given the fact that the Bank of England expects wage growth slowdown in the current year, the negative scenario becomes quite obvious. The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4480, 1.4560 Yen General overview The United States revealed the Initial Jobless Claims for the last week 265K (the previous value was 259K; the forecast was 267K). The USA also released Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey report for the March 12,4 against the forecasted -1,7. The first support resides at 111.40, the next is at 110.60. The first resistance stands at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued. After the support level of 111.40 breakthrough the pair may go to 110.60. Franc General overview The dollar fell sharply against the Swiss franc after the Fed's decision to leave the monetary policy unchanged. The National Bank of Switzerland hold its meeting on Thursday, as we expected the regulator decided not to change its policy. The first support resides at 0.9660, the next is at 0.9580. The first resistance stands at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We recommend going short. When the price consolidates below the level of 0.9660 it may go to the level 0.9560. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 21.03.2016 Fundamental analysis The market is still volatile after the Fed meeting, where the regulator corrected his plans and announced two rates hikes instead of four. Despite the "risk appetite" growth, the euro enjoyed steady demand as a funding currency. The market has completely ignored this factor, which indicated the presence of strong buyers. The dynamics of the debt market showed mixed trends: the 10-year government bonds yield in Germany grew in relation to their counterparts in the UK, but reduced to US Treasuries. The trades on the pair euro/dollar closed with a decrease. The UK did not publish important macroeconomic statistics. We believe that investors will focus their attention on the dynamics of the oil market. Black gold fell by 3%, updating the maximum of the last trading week. Demand for oil impacted the pair GBP/USD in a traditional positive way. The pair pound/dollar increased. The pair USD/JPY set a fresh low for the last 14 months. Such a strengthening of the yen may not please the monetary authorities of Japan, as this strengthening is a threat to exporters. The United States published consumer confidence from the University of Michigan: 91,7 against the forecasted 92,1. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen increased. Technical analysis Euro General overview The ECB President Mario Draghi performed at the end of the week. In particular, he noted that the monetary policy itself could not respond to the structural weaknesses in Europe; the interest rates would remain at the same level or would be lowered for a longer time. Germany published Producer Price Index for February. The index came in at -0.5% m/m and at -2.7% y/y. The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.1350 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1450. Pound General overview The English Central Bank left the rate unchanged. According to the Bank’s minutes the regulator’s tone was not so pessimistic that pushed the quotes upwards. The regulator noted growth of uncertainty due to the threat of Brexit, still he was quite positive regarding the economic situation. The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4640. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We expect the 102.05 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 102.25 Yen General overview The Japanese yen sharply rose against the US dollar. Some analysts believe that the BoJ was behind this intervention to weaken the yen. Only by the end of the week the dollar slightly increased against the yen. The first support resides at 111.40, the next is at 110.60. The first resistance stands at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is corrcting. Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential target are 112.20, 113.00. If the price falls it will get to 111.40 and 110.60. Franc General overview The Swiss National Bank left the monetary policy unchanged last week, the deposit rate was kept at -0.75%. Thomas Jordan, head of the Bank of Switzerland, warned about the negative consequences of a prolonged period of negative interest rates, as it may lead to the escape of the capital. The first support resides at 0.9660, the next is at 0.9580. The first resistance stands at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9660. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9580. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 22.03.2016 Fundamental analysis The dollar tried to recover after aggressive sales, still its upward potential was limited, and the US currency was in its third week of decline against the euro*. The stock markets sentiment supported the dollar. The main drivers for the risky assets strengthening were: oil growth and Prata's comments (ECB representative) regarding possible further monetary policy. The EUR/USD showed a mixed background. On the one hand, the growth of "risk appetite" was a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency. On the other hand, moderately negative macroeconomic data from the United States did not allow the dollar to strengthen. Weak Retail Sales for January and February did not allow us to rely on an increase in sales in the secondary market. In fact the data came in at the level of 5,08M against the forecasted 5,34M. However, the pair euro/dollar decreased. The UK government bonds yield decreased in relation to their counterparts (USA and Germany) which reduced the attractiveness of investments in British assets, and thereby put pressure on the pound. On the other hand, the oil market showed a technical correction as well. Then the oil price showed a growth. The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a decrease. Japan celebrated a public holiday, its banks did not work. The market showed low liquidity. The pair dollar/yen slightly increased. Technical analysis Euro General overview The euro was under pressure amid Praet's statements (ECB Representative). According to Praet the ECB may launch additional incentives and low the rates if necessary. He also made it clear that the Bank had the tools to deal with deflationary pressures. More recently, M. Draghi said to the contrary, assuring markets that there was no need for further policy easing. Against this background, the Praet’s words were quite a surprise for stock markets. The euro reacted to them with sales. The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.1260 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1350 will be opened after this breakthrough. Pound General overview The sterling fell against the dollar. Earlier the pound received some support after the Bank of England quarterly bulletin publication where the regulator paid much attention to China. The Central Bank believes that the UK economy was exposed to only a minor risk by slowing growth in China. The China GDP falling by 1% shall take from the British economy 0.1%. Although the Bank acknowledged that it expected a further China's GDP slowdown. The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The pair can grow above the resistance level of 1.4400. After breaking 1.4400 the buyers may go to 1.4480. Yen General overview The debt market dynamics showed a moderate demand for the Japanese currency: the government bonds yields differential (the United States and Japanese) moderately reduced, which reduced the attractiveness of the US assets. By the end of the trades the pair slightly increased. The first support resides at 111.40, the next is at 110.60. The first resistance stands at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 111.40 and 110.60. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 23.03.2016 Fundamental analysis The dollar stopped its growth against the major currencies on Tuesday, but still received support, as investors remained cautious after a series of terrorist attacks in Brussels that killed 26 people and left wounded more than 100. The tragic events in Brussels had a negative impact on the euro and the British pound. In the absence of important macroeconomic reports the market consolidated in a narrow range. Even the US releases did not revive the market. Existing Home Sales for February came in at a minimum level, having decreased by 7.1%, while analysts had expected a more modest drop of 2.8%. Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February came in at -0.29 vs. the forecast of +0.25 and the previous value of + 0.41. We will pay attention to the IFO Institute publication. This indicator is closely correlated with the dynamics of the German GDP and is always closely monitored by investors. This indicator has been showing a negative trend last three months. The market did not expect the data better than the consensus forecast amid strengthening of the euro. However, the data came in at the level of 106,7 against the forecasted 106,0. The pair euro/dollar fell. The Inflation Report was published in the UK. As we expected the strong labor market figures pointed to the report that was slightly better than the consensus forecast. The unemployment in the UK is at the lowest level since 2005 now, while the average monthly earnings was 0.2% in the last three months which would increase inflationary pressures. The Consumer Price Index came in at the level of 0,3% y/y and 0,2% m/m against the forecasted 0,4% y/y and 0,4% m/m. The pair pound/dollar sharply fell. We do not expect strong growth of quotations right now. The United States disappointed investors with weak macroeconomic statistics: Existing Home Sales for February decreased by 7.1% in February. The home sales fell by 6.7% from January to March, which once again confirmed the hypothesis that the Americans began to save more than to spend. The pair dollar/yen strengthened. Technical analysis Euro General overview After the US publications the dollar slightly weakened. Later, euro weakened after the weak Consumer Confidence index publication in the Euro area for March – the index fell to -9.7 vs. the forecast of -8.15 and at the previous value of -8.80. The Euro zone published Manufacturing PMI 51,4 against the forecasted 51,3 and Services PMI 54,0 against the forecasted 53,3 from Markit. In Germany these data came in at the level of 50,4 against the forecasted 50,8 and 55,5 against the forecasted 55,0. Economic Sentiment in Germany from ZEW came in at 4.3 versus the forecast of 5.0. The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen showы a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations If the price falls it will get to 1.1150 and 1.1050. The upward bounce potential targets are 1.1260, 1.1350. Pound General overview The pound felt the pressure amid the political factor, which added some fears about the Brexit. Ian Duncan Smith, the British Minister for Labour Affairs and Pensions resigned due to disagreements with the Prime Minister over the fiscal policy. In addition to the possible split in the government, the CBI investigation added some negative sentiment. According to the CBI the country's exit from the EU could cost £ 100 billion for the UK economy and nearly 1 million jobs might be lost by 2020. The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4160, 1.4080. Yen General overview Manufacturing PMI was published in the United States at the level of 51,4 against the forecasted 51,8. The United States upset investors with the weak macroeconomic statistics: Existing Home Sales decreased by 7.1% for February. The Existing Home Sales fell by 6.7% from January to March. The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 113.00 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 113.80 will be opened after this breakthrough. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 24.03.2016 Fundamental analysis The tragic events in Brussels impacted the market. This news pressured the euro and stock assets. As a result, the dollar strengthened against most of its rivals, but lost to the commodity currencies. The United States published New Home Sales for February at the level of 512K (the previous value was 502K, the forecast was 510K). Despite the increased geopolitical tensions on Tuesday, the euro as a safe asset failed to get additional dividends. The terrorist attack in Brussels supported the single currency only in the short term. In general traders did not close "risky assets" in panic. However the pair euro/dollar fell on Wednesday. The "black gold" dynamics identified the trend on the British currency. Inflation release for February disappointed the market with its weak data. CPI came out worse than the consensus forecast. Inflation differential of UK and the United States re-expanded in favor of the latter. Consumer prices declined in both countries: the index declined by 0.53% in the UK, and by 0.05% in the United States. The pair pound/dollar continued the decrease. The increased demand for "risky" assets supported the USDJPY "bulls". The fact that investors ignored the negative sentiment pointed to strong buyers presence who came not for one day. The pair USD/JPY showed a growth and rebounded downwards only by the end of the trades. Technical analysis Euro General overview The EUR/USD showed a mixed background. On the one hand, Germany 10 years government bonds yield increased relative to their counterparts (the US and the UK) which increased the attractiveness of European assets. On the other hand, the growth of "risk appetite" is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency. The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 1.1150, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1050. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1260 and 1.1350. Pound General overview The main reasons for the pair’s sales were: renewed fears about the Brexit and the British statistics. Consumer Price Index for February left a negative territory, but did not meet market’s expectations. The index amounted + 0.2% m/m vs. the forecast of + 0.4% m/m. Producer prices showed good results, but the PPI declined by 8.1% from -8.0% versus the expected improvement to -7.4%. The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations After the support level of 1.4080 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4000 will be opened. Yen General overview The Bank of Japan will be replenished with supporters of negative interest rates. Makoto Sakurai, who supports the negative interest rates, was elected as a new member of the Board of Directors on Wednesday. This is likely to change the balance in favor of the Haruhiko Kuroda. Unlike his predecessor, Sakurai sees negative interest rates as a powerful tool to support lending. The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 113.00. After breaking 113.00 the buyers may go to 113.80. If the price falls it will get to 112.20 and 111.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 25.03.2016 Fundamental analysis The dollar stopped its growth. Earlier two factors supported the dollar: returned risk appetite and the new "hawkish" statements of Fed speakers. Traders started to buy the dollar after the Bullard’s performance (Fed representative). Bullard joined the recent comments of his colleagues, having revived traders’ hopes for an early rate hike, which, according to several speakers might occur in April or June. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than it was expected: 265 thousand against the forecasted 268 thousand. Western World will celebrate Good Friday today. The yield differential of US and German government bonds reduced. That fact reduced the attractiveness of US assets and would put pressure on the dollar. Another important positive factor was the closing of risk assets. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar showed a growth after a decrease. The UK retail sales report for February was the main event in the UK yesterday. The index pleased us and showed -0.4% when the forecast was -0.7%. The pair pound/dollar strengthened by the end of the trades. Japan showed a mixed fundamental background yesterday. On the one hand, the Japanese government downgraded its forecasts for economic growth in 2016. The government expects the decline in personal consumption and corporate profits decrease. In this regard, bears are well aware that count on the strengthening of the yen is extremely dangerous. On the other hand, the financial markets showed decline of "risk appetite", which might positively impact the yen as a funding currency. The pair dollar/yen increased after the downward movement. Technical analysis Euro General overview The pair focused its attention on the stock assets dynamics in the absence of economic data. Risk interest played against the single currency, which was also affected by the strengthening of the dollar after the Fed representatives’ "hawkish" statements. The EUR/USD could not strengthen even after a slight deterioration of sentiment on the USA stock market that was caused by oil quotations falling. The dollar kept its stable positions. Only by the end of the trades the piar increased amid the slight dollar’s weakness. The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050 and 1.1150. The potential growth target is the resistance levels of 1.1260. Pound General overview The UK government bonds yields grew in relation to their counterparts (the United States and Germany), which increased the attractiveness of British assets. The increased "risk appetite" could not be ignored as well, putting pressure on the cross-rate EUR/GBP. The risk appetite had a positive impact on the British currency. The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We expect the 1.4240 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4320. Yen General overview Japanese exporters repeatedly stated the need of measures aimed at weakening of the national currency. The US and Japanese government bond yield differential widened to its highest level since 30 th December, 2015, which also played into the hands of the US currency buyers. The price is finding the first support at 112.20, the next one is at 111.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The upward movement potential target is 113.00. If the price falls it will get to 112.20. Franc General overview The dollar strengthened its positions after a positive US housing market data. The promising Federal Reserve representatives’ comments supported the USA currency as well along side with the increased demand for safe assets after the terrorist attacks in Brussels. However, then the dollar’s growth stopped. The first support resides at 0.9750, the next is at 0.9660. The first resistance stands at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 0.9850 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 0.9960 will be opened after this breakthrough. If the price fixates below the support 0.9660, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 0.9580 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 28.03.2016 Fundamental analysis Traders continued buying the dollar, still the dollar strengthening was weak and soon after the dollar retreated. In general, traders activity was gradually reduced amid the long Easter weekend (European and the US markets are closed). The dollar positions were undermined by the ambiguous statistics from the United States, although all published reports were quite positive. The United States published the final GDP for the fourth quarter. The data came in at the level 1,4% against the forecasted 1,0%. German government bonds yields decreased in relation to their counterparts (the US and the UK) which pressured the euro. The pair euro/dollar was trading in a flat. The 10-year government bonds yield in the UK increased in relation to their counterparts (the United States and Germany), which increased the attractiveness of British assets. Moreover the oil market dynamics was hard to ignore. After a correction caused by weak oil stocks in the US, investors once again began to build up long positions that had a positive impact on the British currency. Only by the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar slightly decreased. The published inflation data in Japan showed that the consumer price index over the year in February was not changed. Low energy prices and weak demand limited the growth of the price. These facts kept pressuring the Bank of Japan to increase the size of the stimulus, although the regulator had softened its monetary policy in January. The pair dollar/yen slightly increased. Technical analysis Euro General overview According to Klaas Knot (the president of the Netherlands Bank) the effectiveness of stimulus measures taken by the European Central Bank is approaching its limit. He believes that the ECB monetary policy instruments have been exhausted. The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.1260 for a steady growth. If the price falls it will get to 1.1150 and 1.1050. Pound General overview Retail Sales ex-Fuel report supported the pound. The index rose by 4.1% y/y vs. the forecast of + 3.4% and the January values at + 5.1%. Retail sales also came in better than expected, reaching 0.4% against analysts' forecast of -0.7%. The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.4160 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4160. Yen General overview Yen failed to take an advantage from a flight from risk. The meeting of the BoJ became another negative factor for the yen. The head of the Central Bank Haruhiko Kuroda said that the monetary policy easing would be continued as long as the inflation stabilized at around 2%. The price is finding the first support at 113.00, the next one is at 112.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The potential growth target is the resistance level of 113.80. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 113.00 and 112.20. Franc General overview In addition to the US statistics Bullard's performance (the representative of the Fed) was in the spotlight. According to Bullard the next rate hike may happen soon enough as the March forecasts decline was relatively small. Kaplan (another Fed representative) said that the Fed was aimed to normalize the interest rates "as quickly as possible." The first support resides at 0.9750, the next is at 0.9660. The first resistance stands at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 0.9850 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 0.9960 will be opened after this breakthrough. If the price fixates below the support 0.9750, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 0.9660 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. 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ValdisTF Posted March 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 30.03.2016 Fundamental analysis Janet Yellen's speech was the key event yesterday. According to Yellen she is concerned about the low inflation figures. Meanwhile, the Fed has a number of tools for the economy stimulus, if needed, even if the rate returns back to zero. In addition, she noted that the world changes and risks lead to a slower pace of interest rate increase. The dollar failed to grow against most of its rivals at the beginning of the new trading week. The US currency became a victim of the weak statistics from the US. The market response to the news was extremely intense in a low liquidity due to the ongoing Easter holiday. There was a mixed background concerning the single European currency. On the one hand, the "risk appetite" was preserved, which should put pressure on the euro as a funding currency. On the other hand, after Personal Consumption Expenditures publication the US dollar fell against its major competitors. The US published Consumer Confidence report for March at the level of 96.2 (the previous value was 92.2, the forecast was 93.9). By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar showed a strong growth. The growing oil price pushed the pound upwards. The pair pound/dollar increased by the end of the trades. The yen finished the rally and weakened after the conflicting economic release from Japan. The interest in selling could be associated with the reports about the monetary stimulus measures discussion. The volume of consumer spending in Japan increased by 1.2% in February compared to the last year (it was the first time in six months), which was significantly better than the expected decline of 1.8%. The volume of retail sales grew by only 0.5% with the expected growth of 1.6%. The unemployment rate rose from 3.2% to 3.3%. The pair dollar/yen sharply fell. Technical analysis Euro General overview The pair euro/dollar increased on Tuesday. Earlier the dollar rose against the European currency as investors were preparing for Yellen’s speech. Everybody was guessing whether the Chairmen would give a hint regarding the next rate hike in the United States or not. The Eurozone and the United States monetary polices will continue to diverge as long as investors are confident in the Fed’s future rate increase. Meanwhile the euro will be supported by Mario Draghi’s statements that the rates are at the lowest limit. The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450. There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3670, the next one is 1.1450. Pound General overview The widespread dollar selling supported the pair GBP/USD. We recommend to pay attention to Manufacturing PMI which will be published on Friday. We also wait for Mark Carney’s performance (Bank of England Chairman) on Thursday. The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480. There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We expect the 1.4400 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4480. Yen General overview The yen remained under pressure when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that he intended to implement the planned rise of sales tax in April, if the economy did not suffer from sudden shocks. Many analysts expected that Abe to postpone the planned increase, that is a threat to the fragile recovery of the Japanese economy. Only by the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen fell amid the dollar’s weakness. The price is finding the first support at 112.20, the next one is at 111.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 112.20 and 111.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 30, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 31.03.2016 Fundamental analysis The dollar suffered significant losses. The US currency fell victim to the extremely soft Fed rhetoric. The regulator emphasized the risks: external and internal, and also mentioned the possibility of policy easing if necessary. The regulator’s comments suggest a significant weakening of the dollar, especially in light of the mentioned possible return to the economy stimulation. The ADP for March was published on Wednesday (the previous value was 214K; the forecast was 194K). The data came in at the level of 200K. It is impossible to ignore the growing "appetite for risk": traders are increasing their long positions and high-yield cross-rates that pressured the euro as a funding currency. However the pair euro/dollar strengthened by the end of the trades. The debt market dynamics pointed to the British currency correction. The 10 years UK government bonds yields reduced in relation to their counterparts (the United States and Germany) which reduced the attractiveness of the British assets. The Bank of England performance will be the focus of our attention on Thursday. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar decreased. The yields differential on government bonds of the United States and Japan decreased from November to February inclusively. Retail Trade turnover decreased by 5.4% in Japan. Despite the Japanese and the US retail sales differential indicators at 0% at the end of January, this figure reached the level of 2.2% in favor of the latter in February. The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a slight growth. Technical analysis Euro General overview Janet Yellen’s speech made a huge change in the quotations dynamics – the price flew to the weekly highs in minutes. The positive consumer confidence data in the United States could not support the dollar. Meanwhile, the March index jumped to 96.2 from 92.2 against the forecast of 94.0. Germany published the preliminary March data on the inflation at the level of 0,8% against the forecasted 0,6%. The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1350. After breaking 1.1350 the buyers may go to 1.1450. Pound General overview Janet Yellen’s soft tone (Federal Reserve Chairman) was fairly predictable, the US dollar sharply retreated against the pound. The pair flew upwards to the weekly highs. Even though the BoE considers the Brexit one of the main threats for the country's financial stability this time it did not prevent the pound from growing. The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.4400 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4480. Yen General overview The yen weakened amid the weak retail sales data in Japan. The index fell by 2.3% m/m after a reduction by 0.4% in January. The unemployment rate rose to 3.3% from 3.2%. Akie Abe’s statements, the Prime Minister, were another factor that played against the yen. According to the Prime Minister he does not intend to put off the sales tax increase from 8% to 10%, which is scheduled for next year. However, after Janet Yellen’s speech the quotes dramatically changed their vector and rushed south. Only by the end of the trades the pair slightly increased. The price is finding the first support at 112.20, the next one is at 111.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The potential growth target is the level 113.00. We do not exclude the falls to 112.20. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 31, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 01.04.2016 Fundamental analysis The dollar continued to lose ground, being under heavy pressure after the recent extremely soft Janet Yellen's comments. The dollar was so shocked by the regulator's rhetoric that was not able to show a positive reaction even after a positive labor market report. According to the ADP, the level of employment increased by 200 000 compared to the forecasted 194 000. If not the recent Yellen's comments the market could see a decent dollar growth in response to the positive ADP release, which attracted considerable attention in anticipation of the NFP. The USA published Initial Jobless Claims for March at the level of 276K (the previous value was 265K; the forecast was 269K). After a positive German’s CPI release we expect the Euro area inflation data better than a consensus forecast. The ECB soft monetary policy and the oil price growth pressured the inflation in Europe. The preliminary CPI for March came in at -0.1% m/m, in line with the forecast. The pair EUR/USD strengthened. The United Kingdom published the final GDP for Q4. The report showed 2.1% vs. the forecast of 1.9%. According to Carney, the Bank of England governor, the low growth and low interest rates create problems for banks and corporations. The instrument pound/dollar is consolidating. The published Japanese macroeconomic statistics continued to disappoint the market. The main factors that pressured the yen were: weak employment and retail sales report and the negative industrial production. The industrial production has been decreasing the last three months. The pair dollar/yen is consolidating. Technical analysis Euro General overview Retail sales in Germany declined in February. The index fell by 0.4% m/m, after a falling by 0.1% in January. Economists forecasted a growth of sales by 0.3% compared with January’s release. The number of unemployed in Germany remained unchanged in March, the unemployment rate remained at 6.2%. The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.1450 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1550 will be opened after this breakthrough. Pound General overview The fact that the UK economy grew in the last three months of 2015 more than it was anticipated helped the pound to strengthen against the dollar. Still the country's current account deficit rose to a record high. The current balance of payments for Q4 was 32.7 billion. pounds. However by the end of the trades the pound showed a consolidation. The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4400 and 1.4480. Yen General overview According to Kuroda the market interest rates significantly decreased; the government did not declare victory over a deflation as it cannot be sure that the low prices will not return. The price is finding the first support at 112.20, the next one is at 111.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential target is 113.00. If the price falls it will get to 112.20. Franc General overview The US dollar fell against almost all currencies when Janet Yellen supported a cautious approach to the interest rates raising. Investors considered her remarks as a soft tone, which led to the stock market growth. The price is finding the first support at 0.9580, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target - 0.9500. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9420. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted April 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 3, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 04.04.2016 Fundamental analysis The dollar is still under pressure. In general, traders continued to get rid of the American currency after the recent soft comments by Janet Yellen who did not exclude a return to the economy stimulus. The NFP became one of the main events last week. The indicator showed 215,000, the forecast was 205,000, after a growth by 242,000 in February. The USA also published Unemployment Rate for March that came in at the level of 5.0%. The previous value was 4.9%, m / m, the forecast was 4.9%. German Retail Sales report was a contradictory one. Even though it showed a drop of 0.4% on a monthly basis, it grew on annual basis by 5.4%. Unemployment Rate in Germany in March remained unchanged- 6.2%. Unemployment Change came in at 0. Manufacturing PMI in Germany for March showed 50.7 with a forecast of 50.4. Consumer Price Index in the European Union lost 0.1% in annual terms, which point out the presence of deflation in the European Region. Despite a mixed macroeconomic statistics from the EU, investors interpreted it as a positive sign. The pair euro/dollar closed the trades with a slight growth. The United Kingdom published the Manufacturing PMI for March that came in at the level of 51.0 (the previous value was 50.8, the forecast was 51.3). The pair pound/dollar decreased. Japan published the Tankan Non - Manufacturing index for the 1st quarter: the index fell to 22 from 25. Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for the 1st quarter showed a decrease from 12 to 6. The pair dollar/yen fell by the end of the trades. Technical analysis Euro General overview The Eurozone published Manufacturing Sector PMI for March at the level of 51.6. The forecast was 51.4. The unemployment rate remained at the level of 10.3%. The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1450, the next one is 1.1550. Pound General overview The cross-rate EUR/GBP rose by 7.4% since the beginning of 2016 which increased the competitiveness of British goods in the Europe. The government bonds yields grew in relation to their counterparts (the US and Germany) which also played into the hands of bulls. However by the end of the week the sterling sharply fell against the US dollar. The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential targets are 1.4240 and 1.4320. If the price falls it will get to 1.4160. Yen General overview Japan published several business activity indexes and none of them came in positive and reached the predicted values. However, the investors were not confused and started a wave of the Japanese yen buying. The dollar fell against the yen when the China's manufacturing data increased the market sentiment, while investors awaited the Non-Farm release in the US. The price is finding the first support at 111.40, the next one is at 110.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations After the support level of 111.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 110.60 will be opened. Franc General overview Switzerland published business PMI for March. The report showed a growth from 51.6 to 53.2. The retail sales for February showed -0.4%. The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9420. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9580, the next one is at 0.9660. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target - 0.9500. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9420. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted April 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 05.04.2016 Fundamental analysis According to the US labor market report published last week, the Non-Farm increased by 215 000 in March (the forecast was 205 000). The Average Hourly Earnings grew to 0.3% after falling by 0.1% a month earlier. The overall picture was somewhat blurred by the fact that the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 4.9% to 5.0%. The dollar generally remained under pressure after Yellen’s recent soft comments. Unemployment Rate in the Euro area fell to a new multi-year low in February, but remained high considering the current economic problems in the region. Eurozone unemployment rate was 10.3% – the lowest since August 2011. The pair euro/dollar is trading in a flat. The UK published PMI Construction report which remained at the previous level of 54.2, while the forecast was 54.0. The pair pound/dollar slightly increased. The Japanese Yen moved upwards on Monday. Investors sluggishly reacted to the US labor market reports and Manufacturing PMI. On the other hand the risk appetite increase was a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency. However by the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen decreased. Technical analysis Euro General overview The escape from the risky assets, as well as favorable statistics from the Eurozone supported the euro. The manufacturing PMI in Germany for March exceeded traders’ expectations. The index reached 50.7 and 51.6 against the forecasts of 50.4 and 51.4. On the other hand the 10-year German government bonds yield decreased in relation to their counterparts (the US and the UK) which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets. The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.1450 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1550 will be opened after this breakthrough. Pound General overview The UK GDP in Q4 was revised upward amid the Construction Sector growth. The business activity index came out more than expected – 54.2 against the forecast of 54.0. The growth of the pair was limited by fears regarding Brexit. The market could not ignore the potential demand on the oil market. The oil price has an influence on the pair GBP/USD movement. The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4240 and 1.4160. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4320, 1.4400. Yen General overview The US economy created 632 000 new jobs in the first quarter that is by 10.8% more than the year before. The quarterly growth has been the highest since 2013. On the other hand, the average wage increased by 0.28% m/m which would help the consumer spending to grow and would increase the inflationary pressures. The price is finding the first support at 110.60, the next one is at 109.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 111.40, the next one is at 112.20. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 110.60 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 109.80. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted April 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 06.04.2016 Fundamental analysis The dollar remained under pressure. Yesterday's trading was ambiguous amid a contradictory of stock indexes and oil prices dynamics. USA weak data did not help the dollar as well. New York ISM index fell from the level of 53.6 to 50.4 vs. the forecast of 54.1. Rosengren's speech (the Fed representative) slightly supported the dollar. According to Rosengren the regulator may need more than one rate hike. The United States published Non-Manufacturing PMI for March at the level of 54.5 (the previous value was 53.4, the forecast was 54.0). The German government bonds decreased which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets. The pair euro/dollar was trading in a flat. The United Kingdom published Service PMI for March. The index grew to 53.7 from the previous 52.7, in line with expectations. The UK 10-year government bonds yield grew which supported the British currency. However the pair pound/dollar decreased by the end of the trades. Kuroda (the head of the Bank of Japan) said on Tuesday that the monetary policy alone could not solve all the problems. The dollar/yen continued to decrease. Technical analysis Euro General overview The euro was sold off amid the weak data from the euro zone and the dovish comments by the ECB speaker. Praet (the ECB representative) pointed to the risks of keeping a low inflation for a long time. Praet’s performance also put pressure on the single currency. However the pair was trading in a flat. Non-Manufacturing PMI showed 53.1 vs. the forecast of 54.0. The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1450. After breaking 1.1450 the buyers may go to 1.1550. Pound General overview The pair pound/dollar sharply fell. Earlier the pound strengthened amid a strong construction PMI report. The indicator remained at 54.2 vs. the forecast of 54.0. The EURGBP additionally supported the pound. The recent macroeconomic data helped the pound to ignore a possible threat of losing the current rate after the Brexit. The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations After the support level of 1.4080 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4000 will be opened. Yen General overview The dollar/yen kept falling. Oil prices falling became a catalyst for the decrease. The oil further decrease is high, because the lack of possibility of any production freeze the near future. The investment outflow from Japan may weaken the yen further, still it is not very large as the financial year barely began in the country. The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 109.80, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 109.00. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted April 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 14.04.2016 Fundamental analysis The dollar continued its attempts to recover. The latest Fed hawkish statements supported the dollar. In particular, Jeffrey Lacker (the Fed representative) said that the Fed is still planning four rates hike in 2016. The US currency got an additional support when the Fitch agency confirmed the US rating at AAA. Retail Sales (in fact -0,3%m/m against the forecasted 0,1%m/m and previous -0,1% m/m) and the Producer Price index (in fact -0,1%m/m against the forecasted 0,2%m/m and previous -0,2%m/m) for March became the main events of Wednesday. The inflation data in Germany did not have any impact on the quotations. In March, the Consumer Price index remained at + 0.8% m/m and + 0.3% y/y. The growth of stock indices caused the euro sales. The pair euro/dollar decreased. The UK inflation positive report for March supported the positive trend in the Bonds Market. The yields differential on government bonds (the United States and the United Kingdom) have been reducing for the last three trading days. This news increased the attractiveness of the British assets. However the trades on the pair pound/dollar closed with a decrease. The 10-year government bonds yield (the US and Japanese) expanded which increased the attractiveness of the US assets providing support for the dollar in the pair USD/JPY. This pair showed a growth. Technical analysis Euro General overview The FED will hold its regular meeting on the monetary policy in late April. The more positive releases we get, the more chances we have that the monetary authorities will seriously talk about the rising interest rates in the medium term. On the other hand, the Eurozone revealed Industrial Production report which came out worse than expected: -0.8% m/m vs. the forecast of -0.7% m/m. Patrick Harker (the Philadelphia Fed Governor) did not exclude that the rates would be raised three times this year. The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450. There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We expect the 1.1260 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.1150. Pound General overview The positive UK statistics supported the pound. The inflation unexpectedly accelerated to + 0.4% m/m and + 0.5% y/y vs. the forecast of + 0.3% and + 0.4% respectively. The commodity market dynamics also played into the bulls’ hands: oil and metals were in steady demand. Then the pair GBP/USD decreased amid the dollar’s strengthening. The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4160 and 1.4080. Yen General overview There were two factors that had pressured the yen: the yen could not resist the growth of Nikkei, and secondly, it fell after Japanese Ministry of Finance comments regarding the possible measures launching aimed at limiting the growth of the national currency. The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 109.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 110.60 will be opened after this breakthrough. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted April 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 14, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 15.04.2016 Fundamental analysis The dollar recovered against the most of its opponents. The positive Trade Balance in China heated the interest in the risky assets, mainly in the US currency. The USA published the Inflation data: 0,1%m/m against the forecasted 0,2%m/m. The Initial Jobless Claims showed 253К against the forecast of 270К. The government bonds yields differential (the United States and Germany) expanded in the bonds market. The Eurozone published the inflation data for March: CPI came in at + 1.2% m/m, that coincided with the forecast. The pair euro/dollar was trading in a flat after a decrease. The Bank of England kept its monetary policy unchanged. The UK 10-year government bonds yield decreased which reduced the attractiveness of the British assets. The pair GBP/USD closed the trades with a decrease. The interest in the yen faded amid the demand for the risky assets. A further verbal intervention made by the Bank of Japan, the regulator again hinted at the possible expansion of its economic measures. However by the end of the trades the dollar/yen decreased. Technical analysis Euro General overview The aggressive Fed statements as well as China positive export statistics supported the interest in the US currency. At the same time the euro fell amid the positive USA macroeconomic data and the negative statistics of the Eurozone. The Industrial Production in the region fell by 0.8% in February against a growth by 1.9% in January. The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 1.1260, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1150. Pound General overview The GBPUSD started a correction after three days of an impressive growth. The Bank of England published its minutes and announced the interest rate decision (the rate was left at the same level). Brexit theme due to its uncertainty continued to pressure the currency. The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential target is 1.4080. If the price falls it will get to 1.4240. Yen General overview Haruhiko Kuroda’s comments (the Bank of Japan Governor) restrained the growth of the yen. According to Haruhiko Kuroda the Central Bank is ready to soften the monetary policy if needed, having many stimulus instruments to achieve the 2% inflation target. The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 109.00 and 108.20. Franc General overview The dollar significantly rose against the Swiss franc amid the stock indices strengthening and the increased interest in the risky assets. The weaker-than-expected data on US retail sales was not able to change investors’ sentiment. The price is finding the first support at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9580. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted April 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 18.04.2016 Fundamental analysis The market volatility decreased before the summit in Doha, its results may impact the risk assets. In addition, the US currency got under pressure after the Fed comments and the weak inflation data from the US. According to D. Lockhart (Chief Executive Officer of the Fed of Atlanta) he would not vote for a rate hike in April, supporting a cautious approach to the monetary policy tightening due to low consumer spending. By the end of the trades the market volatility increased. The United States published Industrial Production volume for March. The index came in at the level of -0,6% m/m (the previous value was -0.50% m/m, the forecast was -0.60% m/m) and the Consumer Sentiment index (from the University of Michigan) for April. The index showed 89.7 (the previous value was 91.0, the forecast was 92.3). The Euro area inflation data had no significant effect on the EUR/USD (the index reached the zero value after falling by 0.1% y/y). The Euro zone published Trade Balance for February. The index showed 19.0 billion euro, the previous value was 20.0 billions. The pair euro/dollar showed a growth. Bank of England did not bring any surprises, leaving the rate unchanged at the level of 0,5%. The Bank pointed to the risks related to the Brexit. The pound remained calm to the regulator’s statements. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar sharply increased. The weak US retail sales, PPI and CPI reports disappointed investors. The US and Japanese government bond yields decreased which reduced the attractiveness of the US assets. The pair dollar/yen decreased by the end of the trades. Technical analysis Euro General overview The 10-year government bonds yield in Germany grew, which increased the attractiveness of the European assets. Traders expect any substantial statements from the ECB on Thursday April 21st, which is likely to confirm that the recent announced monetary policy easing measures will be effective during the inflation growth. The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.1260 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1150. Pound General overview The pound fell when the IMF changed the forecast of UK GDP for the current year from 2.2% to 1.9%. The IMF again reminded about the consequences of London Brexit which continue to pressure the market. The strong economic reports could not support the pound: the CPI accelerated to 0.5% - this is the highest level in the past 15 months, the Core Inflation grew from 1.2% to 1.5%. Only by the end of the trades the pound strengthened amid the dollar’s weakness. The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We may expect the growth towards 1.4240. We do not exclude the falls to 1.4160. Yen General overview The weak USA inflation report slightly weakened the JPY/USD. In Japan the Industrial Production decreased by 5.2%. This news supported the dollar. However the pair decreased amid the USA weak statistics. The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80. There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break below 108.20 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 107.40 will be opened after this breakthrough. Franc General overview The USD/CHF remained at the same place. Earlier the dollar stabilized against the majors when D. Lockhart (Chief Executive Officer of the Fed of Atlanta) stated that the GBP data was disappointing. Still they forecast the GBP will show a growth at around 2%. The price is finding the first support at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9580. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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