ValdisTF Posted April 4, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 06.04.2015 Fundamental analysis The US economic employment important data came out worse then forecasted medians will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the global financial markets. The ISM service sector data will be published on Monday, April 6. The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 96.84. The pair EUR/USD increased by amid the USA Non-Farms and the US and Germany bond yields decline. Even the US trade balance positive release could not stop bulls from purchases. During the day the pair GBP/USD was in the flat. The UK PMI construction sector weak data led to the quotations decrease to the level of 1.4775, but then the British pound has showed its growth. The side trend was observed and with the USD/JPY during the day. The US trade balance positive release for February encouraged bulls to long, but without the strong dollar growth. The greenback sharply fell amid the negative US statistics. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The US and the European Banks did not work on Friday. Traders took a wait before the US labor market publication that came out worse then forecasted medians. The ADP and ISM manufacturing sector indicators pointed out to the data output below the traders’ expectations. The manufacturing sector negative trends indicate the US economy slowdown. As for the pair euro/dollar the key level is the downward trend line of 1.0925, which was broken upwards. The trend line breakthrough may lead to the medium correction formation upwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1150. Pound (GBP) General overview Catholic world celebrated Good Friday and in this regard the London banks were closed. The weak macroeconomic statistics pointed out to the US labor market negative data. It should also be noted that in the context of low inflation investors will closely monitor the average earnings data. The trade within this instrument was near the level of 1.4800 the whole week. The short-term level breakthroughs were followed by the returns reversal. The pair increased and tested the resisnace level of 1.4920 at the end of the trades. The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.4920 for a steady growth. The way to the marks of 1.5015, 1.5100 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen (JPY) General overview The US and the Old World Stock exchanges were closed and therefore it is difficult to note increased volatility for the pair before the Non-Farms publications. The positions consolidation within the carry trade is completed. The whole week the Japanese yen was in the flat between the levels of 120.20 and 119.40. The price sharply fell and broke through the support level of 119.20 amid the US negative statistics. The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 118.30, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 117.50. Franc (CHF) General overview The range trade was again observed at the end of the last week within most of the major currency pairs. Perhaps it could be due to the fact that some traders have already gone to the Easter holidays and those who continue the trade have strengthened while waiting the US employment data output. The dollar decreased against the franc and the others majors after the Non-Farms publication. The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9280. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted April 4, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 06.04.2015 Fundamental analysis The US economic employment important data came out worse then forecasted medians will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the global financial markets. The ISM service sector data will be published on Monday, April 6. The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 96.84. The pair EUR/USD increased by amid the USA Non-Farms and the US and Germany bond yields decline. Even the US trade balance positive release could not stop bulls from purchases. During the day the pair GBP/USD was in the flat. The UK PMI construction sector weak data led to the quotations decrease to the level of 1.4775, but then the British pound has showed its growth. The side trend was observed and with the USD/JPY during the day. The US trade balance positive release for February encouraged bulls to long, but without the strong dollar growth. The greenback sharply fell amid the negative US statistics. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The US and the European Banks did not work on Friday. Traders took a wait before the US labor market publication that came out worse then forecasted medians. The ADP and ISM manufacturing sector indicators pointed out to the data output below the traders’ expectations. The manufacturing sector negative trends indicate the US economy slowdown. As for the pair euro/dollar the key level is the downward trend line of 1.0925, which was broken upwards. The trend line breakthrough may lead to the medium correction formation upwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1150. Pound (GBP) General overview Catholic world celebrated Good Friday and in this regard the London banks were closed. The weak macroeconomic statistics pointed out to the US labor market negative data. It should also be noted that in the context of low inflation investors will closely monitor the average earnings data. The trade within this instrument was near the level of 1.4800 the whole week. The short-term level breakthroughs were followed by the returns reversal. The pair increased and tested the resisnace level of 1.4920 at the end of the trades. The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.4920 for a steady growth. The way to the marks of 1.5015, 1.5100 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen (JPY) General overview The US and the Old World Stock exchanges were closed and therefore it is difficult to note increased volatility for the pair before the Non-Farms publications. The positions consolidation within the carry trade is completed. The whole week the Japanese yen was in the flat between the levels of 120.20 and 119.40. The price sharply fell and broke through the support level of 119.20 amid the US negative statistics. The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 118.30, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 117.50. Franc (CHF) General overview The range trade was again observed at the end of the last week within most of the major currency pairs. Perhaps it could be due to the fact that some traders have already gone to the Easter holidays and those who continue the trade have strengthened while waiting the US employment data output. The dollar decreased against the franc and the others majors after the Non-Farms publication. The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9280. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted September 15, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 15, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 16.09.2015 Fundamental analysis There was a calm trading in the foreign exchange market at the beginning of this week. Almost all the major pairs remained within their ranges as traders continue to be nervous anticipating the Fed. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD decreased amid the Brent crude oil decline by 3%. The only notable macroeconomic release was the euro area industrial production report which was significantly higher than expected. The reaction to it was minimal as the market sentiments and the foreign stock exchanges dynamics are playing the single currency driver role. The GBP/USD has sharply fallen. Earlier it symbolically strengthened amid the UK government bond yields increase relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The currency faced with the increased volatility because of the Central Bank race": today the Bank of England like the Fed is inclined to interest rates increase. The pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the capital flight from the "risky assets" into the funding currency. This week the Bank of Japan decided not to change the monetary policy course, saying that the economy and inflation can be recovered with the current incentives. By the end of the trades the pair strengthened. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview There were not great changes on the debt market at the beginning of the week: the Germany and the US government bond yields were in the flat. The Germany business climate data, presented by the Zew Institute, were of particular interest. The index decreased more then the forecasted median: 12,1 vs 18,4. The index was 25,0 in August. Investors received the US retail sales report which is expected to reach the consensus forecast amid the household income growth and the unemployment reduction. However, the growth was 0,2% vs forecasted 0,3%. The price started the weak downward correction. After a short-term consolidation below the resistance level of 1.1325 the pair tested the support level of 1.1260. The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.1325 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1410 will be opened after this breakthrough. Pound (GBP) General overview There was the UK government bond yields increase in the debt market relative to their US and Germany counterparts which will contribute to the British currency demand. The market attention will be focused on the UK inflation report which is expected to reach 0.0% after the previous 0.1%. the data came out at the forecasted median. The pound exchange rate cannot continue its upward movement. After the level of 1.5460 testing the pair pound/dollar sharply fell and broke through the support level of 1.5390. The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5390, 1.5460. Yen (JPY) General overview The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting results was the main event in the morning. We expect the moderate positive comments by Mr. Kuroda. The BoJ kept the monetary politic unchanged. Yesterday we saw the bearish sentiment prevalence in the world leading exchanges which also contributes to demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The price continues its weak downward movement. The pair fell below the support level of 120.40 but by the end of the trades the pair returned at this level. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a Dead Cross. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target 119.20. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 118.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted September 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 17.09.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar rose against most currencies despite the US weak economic reports. Investors took a wait and see attitude ahead of the Federal Reserve System forthcoming meeting results. The EUR/USD pair decreased amid the August US retail sales positive data. In addition, the Zew report put pressure on the euro to which the German economic confidence index weakened sharply in September having reached the 10-month low. The business sector sentiment index fell to 12.1 points in September compared to 25.0 points in August. However the euro slightly increased by the end of the trades. The GBP/USD had decreased amid the US two year Treasury bond yields increase. In addition, the UK inflation report was in the center of attention having shown the August consumer price index growth by 0.2 %, still they were unchanged compared with the previous year. The last change coincided with the experts forecasts. Nevertheless, the pair pound/dollar sharply grew. By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY increased amid the bullish sentiment in the Japanese and the US stock markets. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview There was the US and Germany bond yields moderate growth which is a positive factor for the dollar as it increases investments attractiveness into the US assets. Traders did not hurry to open new deals ahead of the US inflation release. The CPI release was expected with the positive data. The CPI came out at the level of forecasted median 0,1%. The price resumed the upward movement after the support level of 1.1260 testing. The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1410, the next one is 1.1530. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK Core CPI indicator is showing the inflation growth by 0.42% compared with the previous month which indicates the UK labor market positive trend. The Brent crude oil has decreased by 2.5% since the beginning of the week which will provide support to the US currency as this factor is not obvious in the pair GBP/USD quotations. The pound exchange rate began its downward movement, but the support level of 1.5390 was short-term. The pair sharply increased and broke through the levels of 1.5390 and 1.5460. The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.5550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.5670. Yen (JPY) General overview Yesterday the US positive macroeconomic statistics was published. The statistics caused the two year Treasury bond securities growth which reflects the Fed rate expectations. The bond securities growth ahead of the monetary control meeting is a positive factor for the US currency. The profitability increased to the level of 0.8%, having set the fresh four-year high. The price is correcting against the weak downward movement. The pair grew and the resistance level of 120.40 was broken through. The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a Dead Cross. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 121.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted September 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 18.09.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar has fallen to the three weeks minimum against the most major currencies. The US economic data turned out to be weaker than expected. The Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates at the September meeting. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than 11 thousand having fallen to 264 thousand. The EUR/USD has increased amid the oil quotations growth after the US crude oil stockpiles positive publication. Last week stocks fell slightly by more than 2 million barrels which supported the demand for the black gold". The pair GBP/USD had increased by the end of the day. The pound has significantly strengthened against the US dollar, having offset all positions that had been lost the other day. The currency was supported by the UK labor market strong data. As it became known, the UK workers average earnings (excluding bonuses) have significantly increased for three months (to July), having registered the highest rates for more than six years. The pair USD/JPY had grown. The yen has significantly decreased against the US dollar, having reached the minimum at the same time. The news that the Economic Cooperation and Development Organization has revised the world economic growth forecast over the next 2 years put pressure on the yen. However the pair decreased after the Feds meeting results publication. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The US Federal Reserve monetary policy two-day meeting results was the main event of the day. The August Eurozone revised inflation data were published yesterday. The report recorded the index output into the negative territory. This factor is negative for the euro as the deflation threat may again rise rumors about the ECB possible program expansion. After a short-term consolidation the pair euro/dollar sharply grew and tested the resistance level of 1.1410. The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1530, 1.1590. Pound (GBP) General overview The FOMC announced the monetary policy two-day meeting results. The FOMC did not change the rate. Traders expected the retail sales positive data. The forecasts proved to be true in month terms: in fact 0.2% vs. 0.2%. In annual terms the data were in the red zone: 3.7% against the expected 3.8% whereas previously there was 4.1%. The pound exchange rate resumed its upward trend. The pair grew above the resistance level of 1.5550. The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.5670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen (JPY) General overview Traders expected the US Federal Reserve to tighten the monetary policy. The Fed published its decision to keep the rate at the level of 0,25%.The US government bond yields have been greatly increasing for the last two trading days which increases the investments attractiveness into the US assets. Yesterday the Nasdaq index demonstrated the weakest growth from the major stock indices which signals about the investors exit from the risky assets. The price resumed its upward movement. However, the dollar sharply fell by the end of the trades. The pair tested the support level of 120.40. The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is 122.40. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a Golden Cross. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 121.60. After breaking 121.60 the buyers may go to 122.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted September 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 20, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 21.09.2015 Fundamental analysis Last week all traders attention was focused on the FOMC meeting results. Investors wondered whether the Fed would tighten the monetary policy amid the positive macroeconomic releases or postpone the decision, because of the China financial instability. The Fed did not change the monetary policy which triggered the US dollar sales wave. However, by the end of the day the dollar strengthened. The US dollar has sharply fallen against the euro after the US Federal Reserve left the short-term rates unchanged at the same level of 0-0.25% after many weeks of debate. Nevertheless, the Fridays trades closed with the pairs euro/dollar sharp decrease. The pound was traded mixed against the dollar in anticipation of the Fed meeting. The UK sales were in the center of attention. The National Statistics Office report showed the retail sales growth in August, accelerating at the same time rates as compared to the previous month. The pair GBP/USD finished the trades with the decrease after the previous growth. The pair USD/JPY had decreased. On Friday after the Bank of Japan meeting minutes the yen has grown. However, the dollar slightly increased by the end of the day. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The US monetary regulator was afraid of the weak exports and expressed its concern about the economic growth possible restriction amid the UK recent events. The FOMC raised its employment estimates, compared with the June forecast. At the same time the current year inflation forecast was lowered as well as the GDP estimates for 2016 and 2017. The price could not continue the downward movement and has resumed the upward trend. However the resistance level of 1.1410 breakthrough was short-term. The pair returned in the level of 1.1325 area by the end of the trades. The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1410. After breaking 1.1410 the buyers may go to 1.1530. Pound (GBP) General overview The US Federal Reserve decision to refrain from interest rates raising caused the Treasury bond yields decline. The UK and US government bond yields were expected to fall. The demand for the commodity market also contributes to the dollar quotations decline as the raw material assets cost is denominated in the US currency. The pound continues the upward movement and completed the first target of 1.5550. The growth to the level of 1.5670 led to the price rebound downwards in the support level of 1.5550 area. The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3670. the next one is the level of 1.5670. Yen (JPY) General overview The Fed's decision to keep the monetary policy unchanged put pressure on the dollar. The Bank of Japan monetary policy last meeting minutes were published. We expected the demand for the world leading stock markets corporate bonds which is a negative factor for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The price started its strong corrective movement. After the support level of 119.20 testing the pair rebounded upwards. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is 121.60. There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations After the support level of 119.20 breakthrough down the way to the support 118.40 will be opened. Franc (CHF) General overview The SNB left interest rates unchanged at the level of 0.75% in line with the experts' forecasts. The central bank also kept the target range for three-month the Libor rate in the range from -1.25% to -0.25%. The Swiss franc rate was still high despite some decrease. Also it was said that the negative interest rates and the SNB willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market reduced some pressure on the franc. The pair dollar/franc tried to continue the downward movement. The pair tested the support level of 0.9540 and rebounded upwards. The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9850. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted September 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 29.09.2015 Fundamental analysis On Friday the US dollar continued its winning streak and ended the week with the quotations steady growth against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day around 96.36. However, the new week began with the dollar decline against other currencies. According to the data, published at the end of the last week, the 2nd quarter US GDP final assessment was better than expected: 3.9% vs. 3.7%. As a result, the annual growth rate is 2.25%. The final assessment was better than the first two estimates and better than expected. Now investors are waiting for the US new statistics, including the labor market state in order to confirm their rate expectations. The dollar also found some support after the Federal Reserve governor Janet Yellen said the last week that the US central bank kept plans to raise interest rates this year. The pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the German government bond yields decline relative to the US and the UK counterparts. However, the week began with the fact that the euro has taken a confident northern movement. The pair GBP/USD finished the trades with the price decline amid the 3rd quarter US GDP positive data. If in the first half of the day the bulls were in trend in the second half the bears took over the initiative. By the end of the last week, the USD/JPY pair had increased amid the US and Japan government bond yields increase. Nevertheless the pair closed the trades with decline on Monday. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The tech sector became the growth leader in the leading European stock markets which indicates the "risk appetite" growth among investors. At such times, we can see the carry trade transactions increase at the expense of funding currencies which include the euro. In addition, the German government bond yields are decreasing relative to the US and the UK counterparts that also reduce investments attractiveness into the European assets. The pair euro/dollar took a northern direction. After testing the support level of 1.1150, bulls sent the price up. However, they failed to break the resistance of 1.1260, and the price was fixed under this mark. The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a Dead Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1150 soon. After that mark the pair may go to 1.1050. Pound (GBP) General overview Last week the Bank of England Financial Policy Committee pointed out to the UK financial stability risks increase. The Brent crude oil dynamics also carries risks for the pound. However, before its decline, the pair GBP/USD is able to demonstrate the short-term price growth amid the UK government bond yields relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The pound/dollar weak southern movement continues. Pound tried to escape upwards, but the bears managed to break through the support level of 1.5200 and fix the price at this level. The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target - 1.5100. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.4975. Yen (JPY) General overview The third quarter US GDP final data strengthened expectations that the US Federal Reserve would increase interest rates this year and, on the contrary, the Bank of Japan will increase the Bank of Japan QE program. The debt market dynamics also confirms optimism about the dollar: the US and Japan government bond yields are expanding which increases investments attractiveness into the US assets. The pair dollar/yen continues its southern movement. Overcoming support 120.40, the price was fixed below it. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a Golden Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 120.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 121.60. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 02.10.2015 Fundamental analysis The US currency has strengthened, but against some of its competitors, it weakened. The dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 96.48. According to the ADP, the US main event is the September number of jobs in the private sector. The index caused optimism in the stock exchanges and its increase amounted 200 thousand against the expected 192 thousand. The US manufacturing sector is showing rather bad results - the Chicago manufacturing sector business activity index decreased from 54.4 to 48.7 in September while it was expected 53.2. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than 10 thousand having grown to 277 thousand. The pair EUR/USD had decreased after the September Eurozone CPI negative release. The number of unemployed in Germany increased by two thousand and the euro area overall unemployment rate grew from 10.9% to 11.0%. The September consumer price index preliminary assessment fell by 0.1% y/y vs. 0.0%, the core CPI remained at the previous level of 0.9% y/y. During the day, the pair showed a decrease, with a price slight correction upward by the end of trading. The pair GBP/USD finished the trading day with the price decrease amid the US employment positive publication. In addition, the British GDP has remained at the level of 0.7% the 2nd quarter, still the annual rate was revised downwards from 2.6% to 2.4%. By the end of trading, the pound managed to slightly increase against the dollar. The world demand for the "risky assets" has supported the pair USD/JPY. By the end of the day, the instrument decreased. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview During the past month to 52.3 from 52.5 previously fixed, the business activity index fell in the manufacturing sector in Germany. Economists expected the index over the past month would remain unchanged at 52.5. Moreover, the German paper show a decrease in the bond market, the yield to US and British colleagues. Against this background, the attractiveness of investments in the assets of the EU reduced. On Thursday, the pair at reducing tested support level of 1.1150. However, in the second half of the day the price took a northern direction. The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a Dead Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target 1.1050. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.0925. Pound (GBP) General overview The black gold pressures the pound. Previously, the US Energy Department reported about the crude oil and gasoline increase, which is a negative factor for the Brent quotations. We remind, that oil inventories showed an increase of 3.955 million. barrels with forecast of 0.102 million. The industrial business activity index amounted to 51.5 points in September while everybody expected an increase to 51.3 points; the previous value was revised from 51.5 points to 51.6 The pair is trading in a flat between the levels of 1.5200 and 1.5100. The instrument closed with a decrease by the end of the trading day. The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The sellers need to break below 1.5100 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.4975 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen (JPY) General overview The yen remained under pressure after the Japanese Tankan mixed corporate sentiment data. The Japan and the US government bond yields are increasing which is a bullish factor for the dollar. Meanwhile, we expected the ISM manufacturing sector positive data: 50.6 against the previous 51.1. In addition, the number of initial jobless claims totaled 277K against the previous 267K, still the market expected 270K. The pair shows a trade in a flat between the levels of 120.40 and 119.20. by the end of the day the pair slightly decreased. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 119.20 and 118.40 Franc (CHF) General overview The Switzerland August retail sales fell by 0.3% against the growth forecast by 0.3% after the previous 0.1. Then, the August retail sales rose up by 0.5% m / m. The Switzerland business activity index fell to 49.5 in September from the previous 52.2. The US number of initial jobless claims was expected 270K vs. 267K while it amounted 277K. The price broke through the resistance level of 0.9750 and the price steadily fixed above this mark. The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9650. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 0.9850 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 0.9960. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 5, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 06.10.2015 Fundamental analysis The Friday US Labor data came out worse than traders expected. The September Nonfarm payrolls amounted 142 thousand while the August indicator was revised into the negative side. The average hourly earnings remained unchanged at the level of 25.09 dollars an hour. The market reacted with the dollar decrease to the news that the rate hike is postponed. Investors have reduced the October increase expectations by 6% and the probability of the December increase to 28%. Indeed, now the market is expecting the first quarter rate increase next year. As a result, the pair EUR/USD finished the trades at the mark of 1.1180. At the beginning of the week investors study the August Eurozone retail sales, the forecast was -0.1%. The pair GBP/USD finished the trades at the mark of 1. 5150. Investors' attention is directed to the September service sector business activity index and its forecast was 6.4 against the August 55.6. The pair USD/JPY closed the trades at the mark of 120.50. The Markit service sector business activity index was expected with a growth from 5.6 to 55.7 in the September final assessment, the non-manufacturing sector business activity index (ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI) was expected with decrease from 59.0 to 58.0. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The moderately positive background was formed for the single European currency. The Germany and the US government bond yields are decreasing which reduces the investments attractiveness into the US assets. In addition, we expected the ISM service sector business climate negative release amid the private sector employment weak data which also weakens the dollar. The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325. There is a confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. The price will be falling if it remains under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We believe the price is returned to the southern movement. Shall the price go below the support 1.1150 it will decrease to the level 1.1050. Pound (GBP) General overview The credit markets trend is in favor of the British currency: the UK and the US negative 10-year government bond yields fell by 8.6 bp at the end of the last week. The oil market bullish sentiments will put pressure on the dollar as the energy cost is denominated in the US currency. The pound continues its downward movement having fallen yesterday by the trades end. The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The sellers need to break below 1.5100 for a steady decrease. Shall the pair break the level of 1.5100 the way to the mark 1.4975 will be opened. Yen (JPY) General overview Despite the US labor market negative data the Japanese yen was unable to consolidate below the 119 figure - the pair has strong buyers who push the quotations upwards. However, the weak employment figures led to the Treasury short term bond yields significant increase which signals that the Fed will not raise rates until the end of the year. The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40. There is a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward one. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The direction has been changed. The pair returned to a growth. Our first target is 121.60. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 8, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 09.10.2015 Fundamental analysis The US currency tried to strengthen against its major competitors the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 95.65. Investors' attention is directed to the US Labor Ministry jobless claims weekly report. The forecast was 274K vs. 277K the previous week. The index showed 263K. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the Germany and the US government bond yields increase. The Germany industrial production negative indicators were published and left the euro no chance for the expected correction continuation. The August German Industrial Production fell by 1.2% against the growth expectations by 0.3%. During the day, the pair showed mixed trading, maintaining the upward movement. The pair GBP/USD had increased amid the August UK industrial production strong data. The UK macroeconomic indicators were even better than expected and the British pound continued to rise. Industrial production showed growth by 1.0% vs. 0.3%. Investors are studying the Bank of England last meeting minutes. Mr. Carney said that inflation remains below 1% until the spring of 2016. The pound/dollar continues to show north course. The pair USD/JPY closed the trading day with the quotations decrease amid the demand increase for the "risky assets". The foreign markets power and the Bank of England neutral rhetoric are not sufficient for the USD/JPY growth when the Japanese economic indicators decline. The own negative Japanese data turned out to be stronger. The pair is in flat, against a background of weak southern movement. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The German 10-year government bond yields are decreasing relative to their US and the UK counterparts, which reduce the investments attractiveness into the European assets. In addition, the demand for higher-yielding stocks and cross-rates puts pressure on the euro as a funding currency. The United States presented a number of initial jobless claims for August. With forecast 274K, it turned out of 263K. The Fed also published its meeting minutes. It says the majority considers that the conditions for the rate increase will be achieved before the end of the year The price is trying to continue its upward movement. Despite different directions of trading, the pair managed to break the resistance level of 1.1260 and continues to grow. The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410. The pair left the Cloud. We have a confirmed and strong buy signal The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The EUR/USD will grow until it is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is in a growing. Trading recommendations The pair is growing now. The first target is the level of 1.1325. The next target is the level of 1.1410. Pound (GBP) General overview The British currency can use the demand amid the UK government bond yields relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The whole week we see the US and the UK 10-year government bond yields in the debt market which increases the investments attractiveness into the British assets. Investors' attention is directed to the Fed meeting minutes and the US labor market publication. The pound exchange rate continued its upward movement. In the first half of the day, bears dragged the pair under the level of 1.5300, but later bulls managed to return the price above this mark. The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460. We have a weak buy signal as the price has just left the Cloud. If it remains above the Cloud the signal will get stronger. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the pair is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing. Trading recommendations The GBP/USD remains above 1.5200 that increases its growth potential. The target is the level 1.5390. Shall the pair return to a decrease it will go to the level of 1.5200. Yen (JPY) General overview Now the credit markets dynamics is on the "bulls side": the US and Japan government bond yields are declining which increases the investments attractiveness into the US assets. Demand for the risky assets is increasing. The high-yield currency cross rates were in demand among investors which indicates the carry trade operations increase and will put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The price is still correcting. The price continues corrective movement trading in the corridor between the levels of 120.40 and 119.20 against the background of weak southern movement. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the pair keeps growing the level of 121.60 will be the first target. Shall the USD/JPY decrease it will go to 119.20. Franc (CHF) General overview The Economic Affairs State Secretariat data (SECO) showed that the Switzerland unemployment rate rose in September in line with the economists' expectations. The seasonally corrected unemployment rate rose up to 3.4 % from 3.3 % in August. The uncorrected unemployment rate remained unchanged at the level of 3.2 %. Last year the indicator was 3 % in August. Meanwhile, the US jobless claims report was published. With forecast 274K, it turned out of 263K. The price broke through the support level of 0.9750 and the price steadily fixed below this mark, already have tested the level of 0.9650. The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 0.9540 first. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. 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ValdisTF Posted October 10, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 12.10.2015 Fundamental analysis Last week the US dollar strengthened its position against its major counterparts amid the US 10-year government bond yields strong growth against its Germany, UK and Japan counterparts. Still then investors have begun to actively sell the US currency. According to the last FOMC meeting minutes the monetary authorities are afraid to raise the interest rates because of the US low inflation and the global economy slowdown. The labor market significant increase was noted not for the first time. As a result, the EUR/USD trades ended the week at the mark of 1.1358. The reports that indicate that the global economy is experiencing difficulties put again pressure on the euro. The Germany trade balance results have not met our forecasts - the surplus was much worse, showing reduction up to 15.3 billion euros against the July 25.4 billion euros when it was expected to see 19.0 billion euros. The GBP/USD ended its trades at the mark of 1.5308. The Bank of England meeting results have put strong pressure on the "cable". There was not anything surprising in the BoE decision - the interest rate remained at the level of 0.5%, still the Central Bank purchases fund amounted to 375 billion pounds. The pair USD/JPY finished at the mark of 120.25. The price remained in the narrow side range and the day result was marked by a very slight advantage in favor of the yen. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The US and the Germany government bond yields grew at the end of the last week which increased the investments attractiveness into the US assets and contributed to the dollar demand. The bullish sentiment prevailed in the European and North American stock markets which is also a positive factor for the US dollar. International investors are still inclined to the "risk appetite" which puts pressure on the euro as a funding currency. The price continued its upward movement. The price is finding the first support at 1.1325, the next one is 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410. We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The EUR/USD will grow until it is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The pair is growing, the target is the level of 1.1410 now. Pound (GBP) General overview At the moment the British currency is left without drivers for the quotations growth. Perhaps the inflation will remain below 1% until the spring of 2016. The inflation slowdown causes traditionally pressure on the Forex market national currency. In addition, the UK 10-year government bond yields showed a decrease in relation to their US and Germany counterparts after the MPC minutes publication. The pound exchange rate continues its upward movement and almost reached the last resistance level. The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The first resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460. We have a confirmed and strong buy though the price has just left the Cloud. If it remains above the Cloud the signal will get stronger. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the pair is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing. Trading recommendations The GBP/USD remains above 1.5200 that increases its growth potential. If the pair holds there it may grow to the level 1.5390. Shall the pair return to a decrease it will go to the level of 1.5200. Yen (JPY) General overview Macroeconomic statistics caused the US and the Japan government bond yields increase which shall support the demand for the US currency. Moderate demand for the "risky assets" will contribute to the carry trade operations increase through the Japanese yen as a funding currency which will also have a positive impact on the pair USD/JPY. The pair remains in the corridor between the levels of 120.40 and 119.20. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud still it does not mean that a decrease is over. The USD/JPY is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is growing. Trading recommendations We expect the level of 119.20 will be tested soon. Still the level of 121.60 remains the first target for a growth. Franc (CHF) General overview The CFTC published the weekly report showing the number of net speculative positions within the franc: -2.7K earlier, this week index was 4K. Investors focused on the US three-day summit results which began last week Friday. The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 0.9540 first. The second sell target is the level of 0.9370. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. 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ValdisTF Posted October 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 13.10.2015 Fundamental analysis At the beginning of the week the macroeconomic background is once again in the dollar favor. As for the investors escape into the euro while the Chinese data is deteriorating, it may happen only when we have shock events or when the investors escape from the carry trade market. The pair euro/dollar has increased. The French August industrial production showed growth by 1.6% against the growth expectations by 0.6%. Investors, however, ignored the French budget deficit decline to -87.7 billion euros against -79.8 billion in July and the Italian industrial production decline by 0.5% - while it was expected 0.3%. The pair GBP/USD remained in a flat. The UK August trade deficit was 11.1 billion pounds against -10.0 billion and the previous indicator declined to -11.1 billion from -12.2 billion pounds. The UK construction sector fell by 4.3% against the growth expectations by 1.0%. The dollar/yen was in a flat the whole Monday. The September import price index correction (-0.1% vs. -0.5%) and the wholesale inventories increase to the predicted level of 0.1% in August slightly supported the dollar. The week started Japanese, the USA and Canadian holidays. The political component of the day was the Fed representatives Charles Evans and Lael Brainard's speeches. Evans supports the interest rate hike this year, Brainard is not inclined to raise the rates this year. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The Monday economic calendar was empty, the US and Canada have holidays, the trading volumes are very small. The political component of the day was the Federal Reserve members speeches. According to the Bank of France, the French August current account balance surplus was 200 million euros against the deficit of 400 million euros in July. The August services trade surplus was 900 million euros against the deficit of 100 million euros in July. The US August trade deficit amounted to 1.1 million euros against 900 million euros in July. The price is finding the first support at 1.1325, the next one is 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410. We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The EUR/USD will grow until it is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The pair is growing, the target is the level of 1.1410 now. A short-term bounce down to the level of 1.1325 is possible. Pound (GBP) General overview The market intensified rumors about the ECB readiness to postpone and to extend the QE program. According to Mario Draghi, the quantitative easing program works better than expected, still the inflation will likely fail to achieve the target with certain periods set by the indicator. The main reason is the "bearish" oil trend. The UK CB leading indicators remained unchanged: -0.3% m/m. Investors drew their attention to the UK employment report. The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The first resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460. We have a confirmed and strong buy signal, the price is above the Cloud. If the pair remains above the Cloud the signal will get stronger. The GBP/USD is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The pair will grow until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing. Trading recommendations Our first target is 1.5390. Shall the pair return to a decrease it will go to the level of 1.5300. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japanese yen was stable on Monday amid the limited trading volumes due to the US and the Japanese holidays. This week investors will focus their attention on the US Wednesday retail sales and the Thursday consumer prices are in search of fresh indications for the consumer spending strength. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan shall publish the Monetary Policy Committee last meeting minutes. The pair remains in the corridor between the levels of 120.40 and 119.20. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud still it does not mean that a decrease is over. The USD/JPY is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The pair is in a flat. Trading recommendations The pair is in a flat. The direction is uncertain. The first growth target is the level of 120.40. The decrease one is 119.20. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 15.10.2015 Fundamental analysis The pair EUR/USD finished the trades with the quotations growth amid the Germany and the US government bond yields decline. Earlier the euro decreased after the weak German business confidence index the October indicator fell from 12.1 to 1.9 against expectations of 6.8. The European ZEW index fell to the forecasted value of 30.1 from 3.3 in September. Against this background, the pair continued upward movement. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD fell after the UK September disappointing inflation data. A small storm rolled across the UK market. The September consumer price index (CPI) fell down to deflation at an annual rate: -0.1% y/y. This is the first inflation negative annual rate for the last 55 years. The base Index (Core CPI) remained at the level of 1.0% vs. 1.1%. Retail prices declined from 1.1% y/y to 0.8% y/y (forecast 1.0% y/y). Even house prices have not changed: 5.2% y/y against expectations of 5.5% y/y. At the last trading day, the pair sharply gained weight. The pair USD/JPY finished the trades with the quotations decline amid the "bearish" sentiment in the global equity markets. The retail sales in United States, which was 0.1%, which is below the expected 0.2%, also contributed to the decrease of the pair. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The ZEW institute weak release confirms investors' concerns about the leading euro-zone economy deflationary scenarios development. Meanwhile, the bond market is supporting the euro bulls: the German 10-year government bond yields are increasing relative to their US and the UK counterparts which increase the investments attractiveness into the European assets. Bulls managed to break through the resistance level of 1.1410, but it is unknown if they are able to retain and develop this success. The first support is at the level of 1.1410, the second one is at the level of 1.1325. The resistance is at the level of 1.1530, the next one is at the level of 1.1590. The price resumed its upward movement. We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The pair keeps growing until it is above the Cloud The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The pair left the flat range and having passed the first target the level of 1.1410 rushed to the next stop 1.1530. Pound (GBP) General overview The pound continues to show the downward trend. The inflation weak data disappointed investors and against this background, the pound is showing its weakness in relation to its main competitors. The currency market has been still expecting for the recent weeks that the Bank of England will raise the interest rates in the first half of 2016. Now, these expectations were completely leveled and investors begin to revise their forecasts. The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pound rate continued its upward correctional movement. There is a confirmed and strong buy signal, the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The pair will keep its growth until it is above the Cloud. The MACD left a positive territory. The histogram returned to a growth. Trading recommendations The price keeps growing. We expect a short term rebound downwards, to the level 1.5460 where we believe the pair will return to the growth. It is good opportunity to long from this point. Our growth targets are the levels of 1.5550 and 1.5670. Yen (JPY) General overview The debt market dynamics confirms the demand for the US assets. The Japanese and the US government bond yields are increasing which is a positive factor for the dollar. The US currency is supported by the commodity market sales. The oil and industrial metals finished the day in the negative area that traditionally has a positive impact on the dollar quotations. The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is 117.80. The resistance is at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40. There is a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud now and the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The USD/JPY will keep falling until it is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The histogram is decreasing. Trading recommendations The pair seems to set its direction. If the course remains unchanged we will see the pair at the level of 118.40. Otherwise it will return above the 120.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 15, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 15, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 16.10.2015 Fundamental analysis The dollar came under a sales wave in relation to its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 94.19. After the Chinese inflation and the subsequent US retail sales weak data investors strengthened the opinion that even the December Fed rate hike would not take place. In addition, the US Labor Department published the initial jobless claims number which turned out 255K. It is better than forecasted 270K. The pair EUR/USD finished the trades with a growth amid the US PPI September negative release. The Eurozone industrial production fell by 0.5% vs. -0.4% in August, but the overall dollar decline pulled the euro upwards. However, the pair showed a decrease last trading day. By the end of the day, the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the UK August labor market positive data. The August unemployment rate fell from 5.5% to 5.4%, the last three months average salary has increased not by forecasted 3.1%, but still by good value of 3.0%. In the morning, there was a decrease, but in the afternoon, the situation has been leveled off. The pair USD/JPY finished the trades with the decline amid the "investors risk appetite reduction." At the same time the yen does not have any internal support factors. The September engineering equipment orders volume fell to the preliminary estimates from 16.5% y/y to 19.1% y/y, the September producer price index fell to -3.6% y/y to -3.9% y/y while the new Japanese government once again confirmed that the QE increase would not happen. The US manufacturing index which showed a decrease-4.5 instead of forecast -1.0, also affected the pair. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview Investors closed the carry trade deals which support the demand for the euro as a funding currency. The twoyear US Treasury bond yields, which reflect the investors expectations about the Fed interest rate, are declining which deprives the dollar support. Moreover, the US and the Germany government bond yields greatly reduced on Wednesday which will contribute to the demand for the euro. Now the commodity market dynamics is not on the bulls side: the oil and industrial metals quotations reduction has been stopped which is a positive factor for the US currency competitors. The pair showed multidirectional trades yesterday. The pair was falling the whole day and stopped at the American session. The pair lost 120 points and stopped at 1.3800. The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410, the next one is at the level of 1.1530. The price resumed its upward movement. We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows horizontal movement, and the Kijun-sen is directed upwards. The pair keeps growing until it is above the Cloud The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is increasing. Trading recommendations The pair is still inclined to grow. Shall the pair keep growing it will reach the level of 1.1530 soon. The decrease target is at the level of 1.1325. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK National Statistics Office pointed out to the unemployment reduction by 0.1% to the level of 5.4% and the average earnings increase based on premiums by 0.1%. On the other hand, the US reported about the PPI decline by 1.1% compared to the same period of 2014, which indicates the consumer prices decline. As a result, the US and the UK 10- year government bond yields began to back down. The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pound exchange rate resumed its upward trend. There is a confirmed and strong buy signal, the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is directed upwards and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The pair will keep its growth until it stays above the Cloud. The MACD is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing. Trading recommendations The pair stooped its growth. If the pair breaks the level 1.5500 the growth will be continued. Otherwise it can return to 1.5390. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japanese currency has been in demand for the last three trading days in a row amid the investors escape from the "risky assets". The global stock markets positions closure contributes to the yen quotations growth as a funding currency. The US inflation release shall support the demand for the "risky assets". The number of the US jobless claims was expected 270K against the previous 263. The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is 117.80. The resistance is at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40. The price completed the third support level and was not able to breakthrough it. There is a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud now and the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The USD/JPY will keep falling until it is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The histogram is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the course remains unchanged we will see the pair at the level of 118.40. Otherwise it will return above the 120.40. Franc (CHF) General overview The US employment weak economic data have reduced the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve soon will raise the interest rates that fact led to the stocks increase. It also became known that the retail sales fell by 1.1% in annual terms after the August decline by 0.8%. The pair continued its downward movement and broke through the support level of 0.9540 and firmly fixed below this mark, we do not see any correction signs. The price is finding the first support at 0.9420, the next one is 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9650. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The first target is the level of 0.9420, the second one is 0.9370. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 20.10.2015 Fundamental analysis The China GDP better-than-expected data decreased fears related to the fact that the Chinese economy may experience a hard decrease and pull the world economy down. Investors paid more attention to the GDP macroeconomic indicator and the European stock market trading wave started on the positive note as the US dollar is supported against the euro. The market is awaiting whether the ECB begins to extend the existing measures in September to support the economy. The bears dominated at the market yesterday, the pair EUR/USD was decreasing the whole day. The British economy positive development still allows "bulls" to keep the currency in the area of the earlier reached highs. The Chinese positive news supports the US bond yields, which markedly fell last month amid the sharp expectations reduction, concerning the US rate hike. However, the yen is trading without any changes. The USD/JPY is in a flat now. Relative to the US dollar, the Australian dollar is growing due to the quotations growth after the Chinese Statistics publication. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro positions look vulnerable amid the ECB upcoming meeting. The Governing Council member Benoit Ker said that the regulator was not going to solve any other issue besides the mentioned earlier. Meanwhile expectations regarding the quantitative easing program correction are increasing. The last Bloomberg survey showed that the number of respondents who expect the stimulating measures package to be to expanded, increased from 68% to 81%. The pair is showing a downward correction. The decrease was stopped at the level of 1.1325. The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410, the next one is at the level of 1.1530. We have a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. We have a Dead Cross signal. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing. Trading recommendations The correction is in progress. If the pair keeps falling we expect the level of 1.1260 to be reach soon. We believe the pair is under pressure till the ECB meeting. Pound (GBP) General overview The pound gained strong impulse last week after the UK labor market report which showed that the unemployment rate had fallen to the seven years minimum. The technical analysis gives a neutral forecast, still the bullish scenario is the preferred one. The UK Thursday retail sales report is in focus now. The report is expected to show a growth since August. The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pair is in a flat right now between 1.5420- 1.5520. There is a confirmed and strong buy signal; the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair will keep its growth until it stays above the Cloud. The MACD is in a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing. Trading recommendations The pair stopped its growth. If the pair breaks the level 1.5460 and consolidates above it the growth will be continued. Otherwise, it can return below the level of 1.5390. Yen (JPY) General overview The US dollar is declining against the yen after a consolidation at the end of the previous two sessions. The dollar is waiting for the further consolidation period and can begin to rebuild its positions. The pair is still in the range and its movements to the lower bound are used as an opportunity to enter the market. However, bulls still face the lack of strong growth drivers: the Japanese investors activity continued to support the pair, but the yield spreads dynamics does not give cause for optimism. The USD/JPY started an upward corrective movement. The price managed to break the resistance level of 119.20. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and the Chinkou Span now. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give a Golden Cross signal. The USD/JPY will keep falling until it is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The histogram is growing. Trading recommendations If the pair grows it will grow to the level of 120.40. If it falls it will decrease to 119.20. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 21.10.2015 Fundamental analysis The euro is still under pressure in the run-up to the ECB meeting. After the ECB meeting, the investors will wait for the Fed meeting results which will be held on October 27-28. The Fed officials give contradictory comments: some of them speak about the need to raise the interest rates this year, some of them want to change the rate when the USA economy is more stable and strong. At the beginning of the week the pound was able to increase slightly amid the UK government bond yields growth relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The Bank of England governor speech supported the pound. McCafferty said that the rake hike was necessary and the hike would be gradual. The pair USD/JPY is showing symbolic growth amid the moderate demand for the "risky assets" which put pressure on the Japanese yen as the funding currency. Also, investors attention is paid to the US API crude oil and the number of building permits publication. The Australian Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Council last meeting (October 6) minutes noted that there was a correct decision to leave the rates unchanged at the October meeting. The Australian dollar decline supports the system balance change in favor of escape from the extractive economic nature. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The greenback continued to pressure its main competitors first half of the week - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 94.97. The US dollar is supported by the US API crude oil reserves and the building permits number. The single European currency is still under pressure in the run-up to the ECB meeting. The pair is showing a downward correction. The decrease was stopped at the level of 1.1325. The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410, the next one is at the level of 1.1530. We have a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. We have a Dead Cross signal. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the pair keeps falling we expect the level of 1.1260 to be reach soon. Shall the EUR/USD return to the growth it will go to the level 1.1410. Pound General overview The pound supports the UK government bond yields growth relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The Bank of England governors speech affected the pair. The GBP/USD grew to 1.55 after his speech. McCafferty confirmed his plans to change the rate. According to McCafferty the lending companies term have been improved. The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pair is in a flat right now between 1.5420- 1.5520. There is a confirmed and strong buy signal; the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upwards movement. The pair will keep its growth until it stays above the Cloud. The MACD is in a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the pair breaks the level 1.5460 and consolidates above it the growth will be continued. The growth target is the level of 1.5550. Shall the pair return below the level it will go to 1.5390. Yen (JPY) General overview The JPY market short positions are still at the low level despite the fact that the expectations concerning the Bank of Japan monetary policy easing increased compared with the previous month. Technical indicators are neutral and point to the side dynamics continuation. The pair is between two levels: 119.20 and 120.40. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40a. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a weak buy signal as the price has just left the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give a Golden Cross signal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing. Trading recommendations If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 120.40. If it falls it will decrease to 119.20. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 22.10.2015 Fundamental analysis The major pairs continued to consolidate in the narrow ranges amid the lack of relevant data. The market completely ignored the published economic statistics. The euro zone improved lending conditions news was an exception which led to the short-term pressure on the US dollar. Apparently, traders are waiting for the new guidelines and they determined to wait when the ECB will announce its monetary policy decisions. Investors liked the ECB lending survey results which showed that the quantitative easing program bears its fruits, improving the credit conditions. It could set up to the concerns decrease that the ECB would expand the bond purchase program. However, the euro interest has been short-lived and the euro was almost back to their original positions by the end of the day. There were "cable" short-term purchases amid the Bank of England J. McCafferty harsh comments who said that the bank should start the interest rates rising now to get the interest rate gradual and steady growth. However, this rhetoric has supported the British currency for a short time. The pound showed a lateral movement. The Japanese yen fell against the dollar. Obviously, the mood, connected with another monetary easing at the next BoJ meeting and the US interest rates increase is the main topic for the yen traders. The agencies polls show that the traders percentage who believe in incentives volume growing has been increasing. The pair stopped in the middle of the trading day then the price changed the direction to the downward one. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro has completely leveled the previous growth success against the dollar. The ECB representative Linde said that if necessary the ECB could expand the quantitative easing program. According to him, they are not in a hurry to hike the rate as the euro area inflation raises some concerns. The pair EUR/USD continues to trade in the range, limited by the resistance near 1.1410 and the support near 1.1325. The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the levels of 1.1410 and 1.1530. We have a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen upwards; the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. We have a Golden Cross signal. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing. Trading recommendations We wait for the ECB meeting results that may give us the clue regarding the ECB further plans. We still two ways the price to go: the level of 1.1325 if the EUR/USD decreases and the level of 1.1410 if it grows. Pound (GBP) General overview The pound has remained stable, although it is still under pressure. The Bank of England representative McCafferty said that the interest gradual increase can justify the monetary policy tightening in the short term. The Bank of England needs to avoid deviation from the course when making interest rates decisions; there is a risk that the inflation will be above the target level in 2017. The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pair is in a flat right now between 1.5420- 1.5520. There is a confirmed and strong buy signal; the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form Dead Cross. The pair will keep growing until it stays above the Cloud. The MACD is in a neutral territory. The histogram is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the pair breaks the level 1.5460 and consolidates above it the growth will be continued. The growth target is the level of 1.5550. Shall the pair return below the level it will go to 1.5390. Yen (JPY) General overview The pair USD/JPY is consolidating its achievements in anticipation of the Fed representatives speeches. However, the current statistics do not support the dollar. Now traders expect the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen evening speech, hoping to hear hints about the interest rates increase. Traders hope the rate hike will be this year. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a weak buy signal, the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give a Golden Cross signal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing. Trading recommendations If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 120.40. If it falls it will decrease to 119.20. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 28.10.2015 Fundamental analysis The pair EUR/USD decreased by 0.3% amid the short positions profit taking. The pair GBP/USD finished the trades with the quotations decrease by 0.35% amid the September US new home sales negative release. The pair USD/JPY decreased by 0.35% by the end of the day amid the carry trade closure which caused the demand for the yen as a funding currency. The morning course of the trades was determined by the debt and equity markets dynamics. Yesterday the credit markets German 10-year government bond yields rose up relative to their US and the UK counterparts, which is a positive factor for the single European currency. The world leading stock markets showed a moderate correction movement, however, demand for the "risky assets" is still preserved. The main event of the day was the third quarter UK GDP release report. There was the third quarter service sector growth rate slowdown, this sector is the basis of the UK economy. According to the Markit Economics PMI data, the manufacturing sector also showed a decrease compared to the previous quarter. The negative factor is the state budget gradual reduction, which reduces the multiplier effect in the economy. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview Yesterday the credit markets German 10-year government bond yields rose up relative to their UA and the UK counterparts which is a positive factor for the single European currency. The world leading stock markets showed a moderate correction movement. The US statistics was in the focus yesterday. The durable goods orders pleased traders with the positive data. The labor market upward trend contributes to the household spending increase. The September car sales increased in the domestic market The pair euro/dollar tends to decrease. The attempts to form a low bottom are expected. The first support is at the level of 1.0925. The resistance levels are 1.1050 and 1.1150. We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the Dead Cross. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the pair keeps growing it will reach the resistance 1.1050, the second growth target is the level of 1.1150. Shall the pair fall the target will be the level 1.0925. Pound (GBP) General overview The third quarter UK GDP release was the main event of the day. The trade deficit increase amid the British currency revaluation against the euro is traditionally a negative factor for an economy growth. However, that is not so bad for the UK economy. The unemployment level reduction and the average earnings growth, taking into account premiums make the household spending increase which eventually moderates out the mentioned above negative factors. The pair tends to decline. The pair failed to break through the key resistance of 1.5390 and it is under pressure now. The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5460. We have a strong sell signal; the price is below the Cloud now. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be continued until the pair does not break the Ichimoku Cloud upwards. The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the price breaks the level of 1.5300, the downward movement will be continued to 1.5200. In case of a growth the level of 1.5390 will be our first target. Yen (JPY) General overview This week traders attention will be focused on the Fed meeting where the US interest rates decision will be made. The Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for October 30 where the regulator will also decide on the country interest rate. Currently, the Japan economy is showing very weak recovery signs and the country inflation rate remains far below the target of 2.0%. If the Fed refrains from the interest rates raising, it could prompt the Bank of Japan to the monetary policy further easing. The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40. There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards, the Kijun-sen is showing a horizontal movement. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. Otherwise we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 29.10.2015 Fundamental analysis During the day the euro rate was demonstrating a positive trend against the most world currencies after its decline the day before. Traders were expecting the US Federal Reserve decision about the monetary policy. The Fed meeting was held on October 27-28. Analysts were sure that the regulator would keep the base rate at its lowest level and would delay the monetary policy tightening till 2016. Their assumptions were correct as the Fed did not change the rates. The FED meeting supported the dollar. Regulator hinted that the next rate hike might happen this December In the context of some uncertainty investors prefer safer assets. In addition, investors continue to win back the US controversial statistics. Thus, the country durable goods orders volume decreased by 1.2% in September compared to August while analysts expected a decrease by 1.5%. The Conference Board analytical company said in its turn that the US consumer confidence index fell to 97.6 points in October from the revised September figure of 102.6 points. Analysts predicted the index to be at the initial level of 103 points in September. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The Federal Open Market Committee statement (FOMC Statement) was expected with moderately aggressive tone, despite the weak economic reports for the last two weeks. The German GfK consumer confidence index was expected to decrease from 9.6 to 9.5 in September. Traders expected the September imports prices at 0.2% after 1.5% in August. The Fed left the rates unchanged. Still the regulator may change the rate this December. The rate change will depend on the November meeting results. The short-term correction from the support level of 1.1050 turned downwards. Sellers broke the level and fell further. The first support is at the level of 1.0870, the next one is at 1.0830. The resistance levels are 1.0925 and 1.1050. We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the Dead Cross. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing. Trading recommendations If the pair grows it will reach the resistance 1.0925. Still we do not believe in a growth right now. We presume that the pair will keep falling after yesterdays Fed meeting. The targets are 1.0870 and 1.0830. Pound (GBP) General overview The 3rd quarter UK GDP was only 0.5% against the quite weak forecast of 0.6% and a growth by 0.7% in the 2nd quarter. The US durable goods orders volume (Durable Goods Orders) decreased by 1.2% in September against the forecast of -1.1% and -2.3% in August, according to the basic indicator (except transport components), the reduction was 0, 4% against the neutral forecast of 0.0%. The upward trend which began at the support level of 1.5100 showed reversal signals. The support level of 1.5325 and the rising channel lower bound of 1.5320 breakthrough were among these signals. The first support is at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The resistance is at the level of 1.5300, the second one is at 1.5390. We have a strong sell signal; the price is below the Cloud now. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be continued until the pair does not break the Ichimoku Cloud upwards. The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is decreasing. Trading recommendations The pair sharply fell at yesterday American session. The pair may return to the resistance 1.5300 for a while still we support the idea that the decrease will be continued. Our primary targets are 1.5200 and 1.5100. Yen (JPY) General overview The expected lateral trend resulted in a rather strong decline at the technical level of 120.40 due to worse-than-expected US September new home sales and the durable goods orders volume data. The stock market declined on Monday and Tuesday and as a result the market got the yen decrease by 82 points yesterday. The Bank of Japan intends to leave the current monetary policy unchanged. The Central Bank will make up a decision on this issue on the Friday meeting. Still the reason of yesterdays pair growth was the FED decision that supported the greenback. The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40. There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards, the Kijun-sen is directed upwards, both lines are forming a Golden Cross. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 30.10.2015 Fundamental analysis The US Federal Reserve meeting has been already held and it's time to sum up results. The monetary authorities kept interest rates unchanged and pointed out to the December rate hike possibility. It should be noted that the FED has been promising to change the policy since June so it was not obviously a new event for financial markets. Our attention was drawn to the UK September mortgage lending publication. The labor market positive dynamics (the unemployment reduction and the average earnings growth) with the mortgages interest rates decline point out to the positive data output. Against this background, the British currency gained short-term support. During the day, the "bullish" sentiment dominated within the pair USD/JPY for two reasons. Firstly, the Asian trading session industrial production data were published that put pressure on the Japanese currency. Secondly, the PMI production sector decline with the factory orders decrease did not allow investors to count on the strong data output. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The FOMC again pointed out to the weak export, the number of new jobs decline and the low inflationary expectations. However, the US currency showed a powerful growth the previous day. Traders again continued to win back the divergence after a pause, waiting for the Federal Reserve and the ECB central banks actions. The first support is at the level of 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0870. The resistance levels are 1.1050 and 1.1150. We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the Dead Cross. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing. Trading recommendations The resistance 1.1050 is our first growth target. We expect the pair to keep falling. The targets are 1.0925 and 1.0870. Pound (GBP) General overview According to the Ministry of Energy the US crude oil stocks again increased which may put pressure on the basic reference varieties price. The USA did not please traders with the last quarter positive GDP release. The index was expected to reach 1.6%, but in fact it turned out to be worse than expected having amounted less than 1.5%. The Great Britain, on the other hand, upset traders with weak data regarding the same indicator. The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5460. We have a strong sell signal; the price is below the Cloud now. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. The downward movement will be continued until the pair does not break the Ichimoku Cloud upwards. The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is decreasing. Trading recommendations Though the pair returned to the resistance 1.5300 we do not believe it will grow much higher. We support the sell idea. Our primary targets are 1.5200 and 1.5100. Yen (JPY) General overview The Apple company positive report with the FOMC "pigeon rhetoric" supported the US stock market and today we may expect the upward trend continuation. Demand for the "risky assets" will put pressure on the yen as a funding currency. The price is finding the first support at 121.60, the next one is 120.40. The resistance is at 122.40, the next one is at 123.50. There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing. Trading recommendations If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 02.11.2015 Fundamental analysis Last Friday the United States did not please traders with the third quarter GDP positive data. The index showed 1.5%0 with the consensus forecast of 1.6%. The Government statistics have recorded a personal income growth, still the household spending has fallen. The negative dynamics also affected the investments and net exports. Now, however, it is not necessary to perceive this report as pessimistically as investors "laid" in quotes the GDP growth slowdown. We should carefully monitor the debt and commodity markets dynamics amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics. The UK government bond yields have been growing for two trading days in a row regarding to their US and Germany competitors which increases the investments attractiveness in the British assets. The Brent crude oil can continue to decline at any time amid the world oversupply as well as the US desire to sell oil from the strategic reserve. The US reserves have 695.1 million barrels. The commodity quotations decrease has a positive impact on the dollar as the raw materials cost was denominated in the US dollars. The Japanese 10-year government bond yields which reflect investors' inflationary expectations fell by 5 bp in September. Consumer spending is increasing amid the average wage growth; however, the current growth is not high enough to talk about the inflationary pressures increase. The low energy prices remain a major threat to the price stability. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro fell sharply, having lost more than 100 points in a few minutes when the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. The dollar rose after the decision to keep the monetary policy unchanged, moreover, the regulator noted that they would decide the further plans for the rates at the next meeting. In this situation, the euro suffered the most of all and fell sharply against the dollar, the pound and the yen. The data have shown that the November consumer confidence index, calculated by Gfk, came out at the forecasted level and was 9.4 while the previous figures showed 9.6 in October. The first support is at the level of 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0870. The resistance levels are 1.1050 and 1.1150. We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen upwards; two lines are forming the Dead Cross. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing. Trading recommendations The resistance 1.1050 is our first growth target. We expect the pair to keep falling. The decrease targets are 1.0925 and 1.0870. Pound (GBP) General overview The pound increased to 1.5300 and updated the two week lows in the framework of decline that was provoked by the Federal Reserve statement. The Committee recognizes that the employment growth slowed and the inflation remained below the target value of 2%, still the question of a possible interest rate hike will be open in December. As traders expected a more pessimistic turn of events the dollar has grown. The first support is at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The resistance is at the level of 1.5460, the second one is at 1.5550. We have a buy signal now as the price broke the Cloud upwards. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The upward movement will be continued if the pair stays above the Ichimoku Cloud. The MACD is above its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is growing. Trading recommendations If the price keeps growing, it will go to the level of 1.5460. The decrease target is the level of 1.5390. Yen (JPY) General overview The short-term bond yields also suggest that the December rate hike possibility is maintained. The two years bond yields increased by 9 pm while the 10 year bond yields rose up by 6 pm. Earlier the market did not react to the US trade balance positive data. The publication showed that the US trade deficit narrowed to $58.63 billion in September, compared to $ 67.19 billion the previous month, which is less than the forecast of $64.90 billion. The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40. There is a weak and confirmed buy signal; the pair is in the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. If the USD/JPY remains returns above the Cloud the growth will be continued. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the pair returns above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 03.11.2015 Fundamental analysis The US reports showed that the consumer spending and incomes grew less than expected while the personal consumption expenditures price index has shown the biggest fall since January. The published US PMI in the manufacturing sector was better than expected - 50.1 vs the forecast of 50.0. The statistics supported the pair EUR/USD having shown that the pre-consumer inflation justified the analysts forecasts, having shown 0.0% in annual terms. The basic consumer price index rose up by 1.0% y/y vs. 0.9%. The separate report has witnessed the euro area unemployment rate decrease to 10.8% against the September value of 11.0% and the August value of 10.9%. The inflation report could cast a shadow on the Bank of England rate change decision in May 2016. If the report coincides with the economic growth forecasts decrease, the market will regard it as a "dovish" tone. The inflation is expected to grow to the level of 2% next year which makes a rate hike in May more possible. The October PMI showed a 55.5 against the expected 51.3. The pair USD/JPY returned to its previous range at the end of the last week. The Bank of Japan decision to leave the monetary policy unchanged suggests that the Central Bank see the situation differently. The Japanese regulator avoids the monetary policy changes, keeping the QE program at the level of 80 trillion yens ($660 billion.), despite the further easing growing expectations amid the weak statistics. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro was near 1.1030 before the euro area business activity reports publication. The manufacturing activity index will be in the Europe and the United States spotlight. The ISM purchasing managers index will be closely studied, especially the employment sub-index as the market is monitoring the employment and inflation in order to understand what will be the Federal Reserve December decision. The euro growth may be restrained due to the ECB December further easing expectations. The first support is at the level of 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0870. The resistance levels are 1.1050 and 1.1150. We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen upwards; two lines are forming the Dead Cross. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The histogram is growing. Trading recommendations The resistance of 1.1050 limits the pairs growth. We expect the pair to keep falling. The decrease targets are 1.0925 and 1.0870. Pound (GBP) General overview The pound has significantly grown, especially taken into consideration the euro decline. If we compare two banks that can potentially increase the rate we will see the difference between the Bank of England and the Fed rhetoric. The Fed maintains the hope of the December rate hike while the last month Bank of England reports tone was rather mild. The inflation report can cast doubt on the Bank of England decision. If it coincides with the economic growth forecasts decrease, the market will regard it as a "dovish" tone. The first support is at 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5300. The resistance is at the level of 1.5460, the next one is at 1.5550. We have a buy signal now as the price broke the Cloud upwards and stays above of it. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The upward movement will be continued if the pair stays above the Ichimoku Cloud. The MACD is above its signal line in the positive territory. The histogram is growing. Trading recommendations If the price keeps growing, it will go to the level of 1.5460. The decrease target is the support level of 1.5390. Yen (JPY) General overview The US dollar stopped the two day decline and regained some of its losses as traders are closing dollar positions. The European stock market was opened with a decrease. Markets reacted negatively to the weak China PMI, preferring safe assets, including the yen. The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40. There is a weak and confirmed buy signal; the pair is in the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen crosses the Kijun-sen downwards. If the USD/JPY returns above the Cloud the growth will be continued. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The histogram is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the pair returns above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 8, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 09.11.2015 Fundamental analysis The whole last week the dollar was in demand and has increased. The pound was an outsider last week, it fell against the dollar and other majors after it became clear that the Bank of England would not soon increase the interest rates. The US currency strengthened against the yen amid the growing expectations about the US policy tightening. The pair was under the US statistics influence. There was not so much statistical data, the last week unemployment benefits information pointed to the jobless claims increase by 16 thousand to 276 thousand which was worse the expected 260 thousand. But it did not upset the market, because this level is attesting the labor market improvement. The NFP came out better then expected. That again supported the dollar. The data came higher than expected 185 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 271 thousand. The dollar suffered slight losses within the USD/JPY that were caused, obviously, by the technical factors, which provided support to the European currency at the strong support levels. The Fed top management speeches had little impact on the market events as the most speeches did not affect the monetary policy topic, but the banking system regulatory issues. However, the Atlanta Fed President Lockhart D. allowed himself some hints regarding the December interest rates increase, saying that there will be more reasons to increase the rate on the eve of the December. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro area consumer prices fell by 0.1% in September, but in general it showed zero dynamics in October, despite the asset purchase program worth 60 billion euros per month which the ECB has launched 7 months ago to revitalize the inflation growth. The Germany manufacturing sector orders have also showed the third month decline in a row. The weak data reinforced concerns about the China slowdown and other key emerging markets decline started to have a negative impact on the European largest economy. The price is finding the first support at 1.0730, the next one is 1.0630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a Dead Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The NFP came out with better than the forecast results. That news supported the dollar. The NFP gave the pair an additional impetus downwards. The first downward movement target is 1.0630. Still pullbacks towards 1.0800 are possible. Pound (GBP) General Overview The "cable" has fallen against all of its major opponents after the BoE broke investors' hopes for an early policy tightening that supported the pound in recent years. The Bank of England left the key rates unchanged at the level of 0.5% and the immutability securities purchase fund worth $375 billion pounds. The pound fell after the regulator comments that signaled that the UK monetary policy tightening necessity has decreased amid the global economy deterioration until mid-2016 and perhaps until the beginning of 2017. The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a Dead Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The last week news background sent a pound to a knock-down. The pair fell from the level of 1.5400, breaking several levels on its way. After such a strong fall we expect a pullback and a consolidation. The possible rebound targets are the levels of 1.5100, 1.5150 and 1.5200. The southern movement target is 1.4970. Yen (JPY) General Overview The pair continued its growth and showed small increase to the previous highs by the end of the day. The dollar keeps supporting the pair when it got support amid the positive releases after the regulator's statements about the US possible monetary policy tightening. The BoJ governor H. Kuroda said that the central bank would examine the economic changes and would make the optimal decisions at each meeting in order to achieve the inflation of 2% as soon as possible. It sounded like the willingness to increase the quantitative easing if necessary that put pressure on the yen. The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The dollar within the USD/JPY is growing. The growth target is the level of 123.80, still we do not exclude a consolidation and rebounds down to the levels of 122.40 and 121.30. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 18.11.2015 Fundamental analysis The euro sharply fell against the dollar amid the risk appetite decline after the Paris terrorist attacks reports. The temporary support was the Eurozone October consumer price index (CPI) last estimate which revised the preliminary results. The indicator was increased to 0.1% y/y despite the fact that it previously recorded 0.0% y/y after - 0.1% y/y in September. The ZEW Institute German and the Eurozone business sentiment reports were the main event yesterday. The data came out better then forecasted 6,0 at the level of 10,4. The British pound also fell against the dollar. However, the "cable" losses were not so significant. Apparently, the pound stability continues to provide its appeal as the most high-yielding currency among the majors. The UK news was filled with important information for the pound, namely the inflation data which is one of the main indicators, according to which BoE corrects its monetary policy. By the end of the day the pair increased. The Japanese important economic news was not published; the yen continues to decline against the dollar, probably, on the lingering sentiment for the greenback and on the Japanese stock market optimism where the Nikkei grew by 1.22%. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The Eurozone October consumer prices index came out in its final assessment, the index was revised upwards. The total CPI was 0.1% versus 0.0% in the preliminary estimate and the forecast was with no changes, the core CPI was revised downwards from 1.0% y/y to 1.1% y/y. The data made no impression on the market. The ZEW economic sentiment index was published as well yesterday. It came out at the level of 10,4. The price resumed to its decline. The price consolidated below the level of 1.0730 and tried to test the support of 1.0630. The trade is at this level now. Indicators again indicate the "bearish" sentiment predominance. The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations After the support level of 1.0630 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0550 will be opened. Pound (GBP) General overview The pound high stability may be the result not only the political situation in France, but also because of the UK inflation data where the October retail price index was expected with a growth from 0.8% y/y to 0.9% y/y. In fact the index came out at the level of 0.7%. The UK October consumer price index was expected at the same level of 1.0% y/y but showed a growth to 1.1%. The price is consolidating. After the support successful of 1.5200 breakthrough bears sent the price lower to the mark of 1.5150. Then the pair increased above the resistance level of 1.5200. The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. We do not exclude the growth to 1.5300. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japanese 3rd quarter GDP in the 2nd preliminary estimate was revised to -0.2% against -0.1%. The US important economic indices were published - the consumer price index and the industrial production volume. These data put pressure on the yen. However the dollar’s strengthening on the market allowed the pair to grow. The pair is trying to consolidate above the level of 123.20. After this mark successful breakthrough bears took over the initiative and sent the instrument downwards, trying to test the level from the top. The price is finding the first support at 123.20, the next one is 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.80, the next one is at 124.30. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 123.80 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 124.30. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 19.11.2015 Fundamental analysis The German ZEW institute business climate showed the figures better than the consensus forecast, still this indicator downward trend is still strong. On the contrary, the United States have pleased traders with the October moderately positive inflation data. In the light of this the United States and the Germany bond yields grew that increases the investments’ attractiveness in the US assets. The FOMC authoritative representative U.Dadli gave his speech in the United States. He said that the rates growth would be a good news for the dollar. The pair euro/dollar was trading in a flat. The US and the UK CPI differential profitability indicators declined in favor of the latter in October which caused the UK government bond yields increase relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The side trades were noted in the pair pound/dollar. According to the third quarter GDP data, Japan slipped into the technical recession. The US October inflation showed a moderate growth that reinforced investors' expectations, regarding the Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening possibility. The Japanese yen is an obvious outsider among the other pairs. The pair dollar/yen increased. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The sentiment related with the ECB and the Fed multi-directional policy continued to help the US dollar to keep the leadership. The European statistics has not published important news, the September construction volume data did not change the market sentiment. After M. Draghi unequivocal sayings about the intention to increase the monetary policy easing, the ECB representatives' statements were ignored. The pair shows a consolidation above the support level of 1.0630 after its reduction and this level testing. The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 1.0630, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.0550. Pound (GBP) General overview The pound was supported by the UK inflation data. The UK did not publish any important news. The news background was filled with the Bank of England representatives’ speeches that were ignored. Investors were waiting for the US FOMC last meeting reports. "Bulls" have not been able to renew their attempts to increase to the resistance level of 1.5300. The price broke through the support level of 1.5200 but then it returned above this level. The pair started its consolidation. The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The pair can rebound to the resistance level of 1.5300. After breaking 1.5300 the buyers may go to 1.5390. Yen (JPY) General overview The pair has slightly increased, supported by the continuing dollar growth and the Japan stock market optimism growth. However, there was not any high activity at the market. The price demonstrated the slight decline caused by the technical factors and the lack of Japanese economic news. The Fed minutes have been published, but they have not had any effect on the dollar. The price continued its growth, but was stopped below the mark of 123.80. The price is finding the first support at 123.20, the next one is 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.80, the next one is at 124.30. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 123.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 124.30 will be opened after this breakthrough. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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