"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

19.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar weakened amid the risk aversion in the stock markets. The interest in the safe assets grew amid the fall of oil prices. The oil prices fell after negative results of the oil exporters' meeting in Doha. The weaker-than-expected data from the US pressured the dollar as well. The USA Industrial Production fell by 0.6% against the expected 0.1%, Capacity Utilization fell to 74.8% from 75.4%, and the preliminary Consumer Confidence index for April (Reuters/Michigan) fell to 89.7 against the forecast of 92.

The fall of the risk appetite supported the euro as a funding currency. The growth slowdown of the Chinese GDP and the weak economic data from the United States cooled-down the interest in the risky assets. The main factors that caused the dollar fall were: China economic growth decrease to its lowest level and moderately negative data on the US inflation. The pair EUR/USD strengthened.

Traders took profit and closed their orders in oil contracts that caused a technical correction to the psychological level of $ 40 per barrel. Low energy prices n traditionally had a negative impact on the British currency. Then the oil price increased and the pair GBP/USD closed the trades with a growth.

On Monday, William Dudley (the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York) said that the US labor market steadily recovered and the Central Bank would gradually and cautiously continue normalizing the interest rates. There were negative reports on Inflation, Retail Sales and Industrial Production last week. These factors also played into the bears’ hands in the pair USD/JPY. After a gap downward the USD/JPY grew by the end of the trades.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Even though the market does not expect any sensation from the ECB meeting on April 21st, it could have a great impact on the EUR/USD. According to Mario Draghi the weakness of emerging markets, uncertain prospects of oil and geopolitical risks hamper European HICP and push the ECB to take action.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1260, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1150.

Pound

General overview

The pound fell on Monday amid bad news from Doha and deepening fears regarding Brexit. The official campaign for the referendum began last Friday. The two sides are now making efforts to convince the public about the merits of their point of view. According to George Osborne (the UK Finance Minister) the growth of Britain economy will be significantly reduced if the country leaves the EU.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4320 and 1.4400.

Yen

General overview

By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen increased. It should be noted that the demand for the safe-heaven yen jumped to near 18-month high against the dollar, as oil prices collapsed when the largest oil producers failed to reach an agreement. The yen generally strengthened since the beginning of the year, as investors' concerns about the policy of negative interest rates in Japan and Europe led to an increase in demand for safe assets.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential target is 109.00. If the price falls it will get to 108.20.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

20.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The recent risk aversion in the Forex market was caused by the prices collapse whi. The news that exporters did not come to an agreement in Doha to freeze production at January levels disappointed the energy market. Later the situation was fundamentally changed. Traders’ sentiment was improved by the aggressive correction of the “black gold”, together with the positive comments from the Fed (the regulator was confident that the inflation would return to the target level).

Consumer Spending reports in the United States did not allow us to expect a strong data on the building permits volume. Against the background of a low base from December to February (decreased by 9.19%) the index is expected to display growth within the median forecasts at the level of 1,200M. However the data came in at the level of 1,086M.

Germany and Eurozone published Economic Sentiment for April. Economic Sentiment in Germany came in at 11.2 with the forecast of 8.0. The index in Eurozone came in at 21.5 with the expectations of 13.9. The pair EUR/USD finished the day with a growth.

The UK 10-year government bonds yield grew in the bonds market which increased the attractiveness of the British assets. The pair pound/dollar showed a growth.

Kuroda (the BoJ Governor) in his interview to Wall Street Journal defended the negative interest rates. According to him the Regulator will low the long-term interest rates by 20 basis points. He also hinted that the Bank of Japan might cut the interest rates further. The pair dollar/yen fell by the end of the trades.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro grew amid the risk aversion. Now the euro dynamics depends rather on the market sentiment than on European economic statistics and senior European officials’ comments.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1350 and 1.1260.

Pound

General overview

The pound may remain volatile as the possibility of a rate hike was reduced by the Bank of England. While taking a decision on the interest rates last week, the English regulator also discussed the risks for the country economy in case of Brexit. According to M. Carney speech on Tuesday the impact of Brexit would not be helpful and it would make a financing of the payment balance more costly.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4400 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4480.

Yen

General overview

After a strong recovery from 17-month low the pair returned into a narrow range. The US published Building Permits (the index came in at 1.086M, the forecast was 1,200M) and Housing Starts data (the index came in at 1.089M, the forecast was 1.170M).

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 108.20 breakthrough down the way to the support 107.40 will be opened.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

20.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar was under pressure after the weak US statistics publication. In March, Building Permits showed 1.086M vs. the forecast of 1.200M and the previous value 1.177M. Housing Starts index also disappointed the market, falling to 1.089M from 1.194M. The following data supported the US currency: Existing Home Sales showed 5.33M with the forecast of 5.30M.

This week macroeconomic statistics reduced the US and Germany government bonds yield differential, which played into the euro bulls’ hands. ZEW index for April reached the maximum level over the past three months amid decreasing fears about the reduction of Chinese GDP. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD decreased.

Claimant Count Change for March in the UK grew to 6,7K while the Unemployment Rate remained around 5.1% in February. Average Earnings excluding Bonus for February remained at 2.2%, Average Earnings including Bonus including bonuses fell to 1.8% from 2.1%. The number of unemployed increased by 21 000 people reaching 1.7M. Total wages and salaries in the private sector also slowed down to 1.9%, while the monthly rate fell by 0.9% (the lowest level since July 2014). The pair GBP/USD was trading in a flat.

On the one hand, the weak macroeconomic statistics from the US and the "bullish" sentiment in the commodity market played against the dollar. On the other hand, the "risk appetite" was preserved, that was a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency. The USD / JPY strengthened by the end of the trades.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

In Germany, the Producer Price index was in a flat from February to March. Still the index fell by 3.1% y/y (the strongest drop since January 2010). Economists expected a growth of 0.1% m/m, and a decline of 2.9% y/y. According to the latest reports, the upward pressure on consumer prices from the manufacturers is limited. The consumer climate in 28 EU countries decreased by 3.2 points from 12,2 points in December 2015 to 9 points in March 2016.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1260, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1150.

Pound

General overview

The GBP/USD formed a consolidation. Earlier the pair grew confidently amid the oil prices gain and the interest in risky assets. The number of Brexit opponents recently declined. Probably, the recent government warnings about the enormous impact of the country exit from the European Union had a positive effect on the British people.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.4400. If the price falls it will get to 1.4320.

Yen

General overview

The absence of interest in buying the yen became the driver of an upward correction. The correction turned out to be weak amid the risky assets popularity. A limited growth pointed to the weak position of the US currency, which remained under the pressure.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 109.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 110.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

22.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The ECB meeting and M. Draghi press-conference became the main events of Thursday. The regulator left the rate unchanged at 0%. According to Draghi he does not exclude a transfer to the negative rates as well. The soft policy will continue until the inflation reaches 2%.

The pound fell against the US dollar after the disappointing retail sales release, that undermined the optimism about the strength of the British economy. The total volume of retail sales for March was expected with a decrease by 0.1%, but it fell even lower to 1.3%.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index for April decreased and showed -1.6. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 247K against the forecast of 263K.

The yen slightly rose even against the background of weaker-than-expected Trade Balance release. The Balance (taking into account seasonal correction) amounted 755,0B against the expectations of 834,6B. Exports grew from -4.0% y / y to -6.8% y / y, imports grew from -14.2% y / y to 14.9% y / y. Kuroda’s statements regarding further policy easing if necessary supported the yen as well.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB meeting and M. Draghi press-conference were the focus of our attention yesterday. The regulator left the rates unchanged. The euro strengthened, which had a negative impact on exporters. Manufacturing PMI declined, and Net Exports rose by 25.2B which is by 6.66% less than the year before.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the mark of 1.1260, it might continue the downward movement. The potential target is 1.1150. In the alternative scenario, we will see a move to 1.1500.

Pound

General overview

The UK government bonds yield reduced in the Bonds market which decreased the attractiveness of the British assets. The UK retail sales fell by 1.3% in March after falling by 0.5% in February. Analysts expected a decrease of 0.1%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect a decrease towards the level of 1.4160. If the pair gets below the Cloud and consolidates there we will see a deeper move towards 1.4000.

Yen

General overview

Merchandise Trade Balance showed 348.4B in the first quarter. The same index showed a negative balance of 1.379T in 2015. The volume of orders for equipment component continued to show a negative dynamics in March. The index showed a decline of 21.2% y / y. The debt market reacted to these reports with the differential expansion of US and Japanese government bonds yields.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair consolidates above 109.80 it may go higher to 110.60. Otherwise, the pair will decrease to 108.00.

Franc

General overview

In March, the Trade Surplus amounted 2.163M compared with the previous data of 4.022M. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 247K against the forecast of 263K.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9700, the next one is at 0.9650. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9800.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair consolidates above 0.9750 it may go higher to 0.9800. Otherwise, the pair will decrease to 0.9650.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

Last Friday the dollar rose against major currencies to weekly highs amid the disappointing statistics in the Eurozone. The United States published Manufacturing PMI for April. The index came in at 50.8, the forecast was 52.0.

According to Markit research Group PMI composite index in the Euro zone fell to 53.0 in April from 53.1 in March. The same index in Germany rose to 51.9 in April from 50.7 in the previous month, while Service PMI fell to 54.6 from 55.1.

The speculations that the Bank of Japan may introduce new stimulus measures at the next meeting on April 27-28 continued to press the yen. The Central Bank may extend the program of buying assets or promote the interest rates even further into a negative territory.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Manufacturing PMI in Germany rose more than expected last month. The index showed 51.9 compared with 50.7 in the previous month. Experts expected the index to grow to 51.0.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

We see a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be continued till the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair broke through the first target, the level of 1.1260 and kept going down. We believe the south movement will be continued. The potential target is 1.1150. As a correction we could see a return to 1.1260.

Pound

General overview

The British news background was empty last Friday. The market paid attention to the "black gold" dynamics where the price showed a correction. Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count was published. The report again showed the reduction of the drilling rigs in the United States. The index showed 343 versus the previous figure of 351.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The growth will be continued while the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price made new attempts to grow. If the price consolidates above 1.4400 the growth will be continued to 1.4480. We will sell if the price gets below 1.4240.

Yen

General overview

The US and Japanese government bonds yields differential expanded which increased the attractiveness of the US assets. The Bank of Japan plans to introduce negative interest rates on some loans.

The price is finding the first support at 111.40, the next one is at 110.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00.

The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. Both lines form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be continued until the price gets below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is heading towards the resistance of 112.20. Still the USD/JPY may turn down to correct. The correction targets are 111.40 and 110.60.

Franc

General overview

The dollar rose against the Swiss franc at the end of the week. The economic calendar was empty and the market paid attention to the news from the USA. In the US, Manufacturing PMI decreased. The index showed 50.8 with the forecast of 52.0.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9700. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9800, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be continued while the price stays above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is growing to 0.9900. We expect a correction to 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

26.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market started the week rather good. Trading was in the absence of any drivers. The United States published New Home Sales report in March (the previous value was 512K; the forecast was 527K). The data came in at the level of 511K.

Germany published Business Climate for April (106.6 versus the forecast of 107.0). The index low forecast is due to its close correlation with the composite PMI. Which prevented a better forecast for Business climate, taking into account the negative dynamics of the latter. However the pair EUR/USD increased.

The pair GBP/USD started the week with a growth. Oil prices successfully completed the previous trading week in the "green zone", despite Doha summit failure. The oil market bullish sentiment had a positive impact on the British currency (as expected). In spite of the oil prices decrease the GBP/USD grew.

The USDJPY rallied amid a sharp collapse of the yen in response to the news from the Bank of Japan. According to the market rumors the regulator is considering the possibility of issuing loans with a negative rate. These conversations provoked the Japanese currency sell-off. Nevertheless, as a result the USD/JPY fell.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The fact that the ECB left the interest rates unchanged had an impact on the euro. The euro fell in response to this news. The 10-year German government bonds yield decreased in the Bonds Market. Still the pair EUR/USD could slightly strengthen in the beginning of the week. The Fed meeting will be the focus of our attention this week.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential targets are 1.1260 and 1.1150.

Pound

General overview

The sterling grew after Obama’s speech (the US President). According to Barack Obama the UK will get in the "end of line" concerning the trade agreement with the United States if the country leaves the EU alliance. The UK GDP report for the first quarter is the main event in the country for this week. The report is to be published on Wednesday. The forecast is 0.4%, the previous value was 0.6%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4560, the next one is 1.4640.

Yen

General overview

The dollar declined against the yen on Monday leaving three-week highs. The market is waiting for the Fed meeting and BoJ meeting.

The price is finding the first support at 110.60, the next one is at 109.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 111.40, the next one is at 112.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support levels of 110.60. We do not exclude the growth to 111.40 and 112.20.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

27.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the economic calendar was full of American releases. Durable Goods Orders report for March was published the first (0.8% vs forecast 1.8%). Consumer Confidence for April came in at 94.2 (the previous value was 94.2, the forecast was 96.0). Traders expected to see a hint regarding the state of the economy before the Fed decision on Wednesday, which could have an impact on any further movement of the dollar. Meanwhile investors avoided opening new positions before the Fed meeting.

There was no important news in the Eurozone yesterday. After a strong growth the pair euro/dollar slightly decreased by the end of the trades.

The UK published Mortgage Approvals index for March (45.1K vs the forecast 46.0K). The pair pound/dollar showed a growth but by the end of the trades it slightly fell.

The interest in the safe assets triggered the buying of yen. The rumours that the BoJ won’t apply new soft measures supported the yen as well. We believe that the regulator will evaluate more carefully the effect of the running measures and will apply the new ones only in June. The pair dollar/yen strengthened.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro strengthened amid the interest in the safe assets buying. The euro ignored the IFO release and continued slowly growing. In the Bonds Market, the 10-year German government bonds yield rose which increased the attractiveness of the European assets.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1260 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1150 will be opened.

Pound

General overview

In the Bonds Market the 10-year government bonds yield differential (the US and the UK) continued to decline which increased the attractiveness of the British assets. In addition, the release of negative macroeconomic data from the United States contributed to a further decrease of the differential.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4760 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen

General overview

The Bonds Market sent "bullish signals": the US and Japanese securities yield differential expanded again which became a bullish factor for the US currency. The oil market growth can become the driver for the dollar to grow.

The price is finding the first support at 110.60, the next one is at 109.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 111.40, the next one is at 112.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 112.20 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 113.00.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

28.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar remained stable to other majors on Wednesday preparing for the final Federal Reserve System political statements. Investors focused on the outcome of the political meeting waiting for any hints regarding the interest rates change in June. The Fed kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.5%.

Consumer Confidence in Germany significantly improved (9.7 versus the previous 9.4). Consumers believe that the German economy will recover in the coming months and expect its moderate recovery. The pair euro/dollar slightly strengthened.

The pound stopped the growth when the market found out that the UK economy had grown by 0.4%, in line with economists' expectations, but slowed to 0.6% in the previous quarter. The UK economic growth in the first quarter was 2.1%, (on an annual terms) similar to the previous quarter and slightly higher than the expected 2.0%. The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a decrease.

The pair dollar/yen increased by end of the trades.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

In the bond market the government bonds yield differential (the US and Germany) decreased, which was a "bullish" factor for the euro. The commodity market showed an upward trend that traditionally had a negative impact on the dollar as commodity prices are in the US currency. The US Fed meeting was the focus of the market attention.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.1260 further on we expect a downward movement to 1.1150.

Pound

General overview

The UK Gross Domestic Product rose up by 0.4%, as expected. The UK economy showed a growth of 0.6%. In the Bonds Market, the 10-year UK government bonds yield increased which slightly supported the demand for the pound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4480 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.4400.

Yen

General overview

All Industry Activity Index (m / m) decreased for the last month (-1.2% vs. the forecast of -1.3%). These data were revised downward to 2.0%. Experts expected the index to decline to 1.3% over the past month. The trading activity was low as traders waited for the Fed and the Bank of Japan meeting outcome.

The price is finding the first support at 110.60, the next one is at 109.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 111.40, the next one is at 112.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 111.40 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 112.20 will be opened after this breakthrough.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

29.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The Eurozone published the inflation report for Germany (0,2%) and Economic Sentiment Indicator (103,9). In addition, Germany published Unemployment Rate which remained unchanged at 6.2% (in line with the forecasts). Unemployment Change showed -16K.

The UK published Nationwide Housing Prices for April (on a monthly and annual basis). The index showed 0.2% m/m after the previous 0.8% m/m.

The US GDP for the 1st quarter became the main event of the day (the 1st assessment). The index came in at 0.5%, the forecast was 0.7% vs. 1.4% in the 4th quarter. Initial Jobless Claims showed 257K (the previous value was 247K, the forecast was 252K).

The Bank of Japan did not change its monetary policy and did not extend the stimulus rate. The Central Bank is still focused on the increase in the monetary base by 80 trillion yen per year, the deposit rate remained unchanged at - 0.1%.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Unemployment Change in Germany showed -16K, the previous value was -3K. Experts had expected a growth by 4K. Unemployment rate remained at the same level of 6,2%, which corresponded to the forecasts.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1260 soon. The next target will be 1.1150.

Pound

General overview

Nationwide Housing Prices in the UK amounted to 0,2% compared with 0,8% in the previous month. Experts had expected a growth by 0,4%. The US published the GDP report for April. The data came in at the level of 0,5% q/q (the previous value was 1,4% q/q, the forecast was 0,7% q/q).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4760 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen

General overview

The yen grew when the Bank of Japan did not change the interest rates, as expected. The regulator decided not to apply any further negative interest rates. Industrial Production for March rose by 3.6% on monthly basis, while we expected a growth by 2.9%. Retail Sales fell by 1.1% year on year, although a drop of 1.5 % was expected.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 107.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 106.60.

Franc

General overview

The USA GDP for the 1st quarter was the main event of Thursday. The release came in at the level of 0,5% q/q (the forecast was 0,7% q/q, the previous value was 1,4% q/q). Initial Jobless Claims number was the focus of our attention as well. The data came in at the level of 257K (the forecast was 260K the previous value was 247K).

The first support lies at 0.9660 and then at 0.9580. The first resistance stands at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9580. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

29.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The Eurozone published the inflation report for Germany (0,2%) and Economic Sentiment Indicator (103,9). In addition, Germany published Unemployment Rate which remained unchanged at 6.2% (in line with the forecasts). Unemployment Change showed -16K.

The UK published Nationwide Housing Prices for April (on a monthly and annual basis). The index showed 0.2% m/m after the previous 0.8% m/m.

The US GDP for the 1st quarter became the main event of the day (the 1st assessment). The index came in at 0.5%, the forecast was 0.7% vs. 1.4% in the 4th quarter. Initial Jobless Claims showed 257K (the previous value was 247K, the forecast was 252K).

The Bank of Japan did not change its monetary policy and did not extend the stimulus rate. The Central Bank is still focused on the increase in the monetary base by 80 trillion yen per year, the deposit rate remained unchanged at - 0.1%.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Unemployment Change in Germany showed -16K, the previous value was -3K. Experts had expected a growth by 4K. Unemployment rate remained at the same level of 6,2%, which corresponded to the forecasts.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1260 soon. The next target will be 1.1150.

Pound

General overview

Nationwide Housing Prices in the UK amounted to 0,2% compared with 0,8% in the previous month. Experts had expected a growth by 0,4%. The US published the GDP report for April. The data came in at the level of 0,5% q/q (the previous value was 1,4% q/q, the forecast was 0,7% q/q).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4760 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen

General overview

The yen grew when the Bank of Japan did not change the interest rates, as expected. The regulator decided not to apply any further negative interest rates. Industrial Production for March rose by 3.6% on monthly basis, while we expected a growth by 2.9%. Retail Sales fell by 1.1% year on year, although a drop of 1.5 % was expected.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 107.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 106.60.

Franc

General overview

The USA GDP for the 1st quarter was the main event of Thursday. The release came in at the level of 0,5% q/q (the forecast was 0,7% q/q, the previous value was 1,4% q/q). Initial Jobless Claims number was the focus of our attention as well. The data came in at the level of 257K (the forecast was 260K the previous value was 247K).

The first support lies at 0.9660 and then at 0.9580. The first resistance stands at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9580. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

02.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

Last Friday was filled with events. The US published Personal Consumption Expenditures (at the forecasted level of 0,1%), Personal Spending (0,1% against the forecasted 0,2%), and Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (77,6 against the forecasted 80,2)

Despite the strong economic growth in the region, the euro lost some gains against the US dollar, amid the weak inflation report in the Eurozone. The index fell to -0.2% y/y in April after the previous 0.0% y/y. The Eurozone GDP grew both in annual and quarterly terms in April: 1.6% after 1.6% before and 0.6% after the previous 0.3%.

The pound stopped growing against the US dollar. The sterling fell after the ambiguous economic data from three-month high. The UK published Net Lending to Individuals and Mortgage Approvals reports (1,883B, 71.360K respectively).

There was a day off in Japan. The USD/JPY pair continued falling after the Bank of Japan decision to maintain its current monetary policy. That was contrary to the market expectations, which expected a further easing.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

According to the Eurostat the Consumer Price index fell by 0.2% in the Eurozone this month. The market expected a decline of 0.1%, after a zero growth in March. Gross Domestic Product grew by 0.6% in the first quarter (forecast 0.4%, previous 0.3%).

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1450. After breaking 1.1450 the buyers may go to 1.1550.

Pound

General overview

The UK government bonds yields grew which increased the attractiveness of the British assets. However, the Britain published a number of weak reports: Net Lending to Individuals increased by 9.3B in March, the expected data was £5.0B.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to the level of 1.4670. We do not exclude the falls to 1.4560.

Yen

General overview

The Bank of Japan did not increase the current easing program, and investors began to leave the Japanese market in panic. The pair dollar/yen sharply fell. The dollar fell when the Fed hinted that it might postpone the rates hike. Last Friday Japan had the day off. Meanwhile, the United States published Core Personal Consumption Expenditure for March (the previous value was 0.2% m/m, the data came in at the forecasted level 0.1% m/m).

The price is finding the first support at 106.60, the next one is at 105.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.40, the next one is at 108.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 106.60 breakthrough down the way to the support 105.80 will be opened.

Franc

General overview

Thomas Jordan (the National Bank of Switzerland Governor) gave a speech last Friday. Switzerland published KOF Leading Indicator (102.7 vs. the forecast 102.8). The USA Personal Income for March came in at 0.4%, Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April showed 89.0 vs. the forecast 90.0.

The first support lies at 0.9580 and then at 0.9500. The first resistance stands at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9580. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

03.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar fell from eight-month lows against the other major currencies. The dollar was under pressure after the political decisions of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve System. The event calendar was empty yesterday amid the Labor Day celebration. According to William Dudley (the New York Fed Governor) the Fed should have more powers to provide emergency financial support for investment firms in case of liquidity problems.

The EUR/USD set new session highs after Manufacturing PMI report in the Eurozone and Germany. The Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone came in at 51.7. Manufacturing PMI in Germany showed 51.8. Mario Draghi gave a speech at the Asian Development Bank conference in Asia. According to him there is no alternative to the soft monetary policy until we see positive prospects of the world economy.

In Britain, the markets did not work amid Early May celebration.

On Monday, the yen rose to new 18-month highs. The dollar fell when the market found out that the Japanese regulator would not intervene the foreign exchange market to weaken the national currency. Nikkei Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.2 versus the previous value of 48.0.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Manufacturing PMI in Germany decreased contrary to our expectations. According to Markit Research Group the indicator showed 51.8 compared with 51.9 in the previous month (seasonally corrected). Experts expected the index at the previous level of 51.9.

The first support lies at 1.1450 and then at 1.1350. The first resistance stands at 1.1550, the next one is at 1.1650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1650.

Pound

General overview

According to the international rating agency S&P, if the UK leaves the EU alliance it might loss its AAA rating. The GBP/USD grew amid the general dollar weakness and speculation that the United Kingdom will remain within the EU. The UK market was closed yesterday amid Early May celebration.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4560. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4880.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4760 and 1.4880.

Yen

General overview

The USA Manufacturing PMI for April rose to 51.8. Traders expected the index to decrease to 51 versus 51.5 in March. Manufacturing PMI in Japan exceeded our expectations and rose to 48.2 vs. the forecast of 48.0.

The price is finding the first support at 105.80, the next one is at 105.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.60, the next one is at 107.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 105.80 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 105.00. We do not exclude the upward bounce to 107.70.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

19.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The Fed minutes publication was the main event of Wednesday. Traders expected positive comments and hints regarding the possible rate hike. According to the minutes most of the fed members believe that the regulator can hike the rate in June if the economy state allows. After the minutes publications the dollar strengthened all over the market.

The Eurozone published the inflation report. The consumer price inflation in the Euro area remained unchanged at - 0.2%.

The pound was supported by the latest poll regarding the upcoming referendum. According to the poll: the number of British people who support staying in the EU are 8% more than those who want to leave. The UK published Unemployment Rate (remained at 5.1%), Average Earnings including Bonus (2.0% vs. expectations 1.7%) and Claimant Count Change (-2.4K vs. previous 14.7K).

The Yen was supported by the news that the Japanese economy is developing at the fastest pace in the first quarter. Still the Japanese currency lost its gains due to investors' expection that the government new measures will stimulate the economy growth.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The US dollar rose against the euro on Wednesday, due to expectations that the Fed would hike the rates. The Euro area published CPI for April (0,2% vs. expectations -0,2%).

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1150, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1040.

Pound

General overview

England published unemployment data: Claimant Count Change (-2.4K vs. forecast 4.0K), Unemployment rate remained unchanged (5,1%), Average Earnings including Bonus (2,0% vs. expectations 1,7%).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4670 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4760.

Yen

General overview

The Japanese preliminary Gross Domestic Product for Q1 strengthened (+ 0,4% vs. forecast 0,1%). The GDP grew by 1,7% during the first quarter (on an annual basis). Hopes that the Bank of Japan will soften the monetary policy further significantly decreased amid the improved statistics in Japan and the United States.

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 110.60, the next one is 111.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

20.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar was traded at a seven-week high against the basket of major currencies. The dollar grew when the April Fed meeting minutes showed that the interest rates could rise as early as the next month. The US published weekly initial jobless claims report (278k vs. expectations 275k). William Dudley (the Fed representative) gave his speech by the end of the trading day. According to Dudley if the economy corresponds to the forecast the regulator shall hike the rate in June or July.

The Central Bank of the European Union published its last meeting minutes. According to the minutes the Central Bank may use any instruments to rise the inflation, as long as they are effective.

The pound continued to strengthen against the dollar when the volume of the UK retail sales rose in April. The volume grew despite a sharp fall of clothing sales, which could be due to off-season weather.

The US dollar rose to a three-week high against the yen. The pair USD / JPY grew against the correction on the Japanese equity markets and after the FOMC minutes publication. Only by the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen decreased.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

In the Bonds market the 10-year German government bonds yield decreased which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets. The ECB published its protocols. The published ECB minutes could not support the euro.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1040. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1150 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1040 will be opened.

Pound

General overview

The volume of Retail Sales in the UK rose last month more than expected. (1,3% vs. expectations 0,5%) Analysts expected the index to rise by 0,5% last month.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4760 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen

General overview

Machinery Orders rose more than expected (5,5% vs. previous -9,2%). The 2-year Treasury bonds yield reached the highest level since March.

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 110.60, 111.40.

Franc

General overview

The Swiss investors' attention was directed to the United States statistics amid an empty macroeconomic calendar. The USA published Initial Jobless Claims report (278k vs. expectations 275k). The USA published Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (-1.8 vs. forecast 3.5).

The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9940, the next one is at 1.0020.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9940. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0020.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

24.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar strengthened when the latest Fed meeting showed that the interest rate may be raised as early as June. The United States did not publish any important report and all investors' attention was directed to Bullard and Williams’ speeches (the FOMC members). According to Bullard the regulator has more reasons to change the rates than to keep the soft policy. According to Williams the financial stability speaks in favor of a rate hike.

The euro fell to a session low when Markit PMI Composite slowed down in May (52.9 vs. expectations 53.2). The index fell despite the steady growth in Germany and France, as other regions showed a decline.

The UK did not publish important news on Monday.

The dollar fell against the yen on Monday amid Tokyo stock market falling. The Japanese trade surplus in April was significantly above our expectations. Manufacturing PMI in Japan declined in May (47.6 vs. previous 48.2). The index declined at the fastest pace in the last three years due to new orders decrease. The data came after the G7 meeting on Saturday, where the US again warned Tokyo about the negative consequences of intervening to weaken the yen.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Manufacturing PMI in Germany rose to a five-month high in May (52.4 vs. previous 51.8, expectations 52.0). Services PMI in Germany rose to a three-month high (55.2 vs. expectations 54.6).

The first support lies at 1.1200 and then at 1.1130. The first resistance stands at 1.1250, the next one is at 1.1300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1200 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1130.

Pound

General overview

On Monday, Britain did not publish important fundamental reports. According to Bonds market the British currency grew strongly: government bonds yield differential (the US and UK) expanded to the highest level in the last month and a half.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4400 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4320 will be opened.

 Yen

General overview

Japan published Trade Balance for April (823.5 B vs. expectations 492.8B). Japan has been showing a positive trade balance for the third month in a row. The 10-year government bonds (the United States and Japan) expanded close to the mark of 200 bp, which increased the attractiveness of the US assets.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 109.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 110.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman


 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the dollar rose to the two-month high against other majors, due to the expectations of the rate hike by the Fed in June. The possible rate hike continued to be a driver for the US currency.

The euro continued to decline when Germany published weak economic sentiment (6.4 vs. previous 11.2). The sentiment worsened amid concerns about the global economy prospects.

The pound strengthened against the dollar when a new poll showed that 55% of Britons supported staying in the EU vs. 42% leaving the EU.

The yen weakened after Taro Aso's statement (Japanese Finance Minister). According to Taro they need to stimulate the economy further if they want to raise the sales tax in April 2017.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Bonds market showed a growing optimism: the 10-years German government bonds yield grew which increased the attractiveness of the European assets. Economic Sentiment in May (the ZEW Institute) was the focus of our attention. The index sharply fell which weakened the euro (6.4 vs. expectations 12.0).

The first support lies at 1.1130 and then at 1.1070. The first resistance stands at 1.1200, the next one is at 1.1250.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 Trading recommendations

The strong support level of 1.1200 break was followed by the pair decrease. If it breaks 1.1130 down it will open the way to the level of 1.1070.

Pound

General overview

The parliamentary hearings on inflation in the UK were the main event in the country. The 10-year government bonds yield in the UK rose by 5 basis points since the last meeting of the Bank.  However, the referendum on membership in EU bears some risk for the country economy.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance 1.4670, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4760.

 Yen

General overview

The USA published New Home Sales Change for April (16,6% vs. previous -1,3%).

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

 Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ targets are the levels of 110.60 and 111.40.

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

26.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

On Wednesday the dollar remained at two-month high against other major currencies. Expectations that the US might raise the base rate in June provided a significant support to the dollar.

Greece reached an agreement with its creditors and unlocked a new tranche in the amount of €10 billion. The agreement eased the concerns over a possible new debt crisis in the Eurozone.

Although no important news were published in the country, the pound kept growing. The only topic that drives the pound is the upcoming referendum. According to the latest poll the number of Britons who prefer to remain in the EU grew. The poll results have been supporting the pound for the second day in a roll.

The dollar showed a growth against the yen. Japanese macroeconomic calendar was empty. The pair was under the influence of technical factors. According to Kuroda (Governor of the Bank of Japan) the country economy continued to recover moderately amid the soft policy of the Central Bank.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Business Climate in Germany grew in May to its highest level in five months. (107.7 vs. expectations 106.8). The published data showed that the largest economy in the Eurozone is getting better.

The first support lies at 1.1130 and then at 1.1070. The first resistance stands at 1.1200, the next one is at 1.1250.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1130 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1070.

Pound

General overview

The pound is approaching its high of the week due to reduced uncertainty about the outcome of the referendum. According to the latest poll the number of Brexit opponents is 55% vs. 42% who want to exit the EU.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4560. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4880.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4760 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4880.

 Yen

General overview

There is 60% possibility that the FOMC will raise the interest rates on June 15th. The positive statistics from the United States supported the10-years government bonds (US and Japan) which increased the attractiveness of the US assets.

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movementб forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 110.60, 111.40.

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

27.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar strengthened its positions amid positive economic reports. According to the latest Fed comments, the US regulator may raise the rates at its meeting in June. In economic news, the United States published Initial Jobless Claims number (268K vs. forecast 275K).

The Eurozone agreement with Greece supported the euro. Greece reached an agreement with its creditors and shall receive a new tranche of loans (10 billion euro).

The second GDP estimate for the first quarter in the UK confirmed that the British economic recovery slowed down. The economy grew by 0,4% in the first quarter from 0,6% in Q4 2015. The British economy faced problems with a weakened growth in emerging markets, especially in China. The upcoming referendum slowed the growth as well.

The dollar remains near in a range waiting for J. Yellen’s speech. The market expects clues from the regulator regarding the possible rate hike in June. The yen grew and deprived the dollar from its latest gains. The Japanese currency growth forced investors to close positions before any potential risk event.

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The 10-year government bonds in Germany declined which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets. The growing "risk appetite" in the world put pressure on the safe assets, such as the single European currency. However the pair euro/dollar strengthened.

The first support lies at 1.1130 and then at 1.1070. The first resistance stands at 1.1200, the next one is at 1.1250.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1250 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1300.

Pound

General overview

The revised GDP data for the first quarter was the main event in the UK. The index remained at the same level at 0.4%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4560, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4480.

 Yen

General overview

The yen stopped to grow on Thursday. Earlier it increased as corporate services price index rose. Corporate Service Price index rose by 0,2% year on year, as expected. The USA published Durable Goods Orders (0,4% vs. expectations 0,3%) and Initial Jobless Claims (268K vs. forecast 275K).

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

 Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 109.00, the next one is 108.20.

Franc

General overview

Yesterday investors' attention was directed to the weekly US labor market report – Initial Jobless Claims (268K vs. forecast 275K). Switzerland published Industrial Production (-2,2% vs. previous -7,4%).

The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9940, the next one is at 1.0020.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9850. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9750.

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman


 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

30.05.2016

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Janet Yellen (the Fed Chairman) gave her speech. According to Janet Yellen the regulator might hike the rates in the upcoming months if the USA economy keeps steadily growing. Yellen’s speech supported the dollar.

Current situation

The pair was correcting the whole previous week. Still the level of 1.1200 did not let it further. After a short consolidation near the level of 1.1200 the pair returned to a decrease. The support is at the level of 1.1070, the resistance lies at 1.1130.

MACD is in a negative area. The histogram is above the signal line. The signal is bullish. RSI indicator approached the oversold level of 30.

Trading recommendations

After J.Yellen’s speech the dollar received a support. We forecast a decrease deep further to the levels of 1.1070 and 1.1000. As the pair is oversold we do not exclude a correction up to 1.1200 where there is a pivot point and the EUR/USD may turn down.

http://savepic.ru/9911634.jpg[/img]

Pound

General overview

The 10-year government bonds yield in the UK decreased. The UK published Consumer Confidence index (-1 vs. previous -3).

Current situation

The GBP/USD strengthened last week and grew above the supports 1.4560 and 1.4670. Still the pair failed to remain near its new month high. The pound fell and broke the mark 1.4670. The support is at the level of 1.4560, the resistance is at 1.4670.

MACD is in a positive area. The indicator kept decreasing. The histogram is below the signal line. The signal is bullish. RSI indicator is above 70 and is overbought.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4560 soon. The next target is the level of 1.4480.

http://savepic.ru/9909586.jpg[/img]

Yen

National Consumer Price Index remained unchanged contrary to expectations. (-0,3% vs. expectations -0.4%).

Current situation

The pair USD/JPY made growth attempts. Still a strong resistance 110.60 did not let the pair to reach new high. The pair was in a range the second part of the week. Still it managed to grow to 110.60 before the trading week end. The resistance is at 109.80, the support is at 110.60.

MACD is on the zero line giving no signals. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued. The first target is the level 110.60, the next one is 111.40.

http://savepic.ru/9902418.jpg[/img]

Franc

General overview

Employment Level index in Switzerland decreased in the last quarter. According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, the index (seasonally corrected) showed 4,880M vs. previous 4,897M.

Current situation

The USD/CHF was in a range 0.9850-0.9940 last week. The pair could grow to 0.9940, but did not break it. The pair corrected downwards to 0.9850 where it turned upwards again. The Janet Yellen’s speech supported the dollar and the pair grew and touched 0.9940. The support comes in at 0.9850, the resistance lies 0.9940.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. MACD kept growing. The signal is bullish. RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 0.9940 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.0020.

http://savepic.ru/9897298.jpg[/img]

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[url=https://www.fortfs.com/en][/url]

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

31.05.2016

Euro

General overview

The dollar rose after J.Yellen’s (the Fed Chairman) comments regarding a possible rate hike in June. The market showed a low volatility due to the holidays in the USA.

Current situation

The EUR/USD tried to grow still it could not break the level of 1.1200. The pair decreased and broke the support 1.1130. The EUR/USD set a new two-month low at 1.1097 on Monday and then started a weak upward correction. The support is at 1.1130, the resistance is at 1.1200.

MACD is in a negative area. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. RSI is neutral.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1130 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1070 will be opened.

Pound

General overview

Monday trading was low volatile due to holidays in the US and UK markets.

Current situation

The pair GBP/USD continued its correction from the recent high near 1.4760. Yesterday the trading was low volatile due to Spring Bank Holiday in the UK. The price was traded at the opening price level almost the whole day. Only by the end of the day the pair slightly increased. The support is at 1.4560, the resistance is at 1.4670.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. The indicator kept decreasing. RSI is neutral.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4560 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.4480.

Yen

The pair continued its recovery. Rumors that Abe (the Prime Minister of Japan ) was likely to postpone the sales tax increase to 2.5 years pressured the yen. The market volatility was reduced amid to the US holiday – Memorial Day.

Current situation

In the absence of majority of traders (due to holidays in the USA and the UK) the dollar started the week with a growth. Even though the pair started the week below the mark 110.60 it grew to the level 111.40 by the end of Monday. The resistance is at the level of 111.40, the support is at 110.60.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is above the signal line.  MACD kept growing. The signal is bullish. Indicator is above 70 and is overbought.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 110.60 breakthrough down the way to the support 109.80 will be opened.

Franc

General overview

KOF published Leading Indicator for April (102.9 vs. previous 102.6 and forecast 102.8).

Current situation

The bulls in the pair USD/CHF could take the dollar upwards, the pair broke the mark of 0.9940. Still the USD/CHF could not hold over the level and started a downward correction. The second part of the day the pair remained below 0.9940. The resistance is at the level of 0.9940, the support is at 0.9850.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD kept decreasing. The signal is bearish. RSI is neutral.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9940. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 1.0020.

CAD

General overview

Canada published Raw Material Price Index that rose more than expected (0.7% vs. expectations 2.2%).

Current situation

The tendency of the pair USD / CAD still looks bullish. The latest growth seems to be a correction from a decrease to the level of 1.2900. The pair managed to grow to 1.3100, where the growth was slowed down. The resistance is at the level of 1.3100, the support is at 1.2900.

MACD is on the zero line giving no signals. The histogram is above the signal line. RSI is neutral.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support levels of 1.2900.

Gold

General overview

The gold continued to decline. The metal decreased due to Fed comments and due to the American regulator minutes publication. The number of traders who believe that the US will hike the rate in June grew that pressured the metal.

Current situation

The gold remained under pressure since last week. On Monday the gold quotes could test the support at around 1220 per ounce. From the level of 1220 the pair began a growth and was able to return some of the latest loss. The resistance is at the level of 1215, the support is at 1200.

MACD is in a negative area. MACD kept decreasing. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. RSI approached the oversold level of 30.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1200, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1180.

DAX30

General overview

The situation with DAX slightly changed on Monday. The index was traded in different directions during the day. DAX was influenced by oil prices decline and a possible rate hike in the United States.

Current situation

The index started the week at the level of 10284. DAX rose and was able to set a new high at 10348, where the index turned down and fell to the opening price zone. The resistance is at the level of 10350, the support is at 10175.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line.  MACD kept decreasing. The signal is bearish. RSI reached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 10350 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 10175.

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

01.06.2016

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB meeting is the main event in the Eurozone this week. We believe that the European regulator will not make any changes to its monetary policy.

Current situation

The pair attempted to recover on Tuesday. After a short consolidation on Monday, the pair returned the part of the previous losses. The pair returned to sales by the end of trades and tested the level of 1.1130.

The resistance is at 1.1200, the support is at 1.1130.

The MACD histogram is in a negative zone, above its signal line. The MACD decreased giving a signal to sell. RSI is in a neutral zone. The indicator does not give clear signals.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1130, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1070.

Pound

General overview

The pound resumed its decline. In general, the dollar remained strong against the pound after Janet Yellen’s speech last Friday. The market expects new drivers for a further movement.

Current situation

The pair declined on Tuesday. After a false breakout of 1.4670 the pair fell to 1.4480.
 The resistance is at the level of 1.4560, the support is at 1.4480.

MACD is in the negative zone below the signal line. The indicator continued its decline showing a sell signal. The RSI signal line is close to the oversold zone.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4480 and 1.4400.

Yen

The pair returned above the level of 110.40 amid the dollar growth. Abe (the Prime Minister of Japan) decided to postpone the increase in sales tax to 2.5 years.

Current situation

The quotes made attempts to break through the level of 111.40. The pair was in a narrow range of 110.60 - 111.33 all day. The pair tested the level of 110.60 by the end of the trades.
 The resistance is at the level of 111.40, the support is at 110.60.
MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD kept decreasingg. The signal is bearish. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 110.60, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 109.80.

Franc

General overview

The pair continued its growth. We believe that the pair shall become more volatile before the FED meeting in June.

Current situation

The market still looks bullish, despite the downward correction in the beginning of the week. The pair tested 0.9940, but failed to consolidate on it and fell. The USD/CHF bounced off the level 0.9900 upwards.

The resistance is at the level of 0.9940, the support is at 0.9850.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD kept decreasing. The signal is bearish. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9940. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 1.0020.

CAD

General overview

We remain bearish on the outlook for the currency. If the Canadian economy continues weakening, the price may decline deeper.

Current situation

The pair grew on Tuesday and reached the resistance 1.3100. Its further movement depends whether the pair will break it or will bounce off from the resistance 1.3100. The resistance is at the level of 1.3100, the support is at 1.2900.

MACD is on the zero line giving no signals. The histogram is above the signal line. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.3100 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.3200.

Brent

General overview

The oil prices became volatile on the eve of the OPEC meeting on the 2nd of June. We believe that OPEC will not change anything in exporting policies.

Current situation
 
The market looks bullish at the higher timeframes. The oil grew the whole Tuesday and tested the level of 50.50. Then the price fell to the level of 49.60. The resistance is at the level of 50.50, the support is at 49.60.

The MACD histogram is in a positive zone. The histogram is above the signal line. The MACD continues to grow and gives a buy signal. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

Trading recommendations

The oil prices can grow to the resistance level of 50.50. After breaking 50.50 the buyers may go to 51.50.

DAX30

General overview

Yesterday, the European stock market declined. The German DAX 30 fell by 0,61% due to the Volkswagen shares fall. The shares fell amid the latest automaker’s statement where he reported about 19,3% profit decrease.

Current situation

DAX moved in different directions on Tuesday. The index began trading from the maximum point reached on Monday – 10350. In the European session the index DAX 30 dropped and declined to 10175. The resistance is at the level of 10350, the support is at 10175.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD kept decreasing. The signal is bearish. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 10350 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 10520 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

03.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The ECB meeting was the main event in the Eurozone this week. The European regulator left the rate unchanged. The ECB meeting results weakened the euro, at the same time the strong unemployment statistics in the USA supported the dollar. As the result the pair EUR/USD fell.

Current situation

The euro fell on Thursday due to the macroeconomic statistics in Europe and the United States. The pair could not hold at the level of 1.1200, and dropped down. The level of 1.1155 became the local minimum of the day. We believe that sellers are back and they will take the pair further down. The resistance is at 1.1200, the support is at 1.1130.

MACD is in a positive area, close to the zero line. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. MACD kept decreasing showing a sell signal.  RSI approached the oversold level of 30.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1130 soon. The next target will be le level of 1.1070.

Pound

General overview

The British currency is still volatile after the latest poll regarding the UK membership in the EU. According to the poll the number of Britons who want leaving the EU grew vs. those who prefer staying in it.

Current situation

The British currency remained in the flat after a recent sharp decrease. The pair remained in the range 1.4400 – 1.4480. The market needs a break to recover from the losses. The resistance is at the level of 1.4480, the support is at 1.4400.

MACD indicator is in a negative area. The signal line is in a histogram. The signal is bearish. The indicator RSI is oversold.

Trading recommendations

We expect the flat will be continued.

Yen

General overview

The dollar in the USD/JPY fell when Japan postponed the planned sales tax increase. The Japanese government decided to move from the monetary policy easing to economic stimulus.

Current situation

The yen continued falling. The pair set a new local low level at the mark 108.80. The pair broke the level of 109.00 and stopped to consolidate. The resistance is at the level of 109.00, the support is at 108.20.

MACD is in a negative area. The signal line is in a histogram. MACD showing sell signal. RSI reached the oversold level of 30.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the flat will be continued. We do not exclude the growth to 109.00.

Franc

General overview

The Initial Jobless Claims number decreased in the USA. That is a good sign that showed that the USA economy kept recovering. The USA statistics supported the dollar that recovered and returned some of its previous losses.

Current situation

The pair recovered and returned some of the lost positions. The pair grew from the mark 0.9850 to 0.9900. The pair just tested the level 0.9900 and did not move higher. We believe that the pair shall return to the growth. The resistance is at the level of 0.9940, the support comes at 0.9850.

MACD indicator is in a negative area. MACD keeps growing. The signal line is in a histogram. The signal line of RSI bounced off the oversold level of 30.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 0.9940. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0020.

CAD

General overview

If the USA regulator postpones the rates hike the dollar may weaken (some of the economic indicators do not match the expected level). Stephen Poloz (the Canadian Bank Governor) gave his speech. Still his statement had a minor effect on the pair.

Current situation

The pair remained in the flat and was traded near the level of 1.3100. The USD/CAD moved in different ways on Thursday. The local low mark is the level of 1.3070, a day high lies at 1.3145. The resistance is at the level of 1.3100, the support is at 1.2900.

MACD indicator is in a positive area. The signal line is above the histogram. The indicator is decreasing showing a sell signal. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3100, the next one is 1.3200. We do not exclude the falls to 1.2900.

AUD

General overview

The Australian dollar fell after the retail sales report in Australia. The index came worse that expected. The RBA may low its interest rates to 1.0% from the current 1.75%. The next RBA meeting will take place on 7th of June.

Current situation

The Australian dollar remained in a flat. The pair was traded near the mark of 0.7270. From a technical point of view the pair looks bearish. The resistance is at the level of 0.7270, the support lies at 0.7140.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD keeps decreasing. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 0.7140, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 0.7040. We do not exclude the growth to 0.7270.

Brent

General overview

The Brent quotes grew after the OPEC meeting in Vienna. The OPEC decided not to limit its production and left the quotes at the same level.

Current situation

The Brent showed active trades yesterday. The OPEC meeting was the main driver for the oil quotes. The pair decreased at the European session and stopped above the support of 48.60. The support became the pivot point where the Brent oil grew to the resistance of 50.50. The resistance is at the level of 50.50, the support is at 49.60.

MACD indicator is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 50.50 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 51.50.

DAX30

General overview

On Thursday, the European stock indexes showed a mixed background. Investors were cautious before the monthly decisions of the European Central Bank and preferred to stay away from any serious actions. The index grew by 0.03% during the European session.

Current situation

The market is still bearish. Yesterday the index tested the strong support of 10175. DAX 30 consolidated above the support 10175.. The resistance is at the level of 10350, the support is at 10175.

MACD indicator is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. The MACD is declining, the signal is bearish. RSI approached the oversold level of 30.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 10350. After breaking 10350 the buyers may go to 10520.

Gold

General overview

We believe that the dollar can keep growing if the FED continues making aggressive statements. The strong dollar shall pressure all risky assets including the gold. The US regulator has been showing signals of his readiness to increase the rates further at the next meeting.

Current situation

The gold lost some of its positions yesterday. The pair broke the level 1215 downwards. The pair did not move deep and stopped at 1209.50. The metal needs new drivers to continue its moving. The resistance is at the level of 1215, the support is at 1200.

MACD is in a negative area, the histogram is above the signal line. MACD kept increasing. The signal is bullish. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1200 and 1180.

Dow Jones

General overview

The major indexes in the USA recovered and returned some of the losses which they had suffered after the Production PMI growth in the US. The PMI index has been growing the third month in a row. The Dow Jones index rose by the end of the trading day.

Current situation

The index recovered yesterday. Dow Jones grew from the level 17686 to 17815. The index looks bullish. The resistance is at the level of 17900, the support is at 17740.

MACD is in a negative area. MACD increased. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 17900 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 18000 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

06.06.2016

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The weak Nonfarm Payrolls can postpone the Fed rate hike.

Current situation

The pair grew last Friday. The EUR/USD broke the levels of 1.1200, 1.1250, 1.1300 and approached the mark of 1.3730. The pair looks bullish. The resistance is at 1.1370, the support is at 1.1300.

MACD is in a positive area, the signal line is in a histogram. MACD is growing, its signal is bullish. RSI reached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1370 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1450.

Pound

General overview

The published Services PMI for May in the UK did not effect the pound. Still the pair grew after the weak Nonfarm Payrolls in the USA.

Current situation

The pair grew from the support of 1.4400. The pair broke the resistance 1.4480. The buyers could test the mark of 1.4560. Still the growing impulse faded out and the pair returned below the level. The resistance is at the level of 1.4560, the support is at 1.4480.

MACD is in a negative area. The histogram is above the signal line. The indicator MACD is giving a buy signal. RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

We believe the pair will remain in the flat.

Yen

General overview

Japanese currency finished last week in a green zone due to renewed discussions regarding differences among the US and Japanese monetary policies.

Current situation

The interest to the yen grew after a weak Non-Farms report. The pair fell and broke the levels 108.20 and 107.40. The resistance is at the level of 107.40, the support is at 106.60.

MACD is in a negative area. The histogram is above in the signal line. MACD kept decreasing. The indicator is showing a sell signal. The indicator RSI is below 30 and is oversold.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 106.60, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 105.80.

Franc

General overview

The weak Nonfarm Payrolls could postpone the rate hike in June. The weak unemployment indicator confirmed that the USA economy slowed down.

Current situation

After the latest unemployment news in the USA the pair decreased. The pair consolidated below 0.9850. The resistance is at the level of 0.9850, the support comes at 0.9750.

MACD indicator is in a negative area. The signal line is in the histogram. MACD is decreasing. The indicator RSI is oversold.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 0.9750. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9660.

CAD

General overview

Trade Balance deficit decreased in Canada in April, at the same time the export grew.

Current situation

The pair USD/CAD was in the range below 1.3100. By the end of Friday trades, the pair sharply declined towards the support of 1.2900 still the decline stopped above this level. The resistance is at 1.3100, the support comes in at 1.2900. The resistance is at the level of 1.3100, the support is at 1.2900.

MACD is in a negative zone, the signal line is above the histogram. MACD crossed the zero line downwards. MACD gives a sell signal. RSI is close to the oversold zone.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.2900 soon. The next target will be 1.2800.

AUD

General overview

The AUD fell by 6% against the USD when the RBA lowered its rate in May. Nevertheless the Australian dollar grew after the weak unemployment data in the USA. The Service PMI in Australia also supported the AUD.

Current situation

The pair AUD/USD grew last Friday. The price broke the resistance of 0.7270 and consolidated above it. The resistance is at 0.7400, the support area lies at 0.7270.

MACD is in a positive zone. The histogram is above its signal line. The indicator continues to grow and gives a signal to buy. RSI reached an overbought zone.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 0.7400 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 0.7530 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Brent

General overview

The Brent recovered after the OPEC meeting results. The OPEC could not set the limit in the oil production. Still the Brent returned to a decrease.

Current situation

The Brent tried to recover and grew to 50.50. However, the quotes did not test this level, the price bounced off to 49.60. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.60.

MACD indicator is in a positive area. The histogram is above the signal line. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 48.60. We do not exclude the growth to 50.50.

DAX30

General overview

The Bonds Markets decreased in the Eurozone amid the weak unemployment data in the USA. The weak Nonfarm Payrolls report lowered traders’ expectations regarding the rate hike in the USA in June.

Current situation

The German DAX 30 index was traded above the level of 10175. The index made attempts to grow. Still, the bearish sentiment grew by the end of traders and the index broke the level down. The resistance is at 10175, the support come in at 10000.

MACD indicator is on the ground level. The histogram is below the signal line. RSI is in a neutral zone. The indicator does not show clear signals.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 10000, the next target will be 9760.

Gold

General overview

The safe assets quotes grew last Friday amid a weak Nonfarm Payrolls report in the USA.

Current situation

The gold was traded below 1215 before Non-Farms report publication. The metal grew after and broke the marks 1215 and 1235. The resistance is at the level of 1215, the support is at 1200.

MACD is in a positive area. MACD kept growing. RSI is overbought.

Trading recommendations

The price can grow to the resistance level of 1260.

Dow Jones

General overview

American futures showed the negative sentiment. American Bonds market was disappointed by the weak unemployment data in the USA.

Current situation

The index fell last Friday and tried to break the level of 17740. The index could recover by the trades end and consolidate over the level. The resistance is at the level of 17900, the support is at 17740.

MACD is on the zero line giving no signals. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal as well.

Trading recommendations

The index Dow Jones may remain in a flat.

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

07.06.2016

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Janet Yellen’s speech became the main event of Monday. According to Janet Yellen the weak Non-Farms raised the regulator’s concerns. The release showed signs of new jobs growth slowdown.

Current situation

The euro remained at the local high that it had reached last week. The pair spent the first day of the week near the level of 1.1370. The trading was low volatile. The pair EUR/USD may bounce off soon from 1.1370 .The resistance is at 1.1370, the support is at 1.1300.

MACD is in a positive area, its signal is bullish. RSI reached the overbought level of 70. RSI shows a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential targets are 1.1370 and 1.1300.

Pound

General overview

According to Janet Yellen (the head of the Federal Reserve) if the UK leaves the EU that can cause significant economical circumstances.

Current situation

The pair tried to break the level 1.4400 but failed and remained in a short range 1.4400 – 1.4480. Traders seem to take a pause after the last week decrease. The resistance is at the level of 1.4480, the support is at 1.4400.

MACD indicator is in a negative area, its signal line is below a histogram. MACD kept growing. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4480, the next one is 1.4560.

Yen

General overview

The Fed Chairman noted in her speech that the current monetary policy was moderately challenging. The regulator expects further progress on its goals. The Fed will closely monitor any changes in the labor market.

Current situation

The pair made attempts to break the level of 106.60. The dollar reversed some losses by the end of Monday. The USD/JPY broke the level 106.60 upwards and tried to get hold over it. The resistance is at the level of 107.40, the support is at 106.60.

MACD is in a negative area. MACD kept growing. RSI approached the oversold level of 30 and bounced off it.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 107.40 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 108.20 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Franc

General overview

The Janet Yellen’s speech (the Federal Reserve Chairman) became the main event of Monday. The dollar slightly recovered against major currencies in anticipation of her comments. According to Janet Yellen the prospects of the US economy is very uncertain.

Current situation

The pair was decreasing the whole day yesterday. Sellers could take the price down. The pair USD/CHF broke the level 0.9750 and touched 0.9700. The new local low is at 0.9680. The price failed to go deeper and bounced off the support 0.9700. The resistance is at the level of 0.9850, the support comes at 0.9750.

The indicator MACD is in a negative area. The signal line is in the histogram. The indicator is below 30 and is oversold.  RSI shows a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850.

Brent

General overview

According to Janet Yellen the price of oil keeps the inflation at low levels. Oil prices began to grow.

Current situation

The Brent still looks bearish. The quotes bounced off 49.60 and tested the mark 50.50. The black gold did not move further and remained at the reached mark. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.60.

MACD is in a positive area. MACD kept growing. RSI approached  the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance 50.50, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 51.50.

Gold

General overview

On Monday, the gold futures rose to two-week high in anticipation of Janet Yellen’s speech. Traders expected to get clues regarding the next interest rates hike in the US.

Current situation

The gold remained in a flat on Monday between the levels 1248 - 1239. The technical picture is uncertain. The quotes have recently broken 1215 and 1235. However the price failed to grow further and stopped near the mark 1250. The resistance is at the level of 1260, the support is at 1235.

The indicator MACD is in a negative area, its signal line is in the histogram. The indicator is giving a buy signal. RSI reached the overbought level of 70 and shows a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 1235.

DAX30

General overview

The news that the USA might not raise the rates this summer became an important driver of optimism on global bonds markets. The European stock markets closed in the green zone, supported by growth of shares of energy and raw material producers.

Current situation

The index DAX 30 remained in a flat. The index was traded between the levels of 10077 – 10158. The resistance is at 10175, the support come in at 10000.

The indicator MACD is in a negative area. The MACD signal line is in the histogram. The indictor kept decreasing yesterday. RSI reached the oversold level of 30 and bounced off it.

Trading recommendations

The index can grow to the resistance level of 10175. After breaking 10175 the buyers may go to 10350.

Dow Jones

General overview

If we keep hearing the Fed’s soft statements and if the regulator declares the risk of further economic decline the US dollar may get under pressure once again. The dollar decrease will cause a new wave of purchases in the Bonds market.

Current situation

The Dow Jones kept its bearish movement. The index broke and consolidated over the resistance at 17900 on Monday. The resistance is at the level of 18000, the support is at 17900.

MACD is in a positive area and is growing. RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 18000.

 

Nasdaq

General overview

The external environment was positive for the index. Nasdaq rose by 0.26%. The major US stock indices showed a moderate growth.

Current situation

The index Nasdaq was in a flat during the European session of Monday. The index started to grow by the end of Monday. It bounced from the mark 4506 and grew to the way of 4550. The index looks bullish. The resistance is at the level of 4550, the support is at 4500.

The indicator MACD is in a positive area and keeps decreasing. RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

The index is likely to go to the support level of 4500.

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

09.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The positive macroeconomic statistics in the Eurozone helped investors to find the strength and the desire for a new wave of euro purchases. There were no major events on the schedule on Wednesday.

Current situation

The overall outlook remains bullish. Buyers could push the dollar higher the resistance 1.1370. The price reached the round level of 1.1400 yesterday. The resistance is at 1.1450, the support is at 1.1370.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below its signal line. MACD decreased giving a sell signal.

RSI reached the overbought level of 70. According to the indicator the price may change its direction soon. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) at the daily time-frame. That is a bullish signal.

Trading recommendations

If the pair keeps growing it will reach the level of 1.1450 soon. Nevertheless the pair is overbought and we may expect a correction soon.

Pound

General overview
On Wednesday, manufacturing PMI supported the pound. The index showed the maximum growth in nearly four years (1.6% vs. previous -0.4%). Still the pound is under pressure because of the upcoming referendum.

Current situation

The pair GBP/USD showed volatile trades on Wednesday. The pair could set a new local high at the level of 1.4600 on the European session. However, the pair could not fixate its gains above the level of 1.4560 and returned on it. The resistance lies at 1.4560, the support is at 1.4480.

MACD crossed the zero line upwards. The signal line is in the histogram. MACD decreased. That is a sell signal. RSI approached the overbought level of 70 and bounced off. The Moving Average (200) limits the pound growth on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

We are still bearish middle term. The break below 1.4480 should send this market looking for the 1.4400 level.

Yen

General overview

According to the statistics the volume of Chinese imports in May exceeded market expectations. The news reinforced hopes for a stabilization of the Chinese economy, despite the greater-than-expected fall in exports. The Chinese statistics weakened the investors' appetite for risk and supported the dollar in the pair USD/JPY.

Current situation

The tone is still negative in the market. The yen continued strengthening and the pair approached the recent lows at 106.35. The resistance is at 107.00, the support is at 106.00.MACD indicator is in a negative area. 

MACD stopped its growing and returned to a decrease. That is a bearish signal. RSI is still near the oversold level of 30. The pair is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour graphic. The pair is on its historical lows at the daily chart. The pair was here last time in 2014.

Trading recommendations

From the technical point of view the pair is oversold. According to the indicators RSI and MA we may see a correction soon. The pair USD/JPY may decrease further to 106.00 where it can pivot upwards.

AUD

General overview

The Australian dollar came under pressure when Home loans index in Australia rose less than expected, as investments declined after rising in April.

Current situation

The Australian dollar grew during the course of the day setting new local high at 0.7480. The tone is still positive in the market. The resistance stands at 0.7500, the support lies at 0.7400.

MACD is in a positive area. MACD stopped growing yesterday. That is a buy signal. The indicator RSI is above 70 and is overbought. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. 
That is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

We feel comfortable taking long positions. The price may reach 0.7500 today. According to the indicators (MACD, RSI) the pair AUD/USD is overbought. In addition it has moved far from MA that suggests a correction.

GOLD

General overview
The Gold quotes continued to rise due to the falling of the dollar. The dollar weakened when the market reduced its expectations that the Fed would hike the rates in June.

Current situation
Traders pushed the gold higher yesterday. The metal grew from 1243 to the mark of 1263. The price touched the resistance at 1260. The metal grew by 1.32% during the course of the day. The resistance is at 1260, the support lies at 1235.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD is growing showing a buy signal. RSI is in the overbought level of 70. The pair pushed from Moving Average (100) on the daily chart. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The MA (200) is a support on the daily chart now.

Trading recommendations

The price stopped at 1260. Should that level break up and the price will grow to 1280. Otherwise we will see its move down to the support 1235.

Brent

General overview

Yesterday the oil prices grew on speculation that the weekly Crude Oil Stocks change may show the decline. In economic news, the index showed a decrease as expected.

Current situation

The oil quotes continued their growth. The price set a new high at 52.50. The oil trend looks bullish. The resistance comes in at 52.50, the support lies at 51.50.

MACD is in a positive area, its signal line is in the histogram. MACD kept growing, that is a bullish sign.
Still MACD shows a divergence on the 4 hour time frame. RSI reached the overbought level of 70. The Brent quotes are above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The price is close to the historical highs at the daily chart – the mark of 54.00.

Trading recommendations
We are still bullish on the oil. We assume that the upward trend will be continued. The break above 52.50 should send this market looking for the 53.00 level.

Dax30

General overview

The European stocks fell on Wednesday after rising on the results of the previous two sessions. The German DAX lost 0.71%. Traders took a wait and see position, focusing on the important events coming this month. Thus, the Fed shall hold its regular meeting on 15st of June. The UK will hold a referendum regarding its membership in the EU on June 23 rd.

Current situation

The index decreased yesterday. The price fell from 10275 to 10175. The resistance comes at 10350, the support is at 10175. MACD is on the centerline, giving no signals. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

Trading recommendations

We expect a decrease. The break below 10175 should send this market looking for the 1000 level.

SP500

General overview

The S&P500 jumped by 0.26% due to the oil quotes growth in 2016 and the weakening of the dollar, giving the S & P 500. The index came close to the record highs that were set in May, 2015.

Current situation

SP500 remained in a flat. Buyers could not break the resistance of 2120. The resistance stands at 2120, the support lies at 2100.

MACD is in a positive area. The signal line is above the histogram. The indicator shows a divergence on the 4 hour chart. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. Moving Average (50) acts as a support. The index is close to the historical highs at the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remains bullish. Once we break above the 2120 level, we think that the 2130 level will be next.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman