ValdisTF Posted January 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 27.01.2016 Fundamental analysis The United States can please traders with a Conference Board positive report. The January Michigan University consumer confidence indicator came in at fresh 6-month high amid real incomes growing expectations. The average earnings growth was 2.5% at the end of 2015, with an inflation of 0.7%. Thus, the population real incomes increased by 1.78% while the real incomes increased by 0.99% in 2014. Positive data would support the US currency and we do not ignore the "risky assets" demand dynamics. The euro significant strengthening against the dollar was the result of several factors. The very first one is the upcoming Fed meeting today. Traders believe that the FED will not increase the refinancing rate and that decision may weaken the dollar. The Fed will monitor the macro-economic dynamics that demonstrates albeit sluggish, but a growth. The second factor is government debt securities yields growth where the three month bills yield increased from 0.255% to 0.305%. We think that bulls can take a break and we will see a gradual pound decline. The Bank of England left the rate unchanged. Mark Carney, the Bank Governor said that there was no reason to do it. They are ready to reconsider the current situation when the country economy shows a stable growth. The yen continued to strengthen against the US dollar when the Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso supported the Bank position and its intention to act if needed. The main Bank of Japan target is the inflation rate of 2%. Aso expressed the hope that the regulator would continue its efforts to achieve the price stability, taking into account the economic and price conditions. Technical analysis Euro General overview The IFO indicator has dropped to its lowest level in eleven months which is a negative factor for the single European currency. This indicator is closely correlated with the Germany GDP dynamics, and its negative data is the first wake-up call for the market. The Germany economic growth slowdown is always painful perceived by traders. We also note the mechanical engineering and the automotive industries rising pessimism, mainly due to low exports. The first support resides at 1.0800 and then it goes at 1.0730. The first resistance comes in at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-sen is showing a horizontal movement, the Tenkan-sen is heading downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The move below 1.0730 will signal the presence of sellers. The price may reach 1.0630 soon. The level of 1.0925 is an obstacle for the pair’s growth. Shall the EUR/USD breaks that level the pair could escalate up to 1.1050. Pound General overview The average earnings slowdown coupled with the oil prices collapse help to reduce the short-term inflation expectations. The pound strengthening against the euro during 2015 is putting strong pressure on the British industry. The unemployment rate fell to the level of 5.1%, while the Cable devalued against the euro by 7.5% in the past two months which creates a positive foundation for the second quarter of this year. The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The first resistance is at 1.4350, the next one is at 1.4470. We have a weak buy signal. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen is horizontal. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The buying scenario may become a reality soon. Buyers can leave the Ichimoku cloud behind heading to the resistance levels: 1.4470, 1.4650. In the event that the sellers manage to force below 1.4080 the downward movement will be continued to the 40th figure. Yen General overview The United States can please traders with the positive Consumer Confidence data amid real incomes growing. The real income growth rate peaked in the last nine years which together with low unemployment (5%) contribute to the consumer optimism growth. However, the bond market is showing the USA and Japanese government bond yield differential decrease which does not allow counting on strong price growth. The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.80. The first resistance lies at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 119.20. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 120.40 is possible. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted January 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 28.01.2016 Fundamental analysis The market was able to develop immunity towards the Chinese stock market bad news. The Chinese index again lost more than 6%, still only the gold reacted to this news with a growth the rest currencies remained at their positions. The US economic data came out neutral. The January service sector business activity index came in at 53.7 versus the December value of 54.3. The forecast was 53.9. The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board showed an increase from 96.3 to 98.1. As expected the Fed statements were quite "dovish". The regulator is concerned about the further economy development and does not exclude the further rate hike in March. Investors stake on the dollar strengthening. According to GfK the Germany consumer confidence index surfaced a decline from 9.4 to 9.3 in February. According to the BBA the December Mortgage Approvals showed 43.975Kwith the expectations of 45K. The December New Home Sales came in at 0.544M. The Japanese yen is growing on expectations that the Friday Central Bank meeting will be a soft one. Technical analysis Euro General overview Analysts expect a bearish sentiment to return soon for two reasons. The US corporations pleased investors with the fourth quarter positive report. Secondly, we cannot ignore the oil market dynamics – the Brent and WTI rose by 5% the other day that is possible only in case of risky assets high demand. All the traders' attention was focused on the Fed decision regarding the rate. As it was expected the regulator left the rate unchanged. Still the market is full with rumors that the rate hike will take place the first spring month. The first support resides at 1.0800 and then it goes at 1.0730. The first resistance comes in at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. There is a weak sell signal. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Kijun-sen is showing a horizontal movement, the Tenkan-sen is heading upwards crossing the Tenkan-sen. The pair shall advance the north until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. Trading recommendations We expect a flat. The further pair movement depends on what the support or the resistance line the pair breaks. The move below 1.0730 is a bearish signal. The level of 1.0925 break may send the pair up to 1.1050. Pound General overview We think that there three reasons to long. We expect the positive mortgage lending data amid the labor market positive trend. According to the Markit the December construction industry also showed growth which confirms the positive trend. The UK low inflation (0.2% in 2015) contributes to a real income increase and is a positive factor for the real estate market. The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The first resistance is at 1.4350, the next one is at 1.4470. The sell signal got stronger as the price is moving from the Cloud. The price is still in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are both horizontal. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing. Trading recommendations Daily and weekly technical studies remain bearish. Shall the pair break below 1.4080 the downward movement will be continued to the 40th figure. The upward targets are the resistance levels: 1.4470, 1.4650. Yen General overview We should expect the pair’s growth amid "risk appetite" growth among investors. The US corporations positive quarterly reports returned "bulls" on the market. The stock market and high-yield cross-rates growth indicate carry trade positions increase and in this regard the yen will be under pressure as the funding currency. The debt market also confirms the USD/JPY upward trend: the US and Japanese government bonds profitability differential are being expanded. The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.80. The first resistance lies at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 119.20. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 120.40 is possible. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted January 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 29.01.2016 Fundamental analysis The US Federal Reserve is concerned about the financial market turbulence. The Fed statements did not have any effect neither on the EUR/USD pair nor the other assets. The EUR/USD trades were restrained yesterday - investors continue to evaluate the Fed two-day meeting results, the first one in the new year. Germany has surfaced the inflation preliminary data whose growth rate may accelerate from 0.3% to 0.5%. The ECB is cautious about its quantitative easing program, as the Germany inflation dynamics is relatively well. The data came in at the forecasted median. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar showed a growth. The Initial Jobless Claims number showed - 278000. The forecast was 282000. The labor market is relatively stable, even though all visible signs of long-term unemployment growth are seen which has a negative impact on the overall unemployment level. In addition, the expected durable goods declined by 0.6%. However the decline was 5.1%. Yesterday the UK 4th quarter GDP was published. The GDP growth rate was 2.27% for the first nine months of 2015, as it was forecasted. It is worth noting that the first nine months of 2014 the growth rate was 2.87% which indicates the UK economic slowdown phase. The data came in at the forecasted median. The pair pound/dollar increased by the end of the trades. The USD/JPY pair is still trading in a narrow channel. However, concerns that the Bank of Japan will announce the next mitigation measures at the end of the two-day meeting are putting pressure on the yen. Japan published the retail sales which decreased by 1.1% in comparison to the same period in 2014. Technical analysis Euro General overview The US Federal Reserve left the rate unchanged. The regulator noted the short-term inflation expectations decreased amid the low energy prices. According to the Fed the rate may be increased in March, still its growth depends on the incoming macroeconomic statistics. The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The targets are the levels of 1.1050 and 1.1150. Pound General overview The UK 4th quarter GDP was the main event this week for the country. The industrial production decline and the negative trade balance alongside with the high pound value are negative factors that traditionally impede the economic growth. The fourth quarter service PMI also showed a slowdown. The GDP data came in at the forecasted median: 0.5% (q/q) and 1.9% (y/y). The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480. There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing Trading recommendations We expect the 1.4400 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4480. Yen General overview The Bank of Japan will announce the monetary policy meeting results after which we can see the USD/JPY upward trend acceleration. Low energy prices may force the monetary authorities to revise their inflation forecasts and give a hint to investors to the possible further monetary policy easing. As the market is acting proactively, we can assume that many investors may long in advance. The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.80. The first resistance stands at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential targets are 119.20, 120.40. If the price falls it will get to 118.40 and 117.80. Franc General overview The Fed left the interest rate in the previous target range of 0.25-0.50% per annum. The rate was changed last month and the market has not seen any noticeable effect yet. The Fed accompanying statement was quite soft, although the regulator promised to raise the rates further. The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 0.9960. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0280. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidaing. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target – 1.0100. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted January 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 01.02.2016 Fundamental analysis The United States data disappointed traders and became the reason of its weakening. The Initial Jobless Claims number fell to 294 thousand. The Continuing Jobless Claims increased from 2.219 million to 2.268 million which again increases the unemployment risk. The preliminary Germany inflation data coincided with the forecasts, having confirmed the assumption about the price growth acceleration from 0.3% to 0.5%. The Germany retail sales growth rate is slowing from 2.3% to 1.5%. The trades on the pair EUR/USD closed with a decrease. According to the UK National Bureau of Statistics the previous year 4th quarter GDP increased compared with the previous quarter. The economy managed to show a growth of 0.5% in Q4, while the same indicator expanded by only 0.4% in Q3. The UK economy has grown by 2.2% for the entire 2015. By the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD showed a decrease. The Bank of Japan is determined to launch the new monetary stimulus. Unexpectedly, the regulator introduced the negative deposits interest rates. This decision was taken due to the low inflation level and the global financial markets instability. The Central Bank lowered the commercial banks deposits rate to 0.1% from 0.1%. According to the Bank statement, the regulator is ready to go for an even greater rates decrease, if it considers this measure necessary. The asset purchase program amount was maintained at 80 trillion yen. The pair USD/JPY sharply increased. Technical analysis Euro General overview Due to the lack of important macroeconomic statistics we shall pay our attention to the world's leading stock exchanges dynamics. Last Friday investors' attention was focused on two reports: the first euro area inflation estimate (the data came in at the forecasted median 0.4% y/y) and the US GDP Quarterly Report. The fourth quarter US GDP preliminary data was expected with strong slowdown from 2.1% to 0.8% but it came in at the level of 0,7%. The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations It may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.0800 and 1.0730. Pound General overview The UK GDP increased by 2.2% in 2015. The economic slowdown is a negative factor for the currency, but the pound was in a correction phase to the downward trend and the price growth may be continued. According to the USA GDP leading indicators we should not expect positive data. The release came worse then it was expected: 0,7% against the forecasted 0,8%. The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320. There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential target are 1.4320, 1.4400. Yen General overview Low energy prices help to reduce the Japanese inflation expectations. The weak retail sales indicate the personal consumption volume reduction which is a negative factor for the economy as a whole as well as for the inflation, in particular. The Central Bank is under pressure from weak economic indicators and the Japanese Government has taken to some extent non-standard solution to low the rate to 0.1% and to maintain the redeemed assets volume at 80 trillion yen a year. The first support resides at 120.40, the next is at 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.20. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 121.30 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.20 will be opened after this breakthrough. Franc General overview By the end of the trades the dollar strengthened against the franc. The United States news flow disappointed traders and contributed to the dollar weakening. Thus, initial jobless claims number fell to 294 thousand. The Continuing Jobless Claims index has increased from 2.219 million to 2.268 million, which again increases the unemployment risk. The durable goods orders decreased by 5.1%, although the market expected a decrease by 0.6%. The price is finding the first support at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0280, the next one is at 1.0370. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target – 1.0280. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0370. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 02.02.2016 Fundamental analysis The USA contradictory statistics could not undermine the dollar's strength. According to the preliminary data, the USA economy grew by only 0.7% in the fourth quarter against the forecast of + 0.8% and the previous value of 2.0%. Meanwhile, the personal consumption expenditures index rose in line with expectations at 1.2%. The Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 92.0 against the forecast of 93.0 and the previous value of 93.3. In general, the economic picture is rather mixed. The recent Fed announcements that the country economy slowed down prepared the market to weak GDP data. The January euro zone moderately positive inflation release cooled the bears' ardor who tried to play the card of a future monetary policy easing by the ECB in March. The US manufacturing sector ISM was also expected with negative data. The index came in at the level of 48.2 against the forecasted 48.1. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar strengthened. According to the CBI the negative industrial orders balance dynamics signaled that the production sector PMI report could be worse than the consensus forecast. However the data came in better then forecasted median: 52.9 against 51.8. The pair pound/dollar sharply increased by the end of the trades. The Bank of Japan became the chief newsmaker last week when the Bank had introduced a negative interest rate the first time in its history. According to the BoJ this rate will remain until the regulator sees a stable inflation rate of 2% per year. The pair dollar/yen slightly decreased by the end of the trades. Technical analysis Euro General overview According to Draghi the euro zone economy recovery should be supported by the effective policy. In addition, he noted that the fiscal policy should contribute to the recovery process as well. The euro was not surprised by the euro area inflation data. The consumer prices rose 0.4% y/y against the previous value of 0.2%. The core inflation accelerated to 1% in line with expectations. The euro zone published the Markit January Manufacturing PMI: the data came in at 52.3, in line with expectations. The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will be trading in a side corridor between the levels of 1.0925 and 1.0800. Pound General overview The 10-year UK government bonds yield is decreasing relative to their US and Germany counterparts which reduces the investment attractiveness in the British assets. On Monday, the United Kingdom published the manufacturing PMI. The data came in at the level of 52.9 against the forecasted 51.8. The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.4400 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4480 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen General overview The Bank of Japan decision to cut the rate expanded the United States and Japanese government bond yield differential which increases demand for US assets supporting the dollar. The "risky assets" demand pressures the Japanese yen as a carry trade funding currency. The first support resides at 120.40, the next is at 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.20. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The price is likely to form a consolidation under the resistance level of 121.30. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 03.02.2016 Fundamental analysis Risk aversion has weakened the US currency position. The global economy depressing picture became the reason for the growing pessimism. Initially, the risk aversion was triggered by the China report where the manufacturing sector PMI fell from 49.7 to 49.4 while analysts expected a more modest drop to 49.6. The Eurozone December Unemployment Rate showed 10.4%, the forecast was 10.5%. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD decreased. The UK has published the Construction PMI index for January. The index came in at 55.0. The Bank of England revealed the mortgage market statistics: the Mortgage Approvals for December grew by 0.59% to 70.84 thousand, while the Net Lending to Individuals was 3.2 billion pounds for December. Investors expected the PMI reduction compared to the previous month. The forecasted median was 57,5 against the previous 57,8. In fact the index came in at the level of 55,0. The trades on the pair GBP/USD closed with a growth. The 10-year Japanese government bonds yield continued their falling which is a strong bearish factor for the yen. After the Bank of Japan decision to introduce the negative interest rates the US and Japanese securities differential yields have been expanding which increases the investment attractiveness in US assets. However the pair USD/JPY fell on the yesterday’s trades. Technical analysis Euro General overview The Eurozone published statistics did not impact the pair. The German manufacturing PMI exceeded traders’ expectations, reaching 52.3 against the forecast and the previous value of 52.1. Meanwhile, the Markit Manufacturing PMI has coincided with the forecast at the level of 52.3. The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will form a consolidation at the current levels. The buyers need to break above 1.0925 for a steady growth. Pound General overview The UK favorable statistics supported the pound. The Markit Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.9, exceeding the forecast of 51.8 and the previous value of 52.3. The weak USA statistics supported the GBP/USD as well. The UK published construction PMI for January (55,0 against the forecasted 57,5).We expect the quarterly inflation report on Thursday which may disappoint investors with the revised inflation and GBP estimates to the negative direction. The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We expect the 1.4480 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4560. Yen General overview The Japanese manufacturing PMI amounted to 52.3 against the forecast of 52.4. The US revealed the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (at the forecasted median 47,8) and the New York ISM (718,9 against the previous 716,6). The first support resides at 120.40, the next is at 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.20. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting Trading recommendations After the support level of 119.20 breakthrough down the way to the support 118.40 will be opened *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 04.02.2016 Fundamental analysis The United States published the US PMI Composite from IMS for January at the level of 53.5 (the previous value was 55.3, the forecast was 55.1). In addition the USA released the ADP Employment Change for January at the level of 205K (the previous value was 267K; the forecast was 195K). The Eurozone unemployment rate decreased by 0.8% to the level of 10.4% in 2015. That figure is a clear reflection of the ECB soft monetary policy. The low euro rate and the cheap liquidity contribute to the real economy development. The Euro area Retail Sales showed 1,4% y/y and 0,3% m/m against the forecasted 1,5% y/y and 0,3% m/m. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar showed a strong growth. The UK GDP grew by 2.17% in 2015, compared with the growth of 2.85% in 2014. The same United States growth rate was 2.38% and 2.42% respectively for the same period. As we can see, the UK economic slowdown is stronger than in the USA which has traditionally been a negative factor for the currency. The pair pound/dollar increased. The dollar showed a rather volatile dynamics. The currency weakened against the yen which is in demand amid a new wave of risk aversion. The oil prices falling caused stock indices decrease which significantly losing ground this week after the spectacular recent growth. In the light of this, buyers showed interest to the Japanese yen Non-Manufacturing PMI has been published. The EU index showed 53.6 that coincided with the forecast. The same index showed 53.2 in the USA, the forecast was 53.7. The UK Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.6 versus the forecast of 55.3 Technical analysis Euro General overview The escape from the risky assets alongside with the favorable statistics supported the EUR/USD. In particular, the Germany Unemployment Rate fell to a 20-year low at 6.2% versus the forecast of 6.3%. The Eurozone same index fell to 10.4% from 10.5%. The Producer Price Index fell to 3.0% against the expectations of -2.8%. The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260 There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1150. After breaking 1.1150 the buyers may go to 1.1260. Pound General overview The pair got under pressure due to the oil prices drop and the weak secondary report from the UK. The Construction PMI for January sharply fell to 55.0 from 57.8, while analysts had expected a much more modest weakening to 57.6. The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4700. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The targets are the levels of 1.4630 and 1.4700. Yen General overview The 2-year US Treasury bonds yield set a fresh low for the past twelve weeks. We note that the yield has dropped by 30 basis points since the beginning of this year. The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 117.00, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 116.20. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 05.02.2016 Fundamental analysis This week trading showed an increased turbulence, the dollar has collapsed on all fronts. This week has been the worst one for the dollar in the last 7 years. The USA macroeconomic statistics keeps coming out negative, the commodity market is showing growth which traditionally has a negative impact on the dollar value. The US published the Initial Jobless Claims number (285000 against the forecasted 280000), the Unit Labor Costs (4,5% against the forecasted 3,9%) and the Factory Orders (-2,9% against the forecasted -2,8%). Today all traders’ attention will be focused on the NFP. The EUR/USD set a fresh 3-month high. The ECB published its meeting minutes. According to Mario Draghi if the Bank decided to prolong the stimulus measures the side measures wouldn’t be an obstacle. The trades on the pair EUR/USD closed with a growth. The pound reached the 45th figure in the background of moderately positive Markit Services PMI. The January index figure is lower than the annual average which does not allow us to count on the growth acceleration in the leading sector of the UK economy. On Thursday, all of the players' attention was focused on the Bank of England meeting. Traders did not expect any surprise paying attention to the regulator assessment of the economic situation in the country and the monetary policy perspective. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar slightly fell. Lack of demand for "risk assets" plays into the USD/JPY bears hands. Investors are concerned that the US GDP in 2016 could grow less than 2.4% - such forecast was voiced at the Fed December meeting. These concerns are caused by the weak manufacturing and the service sectors ISM. The pair dollar/yen showed a decrease. Technical analysis Euro General overview The escape from the risky assets, coupled with the widespread dollar sales caused the euro growth. The US currency seems to have less faith in the Fed's plans to tighten the monetary policy. According to the European Commission the GDP growth forecast remained at 1.9% in 2017, while the GDP growth forecast for 2016 was revised to 1.7% from previous 1.8%. The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350 There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.1260 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1350 will be opened after this breakthrough. Pound General overview The pound keeps showing positive dynamics due to the several factors. Firstly, the oil prices growth, secondly – the dollar weakening and thirdly, the UK chances to leave the EU have been significantly decreased. The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4700. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4630, 1.4700. Yen General overview The BoJ head Kuroda hinted that the regulator may continue to lower the interest rates as the monetary policy easing has no boundaries. He also promised to develop new instruments to stimulate the economy. The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations After the support level of 116.20 breakthrough down the way to the support 115.40 will be opened. Franc General overview The Switzerland National Bank head Mr. Jordan reiterated that the franc was overbought and the Central Bank was ready to intervene if necessary. However, Jordan declined to comment whether the Bank had intervention lately. Switzerland published the Consumer Climate index Q1 report. The index showed -14.0. The previous value was -18.0. The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9850. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9750. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 11.02.2016 Fundamental analysis The traders' concerns about the world economy growth slow down in general and the energy sector's fate in particular caused a new wave of stock indices selling. The threat of large slate companies bankruptcy alongside with the Deutsche Bank problems whose shares have fallen to the record lows, discouraged investors from trading with high-risk assets. The Germany industrial production and trade balance weak data for December once again supported our assumptions that we should not count on the euro significant increase in the medium term. The industrial production volume decreased by 2.2% while it had shown growth of 0.8% in 2015. In this regard, we see a steady negative trend and it is not highly profitable to have a strong euro. The pair EUR/USD closed the trades with a decrease. The UK published the industrial production release for December. The index came in at -1.1% m/m. The pair GBP/USD quickly left the lows, despite the weaker-than-expected manufacturing industry data. The pair GBP/USD slightly increased. Janet Yellen speech to Congress is this week key event. Her attitude about the economy state and the monetary policy future shall determine the further prospects of the dollar which has recently weakened. The pair USD/JPY fell by the end of the trades. According to Janet Yellen there are risks in the US economy which may slow down their plans to increase the interest rates in short-term. The economic China upheavals leave a negative impact on the US economy and the traders' inflation expectations continue declining. The Fed chairman did not talk about the possibility of a later interest rates increase, still the mentioned risks made her tone soft highlighting concerns about the Fed rate hikes this year. Technical analysis Euro General overview The industrial production in Germany fell by 1.2% against an average forecast of 0.4. Meanwhile, the trade surplus narrowed to 18.8 billion euros from 20.5 billion euros, while exports and imports have fallen by 1.6%. The euro ignores the warning signals from Greece, whose problems may soon again be in the center of our attention. The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350 There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. After the level of 1.1260 breakthrough the first target is the level 1.3670. Pound General overview We should pay attention to industrial production for December. The PMI positive dynamics allowed counting on the data slightly better than the consensus forecast. Manufacturing index for December came in at -0.2% m/m, -1.7% y/y. The forecast was 0.1% m/m, -1.4% y/y. The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4630. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.4560 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4630 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen General overview The debt market dynamics indicates the dollar possible strengthening: the 10-year US and Japanese government bonds yields differential expanded which increases the investing attractiveness to the US assets. Traders followed Janet Yellen comments as her speech could easily reverse the trend, or on the contrary, strengthen it. After this speech the dollar weakened against the yen. The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued. When the price consolidates below the level of 113.80 it may go to the level 113.00. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 12.02.2016 Fundamental analysis The dollar showed mixed trades against its major rivals. The stock markets have tried to return to a growth, still Janet Yellen's soft comments regarding possible returning to the quantitative easing program, have caused some concerns among investors. The head of the Fed talked about negative interest rates. According to her she does not know any reason the Fed might introduce the negative rates in the nearest future. In economic news, the leading stock markets showed an upward trend which is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency. However the pair euro/dollar showed a growth by the end of the trades. The UK industrial production weak report indicates that it is not necessary to count on the pound significant growth. The industrial production volume decreased by 1.79% in the last year fourth quarter compared with the same year third quarter. The pair pound/dollar slightly grew after a decrease. Yesterday the US published the Initial Jobless Claims for January at the level of 269K (the previous value was 285K; the forecast was 287K). The short positions cutting signals about investors' "risk appetite" growth that traditionally has a negative impact on the yen value as a funding currency. Nevertheless, the pair dollar/yen fell to the new minimums. Technical analysis Euro General overview Despite the Janet Yellen's soft comments, she made it clear that the rate hike is still on the agenda, but, as before, it will depend on incoming economic data and the situation in the financial markets. A certain portion of the negative comments for the euro came from Prata, the ECB representative. According to him the regulator may use some instrument to solve problems with liquidity. The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1440 There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1260 and 1.1150. We don’t exclude that the pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1350. After breaking 1.1350 the buyers may go to 1.1440. Pound General overview The pair ignored the weak UK statistics. The industrial output fell in January by 1.1% m/m and 0.4% y/y vs. -0.1% and + 1.0% and the previous result at the level of -0.8% and +0.7%, respectively. The NIESR GDP estimate for January was + 0.4% versus the previous result of + 0.6%. The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4630. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations If the price breaks 1.4480 up it will open the way to the resistance level of 1.4560. If the price fixates below the support 1.4400, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4320. Yen General overview It is impossible to ignore the rumors that the Bank of Japan is ready, if necessary, to enter the foreign exchange market with some interventions. This turn of events can not be excluded, as the yen has strengthened by 5.2% in February, the price dropped to its lowest level in 12 months. The first support resides at 111.40, the next is at 110.60. The first resistance stands at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 112.20 and 113.00. If the price goes to the support level of 111.40 and breaks it the next target will by 110.60. Franc General overview If the FED expects further growth in wages, the real incomes increase will not allow the core inflation to go far below the level of 2%. In this regard, the interest rate may be increased during the current year. However, nobody expects changes in the monetary policy at the next FOMC meeting on March. The first support resides at 0.9660, the next is at 0.9580. The first resistance stands at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The first decrease target is the level 0.9660, the next one is 0.9580. We do not exclude the growth to 0.9750 and further to the level of 0.9850. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 15.02.2016 Fundamental analysis The US dollar was under pressure last Friday, as concerns about the global economic outlook caused a fall of stock markets. The demand for the safe-haven assets: the yen and the euro, have been increased. Chinese market was closed due to the Chinese New Year celebration. Japanese Finance Minister made it clear to investors that the rapid Japanese yen growth could lead to the regulator’s intervention. If necessary, the bank will take all the necessary measures to limit the yen’s growth. According to Aso: the exchange rate has been recently showing quite sharp fluctuations that differ from the BoJ’s financial policy. According to Eurostat the Eurozone GDP (q/q) remained at the same level of 0.3%. The US retail sales report for January was published on Friday. The forecast was 0.1%, the index came in at 0.2%. The Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index for February (in the preliminary estimate) was expected with a growth by 92.6 from 92.0 in January. The index came in less than it was expected having shown 90.7. Technical analysis Euro General overview Germany’s GDP grew by 0.3% in Q4, in line with expectations. The index remained unchanged from the previous quarter. German GDP increased by 2.1% on an annual basis in the last quarter, which was below the expected 2.3%. The 10-year government bonds in Germany showed growth to their counterparts from the US and the UK, which increased the investment attractiveness in European assets. The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1440. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The decrease targets are remained the same, the levels of support: 1.1150 and 1.1050. The pair may grow to the resistance level of 1.1440. Pound General overview The Britain Construction PMI rose + 1.5% m/m and 0.5% y/y from -0.5% m/m and -1.1% y/y. Housing building showed growth in the UK in Q4: + 4.1% q/q from 5.7% q/q in Q3. Meanwhile, the dollar remains volatile. According to Janet Yellen there was a good reason to believe that the US economy would remain on a path of a moderate growth that would allow the Fed to conduct monetary policy "gradual change". The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4630. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The break and consolidation above 1.4480 will open the way to the resistance levels of 1.4630 and 1.4700. After the drop below the support of 1.4400 we may see a decrease to 1.4320. Yen General overview Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso warned investors about the Japanese yen rapid growth, saying that the government may take necessary measures if necessary to limit the yen’s growth. A number of banks have raised their forecasts that we may see an intervention by the Japanese Bank soon. The JP Morgan expects the further monetary policy liberalization after the Bank of Japan meeting on March 14-15. The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The potential growth target is the resistance level 117.50. If the price goes to the support level of 111.40 and breaks it the next target will by 110.60. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 16.02.2016 Fundamental analysis The stock markets sentiment had significantly improved which forced the risky assets to retreat after a recent rally. The oil quotations recovery coupled with the Deutsche Bank news. The bank is planning to buy back bonds for the amount of 5 billions dollars. All these factors supported the demand for the dollar. No important news were published yesterday. We believe that the euro won't show significant growth this week. The industrial production volume in the euro area decreased by 0.31% at the end of 2015, compared with a growth of 0.47% a year earlier. The strong euro is not in the European industrialists' interests and the ECB certainly understands that. The pair euro/dollar fell on the yesterday’s trades. The 10-year government bonds yield is increasing in relation to their counterparts (USA and Germany) which increases the investments attractiveness in British assets. In addition, the Brent failing had its positive impact on the British currency as expected. Only by the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar slightly decreased. Japan had published the Q4 GDP, the report did not show any surprises. The decreased household spending and the negative trade balance indicate an economic growth reduction. The 4th quarter GDP reached the level of 1.4% (y/y) vs. 1.2% (y/y) and 0.4% (q/q) vs. 0.3% (q/q). The pair dollar/yen shows a growth. Technical analysis Euro General overview The pair EUR/USD fell at the yesterday’s trades. Earlier the escape from the risky assets alongside with the contradictory Eurozone statistics became the reasons for the pair’s growth. The Eurozone economy grew by 0.3% q/q in the fourth quarter, exceeding the forecast. The ECB President Mario Draghi’s performance drew traders’ attention yesterday. According to him the economic recovery is happening at a moderate pace. The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350 The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1260, 1.1350. Pound General overview The GBPUSD could not hold its positions amid the widespread buying of the dollar. The dollar became so popular after the strong US retail sales. The report had shown that the inflation kept accelerating in the country, as a result the Fed might review its plans about the rates rising. The lack of UK statistics made traders turn their views to the oil dynamics. The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations After the trend line 1.4400 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4320 will be opened. We don’t exclude that the pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.4480. After breaking 1.4480 the buyers may go to 1.4560. Yen General overview Weak Japanese GDP put pressure on the yen. The strong yen had a negative impact on the Japanese exports. That fact can make the monetary authorities take additional measures. The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 114.60 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 113.80, 113.00. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 17.02.2016 Fundamental analysis The dollar started the new trading week on a positive note. The US currency purchase supported the positive sentiment for the world stock exchange. Even China's return to the market after long holidays did not spoil that sentiment. The imports and exports volume from China decreased by 18.8% and 11.2%, respectively in January. The banking sector shares outperformed the market in Europe. Investors' "risk appetite" was growing which is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency. Germany has published the ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment for February. The index showed 1.0 (the previous value was 10.2; the forecast was 3.2). The pair euro/dollar fell. The UK published the inflation report for January. A strong labor market pointed out that CPI growth (in annual terms) could be a little better than the consensus forecast (0.4%). The unemployment rate for November decreased by 5.1%, while wages increased by 1.02%. However the CPI came in at the forecasted median 0,3%. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar sharply fell. The Japanese negative macroeconomic statistics keeps showing correction. GDP decreased by 0.4% in the fourth quarter. The volume of industrial production has been reducing for the second year in a row and the negative trend accelerated from 1.91% to 2.49% in 2015. The sharp yen's strengthening, that we saw in the beginning of the year, carries additional risks to the Japanese economy. The pair dollar/yen is consolidating after a decrease. Technical analysis Euro General overview The news that Bundesbank lowered its inflation growth forecast for 2016 pressured the euro. The Bundesbank lowered the forecast to + 0.25% from 1.1% amid the cheap oil. Mario Draghi made it clear in his performance that the regulator was ready to revise its policy at the next meeting. He stressed that the monetary policy would remain accommodative for an extended period. Draghi’s soft statements only increased the pressure on the euro. The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260 The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.1050 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0925. Pound General overview The United Kingdom published the inflation report for January: Consumer price index came in at 0.8% m/m and 0.3% y/y. Producer Price Index was published as well. The index showed -0.7% m/m and -1.0% y/y. The oil market kept showing decrease which played into the bears’ hand. The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We expect the 1.4240 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.4160. Yen General overview The strong yen reduced the products competitiveness in foreign markets. The products competitiveness is what the Japanese industry needs most of all now. We believe we can still get a new batch of verbal intervention until the end of the month, which will make bears close short positions. The short positions closure shall contribute to the quotations growth. The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 114.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 115.40 will be opened after this breakthrough. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 18.02.2016 Fundamental analysis The dollar purchase dominated despite some weak data from the US. Investors’ sentiment changed to a negative one when the oil prices returned to a decrease, which was characterized by a high volatility, and were the main driver for global markets. On the one hand, ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey showed a growing pessimism among financial experts. On the other hand, the Fed’s last meeting minutes were published. Traders expected to see a dovish rhetoric of the monetary authorities regarding energy prices falling and global economic growth slowing down. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar slightly decreased. The British pound recovered after the employment data release. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1%, compared with the forecast for a drop to 5.0%. Claimant Count Change fell by 14.8K in January, while the Average Earnings including Bonus increased by 1.9% in December. The pair pound/dollar fell by the end of the trades. This year we have seen high volatility in the financial markets. The last FOMC meeting minutes were published. Traders’ expected the minutes to coincide with the Janet Yellen’s comments in front the US Congress, that the labor market is showing a positive trend. However, the risk significantly increased due to low energy prices and the slowing down of the global growth. According to minutes some leaders are afraid of the US economy slowdown amid China's economic problems. The majority believes that the inflation will rise to 2% in the medium term. The Fed stressed that the date of interest rates rising would depend on the incoming economic data. The pair dollar/yen was trading in the consolidation corridor. Technical analysis Euro General overview The Germany 10-year government bonds were moderately growing in relation to their counterparts from the United States and Germany, which increases the investment attractiveness of European assets. Earlier, Mario Draghi reiterated the regulator’s readiness to continue the soft monetary policy in March. The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260 The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The consolidation will be continued. The upward bounce potential target are 1.1150. If the price falls it will get to 1.1050. Pound General overview The pound fell after the weak inflation publication in the UK. The base CPI rose by only 1.2% y/y. Meanwhile, the overall inflation rate decreased by 0.8% m/m from the previous of 0.1%. These figures show that the Bank of England will definitely not soon take measures against the price pressure. The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.4320 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4400 will be opened after this breakthrough. The sellers need to break below 1.4240 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.4160 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen General overview The US economy again showed unfavorable signals. Contrary to traders’ expectations, Housing Market Index fell from 60 to 58, and Empire State Manufacturing Index showed -16.64 against the forecast of -10.00. The Building Permits report for January was published. The forecast was 1.204M, the index showed 1.202M. Producer Price Index showed 0,1% versus the forecast of -0,2%. The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 114.60 and 115.40. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 113.80 and 113.00. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 19.02.2016 Fundamental analysis The major pairs remained volatile without excessive nervousness. The FOMC’s minutes did not spring any surprise. The minutes’ tone was restrained with a pessimistic tone. The regulator pointed at the growing risks concerning the economy, having stressed that the current information was insufficient for a full risk assessment. The US published Initial Jobless Claims for February on the level of 262K (the previous value was 269K; the forecast was 275K). We noticed some capital flow into "risky assets" this week, which was a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency. In the credit markets, the 10-year German government bonds yield decreased in relation to their counterparts (the USA and the UK) which reduced the investments attractiveness in European assets. The pair euro/dollar decreased. Britain failed to deliver strong data to the investors from about the labor market. Unemployment and average earnings indicators for December remained at the previous levels. The unemployment level of differential rates in Great Britain and the United States remained the same. The pair pound/dollar fell after a growth. The appetite for risk kept growing in financial markets which put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen slightly fell. Technical analysis Euro General overview The two-day EU summit started on Thursday. We expect to hear some comments regarding the state of the regional economy that can impact the euro dynamics. Besides Eurozone Current Account report some strong USA reports pressured the pair. Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy sharply rose by 0.4% in January against the expected growth of 0.1%. The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260 There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050 and 1.0925. Pound General overview We received moderately negative reports on two major macroeconomic indicators this week (inflation and unemployment), which calls into question the further British currency strengthening. The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.4400. We do not exclude the falls to 1.4240 Yen General overview The USD/JPY resumed its decline. Oil Industry Ministers meeting results disappointed the market and provoked "black gold" prices sharp decline. It traditionally supported the yen as a safe-haven. The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing Trading recommendations After the support level of 113.00 breakthrough down the way to the support 112.20 will be opened. Franc General overview The dollar was under pressure after the Fed's soft comments and after the trade balance positive report in Switzerland. The frank grew after it became known that Switzerland's trade surplus was higher than it had been forecasted, supporting the pair after four days decrease. The trade surplus amounted to 3.51 billion. for January. However by the end of the trades the pair strengthened. The first support resides at 0.9859, the next is at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9960. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0100. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 22.02.2016 Fundamental analysis Despite positive stock markets sentiment and good USA labor market data the dollar failed to grow. Investors were also pleased with the lack of negative reports from China, where the inflation reached the forecasted level. The Fed's meeting minutes released on Wednesday impacted the dollar as well. The regulator's soft tone was interpreted by traders as another retreat from December's plans. The ECB minutes pointed that the inflation would remain at low levels. Mario Draghi said the ECB was ready to implement additional monetary policy easing at the next meeting on March 10th. We again got the divergent expectations of a policies change of the two central banks. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar slightly increased. The UK published retail sales release for January at the level of 2,3%m/m and 5,2%y/y against the forecasted 0,8%m/m and 3,6%y/y. The positive trend in the labor market allows us to expect retail sales growth compared with the previous month. An increase of wages was recorded in the UK during the period from November to December last year. The pair pound/dollar showed a growth by the end of the trades. The OECD lowered its growth forecast for Japanese GDP to 0.8% from 1.0% in 2016. The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar by 5.1% since the beginning of this year. That fact reduced the national products competitiveness in foreign markets. The trade deficit in Japan amounted to 645.9 billion in January, which is 5 times more than in the last quarter of 2015. The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease. Technical analysis Euro General overview Neither the risk sentiment nor the ECB’s meeting minutes did not contribute to the EUR/USD recovery. The regulator in his statement pointed to the downside economic risks increase in comparison with the December’s assessment and again expressed its willingness to use all available instruments if the situation requires. In general, the regulator did not tell anything new. However, the ECB’s signals regarding the further situation worsening in the region could not leave indifferent the euro that started to grow. The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260 There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1150, the next one is 1.1260. Pound General overview Expectations that the UK and Europe will reach the consensus regarding reforms that could leave the UK in the Eurozone supported the pound. According to the European Commission President Juncker they have chances to reach the agreement. The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations If the pair breaks the level of 1.4400 we expect the growth to 1.4480. After the support level of 1.4320 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4240 will be opened. Yen General overview According to Mr. Kuroda the regulator is ready to reduce the negative interest rates and to increase the quantitative easing program to achieve the inflation target of 2%, if it is necessary. Thus, the Japanese financial authorities continued its verbal intervention in respect of its national currency, which is expensive for a sustainable economic growth. The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations After the support level of 113.00 breakthrough down the way to the support 112.20 will be opened. Franc General overview The US published a consumer price index for January at the level of 0,3% m/m (the previous value was 0,2% m/m; the forecast was 0,2% m/m). The consumer price index excluding food and energy prices for January showed 2,2% y/y (the previous value was 2,1% y/y; the forecast was 2,1% y/y). The first support resides at 0.9859, the next is at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows movement a horizontal and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 23.02.2016 Fundamental analysis The US consumer price index for January rose by 1.4% year over year, beating our expectations about a growth by 1.3%. The core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.2%, also more than expected. There was a decrease for demand on euro because the composite PMI fell down. The composite PMI is the combination of the manufacturing and services sectors activities, it reached a 13-month low of 53.0 in February from January's value of 53,6. Economists expected 53.3. British Prime Minister David Cameron said that he had agreed with the European Union on the exceptional conditions of membership within the union. Still, according to his campaign promises, he would held a referendum where the country would decide to stay or not within the EU. According to the preliminary estimates, the Japanese manufacturing sector index activity for February came in at 50.2, while experts expected it to fall from 52.3 to 52.0 last month. Technical analysis Euro General overview EU data chained many investors’ attention. We expect that with its help we will predict future market direction. If the data comes in better than expected, the demand for the single European currency is likely to resume. Still there are risks that the data will be in the dollar’s favor. The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We believe the decrease will be continued. The first target is the level 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800. Pound General overview The British referendum to stay within the EU or to leave it was the key topic yesterday. The referendum is scheduled for June 23, 2016. We noticed that the more this topic is discussed, the more is noticeable differences of opinion in British society. The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show are directed downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the pair breaks the support of 1.4080 we expect a decrease to 1.4000. After the resistance level of 1.4240 breakthrough the way to the level of 1.4320 will be opened. Yen General overview Last Friday yen continued strengthening against the dollar, despite the BoJ head’s comments that the Japanese economy could revive due to the negative rates. Mr. Abe’s statements supported the yen as well. He talked about the importance of increasing the fees to increase expenses. Mr. Abe stressed that the regulator did not have any intention to postpone the increase in sales tax once again. The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing Trading recommendations After the support level of 113.00 breakthrough down the way to the support 112.20 will be opened. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 24.02.2016 Fundamental analysis The dollar started the week with strengthening against its rivals. The US currency and the stock assets grew together amid oil prices rising. The dollar was slowed down a bit by Markit Manufacturing PMI for February that had fallen to its lowest level of 51.0 since October 2012. The previous value was 52.4 and the forecast was 52.3. The German's GDP in the 4th quarter increased by 0.3% compared with the previous quarter, which corresponds to the growth rate in the 3rd quarter. This figure confirmed the preliminary assessment. Thus, the GDP growth rate amounted to 1.1% in annual terms. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD slightly strengthened. The GBPUSD fell and the reason of its fall was the potential Brexit. The aggressive pound selling was Mayor of London Boris Johnson's statements, where he supported the British exit from the EU. The Prime Minister David Cameron confirmed the holding of a referendum on 23rd of June this year. In light of these developments Citibank raised its estimate of the Brexit probability up to 30-40% from 20-30% previously. The pair GBP/USD sharply fell to the new minimums. The Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Tuesday that he saw no direct connection between the monetary base increase and the inflation expectations. Still we believe that Kuroda overestimated the impact of monetary policy major changes on public opinion. The pair USD/JPY is consolidating. Technical analysis Euro General overview German’s Business Climate for February has worsened for the third month in a row. The index fell to 105.7 from 107.3 in January, reaching the lowest level since December 2014. Analysts had expected the index to decline to 106.7. Expectations index for February dropped to 98.8, that was the lowest level since December 2012. The index fell from a revised downward value of 102.3 for January. The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150 There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations After the trend support level of 1.0925 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0800 will be opened. Pound General overview The pound fell to a six-year low against the dollar on Monday as concerns over a possible exit of Britain from the European Union (EU), known as "Brexit" were still strong. Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor, performed on Tuesday. He noted that the current account balance was kept in a high deficit. At the same time, domestic demand remained positive. Mark Carney stressed that the regulator might lower the rate or increase the volume of asset purchases. The price is finding the first support at 1.4000, the next one is at 1.3920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4160. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing Trading recommendations We do not exclude the downward movement will be continued. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4000 and 1.3920. Yen General overview The yen strengthened against other major currencies on Tuesday. The yen became popular when oil prices fell again and caused the shares decline. The USA published Existing Home Sales (0,8% against the forecasted 0,9%), Existing Home Sales Change (5,47M against the forecasted 5,32M) and Consumer Confidence (92,2 against the forecasted 97,0) reports. The first support resides at 111.40, the next is at 110.60. The first resistance stands at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 113.00 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 113.80 will be opened after this breakthrough. The sellers need to break below 111.40 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 110.60 will be opened after this breakthrough. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 25.02.2016 Fundamental analysis Tuesday was marked by the dollar strengthening against all European currencies. The dollar grew despite the sentiment drop of global investors. The USA published Markit Services PMI (49,8 against the forecasted 53,5), Markit PMI Composite (50.1 against the previous 53.2) and New Home Sales (494K against the forecasted 520K) reports. The Eurozone did not publish important news, and therefore traders' attention was entirely directed to the stock indices. The pair euro/dollar slightly strengthened by the end of the trades. The UK released BBA Mortgage Approvals (47,5K against the forecasted 45,5K) and CBI Distributive Trades Survey for February. (10 against the forecasted 12) In addition, the pound depends on news about Brexit now. The survey results before the referendum may lead to increase volatility of GBP/USD. The pair pound/dollar continued the downward movement. The Bank of Japan governor statements supported the yen. According to Kuroda the accelerating pump of money into the economy will not increase expectations of future price increase. The current monetary policy has limits and it can revive the economic growth just to some extant. The market became more caution after China's decision to set a lower rate for the yuan, although most traders expected it to remain unchanged during the finance ministers and central bank governors meeting ("Big Twenty") this week. The pair dollar/yen decreased. Technical analysis Euro General overview The euro has weakened this week amid concerns that Brexit may impact the Eurozone. According to the ECB representative Mr. Weidmann, the long uncertainty about that topic might affect the global economy. He also said that ignoring the effects of soft monetary policy might become a problem. Weidmann stressed that the economic outlook was not as bad as it seemed. He noted that a low inflation was a problem for the monetary policy and the gradual Eurozone recovery should be continued this year and the next one. The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150 There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1050. After breaking 1.1050 the buyers may go to 1.1150. Pound General overview The UK published CBI Distributive Trades Survey on Wednesday (10 against the forecasted 12). The report came in at 10 with the forecast of 12. Traders will focus their attention on the UK GDP data on Thursday. Traders expect that the second GDP estimate for the 4th quarter will remain at 0.5% q/q and 1.9% y/y. Weak GDP figures may trigger pound selling. The price is finding the first support at 1.3920, the next one is at 1.3840. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4000, the next one is at 1.4080. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential target are 1.4000, 1.4080. If the price falls it will get to 1.3920 and 1.3840. Yen General overview This month the yen has risen relative to all major currencies amid stock and commodity markets falling that increased demand for the "safe haven" currencies. High demand for the yen in anticipation of the end of the month, as well as expectations that the Japanese Central Bank will not conduct any intervention before the G20 meeting, scheduled for the end of this week, could further strengthen the Japanese currency. The first support resides at 111.40, the next is at 110.60. The first resistance stands at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 112.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 113.00. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 26.02.2016 Fundamental analysis The weak US data gave the euro strength by pushing the dollar down. According to the preliminary data, Markit Services PMI for February reached the level of 49.8 against the forecast of 53.5 and the previous value of 53.2. Meanwhile, the primary housing market sales fell by 9.2% against the expected slow decline to -4.4%. The United States published Initial Jobless Claims (272000 against the forecasted 270000), Housing Prices (0,4% m/m against the forecasted 0,5% m/m), Orders for durable goods (1,8% m/m against the forecasted 0,2% m/m) reports. The demand decreased on euro amid: oil prices falling, fears of China's banking system corruption, as well as talking about Brexit. In the same time, British possible exit from the EU sent the pound to multi-year lows, pressing the euro as well. Traders did not use the euro as a safe haven due to speculation about the potential breaking of the European Union after the UK leaving the alliance. Only by the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar slightly strengthened. The pair GBP/USD was under pressure amid the possible UK exit from the EU. The market was volatile in anticipation of the UK GDP data for Q4. Traders expected a growth by 0.5%. In fact, the second GDP estimate came in at 0.5% q/q and + 1.9% y/y. The pair pound/dollar is consolidating. The yen strengthened again in a new wave of risky assets sales this week. However the dollar showed a growth against the yen on Tuesday’s trades. Technical analysis Euro General overview The euro got under new wave of sales after Weidmann's statements. According to the ECB representative the inflation may not reach the target level of 1% in 2016 due to the increased downside risks. Consumer Price Index for the last month remained unchanged. According to the report, prepared by Eurostat, the rate (seasonally corrected) was 1.0% compared with 1.0% in the previous month, that was in the line with expectations. The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150 There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.3610 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.3670 will be opened after this breakthrough. We do not exclude the falls to 1.0925 and 1.0800. Pound General overview The negative dynamics of the British currency happened due to several reasons, among them were risk aversion from possible Bank of England's policy softening, as well as concerns over the upcoming referendum (23rd June), where the country would decide the fate of Great Britain in the EU. The UK published Index of Services for December. The Index came in at the forecasted level of 0,7%. The price is finding the first support at 1.3920, the next one is at 1.3840. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4000, the next one is at 1.4080. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations After the support level of 1.3920 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.3840 will be opened. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4000, 1.4080. Yen General overview The pair tried to develop an upward correction after Kuroda's statements. The Bank Governor hinted that they might expand the QQE program. Japan relies on exports, so it needs a weak Yen to survive. The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations If the price fixates above the resistance 113.00, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 113.80. Franc General overview The Swiss franc strengthened its position against the US dollar after another batch of weak economic data. Stock indices fall and the increased demand for safe-haven assets played they role as well. Switzerland published Industrial Production for Q4, the indicator came in at -7.7% y/y, the previous value was -6.7% y/y in Q3. The first support resides at 0.9850, the next is at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 29.02.2016 Fundamental analysis The US GDP for the fourth quarter was the key event last Friday (1,0% against the forecasted 0,4%). Earlier, the dollar lost ground, despite the durable goods orders positive release. The index jumped by 1.8% after falling by 1.2% in December. Last Friday the G20 summit started its work in Shanghai. The problems with China, monetary policies coordination as well as world economy stimulation will be discussed in the meeting. In economic news, German Finance Minister Schaeuble said in his speech that the space for monetary policy seems to be exhausted. According to him it was necessary to continue applying the financial regulation and to make the market less volatile. He also supported the idea to continue structural reforms. The pair euro/dollar sharply fell. The main drivers for the pair GBP/USD were: Brexit and the British regulator's current monetary position. The pound reached seven-year lows last week. The currency weakening happened after some new forecasts, according to which the British currency might fall if the British citizens would vote for the country's exit from the EU in June. According to the opinion polls 43% of the population insisted on the necessity of such a decision. After a slight growth the pair pound/dollar decreased to new minimums on Friday. The Bank of Japan continues to deny its plan to lower the current exchange rate. The BOJ governor Kuroda said that they did not plan to soften the monetary policy to weaken the yen. According to Mr. Kiuchi from the Board of Directors: an intervention will be an option if the market becomes volatile. The pair dollar/yen strengthened. Technical analysis Euro General overview The Euro ignored Eurozone inflation release. The inflation slowed down to + 0.4% from + 0.3%. Base CPI showed a drop of 1.7% versus + 0.3% of the previous month. The received data increased the chances that the European Central Bank would introduce additional measures to stimulate the economy at its next meeting in March. That might cause the euro decrease. The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations After the support level of 1.0925 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0800 will be opened. Pound General overview The UK GDP report coincided with the forecasts and provoked the pound weakening. The economy grew by 1.9% and 0.5% in the fourth quarter. The volume of business investment fell by 2.1% after a growth of 1.2% previously. The price is finding the first support at 1.3840, the next one is at 1.3760. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3920, the next one is at 1.4000. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 1.3840, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.3760. Yen General overview The Japanese yen fell against the dollar when it became known that the inflation growth in Japan slowed down in January. The slow inflation points to the obvious regulator's problems as it could not return the inflation to the target level of 2%. Also the positive USA GBP report (1,0% against the forecasted 0,4%) became the growth driver. The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 114.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 115.40 will be opened after this breakthrough. Franc General overview Dollar strengthened its position despite the fact that the US Initial Jobless Claims showed 272k against the previous value of 270k. The Fed Representative Williams said the US economy required a soft push forward. He proffered not to hurry with the rates raising, believing that normalization is a gradual process. The first support resides at 0.9960, the next is at 0.9850. The first resistance stands at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0150. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 01.03.2016 Fundamental analysis The NFP is the most anticipated event of this week. This is the final report, which may force the Federal Reserve to change its mind about the rate hike in March. We will receive ADP report on Wednesday, NFP will be released on Friday. The euro remained under pressure as the low inflation reminded investors that the ECB was likely to tighten its policy in March. Concerning consumer prices: Germany showed a growth for February and accelerated to 0.4% after falling to 0.8% in January, while other Eurozone countries showed a deflation. The Eurozone presented consumer price index for February. The index showed -0.2% y/y, the forecast was 0.1% y/y. The trades on the pair euro/dollar closed with a decrease. Brexit theme did not lose its effect on the global financial markets. George Osborne's (the Finance Minister of Great Britain) statement gave a new impulse to panic. Osborne said that the British currency might fall and declared that the country might face serious economic problems if it left the EU. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar showed a growth. The yen became popular after Japan's industrial production report for January publication. The index rose in comparison to the previous month. Industrial production growth was 3.7%, while economists forecasted an increase by only 3.3%. The pair dollar/yen fell. Technical analysis Euro General overview The euro got under pressure due to strong USA reports and disappointing macro data from the euro zone. The consumer confidence level came in at -8.8, we expected -6.7, economic sentiment index reached 103.8 vs. the previous value of 106.7, and service sector indicator fell to 10.6 from 11.5. Such disappointing figures may become another argument in favor of an additional ECB stimulus policy in March that may lead the further euro losses. The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0680. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 1.0800, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.0680. Pound General overview Pound rebounded upwards from the minimums. The pound was under pressure due to Brexit threat that became a very real and US data that had shown an unexpected rise. The GDP for the 4th quarter was revised upwards to 1.0% (annualized), while the market expected it to decrease from 0.7% to 0.4%. PCE deflator index rose to 1.7% y/y, above expectations and a revised data of 1.5%. The price is finding the first support at 1.3840, the next one is at 1.3760. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3920, the next one is at 1.4000. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The downward movement potential target is 1.3840. If the price grows above the level of 1.3920 it will get to 1.4000. Yen General overview Demand for the yen was resumed when industrial production in Japan for January rose compared with the previous month rate. Industrial production growth was 3.7%, while economists forecasted an increase by only 3.3%. Meanwhile, the US published Pending Home Sales. The index came in at - 2.5% versus expected 0.5%. The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 112.20 and 111.40. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 113.00 and 113.80. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 02.03.2016 Fundamental analysis The US published Manufacturing PMI for February, the index came in at 49.5 when the forecast was 48.5. The escape from "risky" assets had a positive impact on the euro as a funding currency. Previously, the euro came under wave of sales when consumer prices report came in negative. The inflation index amounted 0.2% against the expected 0.0%. Base CPI noticeably slowed down as well to + 0.7% from + 1.0%. The CPI results significantly increased the chances that ECB would launch more aggressive easing policy in March. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD decreased. We would pay attention for UK manufacturing sector PMI from Markit. Leading indicators pointed to negative data outcome. Industrial orders balance, according to the CBI, had been declining for ten consecutive months - the index recorded a maximum of the last three months in February. The PMI came in at the level of 50,8 against the forecasted 52,2. However the pair GBP/USD slightly strengthened. Japan shall publish household spending for January, which had supported the US currency. The index came in at -3.1% y/y vs. the previous -4.4% y/y and the forecast of -2.5% y/y. The pair USD/JPY sharply grew. Technical analysis Euro General overview The pair failed to take advantage of the widespread dollar weakening amid the weak USA data. Pending Home Sales unexpectedly fell to its lowest level in two years (2.5% vs. the forecast of + 0.5%). The European Union released Manufacturing PMI from Markit in Germany for February. The forecast was 50.2, the index came in at 50.5. Unemployment Change release in Germany coincided with the forecast. The index showed -10K. The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0680. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0800 and 1.0680. Pound General overview The United Kingdom published the manufacturing PMI for February: 50,8 (the forecast was 52.3). The previous statistics from the UK was quite positive: Mortgage Approvals exceeded the forecasts, having reached 74,581 against the previous 71,335. Meanwhile, Consumer Credit for January amounted £ 1.564 billion against the expected 1,300 billion. The price is finding the first support at 1.3920, the next one is at 1.3840. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4000, the next one is at 1.4080. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The upward movement potential targets are 1.4000 and 1.4050. If the price falls it will get to 1.3920 and 1.3840. Yen General overview The pair dollar/yen sharply grew. Earlier Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index decline caused a slight USD/JPY's drop. We believe that the dollar won't significantly affect the market before ADP release, but even then traders may want to wait for Services PMI from Markit before formulating their expectations about NFP. The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ targets are the levels of 114.60 and 115.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 03.03.2016 Fundamental analysis The United States published ADP report for February on the level of 214000 (the previous value was reviewed from 205K to 193K; the forecast was 190K). There was a growth of quotations cuased by: manufacturing PMI moderate positive data from Markit as well as, the unemployment rate decrease to 10.3% in the eurozone. The unemployment in Eurozone reached its lowest level since September 2011, still it was too far to the pre-crisis levels in 2008. In the debt market: Germany10-year government bond yield decreased in relation to their counterparts (the US and the UK), which reduced the attractiveness of European assets. However it was a short-term growth and the pair EUR/USD fell by the end of the trades. We should pay attention to construction PMI in the UK that came in at the level of 54,2 that is worse then forecasted 55,5. GDP in this sector showed a reduction in the second half of 2015, after a prolonged rapid growth. The possibility of Great Britain to exit the EU is also a negative factor for the construction sector. If the UK leaves the union, then London real estate market may show stagnation. Nevertheless the pair GBP/USD sharply increased. The USD/JPY showed some growth due to few factors. The negative release of Japan's household spending, that put "bears" in an awkward position. In addition to private consumption as the basis of the Japanese GDP, and finally "risk appetite" growth which was also a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency. Only by the end of the trades the pair USD/JPY decreased. Technical analysis Euro General overview Euro could not strengthen its position after the positive Eurozone macro reports. Eurozone unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to the lowest level since August 2011 (10.3%) compared to the forecast and the previous value of 10.4%. Meanwhile, manufacturing PMI from Markit rose to 51.2 from 51.0. Apparently, the market finally decided what to expect from the upcoming ECB meeting after consumer price deflation zone release and the euro remained indifferent to fresh figures. The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0680. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations After the support level of 1.0800 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0680 will be opened. Pound General overview Britain published construction sector PMI: 54,2 that is lower then the forecasted 55,5. The pound did not receive support from the black gold market positive dynamics. The financial markets showed a steady demand for "risk assets", which allowed the British currency to finish the day in the "green zone". The price is finding the first support at 1.4000, the next one is at 1.3920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.4080 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4160 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen General overview By the end of the trades the pair USD/JPY fell after a growth. The market has not decided yet what to do with the Bank of China's decision to reduce reserve requirements for banks. The yen was the main outsider having lost all points scored against the dollar. The yen came under influence of the USA ADP report on Wednesday. The data came in at the level of 214K against the forecasted 189K. The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 113.80, 114.60. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 04.03.2016 Fundamental analysis The United States published Initial Jobless Claims (278000 against the forecasted 271000) and Non-Manufacturing PMI for February (the data came in at the level of 53.4 the previous value was 53.5, the forecast was 53.2). Today traders' attention will be focused on NFP. The differential yields on US and German government bonds reduced, which increased the investment attractiveness in European assets. This in return would support the demand for euro. On the other hand, the risk "assets" are still in demand in the financial markets, which is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar showed a strong growth. The UK published Services PMI from Markit for February. The release came in at the level of 52.7, the previous value was 55.6, the forecast was 55.1. Firstly, the GDP grew by 0.65%, with an overall economic growth of 0.5% in the services sector in the fourth quarter of 2015. Secondly, the labor market positive dynamics shall increase optimism among purchasing managers in this sector. The pair pond/dollar increased. The published APD report justified our positive expectations. The final figure was 214 000, that is the first positive sign for Friday's data on the Non-Farm. Japan upset investors with its latest releases having published weak personal consumption report. The yields differential on US and Japanese government bonds has been expanding the last four trading days in a row, which supported the demand for the dollar. The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease. Technical analysis Euro General overview The euro strengthened on the Thursday’s trades. Earlier the euro was under pressure after weak manufacturing and inflation data in the Eurozone. The latest releases raised expectations that ECB would launch additional easing measures at the upcoming meeting. The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.1050 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1150. Pound General overview The GBPUSD received support amid the growing interest to the risky assets and the EURGBP fall. The 10-year UK government bonds yield increased in relation to their counterparts (USA and Germany), which increased the investments attractiveness in British assets. The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Crossâ€. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first targets are the levels of 1.4240 and 1.4320. Yen General overview The dollar was supported by ADP employment report. The report showed a growth by 214,000 last month, surpassing the expectations for an increase by 190,000. Today we will receive the NFP which will become the main driver for the market. The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 113.00, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 112.20. Franc General overview The Swiss franc strengthened against the dollar. The dollar leveled its achievements when the Fed’s "Beige Book" showed that the economic activity continued to expand in most districts: growth rates significantly vary from weak to strong, and the labor market conditions continue to improve. The first support lies at 0.9850 and then at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Crossâ€. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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