OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis

[OctaFX_Farid]

US: Factory Orders drop by 2.4% in July

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - US Factory Orders fell 2.4% in July, compared with the the 1.6% rise in June, the US Census Bureau reported today. Market consensus pointed to a steeper decline of 3.3%.

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Sep 05,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY climbs back above 100.00

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY extended gains above the 100.00 hurdle Thursday and printed a fresh 6-week high in a day loaded of data.

USD/JPY hits fresh 6-week high

With US 10-year yields reaching the highest since July 2011, USD/JPY stretched to a peak of 100.17 after the ISM services PMI came in stronger than expected for August, which gave the greenback another boost across the board. At time of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 100.10, 0.4% above its opening price.

USD/JPY maintains the positive tone

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY maintains the positive tone, says Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com. However, the analyst notes that range trading is likely to persist until next Friday’s US employment figures.

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Sep 05,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: Nonfarm payrolls up 169K in August

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - US NFP grew by 169K in August, following the July increase revised down to 104K, according to data released today by the US Department of Labor. This result is below market consensus of 180K.

The Unemployment Rate dropped to 7.3% from 7.4%, against forecasts of remaining unchanged.

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Sep 06,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CHF briefly drops below 0.9400 after NFP

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD plummeted across the board after data showed US economy added fewer jobs than expected in August, while previous month figures were downwardly revised, rising doubts whether the Fed is ready to begin tapering its bond purchases later this month.

USD/CHF falls below 0.9400

USD/CHF came under strong pressure and retreated from 7-week highs as knee-jerk reaction to the data, although it managed to bounce and recover some ground afterward. At time of writing, USD/CHF is trading at the 0.9425 zone, having bottomed out at 0.9384.

USD/CHF technical levels

In terms of technical levels, on the downside supports for USD/CHF are seen at 0.9384 (daily low) and 0.9351 (Sep 5 low), while on the upside, resistances could be found at 0.9455 (daily high) and 0.9496 (Jul 16 high).

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Sep 06,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Gold prices approach 1400 on weak NFP, Russian bravado in Syria

FXstreet.com (Lisbon) - Precious metals continued finally experienced a move higher Friday, after back-to-back days of weakness.

Gold targets jump over 1400

Gold prices surged Friday, helping alleviate a multi-day easing that has since relinquished the recent rally in the yellow metal. With the sour results of NFP in the US, gold price look to target 1400.00, a break of which could lead to 1417.00 and 1433.00. At the time of writing, gold prices are trading at USD $1386.92 per oz. Friday.

Silver eyes downside

Silver remained under pressure Friday, helped only by the recent advent of weak US data, given the approach of the 23.05 support level earlier today. Despite the rise, this region remains in focus, a break below this support should clear the way for further downside. The bearish scenario remains favored, so long as below 23.60-23.65, a break back above 23.65 will reverse the bias to bullish. The price of silver has now moved to USD $23.81 per oz. during US trading.

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Sep 06,2013

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[fxapex]

US having a positive economic figures....USD might rally a head

[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD strikes back above 1.3200

FXstreet.com (Athens)- The EUR/USD strikes back above 1.3200 gaining around 10 pips, as Syria’s tensions fade way, European yields calming down and…Sentix boosts confidence in Euro land.

The EUR/USD spikes above 1.3200; it might be a squeezing of positions taken from Friday’s NFP?

Earlier, at 8.30 GMT hours, the Sentix confidence data released at +6.5 versus -3.5 expected, a clear sign that sentiment is indeed turning in the Euro-Zone. Moreover, spreads in Euro land tend to calm down; elaborating on, German 10-year bond yield is trading 0.1 bps lower to 1.95%, while Spain benchmark yield is trading 0.9 bps lower to 4.51%. As it is taken for granted that the Fed will proceed in September with a gradual cutback of asset purchases (as otherwise might be problematic from a credibility perspective given Fed officials’ considerable efforts “communicate” tapering the recent months), investors should try to figure out news-flow arguing against a sustained stimulus reduction cycle through the year-end. What’s more, as long as news wires suggest that “UK and US share revulsion over the Syria attack, during joint press conference with US's Kerry,” it is well anticipated that the single currency might be find additional support. Needless to say, traders over the glove should take upon consideration the fact, that the pair might be still in an upwards trend, due on position "squeezing" since Friday's NFP's.

Technical Outlook and Strategic Bias on EUR/USD

Greg Moore on behalf of TD securities suggest that “EUR/USD has bounced a little further from the lows reached late last week, continuing with tone in the wake of Friday’s softer US jobs report. For the week ahead, Eurozone industrial production and CPI on Wednesday are the data highlights of the week, but the market will likely be more concerned with the Italian Senate talks on whether to expel Berlusconi (starting today at 9:00AM ET), the ECB’s Asmussen’s comments on Tuesday and Wednesday, and Eurogroup and Ecofin meetings at the end of the week. Overall, without too much significant on the calendar, consolidation could be the order of the week and that could see EUR/USD retrace a bit more recent slide. We continue to be bearish longer term however, and look to sell rallies to the mid-upper 1.32 area.” At the time of writing the pair is trading nearly 1.3216, up 0.12%. The FXstreet.com Trend Index shows the pair to be slightly bullish in the 15 minutes chart. Daily pivot point support can be found at S3:1.3182 S2: 1.3142 S3: 1.3116 and resistance at R1: 1.3245 R2:1.3277 R3: 1.3310, respectively.

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Sep 09,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CHF heads downwards as hedge funds bid in risk

FXstreet.com (Athens)- The USD/CHF is under heavy pressure due to the fact that risk-appetite is back “on” and EUR/USD..trades significantly higher.

The USD/CHF under pressure amidst Fed taper bets and EUR/USD uptrend behavior

It is taken for granted that the Fed will proceed in September with a gradual cutback of asset purchases (as otherwise might be problematic from a credibility perspective given Fed officials’ considerable efforts “communicate” tapering the recent months). However, we still do not know on what is likely to happen thereafter. Investors should be aware if the Fed’s president in San Franscisco Williams adopts a dovish or hawkish stance in his speech, as his comments amount to the last bit of “fed-speak” before Fed officials proceed with the final decision.

Technical Outlook on USD/CHF

Traders should never forget that there is a highly strong and negative correlation between the USD/CHF and the EUR/USD. Thus, since EUR/USD moved abruptly above 1.3200, the USD/CHF came under heavily pressure almost instantly. Thus, investors can take advantage of the two pair correlation, independently on what cross are interested in. At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.9339, down 0.40%. The FXstreet.com Trend Index shows the pair to be slightly bearish and extremely oversold in the 15 minutes framework. Daily pivot point support can be found at S3: 0.9307 S2: 0.9284 S1:0.9260 and resistance at R1:0.9417 R2:0.9441 R3:0.9464, respectively.

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Sep 09,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD bullish testing 1.3220 resistance

FXstreet.com (London) - EUR/USD had regained its positioning back in the 1.3200 handle, continuing on from Friday’s move to 1.3180 after the disappointing US jobs data.

EUR/USD opened on the bid and has continued through the figure exceeding September highs. The pair may find some resistance here meeting the May top on a quiet calendar. On Wednesday we will see CPI data for Germany. Then we have some jobless claims data for the US later in the week and Friday will bring Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

EUR/USD RSI above 70

The 20 DMA is 1.3282, the 50 DMA is 1.3203 and the 200 DAM is 1.3148. RSI (14) reads 77.55 and signals a consolidation period. Supports are ascending from 1.3051, 1.3126, 1.313,9 1.3154, 1.3171, and 1.3189. Spot is 1.3219 and resistances are 1.3225, 1.3237 and 1.3255.

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Sep 09,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: Equities notch impressive rally after Syria abates – Deutsche Bank

FXstreet.com (Lisbon) - Markets have continued with their impressive run and we've now seen 7 full business days in September and global equities have been higher for all of them and the S&P500 has not seen a down day since the last business day of August, notes Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank.

Key quotes

“A combination of falling crude prices (down 4% since Friday), a potential back down in the threat of a US military strike in Syria and yesterday’s firmer Chinese industrial production data combined to give the S&P500 (+0.73%) its longest winning streak since July.”

“In a prime time televised speech, Obama reiterated his moral arguments for action in Syria but said that he was willing to give diplomacy a chance to run its course. S&P500 futures responded positively to the President’s comments.”

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Sep 11,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: EUR/USD primed for bearishness – TD Securities

FXstreet.com (Lisbon) - German CPI data earlier was one of highlight Eurozone releases of the week, although an as-expected outcome and the bigger focus on Syrian developments left the EUR/USD in consolidation mode, notes the TD Securities Team.

Key quotes

“ECB Executive Board member Asmussen speaks again this afternoon (at 1:00PM ET) where he is likely to emphasize the downside case as he did yesterday. Echoing Draghi last week, Asmussen has reiterated that the ECB remains ready to act if conditions deteriorate.”

“Such comments could weigh on the EUR/USD in an otherwise quiet day for data. Syrian headlines, are of course the other main concern for EUR/USD and the FX space as a whole today. Broadly speaking, we remain bearish on the pair and as we outlined in a note yesterday, we think these levels mark the sell zone.”

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Sep 11,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY crashes over 30 pips to erase daily gains

FXstreet.com (Lisbon) - The USD/JPY foreign exchange rate took a tumble on the heels of US data Friday, by far its biggest movement of the day, crashing nearly over 30 pips in recent minutes.

In the United States, Retail Sales (MoM) grew only +0.2% in August, missing expectations of +0.4%. In addition, the Producer Price Index (YoY) has climbed +1.4% in August, beating estimates of only +1.3%.

USD/JPY technical levels

In these moments, the USD/JPY is now trading at 99.42, now incurring a loss of -0.11% off its opening. Given the present exchange, the USD/JPY will is offered support at 99.31, ahead of 99.11, and 98.95, notes the Danske Research Team.

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Sep 13,2013

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[jimmyjjohn]

The Stock Exchange of Thailand is drawing up its five-year strategic
plan, which targets more foreigners and retail players for long-term
investment.

Pakorn Peetathawatchai, executive vice president and
head of corporate strategy and finance at the SET, said the 2013-17 plan
would be a collaboration with other organisations including the
Association of Thai Securities Companies and the Association of
Investment Management Companies to ensure the long-term sustainability
of the market structure.

"The Thai stock market has remained very
satisfactory in the first four months. What we have to do is to keep
this performance for the long term with more stability. We have had
discussions to some extent and expected to finalise the plan soon,"
Pakorn said.

The basic strategy is to retain retail investors,
who account for 65 per cent of total investors in the Thai bourse, for
as long as possible with consistent investment. Historically, of 100 new
accounts, about 50 have been active in trading.

As investors
change their picks from SET50 to SET100 or non-SET 100, more analysis
about smaller stocks is required to support the investors of these
stocks.

The proportion of retail investors in the stock market
has also recently increased from 55 per cent to present 65 per cent
because of more new entries. Foreign and domestic institutional
investors have also participated more.

The SET and related
organisations will strive to add more Thai stocks to the MSCI ex-Japan
index as most long-term foreign investors focus on the MSCI as a
reference. Currently, 22 Thai stocks are included in the
MSCI.

"Having
more Thai stocks in the MSCI will help boost liquidity, as more will
invest. Late last year, the Thai stock market had a weight of 3.2 per
cent in the MSCI, and now the weight is 3.7 per cent, adding liquidity
of Bt2 billion to Bt3 billion," Pakorn said. Late this month, the MSCI
will be reviewed and about five or six more Thai stocks should comply
with the index's requirements.

[OctaFX_Farid]

Markets buoyed by Yellen, "Insert 'Summers Over' gag here"

FXstreet.com (London) - Markets this morning jumped on news that Larry Summers, the favourite to take over from Ben Bernanke, had withdrawn his name from the race to be the next Fed Chairman. In his absence, Janet Yellen has come to the forefront, having been previously tipped to take the top job at the US central bank before Bernanke was re-nominated by Barack Obama in 2009.

Markets dependent on a steady stream of cheap money from the Federal Reserve were buoyant on the change in the running. Summers had been seen as a hawk who would move to tighten the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, however Yellen is seen much more in the Bernanke mould, ready to take a monetary activist stance to manipulate the economy and to keep the taps open on QE to inflate stock prices.

It should, however, be noted that Summers withdrew from the race following Democrat opposition not to his monetary stance, or his perceived-monetary stance, but to his corporate ties and his involvement in the events surrounding the 2008 crash. In July, when it became apparent that Summers was front running to take the Fed job, about a third of the 54-member Democratic caucus in the Senate signed a letter to Obama endorsing Yellen. Although the letter did not attack Summers specifically, it stressed Yellen’s “solid record as a bank regulator” and “willingness to challenge conventional wisdom regarding deregulation” – a not-so-veiled attack on Summers deregulatory stance pre-2008.

In a letter to President Obama, Summers said that “I have reluctantly concluded that any possible confirmation process for me would be acrimonious and would not serve the interests of the Federal Reserve, the administration, or ultimately, the interests of the nation’s ongoing economic recovery.”

While the markets seem to have responded in no uncertain terms to Summers exit from the running for the Fed job, just what difference would a Yellen chairmanship fundamentally make to monetary policy? It is also worth remembering that Yellen is not a foregone conclusion – Obama may still choose to throw Roger Ferguson, Donald Kohn or even Tim Geithner into the mix.

The bond markets certainly seemed unambiguous about the difference that Yellen would make over Summers – 10 year Treasuries shed 8bps on the news, on lowering worries of an aggressive tapering of the QE infinity, and the current $45bn of asset purchases made by the Fed each month, artificially depressing Treasury yields.

Yellen, currently Vice Chairman of the Fed, leads the committee on Fed communication, and has taken the lead on changes to the way that the central bank communicates information to the markets - introducing post-meeting press conferences and forward guidance on policy rates and quantitative easing.

But Fed internal policies aside, Yellen is a Keynesian monetary activist and quick to step in with a heavy hand to regulate markets – there is no coincidence that she has been pushed so heavily by the left-leaning Democrat caucus. It is unavoidable that the Fed will have to ease off its quantitative easing programme – but, if successful, Yellen will undoubtedly be slower to take her foot off the gas than Summers. And to an equities market bloated by cheep cash, and to a Treasury market artificially depressed by asset purchases, any extra time that they can be supported by the Fed is good news all round.

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Sep 16,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US sells $30 bn in 3-month bills at 0.010%

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Sep 16,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US sells $30 bn in 3-month bills at 0.010%

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Sep 16,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/NZD looking toppy; highs 0.8230

FXstreet.com (London) - The NZD/USD reached a high of 0.8230 on a broad based dollar sell off, breaching into the 0.8200 handle but has since ducked into 0.8180 territory again.

The Hawk, Larry Summers’, withdrawal from being considered as the next Fed Chairman and the possibility that the Dove, Janet Yellen, may be the person for the job has lead to the dollar dropping significantly towards significant levels in dollar crosses. Markets are expecting a longer term in current accommodative policies. Meanwhile, this week will hold a number of key events with Fed Interest Rate Decision to CPI’s for the US. NZ sees Q2 GDP and Aug net migration.

NZD and RBNZ risk

With the pair remaining bid on the back of a hawkish stance from the RBNZ of late, research teams at Westpac said there are a couple of reasons at least for market participants to continue to expect opportunities. “A modest taper at the FOMC this week is fully priced, and given US data has been spotty lately, the risk is US interest rates (and in turn NZ rates) briefly correct lower. Investors could benefit tactically, while borrowers could benefit strategically by paying the dip”.

USD/NZD levels

The 20 DMA is .7915, the 50 DMA is .7931 and the 200 DMA is .8184. RSI (14) 51.45. Supports are ascending from .8074, .8095, .8125 and .8170. Spot is currently 0.8188 while resistances are coming in at .8198, .8256, .8273, .8302 and .8318.

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Sep 16,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US NAHB Housing Market Index stays unchanged at 58 in September

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Sep 17,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD under mild pressure

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - After failing to overcome the 1.3370 area, EUR/USD came under mild pressure and trimmed daily gains at the beginning of the American session, although it remains well within its recent range.

EUR/USD remains capped by 1.3370

Even though EUR/USD was boosted by better-than-expected ZEW German data, the euphoria quickly faded. EUR/USD retreated to the 1.3340 area before finding support and it was last around 1.3350, still up 0.1% on the day. Neither US CPI nor the NAHB housing market index had much impact on the pair as investors refrain from taking big positions ahead of the conclusion of the 2-day Fed policy meeting.

EUR/USD holds the bullish bias

From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com notes that the pair maintains the bullish bias, but adds that only strong accelerations above 1.3385 will expose the 1.3450 area.

Bednarik locates next resistances at 1.3385, 1.3420 and 1.3450, while she sees supports at 1.3320, 1.3285 and 1.3240.

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Sep 17,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD eyes 1.5880 support and lower

FXstreet.com (London) - GBP/USD had jumped to 1.5965 from a gap in the charts on the open in markets this week but has since lost its form back below 1.5900 level.

This has been a dollar weakness story so far with the Hawk, Larry Summers’, withdrawal from being considered as the next Fed Chairman and the possibility that the Dove, Janet Yellen, may in fact be the person for the job. Therefore, markets are expecting a longer term in current accommodative policies. The week ahead is jam packed with events that could either increase the appetite for 1.6000 in the pair or reduce risk back to support 1.5880/20 in the near term.

GBP/USD levels

Indicators suggest momentum has slowed down. The 20 DMA is 1.5645, the 50 DMA is 1.5452 and the 200 DMA is 1.5487. Supports are ascending from 1.5819, 1.5835, 1.5869 and 1.5885. Spot is currently 1.5906 while resistances are 1.5920, 1.5937, 1.5970, 1.5992, 1.6010, 1.6040 and 1.6080.

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Sep 17,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/JPY oscillates around 132.00

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - Despite the consolidative tone prevailing in financial markets, the Yen has managed to secure gains versus its major competitors, dragging EUR/JPY below the 132.00 mark Wednesday.

However, the EUR/JPY managed to find buyers at the 131.85 zone and bounced, although with the recovery capped by the 100-hour SMA, the cross was confined to a phase of consolidation. At time of writing, EUR/JPY is trading around 132.00, where it records a 0.3% loss on the day (following 2 days of gains).

EUR/JPY supports and resistances

As for technical levels, next supports could be found at 131.85 (daily low) and 131.60 (Sep 16 low), while on the other hand resistances line up at 132.25 (100-hour SMA) and 132.60 (daily high).

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Sep 18,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Canada: Wholesale Sales rose 1.5% in July

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -Canadian Wholesale Sales rose 1.5% on a monthly basis during July, surpassing forecasts at 1.0% and improving June’s 2.8% drop (revised).

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Sep 19,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Oil rises after Fed keeps its foot on the gas, inventories down

FXstreet.com (London) - WTI has been driven to one-week highs on the back of yesterday’s announcement that the US Federal Reserve would not be going ahead with expected plans to taper its monthly asset purchases. This was combined with reports that US inventories had fallen faster than expected.

News that the Federal Reserve would not be taking its foot off the gas with its ultra-loose monetary policy aimed at stimulating the economy of the US, the world’s largest oil consumer, rallied oil prices. WTI October contracts currently stand at USD107.70/barrel, having hit highs of USD108.99.

November Brent prices currently stand at USD109.79/barrel, after hitting highs of USD111.26.

The spread between US WTI contracts and European Brent has declined to USD2.27, a six-week low.

According to data released by the Energy Information Administration, US crude inventories have slid to 355.6 million. The seasonally adjusted annual fall of 4.368m barrels was a sharp increase on -0.219m in the preceding month. Analysts had expected inventories to fall -1.394m.

The squeeze on US supplies has tightened the WTI-Brent spread, which had preciously traded at a USD19 premium on Syrian tensions combined with US oversupply.

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Sep 19,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY holding over key support

FXstreet.com (London) - USD/JPY has taken out key resistance that now comes as support in 99.40 territory, with the pair currently sitting at 99.55 and looking comfortable.

USD/JPY got a lift from better data from the US. The US reported initial jobless claims rose to 309K last week, beating expectations, while the current account deficit contracted to 98.89B in the Q2.

USD/JPY Levels

The 20 DMA is 98.97, the 50 DMA is 98.64 and the 200 DMA is 95.88. RSI (14) reads 72.00. Supports are ascending from 97.29, 97.45, 97.65, 97.76, 98.57, 98.79 and 99.12. Spot is 99.55. The pair eyes 100.00/60 for September highs.

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Sep 19,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Gold driven back down on Bullard comments, "taper bounce" fades

FXstreet.com (London) - Gold has continued its decline today, pushed lower by hints from St Louis Fed chairman and FOMC voting member James Bullard that a small tapering of the Fed’s monthly asset purchases might be possible in October.

The gold price had seen some recovery earlier in the week, when the news that the Fed would not be going ahead of the much-anticipated tapering of its monthly asset purchases pushed up prices.

Gold currently stands at USD1338.30/oz, with potential for further downside.

The yellow metal has lost its shine in recent months as investors seek yield as global macro data strengthens and volatility abates.

It had been driven to historic record highs in September 2011 as a combination of European uncertainty, US debt ceiling deadlock and Middle Eastern tensions combined to make the perfect storm for haven flows into the safety of gold.

Though the threat of US debt ceiling bickering is once again o the horizon, increasing global confidence is going to make any upside support for gold very unlikely.

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Sep 20,2013

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