OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis

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US Chicago Fed National Activity Index up to 0.14 in September from 0.13

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Nov 12,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: MBA Mortgage Applications fell 0.5%

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The Mortgage Bankers Association has informed that US citizens that applied for mortgage loans fell 0.5% in the week ended on November 8, up from the previous drop of 0.7%.

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Nov 13,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Sterling surges on BoE report and robust jobs numbers

FXstreet.com (London) - Sterling has surged this morning on strong jobs numbers as well as a forward revision of interest rate forecasts. GBP/USD has climbed 0.48 percent to USD1.5980, undoing yesterday’s losses.

In its Inflation Report, the Bank of England has forward-revised its forecasts for the date at which the UK unemployment rate will drop below the 7 percent threshold. As part of the BoE forward-guidance programme, BoE governor Mark Carney has stated that the MPC will consider raising base rates from their current record-low 0.5 percent level.

In the first inflation report since Carney introduced forward guidance in August, policy makers also cut the near-term prediction for inflation. The MPC now sees consumer price index inflation dropping below its 2 percent target by the first quarter of 2015.

The report from the BoE quickly followed UK labour market data from the Office for National Statistics, which showed that joblessness fell to 7.6 percent in the three months through September.

Expectations of declining inflation will provide some respite for households that have seen a long-running decline in real wages. This morning’s jobs report from the ONS showed wage rises had slowed to 0.7 percent in the third quarter from 0.8 percent.

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Nov 13,2013

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USD/JPY falls down to intra-day low at 99.30

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The USD is extending its decline from 1-month high at 99.78 vs the Japanese Yen and after falling 30 pips in the latest couple of hours, the USD/JPY has just tested intra-day lows at 99.30.

Currently, the USD/JPY is trading at 99.40, 0.28% negative on the day. The short term perspective remains slightly bearish according to the FXstreet.com trend index in the 1-hour chart. The MACD, CCI and Momentum indicators are pointing to the south while the Stochastic is neutral.

USD/JPY technicals

Below the 99.30, the USD/JPY could face supports at 99.10 and 98.90. On the upside, resistances are at 99.60, 99.70 and 99.80.

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Nov 13,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD trades close to 1.6100, buy stops at 1.6120

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - After jumping around 100 pips in the latest few hours from 1.5990, the GBP/USD is now approaching to the 1.6100 key level with the pair pricing a fresh intra-week high at 1.6090.

The GBP/USD is now trading at 1.6085, 0.37% positive on the day. The short term perspective remains slightly bullish according to the FXstreet.com trend index in the 1-hour chart. CCI and momentum are pointing to the north while the Stochastic and the MACD are neutrals.

GBP/USD levels

Talks report that there is a large buy stops gathering around 1.6120 and more through 1.6165. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD could see resistances at 1.6100, 1.6120 and 1.6140. On the downside, the cable would face supports at 1.6000, 1.5965 and 1.5890.

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Nov 14,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: EUR/USD is weak, but still within Wednesday’s range - Scotiabank

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank notes that EUR/USD is weak, down -0.4% since yesterday’s close, but still trading within Wednesday’s range.

Key Quotes

European growth releases were mixed, as expected in Germany at 03% QoQ and 0.6% YoY, and disappointing from France, and flirting with recession in the wider Eurozone with GDP at 0.1% QoQ and -0.4% YoY.”

“The growth outlook for the US and the Eurozone is beginning to diverge, with the Q3 prints suggesting there is too little optimism priced in for the US and too much for Europe.”

“This is an important shift and one that is likely to support the USD. Tomorrow’s CPI (final) release for October will be important for judging the ECB’s path from here.”.

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Nov 14,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD jumps to 2-month highs at 1.0525

The US Dollar is trading higher against its Canadian counterpart in the American session and after jumping around 35 pips in the last hour the USD/CAD has broken above the 1.0510 and reached fresh highest since September 4th at 1.0525.

The USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.0512, 0.50% positive on the day. The short term perspective remains slightly bullish according to the FXstreet.com trend index in the 1-hour chart. MACD, CCI and Momentum are pointing to the north while the Stochastic is bearish.

Above the 1.0525, next resistances come at 1.0550 and 1.0565. On the downside, supports are at 1.0500, 1.0480 and 1.0440.

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Nov 14,2013

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US EIA Crude Oil Stocks change up to 2.64M in November 8 from 1.577M

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Nov 14,2013

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Canada September Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities increase to $8.36B vs $2.08B (August)

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Nov 18,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Troika continues talks with Greek officials

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - According to a Greek finance ministry spokesman, the EU, ECB and IMF representatives have wrapped up the bailout talks with Greek officials for today. He assured that all pending issues have been discussed and that the 2014 budget would be presented on Thursday.

The aim of the negotiations was to reach an agreement on the 2014 budget cuts, which would allow for the release of the next tranche of aid for the indebted country.

Finance minister Yannis Stournaras tried to convince the international lenders that the recently uncovered 1.5 billion euro budget shortfall for next year does not mean that further austerity measures should be implemented. The Troika inspectors on the other hand believed that the gap cannot be covered with savings coming only from structural reforms.

The international creditors pushed for more wage and pension cuts, which could prove to be too much of a burden for the Greeks and could lead to an aggravation of social unrest.

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Nov 18,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: US events today on GBP/USD breaching highs – Danske Bank

FXstreet.com (London) - GBP/USD has notably taken out recent highs through 1.6120 which brings the 1.62 handle into focus. Danske Bank analyst's note main events today from the calendar.

Key Quotes:

“In the data calendar the main event is the NAHB housing index in the US that is the first indicator for the strength of the US housing market in November”.

“Fed's William Dudley (voter, dove) and Charles Plosser (voter, dove) are both scheduled to speak. Dudley's speech will be the most important as his views are believed to be close to Ben Bernanke's and Janet Yellen's”.

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Nov 18,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: Net Long-Term TIC Flows rise to $25.5B in September

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - US Net Long-term TIC Flows grew to $25.5B in June, above the forecast of rising to $21.3B and following a reading of $-9.8B in August, the US Department of Treasury reported on Monday.

Total Net TIC Flows plunged to $-106.8B from $-13.8B.

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Nov 18,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY failing below the 100.00 handle

FXstreet.com (London) - USD/JPY had been pushing back above the 100.00 handle last week reaching 100.45 ahead of 100.60 resistance and started to tail off on Fridays session into the close with no extension in the Nikkei.

USD/JPY has met further supply on the open of this weeks session pushing through 100.00. The pair has printed a gap on the charts from 100.20 to 100.00 and recorded a low of 99.79. The market is however still long USD/JPY as noted by the 20% increase in YEN shorts last week in IMM data, so buying dips might remain the theme with support in 99.70/80 and 99.40/50. From the calendar, the main event according to Danske Bank analysts is the NAHB housing index in the US which is the first indicator for the strength of the US housing market in November. Also, they note, Fed's William Dudley (voter, dove) and Charles Plosser (voter, dove) are both scheduled to speak. “Dudley's speech will be the most important as his views are believed to be close to Ben Bernanke's and Janet Yellen's”.

USD/JPY Levels

The 20 DMA is 98.55, the 50 DMA is 98.50 and the 200 DMA is 97.91. RSI (14) reads 43.24. supports are ascending from 99.37, 99.56, 99.73 and 99.93. Spot is currently 99.98 while resistances are 100.47, 100.62, 101.05 and 101.30.

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Nov 18,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: USD modestly weak on Yellen – BTMU

FXstreet.com (London) - Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ notes the performance of the dollar index.

Key Quotes:

"The US dollar has continued to weaken modestly in the Asian trading session

with the dollar index falling back towards support from its 55-day moving

average which comes in at 80.55".

"Over the last two years the dollar index has traded largely within a narrow range between the 78.00 and 84.00 levels, with the US dollar continuing to lack clear direction against the other major currencies in the near-term".

"Fed Chair-elect Janet Yellen’s dovish tone at last week’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee is still weighing modestly upon the US dollar in the near-term".

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Nov 18,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: NAHB Housing Market Index unchanged in November

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The US NAHB Housing Market Index remained steady at 54 in November, according to data released by the National Association of Home Builders. Analysts expected the indicator to edge up a notch to 55.

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Nov 18,2013

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EUR/USD falters ahead of 1.3550

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD has kept pushing higher during the New York session, printing fresh 2-week highs helped by broad US stocks gains.

EUR/USD rises to fresh 2-week highs

US National Association of Home Builders Index was unchanged at 54 in November from a downwardly revised October reading, missing expectations of 55. The EUR/USD broke above 1.3530 and stretched to its highest level since Nov 6 at 1.3540 in recent dealings. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.3530, recording a 0.3% rise Monday.

EUR/USD technical outlook

From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com notes that EUR/USD keeps a positive tone but says the pair needs to consolidate gains above 1.3550 to actually define a bullish trend.

EUR/USD technical levels

In terms of technical levels, the EUR/USD could find next resistances at 1.3547 (Nov 6 high) and 1.3578 (20-day high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.3473 (daily low), 1.3430 (Nov 15 low) and 1.3400 (daily low).

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Nov 18,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: GBP going rising on central banks? – RBS

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FXstreet.com (London) - RBS Global Banking and Markets team said they see Sterling rising.

Key Quotes:

“This week's minutes from the November MPC are expected to show that the decision to keep policy unchanged was unanimous. Overall, the MPC's policy stance appears to have entrenched around neutrality”.

“…however, the tone of Weale's comments towards the back end of last week may suggest that the minutes will show a greater degree of views than the market expects”.

“We believe that the recent out-performance of UK data and the apparent indifference of the BoE MPC to the associated tightening of monetary conditions will continue to play GBP positive”.

“With Fed Chairman-elect Yellen deciding not to throw a policy curve-ball last week and the discussion around the ECB inching towards Credit Easing, we see GBP/USD rising”.

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Nov 18,2013

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US: Initial Jobless Claims fell to 323K

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - According to the Labour Department, the Americans that filed in their first initial claims for regular state unemployment-insurance benefits fell by 21K last week to a seasonally adjusted 323K in the week ended November 15, below expectations at 335K and coming from 344K (revised from 339K) in the previous print. Continuing claims, which reflect people already receiving benefits, rose by 66K to a seasonally adjusted 2.876 million in the week ended November 8 vs. 2.810 million in the previous week (revised).

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Nov 21,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: PPI dropped 0.2% MoM in October

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The Labour Department reported that Producer prices contracted 0.2% MoM during October, matching expectations and down from September’s -0.1%. Over the last twelve months, prices have matched estimates at 0.3%. Ex food and energy, prices rose 0.2% MoM and 1.4% YoY, vs. the median at 0.1% and 1.3% respectively.

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Nov 21,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD eases to 1.6120

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - After hitting fresh session highs just above 1.6140, the GBP/USD is now retreating to the 1.6125/20 post-US data.

GBP/USD capped by 1.6140

The pair’s bullish momentum seems to have run out of steam in the vicinity of 1.6140 on Thursday, dragged lower by a better tone from the greenback. Data wise in the UK, the public sector figures came in above forecasts, with the Public Sector Net Borrowing climbing to £6.383 billion during October. Releases in the US economy were USD-supportive, showing lower Initial Claims (323K vs. 344K prev.) and Core Producer Prices above estimates.

GBP/USD levels to consider

At the moment the pair is up 0.14% at 1.6130 with the next hurdle at 1.6178 (high Nov.20) followed by 1.6207 (high Oct.28) and then 1.6248 (high Oct.25). On the downside, a breach of 1.6072 (low Nov.21) would open the door to 1.6068 (MA30d) and then 1.6060 (low Nov.19).

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Nov 21,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD extending losses; A big mover

FXstreet.com (London) - There has been some price action from Asia and another big mover was the AUD.

AUD/USD sold off by 0.7% to 0.9267 and also drove NZD lower. Marcin Budkiewicz , Strategist, Rates and FX Research at TD Securities said, ‘Part of this was driven by RBA Governor Stevens, who mulled FX intervention, saying that “our position has long been, and remains, that foreign exchange intervention can, judiciously used in the right circumstances, be effective and useful.”” AUD/USD has extended losses throughout the European session and into North American data releases. US Initial Jobless Claims improved from 323k vs the 335k consensus. PPI came in line at 0.3% while PPI ex food and energy year on year was up slightly vs consensus at 1.4% vs 1.3%.

AUD/USD Levels

The 20 DMA is 0.9443, the 50 DMA is 0.9445 and the 200 DMA is 0.9651. RSI (14) reads 23.49. Supports are ascending from 0.9196 and 0.9234. Spot is currently 0.9254 and resistances are 0.9282, 0.9301, 0.9378, 0.9418, 0.9448, 0.9482

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Nov 21,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: EUR/USD turning lower – TDS

FXstreet.com (London) - A research team at TD Securities noted that the EUR/USD traded in a very narrow range for most of the overnight session, but in recent hours has been boosted, taking back some of yesterday’s losses.

Key Quotes:

“The trigger for yesterday’s selloff was a headline suggesting that negative deposit rates was an option for the ECB, but that was nothing new, and in a speech this morning Draghi reaffirmed that the thinking has not changed since the last policy meeting”.

“Draghi’s comments managed to overshadow the preliminary PMI numbers for November, which on balance were mixed”.

“Overall, a weak turn in EZ economic activity does not bode well for the EUR while data elsewhere in the developed world continues to hold up. Today’s US data will be viewed in that context”.

“On the charts, yesterday’s large bearish outside-range day for EUR/USD does significant damage to the rebound of the last week, and suggests rallies should be limited in the short term. Resistance above is spotted near 1.3500, while 1.3400/25 is the nearest short term support to watch. Below there it could be a quicker slide toward 1.3300”.

AUD/USD Levels

The 20 DMA is 0.9443, the 50 DMA is 0.9445 and the 200 DMA is 0.9651. RSI (14) reads 23.49. Supports are ascending from 0.9196 and 0.9234. Spot is currently 0.9254 and resistances are 0.9282, 0.9301, 0.9378, 0.9418, 0.9448, 0.9482

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Nov 21,2013

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Greek PM Samaras sees no fiscal shortfall for 2014

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Greek PM Antonis Samaras visited Berlin on Friday to hold a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and discuss Greece's progress on its bailout commitments. The Greek leader said he did not see a shortfall in Greece's aid program and assured that the country would not ask for any additional funds.

Samaras expressed hope that the negotiations with the Troika international lenders would end soon. He assured that Greece would continue implementing the necessary reforms in order to receive the next tranche of aid.

Angela Merkel admitted that Greece had made considerable progress in implementing reforms, which would be evident in the primary surplus. She acknowledged the sacrifices made by the Greeks and urged the country to deliver on its commitments as this is the only way further funds could be released.

"And what I am taking away from everything discussed today is that it's not very easy but it's doable," the German Chancellor said.

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Nov 22,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD resists above 0.9150

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD extended losses into a third consecutive day Friday after being rejected from a 2-week high of 0.9447 Wednesday, weighed by Fed minutes and RBA jawboning.

RBA Governor Stevens highlighted Thursday the bank could use intervention to weaken the AUD having said repeatedly that a strong currency could be harmful for the economy. The AUD/USD broke below yet another psychological level during the European session and printed a 2 ½-month low of 0.9153.

AUD/USD prints fifth weekly loss in a row

At time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at the 0.9160 zone, 0.8% lower on the day. The Australian dollar is on track to post its fifth weekly loss in a row, having dropped almost 600 pips from late Oct highs.

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Nov 22,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY stuck at 101.20

FXstreet.com (Chicago) - USD/JPY retraced from 101.37 session highs advancing small pips today after a remarkable week that prints over 100 pips in gains so far ahead of the closing of Wall Street.

USD/JPY Technical Levels

Technically speaking, the pair remains within yesterday’s boundaries despite bearish pressure that makes the price stall around the 101.20 zone. On long-term charts, the movement is supported by bullish trends that consolidate a strong rally that started two days ago after the release of better than expected job market data in the US. Offered at 101.25, the pair navigates between the supports aligned at 100.87 (September 20th highs), 100.43 (November 15th highs) followed by 99.78 (November 12th highs) and the resistances aligned at 101.61 (July 2nd highs), 102.64 (May 30th highs) followed by 103.72 (May 17th highs).

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Nov 22,2013

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