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GBP/USD looking for a close in the 1.6000’s

FXstreet.com (London) - GBP/USD has had a bounce from 1.5860/90 support and is up 0.41% at 1.6041.

GBP/USD would be looking for a close above 1.5980 for a broader move in the 1.6050/75 area while on the data, services PMI were in line with consensus. The NIESR report suggests the BOE may not wait for 7% unemployment before hiking and this too has had some impact. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) are coming up from the US a little later on while the market anticipates BoE Thursday and NFP’s at the end of the week. Key supports remain in the September break up points, 1.5935 1.5894 and 1.5844.

GBP/USD Levels

The 20 DMA is 1.6064, the 50 DMA is 1.5948 and the 200 DM is 1.5487. RSI (14) reads 77.46. Supports are ascending from 1.5829, 1.5844, 1.5869, 1.5894, 1.5935, 1.5977, 1.5999 and 1.6015. Spot is currently 1.6041 and resistances are 1.6046 and 1.6079.

Nov 05,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

欧洲央行康斯坦西奥：欧洲银行业有在不加剧“大而不倒”问题的同时进行一些整固的空间

Forex21.cn—欧洲央行康斯坦西奥：欧洲银行业有在不加剧“大而不倒”问题的同时进行一些整固的空间。

** Forex21.cn 新闻编辑部，FXstreet.com **

Nov 05,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: AUD is uncomfortably high – Rabobank

FXstreet.com (London) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank said that the RBA Governor Stevens was again successful in talking down the AUD overnight.

Key Quote:

“Although the decision by the RBA to leave rates on hold was expected by the market, the comment that the AUD was “uncomfortably high” succeeded in undermining the currency”.

“On balance we expect that while hopes that the Fed will delay tapering could support AUD/USD on a 3 month view that the AUD will be vulnerable into 2014”.

“On a 12 month view we see risk that AUD/USD could revisit this year’s low in the 0.88 region”.

Nov 05,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: The ECB doing homework, EUR/USD to weaken through trendline? – Societe Generale

FXstreet.com (London) - Sebastien Galy, analyst at Societe Generale said that the ECB published a paper on the feasibility of counter cyclical buffers this morning, ahead of the ECB meeting. In the business of signalling, this is stating we are doing our homework.

Key Quotes:

“Parts of core Europe housing market will eventually need these counter cyclical buffer and it might be the price to pay to agree to a rat cut, one would presume. A few months ago, officials were crystal clear that they had done their home work extensively on the implication of a rate cut on financial instruments, the financial system and the linkage between rates and other financial assets. Our economists expect a rate cut in Dec which seems to be where consensus is heading”.

“Has the FX market already priced this in? In good part, but the temptation to break below the EURUSD upward trending channel will probably be too strong. A rate cut will encourage more flows into the Euro periphery likely leading to a stabilization of eurusd in a wide range”.

“UK data continues to be very solid helping EURGBP to gap down towards the 0.84 support. While a consolidation is now likely the market is likely to trend lower after this period on a continued divergence between the UK and EU business cycle”.

Nov 05,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD slightly lower due to the US dismal consumer spending report

FXstreet.com (Athens) – The USD/CAD grinds slightly lower after the US Redbook weekly sales released at dismal levels.

The USD/CAD was hovering around 1.0453 area, before the release of the US consumer spending report, which revealed a second weekly soft US consumer spending report regarding for the US economy. Thus, it could be well taken for granted that the Fed will remain on hold since the continuing soft data does not leave the US Central Bank much option. Briefly, the cross lost a slight ground as of 20 pips (1.0424), but the past couple of minutes managed to pare the largest portion of its losses, hovering around 1.0440 area.

Technical Aspects on the USD/CAD

It is noteworthy to mention that a decent daily break of the support of 1.0422 (23.6% Fib ret.) could expose the pair further downwards to the area as of 1.0376 (38.2% Fib). Greg Moore on behalf of TD Securities mentions that “USD/CAD tested the 1.04 level yesterday but there was no real appetite to push the USD significantly lower and that might well be the extent of the USD dip for the moment. In the context of relatively subdued ranges elsewhere, the USD/CAD rebound looked quite impressive to us and we think the market has done enough to signal a firmer short-term base at 1.0400/20 now.”

Nov 05,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

澳储行陷入两难

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Nov 05,2013

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Canada September Building Permits (MoM) improves to 1.7%

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Nov 06,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/CAD shows little attention to Canadian data

FXstreet.com (Athens) – The EUR/CAD did not pay much attention on the worse Canadian data ahead of the crucial ECB conference.

The EUR/CAD might be mostly focused on what Draghi will say tomorrow; thus, the cross was muted on worse than expected Canadian building permits. Canadian building permits rebounded slower than expected in September, up 0.2% from the previous September as of 2012.

Technical Aspects on the EUR/CAD

Stephen Gallo on behalf of BMO FX Strategy suggests that “…EUR/CAD has once again bounced off the strong support around 1.4050/1.4060… A break back through 1.4125 should induce further demand. We are still of the view that CAD will gradually weaken in to the end of this year..”

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Nov 06,2013

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EUR/USD consolidates below 1.3530

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The advance of the euro against the dollar propelled by Germany factory orders data stalled at the 1.3530 zone, confining EUR/USD to a phase of consolidation over the last hours.

EUR/USD finds resistance at 1.3530

Even though the EUR/USD managed to print a fresh weekly high of 1.3531 Wednesday, it remains within familiar ranges as investors refrain from taking big positions ahead of the European Central Bank decision tomorrow and the US NFP Friday. At time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at the 1.3505 area, recording a 0.2% gain on the day.

What if ECB doesn't deliver?

Regarding the ECB decision, the BBH analyst team commented that the "EUR/USD has so far been unable to break below $1.3450 this week, and if the ECB doesn't deliver a cut as some expect, the pair could see a bit of a bounce to end the week".

EUR/USD technical levels

As for technical levels, EUR/USD could find immediate resistances at 1.3531 (daily high) and 1.3589 (Nov 1 high) followed by 1.3600 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.3466 (daily low) and 1.3442 (Nov 4 low).

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Nov 06,2013

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EUR/USD jumps to 1.3545 as ECB wouldn't cut rates tomorrow

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The Euro got a push from news in the last minutes as rumors ECB officials sources say a rate cut not likely tomorrow event amid inflation dip.

Against the US Dollar, the Euro has jumped around 45 pips in the latest few minutes from 1.3500 to break above the 1.3530 area and price at 1.3545. Currently the EUR/USD is moving at 1.3540, 0.50% positive on the day.

EUR/USD technical levels

As for technical levels, the EUR/USD could find immediate resistances at 1.3565 and 1.3590 (Nov 1 high) followed by 1.3635. On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.3466 (daily low) and 1.3442 (Nov 4 low).

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Nov 06,2013

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EUR/GBP slightly higher after BoE

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - As expected the BoE decision didn't take market by surprise having little impact on the pound, which only weakened slightly in the wake of the statement.

The BoE decided to maintain its key lending rate at 0.5% and the QE amount at £375 billion. The EUR/GBP advanced a few pips and retested daily highs at 0.8411 from 0.8402 pre-BoE, but momentum was lacking as it remains to be seen what the European Central Bank has to say. At time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading at the 0.8410 area, 0.1% above its opening price.

EUR/GBP technical levels

In terms of technical levels, if EUR/GBP breaks above 0.8410, next resistances are seen at 0.8415 (Nov 6 high) and 0.8463 (Nov 5 high), while below 0.8400 supports could be found at 0.8377 (Nov 6 low) and 0.8365 (Oct 3 low).

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Nov 07,2013

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US 3Q Gross Domestic Product Annualized increase to 2.8% vs 2.5% (2Q)

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Nov 07,2013

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ECB's Draghi: Rate cut in line with forward guidance

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The ECB Governing Council decided to cut the main interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.25% at their November monetary policy meeting. During the subsequent press conference the ECB head Mario Draghi stated that the move was in line with the central bank´s forward guidance policy.

The president raised worries about deflation risks in the Eurozone, saying that inflation in the area could remain low for a prolonged period of time, before gradually returning to the ECB´s target level of 2%. Therefore, the monetary policy stance will be kept accommodative for as long as necessary.

Mario Draghi also hinted at the possibility of further rate cuts by indicating that Eurozone borrowing costs would remain at low levels until an improvement in economic conditions is noted. He declared that the ECB would continue conducting the 3-month LTROs at least until Q2 2015, as well as MROs, as fixed rate tender procedures, at least until July 2015. Furthermore, he said that the central bank has a wide range of instruments at its disposal, which could be activated whenever needed.

The ECB head acknowledged the end of the 18-month recession in the Eurozone, emphasizing however that growth remains weak. He quoted the continuing uncertainty on financial markets as one of the main threats, along with “higher commodity prices, weaker than expected domestic demand and export growth, and slow or insufficient implementation of structural reforms in euro area countries.”

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Nov 07,2013

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EUR/USd Euro remains under pressure following ECB rate cut

FXstreet.com (London) - The euro remains under pressure after the European Central Bank went wrong-footed recent expectations and cut its main refinancing rate to a record-low 0.25 percent. The move came as part of an effort to stymie deflationary pressure within the Eurozone.

EUR/USD bounced off resistance at USD1.3300 after its biggest fall in two years. It rebounded to USD1.3377, undoing a fraction of the rapid losses, but has once again come under selling pressure. The pair is now trading at USD1.3364, down 1.1 percent on the day.

The ECB stepped in to try and ease European credit conditions after weak macro data indicated a stalling of and recovery within the area. Last week inflation numbers for September missed expectations, printing at 0.7 percent year-on-year, undershooting expectations of a 1.1 percent rise in prices. Eurostat also upward revised previous unemployment statistics from 12.0 to 12.2, undoing any optimism that the European labour market was strengthening.

While the ECB does not have the option at its disposal of aggressive quantitative easing programmes as have been pursued by the Fed and the Bank of England, it does have the LTRO option which it may now exercise.

On cutting the refi rate, ECB president Mario Draghi said that the central bank was not targeting exchange rates. But while a 25bps drop will do little to directly ease deflationary pressures, the statement echoes many of Bank of Japan president Haruhiko Kuroda’s words as the BoJ steps up asset purchases that knock unwanted strength out of the yen.

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Nov 07,2013

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EUR/GBP reverts back to pre-UK data levels

FXstreet.com (Athens) – The EUR/GBP pared back almost all of its earlier gains on dismal UK data, indicating that the movement was nothing else, but a short-squeeze.

The EUR/GBP is getting slightly back to its prior levels around 0.8345 area. Elaborating on, the EUR/GBP spiked higher near 0.8360 area, as soon as the UK trade deficit rose more than estimated during September, climbing to £9.816 billion vs. £9.557 billion (revised) from the previous month. At the time of writing the cross has already pared back all of its gains, hovering again at its prior levels (before the UK budget release) at 0.8346. Thus, the uptrend movement of roughly 15 pips on the weak UK news, was in plain English short positions squeezed following UK data.

Technical Perspectives on the EUR/GBP

The EUR/GBP might need to overcome the obstacle of 0.8379 (hourly low of 6th of November) to be closer to 0.8428 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the downtrend movement of 0.8585-0.8379). On the downwards side, a crucial support also in psychological terms resides at the area of 0.8300 (daily low of 17th January, 7th November), which if breached could bring the cross under further pressure, near the 0.8285 level (50% Fibonacci retracement of the upwards movement of 0.7756-0.8815).

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Nov 08,2013

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Euro rebounds from downgrade-induced lowd

FXstreet.com (London) - The euro dipped to a low of USD1.3389 following the S&P announcement of French ratings cut, but has followed form with a post-ratings cut bounce to USD1.3427, up 0.08 percent.

The announcement followed downwards momentum for the euro after the European Central Bank wrong footed many by announcing a 25 basis point cut of the main refinancing rate to a record low 0.5 percent.

The decision by the ECB drove the euro down (perhaps intentionally), though Mario Draghi liberally borrowed from Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s Guide to Central Bank Rate Announcements by declaring that the ECB was not targeting currency levels.

The decision by Standard and Poor’s to downgrade French debt for the second time in two years, this time from AA+ to AA is against a backdrop of weak economic activity and high unemployment.

"The downgrade reflects our view that the French government's current approach to budgetary and structural reforms to taxation, as well as to product, services, and labor markets, is unlikely to substantially raise France's medium-term growth prospects," said S&P in a statement accompanying the downgrade.

On top of weak industrial activity, unemployment in France reached a new record high of 3.3m in October, with the unemployment rate at 11 percent.

The decision by S&P angered French leaders, with French finance minister Pierre Moscovici claiming that S&P underestimates French recovery potential. He added that “France is on the way to solid, credible recovery.” Which will come as a surprise to the 26 percent of French youths unemployed or those within a manufacturing sector that has declined for 20 straight months.

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Nov 08,2013

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US Dollar Index sidelined around 80.90

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against its major competitors, is posting meagre gains on Friday, ahead of October’s Payrolls.

DXY firmer on better US data, ECB

The index is extending its weekly gains for the second consecutive time so far, boosted by decent US data throughput the week and by the ECB’s decision to take the EMU’s lending benchmark to a record low at 0.25%. Ahead in the day, the crucial Non-farm Payrolls are due, with consensus pointing to 125K, lower than September’s 148K. In light of the positive data from the US GDP during the third quarter, Analyst James Knightley at ING assessed “at the margin this may help keep faint hopes of a December start to the Fed taper alive, but with the political backdrop remaining troubling we still doubt it will happen before the end of 1Q14. Indeed, we are not confident that a budget deal will be agreed in December and are therefore worried about another government shutdown in January“.

DXY levels to watch

The index is now up 0.05% at 80.86 with the initial resistance at 80.75 (high oct.16) followed by 81.02 (high Nov.4) and then 81.50 (high Sep.16). On the downside, a breach of 79.13 (low Oct.23) would aim for 78.93 (low Feb.1) and finally 78.60 (Sep.14 2012).

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Nov 08,2013

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EUR/USD rises above 1.3400

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD gathered strength during the European session and managed to advance toward 1.3400 after dipping to near 1.3300 Friday.

EUR/USD picks up pace

The EUR/USD bottomed out at 1.3316 Friday after the US NFP came in stronger than expected but managed to hold above the post GDP low. Following a mild bounce and a phase of consolidation, the EUR/USD picked up pace and rose to above 1.3400 Monday, printing a high of 1.3404 before easing slightly.

However, in the absence of economic data and amid the US Veterans Day holiday, the EUR/USD might have a hard time trying to find inspiration. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.3400, recording a 0.3% gain on the day.

EUR/USD levels to watch

As for technical levels, if EUR/USD managed to decisively break above 1.3400, next resistances line up at 1.3436 (Nov 8 high) and 1.3448 (100-hour SMA) ahead of 1.3500 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.3345 (daily low), 1.3316 (Nov 8 low) and 1.3295 (Nov 7 low).

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Nov 11,2013

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EUR/JPY struggles with 50-EMA (132.77) as euro hobbles

FXstreet.com (Athens) – The EUR/JPY has been trading to the upper level since the kick off of the European trading session, but still can’t help itself to trend higher near 133.00 handle.

The EUR/JPY is trading amidst a tight range during the European trading hours, but in a slightly upwards trendshift. The EUR/JPY trends amidst the Friday’s high as of 132.49 and the 50-daily EMA (132.77), while earlier spiked higher to the daily high as of 132.87. The cross anemic movement might be well justified by market participants as the single currency is hobbling post the ECB, NFP era. What’s more, today is a day really absent of any schedule data or event risk due to the US partial holiday and the banking holidays in most Euro zone countries. Last but not least, ECB’s Coeure mentioned the past weekend that “The ECB is still holding out the possibility for further easing if needed.”

Technical Aspects on the EUR/JPY

In order for the cross to move higher to the 133.53 (7th November high) and to 133.72 (6th November high) respectively, it should first overcome the barrier of the 133.00 which mostly serves as a psychological level. It is also probable that the cross might move in a sideways movement amidst the area of 132.22 (11th November session low) to the 50-EMA (132.77). Downwards, the initial support can be found at 131.47 (38.2% Fib retracement), while is that is breached the cross might move towards the area as of 130.22 (50% Fib).

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Nov 11,2013

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AUD/USD nears Friday's lows

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD fell to fresh daily lows during the European session as the greenback continues to build last week's gains.

Data fails to support AUD/USD

Despite strong Chinese industrial production data and Australian home loans figures, the AUD/USD came under pressure Monday and slid to a low of 0.9355 before finding support, just a few pips above Friday's trough of 0.9351. The AUD/USD is currently trading at the 0.9360 zone, recording a 0.3% loss on the day, having fallen 0.8% on Friday, with a quiet session ahead as US celebrates the Veterans Day.

AUD/USD technical levels

In terms of technical levels, if the AUD/USD breaks below 0.9350, next supports are seen at 0.9333 (Oct 2 low) and 0.9300 (psychological level). On the other hand, resistances could be found at 0.9390 (daily high) and 0.9420 (Nov 1 low).

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Nov 11,2013

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EUR/USD clings to the 1.3400 area

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -It seems the upside of the shared currency is taking a breather on Monday, with the EUR/USD now easing some ground from levels just above 1.3400 the figure.

EUR/USD follows the risk-on sentiment

The pair have started the trading week on the right footing so far, recovering from last week’s sharp sell-off post-ECB and October’s Payrolls, amidst a downbeat tone surrounding the greenback. Ahead in the week, the advanced measure of EMU’s GDP during the third quarter is due, and according to S.Gallo and G.Anderson, Strategists at BMO, “we look for the Q3 release of GDP for the bloc to at most cap rallies in the EUR, particularly because most of the Q3 data have not pointed to a contraction for the quarter as a whole. The big surprise however would be a flat or negative reading, and we expect such a reading to weigh on Euro Area banks’ shares and the EUR together. However, the likelihood of a flat or negative reading appears somewhat low”.

EUR/USD key levels

As of writing the pair is now advancing 0.27% at 1.3396 with the next resistance at 1.3438 (high Nov.8) followed by 1.3523 (MA10d) and finally 1.3529 (high Nov.7). On the flip side, a break below 1.3345 (low Nov.11) would open the door to 1.3318 (low Nov.8) and then 1.3295 (low 7 Nov.).

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Nov 11,2013

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Crude oil lower as greenback soars across the board

FXstreet.com (Athens) – Oil prices in both sides of Atlantic ocean are grinding slowly lower on Tuesday, partly due to the greenback strengthening across the board.

Crude oil is trading south at $94.71/brl, down 0.38%, while Brent oil is also heading downwards at $106.42, down 0.07%. Yesterday, Brent crude oil prices raised more than $1 per barrel on Monday after Iran and six world powers fell short of reaching a deal on Tehran's nuclear program. Furthermore, U.S. crude settled 54 cents higher at $95.14 a barrel, after touching a high of $95.38. The contract breached the 10-day moving average of $95.26 in intraday trading for the first time in three weeks. Gold is also trading downwards today, mostly in consolidation mode, at $1281.63/ounce, down 0.13%. Market participants might attribute the decline in gold prices to their lowest levels in nearly a month to the constant signs of a steady Chinese economic growth which fuels worries about a looming monetary tightening in China. Yesterday, spot price of gold hit its lowest since Oct. 17 at $1,278.94 an ounce in early trade. Last but not least, U.S. Comex gold futures for December settled down $3.50 at $1,281.10 an ounce, with trading volume about 45 percent below its 250-day average.

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Nov 12,2013

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EUR/USD regains 1.3400 and beyond

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -After dipping to session lows around 1.3360, sudden buying interest is now lifting the EUR/USD to the area above 1.3400 the figure on Tuesday.

EUR/USD boosted by risk appetite

The greenback is losing some momentum today against the backdrop better risk-on tone, prompting buyers to return to the beleaguered euro. Market conditions in the very near term would allow for some consolidation pattern, as no major releases are expected in the euro area with the exception of the flash EMU GDP figures for the third quarter (0.2% QoQ exp.). Previous data in the bloc showed declining consumer prices in Germany and overall stagnant CPI readings from Italy, confirming the recent acceleration in the disinflationary trend amongst the bloc members.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is losing 0.15% at 1.3393 and a break below 1.3345 (low Nov.11) would open the door to 1.3318 (low Nov.8) and then 1.3295 (low 7 Nov.). On the upside, the immediate resistance aligns at 1.3414 (high Nov.12) ahead of 1.3417 (high Nov.11) and finally 1.3438 (high Nov.8).

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Nov 12,2013

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EUR/JPY soars on Nikkei; 61.8% Fibonacci beckons?

FXstreet.com (Athens) – The EUR/JPY has been amidst an uptrend rally on Tuesday, partly due to the soaring Nikkei, as well as to positive outcome of the Third China’s Plenum.

The EUR/JPY is trending slightly south the last hour, but generally speaking has been trading to the upper level since the kick off of the early Asian trading session. Nikkei sharp gains (2.23% gains overnight with registered gains of 40.34% in the year up to date), alongside with the welcome results of the Third’s China Plenum assisted the cross to move higher. ECB’s Nowonty mentioned earlier that “There is no North-South division on the ECB governing council,” as well as “Stagnation, not inflation, is the real risk now.”

Technical Aspects on the EUR/JPY

The cross has managed to establish a bullish uptrend momentum, which started well after it made a decent close above the 132.05 level (50% Fibonacci retracement of the downwards movement of 2008 highs as of 169.97 to July’s 2012 lows of 94.12). The pairs has now regained a fairly enough uptrend momentum, threatening not only to touch the October highs (also 2013 highs) as of 135.32, but also to trend higher near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the major downwards movement at 141.00 area. The cross should breach the 2013 high of 135.52 clearly in order to say that it can move higher towards the 141.00 level, while below, the first solid initial support can be well found at 132.90, followed by the 132.48 level (Top Cloud of Ichimoku).

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Nov 12,2013

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AUD/USD ready to test 0.9300?

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The Aussie dollar keeps losing ground on Tuesday, now dragging the AUD/USD to the 0.9310/00 region, levels last seen in early October.

AUD/USD correcting from October highs

The selling pressure around the pair re-emerged after being rejected from multi-month highs in the boundaries of 0.9770 during October, losing ground for four consecutive weeks so far amidst renewed concerns regarding China, the persistent easing cycle from the RBA and the recent USD strength. “The AUD-USD is also expected to remain similarly heavy with the latest US labor market numbers contrasting with the more dovish AUD undertones emanating from last Friday’s RBA Quarterly Monetary Statement. If the pair continues to remain submerged below its 55-day MA (0.9387), a drift towards 0.9268 and then 0.9200 going ahead cannot be discounted”, signalled Emmanuel Ng, Strategist at OCBC Bank.

AUD/USD key levels

The pair is now losing 0.43% at 0.9319 with the next support at 0.9298 (50% of 0.9280-0.9760) ahead of 0.9280 (low Sep.30) and then 0.9223 (low Sep.13). On the upside, a breakout of 0.9421 (low Nov.1) would open the door to 0.9430 (MA50d) and finally 0.9530 (high Sep.18)

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Nov 12,2013

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