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USD/CHF, condemned for 2-year lows altitudes until 2014?

FXstreet.com (Chicago) - USD/CHF extends retracement from 0.8966 session highs on bearish pressure that maintains the pair around 2-year lows. With worse than expected data outweighing positive results, the trading range for the rest of the day is expected to remain within the 0.8860 and 0.90 boundaries.

US data

Earlier US data published includes durable goods orders at 3.7% vs. past 0.1% and expected 2.0% along durable goods orders ex transportation below expectations set at 0.5% to settle for -0.1%. The Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index is 73.2 vs. expectations at 75 and past results at 77.5. With low impact, wholesale inventories for August print 0.5% vs. past 0.2% and estimates at 0.3%.

USD/CHF Technical Levels

Technically speaking, the pair is offered at 0.8936 and oscillates between the supports aligned at 0.8888 (October 24th lows), 0.88 (key psychological support) ahead of 0.8729 (May 15th 2011 lows) and the resistances set at 0.8964 (October 23rd highs), 0.90 (October 21st lows) followed by 0.9146 (October 21st highs). Price action reveals a pair that retraces after reaching the strong 0.8964 resistance (October 23rd highs also). After stalling for hours, the pair strengthened throughout the Asian session but was stopped, coincidentally, with the release of durable goods data. The primary and secondary trends point down and the pair flows around 2-year lows.

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Oct 25,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD treads water around 1.3800

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD is back at the flat line around 1.3800 after rejection from the 23-month high of 1.3830 was contained by 1.3774.

The EUR/USD came under mild pressure during the European session following soft German IFO readings but moves lacked momentum confining the pair to gravitate around the 1.3800 mark. The latest string of US data including US durable goods orders, consumer confidence and wholesale inventories offered no motivation to the pair.

EUR/USD technical outlook

The EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.3795/1.3800, virtually unchanged on the day and with short-term indicators offering no clear signs according to Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com. "Strong acceleration above 1.3805 is required to confirm further upward potential ahead", Bednarik says. The analyst locates immediate resistances at 1.3805, 1.3835 and 1.3860, while she sees supports at 1.3770, 1.3735 and 1.3710.

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Oct 25,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD dips to lows around 1.6150

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The sterling is now rapidly losing the grip against the greenback, with the GBP/USD falling to session lows in the area of the mid 1.61s.

GBP/USD a victim of profit taking

The pair has been quite erratic throughout the week, meandering around 1.6100 and Tuesday’s peaks near 1.6260. Today’s release of the UK GDP figures for the third quarter came in as expected and was practically ignored by the price action, as much of it was already priced in by markets. In the opinion of Trevor Greetham, Director of Asset Allocation at Fidelity Worldwide Investment “A strong recovery in UK GDP is under way with survey evidence pointing to an even stronger fourth quarter. It's housing-led but any growth is better than no growth as regards getting the budget deficit down and there's a good chance the recovery broadens as companies start to invest in new equipment”.

GBP/USD levels to watch

The pair is now losing 0.20% at 1.6166 and a violation of 1.6119 (low Oct.23) would expose 1.6115 (low Oct.22) and finally 1.6096 (MA10d). On the upside, the initial barrier lies at 1.6258 (high Oct.23) followed by 1.6260 (high Oct.1) and then 1.6300 (psychological level).

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Oct 25,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD treading water at 1.3800

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The single currency is looking to stabilize around the 1.3800 handle on Friday, with the EUR/USD closing its second consecutive week with gains.

EUR/USD keeps the ytd highs

The pair continues to navigate around year highs nonetheless, easing some ground from overnight tops near 1.3840. The German IFO series came in on the softer side, although the pair quickly shrugged off the result. Tim Riddell, Head of Global Markets Research at ANZ, noted, “The sustained rally off 1.3100 now looks set to test declining resistance and a set of measured targets in the 1.3950-1.4050 area. As noted earlier this month, weekly momentum continues to be supportive as it pushes solidly higher… Although the more positive profile is gaining force, any sign of faltering would still need to be closely monitored with a slip below 1.3570 needed to undermine the current positive tone for EUR”.

EUR/USD levels to watch

The pair is now losing 0.02% at 1.3798 and a breakdown of 1.3741 (low Oct.23) would open the door to 1.3700 (psychological level) and finally 1.3662 (low Oct.22). On the upside, the first hurdle aligns at 1.3832 (2013 high Oct.25) ahead of 1.3826 (high Oct.24) and finally 1.3859 (high Nov.11 2011).

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Oct 25,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US October Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index down to 3.6 vs 12.8 (September)

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Oct 28,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: EUR/USD short term technical look bullish – Scotiabank

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Scotiabank strategists believe that EUR/USD looks bullish in the short term, based on a technical outlook.

Key Quotes

“Near term momentum and trend indicators are bullish. Key resistance level for EUR lies at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2011-12 decline in EUR, which lies at 1.3833.”

“A meaningful break of this level would likely spur continued gains. Meanwhile, a near term pull back would be expected to find support at 1.3681 followed by 1.3550.”

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Oct 28,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US September Producer Price Index: MoM -0.1% ; 0.3% YoY

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Oct 29,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US October 20 Redbook index (MoM) falls 1.3%; (YoY) grows 3.6%

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Oct 29,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices grow more than expected in August

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - On an annual basis the US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increased 12.8% in August, up from the 12.4% growth in July, Standard & Poor's informed on Tuesday. Analysts expected less rise of 12.4%.

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Oct 29,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: Redbook Index fell 1.3% MoM

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The Redbook index contracted 1.3% on a monthly basis and expanded 3.6% over the last twelve months in the week ended on May 26, against previous prints at 1.5% and 2.9%, respectively.

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Oct 29,2013

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US ADP Employment Change down to 130K in October from 145K

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Oct 30,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD glued to 1.3760 on US CPI

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The EUR/USD is returning to the comfort zone around 1.3765/70 on Wednesday, after the inflation figures in the US economy came in mixed in September.

EUR/USD range intact

The pair keeps the intraday range so far, fading the post-ADP attempt to the 1.3780 region, after the US headline CPI banged on estimates advancing 1.2% YoY and 0.2% inter-month. The Core reading, however, advanced 1.7% over the last twelve months, missing the median at 1.8%. In light of today’s FOMC gathering, analysts at Investec commented, “The current policy stance is expected to be maintained, although markets will watch for any changes in the tone of the statement, particularly any dovish comments on the recent downturn in labour market data and disruption caused by the government shutdown, which would lend support to the current risk positive mood”.

EUR/USD key levels

The pair is now advancing 0.15% at 1.3765 with the next resistance at 1.3818 (high Oct.28) ahead of 1.3833 (2013 high Oct.25) and finally 1.3859 (high Nov.11 2011). On the flip side, a break below 1.3727 (MA10d) would expose the psychological level at 1.3700 followed by 1.3662 (low Oct.22).

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Oct 30,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: USD/JPY rebounds from the 4 month uptrend - Commerzbank

FXstreet.com (Athens) – Karen Jones Head Technical Analyst of Commerzbank, mentions that the USD/JPY continues to rebound from its 4 month support line at 97.04.

Key Quotes

“This guards the current October low at 96.55 and the six month support line at 96.00. The market has been contained in a large contracting range for the past 6 months and currently we have no real indication that the market is ready to break down through 96.00, but there is scope to test this level and the downside risk remains.”

“Rallies will find minor resistance at 98.48 ahead of 99.01/06 last weeks high.”

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Oct 30,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: CPI rose 1.2% in September

FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The Department of Labour has informed that US consumer prices rose 1.2% on a yearly basis during September, in line with expectations although lower than August’s 1.5%. On a monthly basis, prices advanced 0.2% vs. 0.1% previous. Core CPI, which strips food and energy costs, rose 1.7% over the last twelve months and 0.1% MoM, both prints missed the median at 1.8% and 0.2%, respectively.

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Oct 30,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Euro continues to slide on sharp inflation drop

FXstreet.com (London) - The euro has continued to slide, with a surprise drop in inflation fuelling expectations of a rate cut from the European Central Bank.

EUR/USD has fallen 0.80 percent following inflation numbers showing a near four-year low in October. A flash estimate from the European Union's Statistics Office showed that inflation fell to 0.7 percent year-on-year, the first time that it has dropped below 1 percent since February 2010.

The flash estimate was a sharp fall from consensus expectations of 1.1 percent.

With Eurozone unemployment rates still eye-wateringly high, the drop in inflation has raised expectations of an ECB rate cut, already at 0.5 percent.

Spanish unemployment is currently 26.6 percent, with the Eurozone at 12.2 percent.

EUR/USD is currently USD1.3617.

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Oct 31,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD extends losses on strong Chicago PMI

The EUR/USD fell to a fresh low as the greenback strengthened on a surprisingly strong US Chicago PMI.

EUR/USD nears 1.3600

The Chicago PMI jumped to 65.9 in October from 55.7 the previous month, exceeding expectations (55.9) by more than 10 points. The employment component also rose to 57.7 from 53.2. The EUR/USD took another step lower and printed a low of 1.3602, last seen Oct 17.

EUR/USD technical outlook

From a technical view, the BBH analyst team noted earlier that only a break below 1.3600 (62% retracement of the October 16-25 rise) would suggest that this is anything more than a corrective dollar bounce.

Meanwhile, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com commented that EUR/USD holds a strong bearish tone in short-term charts, suggesting a continuation to 1.3580 next strong support. Bednarik locates next supports at 1.3580 and 1.3540, while she places resistances at 1.3650, 1.3710 and 1.3750.

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Oct 31,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CHF a fade or hold, wait and see?

FXstreet.com (London) - USD/CHF is a benefactor of the long dollar trade from yesterday and month end could be a supporting factor also. The pair is much higher and has broken key levels.

USD/CHF has breached 0.9020 and 0.9050 marking a high of 0.9067 and RSI is now above 70, signifying the momentum has slowed down ahead of the weekend and a new month next week. Derek Halpenny at The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ said FOMC caution helped to lift the dollar as the FOMC chose to be cautious in its statement after its meeting yesterday with the content avoiding any signal of a downgrade to the outlook for the economy. “Indeed, one would have to conclude that the FOMC is more upbeat having removed the segment on tightening financial market conditions potentially slowing the economy and jobs market going forward. So, essentially, the FOMC is telling us that the easing in financial market conditions (lower yields) is far more important for the outlook of the economy than the 16-day government shutdown and the debt-ceiling brinkmanship. That makes a lot of sense from the perspective that the FOMC always prefers to attach economic fundamental reasons to its decision-making rather than developments in Congress”.

USD/CHF Levels

The 20 DMA is 0.9027, the 50 DMA is 0.9143 and the 200 DMA is 0.9321. RSI (14) reads 70.39. Supports are ascending from 0.8971, 0.8987, 0.9011, 0.9024 and 0.9050. Spot is currently 0.9054 while resistances are 0.9064 and 0.9098.

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Oct 31,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/JPY down 1.2% on days trading

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Having posted an early Tokyo high at 135.39, EUR/JPY has tumbled today over 1.2%, to post a low at 1.33.66, where spot is currently trading.

EUR/JPY technical strength

Looking to the FXstreet.com propriatary Indicators, the OB/OS Index and the Trend Index, we can see that the pair is looking oversold and slightly bearish respectively. Hourly RSI is at 17 and the ADX is at 43. The 200-period SMA is right now at 134.5697 and flat. The exponential average closing price for the last 20 days is 133.8873 and is trending sideways.

How volatile has the EUR/JPY been?

2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is 184 pips and expanding in the hourly chart, while the ATR(14) prints 14 pips. The average movement for this session has been of 11 pips per hour in the last 4 weeks.

What are todays key levels?

The central pivot point is located at 135.1893. Pivot supports for this pair are to be found at 134.9037 (S1), 134.4808 (S2) and 134.1952 (S3). Conversely, daily pivot resistances for this pair are to be found at 135.6122 (R1), 135.8978 (R2) and 136.3207 (R3). Special attention should be paid to the price range 134.22-134.56 where several technical levels are confluent today.

Key Events

EUR/USD extends losses on strong Chicago PMI

Session Recap: USD holds gains, EUR weighed by data

EU October Consumer Price Index (YoY) up 0.7%; Core CPI rises 0.8%

EMU: Unemployment Rate unchanged at 12.2% in September, against forecasts

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Oct 31,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD building within a channel

FXstreet.com (London) - GBP/USD is climbing despite a stronger dollar and building a wider ascending channel from the lows of 1.6005 and has reached a high of 1.6070.

UK housing data continues to surprise on the upside, rising 1.0% m/m in October (vs. expected 0.7%) according to Nationwide. Meanwhile, the pound might look forward to a weaker dollar as markets digest the implications following the FOMC yesterday. Research teams at BBH explained that despite the knee-jerk positive reaction, the FOMC decision to keep policy steady yesterday should eventually bring back into focus the major negative factor for the dollar. “For now however, the dollar has strengthened, yields went lower, and equities pared some of their gains following the decision. Perhaps the FOMC disappointed those expecting a more dovish tone to the statement”.

GBP/USD Levels

The 20 DMA is 1.6081, the 50 DMA is 1.5924 and the 200 DMA is 1.5484. RSI (14) reads 43.51. Supports are ascending from 1.5869, 1.5894, 1.5940, 1.5980 and 1.6019. Spot is currently 1.6047 while resistances are 1.6079, 1.6110, 1.6124 and 1.6150.

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Oct 31,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/JPY struggles to recapture the 133.00 handle

FXstreet.com (Athens) – The EUR/JPY is making its best effort to overcome again the 133.00 area the last couple of hours, but still lacks the uptrend momentum to do so.

The EUR/JPY is behaving entirely differently in the European trading hours in relation to its trend shift in the Asian trading session. Briefly, while in Asia mainly due to the sharp fall of the Nikkei index as well as due to the single currency weakening across the board, the cross suffered major losses. Interestingly, in the last couple of hours the cross gained some uptrend momentum trying to move higher, but it is still well capped by 133.00 area. An increasing number of analysts, traders now believe that ECB will cut the rate interest ‘sooner’ than ‘later’; precisely, UBS “expects ECB to cut its interest rates on the 7th November due to yesterday’s muted inflation”. Such a move would probably put the common currency under more pressure, thus would also had a negative impact on the cross.

Technical Perspective on the EUR/JPY

The cross missed the opportunity to extend its uptrend momentum when on Wednesday reached closely the 2013 peak (135.52), touching the 134.45 level. While, it failed to do so, the probabilities to continue on a downtrend shift are high. The crucial supports are laying at 132.47 (daily low as of 11th October), 132.00 (mainly psychological level) and finally 131.69 (daily low as of 10th October). On the upside, the cross should first of all overcome the first hurdle as of 133.70 (38.2%Fib. of the downtrend move as of 135.45-132.62), in order to focus again the 134.40-134.50 area, where the 100-hourly SMA and 200-hourly SMA are laying.

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Nov 01,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

China Non-manufacturing PMI improves to 56.3 in October from 55.4

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Nov 03,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Flash: GBP/USD lower on US data and profit taking - Investec

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec notes that GBP/USD also moved lower on Friday last week after upside surprises to US data and a general profit taking.

Key Quotes

“We saw GBP/USD race lower through the ever important physiological level 1.6000, as the first batch of October US data (from during the shutdown period) and strong manufacturing sector data showed the US economy was in better shape than many had expected.”

Nov 04,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD downwards; struggles to remain above the 1.0400 handle

FXstreet.com (Athens) – The USD/CAD is heading south the past hour, continuing the bearish tone that has picked up since the past Thursday.

The USD/CAD is under heavy pressure the last hour – without any real fundamental trigger – as the immense drop on Thursday seems to continue to weigh on. Ahead of, we will witness a crucial week for both currencies, as apart from the major US news (ISM,NFP), there is a hefty of Canadian news. Briefly, regarding Canada, on Friday we will have the release of October employment where the market in looking for a flat print as well as the October housing starts. What’s more, the Ivey PMI is due on Wednesday.

Technical Aspects on the USD/CAD

As above depicted, the solid Thursday’s drop still continues to set up a bearish tone. However, the cross might clearly break the 1.0360-1.0367 area where a confluence of major supports are laying (30-daily MA at 1.0361, 24th October low as of 1.0366) in order to say that it is in a downtrend reversal mode. Marc Chandler, Global Head Strategist of Currency Market Team, suggests that “….Yet the Canadian dollar is not very inspiring. It has been in a broad range for several months. Look for narrow CAD1.0350-CAD1.0450 range to dominate until toward the end of the week. Both countries report Oct employment data on Nov 8.”

Nov 04,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD at daily highs ahead of the NY open

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD is taking a breather Monday, recovering some ground after recent drop found support ahead of 1.5900.

GBP/USD bottomed out at 1.5902 during the Asian session but managed hold above mid-October lows and bounced, supported by upbeat UK construction PMI. GBP/USD climbed nearly 70 pips from lows and reached a high of 1.5971 before losing momentum and settling in a slim range.

GBP/USD technical levels

At time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at the 1.5965 area, recording a 0.3% gain on the day with immediate resistances lining up at 1.5971 (daily high), 1.6000 (psychological level) and 1.6017 (100-hour SMA). On the flip side, supports are seen at 1.5902/00 (daily low/psychological level) and 1.5893 (Oct 16 low).

Nov 04,2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD remains just within the 0.9500 handle

FXstreet.com (London) - >="">AUD/USD has held form in the US session with the pair above 0.9500 and up 0.74% at 0.9505, off from the lows in 0.9439 and marking a high of 0.9516.

Research teams at TD Securities noted that Retail sales rose +0.8%/mth, doubling mkt expectations and volumes jumped +0.7%/qtr, a strong start to Q3 GDP. This report will be welcomed by the RBA as a fresh source of “non-mining” growth, complementing the acceleration in building approvals (+6%/qtr in Q2 and +8%/qtr in Q3), signaling that a housing construction cycle is also underway”. Rates are widely expected to remain unchanged even while all the economic data signals a recovery and the RBA’s increased vigilance as regards rising house prices and high private household debt points towards an end of rate cuts. However, in order to help prevent the increasing appreciation pressure on the AUD, the rong>RBA may wish to keep a low profile regarding the rate outlook.

AUD/USD Levels

The 20 DMA is 0.9535, the 50 DMA is 0.9364 and the 200 DM is 0.9714. RSI (14) reads 35.12. Supports are ascending from 0.9334, 0.9389, 0.9410, 0.9430 and 0.9480. Spot is 0.9508 while resistances are coming in at 0.9530, 0.9556, 0.9585 and 0.9624.

Nov 04,2013

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