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EUR/USD steadies around 1.3000

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - Following a sharp dip, EUR/USD managed to find support and stabilized around 1.3000 during the American afternoon.

EUR/USD finds support at 1.2990

EUR/USD dropped from the 1.3100 area to a 2-day low of 1.2990 during the New York session amid strong USD buying interest into the month- and quarter-end. However, the decline slowed just ahead of this week's lows, confining the pair to a narrow range over the last hours, with the Cyprus downgrade by Fitch having no effect on the EUR/USD.

At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.3000, where it is 0.3% below its opening price, with immediate supports at 1.2984 (Jun 26 low) and 1.2955 (Jun 3 low). On the other hand, resistances line up at 1.3100 and 1.3150 (Jun 21 high).

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Jun 28, 2013

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US markets mixed as month-end flows weigh

Fxstreet.com (Edinburgh) - Shares in the US markets are closing the quarter with gains on Friday, propped up by rebalancing month-end flows and better-than-estimated US consumer sentiment. The greenback is trading in the upper end of today’s range, hovering over 83.50 after climbing as high as the boundaries of 83.60. The DowJones is losing 0.15% while the Nasdaq and the S&P500 are advancing 0.47% and 0.14%, respectively.

Markets in Euroland closed in a ‘sea of red’ after jitters regarding the probable next steps of the US monetary policy re-emerged amongst traders. The IBEX35 was the worst performer, down 1.04%, followed by the CAC40, 0.62% and the FTSE100, 0.45%. After piercing the key resistance at 1.3100, the single currency plummeted to the area of 1.2990 just to stabilize later around the current area of 1.3000/10.

After the recent sharp sell-off, the ounce troy of the precious metal is recovering some ground, advancing 1.23% at $1,227. The barrel of WTI is following suit, up 0.18% at $97.19.

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Jun 28, 2013

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EUR/JPY operating at intraday highs

FXstreet.com (New York) - The EUR/JPY technical cross is now operating at intraday highs during US trading, gradually augmenting its gains throughout the day.

EUR/JPY upside doesn’t subside

The EUR/JPY is presently trading at intraday highs at 130.27, having jumped +0.83% above its opening Monday. After breaching resistance at 129.89, the Danske Research Team identified further levels of resistance at 130.70, onto 131.30. Conversely, supports are found at 128.27, ahead of 127.60, and 127.49.

EUR/JPY further bullishness intraday

According to Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The EUR/JPY managed to breach the resistance of the minor descending channel, forming the upside continuation Flag Pattern that supports extending the upside move in the upcoming period. Therefore, we expect further bullishness over intraday and short term basis, targeting areas from 131.05 then 133.75 as far as the pair maintains stability above 128.55.”

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July 01, 2013

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EUR/USD operating slightly off its intraday highs

FXstreet.com (New York) - The EUR/USD foreign exchange rate has hung onto its robust gains during the entirety of the US session, still navigating slightly off its intraday highs at 1.3070.

EUR/USD trading above its 20 and 50-day SMA

Presently, the EUR/USD technical pair is still operating positively at 1.3062, up +0.38% in these moments. Technically speaking, the pair is trading above both its 20 and 50-day SMA.

EUR/USD a sell above 1.3055

According to the Danske Research Team, “We look to sell the EUR/USD at 1.3055, targeting 1.2934. Moreover, we recommend placing a stop at 1.3110. Resistances are found at 1.3076, onto 1.3110. On the decline, a break below 1.2985 will open up supports at 1.2956 and 1.2934.”

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July 01, 2013

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EUR/GBP jumps into positive territory

FXstreet.com (New York) - The EUR/GBP technical cross has rallied higher Tuesday, breaking into positive territory and threatening the 0.8600 level.

EUR/GBP cannot breach 0.8600 barrier

At the time of writing, the EUR/GBP has edged higher to the 0.8590 level, still below its earlier highs at 0.8597. Presently however, the cross is notching a +0.04% advance, after a rapid recovery during US trading. The Mataf.net analyst team has identified the next short-term measures of resistance at 0.8602, then 0.8621, and 0.8648. Alternatively, support lies below at 0.8556, then 0.8529, and ultimately 0.8510.

EUR/GBP still looks to break higher

According to the Analyst Axel Rudolph at Commerzbank, “The EUR/GBP nears resistance at 0.8596/97 (the May high and cloud resistance). However, very shortly the cloud will thin and the risk of a break out from the 0.8470-0.8597 range will increase. Following repeated tests and recovery off 0.8470 the favored direction is still for a break higher.”

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July 02, 2013

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USD/JPY rockets to session highs

FXstreet.com (New York) - The USD/JPY foreign exchange rate surged to session highs Tuesday during US trading, advancing steadfastly as the USD strengthens across the board.

USD/JPY trading at resistance

In these moments, the USD/JPY technical pair is botching a robust gain of +1.05%, establishing fresh highs at 100.71. According to the Danske Research Team, following a break above the 100.47 resistance, the pair will face the next measure of correction at 100.73.

USD/JPY path clear towards 105.00/106.00?

According to Head of Global Markets Research Tim Riddell at ANZ, “As the USD/JPY continues towards the secondary squeeze target of 100.00, the biggest concern is that this is not merely a sharp corrective squeeze, but could be an early resumption of JPY weakness and a push towards 105.00-106.00.”

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July 02, 2013

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USD/JPY settling at support

FXstreet.com (New York) - The USD/JPY foreign exchange rate has instigated a minor recovery Wednesday, with the markets gripped in risk appetite during US trading.

USD/JPY trading at support

In these moments, the USD/JPY technical pair is still down -0.84%, navigating the region of 99.78 during US trading. Mataf.net analysts postulate the next supports at 99.84, ahead of 99.02, and 98.52.

USD/JPY could turn lower in coming days

According to the TD Securities Team, “The JPY is the G10 outperformer and the USD/JPY could also be heading for an outside range day that would foretell a turn toward lower levels in the days ahead. Considering the large spec net short position out there at the moment, the JPY may be at risk of a short squeeze.”

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July 03, 2013

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AUD/USD eases off highs

FXstreet.com (New York) - The AUD/USD technical pair retreated off session highs at 0.9183 Thursday, easing slightly during US trading in recent moments.

AUD/USD holds onto the majority of its gains

At the time of writing, the AUD/USD is still notching steadfast gains at +0.80% above it’s opening, navigating the region of 0.9160 presently. The Mataf.net analyst team has identified the next short-term measures of resistance at 0.9181 (session highs), then 0.9263, and 0.9335. Alternatively, support lies below at 0.9027, then 0.8955, and ultimately 0.8873.

AUD/USD slide below 0.85/90 2014 range

According to the TD Securities Team, “After two months of underperformance, we remain more bearish on the AUD overall. In fact, we have changed our call on the RBA (now expecting another 25bps rate cut by year end) and have accordingly cut our AUD outlook through this year and next. We now forecast the AUD/USD to trade closer to 0.90 for the second half of this year, and slide to the 0.85/90 range over 2014.”

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July 04, 2013

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Commodities Brief – Precious metals in retreat, crude maintains 101.00

FXstreet.com (New York) - Precious metal prices retreated slightly Thursday, having been confined to a tight range and devoid of any breakouts during a rather tranquil session.

Gold neutral outlook intraday

Gold prices have traded slightly lower during US trading, albeit in a muted consolidation on accounts of the American July 4 holiday. However, the yellow metal remains within a tight range, and accordingly a neutral stance is recommended. At the time of writing, gold prices are trading at USD $1248.30 per oz. Thursday.

Silver bullish rebound likely

Silver prices retreated towards a broken flag pattern, remaining entrenched above the 19.30 support level, still allowing for a bullish rebound. At the current levels, the price of silver has now moved to USD $19.55 per oz. during US trading.

WTI crude oil bullish bias prevalent

WTI crude oil is retesting 100.70-support level, looking to long dips towards 100.50, expecting another upside attempt. However, settling back below 100.70-100.50 may invalidate the intraday bullish bias and lead to a deeper downside correction. In these moments, WTI crude oil is negotiating a price of USD $101.08/bbl Thursday.

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July 04, 2013

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USD/CHF moves above resistance to test intraday highs

FXstreet.com (New York) - The USD/CHF foreign exchange has been swinging slightly near the top end of its trading range today, clinging to widespread gains during US trading.

USD/CHF breaks past resistance

At the time of writing, the USD/CHF pair is operating at 0.9581, just shy of a session high of 0.9585, securing a gain of +1.18% during US trading. Following a move above the 0.9568 resistance, the Danske Research Team points to resistances at 0.9651. On the decline, the pair will face supports at 0.9447, ahead of 0.9438, and 0.9407.

USD/CHF positive expectations remain

“The USD/CHF is still trading around 0.9485, but failed to stabilize above Linear Regression Indicators supporting the intraday positive outlook. In general, we hold on to our positive intraday expectations today unless the pair breaks 0.9400 levels supported by the bullish harmonic pattern.” notes the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com.

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July 04, 2013

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GBP/USD back above 1.4900

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD managed to trim some of its recent losses, climbing back above 1.4900 as the immediate NFP effect fades.

GBP/USD still feeling BoE pressure

GBP/USD fell to a fresh 4-month low of 1.4856 in the wake of US employment figures and still weighed by BoE dovish statement, but found buyers and it is staging a corrective movement. At time of writing, GBP/USD is trading around 1.4910/15, where it records a 1.0% loss on Friday, having dropped over 400 pips within the last 48 hours.

GBP/USD levels to watch

As for technical levels, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com locates next resistances at 1.4950 and 1.5000, while she places supports at 1.4860, 1.4830 and 1.4790.

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July 05, 2013

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USD/CHF trading at resistance

FXstreet.com (New York) - The USD/CHF technical pair retraced higher Friday, operating in these moments at calculated resistance which seems to have prevented any sustained push.

USD/CHF price explosion above 0.9620

“Traders continued to take the USD/CHF upwards above 61.8% Fibonacci level approaching the intraday resistance at 0.9620. Technical indicators remain positive and thus, our bullish scenario remain intact. A sustained break above 0.9620 will bring upside price explosion.” notes the ICN.com Technical Analyst Team.

USD/CHF path higher marked by barriers of correction

Amidst the recent easing, the USD/CHF is still entrenched in positive territory, operating at 0.9628 presently, gaining +0.65% Friday. The Danske Research team points to resistances for the USD/CHF at 0.9624, then 0.9651, and 0.9666.

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July 05, 2013

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Flash: BoEs inaction a source of action – Investec

FXstreet.com (New York) - The Bank of England (BoE) took some Canadian influence yesterday by releasing an accompanying statement with the decision not to change policy by the MPC, notes Lee McDarby, Corporate Treasury at Investec.

By any measure, this is a big move by Dr. Carney introducing statements akin to those made by the Bank of Canada during his tenure and proves that he is by no means afraid of rocking the boat. It also adds a greater level of transparency and means that the Monetary Policy Committee has to provide a sneak preview of their cards ahead of the traditional release of the minutes. However, “although this is ultimately a good thing for the Central Bank the dovish statement sent the pound tumbling as we also saw sharp falls in gilt yields.” McDarby adds.

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July 05, 2013

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Flash: GBP Bottom of G10 – TD Securities

FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams at TD Securities said the GBP is at the bottom of the G10 performance rankings after a disappointing UK industrial production print (particularly in view of last week’s encouraging PMI numbers).

“That’s pressed GBPUSD to a marginal new low in the June/July trend, but importantly the March low has so far held (1.4835). A close below there would be a key bearish sign, targeting an extension toward the mid 1.42 area”. They also said the EURUSD is sitting on a the cusp of making a rather bearish signal with key long term support just above 1.2800. “Whether we see a rebound in these pairs in the coming days relies on the USD side of the equation, where tomorrow’s FOMC minutes and Bernanke’s speech should be a deciding factor”.

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July 09, 2013

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AUD/USD eases off highs in risk-off movement

FXstreet.com (New York) - The AUD/USD foreign exchange rate eased substantially in an instant Tuesday, triggered by a sweeping bout of risk aversion that is permeating the market.

At the time of writing, the AUD/USD is now trading at 0.9151, still recording an advance of +0.21% above its opening, though well off its highs that were in excess of the 0.9200 level (0.9203 intraday high).

AUD/USD technical bias

According to Karen Jones, an analyst at Commerzbank, “The AUD/USD faces risks in the near-term as a hold below the 0.9388/0.9404 resistance leaves the overall probability of a continued downside.”

In addition, “The AUD/USD’s move to the upside during yesterday and the Asian session today was triggered by a failure to stabilize below Linear Regression Indicator 34 and 55. However, the pair is within a descending channel, as stability below the key resistance level of the descending channel at 0.9290 keeps the possibility of extending the overall negative bias.”

The AUD/USD has stubbornly clung to the 0.9145 region (200-day SMA), as this is a critical level that will determine the pair’s near-term directional trend. Most recently, the pair weakened off the 55-day MA, as this region proved too much to handle – immediate resistance lies at 0.9145, onto 0.9190.

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July 09, 2013

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EUR/GBP testing the 0.8600 barrier

FXstreet.com (New York) - The EUR/GBP foreign exchange rate is now retesting the 0.8600 barrier Wednesday, trading in a relatively subdued consolidation during US trading thus far.

At the time of writing, the EUR/GBP is now operating at 0.8604, now securing a tepid advance of +0.03%. A further rise will eventually test resistance at 0.8651, onto 0.8701, and 0.8734. Conversely, a fall below support at 0.8568 will instigate measures at 0.8535, and 0.8485, notes the Mataf.net analyst team.

EUR/GBP technical bias

According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “Despite the breakout above the key descending resistance show on the daily chart above, price has formed a giant bearish shooting star candle yesterday, and that concerns us over the sustainability of the bullish wave in the short term. Accordingly, we will move to the sidelines for now, and wait for further confirmation over the lower time intervals.”

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July 10, 2013

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AUD/USD, more signs of bottoming

FXstreet.com (Buenos Aires) – The FED did not failed in bringing life to a comatose market: majors are strongly up against the dollar, with the AUD nearing 0.9200 after mixed headlines hitting the wires: QE will start “soon” and QE3 may end entirely this year, although further improvement in employment is needed. The news however are putting the greenback on its back foot, as the American currency continues to shed gains across the board

Signs of bottoming

As for the AUD/USD, the pair surged over 70 pips already, and approached to 0.9200, having been earlier today as high as 0.9233. According to Valeria Bednarik, FXstreet.com chief analyst, “the pair continues giving signs of a probable bottom just around 0.9000, surging over the European session to a fresh 1week high. In the daily chart, a round bottom is forming these days, with its neckline around 0.9350, late June daily highs. Steady gains above the level should point for a stronger recovery in the pair, up to 0.9650 area over the upcoming days. Only a price acceleration below 0.9000 will now deny the possibility on a recovery and see the return of the bearish trend.”

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July 10, 2013

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GBP/USD dips contained by 1.5060

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD saw a quick yet short-lived drop at the beginning of the American session in the wake of disappointing US jobless claims.

GBP/USD dips below 1.5100

GBP/USD dropped nearly 50 pips after the data, piercing below the 1.5100 mark, although the dip was contained by the 1.5075 level. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 1.5095 zone, where it records a 0.6% gain on Thursday.

GBP/USD loses bullish shine

"The hourly chart shows an increasing bearish potential, with price struggling around 20 SMA and indicators heading south below their midlines, yet only below 1.5050 bears will gain some control over the pair", says Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com. "In the 4 hours chart technical readings hold in positive territory turning flat after erasing overbought readings which limits for now the downside".

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July 11, 2013

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Commodities Brief – Precious metals holding in rangebound consolidation

FXstreet.com (New York) - Commodities managed to avert any large-scale breakouts Friday, instead operating in a rangebound consolidation.

Gold bullishness reiterated

Gold extended the bullish bias after retesting 1269.00 horizontal support, alongside the ascending support for the latest rally. Accordingly, a previous bullish scenario was activated and remains valid so long as 1260.00 is holding. At the time of writing, gold prices are trading at USD $1278.53 per oz. Friday.

Silver 19.50 level provides support

Silver spot prices broke below the neckline for the minor double top pattern, hinting that a further intraday bearish bias is probable, albeit with the 19.50 level providing a form of good support. At the current levels, the price of silver has now moved to USD $19.81 per oz. during US trading.

WTI crude correcting?

WTI crude oil started a downside correction, extending towards the 104.00 support area, holding above this area is necessary for not extending the losses. Ultimately however, an intraday bullish rebound is expected so long as 103.90 area is holding. In these moments, WTI crude oil is negotiating a price of USD $105.35/bbl Friday.

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July 12, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD tumbles lower towards support

FXstreet.com (New York) - The AUD/USD foreign exchange rate made a recovery attempt that faltered at the 0.9070 region, exacerbating losses across US trading.

As such, the AUD/USD is now settling at 0.9047, incurring robust losses of -1.52% off its opening Friday. The next supportive measures lie at 0.9040, followed by the critical 0.9000 barrier, and 0.8975, calculates the Mataf.net analyst team.

AUD/USD strategic bias

According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The AUD/SD sold-off strongly, breaking the minor ascending support and 0.9100 level, while RSI dips below 50 level, and thus momentum has turned bearish over intraday basis.”

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July 12, 2013

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Flash: Near-term risks to European rates remain balanced – Goldman Sachs

FXstreet.com (New York) - The ECB has just started to pre-commit to low interest rates for an extended period, with more explicit guidance from Governing Council member Asmussen that means rates will not rise for at least 12 months, suggests the Economics Research Team at Goldman Sachs.

This is a new, more dovish communication strategy aimed at reversing a tightening in monetary policy linked to the Fed-induced global rates sell-off. Moreover, the ECB remains a strict inflation-targeting Central Bank, and its own growth and inflation forecasts make it highly unlikely that the ECB will hike any time soon. Indeed, the ECB has been discussing a possible rate cut for some time, as President Draghi has indicated at recent press conferences. On the other hand the data over the last few months points to a modest rebound in inflation and economic stabilization in the periphery – both make a rate cut at the margin less likely.

“In line with this assessment, expectations for ECB policy have therefore not moved much and 2-year swap rates in the Euro area remain close to the average that has prevailed year to date. That said, the recent decline in EUR/USD and subsequent rebound coincided with local changes in rate differentials. Overall, the near-term risks to European rates seem balanced relative to market expectations.” the team adds.

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July 12, 2013

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USD/JPY supported 99.40

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - USD/JPY has calved a path lower post an initial 20-pip spike after the release of US CPI.

USD/JPY jumped from 99.30 territories to reach a high in the London session in a relatively quiet day and start to the week ahead of Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony to US Congress tomorrow. For Japan, this week we will see BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes tomorrow.

USD/JPY with a downside bias

Karen Jones, Chief analyst at Commerzbank noted that in USD/JPY, despite yesterdays rally, the market remains below its 101.60 78.6% retracement and attention remains on the base of the cloud circa 98.15. “It starts this week sandwiched between these two levels. We suspect that overall risk is on the downside. Should the base of the cloud be eroded, it will leave the market under pressure and likely to slide back to 96.75/95.40 en route to the 93.75 recent low”.

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July 16, 2013

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US equities open positively after upbeat CPI

FXstreet.com (New York) - The US stock market edged higher Tuesday at the opening, as investors digest the latest CPI figures in the United States.

Earlier today in the United States, the Consumer Price Index (YoY) grew by +1.8% in June, exceeding estimates of +1.5%. In addition, the Consumer Price Index (MoM) climbed +0.5% in June, beating expectations of only +0.3%. Finally, the Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) was reported at +1.6% in June, in line with projections.

Beginning with the indices and composites, the NASDAQ rose +0.06% as it settles in region of 3610.41, up +2.16 points in these moments. In addition, the S&P 500 is trading in positive territory, operating at 1683.53, ascending +0.70 points or +0.04% at the time of writing. Finally, the Dow Jones has moved higher at the opening, trading in the zone of 15487.87, presently +0.02% after a movement of +3.61 points.

Sectors are all mixed at the opening, however the Basic Materials and Energy sectors have distinguished themselves as the winners thus far, rising +0.63% and +0.29% respectively. Moreover, the price of gold has settled at $1291.24 per oz., while silver is now negotiating a spot price of $19.94 per oz. Tuesday.

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July 16, 2013

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Flash: US Labour market improving - BBH

FXstreet.com (London) - Marc Chandler Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH said the US labour market has gradually improved.

Leaving aside the unemployment rate, which is really more about the participation rate, the US economy has generated roughly 4.5 mln jobs over the past two years. The point is not about the strength in absolute terms, but relative to Europe. The housing market in the US has also improved, with Case-Shiller house price index rising at its strongest pace since mid-2006. These two consideration help underpin demand for durable goods.

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July 16, 2013

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GBP/USD dips to 1.5150 on Bernanke

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) -The GBP/USD is losing around a big-figure since today’s peaks near 1.5270 as Fed’s Bernanke is holding a Q&A session after his testimony.

GBP/USD testing 1.5150

The greenback is finding support on Bernanke’s words, bouncing off lows and weighting on the pair. Recall that earlier on during the European morning the BoE left intact its monetary policy and the MPC unanimously voted to keep the asset purchase programme at £375 billion, boosting the pound to fresh weekly highs in the boundaries of 1.5270. In the opinion of G.Moore and S.Osborne, FX Strategists at TD Securities, “The bigger picture remains however, that the MPC is still likely to remain very accommodative for quite a while and could even pursue alternate stimulus measures going forward. Overall that suggests the GBP should be weighed lower in the months ahead, particularly against the USD”.

GBP/USD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is up 0.15% at 1.5182 facing the next hurdle at 1.5270 (high Jul.17) ahead of 1.5284 (50% of 1.4832-1.5753) and then 1.5305 (high Jul.3). On the downside, a break below 1.5080 (low Jul.17) would target 1.5059 (MA10d) en route to 1.5045 (low Jul.16).

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July 17, 2013

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