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EUR/JPY testing higher

FXstreet.com (London) - The EUR/JPY has rocketed from 130.20 to test 132.00 throughout the European day.

The EUR/USD has drifted higher nicely while the Yen has also gained some 180 pips on the day, moving well away from the 100.00 mark which was anticipated from overnight moves lower. EUR/JPY is still some way off from the top side of the previous ascending trend line and downside risk applies with closes below 131.60 and 132.50 resistance lines set up last week as a double top before the break of the supporting line.

The majority of the market is not expecting the ECB to follow through with the mentions of negative interest rates, for now. Meanwhile, Japanese officials speaking of late have had little calming effect on JGB or equity markets.

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May 30, 2013

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Flash: EUR/USD holds bearish bias – BTMU

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ analysts expect EUR/USD to hold a bearish bias ahead and range between 1.2850 and 1.3200.

They begin by noting that they expect the euro to weaken modestly in the week ahead with EUR/USD increasingly struggling to trade above the 1.30-level. They see that the euro is being undermined against the US dollar by rising real yields in the US supported by heightened investor expectations that the Fed may taper QE in the coming months. Further, the release of the non-farm payrolls report for May will prove crucial for near-term dollar direction.

They add that unless the report reveals that employment growth has weakened materially, the US dollar should continue to trade on a firmer footing. US dollar direction will also be impacted by the release of the latest PCE deflator report for May. Overall, they feel that a weaker US dollar could result if disinflationary pressures exceed expectations pushing back Fed QE tapering expectations.

They finish by commenting that, "The main event for euro direction will be the upcoming ECB meeting. We expect the ECB to leave monetary policy unchanged although it remains a close call. With President Draghi likely to maintain an easing bias, an unchanged policy stance will likely still weigh modestly upon the euro. Any signal that the ECB is moving closer to implementing negative deposit rates would weigh more heavily."

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May 31, 2013

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EUR/USD keeps 1.3000 after US PCE

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The euro remained apathetic after the US inflation figures, in terms of the PCE, came in below market forecasts during April.

In fact, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures posted an annualized increment of 1.1%, a tad higher than the median, while the rest of the readings came in below forecasts. The headline advanced 0.7% on a yearly basis and contracted 0.3% inter-month. Further data showed that Personal Income came in flat while Personal Spending contracted 0.3% during the same period.

The pair is now losing 0.37% at 1.3001 and a violation of 1.2965 (MA21d) would target 1.2934 (low May 30) en route to 1.2931 (MA10d). On the other hand, resistance levels line up at 1.3062 (high May 30) ahead of 1.3072 (61.8% of 1.3243-1.2796) and then 1.3114 (MA100d).

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May 31, 2013

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Flash: USD/CHF could extend correction with push below 0.9527 – UBS

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's majors and outline the technical positions.

Beginning with the USD/JPY, the potential is for extension of the correction phase. The next important support is at 99.58 ahead of 97.02. Resistance is at 101.80 ahead of 103.74, suggesting a neutral outlook.

As for the GBP/USD, “There is a major resistance at 1.5308. As long as this holds, the pair is vulnerable as bearish conditions prevail and a break below 1.5111 would expose 1.5009, suggesting a bearish near-term outlook.” Finally, regarding the USD/CHF, with bull trend in place, the recent downside move should be limited in time and extent, which has tested support at 0.9527. A closing break below would prolong the correction to 0.9431. Resistance is at 0.9651 ahead of 0.9791.

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Jun 3, 2013

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US sells $30 Bn of 3-month bills at 0.045%

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Jun 3, 2013

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AUD/USD soars, reaches pass 0.9760

FXstreet.com (Buenos Aires) – Aussie extended its advance to a fresh 2-week high above 0.9760, having been positive since early weekly opening, favored by positive Chinese data released past Saturday. Having been grinding higher for most of the European session, US disappointing data and the promise of a lively future for QE, gave the pair a reason to recover ground, after being steadily bearish for over the past 3 weeks.

While short term technical readings suggest now an upward continuation, the pair has not yet filled the weekly opening gap around 0.9570. Immediate resistance comes at 0.9777, May 23rd daily high, followed by 0.9820 price zone, 20 DMA. Supports are at 0.9710, May 17th daily low, followed by strong static 0.9660 level.

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Jun 3, 2013

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EUR/CHF muted at 1.2400

FXstreet.com (London) - Surprisingly, the EUR/CHF has remained onto the 1.2400 handle since the release of EMU Producer Price Index (YoY) that arrived in at -0.2% in April, vs. expectations of +0.3%.

Analysts teams at ANZ said that the “…bias since late-2012 has been for an eventual break through 1.2650 (38.2% of the fall from 2007’s 1.6830 high) for a range flip towards the next retracement and so a target zone of 1.3260-1.3450. However, failure to breach 1.2650 and sliding back into the 1.2350-1.2450 area is unwinding upside potential. A sharp move above 1.2550 is needed to avoid a return to dull range trading”.

Support is seen at 1.2380 ahead of 1.2350 with the ECB on Thursday as the main event in focus for the pair this week. USD/CHF continues to be offered weighing on the cross. In the opinion of Commerzbank, the USD/CHF’s correction lower has extended lower towards the 200 day ma at 0.9358, the intraday charts have turned more negative and at this stage they are unable to rule out further weakness to the 0.9324 2013 uptrend, which they look to ideally hold.

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Jun 4, 2013

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Flash: UK Construction PMI offered upside surprise – Brown Brothers Harriam

FXstreet.com (London) - Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that the UK construction PMI offered an upside surprise, following yesterday's better than expected manufacturing PMI.

“We are struck by the rebound that has been recorded since the 46.8 reading in February (to 50.8 in May). On top of that the BRC sales figures (1.8% in May vs. consensus of 1.3%) suggest that perhaps the CBI distributive trades survey was too pessimistic. Sterling is trading with a heavier bias, straddling the $1.53 level through the London morning”.

He went onto say that the 5-day moving average is crossing above the 20-day average for the first time since mid-May, a constructive technical development and provided the $.5240 area holds, sterling can retest the $1.5400 area.

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Jun 4, 2013

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NZD/USD dips further, around 0.7945/50

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The kiwi dollar is giving back its weekly gains so far, now hovering over the mid 079s after hitting highs above 0.8060 overnight.

According to I.Spivak, Currency Strategist at DailyFX, “Prices put in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick patter above major support at a rising trend line set from June 2009, hinting a move higher is ahead. Initial resistance is at 0.8112, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break above that targets the 38.2% level at 0.8219. Trend line support is now at 0.7893”.

The NZD/USD is now retreating 0.90% at 0.7946 facing the immediate support at 0.7937 (low May 31) ahead of 0.7922 (61.8% of 0.7456-0.8670) and finally 0.7915 (low Sep.5 2012). On the flip side, a surpass of 0.8061 (high Jun.5) would open the door to 0.8072 (MA10d) en route to 0.8111 (23.6% of 0.8676-0.7937).

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Jun 5, 2013

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USD/CHF hits 1-month low

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The US dollar fell to a fresh 1-month low versus the Swiss franc following mixed economic data for the US.

USD/CHF initially found support at the 0.9420 area but recently broke below that level and stretched to its lowest since May 9 at 0.9410. However, the pair has managed to bounce from lows and it is currently trading around 0.9435, still down 0.3% on the day.

In terms of technical levels, immediate supports could be faced at 0.9410 (daily low) and 0.9390 (100-day SMA), while resistances are now seen at 0.9490/95 (daily highs) and 0.9520 (100-hour SMA).

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Jun 5, 2013

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EUR/GBP falls back below 0.8500

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - After bouncing at 0.8495, the EUR/GBP's recovery was capped at 0.8525 with the pair trading back to previous lows. Currently the pair is trading at 0.8500.

The EUR/GBP is 0.48% negative on the day right now. Short term perspective is strongly bearish according to the FXstreet.com trend index in the 15-minute chart. Indicators such as MACD, CCI and Momentum are pointing to the south while the Stochastic is bullish.

As for technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 0.8525 (intraday level) and 0.8545 (daily high), while supports could be found at 0.8495 (daily low) and 0.8475 (May 14 low).

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Jun 5, 2013

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USD/CAD recovers the level of 1.0324/30

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The USD/CAD exchange rate recovered the mark of 1.0324/30 after the release of US data Thursday.

In the United States, Initial Jobless Claims (June 1) came in at 346K, against expectations of 345K. In addition, Continuing Jobless Claims (May 25) yielded a figure of 2.952M, relative to estimates calling for 2.975M.

After the recent recovery, the USD/CAD is still trading negatively at -0.15%. According to Gareth Berry, a Research Analyst at UBS, “Resistance for the USD/CAD pair is at 1.0388, a break above which would open the way to 1.0451 and then 1.0524 – support is at 1.0328 ahead of 1.0262, indicating a bullish intraday bias.”

“Based on the charts, the USD/CAD’s slide below short-term support just under 1.0300 at the start of the week has yielded naught, so far. Instead, the quick snap higher again through mid-week makes the downside move look like a false break and the bigger picture look still relatively constructive. We think 1.0295/1.03 is firm short-term support now. Short-term price signals suggest the intraday low may be in already. We look for gains to 1.0375/85.” recommends the TD Securities Team.

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Jun 6, 2013

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Flash: Poor Trade data keeps pressure on AUD - Societe Generale

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale notes that Thursday started with poor trade data in Australia that have simply continued the AUD's downward trend.

The RBA policy statement was a green light for AUD bears and they are using it to keep right on going. He writes, “The move has only just begun and remains the best way of positioning for softer Chinese growth, continued re-balancing in the Chinese economy and for the risk of capital flows and yuan depreciation if the Fed does start tapering and drives US yields much higher by year end (see this morning's economics piece).”

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Jun 6, 2013

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Commodities Brief: NFP’s see dollar strength and metals offered

FXstreet.com (London) - The commodities, specifically precious metals, are offered and reacting to the dollar

Brent Crude

The Brent has been bid since the decline of the dollar and indeed was stabilised ahead of what printed as a relatively benign NFP’s differential between expectations and actual readings. The commodity traded above $104.00 this morning GMT. With the release of the numbers, 175k against expectations of 170k, the price in Brent has maintained a support line of above $104 and is likely to be reactive and attractive to investors and speculators driving prices higher in the back drop of a weaker dollar. For the time being the dollar has remained within relatively tight ranges since the numbers.

Metals offered

The precious metals have shed some of its gains correlated to the price actin in the currency markets and the dollar. The dollar has grasped onto territory as the ef="">NFP’s offered a better print than which was expect by traders today. The numbers were slightly better, but good enough to see the dollar strengthen across the board, albeit only marginally in comparison to yesterdays slide. Gold is trading much lower though to the $1,387, near enough pairing the gains made yesterday after the dollar onslaught. Silver is trading 22.45 and below the support line for the year at lowest levels since 2010.

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Jun 7, 2013

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Flash: ECB less dovish – TD Securities

FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams at TD Securities explain that for the EUR, Draghi’s comments at yesterday’s ECB meeting may have been mildly less dovish than the market was anticipating, but that clearly didn't justify the huge move higher in EURUSD.

They suggested that within Europe it is worth noting the particularly strong German industrial production numbers this morning which set up Germany for quite a robust GDP figure in the second quarter and this continues to contrast activity in most of the Eurozone.

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Jun 7, 2013

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USD/MXN rebounds from 12.7000

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Mexican peso is sharply appreciating against its northern neighbour on Friday, dragging the USD/MXN to session lows around 12.7000 after the Banxico left the refi rate unchanged.

Stronger MXN on Banxico, CPI

The Mexican central bank kept the lending benchmark intact at 4.0%, broadly in line with market expectations and somehow neutralizing the effects of better Payrolls in the US economy during May. Further data in the Aztec economy showed that consumer prices expanded at an annual rate of 4.65%, marginally higher than the 4.63% previous. As of writing, the pair is down 0.45% at 12.7463.

Short-term key levels

A breach of 12.6867 (MA200d) would bring 12.6101 (low May 30) and finally 12.4622 (MA21w). On the flip side, resistance levels align at 12.9016 (high Feb.260 followed by 12.9370 (high Jun.6) and then 12.9454 (high May 31).

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Jun 7, 2013

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Flash: Expect a larger Japanese trade deficit in May - Nomura

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Nomura economists are estimating a larger trade deficit in May, with the first rise in real exports for two months.

They write, “We have estimated May imports and exports, which are scheduled for release on 19 June, using the trade statistics for 1–20 May published by the MOF on 7 June and the corporate goods price index published by the BOJ on 12 June. We estimate a nominal trade deficit of ¥1,232.7bn.” On a seasonally adjusted basis, they estimate a deficit of ¥963.5bn, larger than the deficit of ¥764.4bn in April. Further, they estimate a 1.1% m-m increase in real exports, the first rise for two months.

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Jun 12, 2013

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Flash: Toshin momentum is slowing for now - Nomura

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Nomura Strategist Yujiro Goto notes that Japanese retail investors had purchased foreign securities via toshins for three months in a row until May, but momentum is likely to be slowing slightly now.

He expects toshin momentum to remain strong this year thanks to better economic conditions in Japan, but recent market volatility is likely to slow the momentum for now. He writes, “To gauge the momentum going forward, the many new toshin launches investing in Japanese equities in foreign currencies and foreign equities later this month are worth monitoring.”

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Jun 12, 2013

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Flash: EUR/USD rise may falter in the 1.3300 region – ANZ

FXstreet.com (New York) - Much has been made of a Head and Shoulders pattern occurring in the EUR/USD, however this has mostly been conjecture.

According to Tim Riddell, Head of Global Markets Research at ANZ, “The current push above 1.3250 may raise concern over an extension towards 1.3475-1.3500, however the overall pattern remains the same. A broad range is being defined with the bias being that the squeeze may falter in the 1.3300’s.” An extension should merely define a 1.25-1.35 range. Moreover, dips below 1.3115 would signal that the range has been defined.

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Jun 12, 2013

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Flash: AU vols lower - Nomura

FXstreet.com (London) - Saeed Amen strategist at Nomura notes that Gold has been relatively stable in recent weeks, compared with other markets, which have seen large unwinds triggered by increased expectations of Fed tapering following Chairman Bernanke‟s testimony in May.

Indeed, he say’s, gold implied vols are well off their April highs, contrasting with the rise in implied elsewhere. One explanation he mentions is that gold’s large April fall might have already gone someway to pricing in the start of the end of QE price of gold. Indeed, spec positioning is extremely low in gold, which has made it less vulnerable to the position squaring that has afflicted many markets. He points out that Gold has been in somewhat of a flux, with a continuation of gold ETF liquidation (albeit at a slower rate), while Asian demand has supported the downside. While his teams prefer upside, especially because of the lack of spec positioning, they think that to have a decent move higher, gold ETF liquidation will need to turn

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Jun 13, 2013

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Flash: AU vols lower - Nomura

FXstreet.com (London) - Saeed Amen strategist at Nomura notes that Gold has been relatively stable in recent weeks, compared with other markets, which have seen large unwinds triggered by increased expectations of Fed tapering following Chairman Bernanke‟s testimony in May.

Indeed, he say’s, gold implied vols are well off their April highs, contrasting with the rise in implied elsewhere. One explanation he mentions is that gold’s large April fall might have already gone someway to pricing in the start of the end of QE price of gold. Indeed, spec positioning is extremely low in gold, which has made it less vulnerable to the position squaring that has afflicted many markets. He points out that Gold has been in somewhat of a flux, with a continuation of gold ETF liquidation (albeit at a slower rate), while Asian demand has supported the downside. While his teams prefer upside, especially because of the lack of spec positioning, they think that to have a decent move higher, gold ETF liquidation will need to turn

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Jun 13, 2013

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AUD/USD holds above 0.9600 level

FXstreet.com (New York) - The AUD/USD exchange rate is presently operating within close proximity to its intraday highs Thursday (0.9624) during US trading.

AUD/USD stabilizes above 0.9600 level

Although the pair has eased slightly to 0.9614 in these moments, the AUD/USD still is securing a robust gain of +1.36% today. Following an earlier break above resistance at 0.9555, the Mataf.net analyst team postulates the next short-term resistances at 0.9634 onto 0.9703. Alternatively, supports will be faced should the pair drop to the depths of 0.9407, ahead of 0.9338, and 0.9259.

AUD/USD self-sustaining upside?

According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The AUD/USD pair surged and resided above 0.9535 – zones we believe are positive and capable of pushing the pair higher throughout Thursday's trading session.”

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Jun 13, 2013

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US Sells 13 billion of 30-Year Bonds at 3.355%

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Jun 13, 2013

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EUR/USD pares losses after weak US data

FXstreet.com (New York) - The EUR/USD finally received the impetus it needed to stage some prolonged manner of recovery Friday, edging higher after the release of US data.

In the United States, the Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (June) came in at 82.7, missing expectations of 84.5.

EUR/USD bounces off support

Briefing the technicals, the pair is operating off of its opening at -0.32% in at the time of writing at the 1.3332 handle. According to the Mataf.net analyst team, the EUR/USD will look towards supports at 1.3299 followed by 1.3233, and finally 1.3187. Alternatively, a movement to the upside and paring of losses will usher in resistances at 1.3411, then 1.3457, and eventually 1.3523.

EUR/USD affected by overbought indicators

“The EUR/USD dropped below 1.3345, which was affected by overbought pressure on momentum indicators. Moreover, linear regression indicators are still positive and the pair is stable above 1.3270. Therefore, we hold on to our positive expectations for today.” notes the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com.

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Jun 14, 2013

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Flash: Monetary policy needs revamping in Nordic countries? – Goldman Sachs

FXstreet.com (New York) - “Much has been made of the below-target inflation in Scandinavia, which is the result of external factors (exchange rate and foreign prices) that are largely exogenous to the Riksbank and Norges Bank.” notes the Economics Research Team at Goldman Sachs.

Domestic inflation is currently around target and a sizeable easing would be required to raise domestic inflation sufficiently to reach the aggregate inflation target in the near term. Such easing would come with risks: creating a sizeable domestic boom risks spurring excessive credit growth and would likely result in more volatile monetary policy in the medium term.

According to the team, “This suggests that small (very) open economy inflation targeters, such as the Riksbank and Norges Bank, should adopt a longer-than-usual time horizon for monetary policy.” The Riksbank and Norges Bank appear effectively, although not officially, to have done this. This underlies our view that both central banks will hike in 2014, despite a below-target inflation rate, as imported inflation (exogenously) reverses its recent declining trend, and in order to limit the upward trend in domestic inflation and credit growth.

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Jun 14, 2013

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