Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 19.01.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1901EURUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

EURUSD is retesting the upper limits of the downward trending channel this morning.

 

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0895 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1.0837, which is the 2nd support level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0798, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today together with the 3rd pivot support level, could be observed further.

 

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0922, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0969, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection.

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1901GBPUSDH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

GBPUSD is recovering after the UK inflation data indicated some improvement this morning.

 

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4267 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.4353, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4384, which is the 3rd resistance level, could take place next.

 

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4267, which is today’s Pivot Point of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4211, being the 1st pivot support of today.

 

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

 

http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1901USDJPYH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDJPY is trading higher this morning, after the pair reached a one-year low yesterday.

 

USDJPY needs to hold above 117.12 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

 

The initial upside target is 118.24, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 118.39 being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance, could likely take place next.

 

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 116.95, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 115.5748, being the USDJPY 1st intermediate pivot support level, could occur next.

 

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

 

http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1901USDCHFH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCHF continue to keep the upward momentum this morning.

 

USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0041 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.0113, being the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0150, which is Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today.

 

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0041, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. The extension further to 1.0010 could follow next.

 

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

 

http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1901USDCADH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCAD is retracing this morning after the pair reached a new thirteen-year high yesterday.

 

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.4547 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside aim is 1.4372, being the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of today.

 

If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4548, which is the pivot point of the pair for today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.4611, being the 1st pivot resistance of the pair.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

 

http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1901AUDUSDH4.png

 

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

AUDUSD has breached the top of the downward trend channel this morning.

 

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.6936 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.6971, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of the pair for today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7014 could likely follow next.

 

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.6874, being the pairs Pivot Point of today. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.6828, being the pair’s Average True Range downside projection, could take place next.

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

 

http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1901GOLDH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Gold seems to be unable to keep the upward momentum at the moment.

 

Gold needs to hold below 1089.77 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1084.10, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1104.00, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.

 

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1082.11, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level.

 

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1901OILUSDH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Oil price continues on the way up, after it bounced off the top of the downtrend channel yesterday.

 

The commodity needs to hold above 30.18 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 31.52, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 31.87, which is 3rd pivot resistance level of the commodity, could follow next.

 

If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 29.81, being the commodity’s 2nd intermediate pivot support of today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 20.01.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

There was an understanding that the Bank of England would either raise interest rates at the same time or the very least would follow in step with Washington policymakers at the Federal Reserve.

 

However in a speech given yesterday, the Bank of England Governor painted a depressing picture of the United Kingdom and global economy.

 

The US and the UK economies are very similar however Mark Carney has now thrown into question from where the growth and inflation that the FOMC are seeing will come from.

 

Mark Carney has in effect implied that Janet Yellen and her colleagues have made a policy error in increasing interest rates in December.

 

Furthermore, far from moving in step with the dot plot that proposes four US interest rates in 2016, the Bank of England has now totally discounted the possibility of a UK interest rate rise during the course of this year.

 

The FOMC in December moved to nominalize the interest rate environment just in case inflation and wage growth got out of hand.

 

Yesterday’s speech by the Bank of England Governor has now created a two-way bet on the outlook of the global economy.

 

Was Yellen prudent in her policy to hike interest rates or is Carney’s cautious wait and see approach more in tune with the realities of this much interconnected global economy.

 

The fallout from yesterday’s speech sent the British Pound tumbling to lows not seen since 2009 and there are no signs yet that the bottom has been reached. On a trade-weighted basis, the depreciation in the Pound over past 6 months stands at 7%.

 

2016 thus far has been a year of market volatility. The New Year always gives us the opportunity to reassess our lives, our plans and our situations. Back on January 4, the market had priced in a UK rate increase for November 2016. However, yesterday’s not so pleasant reassessment of the world economy has seen the markets push back the first rate increase until the middle of 2017.

 

In the space of just two weeks, what was thought to be the accepted course of interest rate policy over the next twelve months has been completely changed.

 

However, will the economic realities in 2017 allow the Bank of England to move ahead and increase rates? What if we do not see an improvement in CPI and wage data.

 

Mr Carney may be hoping that the weak pound will boost inflation and stimulate exports but so far, this has not been the case. On the contrary, inflation still is under considerable downward pressure and fears of deflation persist.

 

The problem is that the fight to get to the bottom in a currency war just reallocates deflationary pressure to the country that has the strongest currency.

 

If devaluation is the only tool left available to policy makers and with question marks over quantitative easing which has plainly has not worked as expected, what is next for world’s central bankers?

 

What is required is sustainable global growth and this will mean that some tough choices have to be made.

 

Is it a case that we reassess what is meant to be normal growth and lower our expectations or do the world leaders take the bold move to address the obvious problems of a global economy that suffer from overcapacity and an addiction to debt?

 

Harking back to the spring and summer months of last year, one politician was thrown into the global spotlight. He is, of course, Yanis Varoufakis the former Greek Finance Minister.

 

Maybe just maybe, this rebellious yet likeable chap got it right. We have had QE and we are now entering a currency war. However in this interconnected world, we need courageous and interconnected reform and policies that cure the ills and not just massage the symptoms.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURUSDH120012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.1009

 

Target 2: 1.0857

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

 

Daily control level: 1.0850

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPUSDH120012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.4255

 

Target 2: 1.4056

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122

 

Daily control level: 1.4350

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDJPYH120012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 118.24

 

Target 2: 116.60

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.11

 

Daily control level: 118.15

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCHFH120012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.0098

 

Target 2: 0.9930

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

 

Daily control level: 0.9955

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCADH120012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.4686

 

Target 2: 1.4517

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0136

 

Daily control level: 1.4420

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDUSDH120012016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.6947

 

Target 2: 0.6820

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0133

 

Daily control level: 0.6835

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GOLDH120012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1102.00

 

Target 2: 1079.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.20

 

Daily control level: 1096.00

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/CLG6H120012016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 29.20

 

Target 2: 26.74

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.83

 

Daily control level: 30.30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 21.01.2016

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2101EURUSDH4.png

The intraday technical outlook

 

EURUSD is has broken the bottom of the recently formed uptrend channel this morning.

 

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0913 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1.0852, which is the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0795, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could be observed further.

 

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0951, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0975, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2001GBPUSDH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

GBPUSD has once again tried to retest the six-year low the pair reached yesterday.

 

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4177 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1.4078, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4042, which is the 3rd pivot support level, could take place next.

 

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4230, which is today’s 1st pivot resistance of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4271, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2001USDJPYH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDJPY continues to decline, reaching a new year low yesterday.

 

USDJPY needs to hold below 116.85 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

 

The initial downside target is 116.30, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 116.00 being the pair’s psychological support level, could likely take place next.

 

If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 117.77, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 118.56, being the USDJPY 2nd pivot resistance level, could occur next.

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2101USDCHFH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCHF is ranging in indecision before deciding on the move further.

 

USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0028 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.0095, being the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0132, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today.

 

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0028, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. The extension further to 0.9998 could follow next.

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2101USDCADH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCAD is retracing this morning after the pair reached a new thirteen-year high yesterday.

 

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.4555 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside aim is 1.4370, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target. After the level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4338 support line.

 

If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4583, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target for today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.4771, being the 2nd pivot resistance of the pair.

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2101AUDUSDH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

AUDUSD continues to range after the pair breached the top of the downward trend channel this Tuesday.

 

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.6885 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.6982, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of the pair for today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7000 could likely follow next.

 

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.6849, being the pairs the Daily Average True Range downside projection level. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.6788, could take place next.

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2101GOLDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Gold seems to be unable to keep the upward momentum at the moment.

 

Gold needs to hold above 1099.07 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1113.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1121.00, which is the 2nd pivot support resistance.

 

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1087.00, which is the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2101OILUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Oil price slid further down yesterday.

 

The commodity needs to hold below 28.67 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 27.49, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 26.91, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could follow next.

 

If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 29.64, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance of today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 22.01.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2201EURUSDH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

EURUSD returned to trade within the borders of the downward trending channel formed earlier on 4 hours timescale.

 

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0857 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1.0793, which is the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0761, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could be observed further.

 

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0896, being the pair’s 1st intermediate pivot resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0940, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection.

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2201GBPUSDH1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

GBPUSD continues to recover the losses the pair made at the beginning of this week.

 

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4183 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.4332, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4404, which is the 3rd intermediate pivot resistance level, could take place next.

 

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4182, which is today’s pivot point of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4101, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2201USDJPYH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDJPY has breached the top of the downtrend trending channel this morning.

 

USDJPY needs to hold above 117.32 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

 

The initial upside target is 118.75, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 119.51 being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level, could likely take place next.

 

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 117.32, which is the pivot point of today. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 116.83, being the USDJPY 1st pivot support level, could occur next.

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2201USDCHFH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCHF is trading higher this morning, with the pair continuing to observe the uptrend channel limits.

 

USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0076 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.0142, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0169, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today.

 

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0076, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. The extension further to 1.0007 could follow next.

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2201USDCADH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCAD is retracing this morning after the pair reached a new thirteen-year high on Wednesday.

 

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.4344 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside aim is 1.4137, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target. After the level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4031 support line.

 

If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4398, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target for today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.4461, being the 1st pivot resistance level of the pair.

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2201AUDUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

AUDUSD continues trade higher this morning.

 

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.6963 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7051, being the 1st pivot resistance level of the pair for today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.8000 could likely follow next.

 

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.6920, being the pairs the Daily Average True Range downside projection level. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.6900, could take place next.

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2201GOLDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Gold is slightly retracing from the highs the commodity made last Wednesday.

 

Gold needs to breach above 1099.22 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1106.00, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1114.00, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.

 

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1085.00, which is the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2201OILUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Oil price is recovering sharply since last afternoon.

 

The commodity needs to hold above 29.51 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial downside target is 31.86, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 32.57, could follow next.

 

If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 29.51, being the commodity’s pivot point of today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.01.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

This morning at 9:00 London time Ifo Institute for Economic Research will release the German Ifo Business Climate numbers.

 

This report is released on a monthly basis and some three weeks into the current month.

 

The Ifo is a survey of current and future business sentiment with respondents also requested to rate their expectation six months forward from the survey date.

 

Due to the size and breadth of this report, the result of this survey is highly respected. This is because some 7000 business across Germany which are active in diverse sectors from manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail are requested to respond.

 

The German Ifo Business Climate Survey is a leading indicator of the economic health of the country. As businesses can quickly recognize and adapt to the constantly changing market environment, this survey has proven to be a timely leading indicator to possible future economic activity.

 

Germany is the 4th largest economy in the world and by far the biggest and the most dominant within the European Union. This makes what happens in Germany very important. The release of the German Ifo can affect economic expectations and values of financial instruments not only in Germany but throughout the European Union.

 

The Ifo furthermore can have a dramatic effect on the Euro and the Euro crosses. Market volatility around the time of the Ifo release can potentially increase.

 

The forecasts for this month release are projecting the slight increase to 108.5, as compared to the previous number of 108.7.

 

A result that is higher than expected could potentially have a positive effect on the Euro currency whereas an actual release that is lower than expected could see the single currency come under pressure.

 

The reason for this is an optimistic business outlook can precede an increase in business activity and economic growth whereas a pessimistic bufsiness outlook could indicate a future contraction in business activity and possible stagnation or drop off of economic growth.

 

The recent ECB statement to the worlds gathered financial press was seen as very accommodating and dovish. The ECB President, Mr Mario Draghi said that he and his colleagues were in agreement and would do what it takes to ensure that Eurozone inflation meets the 2% target and that the employment outlook improves significantly. Mr Draghi used the phrase “No Limits” to reiterate how seriously the ECB is committed to these twin goals. If necessary, the European Central Bank is expected to announce additional measures as early as March. As the German Ifo survey contributes to the data that the ECB samples, today’s release will have added significance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURUSDH125012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.0896

 

Target 2: 1.0710

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

 

Daily control level: 1.0920

 

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPUSDH125012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.4382

 

Target 2: 1.4179

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128

 

Daily control level: 1.4245

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDJPYH125012016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 119.60

 

Target 2: 117.66

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.15

 

Daily control level: 116.40

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCHFH125012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.0234

 

Target 2: 1.0066

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

 

Daily control level: 1.0010

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCADH125012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.4287

 

Target 2: 1.4006

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0157

 

Daily control level: 1.4545

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDUSDH125012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7087

 

Target 2: 0.6923

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

 

Daily control level: 0.6870

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GOLDH125012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1112.00

 

Target 2: 1086.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.52

 

Daily control level: 1091.00

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/CLH6H125012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 33.96

 

Target 2: 30.70

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.97

 

Daily control level: 27.45

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 26.01.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2601EURUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

EURUSD has bounced off the top of the uptrend channel this morning, hinting that a move lower might be ahead.

 

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0830 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1.0805, which is the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0755, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could be observed further.

 

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0898, being the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0943, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2601GBPUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

GBPUSD continues to move lower after the pair bounced off the top of the downward trending channel yesterday.

 

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4277 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1.4121, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4100, which is a psychological support level, could take place next.

 

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4297, which the 1st pivot resistance point of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4329, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.

 

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2601USDJPYH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDJPY has bounced off the top of the downward trending channel, signalling a move higher might be ahead.

 

USDJPY needs to hold above 118.43 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

 

The initial upside target is 118.93, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 119.11 being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today, could likely take place next.

 

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 117.74, which 2nd pivot support level. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 117.17, being the USDJPY Daily Average True Range downside projection level, could occur next.

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2601USDCHFH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCHF is retesting a two-month high this morning, after an unsuccessful attempt yesterday.

 

USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0139 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.0196, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0234, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today.

 

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0097, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today. The extension further to 1.0066 could follow next.

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2601USDCADH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCAD took a break from a sharp decline off the recently made thirteen-year high.

 

USDCAD needs to hold above 1.4235 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside aim is 1.4346, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today. After the level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4427, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target.

 

If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4151, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target for today.

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2601AUDUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

AUDUSD is trying to trade higher this morning as the oil prices are rebounding.

 

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.6977 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7025, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7060 could follow next.

 

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.6895, being the pair’s 2nd pivot support of today. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.6850, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection level.

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2601GOLDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Gold reached a two-month high this morning.

 

Gold needs to hold above 1104.44 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1123.00, being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level together with the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.

 

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1099.99, which is the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2601OILUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Oil price is making one more recovery attempt this morning.

 

The commodity needs to break above 31.10 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 31.50, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 33.13 could follow next.

 

If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 39.13, being the commodity’s 1st pivot support of today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 27.01.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It is believed that the United States economy is in a process of recuperating and heading to a growth phase. Inflation according to the Federal Reserve is most likely to increase during the coming year. Or at least, deflationary pressures will wane as wage inflation begins to finally kick in and catch up with what have been encouraging employment numbers.

 

Also, it could be assumed that Oil prices are close to bottoming out and this could begin to stimulate demand as businesses and the consumer takes advantage of cheap petroleum.

 

This could eventually lead to the supply gap being finally closed and therefore, feed into the FOMC’s requirement which sees inflation approaching the 2% target and, in turn, see growth pick up.

 

The head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen will still be concerned that incoming data will derail her plans that according to the dot plot will lead to four interest rate hikes in 2016.

 

Yesterday Yellen received some good news with the Conference board publishing encourage Consumer Confidence data. There will be a further indication of the state of the US economy when on Friday when the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the latest quarter on quarter GDP data.

 

In light of the mixed data and with a market that simply does not believe the Federal Reserve will stick to its planned path for interest rates for the remainder of the year the issue of how Janet Yellen delivers the message becomes of paramount importance.

 

The form is not good for the FOMC. Only back in September 2015, the Federal Reserve missed an opportunity to increase interest rates when the market expected this to happen.

 

The overly dovish sentiment that Janet Yellen gave had the markets reappraising the state of the US economic outlook. The FOMC’s action caused a crisis of confidence amongst market participants.

 

The FOMC wants to avoid what happen last autumn as any signs of weakness or regret would be interpreted that the Feds Fund rate increase in December may have been a mistake.

 

Sticking to their guns and being committed to a view that their decision making is correct should be applauded, however, the jury is still out on the Federal Reserve’s handling of the great recession of 2008 and the fallout and effects that followed.

 

Just like the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Federal Reserve could have got their timing wrong and may need to give themselves some room for flexibility.

 

Being wedded to a policy, come what may of 4 rate increases during 2016 could look very foolish if this leads to the US economy being dragged back down into a painful recession.

 

The FOMC is hoping that the forthcoming data begins to stack up and is in line with their future dot plot for interest rates. However, it would seem prudent for the FOMC to make the market aware that there is room to manoeuvre if the carefully laid plans are derailed by the economic realities.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURUSDH127012016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.0951

 

Target 2: 1.0768

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

 

Daily control level: 1.0875

 

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPUSDH127012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.4465

 

Target 2: 1.4212

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0132

 

Daily control level: 1.4170

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDJPYH127012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 119.21

 

Target 2: 117.30

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.10

 

Daily control level: 117.60

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCHFH126012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.0252

 

Target 2: 1.1008

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

 

Daily control level: 1.0115

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCADH127012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.4262

 

Target 2: 1.3957

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0171

 

Daily control level: 1.4335

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDUSDH127012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7097

 

Target 2: 0.6944

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

 

Daily control level: 0.6915

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GOLDH127012016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1133.00

 

Target 2: 1106.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.66

 

Daily control level: 1109.00

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/CLH6H127012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 32.49

 

Target 2: 29.01

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 2.09

 

Daily control level: 29.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.01.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The S&P 500 and Dow30 indices fell more than 1% on the release of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and statement.

 

External crises, notably the issue of the ongoing Chinese contraction still weighs heavily on the markets. Furthermore, the markets have to deal with continuing worries about the direction of the price of crude Oil. There are fears that the move of WTI above the US$30.00 level will turn out to be a brief rally and that the downtrend will resume in short order.

 

In its statement, the Federal moved from its previous position of being in a “wait and see mode” to one where it is “closely monitoring” economic developments. The Federal Reserve reiterated its modest shift in its stance by saying. “The committee is closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labour market and inflation”.

 

Although the statement was not as dovish as some market participants would have liked, its change of stance has gone some way to addressing the concerns of investors.

 

Chairwoman, Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the Federal Reserve have given a nod to investors that global financial and stability issues are being worked into its models for employment and inflation forecasting. However, the drop in the major equity indices would seem to indicate that the FOMC’s action was not enough.

 

The fall in the indices could be seen as a market over-reaction as it is not obvious what the Federal Reserve could do at the moment other than telling the market that it is monitoring the developing situation from the sidelines and will be ready to act if necessary.

 

What we did not get yesterday from the FOMC was a surprise increase in the Fed Funds rate. The strong US Dollar has restricted growth and exports and with GDP still below 2%, it was always a very unlikely that the Federal Reserve would move now.

 

Yesterday’s statement portrays an FOMC that is frustrated by the lack of solid progress that is being made towards a the United States economic lift-off. These concerns will continue to keep the FOMC dependent on what it hopes is an improvement of incoming data.

 

This could lead to the Federal Reserve playing out a repeat scenario of 2015 where the next interest rate increase when it does happen, will be delayed until the end of this year. This means that the 4 increase dot plot forecast goes out the window.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURUSDH128012016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.0966

 

Target 2: 1.0812

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

 

Daily control level: 1.0815

 

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPUSDH128012016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.4369

 

Target 2: 1.4122

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

 

Daily control level: 1.4170

 

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDJPYH128012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 119.55

 

Target 2: 117.80

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06

 

Daily control level: 117.95

 

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCHFH128012016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.0230

 

Target 2: 1.0086

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

 

Daily control level: 1.0115

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCADH128012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.4246

 

Target 2: 1.3945

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0172

 

Daily control level: 1.4335

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDUSDH128012016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7112

 

Target 2: 0.6951

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

 

Daily control level: 0.6915

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GOLDH128012016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1132.00

 

Target 2: 1110.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.41

 

Daily control level: 1114.00

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/CLH6H128012016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 33.95

 

Target 2: 30.12

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 2.14

 

Daily control level: 30.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 29.01.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2901EURUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

EURUSD remains to range this morning, among the recently high market volatility.

 

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0926 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.0856, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0827, being the 2nd pivot support level of today, could be observed further.

 

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0974, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.1004, which is the 2nd intermediate pivot resistance level of today.

 

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2901GBPUSDH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

GBPUSD is retracing this morning after the pair reached a new two-week high yesterday.

 

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4332 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1.4271, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4155, which is the 2nd pivot support, could take place next.

 

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4433, which the 1st pivot resistance of today. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4474, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2901USDJPYH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDJPY has breached the uptrend daily target, as BoJ decided to proceed with further monetary easing this morning and cut the interest rate further.

 

USDJPY needs to hold above 118.73 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

 

The initial upside target is 122.00, which is the pair’s next psychological resistance point.

 

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 120.00 support level.

 

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2901USDCHFH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCHF has once again bounced off the top of the downtrend channel after the pair reached a new two-month high yesterday.

 

USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0138 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1.0117, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0235, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of today.

 

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0136, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. The extension further to 1.0101 could follow next.

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2901USDCADH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCAD is has bounced off the bottom of the daily uptrend channel this morning.

 

USDCAD needs to above 1.4032 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside aim is 1.4150, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target. After the level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4207, which is the 2nd pivot resistance level of today.

 

If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3942, being the 1st pivot support level of today.

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2901AUDUSDH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

AUDUSD has reached a new high of this year.

 

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7071 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7172, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7223 could follow next.

 

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7036, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection level.

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2901GOLDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Gold is retracing from the two-month high.

 

Gold needs to break below 1117.35 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1103.00, being the commodity’s 2nd intermediate pivot support level. Should this aim be reached, a further extension towards 1103.00, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could occur next.

 

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1123.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2901OILUSDH4-1.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Oil price is retesting the top of the downward trend channel this morning.

 

The commodity needs to hold below 33.95 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 31.78, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 31.78, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection, could follow next.

 

If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 35.60, being the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection target.

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 01.02.2016

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0102EURUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

EURUSD bounced off the top of the daily downtrend channel.

 

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0862 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.0905, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1000, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today, could be observed further.

 

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0759, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0102GBPUSDH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

GBPUSD continues to range above the recently breached downtrend channel.

 

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4267 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.4379, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4530, which is the 2nd pivot resistance, could take place next.

 

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4115, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0102USDJPYH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDJPY continues to trade higher, following the BoJ decision to raise the interest rate last Friday.

 

USDJPY needs to hold above 122.30 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

 

The initial upside target is 122.30, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 123.63, which is the 2nd pivot resistance, could follow next.

 

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 120.27, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0102USDCHFH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCHF is retesting the top of the upward trend channel this morning.

 

USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0203 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.0286, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0327, which is the 2nd pivot resistance level of today.

 

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0164, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today.

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0102USDCADH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCAD continues to retrace after the pair reached a thirteen-year high last week.

 

USDCAD needs to above 1.4014 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside aim is 1.4145, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target. After this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4213, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of today.

 

If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3920, being the 1st pivot support level of today.

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0102AUDUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

AUDUSD is retracing after the pair reached a new high of this year last Friday.

 

AUDUSD needs to break above 0.7093 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7144, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7176 could follow next.

 

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7010, being the 2nd pivot support of today.

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0102GOLDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Gold is aiming to retest the two-month high.

 

Gold needs to hold above 1114.81 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1129.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1131.57, which the commodity’s 3rd pivot resistance level could occur next.

 

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1109.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0102OILUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Oil price is retesting the top of the upward trend channel this morning.

 

The commodity needs to break above 34.30 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 35.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 36.01, which is the 2nd pivot resistance, could follow next.

 

If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 32.59, being the commodity’s 2nd pivot support level of today.

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 02.02.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0202EURUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

EURUSD bounced off the top of the daily downtrend channel once again, continuing the ranging pattern for the third week in a row.

 

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0870 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.0976, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1026, being the 3rd pivot resistance level of today, could be observed further.

 

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0824, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0202GBPUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

GBPUSD has bounced off the bottom of the daily downtrend channel this morning.

 

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4268 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1.4282, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4151, which is the 2nd pivot support, could take place next.

 

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4528, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0202USDJPYH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDJPY is retracing from one-month high the pair reached last Friday.

 

USDJPY needs to break above 121.03 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

 

The initial upside target is 121.55, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 123.84, which is the 2nd pivot resistance, could follow next.

 

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 119.83, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0202USDCHFH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCHF is retesting the top of the upward trend channel this morning.

 

USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0200 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.0261, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0295, which is the 2nd pivot resistance level of today.

 

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0151, being the 1st pivot support level of today.

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0202USDCADH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCAD continues to retrace after the pair reached a thirteen-year high last week.

 

USDCAD needs to above 1.3971 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside aim is 1.4116, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target. After this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4190, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of today.

 

If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3882, being the 1st pivot support level of today.

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0202AUDUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

AUDUSD is retesting the bottom of the recently formed uptrend channel.

 

AUDUSD needs to break above 0.7091 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7091, being the Pivot Point of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7165, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today, could follow next.

 

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7013, being the 2nd pivot support of today.

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0202GOLDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Gold is aiming to retracing from a two-month high, which the metal reached this morning.

 

Gold needs to hold below 1124.27 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1115.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1109.78, which the commodity’s 2nd pivot support level could occur next.

 

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1139.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0202OILUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Oil price has breached the bottom of the downtrend channel yesterday.

 

The commodity needs to hold below 32.91 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 30.61, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 29.00, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could follow next.

 

If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 33.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 03.02.2016.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0302EURUSDH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

EURUSD continues to trade higher after the pair bounced off the top of the daily downtrend channel on Monday. The range pattern, nevertheless still remains at place.

 

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.013 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.0969, which is the 2nd pivot resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1002, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today and also coinciding with 3rd pivot resistance level of today, could be observed further.

 

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0843, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0302GBPUSDH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

GBPUSD is making aa new three-month high this morning.

 

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4393 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.4544, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4579, which is the 3rd pivot resistance, could take place next.

 

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4282, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

 

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0302USDJPYH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDJPY continues to retrace from one-month high the pair reached last Friday. In addition, the pair has also breached the bottom of the uptrend channel this morning.

 

USDJPY needs to hold below 120.27 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

 

The initial downside target is 118.74, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 118.30, which is the 3rd pivot support level, could follow next.

 

If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 120.27, which is the Pivot Point level of today.

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0302USDCHFH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCHF has bounced off the top of the upward trend channel.

 

USDCHF needs to hold below 1.0191 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1.0136, being the 3rd pivot support level of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0108, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today.

 

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 1.0214, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0302USDCADH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCAD continues to retrace after the pair reached a thirteen-year high last week.

 

USDCAD needs to below 1.4023 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside aim is 1.3966, being the 1st pivot support level of today. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3925, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target.

 

If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4110, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0302AUDUSDH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

AUDUSD has broken the bottom of the recently formed uptrend channel. The pair is currently trying to reconfirm the breach.

 

AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7066 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7004, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.6947, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today, could follow next.

 

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7104, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0302GOLDH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Gold is remaining to concentrate at the two-month high, which it reached at the beginning of this week.

 

Gold needs to hold above 1127.27 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1136.00, being today’s 2nd pivot resistance. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1139.00, which the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today, could occur next.

 

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1115.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0302OILUSDH4-1.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Oil price is recovering after it has breached the bottom of the downtrend channel on Monday.

 

The commodity needs to hold above 31.16 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 32.91, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 33.81, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today, could follow next.

 

If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 29.20, being the 2nd pivot support of today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.02.2016

 

 

 

Bank of England rate decision day

 

Later today, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision. There seems a little possibility that rates will be increased today. In fact, recent comments by the Governor of the Bank of England, Mr Mark Carney have been dovish and market friendly.

 

Mr Carney has sighted the pessimistic growth global outlook, the collapse in commodity prices and less than encouraging wage and consumer inflation as reasons to put off increasing interest rates in 2016.

 

Far from being convinced of the inevitability of a rate increase happening once data begins to improve, some market commentators are now openly talking up the merits of the Bank of England reversing course and reducing the Official Bank Rate from its present level of 0.50%.

 

In today’s Super Thursday statements, the markets will be looking for a change in the mood of the Bank of England’s commentary. Will Mr Mark Carney now move to downgrading the previous projections for wages, employment and inflation? Furthermore, will we see a seismic shock as the markets have to deal with one or more members of the Monetary Policy Committee shifting their stance from hold to negative on interest rates?

 

The Bank of England does have some room to manoeuvre as the current overnight rate in relative terms is high when compared to say, Eurozone, Japanese, and Swiss interest rates. Therefore, the Bank of England has some way to go before it even has to contemplate moving towards negative rates.

 

The question however is, will cutting an already low level of interest rates had any real effect other than stoking the fire under the housing bubble. Japanese business has enjoyed low levels of interest cost for a considerable time without any noticeable change investment.

 

Fiscal measures could be reintroduced as was the case during the great recession of 2008. However, the massive stimulus programmes that were initiated by the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England have not brought the expected results.

 

The central banks of the world are fast running out of tools which they can use to stimulate their economies. A race to the bottom in a currency war is not a real solution.

 

It would appear that the coming months will be pivotal for Mr Carney and his counterparts at the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. The time is ripe for better solutions rather than more of the same. The problem for the decision makers is that there are no obvious alternatives.

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDH104022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.1171

 

Target 2: 1.1014

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

 

Daily control level: 1.0900

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDH1040202016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.4732

 

Target 2: 1.4436

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0158

 

Daily control level: 1.4370

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYH104022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 119.01

 

Target 2: 116.85

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.29

 

Daily control level: 120.15

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFH10402016-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.0234

 

Target 2: 0.9981

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

 

Daily control level: 1.0197

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADH104022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.3915

 

Target 2: 1.3599

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0187

 

Daily control level: 1.4110

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDH10402016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7261

 

Target 2: 0.7081

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

 

Daily control level: 0.7000

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDH104022016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1153.00

 

Target 2: 1130.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.49

 

Daily control level: 1121.00

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLH6H104022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 33.50

 

Target 2: 30.50

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 2.36

 

Daily control level: 34.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 05.02.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0502EURUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

EURUSD shot higher for the second consecutive day. Due to the NFP release the volatility is expected to be high this afternoon.

 

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.1170 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.1289, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. the 1st intermediate pivot resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1442, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today, could be observed further.

 

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1000, being the pair’s 2nd pivot support level of today.

 

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0502GBPUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

GBPUSD is retracing from a three-week high, which the pair reached yesterday.

 

GBPUSD needs to break above 1.4594 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.4715, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4798, which is the 3rd pivot resistance, could take place next.

 

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4426, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0502USDJPYH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDJPY continues to retrace from one-month high the pair reached last Friday.

 

USDJPY needs to hold below 117.17 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

 

The initial downside target is 115.60, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 114.40, which is the 3rd intermediate pivot support level, could follow next.

 

If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 118.88, which is the 2nd pivot resistance of today.

 

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0502USDCHFH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCHF declined lower after it reconfirmed the breach of the uptrend channel yesterday.

 

USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9974 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 0.98521, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9820, which is the 2nd pivot support level of today.

 

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 1.00027, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0502USDCADH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCAD continues to plunge after the pair reached a thirteen-year high last week.

 

USDCAD needs to below 1.3729 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside aim is 1.3570, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3503, which is the 3rd pivot support level of today.

 

If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3906, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today.

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0502AUDUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

AUDUSD has bounced off the top of the uptrend channel this morning.

 

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7197 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7275, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7333, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of today, could follow next.

 

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7108, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today.

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0502GOLDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Gold shot to a three-month high as the USD Dollar weakened further.

 

Gold needs to hold above 1150.59 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1166.00, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1179.73, which the commodity’s 3rd pivot resistance level of today, could occur next.

 

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1143.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/0502OILUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Oil price is retesting the top of the downtrend channel this morning.

 

The commodity needs to hold below 32.26 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 32.01, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 30.54, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could follow next.

 

If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 35.12, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 08-02-2016

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDH108022016ny.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

This morning EURUSD has traded in a volatile manner as the price action attempts to break out and break down from its opening days range.

 

The Daily Pivot at the 1.1170 levels has so far offered strong resistance to further upside momentum.

 

We are this afternoon monitoring a continuation of the move towards S1 at the 1.1088 level.

 

However, EURUSD first needs to breach the current price structure of the upward pointing Linear Regression Channel

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDH108022016ny.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

This morning GBPUSD initial attempted to break higher from its opening range as the price action traded above its Daily Pivot level at the 1.4509 level.

 

However, the progression towards the R1 at the 1.4567 did not materialize.

 

Subsequently, GBPUSD has traded lower as the price action broke back down through the Daily Pivot and sliced through S1 at the 1.4428 level.

 

This afternoon, we are monitoring the price action for a continuation of the move lower towards the S2 that is found at 1.4370 level.

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYH108022016-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

This morning USDJPY traded higher from the get-go as it moved away from the Daily Pivot level of 116.83.

 

However, USDJPY found strong resistance at the R1 which is at the 117.39.

 

Subsequently, USDJPY has reversed course and is now trading under the Daily Pivot.

 

This afternoon we are monitoring the price action for a possible test of S1 which is found at the 116.24 level.

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFH1080220106.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

This morning USDCHF has traded around the Daily Pivot that is found at the 0.9921 level.

 

Presently, USDCHF is now testing the R1 at the 0.9962 level and the upper level of the downward sloping linear regression channel.

 

This afternoon, I am monitoring USDCHF for a continuation of the move towards the 1.0000 significant number which also coincides with today’s Average True Range projection.

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADH108022016ny.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

This morning USDCAD has traded in a small range with the price action initially testing the Daily Pivot that is found at the 1.3847 level,

 

I am this afternoon monitoring the price action for a continuation of the move higher.

 

A breach of the downward sloping linear regression channel could see USDCAD test R1 at is found at the 1.3985 level.

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDH108022016-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

This morning AUDUSD broke above its opening range bit was not able to sustain a move above the Daily Pivot that is found at the 0.7111 level.

 

We are however monitoring the price action for a further test of the Daily Pivot as the downward correction failed to trade beneath prior swing lows at the 0.7073 and 0.7052 levels.

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDH108022016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Gold this morning found significant support at the daily Pivot that is located at the 1164.00 level.

 

The price action has subsequently traded higher as Gold has moved above from the prior day’s high at the 1174.00 level.

 

I am this afternoon monitoring the price action for a test of R1 at the 1183.00 level.

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLH6H108022016-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

This morning Oil attempted to break higher from its opening range but stiff resistance at the Daily Pivot which is found at the 31.30 level repelled this attempt.

 

Subsequently, Oil has traded lower as the price action broke under S1 at the 30.25 level.

 

This afternoon, we are monitoring Oil for a possible attempt of S2 that is found at the 29.53 level.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.02.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today at 3:00 PM London time, the Federal Reserve, Chairwoman, Mrs Janet Yellen will give testimony to the House Financial Services Committee on the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report.

 

This hearing takes place during uncertain times for both the financial markets and world economy. On Monday, the news that CreditSights In., had questioned the German banking colossus, Deutsche Bank’s ability to pay up on its bond obligations in 2017. This report helped to contribute to a meltdown in global indices values.

 

Although the senior management of Deutsche Bank was quick to issue statements that denied this analyst report, the damage had already been done. The news that highlighted the potential woes of a bank that is so key to Germany’s and Europe economic future has now put the spotlight back on Europe’s financial system.

 

The idea that we are about to revisit the dark days of 2008/2009 is a worrying spectre. Especially as confidence in Europe’s periphery is still fragile as Greece and Portugal once again returning back to the media and market spotlight.

 

Italy continues to struggle as it tries to break from the stranglehold of a deep recession and the move back into patchy growth. We do have news shortly from Istat which will publish the latest Italian Industrial Production number. However, following yesterday’s horrid publication by Destatis on German Industrial Production, the head of the European Central Bank will be looking over his shoulder and will be hoping for some positive news from his homeland.

 

Back to this afternoon’s event in Washington, Janet Yellen has the decision to take on the tone of the testimony. The FOMC has two key mandates which are to ensure price stability and a healthy employment outlook. Although the to-and-throw of short-term movements in the financial markets should not be of a concern, the Federal Reserve Chairwoman could address this subject during today’s key speech.

 

Of course, a shift to a dovish tone would undoubtedly go some way in giving comfort to investors who have seen the value of their equity holdings shrink since the beginning of 2016. Especially as the falls in equity value is highlighting the strain within the global banking system.

 

During today’s testimony, the market will be listening to the weighting that is given to the two key FOMC mandates. If Mrs Yellen sticks to the hawkish line that the labour market is strong and that economic weakness being a short-term phenomenon, them one could expect to see a continued move lower in equity values and the US Dollar gathering some respite.

 

However, according to market pricing the probability of the Federal Reserve dot plot that has forecast four rate increases during 2016 will just not happen. It would seem that the Federal Reserve will be lucky if it can force one rate hike in December. For sure March interest rate increase looks like it is off the table.

 

To end, the Italian Industrial Production number has just been reported as -0.7%. The forecast was for an improvement to 0.3%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDM3010022016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.1400

 

Target 2: 1.1180

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111

 

Daily control level: 1.1160

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDM3010022016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.4630

 

Target 2: 1.4315

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0160

 

Daily control level: 1.4370

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYM3010022016-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 116.55

 

Target 2: 113.65

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.47

 

Daily control level: 115.60

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFM3010022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 0.9825

 

Target 2: 0.9620

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

 

Daily control level: 0.9980

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADM3010022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.4040

 

Target 2: 1.3690

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0176

 

Daily control level: 1.3980

 

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDM3010022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7140

 

Target 2: 0.6995

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0075

 

Daily control level: 0.6970

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDM3010022016-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1204.00

 

Target 2: 1178.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.79

 

Daily control level: 1185.75

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLH6M3010022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 30.00

 

Target 2: 27.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.37

 

Daily control level: 30.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 11.02.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1102EURUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

EURUSD is trading higher this morning as the US dollar is weakening.

 

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.1253 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.1400, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1498, being 3rd intermediate pivot resistance level of today, could be observed further.

 

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1170, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1102GBPUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

GBPUSD has bounced off the bottom of the downtrend channel this morning.

 

GBPUSD needs to break below 1.4515 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1.4360, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4318, which is the 3rd pivot support, could take place next.

 

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4585, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1102USDJPYH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDJPY has breached the Daily Average True range downside target this morning, as the pair has reached a new one-year low.

 

USDJPY needs to hold below 113.89 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

 

The initial downside target is 110.41, which is the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 110.00, which is the pair’s next major psychological support level, could follow next.

 

If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 113.89, which is the Pivot Point of today.

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1102USDCHFH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCHF declined to a new two-month low this morning.

 

USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9753 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 0.9630, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9578, which is the 3rd pivot support level of today.

 

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9753, being the Pivot Point of today.

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1102USDCADH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCAD has recovered slightly this morning.

 

USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3914 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside aim is 1.4100, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3140, which is the 3rd pivot intermediate resistance level of today.

 

If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3829, being the 1st pivot support level of today.

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1102AUDUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

AUDUSD is declining lower this morning, after it proved unsuccessful to return trading within the upward trend channel.

 

AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7085 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.6990, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.6958, which is the 3rd pivot support level of today, could follow next.

 

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7133, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1102GOLDH4-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Gold shot to a new six-month high this morning.

 

Gold needs to hold above 1191.91 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1132.00, being the pair’s next long term pivot resistance. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1255.00, could occur next.

 

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1191.91, which is the metal’s Daily Pivot Point level of today.

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1102OILUSDH4-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Oil price has declined to a new three-week low this morning.

 

The commodity needs to hold below 29.67 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 27.91, being the 2nd pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 27.01, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could follow next.

 

If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 30.31, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 12.02.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1202EURUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

EURUSD has bounced off the top of the daily uptrend channel this morning.

 

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.1323 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1.1200, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1168, being 3rd pivot support level of today, could be observed further.

 

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1440, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1202GBPUSDH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

GBPUSD has bounced off the bottom of the newly created uptrend channel this morning.

 

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4473 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.4640, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4744, which is the 3rd pivot resistance, could take place next.

 

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4384, being the 1st pivot support level of today.

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1202USDJPYH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDJPY is consolidating this morning, after the pair has reached a new one-year low yesterday.

 

USDJPY needs to hold below 112.32 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

 

The initial downside target is 111.00, which is the pair’s the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 109.71, which is the pair’s 2nd pivot support level, could follow next.

 

If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 114.00, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection.

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1202USDCHFH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCHF has slightly recovered after the pair reached a new two-month low yesterday.

 

USDCHF needs to hold above 0.9714 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 0.9830, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9870, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of today.

 

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9667, being the 1st pivot support of today.

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1202USDCADH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCAD continues to range this morning.

 

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3944 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside aim is 1.3811, being the 2nd pivot support level of today.When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3760, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target.

 

If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4006, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1202AUDUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

AUDUSD is continues to range below the recently breached uptrend channel.

 

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7080 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7215, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7250, which is the 2nd pivot resistance level of today, could follow next.

 

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7000, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection level together with a strong psycological support.

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1202GOLDH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Gold shot to a one-year high as market uncertainty persists.

 

Gold needs to hold above 1234.64 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1267.00, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1275.00, could occur next.

 

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1225.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today.

 

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1202OILUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Oil price is rebounding from a three-week low this morning.

 

The commodity needs to hold above 29.19 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 30.53, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 32.02, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today, could follow next.

 

If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 28.70, being the 2nd pivot support level of today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 15.02.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1502EURUSDH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

EURUSD has breached the bottom of the uptrend channel on Friday.

 

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.1266 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1.1111, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1080, being 3rd pivot support level of today, could be observed further.

 

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1266, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today.

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1502GBPUSDH4-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

GBPUSD has once again bounced off the bottom of the newly created uptrend channel this morning.

 

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4504 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.4565, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4657, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today, could take place next.

 

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4377, being the 2nd pivot support level of today.

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1502USDJPYH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDJPY has breached the top of the downtrend channel as the pair is recovering from last week’s one-year low.

 

USDJPY needs to hold above 112.80 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

 

The initial downside target is 115.07, which is the pair’s the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 115.82, which is the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level, could follow next.

 

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 112.80, which is today’s Pivot Point of the pair.

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1502USDCHFH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCHF continues to recover after the pair breached the bottom of the downtrend channel last thursday.

 

USDCHF needs to hold above 0.9755 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 0.9878, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9900.

 

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9755, being the Pivot Point of today.

 

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1502USDCADH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCAD is retesting the bottom of the daily uptrend channel.

 

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3874 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside aim is 1.3722, being the 2nd pivot support level of today.When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3679, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target.

 

If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3935, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.

 

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1502AUDUSDH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

AUDUSD continues to range below the recently breached uptrend channel.

 

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7100 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7208, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7250, could follow next.

 

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7100, being the pair’s pivot point of today.

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1502GOLDH4.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Gold continues to decline after the metal reached one-year high last week.

 

Gold needs to hold below 1239.00 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1200.00, being the pair’s next psychological support level. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1180.00, could occur next.

 

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1239.30, which is the metal’s Pivot Point of today.

 

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1502OILUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Oil price continues to strengthen this morning.

 

The commodity needs to hold above 30.77 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 32.99, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 32.32, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today, could follow next.

 

If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 29.82, being the 1st pivot support level of today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.02.2016

 

 

 

 

News that the Russian and Saudi Oil Ministers have agreed to hold talks about cutting Oil production later today has sent Light Sweet Crude rallying above the US$31.00 per barrels in early morning trading.

 

Today’s talks are due to take place in Doha and have been brokered by the Qatari Oil Minister. This closed door event should resemble a poker match between two evenly matched and very competitive players as both participants will do what they can to minimise concessions.

 

That the Venezuelan Oil Minister will also be in attendance could be positive in pushing the talks to a successive outcome. Venezuela has suffered more than most from the collapse in the price of crude as the Government of this Latin American country struggles to maintain budget obligations. Therefore, it is in its interest to push a deal through.

 

Although there has been talk of a deal before, this appears to be the first serious meeting between the world’s big two oil producers. The timing of this meeting comes at a crucial juncture in Middle East politics with events in Syria threatening to redraw the geostrategic map.

 

The Russian military involvement in Syria and a Saudi Arabian threat to intervene military opens up the spectre of an armed clash between these two countries. Therefore, it is rather fortuitous that both the Governments have decided to open up a channel of communication.

 

The Saudi Government may feel that as it holds the strongest hand might decide that it does not want to comprise by cutting its own production. The Russians, however, have technical issues that restrict its ability cut oil production as the harsh Siberian climate could lead to wells being lost.

 

An agreement to introduce production quotas will need the Saudi’s to move away from their current policy that requires all producers agree on crude production limits. However with Iran now freed from international sanctions the prospect of increased production from this country will make the likelihood of reaching an agreement a difficult undertaking.

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDM3016022016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.1280

 

Target 2: 1.1025

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128

 

Daily control level: 1.1270

 

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDM3016022016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.4595

 

Target 2: 1.4270

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0162

 

Daily control level: 1.4530

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYM3016022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 116.30

 

Target 2: 112.85

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.74

 

Daily control level: 111.60

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFM3016022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.9980

 

Target 2: 0.9755

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112

 

Daily control level: 0.9720

 

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADM3016022016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.4000

 

Target 2: 1.3670

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0165

 

Daily control level: 1.3850

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDM3016022016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7280

 

Target 2: 0.7070

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

 

Daily control level: 0.7125

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDM3016022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1230.00

 

Target 2: 1185.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 22.89

 

Daily control level: 1245.00

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLH6M3016022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 32.00

 

Target 2: 28.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 2.13

 

Daily control level: 29.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.02.2016

 

 

 

 

 

The US, Federal Reserve Open Market Committee will today publish the much anticipated minutes of its last meeting.

 

These minutes are a detailed account of last Federal Reserve meeting. As such, this publication provides to market participants and financial media some colour on the backdrop of the meeting. These minutes allows traders to gain insights on how individual FOMC members are positioned with respect to interest rates as we approach the next Federal Reserve meeting that takes place in March.

 

We expect that this publication will portray rather balanced tone were the bias for tightening is limited by the current uncertainty that has gripped the market.

 

The minutes of the December meeting presented a united picture in terms of how the committee members unanimously voted for a rate increase. However, some members of the FOMC did voice concerns that this decision to hike the Fed Funds rate may have been premature.

 

Market volatility is bound to increase just prior and during the publication. However, what will be of interest will be to see if the dissenting voices within the Federal Reserve are getting stronger and if other members of the committee who previously backed Decembers rate increase now appear to be regretting their decision.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDM3017022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.1270

 

Target 2: 1.1015

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127

 

Daily control level: 1.1190

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDM3017022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.4470

 

Target 2: 1.4135

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0166

 

Daily control level: 1.4515

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYM3017022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 115.90

 

Target 2: 112.30

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.80

 

Daily control level: 114.90

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFM3017022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.9995

 

Target 2: 0.9775

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111

 

Daily control level: 0.9845

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADM3017022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.4025

 

Target 2: 1.3700

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0164

 

Daily control level: 1.3705

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDM301702216-1.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 0.7210

 

Target 2: 0.7010

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

 

Daily control level: 0.7120

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDM3017022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1224.00

 

Target 2: 1177.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 23.42

 

Daily control level: 1217.55

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLH6M3017022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 31.00

 

Target 2: 27.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 2.06

 

Daily control level: 31.50

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.02.2016

 

 

Yesterday, the Unite States, Federal Reserve published the minutes of January’s interest rate decision.

 

It was expected that the FOMC would take into account the events since the December interest rate rise and this was what the message the markets received.

 

The FOMC minutes, on the whole, gave us no surprises with the transcripts being more or less in line with last week’s testimony by the Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen to the House Financial Services Committee.

 

Fed Officials saw the events since December have increased the Downside risk. The inflation outlook remained uncertain and external factors are a continued source of concern with the confusing situation in China hindering the FOMC’s policy decision making.

 

Furthermore, the FOMC Expect inflation to be lower for a long time due to the depressed price of crude oil. The FOMC was of the opinion that oil and an improvement in the US economy could help bring inflation back to target but was not sure how long the downside risks will last for.

 

The strength of the US Dollar was discussed and according to the minutes with concerns that the Green Backs inflated value would hinder a recovery in the manufacturing sector.

 

Of all the concerns the FOMC highlighted the high volatility in the financial markets as the biggest issue and could lead to an amplification of the downside risks.

 

The Federal Reserved based the December increase on data that indicated that the job market is strong and that the expectation that inflation will increase.

 

The landscape since the December rate hike has changed dramatically. What is certain is that the FOMC would not have moved to increase interest rates in December if these events had happened in November.

 

The minutes portrayed an FOMC that is not only data dependent but also unsure of the trend of the data.

 

This leads us nicely to the forecasts made by the Federal Reserve which according to their now discredited dot plot predicted that there will be four interest rate increases in 2016. Although the FOMC have not admitted defeat, the dot plot is no longer being mentioned and the idea that the FOMC will abide by their prediction has been priced out by the market.

 

As if history is about to repeat itself and very much like the back end of 2015 the market has increased the odd of a December increase.

 

Such a move will only happen if the data fits.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDM3018022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.1245

 

Target 2: 1.1005

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120

 

Daily control level: 1.1180

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDM3018022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.4450

 

Target 2: 1.4140

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0154

 

Daily control level: 1.4340

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYM3018022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 115.65

 

Target 2: 112.40

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.64

 

Daily control level: 114.85

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFM3018022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.0030

 

Target 2: 0.9815

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

 

Daily control level: 0.9845

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADM3018022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.3840

 

Target 2: 1.3505

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0169

 

Daily control level: 1.3910

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDM3018022016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7280

 

Target 2: 0.7100

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

 

Daily control level: 0.7080

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDM3018022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1232.00

 

Target 2: 1185.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 23.36

 

Daily control level: 1217.55

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLH6M3018022016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 31.00

 

Target 2: 27.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 2.13

 

Daily control level: 31.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 19.02.2016

 

 

This morning, the British Prime Minister, Mr David Cameron will hold intensive meetings with other European Union leaders.

 

The discussions have been portrayed as a high-stakes meeting which will define not only Britain’s relationship with the European Union but also the success or failure of the whole European project.

 

Mr Cameron has to return from the meetings with an agreement that he can be presented to the right of the Conservative Party and also to a British public that is becoming increasingly dissolution by the European Union.

 

The British Prime Minister has focussed on two main areas which he feels concessions can be extracted from the UK’s European partners.

 

These being the explosive subject of migrant welfare and the protection of the City of London’s dominance as a global centre for finance.

 

The whole European Union Migrant issues is a very popular story with the British tabloid press. However, in reality, the cost to the British taxpayer is negligible. Migration from countries like Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia have benefited the country as young and enthusiastic new citizens have integrated into the fabric of the country and have contributed to the economy.

 

Mr Cameron, however, wants concessions which will appease Conservative voters who have been enticed the message that is being delivered from UKIP that anything and everything European is bad for Britain.

 

A deal on migration will probably be fudged through but this will be much to the annoyance of Eastern European leaders who will argue that a deal to limit welfare payments to their former citizens will go against the ethos of the European Union’s project.

 

On the question of over regulation of the City of London’s financial institutions, there does need to be a review of the current legislation so as to ensure it is fit for purpose. However, it has only been eight years since we had a financial meltdown that was caused in part by a lack of regulation. Therefore, it is difficult to see the British Prime Minister getting his own way and to a degree, we should be thankful that the big financial institutions are not allowed to do as they please.

 

London’s role as a global financial centre will only grow over the coming years. Attempts by Paris and Frankfurt to rest the crown from the City have failed due to London’s attractive cocktail of skilled labour and lifestyle choices. London will survive an exit from the European Union but Frankfurt and Paris will once more try to challenge the old lady’s preeminent position.

 

The European Union and Britain need each other. The UK and the Union are massive trading partners and their economies and financial systems are just too integrated for a Brexit to even be contemplated.

 

The discussion about Brexit needs to be expanded as there is a need for an agenda to be put together which looks at reforming the European Union. It is hoped that today’s discussions are just the beginning of a thorough and comprehensive EU-wide reform process.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDM3019022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.1225

 

Target 2: 1.0990

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119

 

Daily control level: 1.1180

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDM3019022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.4480

 

Target 2: 1.4190

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0148

 

Daily control level: 1.4395

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYM3019022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 114.90

 

Target 2: 111.50

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.67

 

Daily control level: 114.50

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFM3019022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.0035

 

Target 2: 0.9820

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106

 

Daily control level: 0.9845

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADM3019022016-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.3800

 

Target 2: 1.3675

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0167

 

Daily control level: 1.3910

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDM3019022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7260

 

Target 2: 0.7055

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

 

Daily control level: 0.7080

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDM3019022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1256.00

 

Target 2: 1205.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 23.30

 

Daily control level: 1200.00

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLH6M3019022016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 32.50

 

Target 2: 28.50

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 2.04

 

Daily control level: 28.65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 22.02.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2202EURUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

EURUSD has resumed the downward trend after the last week’s consolidation

 

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.1110 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1.1037, which is the 2nd pivot support level. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.0990, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could be observed further.

 

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1155, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today.

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2202GBPUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

GBPUSD plummeted this morning, as the concerns over the potential exit of Britain from the EU worries investors. At the moment, the pair is retesting the bottom of the newly created downtrend channel.

 

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4353 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1.4095, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4050, could take place next.

 

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4353, being the Pivot Point of today.

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2202USDJPYH4-1.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDJPY is trading higher this morning, with the likely intention to retest the top of the downward trend channel.

 

USDJPY needs to hold above 112.76 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

 

The initial upside target is 113.82, which is the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 114.20, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today, could follow next.

 

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 112.15, which is today’s 1st pivot support level of the pair together with the previous low of the pair.

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2202USDCHFH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCHF is trading higher this morning, after the pair broke a short-term uptrend channel last Friday.

 

USDCHF needs to hold above 0.9917 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 1.0000, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today together with the pair’s major resistance level. Should this target be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0027, which is the 3rd pivot resistance of today.

 

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9892, being the 1st intermediate pivot support of today.

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2202USDCADH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCAD has once again breached the bottom of the daily uptrend channel.

 

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3774 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

 

The initial downside aim is 1.3671, being the 2nd intermediate pivot support of today. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3605, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target.

 

If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3836, being the 1st pivot resistance of today.

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2202AUDUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

AUDUSD returned to trade within the uptrend channel limits this morning.

 

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7125 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7220, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7250, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today, could follow next.

 

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7125, being the pair’s pivot point of today.

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2202GOLDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Gold has breached the bottom of the uptrend channel this morning, signalling a move lower might be ahead.

 

Gold needs to hold below 1226.63 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

 

The initial downside target is 1199.00, being the commodity’s Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1190.00, could occur next.

 

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1226.63, which is the metal’s Pivot Point of today.

 

 

OIL

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2202OILUSDH4.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Oil price continues to recover this morning.

 

The commodity needs to hold above 32.24 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

 

The initial upside target is 34.08, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 34.61, could follow next.

 

If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

 

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 31.37, being 1st pivot support level of today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

[Atlas CapitalFx]

MORE ON ACFXblog.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 23.02.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

This morning 9:00 AM London time Ifo Institute for Economic Research will release the German Ifo Business Climate numbers.

 

This report is released on a monthly basis and some three weeks into the current month.

 

The Ifo is a survey of current and future business sentiment with respondents also requested to rate their expectation six months forward from the survey date.

 

Due to the size and breadth of this report, the result of this survey is highly respected. This is because some 7000 business across Germany which are active in diverse sectors from manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail are requested to respond.

 

The German Ifo Business Climate Survey is a leading indicator of the economic health of the country. As businesses can quickly recognize and adapt to the constantly changing market environment, this survey has proven to be a timely leading indicator to possible future economic activity.

 

Germany is the 4th largest economy in the world and by far the biggest and the most dominant within the European Union. This makes what happens in Germany very important. The release of the German Ifo can affect economic expectations and values of financial instruments not only in Germany but throughout the European Union.

 

The Ifo furthermore can have a dramatic effect on the Euro and the Euro crosses. Market volatility around the time of the Ifo release can potentially increase.

 

The forecasts for this month release are projecting the slight decrease to 107.0, as compared to the previous number of 107.3.

 

A result that is higher than expected could potentially have a positive effect on the Euro currency whereas an actual release that is lower than expected could see the single currency come under pressure.

 

The reason for this is an optimistic business outlook can precede an increase in business activity and economic growth whereas a pessimistic business outlook could indicate a future contraction in business activity and possible stagnation or drop off of economic growth.

 

As economic expansion is seen as being inflationary and economic contraction being deflationary the European Central Bank, (ECB) may step in an increase or decrease interest rates so as to ensure that the influential and dominant German economy does not grow or contract too quickly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDM3023022016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.1140

 

Target 2: 1.0915

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112

 

Daily control level: 1.1140

 

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDM3023022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.4305

 

Target 2: 1.3990

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0158

 

Daily control level: 1.4405

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYM3023022016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 114.40

 

Target 2: 111.30

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.55

 

Daily control level: 113.40

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFM3023022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.0100

 

Target 2: 0.9890

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

 

Daily control level: 0.9885

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADM3023022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.3955

 

Target 2: 1.3550

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0149

 

Daily control level: 1.3845

 

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDM3023022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 0.7320

 

Target 2: 0.7130

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

 

Daily control level: 0.7065

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GOLDM3023022016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1235.00

 

Target 2: 1182.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 26.52

 

Daily control level: 1234.00

 

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

 

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CLJ6M3023022016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 35.20

 

Target 2: 31.40

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.90

 

Daily control level: 31.35

 

 

 

 

 

 

MORE ON ACFXblog.com