Atlas CapitalFx Posted August 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 13, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 13.08.2015 This evening the Greek Parliament is due to assemble for an emergency session to approve the country’s third bailout agreement, concluded with the international creditors on Tuesday. The timing of the event is still uncertain. The activation of the deal will mean the Greece will be giving most of its sovereignty to the creditors, represented by the IMF, the ECB and the European Commission. The 29 pages of the new agreement, among the others, quotes the following: “The (Greek) government commits to consult and agree with the European commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund on all actions relevant for the achievement of the objectives of the memorandum of understanding before these are finalised and legally adopted.” The arrangement will also induce the major reforms in pension and taxation systems, as well as in health and welfare sectors. Privatizations of the public properties will be extended significantly. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras remains positive that the deal will be approved, however, he has certain doubts whether all eurozone members will agree to it. “Despite the obstacles that some are trying to put before us, I’m optimistic we will reach the agreement and loan support from the European mechanism, which will put a final end to economic uncertainty,” Tsipras was quoted referring to the 86 billion euro deal during a visit to the Ministry of economics. Germany, among a few more European states, remains sceptical regarding the matter. Even though it considers the deal goes in the right direction it is not yet ready to say whether it was prepared for a vote in the Bundestag. Before the deal goes to Bundestag, it has to be approved by the Greek Parliament, which should be completed by the early hours of the Friday morning. As the ruling party Syriza has the opposition party support, the confidence that the bill will pass is very high. The approval of the deal will likely to bring the dissolution of the Syriza and forming a new party as soon as this autumn since the disagreements within the party are widening. Syriza MP Costas Isichos said the vote would lead to an “immediate divorce.” “We are facing major political developments where the ‘no’ front will take shape,” he continued, referring to the outcome of last month’s referendum on austerity measures. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1308EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: UP Target 1: 1.1272 Target 2: 1.1042 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115 Daily control level: 1.0980 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1308GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.5713 Target 2: 1.5507 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103 Daily control level: 1.5670 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1308USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 124.96 Target 2: 123.44 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.7588 Daily control level: 123.80 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1308USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9848 Target 2: 0.9658 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095 Daily control level: 0.9710 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1308USDCADH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.3099 Target 2: 1.2855 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122 Daily control level: 1.2910 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1308AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7472 Target 2: 0.7282 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095 Daily control level: 0.7425 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1308GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1141.00 Target 2: 1110.16 Projected range in ATR’s: 15.42 Daily control level: 1077.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1308BRENTH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 52.00 Target 2: 48.68 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.6587 Daily control level: 55.50 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted August 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 14, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.08.2015 Greek Government vote on the third bailout package, which has finally taken place this morning, was approved by 222 votes to 64, with only 11 abstentions. Preceding that, however, there was a serious disunity in the Parliament. “In angry exchanges, the conservative opposition rounded on the government, warning it not to take its support for granted. “If you want to provoke us – and for us to vote for it – you can’t have it both ways,” Vangelis Meimarakis, the leader of the New Democracy party told finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos” – reported by the watchers of the Greek debates. “On the left, former energy minister Panayiotis Lafazanis, who leads a rebel bloc of around a quarter of Syriza’s 149 MPs, pledged to “smash the eurozone dictatorship”, while in her concluding pre-vote remarks, Konstantopoulou announced: “I am not going to support the prime minister anymore.” Looking at the rest of the market, the German economy, the largest in the European Union, expanded less than forecasted as the morning release of the country’s preliminary quarterly GDP revealed. The GDP figure rose to mere 0.4% instead of projected 0.5%. It was also significantly lower than the 0.7% number of the May’s release. The Greek crisis and China’s turmoil have both played a substantial role in the decreasing global demand. French Preliminary GDP release had a similar outcome with the number coming to 0.0% instead of 0.2% increase. This was a large drop comparing to the May publication when the number stood at 0.7% after the revision. Later this afternoon, at 1:30 pm CET, we will see the release of the monthly Canadian Manufacturing Sales number, which represents the change in the total value of sales made by manufacturers. This is one of the leading indicators of the economic health, as manufacturing industry is fast affected by the market circumstances and is an early indicator of hiring, investment and spending. This time the number is projected to expand to 2.3% comparing to the 0.1% of last month. At the same time, there will be monthly the US Producer Price Index will be published. PPI is a weighted index of the wholesale prices and shows trend within the US physical goods-producing industries such as manufacturing and commodities market and is therefore, a leading indicator of the country’s inflation. This time PPI is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the 0.4% figure published last month. The US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment Index will close the economic news week at 3:00 pm. Financial confidence is an important component of the consumer spending, which account for a major part of a country’s economic activity. The figure is based on the survey of about 500 respondents, rating the relative present and future economic conditions. This month the index is projected to increase from 93.1 to 93.5 mark. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1408EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1256 Target 2: 1.1040 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108 Daily control level: 1.0980 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1408GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.5709 Target 2: 1.5507 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101 Daily control level: 1.5670 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1408USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 124.96 Target 2: 123.44 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.7588 Daily control level: 123.80 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1408USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9857 Target 2: 0.9667 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095 Daily control level: 0.9710 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1408USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.3184 Target 2: 1.2934 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0125 Daily control level: 1.2910 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1408AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7452 Target 2: 0.7262 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095 Daily control level: 0.7425 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1408GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1129.90 Target 2: 1100.12 Projected range in ATR’s: 14.89 Daily control level: 1077.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1408BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 51.20 Target 2: 47.96 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.6214 Daily control level: 55.50 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted August 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.08.2015 Friday’s positive US data helped the US Dollar Index to rebound from the recent decline, when the currency was trading at the four-week low, below 96.00 last week. The monthly Producer Price Index, representing the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers and leading indicator of the consumer inflation, came to 0.2%, higher than projected 0.1%. Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment has declined for the second consecutive month, published at 92.9, comparing to the expected 93.5 figure. Financial confidence is of crucial importance to the consumer spending and is accounting for the majority of economic activity. The overall trend for the data is on the rise since the middle of 2011. This morning Asian shares continued on the way down as Chinese market slump is still pressuring the global marketplace. Despite the fact that the Yuan has stabilized for the last number of days, underlining concerns regarding weaker Chinese economy and possibility of the further Yuan depreciation is one of the substantial obstacles for the market to recover. Last week’s China’s currency devaluation caused the investors to consider other markets such as Turkey and Malaysia, with the both countries undergoing political crises at the moment. Oil prices dropped to the six-year low as more oil rigs were opened last week. This has put an additional weight on the oil-export depending economies. USDCAD is nearing to retest 11-year low of 1.3210 it reached a week ago. Australian Dollar has also rebounded lower and is now trading around 0.7350 level, close to the AUDUSD six-year low of 0.7210. With the markets weakening globally, it will probably add a further boost to the US currency, as for now it is considered a “safe heaven” investment, with so many markets facing high volatility and unpredictability. In addition, the potential interest rate hike later this year, adds strength to the major world reserve currency. Today proves to be a rather quiet day with regards to the economic news releases. Adding that it is also the middle of the holiday’s month, no major market moves are expected to occur today. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1708EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.1226 Target 2: 1.1006 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110 Daily control level: 1.1210 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1708GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.5751 Target 2: 1.5551 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100 Daily control level: 1.5670 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1708USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 124.93 Target 2: 123.51 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.7129 Daily control level: 125.25 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1708USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9843 Target 2: 0.9661 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091 Daily control level: 0.9710 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1708USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.3213 Target 2: 1.2967 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0123 Daily control level: 1.2910 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1708AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7465 Target 2: 0.7283 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095 Daily control level: 0.7425 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1708GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1129.59 Target 2: 1099.39 Projected range in ATR’s: 15.10 Daily control level: 1077.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1708BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 50.34 Target 2: 47.20 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5664 Daily control level: 55.50 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted August 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.08.2015 This morning at 9:30 am London time, the Office for National Statistics we will release the UK Consumer Price Index, which it is considered a benchmark for the U.K. economy inflation gauge as it measures the change in the goods and services purchased by the consumers. The CPI is used for the Bank of England inflation target, which is currently set at 2%. The inflation rate is significant to a currency valuation because the rising consumer prices lead to the rising country’s interest rate. The index inspects the weighted average of prices of a given basket, compounded out of consumer goods and services, which include items such food, medical services and transportation. The CPI is calculated by averaging the prices of the basket items, before categorising them by their importance. The CPI number was steadily declining since the second half of 2011, when inflation hit the top of 5.2% in July. Last March the United Kingdom has officially entered “no growth zone” with the release coming to 0.0% for the first time in the index history. The May release disappointed the markets even further when it was published at -0.1%, entering the phase of deflation and prolonging the long-awaited interest rate hike further. Even though since then the data is steadily fluctuating between -0.1% to 0.1%, the analysts expect the inflation indicator to drop even lower in the near future. The British economy however still remains less susceptible to the economic slowdown than the rest of its European neighbours, since keeping own currency allows UK for more freedom in market adjustments as well as to some extend prevents the spread of contagion from the destabilized recently Eurozone. GBPUSD is fluctuating in 1.5670- 1.5460 range for the fifth consecutive week after it reconfirmed the breach of the upward trendline in the middle of July. The CPI is projected to come out without changes at 0.0%, with the numbers coming lower than projected could likely have a weakening effect on the British Pound. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1808EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.1181 Target 2: 1.0971 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105 Daily control level: 1.1210 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1808GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.5681 Target 2: 1.5483 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099 Daily control level: 1.5670 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1808USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 125.05 Target 2: 123.71 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.6740 Daily control level: 125.25 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1808USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9876 Target 2: 0.9700 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088 Daily control level: 0.9710 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1808USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.3198 Target 2: 1.2958 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120 Daily control level: 1.2910 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1808AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7461 Target 2: 0.7281 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090 Daily control level: 0.7425 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1808GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1132.12 Target 2: 1102.72 Projected range in ATR’s: 14.70 Daily control level: 1077.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1808BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 50.23 Target 2: 47.23 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5007 Daily control level: 55.50 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted August 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 19, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 19.08.2015 Asian shares dropped to two-year low this morning, as Chinese stock market continues to decline, following last week’s yuan devaluation. Fears about the stability of the China’s economy influenced a further sell-off with Shanghai Composite Index sliding 6.1%. In a stabilization attempt, yesterday China’s Central bank injected 120 Billion yuan into the market, which was largest since January 2014 when the bank added 150 billion yuan liquidity through 14-day repos. However, market confidence declined further, when the China’s “national team”, the government assigned group, which was buying stocks to support the market, has reduced its operations, causing the concerns that the government is withdrawing its support. “China’s securities regulator said late last week that the market had normalised and the government would allow market forces to play a bigger role in determining stock prices” – Reuters reports. The slowdown of the China’s economy has substantially weakened commodity prices. Copper value, for example, slid to six-year low, breaking the psychological level of 5.000 US dollars per tonne and now trading below it. Brent price declined to more than a five-month low of 48.44 yesterday, continuing the downward trend it set at the end of the June last year. Presently the main concerns of the global investors are the Chinese economy and the US interest rate hike, which is expected to be introduced by the end of this year including the possibility of this action as early as the following month. Following last week yuan devaluation and current market turmoil, there are fears that the crisis will spread to the other economies, causing pressure even on the US-denominated debt. The emerging economies markets were hit the hardest when MSCI emerging markets index dropped to more than 20%, its lowest level since 2011. The number of the emerging markets currencies are facing the liquidity outflow. The investments are being transferred to the US dollar, currently the market’s “safe heaven”, with the prospects of the nearing interest rate hike adding stability to the major world’s reserve currency. The US S&P 500 however, slid to 0.26% yesterday. The September’s futures of the UK’s FTSE 100 have also opened lower this morning after the trend formed a lower high last week. Gold, conversely, is trading higher currently targeting to retest last week’s high of 1127.00, after it reconfirmed the breach of the downward trend channel last Wednesday. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1908EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.1121 Target 2: 1.0918 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105 Daily control level: 1.1210 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1908GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5763 Target 2: 1.5553 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105 Daily control level: 1.5670 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1908USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 125.04 Target 2: 123.74 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.6500 Daily control level: 125.25 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1908USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 0.9857 Target 2: 0.9683 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087 Daily control level: 0.9710 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1908USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.3176 Target 2: 1.2938 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120 Daily control level: 1.2910 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1908AUDUSDH12.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7425 Target 2: 0.7245 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090 Daily control level: 0.7425 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1908GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1132.24 Target 2: 1102.84 Projected range in ATR’s: 14.70 Daily control level: 1077.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/1908BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 50.19 Target 2: 47.21 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4900 Daily control level: 55.50 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted August 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 20.08.2015 Today Greece prepares to receive the first tranche of the new 86 billion euro bailout deal, which was approved by German Bundestag yesterday. However, there is still a lot of scepticism whether Greece will be able to implement all the reforms required by the three-year financial aid programme. The cash-strapped country is due to receive the first instalment from the European Stability Mechanism amounting to 26 billion euro, 13 billion euro of which will be available immediately, so the bond’s repayment to the European Central Bank can be made without delay. The rest of the funds will be distributed to the country in several parts and will help Greece to recapitalize its struggling banking sector. Under the current program Greece should undertake strict conditions which are “aiming at setting right public finances and administration and dealing with the economy and problems in the financial sector” – the Dutch Finance Minister and Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem said in his statement. The implementation of the reforms will be closely monitored and assessed whether all the commitments are met. The International Monetary Fund will review the current Greece bailout programme in order to decide whether to participate in it. The agreement was approved by the German Bundestag after the intensive debates regarding the sustainability of the new deal. “Following three hours of lively debate, 453 voted in favour of the rescue package, while 113 voted against it and 18 MPs abstained. A total of 63 MPs of Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU conservative alliance rebelled against the government despite warnings that there would be consequences if they failed to toe the party line. Three conservative MPs were among those who abstained” – as the Guardian reports. “Bundestag observers said that despite being held during the summer holiday and with some MPs either ill or unable to return from far-flung places, never had so few voted in such an important vote. It was a sign of how controversial the topic has been” – it continues. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2008EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.1217 Target 2: 1.1021 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105 Daily control level: 0.0980 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2008GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5781 Target 2: 1.5577 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102 Daily control level: 1.5550 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2008USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 125.44 Target 2: 124.12 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.6561 Daily control level: 123.00 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2008USDCHFH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 0.9744 Target 2: 0.9570 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087 Daily control level: 0.9900 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2008USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.3247 Target 2: 1.3007 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120 Daily control level: 1.2960 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2008AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7434 Target 2: 0.7258 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088 Daily control level: 0.7425 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2008GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1148.02 Target 2: 1119.10 Projected range in ATR’s: 14.46 Daily control level: 1112.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2008BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 48.77 Target 2: 45.77 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5029 Daily control level: 51.10 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted August 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 21.08.2015 A little over 7 months ago Alexis Tsipras led his SYRIZA party to an election victory on January 26. Mr. Tsipras since taking the leadership of the radical left SYRIZA in 2009 has been a driving force that has swept away the political elite that has taken Greece to the brink of ruin and bankruptcy. Alexis has had an eventful tenure as the Greek Prime. His party was elected to office on a promise to roll back the much-hated austerity program. His leadership did cause a great deal of political and economic instability, but it also opened up the debate on which way the European project was heading. Although Tsipras pressed home his domestic popularity by winning a referendum which said no to further austerity, the realities of the grim economic situation and hard line taken by European partners of Greece led to a dramatic U-turn by the Greek Prime Minister. Alexis Tsipras acceptance of the harsh terms set out in the third austerity programme has now split the SYRIZA party. The left faction of the party led by the former Energy Minister Panagiotis Lafazanis and the former Parliamentary Speaker Zoe Konstantopoulou both former close associates of Alexis Tsipras have become the Greek Prime Ministers most outspoken critics. The Greek political system has always been known for its fractious character. With the anger and opposition from the radical elements to the new austerity agreement being so strong, the possibility of the left faction splintering away from the core of SYRIZA is now very high. The strength of internal opposition within his own SYRIZA party and the size political U-Turn which in Greek is called a kolotoumba performed by Mr.Tsipras meant that his resignation and the request of a fresh mandate from the Greek public was always on the cards and as such is not a great surprise. The Greek Prime Minister has a moral obligation to ask the Greek people to back him and the EUR 86 billion three-year bailout agreement. The calling of the snap election is a risk, but the popularity of Tsipras is high. If you add to this the relief of the Greek public to the acceptance of the austerity programme the possibility of Alexis Tsipras once again leading the rump of what remains of SYRIZA to a second election victory is strong. The timing of this election could not be better. Tsipras having transformed himself from an activist of the left to a new-born liberal of the political establishment also has support from other European Governments and European and international institutions. In reality only Alexis Tsipras as the leader of a new Greek Government that is untouched by the political scandals, corruption and mismanagement that blighted the establishment regimes of PASOK and New Democracy can sell to the Greek people a rescue plan that is heavy on spending cuts and tax rises. Does Mr. Tsipras agree to the plan? Well, that is another question but what choice did he have other than the unthinkable of exiting the Eurozone. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/21082015EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1346 Target 2: 1.1134 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106 Daily control level: 1.1100 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/21082015GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5790 Target 2: 1.5586 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102 Daily control level: 1.5600 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/21082015USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 124.09 Target 2: 122.67 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.71 Daily control level: 124.00 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/21082015USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9672 Target 2: 0.9494 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089 Daily control level: 0.9650 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/21082015USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3216 Target 2: 1.2956 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0130 Daily control level: 1.3050 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/21082015AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7422 Target 2: 0.7246 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088 Daily control level: 0.7400 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/21082015GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1149.19 Target 2: 1117.97 Projected range in ATR’s: 15.61 Daily control level: 1108.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/21082015CLU5H1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 42.48 Target 2: 39.52 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.48 Daily control level: 42.50 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted August 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 26.08.2015 The People’s Bank of China cut interest rate and also has lowered the reserve requirements for the banking sector yesterday, hoping to support the struggling economy. The one-year benchmark interest rate was cut by 25 basis points, with the current rate now of 4.6 percent. At the same time the reserves were allowed to be reduced by 50 basis points to 18 percent. The action followed one more day stock plunging on Tuesday, seeing the investors desperate in expectations of new supportive measures by the Chinese government. The major Chinese indices declined to more than 8 percent on Monday, with the following day’s decline accounted to approximate 7 percentage points. The attempt to support plunging market was the next step after the investments of hundreds of billions dollars by the Chinese government to support the equities, failed to bring any sustainable result. The China’s turmoil, the world’s second-largest economy and one of the main global engines, has sent a shockwave around the world, causing all the major indexes to decline sharply on Monday, which consequently was called “Black Monday”, as the amount of losses counted in billions of dollars. Despite all the efforts to prop-up the Chinese stock market, the decline continues, with Shanghai Composite declining by another 1.3 percent by yesterday’s close. The index is now trading at 2927 level, its lowest since December 2014. FTSE100, the main British benchmark index continued the decline, despite the brief retracement last afternoon. It is currently trading below 6000 mark, losing 1.8 percent of the value. The German DAX is following the trend with 1.9 percent loss up to now, trading at 9.955 this morning. French CAC 40 faced similar faith, declining 2.05 percent up to now. The US Dollar Index has retraced to trade above 94.00 mark, after it reached 92.52 low on Monday. In the meantime, EURUSD has reconfirmed the reversal to the upward trend, currently trading around 1.1500 level. High volatility seems very likely to hold in the coming days. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2608EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.1748 Target 2: 1.1486 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131 Daily control level: 0.0980 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2608GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5880 Target 2: 1.5670 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105 Daily control level: 1.5615 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2608USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 119.62 Target 2: 117.18 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.2151 Daily control level: 124.60 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2608USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 0.9407 Target 2: 0.9193 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107 Daily control level: 0.9670 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2608USDCADH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.3416 Target 2: 1.3156 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0130 Daily control level: 1.2960 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2608AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7256 Target 2: 0.7056 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100 Daily control level: 0.7360 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2608GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1172.02 Target 2: 1138.68 Projected range in ATR’s: 16.67 Daily control level: 1112.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2608BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 44.73 Target 2: 41.55 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5940 Daily control level: 49.30 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted August 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 27.08.2015 The Dow Jones Industrial Average index surged higher last afternoon, closing the day with the biggest single day gains since 2011. The indicator was trading 627 points higher and after incurring substantial volatility during the day closed 619 points up, which amounts to 3.96 percent of the index increase. S&P 500 at the same time rose to 3.90 percent, lifting by 72.90 points to 1.940,51 level. William Dudley, the President of the NY Federal Reserve has hinted in the yesterday’s speech at the press conference about the local and regional economy that the interest rate hike is still on the agenda, though with probabilities of the event occurring later than in September, as was previously projected by investors based on the Janet Yellen earlier communications. The influential speaker has also reassured the auditory that the recent turmoil in China will not affect the US economy significantly. “The decision to begin the normalization process at the September FOMC meeting seems less compelling to me than it was a few weeks ago,” he said. “The stock market has to move a lot – and stay there – to have implications for the US economy. What we’re seeing is not a US problem. This is very different from the financial crisis.” The indications of the hike delay, meaning that the credit costs will remain at the low levels for some time have calmed down the investors. The action is expected to affect positively the global markets, as the prospect of the investments outflow now seems to be reduced. Nevertheless, Chinese markets continued on the way down, with even the Tuesday’s interest rate cut and further injection of 140 billion yuan by the government on Wednesday were incapable to support the situation. The Shanghai Composite closed down 1.3% yesterday, the fifth consecutive session towards the south. The People’s Bank of China decided to cut interest rate for the fifth time in nine month so to induce banks for more funds availability to the public, as Chinese economic growth and manufacturing output are slowing down. The current official figures show the growth rate at 7 percent, whereas many analysts agree that the real figure will be closer to 5 percent. European markets were tumbling as well, with the British FTSE 100 closing the day 102 points lower and 15 percent down from its record high. Germany’s DAX and Spain’s IBEX both lost 1.3 percent, while the French CAC dropped 1.4 percent. The US Dollar index has opened this morning higher, trading up for the third consecutive day. The index is currently fluctuating around 95.35 level, rebounding from the Monday’s low of 92.52. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2708EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1464 Target 2: 1.11164 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0141 Daily control level: 0.0980 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2708GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5571 Target 2: 1.5345 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113 Daily control level: 1.5615 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2708USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 121.17 Target 2: 118.57 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.3040 Daily control level: 116.80 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2708USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9680 Target 2: 0.9410 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0135 Daily control level: 0.9780 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2708USDCADH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3428 Target 2: 1.3154 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0130 Daily control level: 0.0137 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2708AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7221 Target 2: 0.7021 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100 Daily control level: 0.7360 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2708GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1143.58 Target 2: 1107.58 Projected range in ATR’s: 18.00 Daily control level: 1112.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2708BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 45.80 Target 2: 42.50 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.6471 Daily control level: 49.30 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted August 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.08.2015 Asian shares prolonged their upturn as the Chinese and US markets were recovering for the second consecutive day. Chinese benchmark Shanghai Composite index surged 5.3 percent higher by the yesterday’s close, after crushing by 23 percent over the last five sessions. The revival came after it was announced that the People’s Bank of China purchased additional stock becoming a buyer of last resort, due to the absence of the real demand. Moreover, it gave an order to the state-owned banks to purchase more of the national currency. These actions followed the reduction of the interest rate earlier this week for the fifth time in nine months. Among the measures, which raised the market sentiment was the announcement that Chinese pension funds will invest as much as 313 billion US dollars in the country’s stock market. Analysts expect some more government intervention today, therefore propping up the weakened stock market further. Positive news from China have affected well the global markets, diminishing the fears that the slowing Chinese economy would weight on the rest of the world which up to now wiped out more than 2 trillion US Dollars in market capitalization. Wednesday comments by William Dudley, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York President, which hinted that the rate hike will be postponed from the earlier expected month of September, added more of a reassurance to investors. The US preliminary GDP numbers beat the economists the expectations coming to 3.7 percent yesterday, have increased the desirability of the major world’s reserve currency, helping the dollar index gaining value for the third successive day in a row, which was trading above 96.00 level during the previous trading session. Have all the above actions supported the real market upraise and will serve as a genuine revival or just as a mere dead cat bounce, should become clear within a short period of time. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2808EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1398 Target 2: 1.1090 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0141 Daily control level: 0.0980 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2808GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5515 Target 2: 1.5291 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112 Daily control level: 1.5615 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2808USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 122.37 Target 2: 119.66 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.3588 Daily control level: 116.80 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2808USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9783 Target 2: 0.9537 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0123 Daily control level: 0.9780 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2808USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3326 Target 2: 1.3068 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0129 Daily control level: 0.0137 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2808AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7265 Target 2: 0.7063 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101 Daily control level: 0.7360 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2808GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1142.98 Target 2: 1107.80 Projected range in ATR’s: 17.59 Daily control level: 1112.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2808BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 49.61 Target 2: 45.99 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.8129 Daily control level: 49.30 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted August 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 31.08.2015 The European equities have opened lower this morning following their Asian counterparts, as worries over Chinese government support abandonment invoked the selling mood in investors. The UK markets will remain closed due to the British bank holiday today. Following the Chinese government decision to call off the further support to the country stock markets, the Shanghai Composite Index declined nearly 3 percent on Monday, following last week revival. German DAX 30 opened 0.8 percent lower at 10,202.00 this morning, continuing the daily downward trend the Index of the largest EU economy has formed in the middle of this July. The EU Stoxx 50 had a similar fate, opening at 3,261.50, decreasing approximately 0.70 percent. The German Retail Sales numbers came out on the positive note today, increasing to 1.4 percent from -1.0 percent last month. This helped the common European currency rebound higher against the US Dollar, following four consecutive days of the decline last week. The US dollar index itself was trading lower, bouncing off the 96.20 resistance level. The index is fluctuating within 93.00- 98.00 borders since the beginning of last April, with the signs of lost upward momentum. Gold remained trading at the Friday’s close level, after it broke the upward trend support line at the end of the previous week. It seems the precious metal is expecting some additional data from the global markets in order to decide on the move further. Looking at the forthcoming releases, at 10.00 am London time the EuroStat will publish the Eurozone’s August Consumer Price Index inflation estimates. The numbers are projected to stay without change, with the CPI Flash Estimate index being at 0.2 percent and the Core CPI Flash Estimate at 1.0 percent. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/3108EURUSDH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1325 Target 2: 1.1011 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0157 Daily control level: 0.1020 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/3108GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5528 Target 2: 1.5298 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115 Daily control level: 1.5815 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/3108USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 123.04 Target 2: 120.24 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4031 Daily control level: 124.60 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/3108USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.97401 Target 2: 0.9500 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120 Daily control level: 0.9780 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/3108USDCADH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3335 Target 2: 1.3081 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127 Daily control level: 0.0137 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/3108AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7246 Target 2: 0.7054 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096 Daily control level: 0.7360 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/3108GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1150.70 Target 2: 1115.30 Projected range in ATR’s: 17.70 Daily control level: 1112.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/3108BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 51.87 Target 2: 48.11 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.8800 Daily control level: 51.10 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted September 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.09.2015 After the recent Chinese turmoil, many economists have shifted their outlook regarding the US interest rate hike closer to the end of the year, rather than the earlier expected month of September. At the moment, the September rate hike has declined to below 50 percent according to a survey, conducted by Bloomberg recently, which is now down from 77 percent last month. “Forty-eight percent of 54 economists surveyed Aug. 27-31 by Bloomberg News see a September increase in the benchmark lending rate, the first move up since 2006. That’s down from 77 percent in an Aug. 7-12 survey, though it is still double the 24 percent who say the first move will occur in December. Seventeen percent said October” – Bloomberg news agency reports. The latest speech by the FOMC member and the Fed’s vice chairman Stanley Fischer at the 2015 Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole last Saturday gave no indications regarding the timing of the next rate increase. By and large, it seems to be a tough call for the Federal Reserve to make such a decision. The Federal Reserve has last raised the interest rates nine years ago, with the increase by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent. However, following housing market collapse and the consequent sliding into recession have soon reversed these actions, with the Fed benchmark interest rate set between 0.0 percent and 0.25 percent by December 2008. As the Federal Reserve monetary policy’s main function is to strive for the maximum employment and stable prices, in 2011 the central bank determined that 2 percent target inflation rate would be the best to achieve such results and keep the economic growth at a healthy pace. A reduction of the interest rate is commonly promoting more consumer spending, increasing inflation and economic revival. This time, however, since the interest rate was already at zero and still deemed ineffective, further actions such a Quantitative easing programmes were taken. At the moment, all these measures have been completed and the US economy showing an improvement, with the jobs market being almost at the prerecession at 5.3 percent unemployment rate. Hence, the Fed have started to consider the interest rates tightening, with such expectations sending the US currency up since the May of 2014. However sharp interest rate hike could cause the damages to not yet fully healed US economy, therefore such steps are still causing a contemplation among the US policy makers. In addition, the only expectations of such actions have already disrupted the global markets and put pressure on the emerging economies. Surely enough the next rate increase should not exceed 25 basis points. Regarding the timing, some further lights will be given at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on 17 of September. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0109EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1362 Target 2: 1.1058 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0152 Daily control level: 0.1020 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0109GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5460 Target 2: 1.5226 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117 Daily control level: 1.5815 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0109USDJPYH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 122.54 Target 2: 119.70 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4158 Daily control level: 124.60 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0109USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9786 Target 2: 0.9554 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131 Daily control level: 0.9780 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0109USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.3270 Target 2: 1.3008 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131 Daily control level: 1.3055 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0109AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7204 Target 2: 0.7018 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093 Daily control level: 0.7360 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0109GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1150.47 Target 2: 1118.19 Projected range in ATR’s: 16.14 Daily control level: 1112.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0109BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 55.42 Target 2: 50.90 Projected range in ATR’s: 2.257 Daily control level: 42.55 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted September 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 02.09.2015 September did not begin well for the global stock markets, attesting that the last week’s revival was probably just a mere dead cat bounce. Rising worries about the China’s slowing economy is prompting the sell-off of the international equities. Numerous interventions by the Chinese government to stabilize the markets brought little result when the Chinese equities were collapsing from June’s high over the last two months. Furthermore, weak manufacturing reports from China, Europe and the United States invoked additional concerns about the prospects of the global growth. European stocks followed the Asian ones down this morning, with no end to market volatility. The UK’s FTSE 100 opened 2.5 percent lower, after its worst month in the last four years. Earlier, Shanghai Composite index closed down a modest 1.2 percent, while Japan Nikkei slumped 3.8 percent, while the rest of the Asian equities were down to more than 2 percent. There are still chances that the US Federal Reserve may still go ahead with the rate hike though probabilities of such an action significantly lower after last month markets turbulence. Such prospects increase investors’ insecurity, causing them to look for the stability elsewhere after withdrawing their investments from the emerging markets. In addition, the likelihood of the rising borrowing costs in the US adds to the liquidity outflow from the more fragile economies. Returning to the two most significant world’s commodities, we see the following picture. Oil price fell to more than 3 percent yesterday, with the Brent crude being down to more than four dollars since last Monday highs and now trades at the below 50 mark, compared to the last summer’s high of above 115 US dollars per barrel. The previous three-day revival of the commodity followed the news that OPEC expressed its willingness to discuss the mutually beneficial oil price level with the non-member oil producing countries. Nonetheless, the barriers for consensus between the counterparts still remain high. The only significant frontrunner was Gold, with the investors seeking “the safe heaven” during the times of uncertainty. The precious metal was on the way up again, after 3.5 percent rise in August. The analysts see the uncertainty likely to continue in the near future. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0209EURUSDH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1464 Target 2: 1.1164 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150 Daily control level: 0.1020 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0209GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5420 Target 2: 1.5186 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117 Daily control level: 1.5815 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0209USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 120.84 Target 2: 117.86 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4896 Daily control level: 124.60 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0209USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9703 Target 2: 0.9467 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118 Daily control level: 0.9780 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0209USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Range Target 1: 1.3383 Target 2: 1.3129 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127 Daily control level: 1.3055 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0209AUDUSDH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7109 Target 2: 0.6919 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095 Daily control level: 0.7360 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0209GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1155.59 Target 2: 1123.69 Projected range in ATR’s: 15.95 Daily control level: 1112.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/0209BRENTH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 55.49 Target 2: 46.55 Projected range in ATR’s: 2.469 Daily control level: 42.55 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted September 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.09.2015 Unless you have been on vacation for the whole of August you might have noticed that the foreign exchange markets have been very volatile during the prior month. During the summer months, we are supposed to see the markets trade within small ranges. However, this has not been the case with typical Average True Range levels (ATR) ranging from the 140’s for EURUSD down to a still very large 90’s for AUDUSD. Although August has come and gone, the fallout from China still continues to rile the markets. With the summer coming to a close, the action on the Forex markets during the coming autumn and winter months should continue to entertain some and give others frayed nerves. Having only arrived back from my own mini-family break yesterday I have had a busy couple of days trying to catch up and make sense of what has gone on before. What comes to mind is a market that offers a lot of upside opportunity and downside risk. Understanding and being aware of the up and coming event risks is of paramount importance and although we are now nearing the close of the first week in September, event-driven market volatility could see Thursday and Friday experience some extreme price action. The big event of today is, of course, the European Central Bank’s press conference which takes place at 1:30 pm (London). These events are always keenly anticipated however this press conference is taking place after the tumultuous events that can only be described as the real China syndrome. We have already have had a taste of what could be in store for us with the ECB Executive Board Member Mr. Peter Praet stating that Central Banks inflation targeting will take into account any slowdown in China and the drop-off in the price of Oil. Mario Draghi the ECB boss will no doubt touch on these issues during today’s press conference, however, there is the added worry of what to do about the Euro. Confidence in the single currency has returned with traders bidding up EURUSD during the late spring and summer months. Only last week from a technical perspective EURUSD printed a weekly higher high. If this bullishness for the Euro continues the ECB will become increasingly concerned that a strong single currency will play havoc to its inflation targeting. I always find the subject of inflation targeting a little confusing. Is low inflation or deflation such a big issue when businesses and the citizens of the European Union can purchase products, services and commodities for less? I am sure Mr. Draghi will enlighten us with more pearls of wisdom this afternoon. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/03092015EURUSD.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1373 Target 2: 1.1079 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0147 Daily control level: 1.1320 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/03092015GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5414 Target 2: 1.5182 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116 Daily control level: 1.5330 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/03092015USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 121.80 Target 2: 118.83 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.48 Daily control level: 121.40 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/03095015USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9802 Target 2: 0.9566 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118 Daily control level: 0.9560 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/03092015USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3396 Target 2: 1.3140 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128 Daily control level: 1.3250 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/03092015AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7134 Target 2: 0.6940 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097 Daily control level: 0.7060 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/03092015GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1149.15 Target 2: 1117.71 Projected range in ATR’s: 15.72 Daily control level: 1142.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/03092015OILUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 48.95 Target 2: 43.87 Projected range in ATR’s: 2.54 Daily control level: 43.50 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted September 4, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.09.2015 Yesterday’s ECB press conference did not hold many surprises however the markets took their cue from the Central Bank chief as the Euro promptly sold off. As expected the outlook for both inflation and Euro Area growth dominated Thursday’s event with Mr Draghi saying that the ECB had cut its forecasts for both. The ECB chief said that he expected inflation to remain extremely low for a considerable time. It would appear that the issue of extremely low inflation in the Euro Area has now become a chronic problem. On economic activity, Mario Draghi said that Euro Area growth will rise at a slower pace than had been earlier predicted. Due to the continuing concerns over both inflation and growth Mario Draghi hinted that the ECB would be ready to add to an already large programme of stimulus. The ECB yesterday kept interest rates on hold at 0.05% which was expected. In terms of other numbers, the ECB has revised its forecast for growth to 1.4% instead of 1.5% for 2015 and 1.7% instead of 1.9% for 2016. The global outlook was also mentioned with Mr Draghi pointing to the problems facing the emerging markets and China during the month of August. According to ECB chief, these global issues had increased the risks and could impact Eurozone growth. Draghi and his colleagues have now put out the message that they are ready to expand the Euro Areas Quantitative Easing programme by either spending more on a monthly basis, putting back the end of the QE programme to after September 2016, increasing the scope of the assets that can be purchased or a combination of all of the above. I taking such a dovish stance the Euro should ultimately weaken value against the Green Back. The days of EURUSD trading above the 1.1000 level could potentially end soon. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/04092015EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1275 Target 2: 1.0969 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0153 Daily control level: 1.1240 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/04092015GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5370 Target 2: 1.5140 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115 Daily control level: 1.5330 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/04092015USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 121.64 Target 2: 118.48 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.58 Daily control level: 120.70 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/04092015USDCHFH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9854 Target 2: 0.9610 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122 Daily control level: 0.9695 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/04092015USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.3315 Target 2: 1.3045 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0135 Daily control level: 1.3325 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/04092015AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7113 Target 2: 0.6917 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098 Daily control level: 0.7060 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/04092015GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1141.01 Target 2: 1109.01 Projected range in ATR’s: 16.00 Daily control level: 1142.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/04092015OILUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 49.68 Target 2: 44.29 Projected range in ATR’s: 2.70 Daily control level: 43.50 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted September 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 7, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.09.2015 The finance minister of Saudi Arabia has said that the Government will delay certain state projects. This move has been taken with the aim to cut in State spending. However, Finance Minister Ibrahim al-Assaf said that Saudi Arabian finances are in good health and that the low price of oil was not a problem and can be managed. The oil-rich Gulf State is the biggest exporter of crude has increased production in a bid to maintain its market share in the face of increased but more expensive shale production that originates from the United States. The increase in production has driven down the price of Oil from around US$112.00 per barrel in August 2013 to just under US$46.00 per barrel at the start of this week. Mr. al-Assaf tried to reinforce the Saud position by telling CNBC Arabia in an interview that “We have built reserves, cut public debt to near-zero levels and we are now working on cutting unnecessary expenses while focusing on main development projects and on building human resources in the kingdom,” The Saudi Arabian government had built up some US$ 600 billion in reserves which were accumulated during the good times when the oil price was much higher. However according to the International Monetary Fund Saudi Arabia needs to sell oil at US$ 106.00 to balance is budget during the period 2015. Although the substantial cash pile that Saudi Arabia has accumulated will enable it to continue to fund a large public sector workforce and crucial infrastructure projects there will be a growing concern within the Government that such high levels of production will lead to a squandering of this valuable cash asset. Saudi Arabia without question is the giant within the globes crude producers but can it really carry on and fight the US shale sector without damaging its own economy in the long run. Furthermore, the United States shale community will and has responded to the prevailing market conditions. Due to the historically low crude prices the US shale industry has found ways to become leaner and more efficient. This process will continue and this, in the long run, will eventually force the Saudi government to reassess its current policy. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/07092015EURUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1318 Target 2: 1.1004 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0157 Daily control level: 1.1200 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/07092015GBPUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5286 Target 2: 1.5060 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113 Daily control level: 1.5250 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/07092015USDJPYH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 120.54 Target 2: 117.24 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.65 Daily control level: 120.70 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/07092015USDCHFH11.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9866 Target 2: 0.9616 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0125 Daily control level: 0.9695 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/07092015USDCADH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.3392 Target 2: 1.3118 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0137 Daily control level: 1.3325 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/07092015AUDUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7025 Target 2: 0.6825 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100 Daily control level: 0.7000 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/07092015GOLDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1139.98 Target 2: 1106.81 Projected range in ATR’s: 16.59 Daily control level: 1127.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/07092015OILUSDH1.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 48.76 Target 2: 43.40 Projected range in ATR’s: 2.68 Daily control level: 43.50 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted September 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.09.2015 Yesterday Eurostat which is responsible for European Economic statistics published revised data on growth numbers. The new data for the 19 Eurozone members has now been revised upwards. The new revisions indicate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the period of April to June as been increased to 0.4%. The previous first estimate being 0.3%. There was more good news for European finance ministers and the ECB when Eurostat announced that first quarter GDP had been revised upwards from 0.4% to 0.5%. The growth news update coincided with a Destatis publishing German Trade Balance data. This new data would seem to indicate that the expansion in the German economy was continuing. This can be confirmed by Destatis announcing that both imports and exports have risen to new record levels. Although there was an expansion in both imports and exports, the trade surplus increased due to EUR 25 billion. This is due to exports increasing at a much faster pace than imports. Back to the European growth data story, there is one caveat in that Irish data was added as part of the revision for the first quarter of 2015. As Ireland is at the present time the fastest growing member of the Euro Area with a dizzy rate of expansion of 1.4% the jump higher in the revised data is to be expected. However, the growth picture is a lot rosier than what we have become accustomed to. As such the healthier economic outlook could for the time being delay any European Central Bank decision to expand the already large quantitative easing programme. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH109092015L.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1350 Target 2: 1.1050 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150 Daily control level: 1.1120 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH109092015L.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5510 Target 2: 1.5275 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118 Daily control level: 1.5150 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH109092015L.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 121.45 Target 2: 118.10 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.69 Daily control level: 118.60 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH109092015L.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9910 Target 2: 0.9665 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0123 Daily control level: 0.9695 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH109092015L.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.3335 Target 2: 1.3075 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131 Daily control level: 1.3325 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH10909215L.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7115 Target 2: 0.6910 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102 Daily control level: 0.6920 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH109092015L.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1136.00 Target 2: 1106.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 14.73 Daily control level: 1127.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH109092015L.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 48.00 Target 2: 43.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 2.70 Daily control level: 43.50 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted September 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 11, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.09.2015 As expected the Bank of England kept the UK’s Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.5%. The vote to keep the benchmark rate unchanged although not unanimous obtained a large majority with only one of the 9 committee members wanting to see an increase. The lone dissenter was once again Monetary Policy Committee Ian McCafferty. Mr. Mcafferty voted for an increase the last time the MPC debated the merits of hiking interest rates. As such Mr. Mcafferty has maintained his hawkish stance by citing that there is now a growing inflation risk and that increasing costs could lead to the CPI could overshooting its 2% target. However, the most 0.25% increase that Mr. Mcafferty wanted was not forthcoming. The doves on the Monetary Policy Committee can point to the majority view being supported by recent comments made both the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) that increasing UK interest rates now would be premature and risky. That the MPC took the safe wait and see approach for now is understandable. Furthermore with the FOMC over in the United States has yet to decide on increasing its own benchmark interest rate the Bank of England will almost certainly wait for their American colleagues to act first in normalizing their own interest rate environment. There were a couple of key points that could be taken from yesterday’s announcement. Firstly the move to lower third quarter GDP from 0.7% to 0.6% would seem to indicate that the Bank of England and its Governor Mr. Mark Carney will have concerns that to increase rates now will only weaken the GDP picture. This is in line with the World Bank and IMF’s concerns. The other key point was that of international cross-border contagion and more specifically the recent and dramatic Chinese economic meltdown and worries for the Emerging Markets have added risks to the UK economy, however, according to their MPC, the Bank of England August outlook has not been sufficiently altered by these events. The MPC view would seem to have noted the global economic turmoil and will act and adjust their policy as and when it is required. The key risk event for the Emerging Markets and China would appear to be the economic fallout post a US interest rate hike. With the September FOMC meeting fast approaching the MPC will soon have additional hard data to analyze. The inflation outlook continues to concern the Bank of England with the 2% inflation target remaining a fair distance away. Current CPI levels at present are flat lining close to zero and with commodity and oil price risk continuing to add downside pressure to prices. However, the Bank of England has an expectation that inflation will rise to around 1% in the first part of 2016. Taking what we can from yesterday’s announcement it would appear that the MPC will definitely increase interest rates in the future but are not in any hurry to make their move this year. What we really need to see is a lift off in the United States with interest rates being increased there first and enough data in Q4 that supports a UK interest rate nominalization early in 2016. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH111092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1405 Target 2: 1.1155 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0126 Daily control level: 1.1170 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH111092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5560 Target 2: 1.5330 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0114 Daily control level: 1.5350 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH111092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 121.95 Target 2: 119.30 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.32 Daily control level: 120.00 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH111092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9840 Target 2: 0.9620 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110 Daily control level: 0.9695 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH111092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.3375 Target 2: 1.3125 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127 Daily control level: 1.3310 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH111092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7105 Target 2: 0.6925 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091 Daily control level: 0.6945 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH111092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1121.15 Target 2: 1090.55 Projected range in ATR’s: 15.11 Daily control level: 1127.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH111092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 48.80 Target 2: 43.30 Projected range in ATR’s: 2.74 Daily control level: 46.75 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted September 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.09.2015 This week sees the Federal Reserve announce it’s much-anticipated interest rate decision which takes place this coming Thursday. However, long before this key event taking place the week has already started with Chinese National Bureau of Statistics releasing its Monthly, year on year Industrial Production number. Although the overnight announcement of 6.1% did manage to print higher than the prior month the trend since the 2010 high continues to be solidly down with this release also missing the 6.4% forecast. Back to today and Monday has little in the way if data events other than Eurostat releasing its monthly Eurozone monthly Industrial Production number. Thus release is due to take place at 10:00 am London. It is expected that the prior months negative reading of -0.4% will be eclipsed by a forecast of 0.3%. Traders and investors of the Swiss France however may find that they have a busy morning with both monthly Producer Price Index and year on year Retail Sales number being released this morning at 8:15 am London time. As a precursor of what is to come later in the week, on Tuesday we have more Central Banks coming into view. The Reserve Bank of Australia early on Tuesday morning will release its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. The Bank of Japan not to be left out on Tuesday will also release its Monetary Policy Statement. This announcement will coincide with a press conference. Tuesday is actually a very busy day in terms of data with UK CPI being released, together with the important German ZEW Economic Sentiment indicator. Across the Atlantic and with an eye on what will happen this Thursday we get a glimpse of the how the US consumer is feeling with the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales numbers being announced. Wednesday we have important jobs numbers from the UK with a splurge of data being released at 9:30 am London time. Simultaneously data will be announced for the UK, Average Earnings, Claimant Count Change and the Unemployment Rate. The Loonie also comes into focus on Wednesday with Statistics Canada announcing its monthly, Manufacturing Sales number. A day before the FOMC decision we also have important inflation data from the US with monthly CPI and Core CPI data. Can this release so close to the Federal Reserve announcement have any bearing on Thursday’s decision? This Thursday is, of course, the big day which Traders and Investors have been waiting for. Setting the tone for Thursday we have the Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda due to speak. This is followed by the Swiss National Bank announcing its latest LIBOR decision and Monetary Policy Assessment. Staying in Europe the UK’s Office for National Statistics will publish Retail Sales Data. With the Bank of England Governor and other committee members waiting for the FOMC to move first, a good number will increase the pressure and make an interest rate increase in early 2016 all the more likely. Leading up to the FOMC decision we have the US building Permits and Unemployment Claims numbers which are being announced at 1:30 pm London time. This is followed by the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 3:00 pm. Finally, we get to 7:00 pm London and the FOMC announcement for the Federal Funds rate. With many forecasting a hike by 25 basis points from 0.25% to 0.50% whatever is the outcome, it is due to cause lots of market volatility. Friday, it is very much a case of picking up the pieces of what happened the night before. We do have more action from the Central Banks with the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens speaking and more monetary policy minutes, this time from the Bank of Japan. The week is rounded off with Canadian Inflation data with both the CPI and Core CPI being announced. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH114092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1450 Target 2: 1.1210 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118 Daily control level: 1.1255 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH114092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5540 Target 2: 1.5320 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110 Daily control level: 1.5400 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH114092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 121.75 Target 2: 119.30 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.23 Daily control level: 120.80 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH114092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9795 Target 2: 0.9590 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104 Daily control level: 0.9800 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH114092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3370 Target 2: 1.3130 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119 Daily control level: 1.3175 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH114092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7170 Target 2: 0.6990 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089 Daily control level: 0.7035 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH114092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1121.00 Target 2: 1091.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 13.64 Daily control level: 1115.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH114092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 48.00 Target 2: 42.50 Projected range in ATR’s: 2.74 Daily control level: 46.40 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted September 15, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 15, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 15.09.2015 As we approach Thursday, many traders and investors will now be working through their minds and penning scenarios for this much anticipated Federal Funds Rate decision. Although a lot of trading is reactive in nature with knee-jerk decisions taken off the outcome of an economic news event the lead up to this Federal Reserve decision has given those who can, time to write their own battle plan. The idea behind this is that instead of being caught with brain freeze and acting as a spectator when the FOMC Chairwoman announces the committee’s decision but instead acting proactively and with a clear purpose. That is not to say that the trading of the Federal Reserve news can be easy if planned. Such major events come with them massive amounts of volatility, gaps in the market and thin price conditions which make it difficult to execute any type of trading plan. Managing the risk of trading the FOMC has always been a difficult undertaking however on this occasion where the uncertainty is at extreme levels the skill factor increases. If one understands these risks what are the possible scenarios to look out for. One and done If the FOMC was to increase interest rates by 25 basis points but indicate that no further movement for Federal Funds is planned. The possible scenario could result in the US Dollar to spiking higher and then promptly reversing. Federal Funds on hold for now If the FOMC as is expected by many does not increase in September but does not rule out action taken before the end of 2015. The possible scenario could result in a rapid drop in the value of the US Dollar which is followed by a bounce and a strong appreciation. No increase and no guidance Highly unlikely that the Federal Reserve does or says nothing but Janet Yellen could decide not to increase interest rates and give no indication with regards to future policy. This possible scenario could possibly result in an unchecked and multiple days declines in the value of the US Dollar. Hike and more This scenario would probably spook the market and, therefore, is not expected to happen. In this case, the FOMC increases rates and gives guidance that further increases are on the way in 2015. This possible scenario would send the US Dollar on a multiple day rally and US stocks lower. Of all the scenarios, I would expect that the FOMC chooses “Federal Funds on Hold for now” with a possibility that they take the “One and done” option. The other two scenarios will either spook the markets or cause uncertainty. As the FOMC wishes to promote stability in the markets I do not see them choosing the two latter options. However. There is always room for a surprise. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH115092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1455 Target 2: 1.1250 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103 Daily control level: 1.1280 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH115092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5520 Target 2: 1.5330 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096 Daily control level: 1.5470 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH115092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 121.40 Target 2: 119.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.19 Daily control level: 120.80 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH115092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9775 Target 2: 0.9585 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095 Daily control level: 0.9720 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH115092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3370 Target 2: 1.3130 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119 Daily control level: 1.3220 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH115092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7220 Target 2: 0.7045 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088 Daily control level: 0.7060 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH115092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1120.00 Target 2: 1096.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 11.92 Daily control level: 1103.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH115092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 47.00 Target 2: 42.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 2.73 Daily control level: 46.40 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted September 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.09.2015 With the United States on a course to end a six-year period were the benchmark Federal Funds interest rate is effectively at near zero levels, there is now a growing global concern that the FOMC’s action could have a potentially devastating effect on the Emerging Market nations. The Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the committee are expected by many to cap a period of growth and better data for the United States economy by increasing interest rates by 10 to 25 basis points. The FOMC has been spurred into action by an improvement in the employment picture with both the Non-Farm Payroll and Average Earnings data underscoring the strength in the US job market. However with inflation data out this afternoon the Federal Reserve may want to see the Consumer Price Index data shrug off the effects of chronically low energy prices. The World Bank in its aptly named report “The coming US interest Rate Tightening Cycle: Smooth sailing or stormy waters?” was released to be perfectly timed just before the FOMC is to deliberate and come to a decision. The World Bank report has voiced concerns that a move increase interest rates could cause major economic fallout for Emerging Market economies. However, the World Bank did go on to say in its report that due the very long lead up time to the US interest rate decision and due to the expected shallow slope any tightening cycle may take, that the Emerging Market economies could work through this new interest rate environment without major consequences. The World Bank did point to some dark clouds with concerns that Emerging Market nations who are excessively exposed to foreign denominated debt could suffer difficult times with falls in living standards and economic contraction during the period when the United States begins to normalize the low-interest rates environment. Will the FOMC take heed of the World Banks concerns? For sure the Federal Reserve will try to mitigate risks if an interest rate hike could cause economic fallout in the Emerging Markets and China. However, the FOMC has also got to look after its own house and if this means raising interest rates is necessary to correct possible future imbalances in the domestic economy then it will act. As for tomorrow, my feeling is that the FOMC can and will hold off for now but give further guidance which prepares the ground for a rate increase in December or early in 2016. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH116092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1365 Target 2: 1.1170 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097 Daily control level: 1.3000 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH116092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5440 Target 2: 1.5245 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096 Daily control level: 1.5450 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH116092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 121.55 Target 2: 119.25 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.14 Daily control level: 120.60 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH116092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9830 Target 2: 0.9650 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091 Daily control level: 0.9670 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH116092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3355 Target 2: 1.3140 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109 Daily control level: 1.3220 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH116092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7230 Target 2: 0.7055 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086 Daily control level: 0.7080 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH116092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1117.00 Target 2: 1093.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 11.57 Daily control level: 1103.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH116092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 48.50 Target 2: 43.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 2.54 Daily control level: 44.30 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted September 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.09.2015 We have finally made it to Thursday. As most of you should know, today the United States Federal Reserve will announce their long-awaited interest rate decision. Will they or won’t they pull the trigger and begin a path of Federal Funds Rate normalization. We have for best part of a decade lived through a period of extraordinarily low interest rates. In these times when global interest rates have been close to zero levels, this era of cheap money has boosted equity markets and fed ballooning Emerging Market economies who have gorged themselves on cheap US Dollar denominated credit. The prudent have during these artificial times of plenty have done what they can to get their houses in order with austerity being the rallying cry coming from the Westminster Parliament in London and from the corridors of the Bundestag in Berlin. There has been a great deal of wealth creation during this artificially low-interest rate environment. One only needs to look at the creation of wealth in the London housing market which has allowed modest property owners to amass a great deal of wealth without breaking a sweat while others had taken the opportunity to deleverage and pay back debt in anticipation of the end of the easy times. Summer never lasts forever. The decision makers in the Central Banks and Governments have had seven years since the events that sent Lehman’s into bankruptcy to reform the global financial system. The decision to embark on a massive Quantitative Easing program when the financial crisis began did offer some solutions, however, the Emerging Markets have now become a global economic headache and Greece is still a financial basket case. The FOMC, however, has to put to one side the problems in the Emerging Markets and act in the interest of the United States economy. The recent US jobs data has been good, however, yesterday inflation data was weak. Will the FOMC ignore the weak CPI numbers and pull the trigger now? I think not, however, the reason for this possible reticence to lift off is not due to the recent data but more to do with the Emerging Market story. The consensus amongst market watchers is that only some 25% believe that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates today. There is a greater probability that the FOMC will wait until October. The Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen could wait until December, but this will once again leave her a hostage to data with event cycles for October, November, and December having to be allowed for. The Fed, however, could confound the markets and raise rates this evening. If this was to happen it is very much a case of the message that is given to the markets. Will a rate rise be a “one and done” strategy or will the Fed signal that it is going to embark on a long cycle of interest rate increases. A more rational policy could be to increase rates and give a message of “wait and see”. If the FOMC does not increase rates this evening, then of course the Fed statement is of paramount importance. Will the FOMC give specific forward guidance on when a rate increase will happen in the future? I very much doubt that Janet Yellen would be so accommodating, however, a message from the Fed that it is ready to move should be enough for the market to absorb this news and work through the short-term volatility. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH117092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1385 Target 2: 1.1195 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094 Daily control level: 1.1210 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH117092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5590 Target 2: 1.5385 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103 Daily control level: 1.5325 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH117092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 121.65 Target 2: 119.45 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.11 Daily control level: 120.10 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH117092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9800 Target 2: 0.9620 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091 Daily control level: 0.9760 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH117092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.3275 Target 2: 1.3065 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106 Daily control level: 1.3250 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH117092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7255 Target 2: 0.0.7085 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085 Daily control level: 0.7080 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH117092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1131.00 Target 2: 1107.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 11.93 Daily control level: 1103.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH117092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 50.00 Target 2: 45.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 2.44 Daily control level: 44.30 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted September 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 18, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.09.2015 Last night the United States Federal Reserve announced that it would be keeping its benchmark Federal Funds target interest rate on hold at 0.25%. The decision not to move and increase rates at the September meeting was not a surprise, however, the dovishness of the ensuing press release and briefing was not expected. Only Jeffrey Lacker of the Reserve Bank of Richmond being the only member of the committee to urge for a rate increase now. However the FOMC chairwoman did try to downplay the strength of the dovish sentiment by saying that the majority view of the committee members was that a rate increase is on the table and could happen before the end of 2015. This brings me to a comment that Janet Yellen made which sums up the Federal Reserve’s thinking on the pending interest rate cycle when the chair of the FOMC chair told the assembled media that “at the end of the day, it’s all about the data”. The Federal Reserve has two main mandates. These being to look after employment and inflation. With the unemployment numbers continuing to move in the right direction and with better recent data for both average earnings and Non-Farm Payrolls, the jobs picture although not completely rosy is at least no longer a paramount concern. Furthermore with business confidence positive and the housing market now recovering the policy makers can now point to more positive signs for the United States economy. So with the US economy seemingly performing well and much better than its competitors in Europe and Asia it is easy to see why Jeffrey Lacker would want to increase interest rates now. The reason why the majority in the Federal Reserve decided to come down against pulling the trigger and increasing interest rates now was the continuing concerns over inflation. Only on Wednesday we had abysmal inflation data with the month on month CPI number posting a negative -0.1%. With inflation now a long way from its 2% target the FOMC now has to deal with recent events that have affected China and other Emerging Market economies. The FOMC now has concerns that the slowdown in China combined with a strong US Dollar will have the effect of importing lower prices into the domestic economy. The global economic uncertainty is also compounded by what is happening in Europe with the European Central Bank recently cutting its inflation target. The concerns in Frankfurt are so evident that the ECB president Mr. Mario Draghi will have real worries that deflation could take a grip of the Euro area. The great unknown is of course China. What will be the effect of this country’s economic slowdown and financial crisis have on the global economy? This is the first major economic crisis that China has experienced since this country moved to a more open and capitalistic economy. China has grown rapidly and overtaken the likes of Germany and Japan to become the second-largest global economy. Therefore what happens in China can no longer be ignored. The effects of globalization and the interconnectivity of global economies now make the task of the FOMC and its committee members all that much harder. The FOMC has now been transformed from being the central bank of the United States to the central banker to the world with Janet Yellen sitting on a very uncomfortable throne. Back to the press conference and what we can take from it is that the big news was that there was no news with Janet Yellen reiterating that the FOMC policy decision making is sensitive to data. The chairwoman also went on to say that if data improves that the FOMC will move and increase the Federal Funds target rate. Janet Yellen also went on to say that if the data does not improve that the FOMC will not move. The interpretation of this is that Janet Yellen and her colleagues at the FOMC are not sensitive to data but are actually hostages to data. Furthermore the decision to be indecisive has given the FOMC some leeway as this means FOMC is not tied to a calendar. It also means that the markets have to beware of a possibility of the FOMC deciding to move on rates in October or December if the picture improves. However, the reticence and dovishness of the FOMC would mean that we would need to see an awful lot of improvement in both the inflation and global economic picture for this to happen. A rate increase before December does not seem likely. So we now have another month of waiting. Just like a patient waiting for the nurse in fear of pulling off the plaster, the markets, especially in Asia and Brazil will be feeling some relief that the FOMC did not move. However, there is also a sense of urgency which is pushing the Federal Reserve to do the deed and go for an increase. To be sure, there is going to be lots more volatility and a wild ride for all global markets. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH118092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.1535 Target 2: 1.1335 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099 Daily control level: 1.1210 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH118092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.5695 Target 2: 1.5480 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106 Daily control level: 1.5485 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH11809215.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 121.50 Target 2: 118.85 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.16 Daily control level: 121.00 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH118092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9695 Target 2: 0.9505 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094 Daily control level: 0.9725 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH118092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.3280 Target 2: 1.3080 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101 Daily control level: 1.3205 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH118092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7260 Target 2: 0.7085 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090 Daily control level: 0.7140 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH118092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1143.00 Target 2: 1118.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 12.63 Daily control level: 1115.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH18092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 49.00 Target 2: 45.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 2.11 Daily control level: 46.70 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted September 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 21, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 21.09.2015 On Sunday, the Greek voting public once again elected the SYRIZA party, led by its charismatic leader Mr. Alexis Tsipras back into power. However with a record low turnout of some 50% the sense of voter fatigue and frustration is all too evident. It was only a few months ago that the Greek public was requested to vote in a referendum on the European Union designed austerity programme. Although Greeks backed Prime Minister Tsipras call to oppose Brussels this exercise of the democratic process was ignored. The decision to ignore the vote and sign off a very harsh austerity programme was taken by no other than Alexis Tsipras. That Alexis Tsipras was able to galvanize enough support for his SYRIZA party to be re-elected back into power after it had mishandled the negotiations with the European Union is a testimony to the lack of respect the Greek public have for the traditional and establishment back PASOK and New Democracy political parties. The support for SYRIZA was not overwhelming as it is doubtful that it will win enough seats to gain an absolute Parliamentary majority. It is expected that SYRIZA will take 145 of 300 seats in the Greek Parliament. However, the nationalist Independent Greeks that are led by Panos Kammenos has pledged to support SYRIZA with some 10 seats. The combined SYRIZA / Independent Greek coalition will, therefore, have 305 seats which is sufficient for the formation of a majority Government. With a second election victory in as little as 9 months under his belt, Alexis Tsipras can now push ahead with reforming the Greek economy. Alexis Tsipras has gone from a staunch adversary to Brussels inspired austerity to being it’s unlikely and some may say unwilling champion of austerity. This election result was a victory for stability with Greek voters realizing that although their cause to be just and their personal pain real that there was no alternative. It was either reform within the European Area or leave the Euro. This was a price most Greeks were unwilling to pay. Alexis Tsipras armed with a new mandate can now tackled structural issues that were created during decades of mismanagement under previous New Democracy and PASOK administrations. The hope of many is that Alexis Tsipras can sweep away the corrupt practices of the past and take Greece into a new era of economic growth and correct governance. The tasks are many, but Tsipras has time on his side. The implementation of reforms to the state sector and pensions is urgent. Furthermore, there is a need for long-delayed privatization programme to move ahead. I hope and wish that Alexis Tsipras is both bold and lucky over the next few years. However, most of all I hope that Alexis Tsipras embraces the moment and takes this once in a lifetime opportunity to reform Greece for the good of all its citizens. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH121092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1385 Target 2: 1.1180 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104 Daily control level: 1.1460 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH121092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5630 Target 2: 1.5415 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109 Daily control level: 1.5660 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH121092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 121.20 Target 2: 119.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.09 Daily control level: 119.70 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH121092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.9750 Target 2: 0.9550 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099 Daily control level: 0.9725 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH121092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3340 Target 2: 1.3125 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107 Daily control level: 1.3010 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH121092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.7270 Target 2: 0.7095 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088 Daily control level: 0.7140 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH121092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1151.00 Target 2: 1126.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 12.62 Daily control level: 1115.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH121092015.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 47.00 Target 2: 43.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 47.17 Daily control level: 47.50 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas CapitalFx Posted September 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2015 MORE ON ACFXblog.com MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 22.09.2015 Septembers Federal Reserve meeting and the press conference has passed with a whimper. An overly dovish Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee surprised the markets by the tone and wording of that accompanied their decision to keep interest rates at the <0.25% target. According the FOMC’s calendar, the schedule has two more meetings for that will happen this year. The first meeting takes place on October 27 – 28 and the second on December 15 -16. What should we expect from these meetings? In my previous post, I said that Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the FOMC are data sensitive. The two main current influences on the Federal Reserve decision-making process being the inflation outlook and the economic slowdown that is taking a hold off China and other Emerging Market nations. However, the FOMC chairwoman did say that a decision to increase rates was still on the table. As soon as the conditions merited that action was required. We have some five weeks of economic activity to be absorbed and deliberated before the next FOMC meeting takes place. Is it really possibly that a financial and economic slowdown that has persistently continued to worry global decision makers will abate over the next few weeks? Will we see by October 28, improvements in the inflation outlook and Emerging Markets that are sufficient to give the FOMC committee members enough confidence to pull the trigger and hike interest rates? It is doubtful that the data will change that much even by the December meeting. The markets are now stuck within a spiral of uncertainty as they become increasingly unsure of the Federal Reserve’s intentions. Last Friday the Bank of England’s Chief Economists argued the merits of even cutting UK interest rates. The British economy is seen as the one that closely resembled that of the United States. If influential voices within the Bank of England and are openly discussing the possibility of cutting UK interest rates, then the same discussion will also be taking place with the walls of the Federal Reserve building. The possibility of an October or December lift off seems very unlikely. A move by the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates at one of the next two meetings could still happen. However, following the dovish position the FOMC has taken, such a decision would be out of step with their most recent statements. EURUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDH12209.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.1295 Target 2: 1.1080 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108 Daily control level: 1.1330 GBPUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDH12209.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 1.5620 Target 2: 15400 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112 Daily control level: 1.5525 USDJPY http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYH12209.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 121.60 Target 2: 119.50 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06 Daily control level: 119.70 USDCHF http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFH12209.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 0.9800 Target 2: 0.9620 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097 Daily control level: 0.9640 USDCAD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADH12209.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1.3355 Target 2: 1.3150 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104 Daily control level: 1.3175 AUDUSD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDH12209.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 0.7150 Target 2: 0.7040 Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088 Daily control level: 0.7280 GOLD http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GOLDH12209.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Up Target 1: 1145.00 Target 2: 1120.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 12.54 Daily control level: 1129.00 OIL http://academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/OILUSDH12209.png The intraday technical outlook Trend 1 hour: Down Target 1: 47.00 Target 2: 43.00 Projected range in ATR’s: 1.88 Daily control level: 47.25 MORE ON ACFXblog.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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