Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: short-term bearish bias

 

The EUR/USD pair is trading sideways after recovering from a possible H&S top. This morning prices have risen within the range and re-touched the 50-day MA from where they will probably pull-back. The overall short-term trend remains bearish and a decisive break below the trend-line at 1.2995 would probably lead to a move down to 1.2890. To get bullish again I'd want to see a breach of the 1.3115 level although the 100-day MA at 1.3165 stands in the way of much upside after the break.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: temporary recovery possible

 

The USD/JPY has fallen to a minor trend-line and formed a hammer candlestick on the 4-hour chart, a Demark buy signal indicates a recovery rally is probable, to just below 100. The overall up-trend may be capped by the R3 monthly pivot at 100.78 which is unlikely to be breached during April. A move below the trend-line at 98.25 would signal a break and a probable move down to 97.65. If we reach the 95.79 lows then we may have a double top pattern. A break below the 95.79 neckline could then open up a move down to 92.50. This April rally could be an Elliot 5th wave of the whole move from September 2012, with the potential for a correction on the horizon.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: potential break higher

 

The EUR/USD pair has surged up this morning and a continuation higher is favoured. Surpassing the 1.3092 highs was a strong bullish sign as it reversed the progression of peaks and troughs. A decisive break above the down-sloping trend-line at 1.3105 would indicate potentially stronger follow-through to the upside, first to resistance at the 100-day at 1.3155 and then probably to 1.3285 eventually. There is a possibility the trend-line could hold and the down-trend resume, with prices moving from their current level down to the 1.2975 lows, although price action has not given any corroboratory evidence yet.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: touching upper channel-line

 

We have reached a potential short-term reversal point for the pair. It has risen up to the top of the rising channel and the monthly pivot both at the same 1.5525 level. Given the tough resistance overhead it will probably pull-back from here and make a retracement back down inside the channel to the lower channel line at around the 1.5330s. Whilst less likely, a break higher would probably rise up to resistance at the 1.5730 level, thereby fulfilling the upside target from the original trend-line break.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: rally continues

 

Today is a holiday in most of the world so volatility may be low. The EUR/USD pair continues to rise within a broader mid-term consolidation. It has reached support and resistance at the 1.3200 level at the top of the consolidation. It seems to have broken above the 100-day temporarily, and could go higher. The earlier break of trend indicates a possible continuation higher, with an eventual target at 1.3305, although a clear and decisive break above 1.3200 would give confirmation. As far as downside goes, I would want to see a move below the 100-day again and a break of the 1.3150 lows for confirmation, with a target at 1.3050.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/EURUSD01.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: trending higher

 

Cable is in a short-term up-trend which will probably continue as there are no signs yet of weakness. It has reached the 100-day MA and the weekly pivot so it could pause temporarily, at this level, however, it will probably eventually go higher eventually and reach a target at 1.5850 at the lower boundary line of the multi-month triangle. The monthly pivot at 1.5725 is likely to provide resistance and constitutes another nearer upside target. For a bearish reversal to take effect a breach of the 1.5460 lows would be required, although this seems unlikely given the current upside bias.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/GBPUSD01b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bearish signs, ECB on tap

 

Eurodollar has stalled in its up-trend and formed a bearish shooting-star candle on the daily chart. On the hourly chart there is a head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at 1.3145. If the pair breaks below the neckline it will probably move down towards the trend-line at 1.3085. Alternatively it is possible the up-trend could resume again, with a break above 1.3200 seeing the start of a recovery to the upside, although for more confirmation it would have to move above 1.3225, then targeting 1.3325. Today's ECB rate meeting could cause short-term volatility and dictate the future direction of the trend.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/EURUSD02.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: consolidating in a triangle

 

The USD/JPY pair has stopped falling and is currently consolidating in a triangle on the intra-day charts. It will probably eventually break down out of the triangle and continue lower. The only problem is the monthly pivot and support and resistance grouped at 96.66, which could resist further downside, however a decisive break below that level would probably lead to 95.80-90s reached near the neckline of the possible double top. A break of the neckline could then in turn lead to a further possible move lower into the territory of the 92s. Alternatively given the broader up-trend a break above 97.55 could give a potential upside target of 98.30.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/USDJPY02.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bounce underway

 

The EUR/USD pair has drifted higher overnight after falling to support at the 1.3050 level where a major trend-line is situated. It will now probably continue bouncing higher today, reaching back up to the 1.3160 resistance level. Alternatively, for a more bearish scenario to evolve, the pair would have to break down below the 1.3063 lows and the trend-line, targeting support from the 200-day MA at the 1.2955 level.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/EURUSD03.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: consolidating in an up-trend

 

Cable is consolidating in a range at the level of the 100-day MA and the weekly pivot. Overall the short-term up-trend remains intact, however, and will probably result in a break even higher eventually, with a decisive breakout above the range highs at 1.5605 leading to a probable move up to the monthly pivot situated at 1.5725. For a bearish reversal, I'd want to see a strong move below the 1.5495 range lows, leading down to a clustering of support at the 1.5360 level.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/GBPUSD03.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: Long-term P&F target

 

A long-term target at 1.4100 has been fixed on the 50 pip box point & figure chart as illustrated below. This is quite a reliable chart for trading longer-term based on results from the last 12 years. Now to activate the target and trigger a trading opportunity the exchange rate would have to move up to 1.3250 in the current column. This would also trigger a triple top continuation pattern, a further bullish sign. The stop would be placed at the 1.2700 level. The trend is up based on the 45 degree trend-line which remains intact despite recent price action which came back to find support and then bounced at the April lows.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: possible price pattern

 

Eurodollar has struggled to break up into new territory and formed a price pattern instead. This is probably a reversal pattern given its fulcrum-like shape and wave patterns which indicate it probably marks the top of the 4th wave of a bearish Elliot wave, from the 1st of February, with 5th wave about to start and end at around the 1.2740 lows. On the 4-hourly chart we have broken down through the trend-line at 1.3090 but has yet no follow-through. A break below 1.3035 where the monthly pivot lies, would give strong bearish confirmation and targeting 1.2965 initially. A less likely bullish scenario would develop after a clean move above the 1.3110 level back above the trend-line followed by a probable rally back up to range highs at 1.3215.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/EURUSD07.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GbP/USD: @ resistance

 

Cable is in an up-trend overall but it has reached a resistance level from where it might pull-back temporarily. It has retraced 50% of the move down which began in January and is currently touching the 100-day MA. It has reached its upper channel-line and formed a possible reversal pattern. Evidence is building that it might correct back to perhaps 1.5410 and the bottom of the channel, and a break below 1.5480 would act as confirmation. Alternatively if it breaks above the 1.5601 highs decisively a move up to the top of the channel again at 1.5650 is possible.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/GBPUSD07.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: forming a triangle

 

The EUR/USD pair is trading in a range and is starting to look like a triangle on the hourly chart. It has failed to decisively break down through the important trend-line drawn from the April lows. Today it has actually rebounded and moved up to the upper triangle border which it is currently pushing up against at 1.3125. A break above 1.3155 could lead to a move up to 1.3240. A breakdown below 1.3070 could see a move to 1.2970 and open the way to deeper penetration, although there is tough resistance from the monthly pivot and 50-day MA at 1.3030 and 1.3000 respectively, limiting downside.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/EURUSD08.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: upside breakout

 

The EUR/USD pair broke out of the triangle which formed on the hourly charts, rising up to highs of 1.3193. It has now started to consolidate at the level of 100-day MA. It will probably go higher, but the major down-sloping trend-line at 1.3200 provides tough resistance. I would want to see a decisive move above it for a continuation higher, although it would a strong bullish signal if it did, with the next target at 1.3330. I can't see bears getting interested until break below the 1.3030 lows, which seems unlikely in the current scenario.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/EURUSD09.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: up-trend resumes

 

Cable is in a short-term up-trend which has re-asserted itself this morning after a few days of weakness. It seems to be forming a consolidation and rising back up into the range on the hourly chart. It will probably continue rising until it reaches the top of the range at 1.5605, and then from there it will probably even breakout higher to 1.5725. To get bearish I'd have to see a break below 1.5445 lows with the trend-line at 1.5380 affording a downside target for the move.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/GBPUSD09.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bouncing off 200-day MA

 

The mid-term up-trend is still intact in EUR/USD although short-term the pair is stuck in a sideways range. Currently price has broken higher after forming a double bottom at on the 200-day MA at the range lows, and it will probably continue rising within the range to 1.3050. Longer-term a breach above 1.3200 would provide a stronger bullish sign, possibly targeting 1.3445. Alternatively, a break below the 1.2932 lows would target trend-line support at 1.2870, although for a change of mid-term trend this level would have to be broken, targeting first 1.2675 followed by 1.2455 eventually.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/EURUSD14.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: nearing key 1.2870 level

 

EUR/USD broke below the 200-day MA and has started a new leg lower. It will probably now continue to the strong bundle of support at 1.2870, composed of pivots and a trend-line. A break of that level would be required , however, for confirmation of a deeper move, initially to the 1.2745 lows and then probably even to 1.2675. It seems the whole of the move down from February is unfolding in an Elliot wave with the current move lower a final 5th . Any kind of a rebound would need to break above 1.3028 for bulls to get interested.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/EURUSD15.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: up-trend continuing

 

The USD/JPY pair has continued rising after the breakout above the key 100 level and then above the monthly pivot at 100.68. It will probably continue higher until it reaches the target from the ascending triangle at 104.00, which is also the level of the monthly and weekly pivots. Alternatively given the up-move is now overbought, there is now the possibility that we might see a correction, with a move back down to 102.00 possible, or if below that, then back to the monthly pivot at 100.68, subject to confirmation from price itself.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/USDJPY15c.png

[joaquinmonfort]

AUD/USD: close to triangle border

 

The aussie has broken down out of the sideways consolidation range on the weekly chart. It will probably now eventually fall to the lower border of the multi-month triangle at 0.9780, however, it has already reached strong support from the level of the monthly pivot at 0.9830, which could lead to a bounce first, with a move above 0.9920 giving bullish confirmation of a rally, probably to parity, although overall the chart looks quite bearish. A downside breakout from the triangle is a tantalizing possibility now followed by a fall to the target at 0.8100.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/AUDUSD15.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: supported by trend-line

 

Eurodollar has now fallen to support from a trend-line and major pivots at around 1.2860. It is currently consolidating at this level. If it breaks down and closes below the trend-line then it will signal a bearish reversal with a downside target of 1.2450 – although the monthly pivot at 1.2580 is a closer more achievable target. Alternatively a strong move above the 1.2890 highs could signal a bounce with an upside target of 1.2965.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/EURUSD16.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: consolidating on support

 

Cable has broken out of its channel and fallen heavily, although it still has further to go, with the eventual target for the breakout lying down at 1.5035. Currently it is consolidating on support from the monthly pivot at 1.5190. Whilst it may bounce from here temporarily it will probably roll-over eventually and reach the 1.50 target. If there is a bounce from the current level then it will probably stop at resistance from the 50-day MA at 1.5250, before perhaps resuming the down-trend, and a break above the 50-day would be pre-requisite to renewing bullish demand.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/GBPUSD16.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: consolidating in an up-trend

 

The exchange rate is in an up-trend but consolidating again in the 102.50s. It will probably go higher to 104.00, the target generated by the breakout from the recent ascending triangle. 104.00 is also where the weekly and monthly pivots lie. Momentum is a little overbought now however, so it is also possible the current consolidation could extend sideways for longer, or even possibly break-down, with a move below the 101.75 range lows falling to 101.25, followed by the pivots at 100.70.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/USDJPY17.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trend-line broken

 

Eurodollar has broken down and closed below the major trend-line from the July '12 lows, which is a bearish indication. This morning there has been a recovery to 1.2860 but it is unlikely to go much higher as upside is capped by the underside of the trend-line just breached and a thick grouping of pivots and moving averages at 1.2870. The trend-line break suggests there will probably be a stronger move lower, with an eventual target all the way down at 1.2455 although the monthly pivot situated at 1.2580 supplies a nearer, more achievable objective.

 

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/EURUSD20.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: channeling higher

 

The USD/JPY pair is steadily rising in an upward-slanting channel. The target from the triangle breakout lies at 104.00 and forms a probable eventual target. There has been some weakness recently, however, and the pair could continue selling off a little more until it reaches the lower border of the channel at 102.30. At that level, however, it would probably resume the up-trend, rebounding back higher and reaching the top of the channel at 103.50 initially, before the eventual target at 104.00.

 

http://admin.forex4you.com/images/site/analysis/05-13/USDJPY20.png