Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: inverted H&S

 

The USD/JPY pair has broken above the 50-day MA and moved higher towards resistance from the 100.00 round-number level, which is has reached just shy of. There is a possibility the move may be temporarily exhausted, and we could see a correction unfold, although eventually the up-trend will probably resume. If there is a pull-back it will probably come back to the neckline and other support levels around 98.60. The bigger picture remains bullish, however, and a clean break above 100.00 would signal a continuation higher. The large inverted H&S pattern at the lows gives a final target at the 103.72 highs, although the monthly pivot provides a closer target at 102.01.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: major trend-line broken

 

The EUR/USD pair is falling quite rapidly. It has broken out of its sideways consolidation – or bearish flag pattern – and this has coincided with a break of a major trend-line drawn from the July '12 lows which has been touched twice already in March and May of this year but held both times. The break of this major trend-line is significant and generates a target all the way down at 1.2415. Currently it is falling quite forcefully so it will probably continue lower. The 1.2415 target is quite far off, so traders looking for something closer could aim for the monthly pivot at 1.2840. The ECB rate meeting tomorrow could cause volatility and it is still possible we may get a sudden rebound back up to the underside of the trend-line at 1.3002, although this wouldn't negate the break.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: spike higher

 

The GBP/USD pair has risen strongly after better-than-expected data. It has broken above a down-sloping trend-line on the hourly chart and spiked higher. It is consolidating now but will probably rise even higher towards an upside target at the the 1.5280 level, which is also the level where the weekly pivot and the 100-day MA are situated. After that it is possible it may consolidated – before possibly going even higher. The BOE rate meeting is tomorrow and traders may exercise caution ahead of this key release.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: down-trend intact

 

The EUR/USD pair continues falling and the down-trend is intact. The break of the major trend-line from the July '12 lows is now confirmed and constitutes a major bearish signal, opening up an eventual target down at 1.2415. The monthly pivot at 1.2840, however, could slow progress lower beforehand. There has been a sharp drop this morning and then a sort of pennant formation, which will probably trigger a further down-move to 1.2840 or perhaps 1.2775, if there is considerable volatility because of Non-Farm Payrolls released during the U.S session. The most probable outcome is the down-trend will continue. If there is a sudden reversal, however, then it will probably reach 1.3000 and consolidate just below the thick group of moving averages.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: consolidating on a pivot

 

The EUR/USD pair has broken down through a major trend-line drawn from July '12 lows and has reached support from the S1 monthly pivot at 1.2830. It did actually break down through the pivot temporarily, reaching a low of 1.2805, but then recovered back up to its current level. Given the overall strength of the bearish trend the most likely outcome is for the pair to carry on lower. A break below the 1.2805 lows, would probably cause further downside to the next target at 1.2660. The original break of trend also generated an eventual target at 1.2550. Any upside moves would be expected to be capped by the trend-line at 1.2885.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: up-trend intact

 

The USD/JPY continues to rise in a short-term up-trend. It is consolidating currently and could fall back down to support at 100.50, however, given the trend is up it will probably recover and continue rising afterwards. There is strong resistance at 102.10 from the R1 monthly pivot making it the next target higher, and the exchange rate will probably consolidate or fall-back from that level.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: meeting trend-line resistance

 

The EUR/USD pair is still overall in an intact down-trend with a mid-term target at 1.2550 following the break of the major July '12 trend-line. However, it has recently bounced off the S1 monthly pivot and reached resistance from the trend-line at 1.2890. It has pulled-back from there but not convincingly enough and I would rather see a move below 1.2845 swing low to give bearish confirmation. First target down are the 1.2800 lows, followed by 1.2665. A break above the trend-line, however, and above the 1.2900 highs would see a probable run up to an upside target at 1.2965.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: down-trend resumes

 

GBP/USD has resumed its down-trend and given the extreme bearishness of the charts will probably continue lower. If we get a decisive break below the old lows at 1.4830 then it should follow-through to the S2 monthly pivot at 1.4785, probably the next target lower. Since the breakout from the multi-month triangle in February the outlook has been bearish, with a long-term target down at in the 1.30s, however the the lows at 1.4250, (which is also the target for the zig-zag on the weekly chart) provides a closer objective. Any recover bounces would encounter resistance at 1.4960 from the trend-line there, with a break above that required to initiate a more substantial rebound higher.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: correction in down-trend

 

Eurodollar fell on Tuesday and decisively breached the S1 monthly pivot. It has paused to consolidate this morning at the 1.2760 level which is an old low from April and is showing signs of bullishness which could lead to a bounce to as high as 1.2840 temporarily where there is resistance from the monthly pivot and a trend-line. However, the down-trend remains dominant and should eventually resume, taking the pair down towards the next target at around 1.2660, followed by the longer-term target at 1.2550, calculated from the break of the major July '12 trend-line.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: major trend-line supporting

 

The USD/JPY pair has broken down below the trend-line drawn from the mid-June lows and reached another major trend-line drawn from the September '12 lows at 100.00. If we get a decisive break below this line then it will be a very bearish signal and open the way down, first to 99.40 where the 50-day is situated, and then eventually 98.30. Current trend-line support could impede downside, however, and lead to a sideways move unfold along the trend-line, with range highs at 100.50. I would want to see a break below the 99.77 lows ideally for ultimate confirmation of a breakdown, or at least some momentum on the break.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: correction probably complete

 

The EUR/USD pair has spiked higher after Bernanke's doveish testimony. The move went from 1.2770s to a peak of 1.3205 in several hours. It has now pulled back to 1.3040 and a strong support level made up of the 50, 100 and 200 day MA's. The correction is a zig-zag with equal length legs which looks completed, and it is possible we may see the start of another move higher now. The only thing missing is a bullish signal from price action which remains quite ambiguous. The next upside target would be the 1.3205 highs and then if stronger 1.3300. A break below the 1.3000 level, however, would reassert the bearish trend and probably see the exchange rate fall back down to about 1.2850.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: meeting trend-line resistance

 

Cable has spiked higher, reaching the trend-line for the move down. It is currently consolidating and it is not clear whether it has the potential to break clearly above the trend-line or not. If we get a move above 1.5200 then that would provide confirmation of a break and target 1.5295. Alternatively, if the trend-line holds then the pair will probably fall back down towards the 1.4850 lows, although support and resistance at 1.4995 would provide a more immediate target down. Overall the longer-term trend remains bearish, with a target in the 1.30s deduced from the breakout of the multi-month triangle at the highs.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: continuation higher probable

 

Eurodollar has pulled-back into the 50-day MA and a cluster of other support levels. The correction isn't strong and the up-trend is expected to continue. There are no signs it is over yet but we are in the 50 to 61.8% zone where retracements often end. For confirmation I would be looking for a bullish turn in price and a rally evolve higher, back up to the 1.3205 highs, completing the final, leg up. If we see a decisive move below the 1.3000 level, however, then it will probably signal a break lower to around the 1.2850 congestion level.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: pennnant pattern

 

The USD/JPY has formed what is probably a pennant pattern just underneath the 50-day MA. It will probably now break lower, with the possibility of a move unfolding all the way down to support at 97.90. For bearish confirmation I would be looking for a break below 98.60. The monthly pivot and weekly S3 pivots clustered together at 97.90 provide an initial target down, with 97.30 another, and eventually even possibly 96.00, if the pennant full-fills its target. For an upside recovery to take shape, a break above the 50-day would be required– with a move above 99.60 perhaps acting as confirmation – and a target at resistance at 100.60.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: right-angled triangle

 

The EUR/USD pair is unfolding in a right-angled triangle. There is resistance directly above from the 50-day MA and directly below from the old trend-line from the July '12 lows. Given it is a right-angled triangle rather than symmetrical it has a higher probability of breaking down, with a decisive move below 1.3000 signalling a bear move down to a target at 1.2883, followed perhaps by 1.2810. Because the previous move was strongly bullish we cannot discount the possibility of a continuation, with a break above the 1.3079 highs providing a strong bullish signal, to an initial target at 1.3275.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: trend-line supporting

 

The GBP/USD pair has broken above the trend-line for the move down but failed to gain enough follow-through to carry much higher. It has now pulled back to the trend-line again where it is currently finding support. It could resume its move up and eventually reach 1.5435; a break above 1.5134 would be needed to provide confirmation. Set against these bullish signals is the overall long-term bearishness of the chart after the breakout of the multi-month triangle in February, which also generated an eventual target in the low 1.30s. A break back down and continuation lower is also a possibility, and there is a head and shoulders pattern, therefore a move down to 1.4910 is possible, although the monthly pivot at 1.4995 provides an initial target and could slow progress.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: still consolidating

 

The EUR/USD pair has moved slightly higher, although given the lack of momentum and volume we couldn't yet call this a breakout. There is also a shooting star candlestick pattern on the hourly chart and price-action has reached a mini-cycle high, so it is possible the pair will now start to gently move back down to support at 1.3000 to complete the next trough low. A decisive break below 1.3000 generates a downside target at 1.2883 and then old lows at 1.2800. However, if there is a thrust higher, above 1.3100 say, then the next target would be at 1.3155, at a trend-line, followed by 1.3250, however, given the lack of oomph in the 'breakout' so far that seems unlikely at the moment. Longer-term trends are quite equally balanced making it hard to forecast the direction of the next move, however, the right-angled triangle may still prove the correct interpretation, signalling more downside.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: supported by 50-day MA

 

The USD/JPY pair formed a pennant which was expected to break lower, however, this did not materialize in the end and the pair rose instead. After reaching the expected target for the break higher the pair has fallen back down to the level of the 50-day MA again. It will probably consolidate here before resuming its up-trend, which is probably the Elliot 5th wave of the move up from the June '13 lows, and it should eventually re-touch the 101.55 highs. More confirmation of a decisive move higher would come from a move above 100.10. There is a lot of support below price so there is also the possibility it could continue consolidating in-between the 99.30 and 100.00 levels instead – or before – rising.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: progressing higher

 

Eurodollar has moved higher and has now reached the first upside target at 1.3155 and is consolidating against the trend-line situated there, which is providing resistance to further upside. However I expected it will break through this line and continue higher not and a decisive break above the trend-line and the 1.3174 highs would give strong confirmation of a move up to the next target at 1.3250 followed by 1.3300. The less likely alternative is that the exchange rate starts to fall back down to the major support level at 1.3000-50 where three major moving averages are clustered and offering support.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: break of trend-line

 

Cable has broken above a major trend-line drawn from the mid-June highs. This is a significant move which indicates the pair will now most probably rise up to a much higher level at 1.5435, although a nearer-term target lies at 1.5300 where the 50-day MA is situated. Currently the pair is in a sideways consolidation and a rally above the 1.5170 level would provide added confirmation of this expected continuation higher. Alternatively, a move below 1.5045 could see the pair fall to major support at the level of the monthly pivot at 1.5000.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

AUD/USD: harami reversal

 

The aussie formed a textbook harami candlestick reversal pattern at the lows on Monday and then bounced. It has broken out above a trend-line and this is a significant bullish sign, generating a target up at 0.9493, with a break above 0.9260 providing strong bullish confirmation. Price is pulling back now and there is a possibility it might re-touch the trend-line at 0.9180 before it starts rising again. A break back down below the trend-line at 0.9140 would be required to take a more bearish short-term view. Longer-term the trend remains bearish, however, and will probably resume in time, taking us back lower down to an eventual target at 0.8010, generated from a breakout of the multi-month triangle.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trend-line still resisting

 

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating at the level of a downward-sloping trend-line and is unable to break higher. It has pulled back into a cluster of moving averages including the 50 and 200-day MA at 1.3050 - and with the trend-line resisting at 1.3060 there is a possibility the pair may continue to sideways within the boundaries of the two. Since the recent recovery off the 1.2755 lows the up-moves have shown significantly more strength than the down-days which have long down-wicks indicative of underlying strength, so the odds favour a continuation higher. A break above the 1.3175 highs would help give confirmation of such a continuation higher, with an up-target at 1.3300.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: wave 5 extending higher

 

The USD/JPY continues to work itself higher in what is probably the 5th and final Elliot wave up, with an eventual target at the 101.52 highs. It is currently consolidating within this up-trend and forming a triangle. It has found resistance at the triangle's highs and formed a shooting star on the hourly chart indicating it will probably fall back down now towards the pattern's lower border-line at 99.15. After this leg has completed there will probably be a surge higher and breakout as the 5th wave finishes its advance. It would require a break below the 99.00 level to give confirmation of bear move lower, perhaps to support at 97.90, however, this outcome seems unlikely now with the up-trend still intact.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trying to break trend-line

 

EUR/USD has been consolidating underneath the down-sloping trend-line from the June highs but now it is trying to break above. If it successfully rises above the 1.3175 highs that would provide confirmation of a breakout and move up to a bullish eventual target at 1.3300. Alternatively, if it fails to break higher than it is still quite possible that the trend-line could hold and resistance push it back down to the support level from the three major MA's at 1.3030-75.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: consolidating in an up-trend

 

The GBP/USD pair has broken above a major trend-line and started moving higher. This significant bullish event has generated an eventual upside target at 1.5435. There is also a closer target at – or just below 1.5300 – comprised of the 50-day MA and the R1 weekly pivot which has just been met and it is possible the pair may pause and consolidate at this level, with any weakness finding support at 1.5195. Eventually, however it will probably meet its target at 1.5435. After that the broader down-trend may resume, as the longer-term target for the pair remains at 1.2725 – seemingly preposterous I know but a possibility. The target was generated from the breakout of the multi-month triangle.