Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: potential bullish break

 

The EUR/USD pair has now managed to drift above the down-sloping trend-line from the June highs. Technically we have had a daily close above and if it manages to close again today then the break will be valid. This will generate a mid-term up-target at least as far as resistance at 1.3405. The only problem is the lack of volume so far, which would ideally be stronger, however, I'm marginally bullish. On the hourly chart and we can see the pair has reached the upper borderline of a triangle on the hourly chart and now it could either breakout higher, or move down to the lower border at 1.3110. A decisive move above the 1.3205 highs would confirm continuation higher, initially to 1.3300. A move below 1.3100 would probably signal further downside, with an eventual target within the support from three major MA's grouped at around 1.3030-60.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: wave 5 still rising

 

The USD/JPY pair is rising up in what is potentially a final 5th Elliot wave higher of the move off the June lows. It will probably reach to at least the 101.55 highs possibly even to resistance, eventually, at 102.00 from the R1 monthly and the R2 weekly pivots. Currently it has fallen back down to the lower line of the ascending channel but this is probably only temporary and from this area of support it will probably begin another ascent up to maybe 101.30 first followed by the other targets. Downside is less likely as the 50-day MA is supporting at 99.50 and it would require a decisive break below that to change the outlook, with a move then down to 98.30 a possibility.

 

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: break confirmed

 

Yesterday's bullish close confirmed the break of the down-sloping trend-line from the June highs. After the break the pair is now expected to rise to an eventual target at 1.3405, although the R1 monthly pivot situated at 1.3300 is expected to provide substantial resistance as well. Looking at the action on the hourly chart, and we see a more bearish picture: there is a double top pattern forming up against the R1 weekly pivot at 1.3205, and if price falls below 1.3175 it could signal what will probably be a pull-back to perhaps 1.3150 and support from the upper border of the triangle. From there, however, the up-trend will probably resume and move higher again, up to resistance at 1.3300.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: monthly pivot met

 

Yesterday's bullish close confirmed the break of the down-sloping trend-line from the June highs. After the break the pair is now expected to rise to an eventual target at 1.3405, although the R1 monthly pivot situated at 1.3300 is expected to provide substantial resistance as well. Looking at the action on the hourly chart, and we see a more bearish picture: there is a double top pattern forming up against the R1 weekly pivot at 1.3205, and if price falls below 1.3175 it could signal what will probably be a pull-back to perhaps 1.3150 and support from the upper border of the triangle. From there, however, the up-trend will probably resume and move higher again, up to resistance at 1.3300.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: continuing to rise

 

Eurodollar continues to rally higher after the recent break of the down-sloping trend-line from the June highs. It will probably continue up to an eventual target at 1.3405, although the R1 monthly pivot situated at 1.3300 constitutes a nearer target, since it is likely to provide strong resistance to any up-moves. There is also the potential for pull-back into support in the 1.3150 area, although the short-term up-trend would be expected to resume from there.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: recovering after channel break

 

The USD/JPY pair is rising steadily in a channel. The move up from the June lows is probably a Elliot 5th wave which will probably eventually reach to the 101.55 highs at least, or even to resistance at 102.00 from the R1 monthly and the R2 weekly pivots. Recent weakness, however, led to a breakdown out of the underside of the channel. Price has returned back up to about the level of the lower channel line again where it is currently pressing. Given the up-trend is dominant I would expect a decisive move above 100.16 next, which would confirm a move back up within the channel to the upper border at 101.25. However, we cannot ignore the breakdown out of the channel and a relapse below 99.13 would probably continue to support at 97.90.

 

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[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: up-trend continuing

 

The EUR/USD pair has recovered after the recent correction. The short term up-trend remains intact although slightly weakened. It will probably continue higher, reaching first to the 1.3255 level and then possibly the R1 monthly pivot situated at 1.3300. There is, however, a possibility we have a head and shoulders pattern forming on the hourly chart, with the current move up the beginning of the right shoulder. If it rolls over and falls to the neckline at 1.3175, and then there is a break below the neckline then that would lead to a further move down to a target at 1.3100. Volume is weak, confirming the pattern. However, ultimately it is too early to say what will happen and the move up will probably continue given the dominant short-term trend up.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: supported by the 50-day

 

The GBP/USD pair has corrected back down and almost reached the 50-day MA at 1.5275. It is possible it could start to consolidate at this level, although the move down is strong so it could break below the 50, if there is a decisive move down then it would lead to a fall to 1.5175. However, the short-term up-trend is still intact on balance so there is a possibility it could resume and take the pair back up to 1.5435 eventually. A weak close tomorrow would be a very bearish sign because it would form a shooting star on the weekly chart. The longer-term trend is bearish after the break out of the multi-month triangle in January, with a downside target in the 1.30s, and so eventually we could get some strong moves back down again.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

AUD/USD: falling within range

 

The aussie moved higher and temporarily broke above the neckline of the possible inverted head and shoulders pattern but failed to follow through. The exchange rate eventually fell back down strongly, following poor Chinese manufacturing data, and broke the line connecting the head and the right shoulder, negating the pattern in the process. Next we will probably witness a move down to the consolidation lows at 0.9000, particularly if there is a break below the 0.9127 providing confirmation. The longer-term trend remains bearish since the breakout form the multi-month triangle at the highs, generated a downside target at 0.8010. For a more bullish outlook a decisive break above the 0.9317 highs would be required, although this seems less likely now.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: meeting resistance

 

The up-trend has resumed and remains intact, however, it has reached a combination of the R1 monthly and the R2 weekly pivots at 1.3300 and 1.3287 respectively, where substantial resistance is expected to be exerted, probably forcing the pair to consolidate or perhaps even pull-back to the trend-line at around the 1.3250 level. Eventually the pair will probably break above these pivots, however, and rally up to an eventual upside target of 1.3405 where a major trend-line is situated. It is unlikely there will be a major breakdown but a decisive move below the trend-line at 1.3250 would probably lead to a fall to 1.3150.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: direction of short-term trend in question

 

The direction of the short-term trend is in doubt after the breakdown out of the ascending channel. Although this has almost met its target at 98.40 it was a significant sign of weakness. Now the previous lows at 98.23 are are the last real level of support remaining keeping any hope of a bullish recovery alive. If they are breached then we will have a change of short-term trend as a lower high and lower low will be in place. It is also true the exchange rate would quickly run up against robust support at 98.00 and 97.90 from the monthly and S2 weekly pivots respectively, however, these would probably only temporarily hold back the next wave down which would target the major trend-line at round 96.85– and at the beginning of August the monthly pivot will shift. The up-trend is compromised but as long as 98.23 remains intact there is the possibility of a recovery, although the 50-day MA at 99.30 will cap any upside initially.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: meeting the R1 monthly pivot

 

The EUR/USD pair has paused in its up-trend and is pulling-back. It stopped at the 1.3300 level where the R1 monthly pivot is situated and providing resistance. It will probably continue consolidating at this level and then break higher eventually before rallying up to the major trend-line at 1.3405, where it is expected to encounter further resistance. The current consolidation could correct back further before any more upside, however, and has already tentatively moved down below a trend-line on the hourly chart. It will probably fall to support from the lows at 1.3250; and a decisive move below that would target 1.3205, although it is eventually expected to resume its up-trend.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: up-trend still intact

 

The up-trend continues higher. It is now trading above the monthly pivot at 1.5374. Nevertheless it has as good as reached the original upside target generated from the break of the trend-line at 1.5405, and the 61.8% Fibonacci. So we could expect a possible reversal here, however, there is still no bearish confirmation from price. Overall therefore the conclusion must be that the short-term up-trend remains intact and the probabilities favour a continuation higher. The present consolidation will probably eventually break higher, with a decisive move above the 1.5440 highs confirming such a resumption and probably leading to a continuation up to about the 1.5515 level.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

AUD/USD: possible reversal pattern

 

The aussie is still trying to rise above the neckline of a possible inverted head and shoulders pattern at the lows. It is looking more and more like this could be a reversal pattern and that when the exchange rate breaks higher there will be a sudden burst upwards. There have already been quite a few attempts at the neckline and each time they have been repelled. 0.9317 is still the line in the sand, which if crossed could lead to a rise up to the target at 0.9595, however, given the number of false attempts it might be better to wait till the 0.9343 highs have been broken for a clearer green light. A move below the 0.9127 lows would bring into question the veracity of the pattern again and probably lead to a retouch of the lows; and lets not forget the longer-term trend remains down.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trading under the R1 monthly pivot

 

The EUR/USD pair has pulled back after reaching resistance from the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3300. It has fallen to support at around 1.3250 but is recovering and will probably eventually reach the major trend-line at 1.3405. Given the important central bank news out this week it may continue sideways as traders stand aside in the run up to the FOMC on Wednesday and the ECB meeting on Thursday which could provide catalysts for a breakout. A decisive break above 1.3300 would be required for a continuation higher. Despite the dominance of the up-trend short-term a break below the 1.3238 lows could signal a down-turn and probably lead to a move down to the 1.3160s initially.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: pausing at support

 

The USD/JPY has fallen to support from the monthly pivot at 97.95 and an old trend-line. The outlook is bearish short-term and a decisive re-break of the 97.76 lows would probably lead to a move down to 96.88 where the major trend-line from the 2012 lows is located. Upside seems less likely, however, and would require a move cleanly above the support line at 98.35 – with, say a break above 98.58 to provide bullish confirmation, although the 50-day at 99.15 would quickly cap any gains.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: sideways continuation extends

 

The EUR/USD pair is still trading in a sideways move underneath the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3300, however, today is the end of the month so the pivot will change position tomorrow. Given the dominant short-term up-trend which is still in-tact, the pair will probably break higher eventually, with a decisive move above 1.3300 targeting the major trend-line at 1.3405. Today is FOMC day and a substantial amount of volatility will probably follow the meeting. A break below the 1.3233 lows could signal a break lower targeting the 1.3169s initially.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: continuing lower

 

The GBP/USD has broken down heavily through a trend-line and started to fall. The downside target generated from the break of the trend-line is at 1.5168. Price has just reached the weekly pivot at 1.5180 and could potentially correct back from here providing an opportunity to traders to get short again. The 50% retrace of the move at 1.5125 offers another downside target. Such is the strength of the down-move the probabilities favour a continuation lower to the aforesaid targets. Any recovery would probably reach as far as the thick brace of MA's (50 and 100) and the S1 weekly pivot all found together at 1.5285, and would probably remain capped at that level.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

AUD/USD: down-trend resumes

 

The possible reversal pattern at the lows failed in the end and the aussie has broken lower, resuming its bearish trend. It is now below the former 0.8997 lows and has reached a support level at 0.8935. The downside target after the bearish break out is at 0.8780 which is still quite far but provides an eventual expected target. The S2 monthly pivot situated at 0.8900 provides a closer temporary target just for today. The break lower is not much of surprise as the long-term trend was always down, ever since the break out from the multi-month triangle at the highs generated a long-term target of 0.8010.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: sideways consolidation extends

 

The EUR/USD spiked above the 1.3300 pivot level temporarily after the FOMC yesterday, but failed to hold and has fallen back down, and overall the sideways consolidation persists. Next we will probably get a reversal at the range lows (either here or 1.3210) and a move back up to the highs as it extends. There is insufficient evidence the broader up-trend has finished, however, because there are no strong reversal bars at the highs, or bearish candlesticks, or price patterns: the trend-line has been broken three times, buts that's not enough on its own. A breakout below the consolidation lows would be a very bearish signal, with a target at 1.3100. In its absence we must continue to assume the up-trend wholesome. The R1 weekly pivot at 1.3337 is at the new range highs and if it is broken decisively would give bullish confirmation, although the tough trend-line at the key 1.3400 juncture is not far now.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: broadening formation

 

The up-trend may resume; prices have reached strong support from an old trend-line and the monthly pivot at the current 97.64 lows and formed a small broadening formation visible on the hourly chart. This pattern is usually reversal and indicates a break higher up to a target at 99.50. Price has just broken higher out of the pattern already, however, the 50-day MA is at 98.95 resisting further gains. A decisive move above the MA is necessary to confirm the breakout – although at that point there won't be much further to go before reaching the target. There is also the possibility of a bullish continuation up to resistance at the 100.10s. The longer-term up-trend is intact, although we are currently stuck in a consolidation.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: stronger reversal signals

 

There appears to be a broadening formation at the highs. This is a reversal pattern and it is a sign the short-term up-trend could be finishing. A break below the key 1.3164 lows would establish the beginning of peak and trough down and give confirmation of a probable bearish move to about support at 1.3100 and then 1.3025 eventually. With Non-Farm Payrolls expected to surprise to the upside this enhances the bearish outlook – although isn't a technical observation. Of course we could get another up-leg unwind within the pattern as price is currently resting on the lower border, and this might target perhaps 1.3390. Ultimately, however, the presence of the broadening formation tilts the outlook to favouring further down-side, although a decisive break out of the pattern is required for confirmation.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: meeting trend-line resistance

 

The short-term trend is down, although currently the pair has corrected back into the trend-line for the move down as well as a old trend-line from the previous up-trend. This collection of resistance will probably hold and and from here the pair will probably move lower, first to the range lows at 1.5100 and then if these are broken probably to 1.5000-1.4985. There are already strong reversal candlesticks at the highs increasing the chances of a breakdown. The S3 weekly pivot at the 1.5100 lows, however, indicates an oversold state complicating the analysis. The longer-term trend is down, supporting the bearish outlook, however, currently we are in a long-term consolidation on the monthly chart. The possibility of a recovery and a break back up above the trend-lines cannot be discounted with a re-break of the 1.5175 confirming a move up to 1.5250.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trend-line still resisting

 

The short-term up-trend since July remains intact. We are at a key level – because if the 1.3380 (or for the more conservative the 1.3416 highs) is broken, it will signal a change in the short mid-term trend to 'up' and a probable move higher to 1.3508, initially. Strong resistance at the present level from a trend-line originating in 2011 and touching the January highs could, however, successfully resist further upside temporarily. This combined with a possible head and shoulders, on the hourly chart, with diminishing volume on the right shoulder at the current highs may signal the potential for more downside if its neckline at 1.3310 is decisively breached, and a target for the pattern at 1.3240.

 

[joaquinmonfort]

AUD/USD: pulling back

 

The aussie has broken above a trend-line and is unfolding in an expanding wedge formation at the lows which signals the possibility of a reversal of the longer-term trend. The exchange rate has just reached the upper border line of the wedge and found resistance there and started to fall. This level at around 0.9200 also coincides with the R1 monthly pivot and the 50-day MA increasing its significance. The pair has started to fall back down and will probably continue in the short-term perhaps tracing out a pull-back to the monthly pivot at 0.9065. Eventually, however, it will probably rise again. If it breaks out of the wedge at 0.9250 that will give strong bullish confirmation of a move up to 0.9590; a break above 0.9317 would be a further bullish sign.