joaquinmonfort Posted January 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2013 (edited) USD/JPY: trending higher  The USD/JPY is still in a strong up-trend and it will probably continue higher in the absence of any reversal patterns. The next major level of resistance is at 88.00 and price will probably back-off from there as it is also one major long-term target. The first level of support if the pair begins to correct back lies at 86.63, with major support in the 85s. Edited January 3, 2013 by joaquinmonfort Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 3, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2013 EUR/USD: possible breakdown  There has been a break down out of the price pattern at the highs and whilst the pair has recovered, it is probable a trend reversal down may be happening. The monthly pivot at 1.3115 underpins support and would have to be decisively breached to give a stronger bearish signal, with a target first at 1.3080, and then 1.3015. Alternatively it would require a break back above 1.3195 to re-establish a bull trend with the range highs at 1.3300 then targeted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 3, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2013 GBP/USD: downtrend progressing  Cable is currently falling after making a high yesterday, when it formed a bearish pin-headed shooting star; the high volume may also have signalled short-term exhaustion. It has now temporarily broken below the monthly pivot at 1.6185 and it will probably fall further to minor support at 1.6100 and then perhaps 1.6040. We would have to see a break above 1.6215 for the up-trend to resume, targeting the 1.6270 level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 3, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2013 AUD/USD: meeting resistance  The aussie has rebounded strongly and reached resistance at an old trend-line at 1.0520 and since then has been consolidating. It is possible the down-trend could resume, however heavy support at 1.0440 could impede further downside, although a break below that level could see a retouch of the 1.0344 lows. There is a possibility that it could continue higher, with a break above the pivot line at 1.0540 signalling a possible move higher, perhaps to the 1.0585 highs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2013 EUR/USD: downtrend continuation  The exchange rate has broken out the price pattern at the highs and reached its downside target at 1.3015. There are, however, no signs yet of the down-trend slowing and so it could continue to the next level of support at 1.2960, where the 50-day MA is situated. Alternatively, a sideways consolidation may unfold, followed by a bounce perhaps, with a decisive break above 1.3050 then targeting 1.3115. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2013 USD/JPY: more upside probable  The USD/JPY pair is rallying strongly and it will probably go higher. Using the inverted head and shoulders which formed in 2011-12 to give an eventual upside target we get 92.20, whilst the recent measuring gap also indicates the rally has further to go. The monthly pivot at 88.45, however, stands in the way and will probably resist, with the possibility of a pull-back to the 87.30s before the up-trend resumes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 7, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2013 EUR/USD: moving lower  Eurodollar has renewed its down-trend after touching resistance from an old trend-line. It will probably fall further, reaching perhaps down to recent 1.3000 lows and probably even to where the 50-day MA and a major trend-line are situated at 1.2960. Alternatively, a break above the 1.3060s would be necessary for an up-trend to develop, later targeting resistance at 1.3100. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 7, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2013 GBP/USD: consolidation in downtrend  Cable has bottomed temporarily after falling strongly. It is now consolidating in a range. Currently it is moving up in the range with a target at the recent 1.6081 highs or the upper channel line at 1.6090. Overall the outlook is bearish, however, with a continuation likely, first down to the next significant level at 1.6000, and then the 200-day at 1.5900. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 7, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2013 AUD/USD: rangebound  The aussie is trading in a range. Currently it is rising and if it breaks above the 1.0511 highs then it will probably reach the next level of resistance at 1.0522, which if in turn is breached could lead to a move up to the major line at 1.0565. Alternatively a break below the 1.0465 support cluster could indicate a move down to the 50-day MA at 1.0430. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 8, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2013 (edited) EUR/USD: sideways day  The short-term trend is still up after the recent break of the neckline of an inverted head and shoulders and more upside is probable eventually. Today's action, however, is sideways and could continue oscillating. A move above 1.3140 would signal a continuation up to 1.3245, whilst a move below 1.3100 could see a break back down to 1.3050. Edited January 8, 2013 by joaquinmonfort Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 8, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2013 USD/JPY: recovery possible  The USD/JPY pair has pulled-back to support in the 87.30s. Today it is a sideways day. It will probably recover, and a break of the 87.50 highs would confirm a resumption of the up-trend, targeting the monthly pivot at 88.44. A break lower, however, could see a move down to the key swing lows at 86.80. Using the inverted head and shoulders which formed in 2011-12 gives an upside target of 92.20, whilst the recent measuring gap also indicates higher to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 9, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2013 EUR/USD: boxed in  The EUR/USD pair is consolidating in a narrow range today although the mid-term trend remains up. A break above the 1.3093 highs could lead to rally to a tight group of pivots at 1.3120, with a break above those levels necessary for a reassertion of the bull trend. A move below the 1.3055 lows could see a move down to the 1.3000 lows, whilst a major trend-line provides support at around 1.2970. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 9, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2013 GBP/USD: on major support  The GBP/USD pair continues to consolidate on the 50-day MA and the monthly pivot. It will probably carry on in the sideways manner or break out. An upside breakout could see a run up to 1.6100, whilst a move lower would probably run down to the the major trend-line at 1.6000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 9, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2013 AUD/USD: possible ending pattern  Currently the pair is consolidating against tough resistance from a major down-sloping trend-line from the Sep 2011 highs as well as the monthly pivot at 1.0536. This could be an ending pattern and will probably result in a move lower to re-touch the 1.0375 lows or possibly even to the 200-day MA at 1.0295. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2013 EUR/USD: recovery possible  A recovery out the current consolidation is probable, with a move above the 1.3080 highs confirming and leading to a move back up to the cluster of pivots located at 1.3115, or even the support and resistance line at 1.3160. Alternatively a break below the 1.3040 lows could see a move down to the trend-line at 1.3010 or possibly the 50-day MA at 1.2975. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 11, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2013 EUR/USD: consolidation in uptrend  The EUR/USD rallied strongly yesterday. Today we have had some sideways activity. A decisive break above the range highs at 1.3282 would probably see another bullish leg first to the 1.3307 highs and then even higher to 1.3356, as a much higher eventual upside target is expected in the 1.39s. If the range lows at 1.3248 are broken a move lower could reach to perhaps the trend-line at 1.3170. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 11, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2013 GBP/USD: resumtion of up-trend  The up-trend has resumed after the brief period of weakness at the beginning of January, although this morning there has been a pull-back to the 38.2% Fibonacci line. There is a possibility of a deeper correction, perhaps to the 50% line at 1.6085, but eventually the up-trend should resume, with the monthly pivot at 1.6184 as the first target, and a break above that leading to a move up to perhaps major resistance at 1.6370. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 11, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2013 AUD/USD: upside break  The aussie has broken above long-term support at 1.0520 and pushed all the way up to 1.0597. If it can maintain the break then it could rally higher to 1.0680. It has formed a head and shoulders at the highs today, however, and in the short term could pull-back to the 1.0520 line before rebounding. A break back lower would prove the break false and target the 50-day MA at 1.0440 initially. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 14, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2013 EUR/USD: gap up  The gap above the monthly pivot this morning is a bullish sign, however, there is further resistance from the 100 week MA at 1.3385 followed by the 100 month MA at 1.3440, and it is possible price might consolidate at these two levels. Overall, however, more upside is expected after these resistance levels have been overcome, with a possible eventual target in the 1.38-39s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 15, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 EUR/USD: consolidating in up-trend  Eurodollar has rallied up to tough resistance from an old trend-line and the 100 week and 100 month MA's situated at 1.3390 and 1.3415 respectively. It has since pulled back and started consolidating in a range. Overall the bullish trend is intact so a push above the highs and rally to 1.3500 is probable. Alternatively, a move below 1.3330 could see a sell-off down to 1.3270. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 15, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 GBP/USD: rising within a range  Price action is going sideways with upside capped by the monthly pivot at 1.6185 and supported at the lows by the 50-day MA at 1.6070. The expectations would be for the move to continue oscillating within these parameters, rising in its next move to the '185 highs. A more bearish break below 1.5990, however, would give confirmation of a move down to 1.5910. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 15, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 AUD/USD: at long-term resistance  The aussie has reached a major long-term trend-line providing resistance at the highs. The pair appears to be unfolding in a triangle formation. There is also considerable support from a bunch of pivots at the 1.0535 lows too. A move above 1.0600 would confirm a break and result in a strong bullish rally to 1.0680. Alternatively a move below the cluster of pivots could see a reversal down to support at around 1.0475. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 16, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 EUR/USD: meeting support  EUR/USD has fallen heavily to support and resistance in the1.3260s. It will probably fall further, with the nearby 1.3255 level as the next target down where the 38.2% Fibonacci line and the weekly pivot are clustered. This could be the Elliot wave 4 of the up-move and it will probably end soon with wave 5 retouching the 1.3400 highs, although the monthly pivot at 1.3356 provides an initial target higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 16, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 USD/JPY: breaking down  The dollar-yen has fallen from Friday's highs. It has broken below key support at 88.17. RSI and MACD have both given sell signals – a bearish sign. It is in a down-trend so far today and has broken below a trend-line, it will probably continue to trend-line support down at 86.45. A daily close above the monthly pivot at 88.45, however, would be a strong bullish recovery signal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaquinmonfort Posted January 17, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2013 EUR/USD: wave 5Â Â The EUR/USD pair has corrected back to the 38.2% Fibonacci line and then bounced. It is possible the bounce could be an Elliot wave 5 which could re-touch the 1.3400 highs. A decisive break above 1.3325 would provide added confirmation and see a run up to the monthly pivot at 1.3356 and then 1.3400. Alternatively, a move back down to the 38.2% line at 1.3255 is also possible if a range-bound consolidation unfolds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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